(From the diaries – promoted by DavidNYC)
None of you asked for Maryland, but I wanted to redraw a state in which I couldn’t use townships and incorporated municipalities as a crutch. Four of Maryland’s five largest communities are unincorporated – Columbia, Silver Spring, Ellicott City and Germantown.
Plus, having lived in Maryland for quite awhile, I wanted to do a state that I actually had a local feel for. Lastly, Democrats control both the General Assembly and the Governorship, so no quips about this map being “unrealistic”!
I apologize for the title ahead of time – I’ve seen tourist gear with that slogan one too many times flying out of BWI….
My goals:
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Strengthen Kratovil (1st)
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Pack Republicans into Bartlett (6th)
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Keep all other Democrats at their previous levels or 65%, whichever is lower.
(When you have this many Democrats to protect….)
Anyways, here’s the map (click for full-size version):
Update: I realized I mis-merged some shapes in my GIS and this lead to a misrepresentation of the 1st and 5th in Anne Arundel County. Fixed.
So normally, there’d be a nice map of the state broken up by municipalities and colored in based on McCain/Obama performance. In Maryland, this was harder: I consolidated precincts to match up with Census 2000’s voting tabulation districts (VTDs). Sometimes, in cases where precincts changed significantly, I consolidated some VTDs, too. I’ve creatively named these consolidated VTDs “CVTDs”.
Also, tabulating data by CVTD is a pain in the ass. Seriously. So I only created CVTDs for counties that had a chance of being split. So here’s the map, colored by CVTD for some counties (I wasn’t going to split Calvert, St. Mary’s, the Eastern Shore, or the Panhandle).
District-by-district, here goes (numbers are: Population, Voters, %African American, Obama%, McCain%):
| 1 | 662,203 | 357,190 | 26.89% | 56.48% | 42.11% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anne Arundel | 117,748 | 65,392 | 20.21% | 56.33% | 41.93% | |
| Caroline | 29,772 | 13,218 | 14.77% | 37.61% | 60.64% | |
| Cecil | 85,951 | 42,494 | 3.91% | 41.57% | 56.14% | |
| Dorchester | 30,674 | 15,274 | 28.39% | 45.25% | 53.48% | |
| Kent | 19,197 | 10,020 | 17.41% | 49.43% | 48.95% | |
| Prince George’s | 148,552 | 87,295 | 59.27% | 88.42% | 10.86% | |
| Queen Anne’s | 40,563 | 24,045 | 8.78% | 35.66% | 62.74% | |
| Somerset | 24,747 | 9,924 | 41.10% | 48.16% | 50.76% | |
| Talbot | 33,812 | 20,328 | 15.36% | 44.45% | 54.09% | |
| Wicomico | 84,644 | 41,854 | 23.29% | 46.44% | 52.20% | |
| Worcester | 46,543 | 27,346 | 16.66% | 41.59% | 57.07% |
This is the district we were all wondering about, Frank Kratovil’s 1st. Before, the 1st took in all of the Eastern Shore, a chunk each of Anne Arundel, Harford, and Baltimore counties. Those parts were absolutely brutal, so I removed the the BaltCo (35% Obama)/Harford (33% Obama) parts completely. Additionally, instead of taking in the Republican pats along the North Shore, the district runs through the city of Annapolis proper and into PG County. Yes, the district reaches across the bay, but the old district did this too. Plus now, I can use the Bay Bridge as an excuse, as both ascents to the bridge are in this district now. Obama lost the AA part of the district 39-59, but he won the reconfigured part of Anne Arundel 56-42. We weren’t going to more artfully draw Baltimore, so for Democratic strength, the new 1st looks to Prince George’s County – Obama’s 88-11 performance there anchors this district. Overall, Obama scored 56% here – up a whopping 16%.
| 2 | 662,315 | 309,805 | 25.58% | 60.34% | 37.71% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore | 419,630 | 204,167 | 21.76% | 57.30% | 40.74% | |
| Baltimore City | 143,321 | 56,010 | 42.46% | 79.02% | 19.26% | |
| Harford | 99,364 | 49,628 | 17.36% | 51.75% | 46.08% |
Dutch Ruppersberger’s district doesn’t change much – still the southern half of Harford, an arm across Northern BaltCo, and a section of the city. However, there’s no awkward arm across the Patapsco into Anne Arundel this time. The Harford section is a tad less Democratic, the BaltCo section a bit more, and Baltimore City a bit less. However, the removal of Anne Arundel bumps this district to 60%, up about 0.5%.
