Culver loses a hypothetical matchup with former Governor Terry Branstad 57 percent to 33 percent, and he loses to Bob Vander Plaats 45 percent to 37 percent. Against Chris Rants and Christian Fong, Culver can’t break 50 percent. He’s ahead of Rants 42-35 and ahead of Fong 42-34.
The last governor to score as low was Branstad. In February 1992, as he grappled with that year’s recession and budget crisis, only 37 percent of Iowans approved of his performance.
The economy was in much better shape by the time Branstad had to face voters in 1994. Culver’s only got a year to turn things around. There’s no guarantee unemployment will be falling by then, especially if President Obama decides to act like Herbert Hoover during the next year. Iowa’s unemployment rate, though low by nationwide standards, is the highest it’s been since the mid-1980s.
The only good thing I can say about this poll is that it may convince conservative Republicans that Vander Plaats can win the general election. During the summer, Branstad looked like a hail-mary pass for the GOP.
UPDATE: I forgot to mention that Research 2000 found much better numbers for Culver a month ago. Either the budget situation has caused his approval to nosedive in the past month, or one of these polls is an outlier. Unfortunately, I wouldn’t bet on a Selzer poll being an outlier in Iowa.
Culver has kept up an optimistic tone, predicting Iowa will emerge from the recession in better economic health than most states. Several key statistics show Iowa’s overall economy and its state government have weathered the tough times better than other states. A report issued last week by the Pew Center on the States ranked Iowa as tied for second among states in terms of fiscal health.
But that message isn’t registering with Iowans.
That Pew report gave Iowa good marks for money-management practices, and put Iowa in the group of states “least like California” in terms of budget problems, but I don’t know how Culver can get that message across. Republicans have simple talking points: budget problems = Culver incompetence.
Conlin narrates the video herself, and it’s mostly a biographical piece. Her parents lived paycheck to paycheck. She worked her way through college and law school.
Conlin was U.S. Attorney for Iowa’s southern district from 1977 to 1981. In this video, she says that as a prosecutor, she “took on drug dealers, corrupt politicians, and corporations who violated the public trust.” She then started a small law firm “to give a voice to everyday people who had none, like taking on the big banks to help family farms at risk of foreclosure.”
Conlin tells viewers, “Taking on the special interests has been the cause of my life,” and she is running for U.S. Senate “to take this fight to Washington.” She promises to help small business and promote renewable energy and other strategies for creating jobs in Iowa.
She doesn’t mention Senator Chuck Grassley directly, but she outlines the case she will make against him. Career politicians in Washington have lost their independence. Iowans were left behind when banks got bailed out and their top executives got huge bonuses. Grassley voted for the Wall Street bailout, which Conlin mentions twice in this video. No doubt we’ll hear more in the coming months about Grassley’s ties to various special interests and his votes for tax breaks companies use when they ship jobs overseas.
Conlin looks at the camera as she delivers her closing line: “Join me in taking on this fight, because the special interests have had their turn. Now, it’s our turn.”
Her campaign logo reads, “Roxanne for Iowa.” I would like to hear from campaign professionals on the merits of branding women candidates with their first names, like the Hillary for president signs and bumper stickers.
Today, Roxanne Conlin filed paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission to enter the race for U.S. Senate and released a video to Iowans. The video can be viewed at
Iowa, a place of quiet resolve. In tough times, overcoming the odds with strength and independence. But somewhere along the way, career politicians in Washington lost theirs.
As the big banks got bailed out and CEOs got outrageous bonuses, we got left behind.
I’m Roxanne Conlin. I grew up right here in Iowa, Sioux City, Clinton and Des Moines. My parents lived paycheck to paycheck, moving from town to town in search of work.
To help our family, starting at fourteen, I worked as a waitress, and then worked my way through college and law school.
When Jim and I married, we had nothing. But we had each other and we built a loving family.
As a prosecutor I took on drug dealers, corrupt politicians, and corporations who violated the public trust.
