Tag: CA-Sen

SurveyUSA for KABC-TV (9/30-10/3, likely voters, 9/19-21 in parentheses):

Jerry Brown (D): 47 (46)

Meg Whitman (R): 43 (43)

Other: 8 (8)

Undecided: 2 (3)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (49)

Carly Fiorina (R): 43 (43)

Other: 9 (6)

Undecided: 2 (2)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

SurveyUSA finds very little movement on the polling front, with Barbara Boxer losing a few points to “undecided,” and Jerry Brown gaining a smidgen of ground. (This poll was in the field after the Meg Whitman housekeeper story had broken, although it continued to evolve; unlike Rasmussen, they seem to find it barely affecting the numbers with everyone pretty much already having made up their minds.) SurveyUSA has some other odds and ends, as per usual: they find Gavin Newsom still leading Abel Maldonado in the Lt. Governor race, 42-37, and Proposition 19 for the legalization of marijuana still passing, 48-41.

Ipsos for Reuters (10/3-4, likely voters, 6/25-27 (using RVs) in parentheses):

Jerry Brown (D): 50 (45)

Meg Whitman (R): 43 (39)

Undecided: 7 (14)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 49 (45)

Carly Fiorina (R): 45 (41)

Undecided: 6 (13)

(MoE: ±4.6%)

Ipsos’s trendlines also suggest that nothing much has changed, although it has because they’ve been out of the California picture for four months and they entirely missed Meg Whitman’s August spike and subsequent swoon. (This poll was also taken after housekeeper-gate, but 72% say that has no effect on their vote.) Reuters finds little enthusiasm gap in California, with 75% of Dems reporting they’re certain to vote, and on top of that, Brown and Boxer both lead among independents. Among RVs, Boxer and Brown both lead by an identical 48-42. Interestingly, that’s two polls in one day finding Brown polling better than Boxer, which we’ve rarely seen all cycle.

Ipsos finds 53-43 support for Prop 19 (pot), 37-49 support for suspending the state’s greenhouse gases law, and support a simple majority for budget passage by 58-29.

GOP operative Mike Murphy is also tweeting that the Meg Whitman camp has an internal showing her within two points, 43-41. It also has Gloria Allred (representing Meg Whitman’s former worker) with an unfavorable of 68%!!!1! (Uh, too bad Gloria Allred isn’t running for anything.)

• AK-Sen: It’s never a dull moment with Joe Miller in the race. Hot on the heels of the news that he believes that federal unemployment insurance is unconstitutional, today comes the news that his wife went on unemployment after leaving a job in 2004, and that Miller did not disown his wife for betraying the Founding Fathers. But wait, it just gets more interesting: the job Miller’s wife left was working for… Miller himself. He hired his wife as a part-time clerk when he was working for several years as a magistrate judge for the federal district court (y’know, for the federal government he just hates so much). Local gadfly (and Lisa Murkowski ally) Andrew Halcro is, in fact, suggesting that Miller was forced to fire his wife because the blatant nepotism may have been a violation of court policies. (Of course, Miller’s response was that Murkowski’s not one to talk about nepotism.)

And on top of that, now it’s come out that Miller is a full-on Seventeenther. In other words, part of the new crop of right-wingers who want you to vote for him so he can take away your rights to vote for him in the future.

• HI-Sen: Term-limited GOP Gov. Linda Lingle is saying she’ll “take a look” at a Senate bid in 2012. That seat’s current occupant, Dan Akaka, is 86 years old, so it’s not clear whether he’ll run for another term or not. Lingle is probably the only Republican on the bench in Hawaii with enough juice to make a Senate race, especially an open seat one, competitive.

• IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Mark Kirk is out with an internal poll (from Fulcrum), giving him a much larger lead than, well, anyone else, considering that most pollsters have seen this within a point or two either way. His poll says he leads Alexi Giannoulias 42-33, with 2 for the Green Party’s LeAlan Jones. (The same poll also shows Bill Brady leading Pat Quinn 39-27 in the Governor’s race.) Sitting on a big cash advantage, Kirk has reserved most of his entire kitty ($5.2 million) on ad buys for the remaining month.

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold seems determined to follow Nancy Boyda down the path of integrity/obscurity. He’s telling the DSCC (who haven’t advertised yet on his behalf) to back off and let him fight the election himself. Says Feingold: “I consider it to be outside help of a kind that is uncontrolled and tends to believe in a philosophy of slash-and-burn politics. That’s frankly not who I am. I don’t want to win that way.”

• NH-Gov: Univ. of New Hampshire (9/23-29, likely voters, July in parentheses):

John Lynch (D-inc): 51 (54)

John Stephen (R): 34 (29)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Considering that UNH’s sample had Paul Hodes down by 15 and Carol Shea-Porter losing too, it’s pleasantly surprising to see John Lynch hanging in there with little trouble (in contrast to several other recent polls, such as UNH’s in-state rival for weird results, ARG).

• WV-Gov: I guess the 2010 election is over already? Because the conversation today already seems to be changing to 2012. Republican state Sen. Clark Barnes (whom you might remember for briefly getting in and then getting out of the field in WV-01 last year) says he’ll run for governor two years from now.

• NY-20: Finding himself on the very wrong end of both a Siena poll and a Scott Murphy internal, Chris Gibson offers up a POS internal of his own, taken 9/27-28, showing that he’s still within striking distance. He says he trails Murphy 42-38.

• VA-05: Here’s one more Dem poll from the 5th that shows Tom Perriello is narrowly trailing, but not officially dead yet. Rob Hurt leads Perriello 44-43 in a poll sponsored by the League of Conservation Voters and the SEIU (no word on who the pollster is, though). (UPDATE: The pollster is David Dougherty, and the memo is here. The sample was taken 9/20-23 with a 4.4% MoE.)

