Supreme Court Lets Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act Stand

Today, in a very unexpected ruling, the Supreme Court upheld Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act, which requires certain covered jurisdictions to seek “preclearance” from the Department of Justice before making any rule changes that affect voting. Adam Bonin explains:

[M]any conservatives have believed that the rigors of Section 5 preclearance exceeded Congress’ 15th Amendment authorization, given how much time has passed since the days of Bull Connor, and they thought they had their ideal plaintiff in Northwest Austin Municipal Utility District Number One (“NAMUDNO”), created in 1987 to provide waste collection and other public works services to about 3,500 residents.  Before 2004, elections for its board were held in private homes or garages; they wanted to move the elections to public places like elementary schools.  Because they’re in Texas, Section 5 applied, even though there was no evidence that NAMUDNO itself had ever discriminated on the basis of race.

And many liberals feared, especially after oral argument (PDF), that this Court’s 5-4 conservative majority would use the opportunity to gut Section 5, especially given its disparate treatment of Southern jurisdictions, with the Chief Justice asking the NAACP’s counsel “So is it your — is it your position that today southerners are more likely to discriminate than northerners?” and Justice Scalia noting, “Wasn’t Virginia the first State in the Union to elect a black governor?”

Today, however, the bullet was dodged, albeit on somewhat technical grounds.  In an 8-1 opinion authored by the Chief Justice, with only Justice Thomas dissenting, the Court effectively rewrote parts of the Voting Rights Act to allow NAMUDNO to apply in federal court for a permanent “bailout” from the preclearance provisions based on a documented record of behaving itself in this realm, a remedy previously allowed only for states and counties as a whole, and chose not to reach the larger constitutional question.

Leaving aside all the questions about how this ruling came about despite Roberts’ apparent hostility to the VRA, or what its narrow technical nature means for future rulings on the same subject, Rick Hasen explains the political ramifications:

The key political point is that Section 5 will remain in place during the next round of redistricting, and it will be redistricting supervised by the Obama Administration’s DOJ. We have already seen that the Obama Administration appears more protective of voting rights than the Bush Administration’s DOJ. So this will matter a great deal for the next decade of politics in terms of minority electoral success, even if Section 5 is struck down next decade.

In other words, while Justice Roberts and his conservative brethren might dismantle Section 5 at some point, this is a very good ruling for us with the census and the start of redistricting just a year away.

Redistricting Nevada – Si Se Puede!

The consensus is Nevada will have 4 congressional districts after 2010. Here is what it may look like:

Las Vegas area:

# map incumbent White Hispanic Black Asian Native Other
1 Blue no incumbent 29.50% 49.22% 13.74% 5.94% 0.52% 2.08%
2 Green Shelley Berkley 61.75% 17.47% 8.19% 9.23% 0.59% 2.76%
3 Purple Dina Titus 67.84% 16.42% 5.40% 6.82% 1.01% 2.51%
4 Red Dean Heller 70.47% 19.72% 1.89% 3.92% 2.08% 1.91%

A VRA-Hispanic district in Nevada would have been unthinkable 20 years ago but it looks likely in 2010. The fastest-growing demographic in America will almost certainly reach 50% of the 1st district in time for the 2010 census. (hence the title)

The 3rd district, despite its appearance, is mostly an urban-suburban district surrounding Las Vegas. 87% of its population is in Clark County. Most of the existing 3rd district (the propeller, represented by Dina Titus) is in the proposed 3rd district.



The propeller does lose some of its inner parts, possibly its most liberal parts, to the new 2nd district. But by then Dina Titus will have had 4 years to become popular and entrenched, and the Las Vegas region will have had 4 years to become even more liberal. Dina Titus, or whoever represents this district, will have to make some occasional obligatory appearances in the far-flung parts of this district.

Why Chruchill County? Because it had the right number of people. It was the only way to get population equality without dividing any northern counties. Churchill looks like it belongs in the 4th district. In order to do that I could either put part of Elko in the 3rd, or put all of Elko in the 3rd and part of Nye in the 4th.

Any information about what features are in what district (casinos, brothels, Yucca Mountain, Area 51, etc) is welcome in the comments.

DOJ to the Black Courtesy Telephone (South Carolina)

If South Carolina does gain a district, as projected, it will be possible to make that new district a second majority African American one.

Here’s one such map that does this:



(Full Resolution)

Charleston:

Columbia:

The racial demographics of the two districts are:

District 6 (Charleston based):

Black: 341,718 (53.4%)

White: 263,579 (41.2%)

Other (inc. Hispanic): 34,797 (5.4%)

District 7 (Columbia based):

Black: 357,623 (55.9%)

White: 242,185 (37.9%)

Other: 39,613 (6.2%)

Even if the DOJ doesn’t mandate the creation of new African American district, the Republican controlled legislature may want to create one anyway, since it would shore up the 1st and 2nd districts, both of which had strong challenges last year, and take some Black voters out of the 5th, which would go from 32 to 25 percent Black, though it would remain unlikely that they will be competitive there until Spratt retires.

Georgia on my Mind (redistricting)

The following is a bit of a thought experiment. Imagine a Democratic Gerrymander of Georgia that could more or less ignore the VRA, or at least go with the standard of “majority minority” rather than striving for 50%+ Black.  I used Dave’s Redistricting App, with the new population estimates, creating 14 districts.  I was not as aggressive as fitchfan28 and focused my efforts on the Atlanta area leaving South Georgia largely unchanged.

District 1 (Dark Blue):

Not much different from before. Jack “Pelosi is destroying families by making us work Mondays” Kingston will have no trouble here.

District 2 (Dark Green):

Also not much change.  Sanford Bishop’s district continues to be racially mixed, with a narrow White majority.  Perfect for a Black Blue Dog.

District 3 (Salmon):

First of several of the majority minority districts. Southern parts of Fulton County balance out some more conservative suburbs.  Contains some of the Black suburbs as well.

District 4 (Red):

Heart of Atlanta and much of Cobb county.  At little more White than some of the others, but still not a majority.

District 5 (Purple):

The most diverse of all the districts.  Large populations of Whites, Blacks, Hispanics and Asians.

District 6 (Aquamarine):

This district is about 2/3rds White.  It might be more Liberal, being located largely in Fulton and Dekalb counties, it might not be.  I didn’t have political data.  (Anyone familiar with Georgia care to comment?)

District 7 (Gold):

A fairly equal mix of Whites from  and Blacks. Some other minorities, but not as many as the 5th.

District 8 (Light Purple):

I took away Macon, but made it up with Athens.  Only after I drew the lines did I realize that Jim Marshall lives in Macon and may choose to run in the new 13th.  The district is just over 60% White, so there’s enough minorities and Liberals (in Clark County) the Dems might do okay.

District 9 (Cyan):

Very Conservative and White.

District 10 (Pink):

See district 9.

District 11 (Grey):

Conservative Atlanta Exurbs and North Georgia district.  Would be a good landing spot for Tom Pierce, if the 6th is too urbanized now.

District 12 (Light Green):

Not too different from the old 12th, though a little bit blacker. (Now Majority Minority)

District 13 (Periwinkle):

Whites are just under to a majority in this rural and exurban district.

District 14 (Mustard):

Another majority minority district with whites and blacks in close numbers.

Overall, 6 minority districts, which should all go to the Dems, plus Bishop’s Second, which is an easy hold.  The new 8th will be a bit of a struggle but doable and potential pickup in the 6th, depending on how the numbers run.  So a total of 7 – 9 districts out of 14, without any aggressive Gerrymandering.