Tag: Primary

Cross-posted at Daily Kos under nmlib

Most of you guys are probably aware that Mayor Martin Chavez has been attacking Congressman Tom Udall for a variety of things (most of which seem to come directly from Republican talking points). The only real thing which Chavez seems to be calling attention to which isn't a Republican talking point is his own Hispanic background (which he seems to imply that Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer, as well as Udall himself, are racists). Outside of his overemphasis of his Hispanic heritage (which, by the way, is an explotation of the Hispanic community), the only possible context for his attacks is to sabotage Udall's campaign.

Many of you are probably thinking "this is crazy, why would he purposely do something which will destroy himself amongst the state Democratic party?" The answer is simple, he already has no future in the state.

Let me put Chavez's history in the state into some perspective, he has already lost a statewide election to then-Governor Gary Johnson in 1998. He has always only barely won re-election as Mayor of Albuquerque (Albuquerque does have run-offs, but for some strange reason they only kick in when no candidate reaches 40%).

Here's the story, Chavez feels that he is too good to run for the House in the first district, so that's off for him. Diane Denish is pretty much the favorite to win the primary and general for governor in 2010, so the governorship is gone for Chavez. The only other option would be to wait for 2012 when Jeff Bingaman could possibly retire (as many of you are aware, Schumer pretty much had to beg Bingaman to run for re-election), but my gut tells me that the real reason that Richardson isn't planning to run for this open seat is that he thinks that Bingaman will retire in 2012, so he can still run full-time for president while still having the opportunity to run for the senate later on.

This senate race was probably the last chance for him to advance past being the mayor, and Udall's entrance pretty much destroyed any chance of that. Thus, Mayor Marty has probably decided that if he can't have the seat, he's going to try to bruise Udall up in the primaries as much as possible and attempt to make him a loser in the general.

That's why it is critically important for us to pay attention to these slimy attacks and to make sure that New Mexicans understand that Martin Chavez is a washed-up, vindictive hack. I'd like to give major kudos to Kos, Plutonium Page, and New Mexico FBIHOP for calling attention to Chavez's right-wing (and racist) attacks, as well as a very big thanks to Alex Flores who has not only helped us in drafting Tom Udall for Senate, but continues to help raise money and awareness of Rep. Udall's stellar record as both Attorney General and Representative of New Mexico's third district.

BTW, don't forget to donate to Udall's senate campaign.

Whoa. The latest poll from SurveyUSA on the GOP presidential primary race in California shows Giulani’s lead having shrunk from 20% last month to just 2% a mere 5 days after Fred Thompson’s announcement on Jay Leno. If Thompson can pick off California, we could be moving a lot closer to a deadlocked GOP convention.

Obviously, this is just one poll, and it could be an outlier. All of us regular SSP readers know better than to jump to conclusions just yet. But to go from a 20% lead to a 2% lead with a 4.4% MOE strongly suggests something big could be going on here.

Crosstab analysis below the flip.

Thompson leads by 4% with men, but trails 12% with women. The partisan breakdown by gender is huge here: 63% of the likely GOP primary voters were men. Thompson remained completely flat with women since last month, while Romney gained 8% among women.

Among conservatives (58%), Thompson beats Giuliani 31% to 22% (with McCain and Romney trailing at 17% and 16% respectively). Moderates (33%) strongly go for Giuliani (40%). Thompson gains 8% with conservatives.

Blacks (3%) preferred Thompson to Giuliani 35% to 23%. Thompson gains 20% here, more than double his previous numbers.

Thompson leads by 1% among a crucial GOP voter segment, complete idiots people who think Global Warming is made-up, whereas more sensible GOP voters (relatively speaking here) prefer Giuliani by 5%.

76% of likely GOP voters oppose gay marriage, and they prefer Thompson by 1%

Gun owners prefer Thompson by 2%, the gunless go for Rudy by 7%.