• American Crossroads: Remember back when we all laughed at American Crossroads for not raising any money, apparently because they were waiting for the million-dollar checks from their half-a-dozen billionaire donors to clear? Ha ha, boy, those were simpler times. Anyway, Democracy 21 and the Campaign Legal Center are going to the IRS to ask for an investigation of Crossroads GPS, one tentacle of the group that’s organized as a non-profit “social welfare organization” or 501(c)(4). The larger Crossroads is a PAC, but GPS itself isn’t supposed to participate in campaigns. Rather than take it up with the FEC, which has fallen into chaotic uselessness because of empty seats on the commission, they’re going straight to the IRS, alleging tax law violations instead.

• Fundraising:

• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt raised $2 million in 3Q, no CoH given

• PA-07: Pat Meehan raised $725K, giving him $1.5 million CoH

• SSP TV:

• AK-Sen: Two different ads, one a coordinated spot between the Joe Miller camp and the NRSC that’s a bio spot for Miller, the other a Tea Party Express one-minute extravaganza that calls Lisa Murkowski a liar, a fraud, and various other things

• IN-Sen: Here’s a link to that Brad Ellsworth ad we mentioned yesterday, where he literally calls Dan Coats a sellout over that all-covers album he released outsourcing

• KY-Sen: The DSCC rolls out an ad hitting Rand Paul on his proposed $2,000 Medicare deductible, while Paul’s newest ad returns to the Jack Conway=Obama theme

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan goes back to the theme of Roy Blunt’s cozy DC insider relationships

• NY-Sen-B: Joe DioGuardi’s first ad is an intro spot, as well as bemoaning the dwindling American Dream

• WA-Sen: The DSCC revisits Dino Rossi’s days as a state Senator, including support for cutting unemployment benefits and the minimum wage

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold takes the GOP to task for prematurely celebrating short of the end zone

• WV-Sen: John Raese follows the NRSC’s lead with his own ad doing the Joe Manchin=Obama thing

• FL-Gov: The DGA’s out with a Florida ad with various law enforcement officials bashing Rick Scott’s Medicare fraud

• NH-Gov: Here’s the ad of the day: John Lynch leaps out of the gate and punches John Stephen in the nose over scandals at New Hampshire’s HHS Dept.

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland, bedecked in camo, reminds the state’s hunters who got the NRA’s backing

• PA-Gov: Well, at least Tom Corbett isn’t saying Dan Onorato = Obama, but he is saying Onorato = Ed Rendell

• RI-Gov: The DGA hits Lincoln Chafee from the right? Their new ad says that vulnerable Rhode Islanders can’t afford all the new taxes Chafee wants

• FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas hits Sandy Adams over the Paul Ryan roadmap

• PA-04: Oh, good… more kids complaining about how their allowance isn’t big enough to cover all the debt they’re going to have to pay off, courtesy of Keith Rothfus

• Rasmussen:

• AZ-Sen: Rodney Glassman (D) 33%, John McCain (R-inc) 54%

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 45%

• CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 43%, Dan Maes (R) 16%, Tom Tancredo (C) 35%

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 45%, Ken Buck (R) 50%

• Rasmussen (appearing as Fox/Pulse):

• CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 47%, Tom Foley (R) 41%

• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 52%, Linda McMahon (R) 42%

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 42%, Roy Blunt (R) 50%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 46%, Sharron Angle (R) 49%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 49%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 37%, Rob Portman (R) 53%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 43%, John Raese (R) 48%

AK-Sen: Hello! McFly! You ever heard of the Commerce Clause? Joe Miller evidently got quite a fine education at Yale Law, since he somehow believes that the minimum wage is “not within the scope of the powers that are given to the federal government.” Oh, yeah, “merit scholarship.” Now make like a tree and beat it!

P.S. Miller’s personal financial disclosures – which he promised to file last week, after ignoring the law since April – are still “going to take a little while.” Anybody home, McFly?!

DE-Sen: By now, you’ve probably all seen Christine O’Donnell’s new ad. If not, drop everything and watch it. It might just blow your mind. But I don’t want this other crucial item to get lost in the shuffle: In a 2006 debate, O’Donnell said that “China was plotting to take over America and claimed to have classified information about the country that she couldn’t divulge.” Reminds me of one of my all-time fave Michele Bachmann quotes.

KY-Sen: Rand Paul is no slouch when it comes to slagging the social safety net. At a debate this weekend, he announced that he wanted to cut Social Security benefits by raising the retirement age. And at a meeting with (who else?) the state Chamber of Commerce, he also declared that Medicaid – a program which benefits some 800,000 Kentuckians – has created “intergenerational welfare.”

GA-02: Those federal indictments in Alabama regarding bribery-for-bingo charges are having effects across state lines. Jay Walker was “chief strategist” for Republican Scott McKeown, who has been making some serious headway against Rep. Sanford Bishop of late. Walker, unsurprisingly, has resigned his post.

MN-08: Republican Chip Cravaack (yep, that’s how you spell it) is touting an internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies (n=300) showing him nipping at longtime Rep. Jim Oberstar’s heels, 45-42. Oberstar’s campaign claims that the survey was a “push poll,” but Cravaack’s campaign denies it (though they won’t release the questionnaire). I’d be surprised if a firm like POS did anything outright shady, though. Anyhow, Cravaack had just $42K on hand as of July 21 and had only raised $100K overall. Oberstar has $1.1 million in the bank.

