Tag: IA-Gov

“Sources close to [former Governor Terry] Branstad” tell WHO-TV’s Dave Price that Branstad will announce his candidacy for a fifth term as governor this Friday. Whatever the date, it’s obvious Branstad has committed to the race.

Join me after the jump for recent news and unintentional comedy from the Branstad camp.  

On Monday Jeff Boeyink resigned as executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa in order to head the exploratory committee Branstad created last Wednesday. Representing the Branstad campaign, Richard Schwarm said Boeyink’s hire “does not signal any change in Terry Branstad’s status as a potential gubernatorial candidate.” However, everyone knows Boeyink would not quit his full-time position with the GOP without assurances that Branstad will enter this race.

From Tom Beaumont’s article for the Des Moines Register:

Boeyink, 46, had been with the influential Republican-leaning Iowans for Tax Relief more than 20 years, where he worked his way up to president before becoming the state Republican Party’s executive director in February.

Boeyink said his work with fundraising, policy, lobbying and political advocacy for the group would serve him well, should Branstad continue on his path toward a comeback campaign.

“This campaign is going to have tens of thousands of active supporters. Mobilizing them will be very important, should Governor Branstad move forward,” Boeyink said.

Boeyink confirmed today that Branstad will hold a public media availability later this week. He also told Iowa Politics

it was hard to leave the party, but described his new job as a phenomenal opportunity and a dream come true.

“The opportunity to be involved in what potentially will be the most significant campaign in our state’s history — somebody in my profession, it’s something you cannot say ‘no’ to,” Boeyink said.

“Governor Branstad…is somebody that I truly believe in; he’s the first person I ever voted for,” said Boeyink, a father of three who’s the former president of Iowans for Tax Relief. “This is kind of a dream come true, a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity…I’m a true believer, always have been.”

Over at The Iowa Republican blog, Craig Robinson speculates about likely candidates to replace Boeyink as executive director of the Iowa GOP.

These past few days, the Iowa Democratic Party noticed that the Draft Branstad PAC has continued to advocate for Branstad, in apparent violation of Iowa law:

“Breaking the law at the start of your campaign” said [Iowa Democratic Party Chair Michael Kiernan] “really sends an awful message to Iowans about what kind of leadership you will offer going forward.”

Screen captures indicate the 527 organization group continues to advocate for Branstad by name, even after he filed to become a candidate for Governor six days ago. Iowa election law prohibits so-called “527” groups from engaging in express advocacy on behalf of any candidate or candidate’s committee.

Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board executive director Charlie Smithson, in media reports Tuesday, indicated his agency is on notice of Draft Branstad’s violation of Iowa law and is recommending corrective action be taken.

By the time Smithson acts, the Draft Branstad PAC will be no more. Sandy Greiner announced plans to wind down the organization in a press release on Tuesday:

“Just last week, an exploratory committee was formed for Governor Branstad to possibly seek the governorship.

Today, we have learned that Governor Branstad has asked Jeff Boeyink, a seasoned political operative to join his exploratory committee in an important managerial role.

These two pieces of news are very exciting, and we believe that Governor Branstad will not only be an official candidate for governor, but will also be the next Governor of the State of Iowa.

Thousands of Iowans have joined the Draft Branstad Facebook page, signed the Draft Branstad petition on our website and followed us on Twitter, and Governor Branstad has clearly listened.

With today’s news about Mr. Boeyink, Draft Branstad is officially announcing our draft efforts are complete – a real grassroots mission accomplished!

I have enjoyed meeting and working with young Iowans from all around the state – you are truly the future of Iowa.

Thank you to the thousands of Iowans who have been instrumental in making this effort a success.  While Draft Branstad PAC will draw to a close, our efforts will not cease; instead we will continue this movement for change here in Iowa.

Please follow our new organization- NextGenPAC- that will work day in and day out to perfect the change Iowans desire.

We will release more information soon about this exciting new organization that will be focused on bringing about the change so many Iowans want right now in our state.”

In terms of dishonest image construction, “grassroots mission accomplished” is impressive. The Draft Branstad PAC operation was textbook “astroturf” (fake grassroots) fueled by big money. There’s nothing grassroots about the way Republican heavy-hitters wooed Branstad this summer. By the time the Draft Branstad PAC hit the scene in early September, the former governor had probably already decided to run.

Then again, The Daily Show’s writing crew couldn’t have come up with a more hilarious name for Greiner’s new organization than “NextGenPAC.” Branstad last gave off a “nextgen” vibe about three decades ago.

Christian Fong offered himself up as a next-generation candidate for governor, complete with campaign coordinators on Iowa campuses. Republican insiders and money men placed their bets on yesterday’s man instead. That’s understandable, but don’t pretend it’s forward-looking.