I started my own business – a small law firm to give a voice to everyday people who had none. Like taking on the big banks to help family farms at risk of foreclosure. Taking on the special interests has been the cause of my life. I’m running for U.S. Senate to take this fight to Washington.
We need a senator who’ll help small businesses in Iowa, not big corporations that ship jobs overseas; fight for relief on Main Street, not more bailouts for Wall Street; and preserve the jobs we have, while also creating new ones with a renewable energy revolution in wind, solar, ethanol, and biomass.
We have the most educated, skilled workforce right here in Iowa ready to turn this economy around.
I’m Roxanne Conlin. Join me in taking on this fight because the special interests had their turn. Now. It’s our turn.
Battling organized crime, corruption and giant corporations, Roxanne Conlin has spent her life standing up to special interests for Iowa families who have been hurt by powerful forces. At an early age, Roxanne experienced personally the hardships many families face. She learned to never give up, no matter what the odds.
Growing up in Iowa, Roxanne’s family lived paycheck to paycheck, moving from town to town in search of steady work. Her father was an alcoholic, who struggled to hold down a job, while her mother tried to put food on the table for their children. The oldest of six children, Roxanne went to work as a waitress at the age of 14 to help the family make ends meet.
At the age of 16, Roxanne entered Drake University – taking on extra classes while holding down several jobs at the same time. Roxanne worked her way through college, graduating at 19 and Drake Law School graduating at just 21 years old. She chose to dedicate her legal career to speaking for those who cannot speak for themselves.
As an Assistant Attorney General for Iowa, Roxanne fought public corruption and wrote the first law of its kind protecting rape victims. Then, as the United States Attorney for the Southern District of Iowa, she worked hand in hand with law enforcement – leading major drug busts and cracking down on violent crime.
For more than 25 years, Roxanne has owned and managed a small law firm in Iowa. Her firm is dedicated to representing everyday people who do not have a voice. She has never worked for a single corporate interest. Instead, Roxanne has chosen to fight for family farmers squeezed by big banks, police officers wronged by the system, and workers hurt by large companies. A successful small business, Roxanne Conlin & Associates was recently cited by a national magazine as one of the best firms to work for because of its family-friendly practices, welcoming the children of staff into the workplace.
With each new milestone – serving as United States Attorney in Iowa, earning the Democratic nomination for Governor of Iowa, being elected as the first woman President of the American Association of Justice, and selected as one of the first women in the Inner Circle of Advocates – Roxanne leaves behind a trail of shattered glass. Through it all, she still sees the world through the eyes of the courageous, everyday Iowan who refuses to give up in the face of overwhelming odds.
Roxanne lives in Des Moines with her husband of 45 years, James. They are most proud of their four adult children and five grandchildren.
According to Chris Cillizza at The Fix, he's got his hands on a memo penned by Mark Kirk agitating for an endorsement from Sarah Palin.
Kirk apparently sent the memo to Republican 'bigwig' Fred Malek, who's been affiliated with Palin for a while.
After noting that Palin will be in Chicago later this month to appear on "Oprah", Kirk writes that "the Chicago media will focus on one key issue: Does Gov[ernor] Palin oppose Congressman Mark Kirk's bid to take the Obama Senate seat for the Republicans?"
Kirk goes on to write that he is hoping for something "quick and decisive" from Palin about the race, perhaps to the effect of: "Voters in Illinois have a key opportunity to take Barack Obama's Senate seat. Congressman Kirk is the lead candidate to do that."
Not sure what Kirk is worried about, as Patrick Hughes seems to be having problems getting his campaign off the ground, but nonetheless Kirk is definitely running to the base as quickly as possible.
At the same time, I’m sure any of the Dem candidates in this race would just love to bring up Kirk being “the candidate of Sarah Palin” or some such thing in the general election.
2006 Senate candidate Ned Lamont announced today that he’s filing papers this afternoon for a possible run for governor in 2010.