WA-03: This is weird – the Lower Columbia Daily News asked GOPer Jaime Herrera for a list of campaign events she’s done since the August primary, but she refused to provide one, claiming it might be used to attack her. Denny Heck’s campaign, for their part, says they think Herrera’s all but disappeared from the campaign trail. An unofficial list shows that she supposedly did about a dozen events in this timeframe, to some 30-odd by Heck.

NY-State Sen: Did you know that Iona College was in the polling biz? I had no idea. Anyhow, it looks like they’ve released a couple of state Senate polls in the last few weeks (but no telling exactly how many, since I can’t seem to find a central hub for them anywhere). I’ve come across two surveys, though: In SD-35 (PDF), Dem Andrea Stewart-Cousins leads Republican Liam McLaughlin 44-37. Meanwhile, in SD-40, GOPer Greg Ball leads Dem Mike Kaplowitz 45-35. (A Siena poll yesterday of the same race had Ball up just 45-44.) The sponsor of these polls is a right-wing business group called the Westchester County Association, which also promises to poll SD-37 and NY-19.

Fundraising:

• ID-01, OH-15: The Hotline has numbers for Walt Minnick and Mary Jo Kilroy
• NY-20: Scott Murphy, $900K raised
• NM-01: Martin Heinrich, $575K raised, >$1m on hand
• WA-02: Rick Larsen, $500K raised

Independent Expenditures:

• Ophthalmologists: Those rogues are backing a rare Dem, Glenn Nye (VA-02), and a guy whose name hasn’t come up in well over a year, Erik Paulsen (MN-03), to the tune of about $65K each
• CT-Sen: The DSCC is spending half a mil on TV for Richard Blumenthal

SSP TV:

• CA-Sen: Uh, is it just me, or does this ad seem like a parody of itself?
• ND-AL: I like seeing this a lot. It’s not the greatest ad of the cycle, but here Earl Pomeroy proudly touts his support of healthcare reform (I think he was the Dem in the reddest district to vote in favor), while attacking Rick Berg for supporting the never-popular insurance companies. If you know they’re going to attack you anyway, you need to just go strong

Rankings are ‘Tilt’ (less than 5 point race), ‘Lean’ (5-10 point race) and ‘Favored ‘(10-20 point race). Anything beyond that is ‘Solid’ for either party.

August and September rankings at links.

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

SENATE

Dem Tilt

WV (Jury is out on wisdom of election this year.)

CT (People like Blumenthal and aren’t fussed about McMahon but closer than it should be.)

NV (Reid can’t pull away but surely Nevadans can’t elect that nut. Can they?)

Rep Tilt

IL (Hardest call to make. I’m still confident Alexi can get over the hump though.)

Dem Lean

NY (Kirsten’s problem was always that people don’t know her. First ads now helping with that.)

WA (Need to see polls not by Rasmussen to see if Rossi has bounced back.)

CA (Boxer isn’t out of the woods yet but the GOP have better targets.)

Rep Lean

WI (Shocked this has shifted so quickly and so convincingly.)

CO (Bennet doesn’t seem to be getting any traction.)

KY (The one remaining shot at a pickup but I suspect it will be another heartbreaker like ’04.)

PA (Sestak has left it too late this time I fear.)

MO (This will be close but doesn’t look good.)

NH (Independents leaning heavily Republican across the country so Hodes has little chance with them dominating the electorate here.)

Dem Favored

DE (Thanks Teabaggers!)

Rep Favored

OH (No Brunner fans she would not be doing better.)

FL (Crist is becoming a bit of a joke.)

NC (Marshall has no money so no contest.)

IN (In any other year I think Ellsworth wins. Want more polls.)

AR (Lincoln won’t lose as big as some think.)

AK (McAdams has great ads but think Dems will be strategic and help Murkowski.)

LA (Melancon ad hitting Vitter where it hurts in final bid but he was never winning this year if any.)

ND safely in the GOP column.

GOVERNORS

Dem Tilt  

CA (August as good as it gets for Whitman. As suspected Brown just had to go up on tv to get ahead. No blowout though.)

Rep Tilt

OH (Strickland running a great campaign but Kasich a tough opponent.)

IL (Quinn is clearly closing despite his problems. Not sure if it will be enough though.)

ME (LePage seems to be sinking but suspect he still leads. Just.)

VT (Need more polling to see if Shumlin has closed here.)

FL (Scott floods the airwaves and Floridians don’t seem to care how dodgy he is.)

OR (Kitzhaber surprisingly weak but still in with a good shout.)

Dem Lean

CT (Foley has skeletons and Malloy does not which in a blue state means a Dem gain.)

MN (Dayton isn’t perfect but split field means a Dem gain.)

MD (Blue state and decent O’Malley approvals mean no Ehrlich return.)

NH (Longevity and the cycle hurt Lynch but I think he’ll be fine.)

MA (Patrick’s job numbers have risen steadily. Suspect he wins even if Cahill drops out late.)

Rep Lean  

PA (Onorato seems to be closing a little but too little too late I fancy.)

TX (Great campaign from Bill White but afraid the state is just too red this year.)

GA (Cannot quite believe Deal is getting a pass here.)

NM (Martinez has a perfect resume for this year.)

WI (Seems to be moving away from Barrett.)

Dem Favored

CO (Hickenlooper breaks 50 on election day despite having two opponents.)

HI (Abercrombie will have to work for it but should be fine.)

RI (Caprio with the advantage but even if Chafee wins this is basically a Dem gain either way.)

NY (No longer a rout but I’m not worried.)

AR (Every incumbent Dem should be on this board!)

Rep Favored

SC (Latest poll looks dodgy but still expect this to tighten in the final weeks.)

