Tag: Brad Ellsworth

A slight snag:

Democrats will have to wait until after the May 4 primary to officially pick their nominee to replace Sen. Evan Bayh.

Indiana Democratic Party Chairman Dan Parker, who had said he wanted a candidate quickly, said Thursday that “the sooner rather than later has now become later.”

Parker had hoped to call a meeting of the Democratic Party’s state central committee’s 32 voting members as early as next week. But after party attorneys researched state law, they discovered they could not fill the ballot vacancy until after the primary.

That’s just as well for U.S. Rep. Brad Ellsworth, who said Thursday he needs more time to make a decision.

And it won’t be a problem for U.S. Rep. Baron Hill. Friends said he is interested in exploring a run for Senate, but he has been out of the country on a congressional mission.

The primary, as you are aware, is on May 4th — over ten weeks down the line. For state Democrats who wanted to coalesce quickly around Brad Ellsworth, that creates a bit of an awkward interim period, especially if more Democrats, like Hill, express their interest in the race. After a bit of uncertainty yesterday, Chris Cillizza reports that Ellsworth will indeed enter the race “shortly”. It’s also not yet clear how state Democrats will resolve the uncertainty over the replacement process for Ellsworth in the 8th CD. Will they attempt to withdraw his name from the primary ballot?

UPDATE: Ellsworth has made it official.

LATER UPDATE: Democratic state Rep. Trent Van Haaften has filed to run for Ellsworth’s House seat. Will any strong Republicans follow suit?

EVEN LATER UPDATE: It doesn’t look like the GOP has been able to sneak in a top-tier candidate under the wire in the 8th CD. The Hotline ID’d Gibson Co. Prosecutor Rob Kreig and state Treasurer Richard Mourdock as two GOP candidates considering last-minute bids, but the filing deadline closed at noon local time, and it doesn’t look like either of those guys pulled the trigger. The GOP appears stuck with physician Larry Bucschon — not the worst possible candidate, but far from their ideal choice.

From the Evansville Courier & Press:

U.S. Rep. Brad Ellsworth will run for Senate, and state Rep. Trent Van Haaften will seek his seat in Congress, multiple Democratic sources said Thursday morning. […]

The Indiana Democratic Party’s 32-member central committee will determine Bayh’s replacement. Anthony Long, the party’s 8th Congressional District chairman, said he expected a Ellsworth’s decision this morning. No official announcement has been made.

Meanwhile, Butch Morgan, the 2nd District chairman who also helms the St. Joseph’s County Democratic Party, said bumping Ellsworth and Van Haaften up is the scenario he envisions.

Other Democratic sources close to Ellsworth and Van Haaften would not speak on the record, but confirmed that the two are working out the logistics of the situation now.

Howey Politics Indiana, the crew that broke the story about Dan Coats’ re-entry into the political arena, is also reporting the same thing — with an announcement by Ellsworth apparently set to come down sometime later today.

There’s no question that Ellsworth out-classes his Republican opposition in this race. Dan Coats has been proven to be a pretty flawed candidate — one of the very few GOP candidates that the DSCC has actually been able to land serious and solid hits against all cycle. It remains to be seen, however, whether those flaws will prove to be fatal in a year like this.

As for Van Haaften, he seems to be one of the more solid choices short of Evansville Mayor Jon Weinzapfel, who has already turned this race down. His bio is available here.

UPDATE: Rasmussen is quick to show up on the scene with a bucket of cold water:

IN-Sen (2/16-17, likely voters):

Brad Ellsworth (D): 32

Dan Coats (R): 46

Some other: 7

Not sure: 15

Brad Ellsworth (D): 27

John Hostettler (R): 46

Some other: 7

Not sure: 19

Brad Ellsworth (D): 30

Marlin Stutzman (R): 40

Some other: 9

Not sure: 21

Baron Hill (D): 32

Dan Coats (R): 48

Some other: 6

Not sure: 14

Baron Hill (D): 31

John Hostettler (R): 49

Some other: 5

Not sure: 15

Baron Hill (D): 33

Marlin Stutzman (R): 41

Some other: 7

Not sure: 19

(MoE: ±4.5%)

LATER UPDATE: In what’s probably a sign of increasing coalescence around Ellsworth, state Senate minority leader Vi Simpson, who’d been mentioned somewhere around #4 on the totem pole of potential replacements (behind Ellsworth, Baron Hill, and Jonathan Weinzapfel), has pulled her name from consideration.

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-Sen | IN-08

With Tamyra d’Ippolito’s literal 15 minutes of fame having lasted from about 9 to 9:15 yesterday morning, the question now turns to the vacant Senate slot and which Democrat might get selected by the state party to run in Evan Bayh’s stead. Rep. Brad Ellsworth is sounding very interested (pointing to helping more people by being one out of 100 rather than 435 — oh, Brad… so much to learn about how the Senate functions). He says he’ll make a decision about whether to seek the nod within the next week.