Excerpt from his e-mail blast and website announcement:
Since the 2006 campaign for Senate, I have continued to meet with citizens across our state – as co-chairman of the Obama campaign in Connecticut, founder of a state policy institute at Central Connecticut State University, and as an oustpoken advocate for health care reform. I have been constantly reminded during these conversations that Connecticut is not living up to its potential and that too many of our families are still being left behind.
Whether it has been health care and the economy, losing jobs, young people leaving the state, or the never-ending budget crisis, we have all seen our state head in the wrong direction.
Simply put, Connecticut’s current Chief Executive is not getting the job done.
Governor Jodi Rell’s approval rating has come down quite a bit this year, but she’s still at 57 percent approve/38 percent disapprove in the Pollster.com average. Then again, Lamont didn’t shy away from a longshot campaign in 2006, so he may be ready for another challenge.
I’d like to hear from SSP readers who are familiar with Connecticut politics. Could Lamont make a race of this? Would he be the strongest potential challenger against Rell? How would having him in the governor’s race affect Senator Chris Dodd’s re-election campaign?
Like the commercial Culver ran last month, this ad emphasizes that the governor cut spending and his own salary in order to balance the state budget during this recession without raising taxes. I think the ad is well-crafted in terms of script and visuals, but like Bleeding Heartland users IowaVoter and dricey, I am concerned when Democrats rely heavily on Republican anti-tax messaging. Culver may be reinforcing conservative frames and limiting his future policy options if he does win re-election.
Gov. Chet Culver vowed to balance the state budget without raising taxes. And yet a third or more of Iowa school districts might end up raising property taxes as a direct result of the cut to state school aid ordered by Culver.
Is the governor breaking his promise? Well, no. And yes.
When Culver talks about avoiding a tax increase, he really means income and sales taxes – the two major revenue streams for the state. He’s referring to tax increases that he would have to sign into law. In that sense, he hasn’t raised taxes.
But he acknowledges that property taxes are a concern. Culver says he’ll ask the Legislature next year to require school districts to use their cash reserves before raising taxes.
Republicans are already blaming Democrats for the property tax increases many Iowans will experience next year. Their outrage is hypocritical, because the state cuts affecting education and local governments would have been far more severe if not for the federal stimulus bill, which included aid to state governments. Of course, Republicans denounced the stimulus package and bashed Culver for using these federal funds for their intended purpose: to help backfill the 2009 budget.
In any event, Democrats should be wary about staking next year’s campaign on “we didn’t raise your taxes during this recession.” That won’t be a comforting message to Iowans who have to pay a larger property tax bill in September 2010.
I heard it first from Bleeding Heartland user mirage, and now IowaPolitics.com confirms that State Senator Brad Zaun is thinking about challenging Representative Leonard Boswell in Iowa’s third Congressional district next year. Zaun was mayor of Urbandale, a heavily Republican suburb of Des Moines, before winning a hard-fought race in Iowa Senate district 32 in 2004. He was re-elected to a four-year term in 2008, so he wouldn’t risk losing his seat in the upper chamber by running against Boswell.
Zaun said Boswell’s speaking out against cap-and-trade legislation this past summer but then voting for it concerned him and sparked his interest in a run for Congress.
“I’m frustrated because I think Leonard as well as so many other elected officials in Washington, D.C. don’t listen to their constituents and don’t represent where their constituents are on issues,” Zaun said. “Most elected officials in Washington, D.C. are out of touch with people they represent.”
Zaun is vice president of R&R Realty and has not yet formed an exploratory committee for the U.S. House. He said his biggest consideration on whether to run is his family. He and his wife have five kids ages 22, 21, 18, 13 and 11. “I’ve had long, long conversations with my wife,” he said.
IowaPolitics.com also quoted Mike Mahaffey, a former chairman of the Iowa GOP, as saying “he’ll decide by next week whether he will run” against Boswell. He’s been thinking about the race for several months. Mahaffey was the Republican candidate in IA-03 the first time Boswell won the district in 1996. However, the district was quite different then and did not include Polk County.