NV (Possible Rory could make this close but I can’t see any way he wins.)

MI (Since a Republican was always likely to win Snyder isn’t half bad.)

AZ (Brewer’s debate debacle doesn’t seem to have hurt much.)

OK (I suspect no total blowout but a comfy margin all the same.)

IA (Culver might be toast even with a weaker Republican.)

TN (McWherter turns out to be a bit of dud.)

KS (Nobody seems to have much love for Brownback but even fewer love Dems this year.)

ID (Closer than expected but Otter will win.)

AK (Berkowitz is a decent nominee but I bet he wishes he had challenged Murkowski instead.)

WY safely in the GOP column.

Projection

SENATE – GOP +7

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

• CA-Sen: PPIC (9/19-26, likely voters, 7/6-20 in parentheses):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 42 (49)

Carly Fiorina (R): 35 (40)

Other: 6 (-)

Undecided: 17 (11)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

One more poll for the pile with a high-single-digits lead for Barbara Boxer, this time from the very trustworthy PPIC. They also look at the Governor’s race (see below) and a few initiatives: they find Prop 19 (pot) passing 52-41 and Prop 25 (simple majority budget) passing 48-35, but also finding Prop 23 (suspending greenhouse gas limits) passing 43-42.

• IN-Sen: We’d speculated that this was a possibility back around the time of the Indiana GOP primary, when Dan Coats (an unusually tepid gun supporter as far as GOPers go) won. The NRA today endorsed his Democratic opponent, Brad Ellsworth, who’s pretty much walked the pro-gun line in his red House district. (I know we’d said we’d shut up about NRA endorsements of conservaDems, but this one actually has the potential to move some votes in a key race.)

• PA-Sen: Susquehanna for Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (9/23-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Joe Sestak (D): 42

Pat Toomey (R): 45

(MoE: ±3.5%)

I wish this had come out in time for our monstrous Pennsylvania wrapup from early this morning, as it’s an interesting post-script. Susquehanna (a Republican pollster, but one who’ve demonstrated that they know what they’re doing in Pennsylvania; for instance, they got the PA-12 special pretty close to right) sees it as a surprisingly close race, finding Sestak within 3. Is this the first sign of Sestak closing, or is this just the optimistic edge of the stable mid-single-digits band that the race has usually been pegged at?

• CA-Gov: PPIC (9/19-26, likely voters, 7/6-20 in parentheses):

Jerry Brown (D): 37 (46)

Meg Whitman (R): 38 (40)

Other: 7 (-)

Undecided: 18 (14)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Unfortunately, this poll closes out the end of a run of remarkable luck for Jerry Brown of polls showing him spiking into the lead (although there’s a lot of movement from both candidates to “Other,” though I’m not sure who that would be). Importantly, though, the polling period ended before Meg Whitman’s illegal housekeeper problem burst into public view. The SEIU is doing its part to keep the issue front and center, pumping $5 million into a Latino outreach effort that’s largely field efforts but also includes an ad starting in a few days hitting Whitman on the housekeeper issue. Whitman’s also doing her part to keep it in the news, saying she’ll employ the scoundrel’s last refuge — a polygraph test — to prove she was unaware.

• NY-Gov: Marist (9/27-29, likely voters, 9/14-19 in parentheses):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 53 (52)

Carl Paladino (R): 38 (33)

Rick Lazio (C): – (9)

Undecided: 8 (6)

(MoE: ±4%)

Marist strikes back quickly with another poll following up on the news that Rick Lazio is no longer a candidate, preferring to enjoy the great prestige that comes with a trial court judgeship in the Bronx. At any rate, they don’t see anything changing other than what you’d expect: most of Lazio’s voters from the Conservative line gravitated over to GOP nominee Carl Paladino, with a few, unappetized by the bombastic Paladino, joining the ranks of the undecided.

• OR-Gov: One major explanation for how Chris Dudley has made a major race out of what looked like an easy Dem pickup hold a year ago is… money. (As with so many other races this year…) Dudley has raised $5.6 million all cycle long, as of Tuesday’s reporting deadline, more than doubling up on John Kitzhaber’s $2.6 million, the largest disparity between the two parties ever seen in an Oregon gubernatorial race. (The SEIU has been running ads on Kitzhaber’s behalf, and the DGA has $750K ready to go, but that’s still a big deficit.)

• RI-Gov: Fleming & Associates for WPRI-TV (9/22-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Frank Caprio (D): 33

John Robitaille (R): 19

Lincoln Chafee (I): 30

Undecided: 15

(MoE: ±4.4%)

There’s been a general trend in the last month or two toward the Democrat, Frank Caprio, in this race. But the newest poll (apparently the first of this race from Fleming & Associates), on behalf of local TV stations, shows a much closer race, with Caprio up only 3 on his indie opponent, Lincoln Chafee.

• GA-08: American Viewpoint for Austin Scott (9/26-27, likely voters, late July in parentheses):

Jim Marshall (D-inc): 38 (44)

Austin Scott (R): 46 (39)

Undecided: 13 (14)

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Well, there’s only one alarming GOP House internal poll today, unlike yesterday’s onslaught. (Also, note the hypertrophied margin of error, based on an n of 300.) Still, this is another race that’s tended to be on the “Lean D” or at least “Tilt D” side of the equation, and one more juggling ball that the DCCC is going to have to keep in the air.

• ME-01, ME-02: Critical Insights, like last time, included both Maine House districts as part of their poll, so we actually have some trendlines now. In the 1st, Chellie Pingree is expanding her lead over Dean Scontras, 54-26. However, in the 2nd, Mike Michaud’s lead over Jason Levesque is a little smaller, down to 44-32 (from 48-28). (In a way, that’s reassuring, because that’s evidence that Critical Insights didn’t just stumble into a much Dem-friendlier batch, and that the flight from Paul LePage seems real.)