I expect the Branstad campaign to announce some big fundraising numbers soon, and I wish Iowa Democrats had passed limits on campaign contributions since taking control of the state legislature in 2006.

Please share your view of the Branstad campaign in this thread. I added a poll to this post based on a recent conversation with a friend. I think Culver is more likely to defeat Branstad than a Democrat is to defeat Grassley next year. My friend thinks the eventual Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate has a much better chance of beating Grassley than Culver has of beating Branstad. Take the poll and, if you like, explain your vote in the comments.

P.S.- Radio Iowa has the latest Christie Vilsack comments that have fueled speculation she’s ready to take on Grassley. But the political gossip columnist for Des Moines’ Cityview weekly thinks the mystery candidate is Roxanne Conlin, and Grassley should be concerned.

When Republican power-brokers formed the Draft Branstad PAC last month, I assumed that the entity was a political action committee, as implied by the name “PAC.” However, the Draft Branstad PAC registered with the Iowa Ethics & Campaign Disclosure Board as a 527 committee. The distinction is important, because unlike PACs, 527 groups do not have to disclose their donors and are not allowed to advocate for candidates.

Today the Iowa Democratic Party caught the folks in charge of the Draft Branstad effort running their 527 group like a PAC.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

October 9, 2009

DRAFT BRANSTAD GROUP IGNORES IOWA ELECTION LAW

DES MOINES, IA -The political action group called Draft Branstad, formed to promote Terry Branstad’s candidacy for Governor before he became a declared candidate, is ignoring Iowa ethics law and engaging in express advocacy for Branstad, who became a candidate on Wednesday, Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Michael Kiernan said Friday.

• FACT: Last night Draft Branstad hosted an event at Graze restaurant in West Des Moines.  The event included Branstad campaign paraphernalia and free drinks.  It was paid for by Draft Branstad and apparently the materials came from the same group.

• FACT: Draft Branstad continues to advertise on conservative websites.  Screen captures made Friday showed activity on multiple sites.

“This Draft Branstad group has spent funds directly benefiting the Branstad campaign,” Kiernan said Friday.  “That’s a blatant violation of Iowa campaign ethics law.”  Iowa election law prohibits 527 groups from engaging in express advocacy on behalf of any candidate or candidate’s committee.  

“Branstad should either embrace the spending of this group, since it’s a group designed by him to promote his candidacy, or publicly disavow it,” Kiernan said Friday.

Iowans know better.  They aren’t confused by the tactics being used to avoid both the letter and the spirit of campaign ethics law.  They know Branstad was behind the “movement” to draft him – and he knows why.  This campaign-that’s-not-a-campaign is a mockery of our system of democratic government and a slap in the face to Iowa’s bipartisan tradition of clean elections.

Now, we call upon Terry Branstad to:

1 Call upon the Draft Branstad group to cease and desist public statements and representations in his favor;

2 Disavow any expenditures already made by the Draft Branstad group after Tuesday, Oct. 6;

3 Call for the immediate disbanding of the Draft Branstad group based on Branstad’s decision to become a candidate on Wednesday, Oct. 7.

The leaders of the Draft Branstad PAC should know better than to make this kind of mistake, and Iowans should know better than to elect Terry Branstad again.

Terry Branstad shook up the Iowa governor’s race yesterday when he formed an exploratory committee headed by Mary Andringa, the CEO of Pella’s Vermeer Corporation. (Republican power-brokers tried and failed to recruit Andringa to run for governor earlier this year.)

Election-watchers like the Swing State Project and Campaign Diaries bloggers immediately recognized that Branstad is the toughest potential challenger for Governor Chet Culver. But some Iowa Republicans have doubts about going back to the future:

Drew Ivers, a longtime social conservative Republican leader, said some party activists object to the growth in the state budget during Branstad’s tenure. The budget Branstad approved in 1983, his first year in office, included $2.05 billion in general fund spending. In 1998, his last year in office, he approved general fund spending of $4.5 billion.

“The party needs to get back to the Goldwater definition of conservative: that which governs least governs best,” said Ivers, of Webster City, who is uncommitted in the race. […]

Branstad brings many assets, but not a fresh face, noted Roger Hughes, a longtime Iowa Republican strategist.

“I would be hard-pressed to vote against my friend Terry Branstad, but I think we need some new folks,” said Hughes. “I’m not sure him running is good for the party.”

The Republican primary field will narrow if and when Branstad formally becomes a candidate, but no one dropped out in response to yesterday’s news. Updates on the other Republican gubernatorial candidates are after the jump.