If this race did become competitive, I think a challenger with a strong base in Polk County, like Zaun, would stand a better chance than someone from one of the smaller counties in the district. Polk County contains Des Moines and most of its suburbs. Mahaffey is from Montezuma in Poweshiek County (where Grinnell College is located). But if Zaun doesn’t run, Mahaffey has the connections to put together a stronger campaign than the two currently declared candidates, Dave Funk and Pat Bertroche.
Commiting to a campaign for the US Senate next year requires more than the confidence that I have the right experience, the necessary support and the resources to be successful. It must come with an understanding that it is the best way for me serve our State and my fellow Iowans in the most effective way possible at this time. I have decided not to run for the United States Senate in 2010. I will continue my work with the Iowa Initiative to Prevent Unintended Pregnancy and will be active in our Party and across the state in issues that affect the quality of life for all Iowans. […]
While I will not be a candidate for office in 2010, never doubt I am committed to a life of service and to Iowa.
So, the mystery challenger Iowa Democratic Party chair Michael Kiernan promised for Grassley is almost certainly Roxanne Conlin, who has said she’s leaning toward running.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see former Governor Tom Vilsack run for the U.S. Senate in the future. I expect Christie Vilsack to run for Congress when Leonard Boswell’s seat (IA-03) becomes open.
According to Bleeding Heartland user mirage, State Senator Brad Zaun is planning to run against Boswell next year. (I am trying to confirm that rumor.) Zaun was mayor of Urbandale, a heavily Republican suburb of Des Moines, before getting elected to represent Iowa Senate district 32 in 2004. He was re-elected to a four-year term in 2008, so he wouldn’t risk losing his seat in the upper chamber by running against Boswell.
“I never thought I’d run again,” Conlin said at her home in Des Moines. “But in my lifetime, I don’t ever want to say, ‘If only I had followed my dream or followed my heart.’ ”
“What has changed for me is Grassley.”
Conlin said she is “more likely than not” running, but first needs to iron out how she would staff a campaign and handle her law practice before making a final decision, which she expects to announce by next month.
She said she talked about running at length with state party chairman Michael Kiernan, who said last month a well-known Democrat was planning to enter the race. “I don’t know how this is going to come together, but I have reached the point where I would like to do it,” she said. […]
Conlin said Grassley’s tone on health care reform at public appearances in Iowa last summer pushed her toward running. […]
Conlin accused Grassley of being disingenuous, noting that he circulated a fundraising brochure stating he was working to defeat “Obama-care,” while continuing to participate in bipartisan negotiations.
“That’s not the Chuck Grassley I thought this state elected, and it really was a watershed moment for me,” Conlin said.
Conlin was the Democratic nominee for governor in 1982, the first year Terry Branstad was elected. Before that, she ran the civil rights division of the Iowa Attorney General’s Office and was the U.S. attorney for the southern district of Iowa.
She founded and was the first chair of the Iowa Women’s Political caucus, and was president and general counsel of the NOW Legal Defense and Education Fund. Most recently, she has been named by the National Law Journal as one of the fifty most influential women lawyers in America, one of the 100 most influential lawyers in America and one of the top 10 litigators.
If Conlin runs, she will be a lightning rod for attacks from Republicans and corporate-funded political organizations. On the plus side, she is a powerful public speaker and may be able to drive up turnout, especially among women voters. She will also be able to raise more than enough money to run a serious campaign against Grassley. Earlier this month, Research 2000 found Grassley leading Conlin by 51 percent to 39 percent among Iowa voters.
It’s a busy Friday in the Iowa governor’s race. Daily Kos released results from a new Iowa poll, Terry Branstad retired as president of Des Moines University, and Governor Chet Culver launched the first television commercial of his re-election campaign.
Research 2000 surveyed 600 “likely voters who vote regularly in state elections.” The poll was in the field from October 12 through 14, and you’ll find full results and crosstabs here. The sample included 32 percent Democrats, 31 percent Republicans and 37 percent independents. That’s a smaller advantage for Democrats than the current Iowa voter registration numbers reflect, though it’s far from clear that last year’s newly-registered Democrats will vote in a non-presidential year. The proportion of independents in the sample might be a bit high for an off-year election, but probably not far off.