• DSCC: The DSCC is having to put some money into Connecticut, a race they probably thought they could avoid spending on when Richard Blumenthal got into the race. They’re starting with a smallish $250K, though. Other DSCC outlays today include $720K in CO-Sen, $464K in IL-Sen, $362K in MO-Sen, and $386K in WV-Sen.

• NARAL: NARAL rolled out endorsements of twenty different Dems running in House races, almost all of whom received $5K each. You can click for the full list, but it includes Cedric Richmond, Steve Pougnet, John Hulburd, and Joe Garcia on offense (the rest are defensive picks).

• SSP TV:

• AK-Sen: Lisa Murkowski’s out with two different ads, one hitting Joe Miller as outsider, the other a PSA-type ad that verrrry slowly and carefully explains to people how to vote for her

• KY-Sen: Here’s a powerful new ad from Jack Conway hitting Rand Paul on the drug issue yet again, complete with tombstone and tagline “He doesn’t know us” (interestingly, though, the DSCC is following the NRSC’s lead here with an ad buy cancellation for the week of the 5th) (UPDATE: Looks like the DS un-cancelled)

• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt hits Robin Carnahan over the stimulus, pointing out that another member of the extended Carnahan clan got money for his wind farm

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold tries going back to firing up the base, running an ad based on the merits of health care reform

• MI-01: The NRCC weighs in with an ad in the 1st, an endless circle of meta wherein Dan Benishek attacks Gary McDowell for attacking

• WI-07: Julie Lassa goes back to the theme of Sean Duffy having prematurely abandoned his day job as DA to run for the House

• AJS: Americans for Job Security tries again in VA-09 (remember that’s where their previous ad got bounced for being too egregious), as well as in CO-03 and NY-24

• Rasmussen:

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 43%, Ken Buck (R) 51%

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 21%, Marco Rubio (R) 41%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%

• IA-Sen: Roxanne Conlin (D) 37%, Charles Grassley (R-inc) 55%

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 38%, Rand Paul (R) 49%

• MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 47%, Charlie Baker (R) 42%, Tim Cahill (I) 6%

• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 40%, Brian Sandoval (R) 53%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 48%, Sharron Angle (R) 47%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 42%, John Kasich (R) 50%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 47%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 42%, Ron Johnson 54%

Opinion Research for CNN/Time (9/24-28, likely voters):

CA-Sen, CA-Gov (9/2-7 [RVs] in parens):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 52 (48)

Carly Fiorina (R): 43 (44)

Jerry Brown (D): 52 (46)

Meg Whitman (R): 43 (48)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

You can sort of sense that Democrats everywhere are letting out a sigh of relief (not unlike the one made by Admiral Ackbar after his fleet concentrated all their firepower on that super-star destroyer) after a string of polls have shown Babs Boxer and Jerry Brown putting some daylight between themselves and their moneyed GOP opponents. (That was certainly accentuated earlier today by the news that the NRSC canceled their ad buy on Carly Fiorina’s behalf in the final week of the campaign.) Among registered voters only, the gaps are even bigger: Boxer leads Fiorina by 56-37, and Brown’s up by 52-39.

FL-Sen, FL-Gov (9/2-7 [RVs] in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 23 (24)

Marco Rubio (R): 42 (36)

Charlie Crist (I): 31 (34)

Alex Sink (D): 45 (49)

Rick Scott (R): 47 (42)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Not as good. Among registered voters, Sink has a slim 46-45 lead over chrome-domed scumbucket Rick Scott.

IL-Sen, IL-Gov (no trend lines):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 43

Mark Kirk (R): 42

LeAlan Jones (G): 8

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 38

Bill Brady (R): 40

Rich Whitney (G): 4

Scott Lee Cohen (I): 14

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Those are the best numbers we’ve seen for Pat Quinn since… well, a long time. Among RVs, he’s tied at 37-37 with Brady (while Giannoulias gets a 42-38 lead over Kirk). The biggest surprise of the poll is how many votes disgraced ex-Dem Lt. Gov. nominee Scott Lee Cohen is vacuuming up (he runs strongest among Dems, indies, moderates and liberals – go figure). Is he drawing voters that would normally go Democratic, but can’t bring themselves to pull the trigger for Quinn this year?

• AK-Sen: The Tea Party Express is reloading in Alaska, with Lisa Murkowski having popped up again as a target. They’re launching a new ad blitz starting Monday, although no word on how much they plan to spend on this go-round.

• CA-Sen: It seems like the NRSC can read the handwriting on the wall in California: they’ve canceled a $1.9 million ad buy on Carly Fiorina’s behalf for the last week before the election (probably sensing that money’s more valuable in West Virginia). They’re, of course, framing it as “advancing in another direction,” saying they wanted to give her flexibility to spend the money “around the state and not just in one city.”

• CO-Sen: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for DSCC (9/22-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 48

Ken Buck (R): 46

(n=800)

The DSCC has the first publicly-offered poll in a while giving Michael Bennet a lead, here up 2 on Ken Buck. (The last poll with a Bennet lead seems to be that joint POS/Fairbank Maslin poll from early September, which had him up by 3.)

• DE-Sen: Wow, Christine O’Donnell’s resume (on her LinkedIn profile) is falling apart like it was made out of balsa wood and chewing gum. After getting called on not having actually taken any classes at Oxford yesterday, now it turns out that she never took any classes at Claremont Graduate University. And she’s offering a really strange denial, the kind of thing you might expect from a first-grader rather than a 41-year old: that Linked In profile with her name on it? Yeah, she’s saying she didn’t put it up and doesn’t know who did.