Evansville mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel quickly also appeared on everyone’s short list, but he almost as quickly removed his name from consideration. He also is uninterested in running in IN-08, in case Ellsworth’s attempt at a promotion opens up that seat. (Maybe we need Rahm Emanuel to call him up and ask him if he’s tired of being fucking mayor yet?) Weinzapfel’s interest in a 2012 gubernatorial bid is well-known, so it looks like he’s keeping his eyes on that prize — although if Bayh intends on a gubernatorial comeback, that could certainly interfere with Weinzapfel’s plans. (Hoosierdem has some other lesser names in his diary of other possible contenders who’ve said no.)

So, it looks like the party will be choosing between Ellsworth or fellow Rep. Baron Hill. Campaign Diaries does a side-by-side comparison of their voting records (and those of the other House Dems in the state), finding that both the Blue Dogs’ voting records leave a lot to be desired, although Hill (with votes for health care reform and against the FISA amendments) is somewhat better. A somewhat more progressive option that Taniel points to may be state Senate minority leader Vi Simpson, although it’s questionable how competitive she’d be in the general. One other name floating out there, that wouldn’t open up a competitive House seat, is businesswoman Bren Simon (although it’s unclear where she’d fall ideologically). Her late husband’s estate includes 300 shopping malls and the Indiana Pacers.

Whatever else you might think of Evan Bayh’s douchiness, you do have to give some credit for well-executed timing on his retirement announcement (I don’t know if he actually planned it that way or if he just melted down at precisely the right moment, but either way…). Republicans are fuming both at the national and state level, and John Cornyn is demanding that the filing deadline be extended. Wait, why would Cornyn want that deadline to be extended? That means he wants someone else to get in the race (a certain Mike Pence, perhaps)… does that mean he’s not confident in Dan Coats’ ability to prevail in November?

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-Sen

News that will make you sweat:

Restaurant owner Tamyra d’Ippolito (D) has enough signatures to make the ballot in the race to replace Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), she told Hotline OnCall in a brief interview.

Reached at her home, d’Ippolito said she was on her way out the door to drop off more signatures at the county clerk’s office. D’Ippolito’s backers have until noon to submit 4,500 signatures, including 500 from each of the state’s 9 districts, to the appropriate county clerks.

“To my knowledge, yes we do. There’s people putting in signatures as we speak,” d’Ippolito said when asked if she has the signatures necessary to qualify for the ballot. “The answer is yes.” […]

GOPers, sensing an opportunity, have mobilized in some places to help d’Ippolito make the ballot. In a posting on her campaign website, d’Ippolito says she needs more signatures in the 8th CD, specifically in Terre Haute and Evansville.

Smart play by the GOP here — if they manage to get d’Ippolito on the ballot, they may move this race all the way over to Safe R. That is, unless the Democrats can manage to run a Charlie Wilson-style write-in campaign to get a more viable contender through the primary. In any event, it’s sounding increasingly likely that Brad Ellsworth is the guy that Democrats want on the ballot:

Meanwhile, Dems are increasingly looking to Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) as the candidate they want on the ballot to replace Bayh. House strategists are quietly beginning to prepare for his Senate bid, which means they will have to find another candidate to run in the competitive 8th district.

UPDATE: The Indiana Democratic Party says that d’Ippolito is off her nut:

In an interview with TPMDC, Indiana Democratic Party Chairman Dan Parker strongly denied that cafe owner Tamyra d’Ippolito has obtained the necessary ballot-petition signatures to appear on the ballot in the Dem primary for Senate — disputing d’Ippolito’s earlier claim to have to have obtained the 500 required in each of the state’s nine House districts.

“I am monitoring the situation with our boards of voter registration and our county clerks’ offices. Those are the places where petitions have to be submitted for certification,” said Parker. “They have to be certified in the counties and then brought to the Secretary of State’s office by Friday. As of this moment, other than Evan Bayh, there’s one candidate, who is a Democratic candidate [d’Ippolito], who has 22 signatures statewide.”

LATER UPDATE: Reid says that d’Ippolito has missed the ballot:

An official in Marion Co. (IN) tells Hotline OnCall d’Ippolito turned in just 3 signatures in the 7th CD, the district with the highest percentage of Dem voters. The noon deadline has passed, meaning d’Ippolito failed to meet the requirements to get on the ballot. She would have been required to submit 4,500 signatures, including at least 500 from each of the state’s 9 districts.

This is my first diary, so I hope it is well liked. Evan Bayh has now left us with a challenging job of finding a good replacement for him. Please don’t write off this seat just yet, we do have a good shot. So I will now present my list.

*Brad Ellsworth- Popular Congressman from Evansville, who was voted most attractive member of Congress, and who has thrived in a usual conservative district. He is my top choice, and I would love to see him do it.

*Baron Hill- He is my Congressman, and a damn good one at that. He ran statewide once against Coats and despite all odds came very close to beating him. He made a name for himself by walking across the state. The problem here is that he already has two random primary challengers so his seat would be easily one by Mike Sodrel.