State Representative Chris Rants confirmed what we all suspected: he’s staying in the race, and the Branstad recruitment talk has hurt his fundraising efforts. He also wasted no time in laying out one of the strongest arguments against Branstad: “I think it’s a mistake for Republicans to nominate somebody who ran up budget deficits, played all kinds of financial games and raised taxes.”

Bob Vander Plaats’ campaign spokesman, Eric Woolson, told Charlotte Eby that Vander Plaats is “in the race until the end, and this certainly doesn’t change anything from our perspective.”

State Senator Jerry Behn will wait and see before deciding whether to end his candidacy, which never looked all that credible to me.

State Representative Rod Roberts also is holding off on ending his gubernatorial bid for now. I can’t see a path to the nomination for Roberts even if Branstad decides not to run in the end, but I do agree with one thing Roberts said yesterday: “This is a very different political environment, and it’s a different state and a different country than it was during the years when governor Branstad served.”

Iowa Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley confirmed that he will drop out if and when Branstad becomes a candidate. He noted that the Branstad speculation “put everything in limbo” for other candidates trying to raise money and early support. For what it’s worth, I haven’t seen evidence that McKinley even tried to launch a real campaign.

Branstad’s candidacy puts Christian Fong in an awkward position. He crafted a campaign narrative about restoring Iowa values, but Branstad is the ultimate “restoration” candidate. Fong has tried to make a virtue of his lack of political experience, but his resume looks even lighter when compared to a former governor. He raised some big money in July, but the draft Branstad effort must have hurt his campaign receipts, and his first radio ad may have drained his campaign account.

Speaking to Eby yesterday,

Fong, who has been on a 17-city campaign tour this week, said Republicans should have a choice of candidates.

“It’s not only good for Iowans to have a choice, but it makes for a healthier process to have a good dialogue about the ideas,” Fong said.

Vander Plaats and Rants will be taking the fight to Branstad, but for now Fong is keeping his powder dry. He could play nice in the hope of becoming Branstad’s running mate, but Branstad might already have someone else in mind for that job.

We never did learn who was behind that YouTube claiming there’s no difference between Branstad and Culver. In recent weeks the creator of that piece posted another video on Branstad, set to the “Time Warp” song from Rocky Horror Picture Show:

In addition, this short clip indicates that the Draft Branstad PAC sent a cease and desist letter to creator of the “Terry and Chet” videos:

Final note: if Branstad wins and serves a full term, he will be among the longest-serving governors in U.S. history. However, his 20 years as governor of Iowa would fall just short of George Clinton’s 21 years as governor of New York from 1777 to 1795 and 1801 to 1804.

Because four terms as Governor just aren’t enough:

Former Gov. Terry Branstad filed papers today creating a campaign committee for governor, signaling the beginning of a potential comeback campaign for the Republican and reshaping the race for the 2010 primary election….

Schwarm, who plans to file the paperwork, said it should not be interpreted as a definitive sign that Branstad is committed to running. But veteran Republican strategists see the move as a tacit campaign launch, establishing Branstad as the prohibitive favorite capable of thinning the robust primary field.

Branstad, the current President of Des Moines University, was Iowa’s Republican Governor from 1982 to 1998. You might think that makes him an ancient mummy, but he was only 35 when first elected, so he’s only 62 years old (heck, he probably has another four terms in him). Branstad has polled well, pulling down high favorables and beating current Democratic incumbent Chet Culver in head-to-heads. Polls, however, have also shown a surprisingly low number of people thinking it’s a good idea for him to run again, especially among older Iowans (the ones who actually remember him).

This suggests that while Branstad starts out in strong position, once voters are reminded of the lingering negatives from his administration he may lose some steam. There’s also the little matter of the Republican primary, where it seems unlikely that some of the hard-right candidates (like Bob vander Plaats) will step out of his way. With all this in mind, Swing State Project is changing this race to a Tossup.

RaceTracker: IA-Gov

We can’t walk from one desk to the other over here in SSP World Headquarters without tripping over another new poll that we haven’t written up yet. Let’s take care of ’em in a roundup. All polls must go!

• AZ-Gov/Sen: Arizona GOP Gov. Jan Brewer is not only imperiled in the general election, she’s also extremely vulnerable to a primary challenge, according to PPP. State Treasurer Dean Martin leads Brewer by 37-26, but Brewer manages to come out on top against ex-Gov. Fife Symington by 39-31. However, in a three-way race against Martin and Symington, Brewer comes in last; Symington leads with 34, Martin clocks in at 26, and Brewer only registers at 22%. Ouch.

  And in case you were wondering, John McCain doesn’t have anything to worry about in a primary race: he’s dispatching Minutemen founder Chris Simcox by a 61-17 spread.