• LA-Sen: I don’t know if anyone has compared this yet to that epic-length R. Kelly video that has him hiding in closet and there’s a dwarf apropos of nothing? At any rate, Charlie Melancon is out with a new ad that’s not the first time he’s broached the issue of David Vitter’s, um, personal failings… but this one goes on for two whole minutes, chronicling the whole thing in great detail. Given its remarkable length, it should be no surprise that it’s only running on cable.

• NC-Sen: Public Policy Polling (pdf) (9/23-26, likely voters, late Aug. in parentheses):

Elaine Marshall (D): 36 (38)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 49 (43)

Michael Beitler (L):  (6)

Undecided: 11 (13)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

The movement toward Richard Burr (thanks to his seemingly-effective advertising, paid for with his huge financial edge) shown by other pollsters is corroborated by PPP, who’ve tended to see a closer race here in their home state than anyone else. He leads by 13, instead of 5 like last time. One galling number, indicating this could be a real race if Elaine Marshall had any money (not forthcoming, since the DSCC is playing so much defense elsewhere), is that Marshall actually leads 47-45 among those who have an opinion of her.

• NV-Sen: Jon Ralston continues to pummel Sharron Angle, this time over her strange attempts to walk back claims that she wants to privatize the VA. “Walk back” may not even be the right word, since her seem to involve the argument that she never actually said the words that she previously said in May. Meanwhile, here’s the level of message discipline they have over at Camp Angle: her own spokesperson is criticizing Angle’s latest ad on immigration as “propaganda,” in her side gig as chair of the Nevada Republican Hispanic Caucus!

• WA-Sen: Who’s the most popular politician in America these days? Bill Clinton, believe it or not. So it’s no surprise he’s in demand as Democratic surrogate, and he’s even coming to Washington on Patty Murray’s behalf, headlining a Boeing-themed event in Everett on Oct. 18.

• CA-Gov: This story seems to be developing as the day goes on: Meg Whitman’s camp has had to cop to the fact that she once employed a housekeeper who was, gasp, an illegal immigrant. The fight… which will probably determine how much of a story this becomes (if any) over the next few days… seems to be over how much Whitman personally knew about her status (although the non-matching social security number seems like it should’ve been a tipoff).

• CO-Gov: Wow, this might actually help Dan Maes climb his way out of polling in the low teens! Today he offers some exculpatory evidence that he did too sorta-kinda work as an undercover officer for a small-town police department in Kansas. (Of course, it also shows that he was in fact fired for leaking information about the probe to the relative of a target.)

• OH-Gov: Benenson for Campaign for the Moderate Majority (9/25-27, likely voters, no trendlines):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 41

John Kasich (R): 40

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±4%)

You might apply a little salt as this is a poll by a Dem pollster for Dem-sounding group, but this is still the first we’ve seen this in a long, long while… a poll with Ted Strickland in the lead. With a trio of polls in the last few days showing Strickland down by either 1 or 2, there’s some definite late closing in this race. (One strange item, though, is that “other” candidates are eating up 6% of the vote here. I’d be surprised if that continues.)

• CO-02: Magellan (9/29, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jared Polis (D-inc): 48

Stephen Bailey (R): 36

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±3.7%)

I’m not sure why Magellan fired up their crack team of robo-dialers to test this race, not really on anyone’s radar screen — maybe they’re prospecting for unusual targets. As one would expect, Jared Polis isn’t in particular danger in this D+11 district, although thanks to the drag of the national climate his numbers seem softer than the district’s heavy lean.

• NC-07: SurveyUSA for Civitas (pdf) (9/24-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mike McIntyre (D-inc): 45

Ilario Pantano (R): 46

(MoE: ±4.4%)

SurveyUSA takes a look at NC-07, as part of the Civitas Institute’s rotating cast of pollsters. The (not very comforting) good news is that this is SurveyUSA, which has been putting out very GOP-friendly polling in House races, especially in North Carolina. (See their NC-11 polling, compared to other sources.) The bad news is that this race is pretty low on people’s watch lists, although the NRCC has started to spending some money on ads here.

• VA-02: POS for Scott Rigell (9/26-27, likely voters, no trendlines):

Glenn Nye (D-inc): 35

Scott Rigell (R): 42

Kenny Golden (I): 5  

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±4.9%)

On top of the NRCC internal poll leaked yesterday (giving Scott Rigell a decent if not-awe-inspiring 45-40 lead over Glenn Nye in an Ayres McHenry poll on 9/23-26), now Rigell’s out with his own internal poll from POS giving him a slightly bigger lead. There’s one very strange detail here, though: the voters going for tea-flavored indie Kenny Golden seem to be coming out Glenn Nye’s column, as that subsample has 59/23 Obama approvals. The MoE on that subsample is probably astronomical, but still, there seems to be some message confusion here about who’s who.

• WI-07: POS for Sean Duffy (9/21-22, likely voters, no trendlines):

Julie Lassa (D): 43

Sean Duffy (R): 47

(MoE: ±4.9%)

With Julie Lassa having released a poll yesterday showing her down by 1, Sean Duffy retaliated with a poll showing, well, not much difference: his poll has Lassa down by 4. This gets a little confusing, because the NRCC is out with a totally different internal poll today giving Duffy a better result (see below). At any rate, the polls taken in combination seem to give him a definite advantage here.

• NRSC: Here are some McCain Bucks that are actually worth something in the real world! Apparently feeling confident in his general (having survived a bigger challenge in his primary from J.D. Hayworth), John McCain just kicked $1 million over to the NRSC. (Alternate title: Good news! From John McCain!)