*Joe Donnelley- A representative from Northern Indiana, who one in with the popular wave of other dems in 2006. He ran unsuccessfully for Attorney General in the nineties, loosing the primary.

*Tim Roemer- Former Congressman from South Bend who is now U.S. ambassador to India. He is popular among conservatives and in my view would be a good candidate.

*Jon Weinsapfel- Current popular Mayor of Evansville, who is known as a Washington outsider. Although he seems more interested in a gubernatorial bid in 2012.

*Joe Kernan- The former Governor, who took over when Frank O’bannon died. He was the former Mayor of South Bend. I think he enjoys retirement too much though.

*Joe Andrew- Former DNC chair, who was originally a candidate for Governor in 2004 before Kernan decided to run.

*Bart Peterson- Former Mayor of Indianapolis who was defeated in 2007. I am not from Indy but I don’t think he is that popular there.

*Jill Long Thompson- I hate to mention her but I will anyway. She is a former Congresswoman and undersecretary of Agriculture who had her butt handed to her by Mitch Daniels in 2008.

*Vi Simpson- State Senate minority leader who originally ran for Governor in 2004 before Kernan decided to enter.

*Jim Schellinger- A Indianapolis architect who barely lost the 2008 democratic primary to JLT.

*Joe Hogsett- I heard some people mention him. He is the former SoS. Although he served in the mid nineties.

*Patrick Bauer- The State house speaker who is not that popular, but hey who knows?

I could go on but these are the best I could think of off the top of my head. I really hope it helps. BTW, I HATE EVAN BAYH!!!!!

I would like to hear what you have to say. Who should take Bayh’s place?

Update

Cross Joe Kernan off the list, although I really didn’t think he would run anyway.

Another Update

Also cross Jonathan Weinzapfel off the list, I think he has his eyes on a gubernatorial run or a run for Congress if Ellsworth makes the plunge. Also it looks like Ellsworth is thinking it over at least, his office released the following statement. The Congressman says he will discuss the choice with his wife and family over the next few days before making a decision.        

http://tristatehomepage.com/co…

Sorry yet another update

Thomas McDermott, Jr., the mayor of Hammond and chairman of the Lake County Democratic Party will seek the nomination. Also Bart Peterson is out.

How about Mike Pence? From the Politico:

House Republican Conference Chairman Mike Pence (R-Ind.) will speak with aides this afternoon to discuss whether to jump into the Indiana Senate race. […]

But aides are skeptical he’ll pull the trigger. There are concerns that he publicly passed on the opportunity to run last month, citing the GOP’s strong position in the House. Further, he’s considered among the strongest candidates for governor of Indiana in 2012.

Privately, aides to Pence say he was concerned about Bayh’s $13 million in the bank, but now Pence could be able to “walk into the seat,” according to an aide.

I find it hard to imagine Mike Pence actually doing this — the mechanics seem to be too difficult to pull off with the filing deadline so soon. That said, the rumors are swirling; we’re even hearing some chatter about Gov. Mitch Daniels plunging into the race.

For the Democrats, speculation seems to be centering on current Reps. Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill, ex-Rep. Tim Roemer (the current Ambassador to India), and Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel, who is viewed as one of the party’s leading candidates for the gubernatorial race in 2012. But of course, Democrats may need to make sure that the ballot is clear before getting the opportunity to hand the nomination over to any of these guys. (And, as it stands right now, that’s an open question.) Otherwise, we may be looking at a Charlie Wilson-style write-in campaign.

UPDATE (Crisitunity): So what about Tamyra d’Ippolito, college-town coffee shop owner and erstwhile Senate candidate? TPM contacted her camp and finds that she’s currently 1,000 votes short of the required 4,500, with a particular shortage in IN-08 (she needs at least 500 in each congressional district). Somehow, given the choice between running her or naming their own preferred candidate, I don’t think the party will get actively involved in the efforts to help her to get on the ballot in time. Neither does d’Ippolito: “So I have no idea what they will do, but they have not been cooperative so far,” d’Ippolito added. “It would be nice if they turned around and became cooperative, but I don’t know.”

UPDATE: It’s now sounding like Mike Pence won’t run, despite an hour or two of interest. Chris Cillizza tweets that Pence’s spokesman’s official statement is: “Mr. Pence has filed for re-election to the 6th Congressional District of Indiana.” Which apparently is code for “no.”

LATER UPDATE (James): d’Ippolito’s campaign manager has told Real Clear Politics that their chances of getting all the required signatures are “slim to none”, but that they won’t step aside if they somehow do.

YET ANOTHER UPDATE: Cross former Democratic Governor Joe Kernan off the list; he says he won’t run.

• IL-Sen: South Carolina’s Jim DeMint is rapidly turning into the hard right’s kingmaker. DeMint has been considering offering his endorsement to Patrick Hughes, a real estate developer who’s become the teabagger of choice in the Illinois Senate primary, and Hughes has been buttering DeMint up. And this might help along DeMint’s decision: a straw poll on DeMint’s website asked who he should endorse in Illinois, and 74% said Hughes (with 15% saying “Other” and a whopping 8% saying Rep. Mark Kirk.)