Young voters prefer Rudy, and increasing agge correlates with increasing preference for Thompson.

Here’s a really odd one. Giuliani leads among Bush voters (85%) by 2%. Thompson leads among Kerry voters (7%) by 3%. However, those who think Bush is one of the Greatest American Presidents (26%) prefer Thompson by 2%, and those who think he is one of the worst (18%) prefer Giuliani by 6%.

So, why do we care? If Thompson wins CA and the South, and Romney wins the Mountain West, eastern New England, and gives a strong showing in the Midwest (winning IA, MI, and perhaps some of the Great Plains states), and Giuliani does his thing in the Mid-Atlantic, Illinois, and Swing States like FL, MO, OH, and CO, then we could be headed for a deadlocked contest that goes to the convention for a resolution. This would force the GOP candidates to spend money on the primaries rather than saving for the General election. It would also increase the chances of the GOP’s weakest candidate, Mitt Romney, getting nominated and then crushed by the Democratic nominee in the general.

Michigan Republicans are going ga-ga for native son Mitt Romney, according to the latest ARG poll.

Among 600 Republicans, former Gov. Mitt Romney (at 39%) leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (13%) and former Sen. Fred Thompson (12%) in a statewide primary; Sen. John McCain trails at 9%, former Speaker Newt Gingrich at 7%. All other candidates receive less than five percent each.

(h/t – Pollster)

Analysis below the flip.

If the Republicans nominate Romney, we will win the White House in 2008 easily – every head-to-head matchup shows Romney getting crushed. Do you think a Romney win is far-fetched? Looks at the GOP primary schedule so far (subject to change, obviously):

Wyoming, 1/5: No polling yet, but this is Mormon country. Romney will win here.
Iowa, 1/14: Romney leading by 10% in the latest poll.
Michigan, 1/15: Romney leading by 26%, and was born here.
Nevada, 1/19: Mormon territory. Romney leading by 10%.
South Carolina, 1/19: Trends are pointing towards a win for Thompson, but the most recent poll (ARG) has Giuliani up by 5. I predict Thompson will take it though.
New Hampshire, 1/22: Romney up by 4%

Of course, this will be followed by Florida, which will likely be a big win for Giuliani, and then Maine – the last time Maine was polled was in May, when McCain was still leading in New Hampshire. I think a strong performance in New Hampshire could lead to a Romney win in Maine. That would have Romney racking up double-digit victories in the first 3 contests, winning 5 of the first 6 states, and 6 of the first 8 states.

That’s a pretty strong position to head in to Super Tuesday, isn’t it? Now, granted, Giuliani is likely score major victories on Super Tuesday – California, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, for example, and probably Illinois and Colorado. It could also be a good day for Thompson, with wins in Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, and possibly Missouri and Arkansas (if Huckabee drops). Romney will pick up Utah, and if McCain has dropped out, he could net Arizona as well. With the momentum he’s generated, could it make him competitive in Super Tuesday states that have not been polled (or not polled in the past 3 months) such as Minnesota, Delaware, West Virginia, Alaska, Oklahoma, and North Dakota?

Giuliani will certainly perform well in most of the biggest states in the union: CA, NY, FL, IL, PA, and NJ, with very strong numbers in the mid-atlantic region. Thompson’s powerbase will be in the mighty Southeast. If Thompson draws enough votes to win Virginia, Giuliani might not win enough delegates for a majority. In order to compete with Giuliani, Romney will need strong performances in the remaining 3 areas of the country: New England, the Midwest, and the West.

In New England, he’s leading in New Hampshire, and his connections as former Governor of Massachusetts combined with the collapse of the McCain campaign could help boost Romney over Giuliani. In the West, he has a strong Mormon base in UT, NV, ID, and WY (not to mention being CEO of the organizing committee for the Salt Lake City Olympics), and the latest polling puts him within 1% in Oregon and second place behind McCain in Arizona (New Mexico, Washington, and Colorado look like Giuliani zones for now). That leaves the rather underpolled Midwest – which is where Romney was born and leads in MI and IA. Could IN, MN, and the Great Plains follow suit? If Romney can exploit his midwestern roots (possibly with a little ethanol support added in), a Romney nomination might actually happen. And for us, that’s a Good Thing.