• NRCC: In addition to those couple candidate-released internals, the NRCC leaked five more internals of its own today to the Hotline, the majority of which confirm the expected trouble in three Midwestern open seats, but one showing a sleepy race is a live one and one with flat-out awful numbers for the Dem:

WI-08: Steve Kagen (D-inc) 39%, Reid Ribble (R) 57% (OnMessage, 9/15-16)

IL-17: Phil Hare (D-inc) 43%, Bobby Schilling (R) 44% (Tarrance Group, 9/23-25)

WI-07: Julie Lassa (D) 38%, Sean Duffy (R) 52% (Fabrizio, McLaughlin 9/15-16)

MI-01: Gary McDowell (D) 24%, Dan Benishek (R) 40% (Hill Research, 9/19-22) (um, no polling on Glenn Wilson?)

IN-08: Trent Van Haaften (D) 20%, Larry Buchson (R) 41% (OnMessage, 9/13-14)

• American Crossroads: Money’s flowing out of American Crossroads as fast as it flows in, from their handful of billionaire donors: they’re launching TV ad buys worth $724K in CO-Sen, $618K in IL-Sen, $346K in NV-Sen, $267K in PA-Sen, $492K in WA-Sen, $384K in MO-Sen, and also $247K in direct mail in FL-Sen. (Here’s a peek at their WA-Sen ad.)

• NFIB: Committees? Who needs ’em? The National Federation of Independent Business is getting straight into the IE business, too, and in a big way. They have a new PA-Sen ad out (see the link). They’re also starting to advertise in NC-Sen, WI-Sen, IN-08, WI-07, ND-AL, OH-16, NM-01, NV-03, FL-08, SC-05, VA-05, and WI-08.

• State legislatures: Louis Jacobson, writing for Governing magazine, updates his state legislature projections, with almost every move in the Republicans’ favor. 25 of the 28 chambers “in play” are Democratic-controlled. The most alarming moves include moving the Dem-held Pennsylvania House and Ohio House to Lean Republican, and the North Carolina Senate and Colorado House to Tossup. The one remaining viable pickup opportunity for Dems is the Texas House.

• Polltopia: There isn’t exactly anything new in this Politico piece from Maggie Haberman, but it does convey that professional pollsters and poll watchers in the Beltway are throwing up their hands in frustration about wildly vacillating, inconclusive polling this cycle as the rest of us are… showing that, really, nobody has much of a clue as to what’s about to happen. Just to help everyone take a deep breath and keep things in perspective here…

• SSP TV:

• FL-Sen: The winning ad of the day comes from the Florida Democratic Party, on Kendrick Meek’s behalf, letting Charlie Crist do all the talking about how he’s really a conservative Republican

• WI-Sen: I actually agree with the Fix here that this is an effective Ron Johnson ad, letting him play the outsider in the same way that Russ Feingold did 18 years ago

• WV-Sen: The NRSC contrasts at-home Joe Manchin vs. Washington Joe Manchin

• FL-Gov: The FDP is also out with two different ads in the Governor’s race, hitting Rick Scott on his Columbia/HCA tenure and contrasting that with Alex Sink’s uncontroversial time at Bank of America

• MA-Gov: The RGA keeps hitting Tim Cahill (on the lottery this time), knowing full well that less Cahill means more Charlie Baker

• MD-Gov: Martin O’Malley is one politician embracing instead of fleeing Barack Obama, in a new radio ad

• FL-22: Ron Klein is out with another anti-Allen West ad, but it’s back to the tax liens instead of dipping into the well of crazy

• IA-01: AFF is out with a mondo-sized ad buy against Bruce Braley in a race that no one else but them seems to be paying attention to (for $800K!) (h/t desmoinesdem)

• KS-03: Stephene Moore is finally out with her first TV spot, which is mostly an attack on Kevin Yoder (though self-narrated, which is unusual for that)

• NH-02: Ann McLane Kuster’s out with an ad hitting Charlie Bass for wanting to “pick up where he left off”

• NV-03: Here’s a link to that Dina Titus “peas in a pod” ad that we mentioned this morning, tying Joe Heck to Sharron Angle

• PA-12: Mark Critz’s first ad talks about his own hardscrabble roots, and about outsourcing

• WI-07: As cool as it is to watch, how many more ads is Sean Duffy going to keep playing lumberjack in?

• Rasmussen:

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 42%, Rob Portman (R) 51%

• AK-Sen: Daily Kos just added Scott McAdams to its Orange to Blue list, so if you’re still looking to throw some money in his direction, you can do so via Big Orange. Meanwhile, Lisa Murkowski is trying to gear up her write-in campaign, and with Ted Stevens having been laid to rest this week, she’s mulling whether to roll out those ads featuring Stevens that she had ready to go pre-primary but pulled because of his death. This can’t be good news for Murkowski, though: Rep. Don Young, more from the Murkowski/Stevens wing of the local GOP than the teabagger wing, is having a bout of self-preservation and is staying neutral, not endorsing anyone in the race. Finally, here’s one more page in Joe Miller’s ongoing saga of milking the system that he hates so darn much: when new to Alaska (but after he’d bought his expensive house and started working as an attorney), he obtained an indigent hunting/fishing license that required an income of less than $8,200/yr.

• DE-Sen: Christine O’Donnell says she attended Oxford. Oh, no, wait, she took a course from something called the Phoenix Institute that “rented space from” Oxford. Why am I not surprised?