• MA-Sen: Another poll of the Democratic field in the Massachusetts special election — this one for the Boston Globe, by UNH — gives a big edge to AG Martha Coakley, who’s at 43%. Rep. Michael Capuano has to be pleased with his trendline, as he’s up to 22% (the first time he’s broken 20), but with the primary only two weeks away, it seems doubtful as to whether he has the time left to gain much more ground. Stephen Paglicua is at 15 and Alan Khazei is at 6. Capuano may also be helped by a late endorsement, from Diane Patrick, the state’s First Lady. Deval Patrick himself claims that he’s staying remaining neutral.

• CO-Gov: Disappointing news out of Colorado, not just from the standpoint of what would give Dems the best chance but also in terms of pure fireworks — right-wing ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo reversed course and decided to endorse establishment ex-Rep. Scott McInnis in the GOP gubernatorial primary instead of teabagging him to death. Coupled with the decision of state Sen. Josh Penry (McInnis’s former rival in the primary until he got pushed out) to endorse McInnis as well, it looks like McInnis will head into the general against incumbent Dem Bill Ritter without sustaining much (if any) damage.

• MI-Gov: A poll for the Detroit Free Press by Denno-Noor of the gubernatorial primaries shows, for now, disengaged voters. “Undecided” has a big lead in both primary fields. Among the Dems, Lt. Gov. John Cherry leads at 20, followed by state House speaker Andy Dillon at 6, former MSU football coach George Perles at 6, state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith at 2, and former state Rep. John Freeman at 2. Among the GOP, Rep. Peter Hoekstra leads at 21, with AG Mike Cox at 15, Oakland Co. Sherif Mike Bouchard at 13, businessman Rick Snyder at 5, and state Sen. Tom George at 3. They also do a generic ballot test on the state legislature, where Dems lead 25-24; given the sheer number of open seats in the GOP-held state Senate next year, that suggests Dems may still be able to gain some ground there.

• OR-Gov: The fork can pretty much be stuck in the Oregon governor’s race now, as the one Republican who could make the race interesting finally confirmed last Thursday that he won’t run: as most expected, Rep. Greg Walden said he’s running for re-election in OR-02 in 2010. With the GOP down to the dregs — Allen Alley (the losing Treasurer candidate in 2008), long-forgotten ex-state Sen. John Lim, and possibly former ex-NBA player Chris Dudley — all the action looks like it’ll be the John Kitzhaber/Bill Bradbury primary. (Which could get even more interesting if Rep. Peter DeFazio shows up — Chris Cillizza seems to think that DeFazio’s loud anti-Tim Geithner stance may be posturing to try and grab the economic populist corner of the gubernatorial field.)

• SC-Gov: It’s sounding like the SC legislature’s on-again-off-again flirtation with impeaching Mark Sanford is back on; a bipartisan panel of legislators will take up the issue tomorrow. South Carolina’s ethics commission is investigating a whopping 37 charges against the jet-setting Sanford, regarding travel and campaign funding violations.

• AL-07: Here’s a boost for state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr., who’s one of a large field of Democratic candidates in the open seat race in the 7th trying to stand out from the crowd. He got an endorsement from the Congressional Black Caucus PAC. (His father, of course, used to be a CBC member.)

• AZ-08: Republican state Senator Jonathan Paton says that he’s been heavily recruited to run against Rep. Gabby Giffords in the 8th, and is considering it. Little-known veteran Jesse Kelly is all the Republicans have on their dance card so far.

• FL-12: First off, all the usual caveats about internal polls apply. Still, this is a pretty impressive showing, considering the district’s Republican lean and the overall nationwide trends. Democratic Polk County Supervisor of Elections Lori Edwards is leading Republican ex-state Rep. Dennis Ross, 46-42, in a GQR poll taken for her campaign in this open seat race vacated by Adam Putnam. This may show the benefits of name rec; the Lakeland-based 12th’s boundaries closely overlap those of Polk County, so most of its voters are already familiar with Edwards.

• FL-24: Here’s an “oops” on my part from last week: former Winter Springs mayor Paul Partyka is indeed running against Rep. Suzanne Kosmas, but he’s doing it in the Democratic primary, not on the GOP side! I suppose I was confused by his generally Republican-sounding language, which leaves me wondering where he’s going to find any votes, considering that Kosmas is already on the Dems’ right flank (she was an anti-HCR vote last week, for instance). CQ’s story also turns over some stones in the GOP field, perhaps finding some institutional momentum shift away from Winter Park city councilor Karen Diebel, whose fundraising has seemed to stall, to state Rep. Sandy Adams, who’s been picking up key endorsements from other electeds (like state House speaker Larry Cretul).

• IA-04: Iowa Democrats have located somebody to go up against Rep. Tom Latham, whose swing district presents a tempting target but has always managed to escape. School administrator Bill Maske has filed candidacy paperwork.