Research 2000 compiled favorable/unfavorable ratings for the major candidates for governor. Culver didn’t do much worse than Branstad on this measure: 56 favorable/39 unfavorable for Culver, and 57 favorable/26 unfavorable for Branstad. The majority of respondents did not know enough about State Representative Chris Rants or Sioux City businessman Bob Vander Plaats to express a favorable or unfavorable opinion.
In a head to head matchup, Branstad led Culver, 48 percent to 43 percent. That’s not as big a lead as some Republican-commissioned polls have found. The Research 2000 poll is still good news for Branstad, as it shows him ahead of a sitting governor who crushes the other Republican competition. Research 2000 found Culver leading Vander Plaats 55 percent to 33 percent, and Culver leading Rants 58 percent to 28 percent. The Republicans who recruited Branstad to enter the race had good reason to do so.
Culver can take heart from this poll, because it shows him only a little behind the strongest GOP contender. But the governor has a lot of work to do–he should be leading Branstad by more among women and younger voters, and he needs to improve his numbers with independents. The Republican primary could take a toll on Branstad’s favorability ratings, but Culver will still need to show why he’s been more effective than Branstad as governor.
Speaking of Branstad, he officially retired as president of Des Moines University today, saying he will “fully explore” whether to run for governor again. Somehow I doubt he would ditch a job that pays half a million dollars a year without being absolutely committed to running.
Branstad plans to visit all 99 Iowa counties, but he didn’t say when he will make a final decision or whether he will attend events featuring other Republican candidates. Branstad avoided answering a question about same-sex marriage today. He’ll need an answer ready soon if he’s going to tour the state. He appointed two of the current seven Iowa Supreme Court justices, including the author of the Varnum v Brien ruling on marriage equality.
Branstad didn’t criticize other Republican candidates today, but noted that he has more experience and name recognition than they do. He had harsh words for Governor Chet Culver’s handling of the budget, which he called a “fiscal debacle” (he would know). During his four terms as governor, Iowa’s sales tax and gas taxes went up, but Branstad said today that he cut taxes as well and will be happy to debate his record on taxes. My memory is that when times were tough, Branstad raised regressive taxes, but when times were good, he preferred to cut income taxes, especially for the wealthiest Iowans.
Meanwhile, Culver’s new tv ad touts his move last week to cut state spending across the board by 10 percent in the current fiscal year:
It’s risky to make a virtue out of budget cuts that may turn out to be unpopular. On the other hand, this ad pre-empts Republican charges that Culver didn’t act quickly and decisively to balance the budget.
The line about choosing to rebuild after the floods refers to the I-JOBS state bonding initiative, which includes $165 million for disaster recovery and prevention, along with $100 million to reconstruct flood-damaged buildings at the University of Iowa. Republicans have unanimously denounced the bonding program with misleading talking points and false claims that Iowa is borrowing to pay our bills. The I-JOBS money is entirely devoted to capital investments rather than ongoing spending programs.
The line about investing in new industries alludes to the Iowa Power Fund, which has also drawn Republican criticism. Allocated $25 million in state funding a year for four years, the Power Fund has supported a wide range of projects. Creating it was a high-profile promise from Culver’s first gubernatorial campaign.
“Sources close to [former Governor Terry] Branstad” tell WHO-TV’s Dave Price that Branstad will announce his candidacy for a fifth term as governor this Friday. Whatever the date, it’s obvious Branstad has committed to the race.
Join me after the jump for recent news and unintentional comedy from the Branstad camp.
On Monday Jeff Boeyink resigned as executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa in order to head the exploratory committee Branstad created last Wednesday. Representing the Branstad campaign, Richard Schwarm said Boeyink’s hire “does not signal any change in Terry Branstad’s status as a potential gubernatorial candidate.” However, everyone knows Boeyink would not quit his full-time position with the GOP without assurances that Branstad will enter this race.