Fred Thompson’s officially in the GOP primary race for President, now, and so far, he’s the clear leader in the heavily Republican South.

Alabama: Thompson 31%, Giuliani 26%, McCain 16%, Gingrich 8%, Romney 3%, Undecided 13% (ARG 7/30-8/2 MOE +/-4%)
Georgia: Thompson 27%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 14%, Gingrich 13%, McCain 7%, Huckabee 3%, Brownback 2%, Paul 2%, Undecided 12% (ARG 8/2-8/6 MOE +/-4%)
Kentucky: Not polled. Borders Tennessee.
Louisiana: Not polled.
Mississippi: Not polled.
North Carolina: Thompson 30%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 12%, McCain 7%, Other 7%, Undecided 23% (PPP (D) 8/1-8/2 MOE +/-4%)
South Carolina: Rudy Giuliani 26%, Fred Thompson 21%, John McCain 12%, Mike Huckabee 9%, Mitt Romney 9%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Sam Brownback 2%, Ron Paul 2%, Undecided 12% (ARG 8/26-8/28 MOE +/-4%) – Note: 3 other polls in August (PPP, Rasmussen, Clemson U) have Thompson leading by 1-4%
Tennessee: Fred Thompson 45%, Rudy Giuliani 15%, Newt Gingrich 11%, John McCain 10% (InsiderAdvantage 3/31-4/1)
Texas: Fred Thompson 25%, Rudy Giuliani 21%, Mitt Romney 15%, Mike Huckabee 13%, John McCain 8%, Ron Paul 5%, Other 8%, Undecided 5% (IVR 8/29 MOE 4.1%) – Note: Past Primary Voters polled
Virginia: Only poll was in February, and Thompson wasn’t even an option.
Arkansas: Only poll was in March, with Huckabee having a massive lead.

Florida, of course, is very different from the rest of the South – latest numbers there (Rasmussen) are Rudy Giuliani 30%, Fred Thompson 17%, Mitt Romney 15%, John McCain 7%, Mike Huckabee 5%.

So far, it looks like Thompson has a well-defined Dixie powerbase, comparable to Romney’s popularity in the Mormon Mountain States (UT, ID, NV, and the unpolled WY) but much larger (Romney also holds IA, NH, and MI so far). Giuliani, however, still holds a massive lead in the Big Blue states (NY, CA, IL, NJ, PA) and swing states like FL, OH, MO, NM, CO, OR, WI, and WA.

The Hill is reporting that Norm Coleman may be facing a primary challenge from one of his former advisors.

http://thehill.com/l…

Minnesota is a Democratic-leaning state and has no real love for the war, but if this is a strong enough primary challenge, Coleman will have to move to the right on the war in order to win a Republican primary, this is defintely a good sign.

In a bit of a surprise announcement during his swearing in ceremony, Illinios House Speaker and Democratic Party Chairman, Michael Madigan suggested Illinois should move up its primary date from Mid March to the first week of February, according to the Chicago Tribune.

More on the flip

The stated purpose for the suggestion would be to help Illinois’ own, Barack Obama gain early momentum in the Presidential Primary race (I guess we ignore Hillary Clinton’s Illinois roots, which is fine by me). 

The secondary impact though is probably the more relevant.  Illinois has always been an afterthought in the presidential nominating process.  It hasn’t played a vital role in the Democratic party’s nominating process in over 20 years, despite its solid blue status and its 21 electoral votes in the general election.

Even if Obama doesn’t gain the nomination, his rumored run may have real impact on Illinois polictics in the future.