• NJ-03: Here’s another GOP celebrity candidate who apparently thinks that voting is for the little people. Former Philadelphia Eagles offensive lineman Jon Runyan (who, as his job would suggest, is in fact quite a big person) missed four of nine general elections between 2000 and 2008, and only registered as a Republican this month.

• NY-23: Doug Hoffman is doing his best to turn into the GOP’s version of Christine Jennings, trying to decide whether or not to challenge the election results from the 23rd. Any challenge would presumably target the voting machine failures in St. Lawrence County.

• SC-04: More Jim DeMint news: he won’t be endorsing or helping Rep. Bob Inglis, who holds the unusual distinction of having held SC-04 both before and after DeMint. Inglis, who probably is the person most likely to be teabagged to death next year, is facing at least two tough primary opponents and has been making increasingly moderate noises.

• Ads: The SEIU is coming to the defense of eight House members, spending $1 million on TV spots thanking them for backing health care reform: Baron Hill, Dina Titus, Paul Hodes, Earl Pomeroy, Tom Perriello, Mike Michaud, Brad Ellsworth, and Joe Donnelly.

• Census: Here’s an interesting idea; the Census is a “strange beneficiary” of the recession, and may even help briefly improve job numbers. In 2000, hiring for the Census was a big problem when the economy was healthy; this year, they’re having no recruitment problems for the one million temporary jobs they’ll need to fill this spring.

• CO-Sen, CO-07: An interesting move in Colorado, where Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier dropped his Senate bid (which was plausible when other Republicans weren’t interested in the race, but relegated to longshot status when his fundraising stalled and ex-Lt. Gov. Jane Norton got into the field). Instead, he’ll be getting into the CO-07 race against sophomore Dem Rep. Ed Perlmutter. In some ways, that’ll be a harder general election — at D+4, the 7th is more Democratic than the state as a whole, and Perlmutter got 63% in his 2008 re-election — but this way he’ll at least make it into the general election, which will help raise the 32-year-old Frazier’s profile for future efforts.

• CT-Sen: How sadly transparent a play to the party’s base is this? Ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, who in the two years prior to his 2006 defeat was the 5th most liberal Republican in the House, is now a teabagger. He says he’s attached an actual bag of tea to his pocket copy of the Constitution.

• FL-Sen: In an effort to have no more George LeMieuxs, there’s a bipartisan effort afoot in the Florida state legislature to change the law so that Senate vacancies in Florida will be filled by fast special election rather than by appointment. State Sen. Paula Dockery, who may be running for Governor soon, is the Republican co-sponsor.

• IL-Sen: David Hoffman, the former Inspector General of Chicago (and frequent monkeywrench in that city’s machine), has released an internal poll showing that state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, while starting with a sizable lead, doesn’t have a mortal lock on the Democratic Senate nomination. Hoffman’s poll finds Giannoulias at 26%, with former Chicago Urban League head Cheryle Jackson at 12 and Hoffman at 7, leaving 55% undecided. On the GOP side of the aisle, Mark Kirk continues to shuffle to the right as he faces some competition in his own primary: he continues to defend his flip-flop on the cap-and-trade vote that he voted for in the House and would vote against in the Senate, but also says that he’d keep in place the military’s Don’t Ask Don’t Tell policy, saying “Keeping that all out of the workplace makes common sense.”

• MA-Sen: In case there was any doubt AG Martha Coakley was running under the mantle of the establishment’s candidate, she unleashed a torrent of endorsements yesterday, including about half of the state legislature (78 representatives and 16 senators, including both chambers’ leaders), as well as many mayors and labor unions.

• MO-Sen: Joe Biden continues to ramp up his fundraising efforts on behalf of 2010 candidates; he’ll be appearing at a Robin Carnahan fundraiser in St. Louis tomorrow. And on Friday, he’ll appear in Nevada with Harry Reid to tout the stimulus.

• NV-Sen, Gov: On the off chance that John Ensign decides to spare us all the embarrassment and resign before 2010, Gov. Jim Gibbons says that he wouldn’t appoint former AG Brian Sandoval to the job (despite that getting Sandoval out of the way would make his own chances of surviving the gubernatorial primary somewhat better). Gibbons also says he wouldn’t appoint himself (since that would just mean likely defeat in the primary in the ensuing 2010 special election).

• OH-Sen: Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher picked up an endorsement from Rep. John Boccieri of the Canton-area 16th District today. Boccieri joins Tim Ryan, Zack Space, and Charlie Wilson in endorsing Fisher in the Dem primary; the remaining six Dems in the state’s delegation haven’t picked sides yet.