Boeyink, 46, had been with the influential Republican-leaning Iowans for Tax Relief more than 20 years, where he worked his way up to president before becoming the state Republican Party’s executive director in February.
Boeyink said his work with fundraising, policy, lobbying and political advocacy for the group would serve him well, should Branstad continue on his path toward a comeback campaign.
“This campaign is going to have tens of thousands of active supporters. Mobilizing them will be very important, should Governor Branstad move forward,” Boeyink said.
Boeyink confirmed today that Branstad will hold a public media availability later this week. He also told Iowa Politics
it was hard to leave the party, but described his new job as a phenomenal opportunity and a dream come true.
“The opportunity to be involved in what potentially will be the most significant campaign in our state’s history — somebody in my profession, it’s something you cannot say ‘no’ to,” Boeyink said.
“Governor Branstad…is somebody that I truly believe in; he’s the first person I ever voted for,” said Boeyink, a father of three who’s the former president of Iowans for Tax Relief. “This is kind of a dream come true, a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity…I’m a true believer, always have been.”
These past few days, the Iowa Democratic Party noticed that the Draft Branstad PAC has continued to advocate for Branstad, in apparent violation of Iowa law:
“Breaking the law at the start of your campaign” said [Iowa Democratic Party Chair Michael Kiernan] “really sends an awful message to Iowans about what kind of leadership you will offer going forward.”
Screen captures indicate the 527 organization group continues to advocate for Branstad by name, even after he filed to become a candidate for Governor six days ago. Iowa election law prohibits so-called “527” groups from engaging in express advocacy on behalf of any candidate or candidate’s committee.
Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board executive director Charlie Smithson, in media reports Tuesday, indicated his agency is on notice of Draft Branstad’s violation of Iowa law and is recommending corrective action be taken.
“Just last week, an exploratory committee was formed for Governor Branstad to possibly seek the governorship.
Today, we have learned that Governor Branstad has asked Jeff Boeyink, a seasoned political operative to join his exploratory committee in an important managerial role.
These two pieces of news are very exciting, and we believe that Governor Branstad will not only be an official candidate for governor, but will also be the next Governor of the State of Iowa.
Thousands of Iowans have joined the Draft Branstad Facebook page, signed the Draft Branstad petition on our website and followed us on Twitter, and Governor Branstad has clearly listened.
With today’s news about Mr. Boeyink, Draft Branstad is officially announcing our draft efforts are complete – a real grassroots mission accomplished!
I have enjoyed meeting and working with young Iowans from all around the state – you are truly the future of Iowa.
Thank you to the thousands of Iowans who have been instrumental in making this effort a success. While Draft Branstad PAC will draw to a close, our efforts will not cease; instead we will continue this movement for change here in Iowa.
Please follow our new organization- NextGenPAC- that will work day in and day out to perfect the change Iowans desire.
We will release more information soon about this exciting new organization that will be focused on bringing about the change so many Iowans want right now in our state.”
In terms of dishonest image construction, “grassroots mission accomplished” is impressive. The Draft Branstad PAC operation was textbook “astroturf” (fake grassroots) fueled by big money. There’s nothing grassroots about the way Republican heavy-hitters wooed Branstad this summer. By the time the Draft Branstad PAC hit the scene in early September, the former governor had probably already decided to run.
Then again, The Daily Show’s writing crew couldn’t have come up with a more hilarious name for Greiner’s new organization than “NextGenPAC.” Branstad last gave off a “nextgen” vibe about three decades ago.
Please share your view of the Branstad campaign in this thread. I added a poll to this post based on a recent conversation with a friend. I think Culver is more likely to defeat Branstad than a Democrat is to defeat Grassley next year. My friend thinks the eventual Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate has a much better chance of beating Grassley than Culver has of beating Branstad. Take the poll and, if you like, explain your vote in the comments.
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