• CA-Sen: Everyone’s favorite pollster, Rasmussen Reports, has dipped its toes back in the sunny California surf, and they have some better news for Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer. Boxer leads Carly Fiorina by 49-39 (up from 45-41 in July), and Chuck DeVore by 46-37.
• CO-Gov/Sen: The Tarrance Group, a GOP firm, is out with a new poll of the Senate and gubernatorial primaries in Colorado. For Governor, Scott McInnis leads Josh Penry by 40-13, and Jane Norton has a 45-15 edge over Ken Buck in the Senate race. On the Democratic side, Michael Bennet leads Andrew Romanoff by 41-27.
• IA-Gov/Sen: Rasmussen finds Democratic Gov. Chet Culver in a world of trouble, trailing wingnut Bob Vander Plaats by 43-39, and ex-Gov. Terry Branstad by 54-34. While I don’t doubt that Branstad is ahead of Culver at this point (Selzer says as much), the margins may have more to do with the Rasmussen Effect than anything else.
• MA-Gov: Suffolk came out with their latest poll of the Massachusetts gubernatorial race, and it provides some of the sunniest results for Deval Patrick in recent memory. Despite being saddled with an atrocious 29/56 re-elect rating, Patrick comes out on top of three-way match-ups against Dem-turned-indie Tim Cahill and GOPers Charlie Baker and Christy Mihos. Take your pick: Patrick 36, Cahill 23, Baker 14; or Patrick 36, Cahill 24, Mihos 17.
• MI-Gov: Two polls here; one from Mitchell Research for the Detroit News, and another by IMP/MRG. Mitchell Research finds GOP AG Mike Cox leading Democratic Lt. Gov. John Cherry by a disturbing 45-32 margin. In the GOP primary, Cox beats Rep. Pete Hoekstra and Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, 30-23-11. The IMP/MRG poll has Cherry on top of businessman Rick Snyder by 42-34, but losing to Bouchard by 41-38. Bizarrely, they also decided to pit Cherry and Cox in a three-way race with Andy Dillon, the Democratic Speaker of the MI House, as an independent. In such a match-up, Cox leads Cherry by 35-33, with 13% of the vote going to Dillon.
• NY-Gov/Sen-B: I think I’ve seen more New York polls this year than I’ve seen rats on the Q line. Rasmussen finds the same old story: Andrew Cuomo would face little difficulty in winning the Governor’s office, while Paterson would lose to Rudy and faces a dogfight against Rick freakin’ Lazio, of all people. In the Senate race, incumbent Dem Kirsten Gillibrand leads George Pataki by 44-41.
• OH-Gov/Sen: Rasmussen is seeing Tossups everywhere. In Ohio, Republican John Kasich leads Democrat Ted Strickland by 46-45, while ex GOP-Rep. Rob Portman edges Lee Fisher by 41-40 and Jennifer Brunner by 40-38 in the Senate race.
• VA-Gov: InsiderAdvantage came out with their first take on Virginia’s gubernatorial race, and it’s a tight one: 48-44 for McDonnell. This seems to generally correlate with a growing sense that the race is seeing some tightening (just take a look at that Pollster.com chart), despite us not having any trend lines to mark this one against.

The Republican polling firm Rasmussen Reports surveyed 500 “likely voters” in Iowa on September 22 and came up with bad numbers for Governor Chet Culver. Former Governor Terry Branstad leads Culver by 54 percent to 34 percent, and Bob Vander Plaats leads Culver by 43 percent to 39 percent. Culver’s approval rating is 43 percent, with 53 percent of respondents disapproving of the job he is doing.

Topline results and favorability ratings are here. Culver was viewed very or somewhat favorably by 43 percent of respondents and viewed very or somewhat unfavorably by 50 percent. Branstad’s favorability was 64 percent, and his unfavorable numbers were just 29 percent. Vander Plaats was viewed favorably by 45 percent and unfavorably by 30 percent.

These numbers will encourage Branstad, who appears likely to seek his old job again. He has said he’ll decide by October, and I’ve heard rumors that Branstad will announce his candidacy very soon (September 28 according to one person, October 3 according to someone else). I believe that the numbers we see for Branstad this month will be his high water mark, since no one has campaigned against him for 15 years.

Vander Plaats will surely cite the Rasmussen poll as proof that he can beat Culver. The whole “draft Branstad” movement grew out of fears that Vander Plaats could not win a general election.

As a rule, Rasmussen polls tend to come in with somewhat better numbers for Republican candidates and worse numbers for Democrats. Go to Pollster.com and click on almost any national or state-level race to compare recent results from different pollsters.

The recent Selzer Iowa poll for the Des Moines Register found much better numbers for Culver (50 percent approve, 39 percent disapprove). Selzer polled 803 Iowans over a three-day period (3.5 percent margin of error), while Rasmussen polled 500 “likely voters” on a single day (4.5 percent margin of error). Selzer did not poll Culver against Branstad or any other Republican.