• OR-Gov: Not one but three possible new entrants in the Oregon gubernatorial race, although I can’t see any of them getting anywhere. On the Dem side, former Hewlett-Packard executive Steve Shields says he’ll announce on Thursday that he’s getting into the Democratic primary field. He wasn’t at the Carly Fiorina levels of management (which, uh, may actually be a good thing) and doesn’t bring a personal fortune to the race, but he has hired some pricey staffers already. On the GOP side, very large, very slow, very white former Portland Trail Blazers center Chris Dudley is interested in the race (after having declined the NRCC to run in OR-05). No one is sure where exactly he fits in ideologically in the GOP; at any rate, here’s hoping he’s a better campaigner than he was a free throw shooter. And out on the left, Jerry Wilson, the founder of Soloflex, is going to run under the Oregon Progressive Party banner. If the general were likely to be closer, a third-party lefty with his own money would seem threatening, but so far, with John Kitzhaber in, the race isn’t shaping up to be close.

• VA-Gov: Al Gore will be appearing on Creigh Deeds’ behalf on Friday, although it’ll be at a private fundraiser and not a public appearance.

• FL-08: With the surprising decision of former state Sen. Daniel Webster to beg off from facing Rep. Alan Grayson, all of a sudden the floodgates have opened — and not in the way you’d expect. Prospective candidates are now actively running away from the race, starting with state Rep. Steve Precourt, who was supposed to be Plan D but said he won’t run and will go for re-election to his state House seat instead. This was followed by wealthy businessman Jerry Pierce, who had previously gotten into the race and promised to spend $200,000 of his own money, but then mysteriously dropped out yesterday. Another rumored rich guy, Tim Seneff, already begged off last week — which means that 28-year-old real estate developer and South Florida transplant Armando Gutierrez Jr. may be the last GOPer standing — and even he sounds like he’s having problems launching his campaign. What kind of mysterious powers does Alan Grayson have here? (Well, other than many millions of his own money and a willingness to spend it…)

• FL-19: It’s been revealed that Rep. Robert Wexler’s new job will not be in the Obama administration, but rather as president of the Center for Middle East Peace and Economic Cooperation. The special election date won’t be set until Wexler’s resignation has been made official, though.

• IN-02: It’s official: state Rep. “Wacky” Jackie Walorski will be taking on Rep. Joe Donnelly in the 2nd, bringing the full might of the teabaggers’ movement down upon him.

• IN-08: Also in Indiana, the Republicans lined up a challenger to Rep. Brad Ellsworth, who’s gotten more than 60% of the vote in both his elections in this Republican-leaning seat. Larry Bucshon, a surgeon, is a political novice, but would seem to bring his own money to the race.

• NV-03: In Nevada’s 3rd, it looks like former state Sen. Joe Heck won’t have the Republican primary field to himself. Real estate investor Rob Lauer is getting in the race and says he’ll invest $100K of his own money in the campaign.

• NY-23: Politico has some encouraging dirt on the special election in the 23rd: Republican Dede Scozzafava is dangerously low on cash, and that’s largely because the RNC has declined to get involved in the race. Scozzafava has spent only $26K on TV ads and recently had to pull down an ad in the Syracuse market; by contrast, Dem Bill Owens and Conservative Doug Hoffman have spent $303K and $124K on TV, respectively. (Discussion underway in conspiracy‘s diary.) Adding further fuel to the GOP/Conservative split is that Mike Huckabee will be appearing in Syracuse to address the NY Conservative Party. Huckabee hasn’t actually endorsed Hoffman, but the timing can’t exactly be a coincidence.

• NY-29: This slipped through the cracks over the weekend; after a cryptic e-mail that led to some hyperventilating about whether Eric Massa wouldn’t run for re-election, he announced at a press conference on the 10th that, yes, in fact, he will be back. Massa faces a challenge in 2010 from Corning mayor Tom Reed.

• ME-Init: A poll from PanAtlantic SMS points to the anti-gay marriage Question 1 in Maine going down to defeat (meaning that gay marriage would survive). With gay advocacy groups learning from their California mistakes last year and going on the offensive with ads this time, the poll finds the proposition losing 52-43.

• Legislatures: Democrats lost two legislative seats in special elections last night, a state House seat in Tennessee and a state House seat in Oklahoma. It’s a bigger deal in Tennessee, where Dem Ty Cobb widely lost to GOPer Pat Marsh in his effort to succeed his brother (losing 4,931 to 3,663); the GOP now holds a 51-48 numeric edge in the House, although it sounds like the Dems will keep controlling the chamber for now. In Oklahoma, Republican Todd Russ won with 56% en route to picking up a seat left vacant by a Democratic resignation, moving the GOP’s edge in the state House to 61-39. Both were rural districts with Democratic registration edges but extremely Republican tilts as of late, where historic Democratic downballot advantages are drying up.

• NYC: After looking kind of vulnerable in the previous SurveyUSA poll, mayor Michael Bloomberg bounced back in yesterday’s poll. He leads Democratic city comptroller William Thompson, 55-38.