| 3 | 662,016 | 356,350 | 18.53% | 60.69% | 37.37% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anne Arundel | 108,683 | 57,529 | 17.90% | 50.80% | 47.30% | |
| Baltimore | 239,472 | 126,645 | 22.89% | 61.92% | 35.97% | |
| Baltimore City | 74,391 | 32,258 | 17.57% | 72.34% | 25.89% | |
| Howard | 239,470 | 139,918 | 14.76% | 60.95% | 37.20% |
Surprisingly, I think this incarnation of the 3rd is less gerrymandered than before – there’s no one-block wide sliver connecting to distinct sections. The major change from before is the placement of almost all of Howard County into this district, which had been located mostly in the 7th. Instead of making a westward facing loop through Baltimore as before to hit Towson, this district makes an eastward facing U. Obama got 61%, up 2% from before.
| 4 | 661,820 | 293,331 | 51.60% | 82.43% | 16.65% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montgomery | 309,396 | 153,066 | 22.75% | 71.41% | 27.28% | |
| Prince George’s | 352,424 | 140,265 | 76.92% | 94.46% | 5.06% |
Donna Edwards’ district also isn’t changed much. A large section of upcounty MontCo and Prince George’s along the DC line. With the 8th shifted northward, the 4th is a bit more Montgomery-heavy, but stays majority African-American. This shift drops Obama’s performance by about 3%, but this is still the most Democratic district in Maryland at 82%.
| 5 | 661,222 | 352,347 | 30.44% | 64.23% | 34.51% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anne Arundel | 79,363 | 47,288 | 5.90% | 43.67% | 54.55% | |
| Calvert | 74,563 | 44,057 | 13.11% | 46.07% | 52.42% | |
| Charles | 120,546 | 70,127 | 26.06% | 62.22% | 36.69% | |
| Prince George’s | 300,539 | 146,466 | 47.72% | 83.78% | 15.20% | |
| St. Mary’s | 86,211 | 44,409 | 13.92% | 42.84% | 55.63% |
Steny Hoyer’s district, again, experiences some minor shifts. It still contains all of the Southern Maryland trifecta of Charles, Calvert, and St. Mary’s. I had thought about cracking Charles to tap its population growth and Democratic trend, but ultimately decided against it. A large chunk of PG is taken by the 1st, so this district expands farther into Anne Arundel. At 64%, this is about a 1% drop.
| 6 | 663,091 | 354,947 | 3.61% | 35.44% | 62.22% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allegany | 74,930 | 29,742 | 5.35% | 35.95% | 61.88% | |
| Baltimore | 50,784 | 32,008 | 1.36% | 32.03% | 65.08% | |
| Carroll | 150,897 | 84,760 | 2.28% | 33.11% | 64.30% | |
| Frederick | 97,113 | 54,983 | 2.06% | 40.21% | 57.86% | |
| Garrett | 29,846 | 12,872 | 0.43% | 29.02% | 69.17% | |
| Harford | 119,226 | 73,667 | 2.53% | 31.04% | 66.35% | |
| Howard | 8,372 | 5,315 | 4.60% | 34.51% | 63.03% | |
| Washington | 131,923 | 61,600 | 7.77% | 42.61% | 55.47% |
We took some Republicans out of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd districts, and this is where they go. I cut out Democratic-trending and sububanizing southern Frederick County and just packed as many deep-red VTDs in here as possible from Harford and northern Baltimore County. The Panhandle and Carroll County remain in their entirety. This drops Dem performance to 35%, down 5%.
| 7 | 661,710 | 265,229 | 55.65% | 72.99% | 25.62% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anne Arundel | 183,862 | 89,411 | 10.02% | 42.84% | 55.09% | |
| Baltimore | 44,406 | 18,118 | 10.72% | 46.90% | 50.51% | |
| Baltimore City | 433,442 | 157,700 | 79.60% | 93.08% | 6.05% |
Before, this district took in a large chunk of Howard County, before reaching into Western BaltCo and West Baltimore. We took the extremely Republican parts of Anne Arundel County out of the 1st, and this was the safest place to deposit them. The anchor of the district stays Baltimore City, which also maintains the 56% African-American composition of the district. At 73% Obama, this is a drop-off of 6%, but again, no cause for concern.
| 8 | 662,109 | 342,398 | 10.92% | 69.23% | 29.27% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederick | 98,164 | 56,203 | 10.62% | 56.77% | 41.56% | |
| Montgomery | 563,945 | 286,195 | 10.97% | 71.68% | 26.85% |
It was tempting to make this district solely Montgomery County, but that’d well, be too clean. (It’d also abandon some strong Democratic votes in Frederick City.) Thus, this takes a bite out of Southern Frederick along 270, and then takes in the western half of Montgomery County and ventures east into Silver Spring. Frederick is nowhere as Democratic as downcounty Montgomery County, resulting in a 5% drop in Obama’s performance to 69%. Even if Frederick’s shift was a one-time thing for Obama, the vast majority of the district is still in Montgomery County.
So I’m pretty sure my map of Maryland is not only better – resulting an improvement for the three most marginal Democratic districts and negligible drops in the other 4 Democratic districts – but less gerrymandered, I dare say. Questions, comments, witty descriptors for what the districts look like, and suggestions always welcome.