I am seeking further information about the likely voter screen Rasmussen used, as well as the proportion of Democrats, Republicans and no-party voters in the sample. I will update this post if I receive more details. If any Rasmussen premium subscriber is reading, feel free to post a comment here or e-mail me at desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com.

The same Rasmussen poll shows Senator Chuck Grassley leading Democrat Bob Krause 56 percent to 30 percent. Chase Martyn looks at the trendlines and concludes that Grassley could become vulnerable next year. In my opinion, Grassley is still well outside the danger zone for an incumbent despite his falling approval numbers.

Click here for Rasmussen’s results on how Iowans view President Obama, the economy and health care reform proposals.

• MA-Sen: Here’s another academic name popping up in connect with Ted Kennedy’s vacant senate seat. The Center for American Progress Action Fund thinks that Deval Patrick should appoint Harvard prof and Boston-based surgeon Atul Gawande to the post. Gawande is best-known these days for his seminal article this summer in the New Yorker about health-care costs, but he also was a healthcare advisor to Bill Clinton in the early 90s. (D)

Also in the Bay State, Rep. Mike Capuano got a potentially helpful endorsement, from fellow Rep. Barney Frank. Frank’s imprimatur may help Capuano prove his liberal bona fides and win over some voters in the Boston suburbs who may not be familiar with him.

• NH-Sen: Despite Kelly Ayotte’s reputed field-clearing abilities, yet another Republican is adding his name to the list of possible candidates in the New Hampshire Senate race. Real estate investor William Binnie is quite literally from the country club wing of the GOP — he’s owner and president of the Wentworth-by-the-Sea Country Club and owner/driver of an auto racing team. Another suggestion he may be running to the left of Ayotte (although her intentionally amorphous political persona gives no clue about her ideology); Binnie is tight with moderate GOP ex-Rep. Andrew Zeliff, and has given money to Democratic candidates in the past.

• TX-Sen: Rumors out of Texas have Kay Bailey Hutchison resigning her seat at year’s end (on Dec. 31 or Jan. 1) in order to pursue her gubernatorial bid against Rick Perry. Under Texas law, this would lead to a short-term appointment, and then a special election on May 8.

• IA-Gov: Incumbent Dem Chet Culver continues to sport rather good favorables, clocking in at 50/37, but his re-elect numbers may give him some pause (28% say “definitely vote for,” 27% say “consider an alternative,” and 21% say “definitely vote for alternative”). Republican ex-Gov. Terry Branstad, who’s been receptive to the idea of a bid for a return to office, is still remembered fondly by Iowans, with favorables of 59/22. Sen. Chuck Grassley is the state’s best-liked figure, though, with 64% favorables and a 45% “definitely vote for.” (H/t Steve Benen.)

• NJ-Gov (pdf): Neighborhood Research is a Republican internal pollster (they worked with primary loser Steve Lonegan), but they were the first pollster to find Jon Corzine moving back within the margin of error. They’re back with a new poll, showing Corzine still within striking distance, trailing Chris Christie 37-33 (although that’s down from their August finding of 37-35) with Chris Daggett at 6. Meanwhile, Chris Daggett has joined a voter suit challenging ballot ordering in New Jersey, which favors the two major-party candidates.

• PA-Gov: Montgomery County Commissioner and ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel says he’s moving ahead with plans to run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. No formal announcement date is set, but the progressive from the Philly suburbs is starting to staff up, and is bolstered by an internal poll he commissioned through Lake Research, showing him leading the nebulous field at 15%, with Allegheny County Exec Dan Onorato and state Auditor Jack Wagner both at 12, Scranton mayor Chris Doherty at 6, and Philly businessman Tom Knox at 5.

• NY-23: With the 23rd now officially vacant, Dem candidate Bill Owens is the first to put up a TV spot. He stresses his military roots and efforts to generated jobs via the redevelopment of the old Plattsburgh AFB.

• TN-01: Get ready for Roe vs. Davis III in the 1st. Ex-Rep. David Davis, who defeated current Rep. Phil Roe in the 2006 GOP primary and then lost the 2008 GOP primary to him (in this R+21 district), has been publicly blasting Roe’s record.