• King Co. Exec: Also from SurveyUSA, a troubling look at the King County Executive Race, where the stealth Republican candidate Susan Hutchison leads Democratic county councilor Dow Constantine, 47-42. This is the first time county executive has been a nonpartisan race, and you’ve gotta wonder how many people are unaware of Hutchison’s Republican past (for her to be polling this well in such a blue county, it would seem that she picked up a fair number of votes from suburban moderate Dems who voted for state Sen. Fred Jarrett or state Rep. Ross Hunter in the primary and who may be loath to see another Seattlite like Constantine get the job). This race, to be decided in November, may be something of a canary in the coal mine, as it puts to the test the seemingly new Republican strategy of running blonde 50-something women with little partisan track record, having them steer clear of social conservatism and mostly focus on anti-tax platitudes (as seen in NV-Sen and CO-Sen, and NH-Sen as well if you disregard the “blonde” part).

• CO-Sen: The Denver Post does some interesting digging into how former House speaker Andrew Romanoff wound up in the Senate Democratic primary against Michael Bennet after all. Governor Bill Ritter tried to give the Lt. Gov. spot to Romanoff after Barbara O’Brien left the position in January, but the deal collapsed, leaving Romanoff to decide on the primary instead this summer.

• IL-Sen: Chicago’s city treasurer, Stephanie Neely, has decided not to run in the Senate primary. However, Chicago’s inspector general David Hoffman seems to be taking tangible steps to get into the race, saying he’ll make a formal announcement after Labor Day.

• MA-Sen: Rep. Stephen Lynch picked up filing papers for the Senate special election in Massachusetts, indicating he’s likely to soon join Martha Coakley. Lynch, who represents a heavily blue-collar Catholic district based in south Boston, would likely be the only anti-abortion Democratic in the race, but he has strong ties with organized labor.

• MD-Gov: While most of the question marks surrounding the Maryland governor’s race involve whether or not GOP ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich wants a rematch with current Democratic Gov. Martin O’Malley, now some are wondering if O’Malley will face a primary challenge from former Prince George’s Co. Executive Wayne Curry. Speculation centers on how O’Malley has nailed down endorsements from Dems all over the state but is missing some key endorsements from PG County.

• NJ-Gov: Wow, what is it with this guy? So it turns out that back in 2002, Chris Christie turned his sail barge the wrong way down a one-way street, struck a motorcyclist (who was taken to the hospital)… and didn’t get a ticket. No claims about a tow-truck driver recognizing Christie this time – here, we know he identified himself to the officer on the scene. When he was asked if Christie’s title affected the officer’s decision not to issue a summons, the police director said “I don’t think I want to make that kind of deduction, but I think the facts speak for themselves.” Ouch. (D)

• OR-Gov: Lots of movement in the Oregon governor’s race now that John Kitzhaber is in. Democratic state Rep. Brian Clem (who had set up an exploratory committee a few months ago) quickly moved to endorse Kitzhaber and not just get out of the way but join Kitz’s campaign as a director. Meanwhile, Republican state Senator Jason Atkinson — who finished third in the GOP primary in 2006 and has “next in line” status — informally told his hometown paper, the Medford Mail-Tribune, that “he’s running,” although the formal announcement won’t happen for a while. Finally, it sounds like Rep. Peter DeFazio is making a move to… do something. He’s still considering the race, but will make a decision “around Labor Day,” which is soon.

• SC-Gov: Here’s a tea leaf that Jim Rex, who’d be the Dems’s strongest candidate, seems likely to get in the gubernatorial race. In the midst of touring the state and raising money, he says he won’t run for another term as Superintendent of Education.

• AZ-01: It sounds like the GOP has a candidate lined up in the 1st, to against freshman Dem Ann Kirkpatrick, who’s a definite improvement over the sad Sydney Hay from last time. Former state Senate majority leader Russell “Rusty” Bowers (also a former state Rep., and now a sand-and-gravel industry lobbyist) seems like he’s set to run.

• IN-08: The NRCC, however, wasn’t able to pin down a challenger to Brad Ellsworth in the 8th. Former Vandenburgh County Commissioner and county assessor Cheryl Musgrave decided not to run against Ellsworth, although she is considering a state House run instead against incumbent Dem Gail Riecken.

• PA-03: The GOP had been previously struggling to find anyone at all to go against freshman Dem Kathy Dahlkemper, but now they’ve landed someone fairly impressive sounding. John Onorato (not to be confused with Dem gubernatorial candidate Dan Onorato) is the former Erie County Solicitor (analogous to DA in most states), giving him a large constituency to build on.

• SD-AL: State Rep. Shantel Krebs of Sioux Falls said that she’s considering challenging Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in 2010. Krebs would likely need to get past Chris Nelson, the state’s two-term Secretary of State, in the GOP primary though; he’s also in the “considering” phase. (Remember that South Dakota House districts are teeny constituencies, with only 22,000 residents each.)

• NYC-Mayor: One more SurveyUSA poll of the Dem primary in the Big Apple. William Thompson and Mark Green have pretty clear paths in the Mayor and Public Advocate primaries (Thompson leads Tony Avella 52-14), but check out the Comptroller’s race. It’s a three-way slugfest between three city councilors: 25% for John Liu, 24% for Melinda Katz, and 21% for David Yassky.