• NY-Lt. Gov: On Friday, Sept. 11th, New York’s highest court, the Court of Appeals, heard oral arguments regarding David Paterson’s appointment of Richard Ravitch as Lt. Governor. According to reports, Paterson’s camp seemed to have gotten its most favorable treatment to date. Lawyers on both sides, says the NYT, expect a decision within two weeks, which would mean the end of this week or the beginning of next. One possibility is that the court could rule that Republican leader Dean Skelos simply didn’t have standing to sue, which would leave the Ravitch appointment intact. (D)

• NYC-Mayor: Marist finds that Democratic city Comptroller William Thompson, despite a convincing primary win, still trails Independent/Republican incumbent Mike Bloomberg in the general, 50-39 among RVs and 52-43 among LVs. It’s still some improvement for Thompson, who trailed 48-35 among RVs in July.

• Ads: Conservative PAC the Family Research Council has published its own target list for the 2010 cycle: Michael Bennet and Chris Dodd, plus the Missouri and Ohio open seats, in the Senate, and John Boccieri, Steve Driehaus, Parker Griffith, Mary Jo Kilroy, Ann Kirkpatrick, Betsy Markey, Walt Minnick, John Murtha, Glenn Nye, Tom Perriello, and Dina Titus in the House.

SSP is changing its ratings on eight Senate and gubernatorial races:

• AR-Sen: Safe D to Likely D
• CA-Sen: Safe D to RTW
• CO-Gov: Lean D to Tossup
• IA-Gov: RTW to Likely D
• MA-Gov: Lean D to Tossup
• NV-Sen: Likely D to Tossup
• NY-Sen-B: Safe D to RTW
• WI-Gov: Lean D to Tossup

We’ll be posting full write-ups for these changes soon. Our full race ratings charts: Gov | Sen.

The Sunday Des Moines Register published results from its latest Iowa poll. Selzer and Associates surveyed 803 Iowans between September 14 and 16 (click here and scroll down to read the questionnaire).  

50 percent of respondents approve of Democratic Governor Chet Culver’s performance, while 39 percent disapprove. The last Iowa poll for the Register, published in April, found Culver’s approval rating at 55 percent. Culver’s re-elect number continues to drop, which is a bit worrying. In this poll, only 28 percent of respondents said they would definitely vote to re-elect Culver, while 27 percent would consider an alternative and 21 percent would definitely vote for an alternative.

On the other hand, Culver’s approval numbers are still net positive, which isn’t bad given the state of the economy. The right direction/wrong track numbers in this poll are 48/41.

Survey USA has had Culver in net negative territory for most of the year, but it looks to me like that pollster has some kind of negative house effect. The only public polls showing Culver below 50 percent approval this year have been by Survey USA. The Register poll’s approval numbers for Senators Chuck Grassley and Tom Harkin are also more than 10 points above Survey USA’s comparable numbers.

The Register’s new poll may encourage former four-term Governor Terry Branstad to take the plunge, as it shows 70 percent of respondents approve of the job he did as governor. Branstad’s favorability rating is 59 percent, a bit higher than Culver’s 55 percent. Political columnist Kathie Obradovich suggested that these numbers should “incinerate” any doubts Branstad might have about getting back into politics.

I see the results somewhat differently. Today’s numbers are probably Branstad’s high water mark, since no one has campaigned against him for 15 years. Once he becomes a candidate, his real record, as opposed to the Draft Branstad PAC’s version, will get more scrutiny. Yet even today’s poll indicates that just 48 percent of all respondents think it would be a good idea for Branstad to run for governor again (36 percent thought it would be a bad idea).

Among Republicans, 60 percent thought Branstad should run. However, 26 percent of Republicans thought that would be a bad idea. Again, that’s before anyone seriously campaigns against him. I assume Branstad would win a GOP primary by a healthy margin, but he will have to fight for it, and a significant proportion of Republicans won’t welcome his return. Will he be able to count on disappointed party members to vote for him, or activists to volunteer for him next November? He’ll need help to overcome Iowa Democrats’ voter registration advantage, which Branstad never faced in any of his previous elections.

If I were Branstad, the most worrying sign in the Register’s poll would be something else Obradovich mentioned in her column on Sunday:

The former governor’s biggest problem comes from seniors, who are usually dependable voters. Among the 65-and-older set, nearly half think it’s a bad idea for Branstad to run again. Only about three in 10 said it’s a good idea.

It’s telling that Iowans who were adults during the entirety of Branstad’s tenure as governor, and are old enough to remember his predecessor Bob Ray, are the least likely to want Branstad back in politics. In contrast, various polls have indicated that Culver’s support is higher among over-50 Iowans than in the population as a whole. (I didn’t see the age breakdown for Culver’s numbers in this poll.)

Doubts about Branstad are likely to grow when the inevitable negative commercials hit the airwaves, focusing on the Mastercard governor’s two sets of books or his failure to deliver on some key promises made to Republicans.

No wonder longtime political observers like Des Moines Register columnist Marc Hansen and Civic Skinny’s unnamed source think it would be a mistake for Branstad to run for governor again.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

It’s been a while since I posted a diary here about the Iowa governor’s race, so I’m catching up today after the jump.

Governor Chet Culver said this summer that he’d be “cranking up” his campaign operations soon, and last week the governor hired Andrew Roos to run his re-election campaign and Jesse Harris as deputy campaign manager. Jason Hancock has background on Roos and Harris at Iowa Independent.

Republican candidate Christian Fong, a Cedar Rapids flood recovery leader, claims Culver hasn’t done enough on flood recovery (more on that here). Illogically, Fong also opposes the I-JOBS state bonding program, which has allocated $45 million to flood recovery projects in Linn County alone. (Click here and here for a more detailed look at the Obama-like campaign narrative Fong is building.)

The Republican front-runner (for now), Bob Vander Plaats, held a few events around Iowa on Labor Day to officially announce his candidacy. In keeping with his tendency to advocate unworkable policies, he pushed another off-beat idea. Instead of just criticizing Culver’s I-JOBS state bonding program, like every other Republican does, Vander Plaats says that if elected, he would try to pay back the bonds during his first term (you can read the Vander Plaats press release here). State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, a Democrat, and State Representative Chris Rants, a rival Republican gubernatorial candidate, agree that the Vander Plaats idea is unworkable.

Meanwhile, Vander Plaats is promising not to balance his ticket with a less-conservative running mate:

“I’m not looking to balance the ticket with somebody who’s moderate or liberal or who doesn’t believe in those core values like I do,” he said. The core values, he noted, include believing in a right to life and that marriage should be between one man and one woman.

He didn’t mention former Gov. Terry Branstad, but the inference was clear – the former governor chose pro-choice Republican Joy Corning as his running mate.

Lest anyone get too impressed by Branstad’s ticket-balancing, Rekha Basu reminded me recently that Branstad endorsed the inept Jim Ross Lightfoot over the highly capable Corning in the 1998 GOP gubernatorial primary. Also, when one of Lieutenant Governor Corning’s annual diversity conferences included a workshop on workplace discrimination, Branstad sided with an anti-gay crusader who attacked the workshop.

Establishment Republicans have been trying to recruit Branstad since two Republican-commissioned polls taken in July showed him leading Culver in a hypothetical matchup. The Iowa Republican blog’s poll, in the field the first week of July, had Branstad ahead of Culver 53-37. Hill Research Consultants did a poll for the 527 group Iowa First Foundation later in July and found Branstad ahead of Culver 53-34.

Branstad has said he’ll announce in October whether he plans to run next year, but it looks increasingly likely that he’ll jump in. Since he’s not a candidate yet, he can’t raise or spend money on the race. Enter the “Draft Branstad” political action committee that former State Representative Sandy Greiner launched at the beginning of September. They’re collecting signatures on a petition at draftbranstad.com. They’ve been advertising on The Drudge Report, one of the highest-traffic conservative websites. Draft Branstad flyers were distributed at Saturday’s Iowa/Iowa State football game. They’re running a 60-second radio ad statewide. Among other things, the flyers and radio ad praise Branstad for his “fiscal discipline” and balancing the budget. That’s quite the revisionist history lesson.

I’m enjoying the @draftBranstad Twitter feed, which periodically reprises the great one’s profound words: “My passion for our state has grown with every day I have served it.” Branstad 1/13/98″; “This spirit of neighbor helping neighbor is as Iowan as the tall corn we grow.” -TEB 1/9/96

Des Moines Register Marc Hansen wrote last week that “coming back could be the biggest mistake of [Branstad’s] life.” Highlights:

The best Branstad could do in 1994 against fellow Republican Fred Grandy was talk about how Rep. Gopher wasn’t a real Iowan. […]

The further removed from office he gets, the more popular he becomes. In February 1997, not long before Branstad reaffirmed his decision not to run for a fifth term, the Iowa Poll said 55 percent of Iowa adults believed Branstad should not seek another term in 1998. Thirty-five percent said he should. The other 10 percent were unsure.

The minute he wasn’t running, his numbers started climbing.

I don’t even want to get into Richard Johnson, the state auditor who supported Grandy in ’94 because of the way he said Branstad was keeping the books.

Incidentally, Richard Johnson is co-chairing the Vander Plaats campaign. We’ll probably be hearing more from him if Branstad enters the gubernatorial race, as most political observers now expect. For a preview of other arguments rival Republicans are likely to make against Branstad, see here and here.

Branstad didn’t turn up at the Iowa Family Policy Center Action’s fundraiser on September 12, but four others in the Republican field attended. For some reason, State Senator Jerry Behn wasn’t there, despite recently forming an exploratory committee for a gubernatorial bid. Iowa Senate minority leader Paul McKinley didn’t attend the Iowa Family Policy Center’s event either, but that’s par for the course for him since he claimed to be “aggressively” exploring a campaign for governor.