• Ads: The DNC, via Organizing for America, is running cable TV spots for four potentially vulnerable House Dems, thanking them for their pro-stimulus votes: Ben Chandler, Martin Heinrich, Travis Childers, and Zack Space.

• Polling: The Masters of the Crosstabs were all on hand to do a panel on polling at Netroots Nation last month: Charlie Cook, Mark Blumenthal, Nate Silver, and Charles Franklin, moderated by Greg Dworkin (aka DemFromCT). At the link, you’ll find a video of their session. (Charlie gives a nice shout-out to SSP at about 7:40, and again at 80:20, where he talks about the “growing sophistication of the blogosphere.”) (D)

• Humor: Autotune the News 8 is out, in case you’ve ever wanted Joe Biden to sing you a slow jam.

• HI-Gov: Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann looks like he’ll be running against Rep. Neil Abercrombie for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination; he launched an exploratory committee yesterday. Hannemann and Abercrombie actually faced off once before; Hannemann defeated Abercrombie in the 1986 primary for HI-01 (but lost the general to GOPer Pat Saiki). Either one would seem to have an edge over Republican Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona in the general, based on the state’s lean, although Aiona’s fundraising has been impressive so far.

• NJ-Gov: Quinnipiac may be finding a bit of a post-primary bounce for Republican challenger Chris Christie; he leads Jon Corzine 50-40 in their newest poll. (Last month was 45-38 for Christie, although this poll is a switch from registered voters to likely voters.) Corzine’s favorables are his worst-ever at 35-53; Christie’s are 36-16, but with 46% “haven’t heard enough,” allowing some room for Corzine to define him if he hits hard with his new ad blitz.

• NY-Gov: How’s this for an unsurprising headline: “Poll Finds Paterson Deeply Unpopular.” The NYT polled Paterson’s favorables (no head-to-heads, though) and found that Paterson has an approval of 21%, compared to a finding of 26% approval of ex-Gov. Eliot Spitzer in the same poll.

• MN-Gov: CQ comes the closest I’ve seen to consolidating the name of every single person planning to run for Minnesota governor in one place. I count 10 Democrats and 11 Republicans, which I won’t bother trying to reproduce here.

• IN-08: Rep. Brad Ellsworth finally has a Republican opponent, auto worker Dan Stockton. Stockton hasn’t held office, but he is active in community theater and “heavily involved in motorcycle rights.” Well, I’m glad someone is willing to take a courageous stand for those oppressed motorcycles.

• MD-01: State Sen. Andy Harris may not get a clear path to the GOP nomination in his rematch with Rep. Frank Kratovil. State Sen. E.J. Pipkin is considering a face off with Harris again in the primary. (Pipkin finished third in the 2008 primary, getting 20% of the vote to 43 for Harris and 33 for then-Rep. Wayne Gilchrest. In fact, Pipkin may have thrown the election to BaltCo resident Harris, by vacuuming up more conservative votes on the Eastern Shore that may have otherwise gone to Gilchrest on the basis of geography.) Pipkin has the advantage of self-funding; he spent $2 million of his own money en route to racking up 34% against Sen. Barb Mikulski in 2004. While Pipkin isn’t as conservative as Club for Growth favorite Harris, he isn’t as moderate as Gilchrest. Other Republicans interested in the primary include Anne Arundel County Exec John Leopold and former state House minority leader Al Redmer.

• NH-02: The field to replace Rep. Paul Hodes got a third Dem contestant: former state Senator Mark Fernald got into the race yesterday. Fernald may retain a bit of name rec from his 2002 loss in the governor’s race (he lost to Craig Benson, who then lost in 2004 to John Lynch).

• NY-23: One GOPer is already launching his “campaign” for the nomination to replace John McHugh (in the sense that he’s publicly saying that he’s going around and talking to the right kingmakers on all the county party committees). It’s a guy who wasn’t on anybody’s list: Franklin County legislator Paul Maroun, whose day job is counsel to state Senator Betty Little (who doesn’t sound likely to run, especially since she lives in NY-20).

• Census: We’re less than a year away from the 2010 Census, and we’re still short a Census director, as the GOP has put a mystery hold on Obama’s nominee for the job, Robert Groves. The Census is also facing an appropriations fight in coming weeks, as it requested a 135% increase in funding for next year (seeing as how 2010 is the year when it does most of its work, but try explaining that to a Republican). A leaderless, underfunded Census isn’t likely to put together an accurate count, and an inaccurate count is likely to undercount traditionally Democratic harder-to-count groups.

• DC Voting Rights: The bill to give the District of Columbia a fully functioning representative in the U.S. House (and give an extra seat to Utah, increasing the size of the House to 437 and the Electoral College to 539) seems to be stalled for now, according to Steny Hoyer. Nobody seems to know how to get around the GOP-added poison pill attached to it that will strip DC’s gun laws, so it’s just going to sit.