Vander Plaats was on friendly turf at the Iowa Family Policy Center event, easily winning the straw poll with 63 percent of the votes. (Fong and Rants finished a distant second and third.) The Vander Plaats plan to stop gay marriage on day one as governor is a hit with that crowd. Vander Plaats also also promised not to expand gambling and to put representatives for parochial schools and home-schoolers on the State Board of Education.

Rants usually talks about the budget and taxes in his stump speeches, but he adapted his pitch for the Iowa Family Policy Center event, referring to moments of personal prayer as well as his efforts to bring a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage to the Iowa House floor. Rants also

acknowledged that there’s not a lot of space separating Republican candidates on the issues.

But honesty will be important, he said. That might be difficult in the primary, he said, noting that some of the things he’s said in the past few weeks have made some people uncomfortable. He did not give more explanation, but in the past few weeks, he’s called into question Bob Vander Plaats’ portrayal of himself as a CEO who’s been a turnaround artist. Rants released tax returns that appear to show deteriorating finances at a nonprofit organization that Vander Plaats led.

“If we’re going to ask Iowans to trust us,” candidates have to lead by example, he said.

I can’t see any way Rants gets the nomination. I don’t even know of another state legislator who’s endorsing him, which is remarkable given that he used to be Iowa House speaker until the GOP lost the majority in the 2006 elections. That said, Rants is smart enough to know that there probably will be room for only one other candidate if Branstad enters the race. So, he’s been going after Vander Plaats for bad policy ideas as well as his record as CEO and board president of the non-profit Opportunities Unlimited. (I recommend reading the whole comment thread under this story.)

Fong tried to inspire the Iowa Family Policy Center crowd:

Too much debt and too-high taxes are problems; so are abortion and other major issues, he said. But “the critical issue for our cause” is spiritual, he said.

Christ-like leadership is needed, with integrity and compassion, he said. It’s service above self. Voters are hungry for something greater than government and politics, he said.

“A hurting Iowa” needs that leadership, he said.

He called for leadership based on the “political philosophy of Jesus Christ himself.”

State Representative Rod Roberts claimed to have the right leadership qualities for a governor:

He’s been asked, “Rod, Aren’t you too nice to run for governor?” He replies: His two favorite Republican presidents are Abraham Lincoln and Ronald Reagan. They were friendly, civil and respectful, but they also knew what they believed, stood their ground and knew where they were going, he said.

“That’s what leadership is about,” he said.

“A leader is someone who knows the way, goes the way and shows the way,” he said.

Before the gubernatorial candidates spoke, Iowa Family Policy Center head Chuck Hurley previewed his group’s efforts to pass a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage.

“If they don’t see the light, maybe they’ll feel the heat,” said Hurley, who urged supporters of a constitutional amendment to define marriage as between one man and one woman to seek more information at luviowa.com on how to get involved. […]

The goal of the group’s effort is to get all 150 state legislators on the record where they stand on the marriage issue and then “to pressure middle-of-the-road legislators who said they believe in one-man, one-woman marriage to vote that way in January and February,” Hurley said.

He also made a special point to let the audience know that three of the seven Iowa Supreme Court justices who overturned the state’s 1998 defense of marriage act will be up for retention votes on the 2010 ballot. Hurley said it was the justices’ “rogue decision” to allow “counterfeit marriage” that now requires a vote of the people to “rein-in” the judicial malpractice and to “rebuild the moral and legal culture that respects and strengthens marriage rather than tears it down.”

It looks like Hurley’s group is not focusing on the quickest way to amend the constitution: urging voters to approve the ballot initiative calling for a Constitutional Convention. That’s going to be on the November 2010 ballot anyway and, if approved, could lead to amendments being drafted in 2011. Social conservatives may be afraid that Democrats would end up controlling a Constitutional Convention, but if stopping same-sex marriage is such an urgent need for them, they should be pursuing all legal avenues to do so.

I didn’t see whether anyone at the Iowa Family Policy Center’s event mentioned the September 1 House district 90 special election. The Republican Party and conservative interest groups went all-in for that race but came up 107 votes short. Craig Robinson thinks the GOP erred in letting staff from Iowans for Tax Relief run the campaign of Republican Stephen Burgmeier. The Iowa Family Policy Center also delegated a staffer to work on Burgmeier’s campaign.

Share any thoughts or predictions about the gubernatorial campaign in this thread. If you follow Delaware or Virginia politics, feel free to share your thoughts about Andrew Roos.

I am looking forward to the next Selzer poll for the Des Moines Register, which will probably come out during the next month.