• FL-Sen: I always figured that the early love affair between the local teabaggery and Marco Rubio wouldn’t last; he seemed more from the mainstream Jeb Bush camp and it seemed more a marriage of convenience based on his charisma but mostly on the fact that he wasn’t Charlie Crist. Anyway, he’s pretty much severed the relationship and making a break for the establishment with his latest revelation, that he decided several months ago against privatizing Social Security after concluding the idea “doesn’t work.” (If Ken Buck gets elected, I wonder how long it’ll take him to make the same move?)

• IL-Sen: The DSCC is keeping on pouring money into the Land of Lincoln, bolstering Alexi Giannoulias. They’re adding another $400K to the pile, for another week on the air.

• KY-Sen: The NRSC is taking the opposite tack, engaging in a little advertisus interruptus and pulling out for a week from Kentucky. (They claim they’re doing so from a position of strength, naturally.) Meanwhile, this is kind of small ball ($1,400 in contributions from three guys), but it’s still the kind of headline you probably don’t want to see if you’re Rand Paul, especially once you’ve made your feelings on the Civil Rights Act clear:

Conway camp calls on Paul to return money from white separatists

• NY-Sen-B: Marist (9/19-22, likely voters, 5/3-5 in parentheses):

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 52 (50)

Joe DioGuardi (R): 41 (30)

Undecided: 7 (20)

(MoE: ±4%)

Marist gives you a buffet of different numbers of choose from, as it’s 54-42 for Gillibrand when leaners are pushed, or it’s 55-36 when polling just registered voters (meaning there’s an enthusiasm gap worth 8 points here). They also find Chuck Schumer having no problems in the other Senate race, leading Jay Townsend 58-37 among LVs (and 63-32 among RVs).

• WI-Sen: Ron Johnson’s one act of political participation prior to this year — testifying before the state legislature in opposition to the bipartisan-supported Wisconsin Child Victims Act — is getting a second look in the press. His main interest in opposing the bill was that it could lead to corporations or other business entities being held liable for acts of employees, worried about the “economic havoc” it would create (and worried that those meddling “trial lawyers” would benefit). Think Progress has video of the testimony.

• WV-Sen: This seems like a new one to me… John Raese is actually paying people to write letters to the editor on his behalf. Not just offering them McCain Bucks that can’t be redeemed for anything in the real world, but running an actual contest giving money to people who get the most letters published. Also, I’ll give John Raese credit for being himself even when he’s being followed around by reporters. Here’s his reaction to finding out that the NRA endorsement went to Joe Manchin:

Raese speaks angrily into the phone, his words full of threat: “Tell them that I have an A plus rating with them, and that if they are fair they should include that. Tell them about the polling. Tell them I’m riding an elephant.” Raese pulls the cell phone away from his ear,  hands it back to Patrick the driver, and says “That has made it a lot harder.”

• CT-Gov: Little known fact: did you know that Jodi Rell still hasn’t endorsed Tom Foley yet, despite only weeks to go? Foley’s camp is saying it’s imminent, but it looks like Rell has summoned up even less enthusiasm in the general as she did for her Lt. Gov., Michael Fedele, in the GOP primary.

• FL-Gov: Here’s an interesting endorsement for Alex Sink: she got the backing of term-limited Republican state Sen. Alex Villalobos. Villalobos is also backing Charlie Crist (and even Dan Gelber in the AG race), so this exactly a sign of the Republican edifice collapsing, though.

• IA-Gov, SD-AL: Add one more to the long list of Dems who are getting a nice NRA endorsement as their box-of-Rice-a-Roni-and-can-of-Turtle-Wax-style parting gift on their way out the studio door. Chet Culver just got the backing of the gun lobby. (One state to the north, they also just backed Stephanie Herseth Sandlin today.)

• CA-44: PPP for Democrats.com (9/24-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Bill Hedrick (D): 38

Ken Calvert (R-inc): 49

Undecided: 13

(n=760)

Despite being woefully underfunded, Bill Hedrick’s keeping the race competitive in his rematch against Ken Calvert (recall that he almost won, out of nowhere, in 2008). How he makes up that last 12 points in this climate, though, I’m not sure.

• FL-22: Harstad Research Group for Project New West (9/20-22, likely voters, no trendlines):

Ron Klein (D): 48

Allen West (R): 43

Undecided: 9

(n=504)

There’s lots of back-and-forth in the polling of the 22nd, with each side sporting their own internal with a lead in the last week. Dem pollster Harstad weighs in with another one going in Ron Klein’s column.

• KS-03: Moore money, Moore problems? Retiring Rep. Dennis Moore is still busy emptying out his campaign coffers, transferring $100K more to the Kansas Democratic party (on top of a previous $100K in June). That’s probably with the understanding that the money will be used to pay for their newest mailer in support of Stephene Moore, running to succeed her husband.

• NH-01, NH-02: American Research Group (9/22-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 40

Frank Guinta (R): 50

Undecided: 8

Ann McLane Kuster (D): 36

Charlie Bass (R): 38

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±5%)

Here are some unusual results from ARG! (although should we expect anything else?): they find Carol Shea-Porter getting keelhauled in the 1st, while the open seat battle in the 2nd is a swashbuckling battle (contrary to other polls we’ve seem of these races, where the 1st has been a tossup or a narrow CSP advantage while the 2nd has looked bad).

• PA-08: I’ve been patiently waiting here for actual toplines for more than a day, but it seems like they aren’t forthcoming… so I’ll just let you know there’s a Harstad Research Group poll (on behalf of SEIU and VoteVets, not the Patrick Murphy campaign) out in the 8th that gives Murphy a 3-point lead over Mike Fitzpatrick and an 8-point lead among voters who voted in 2006. It was taken Sept. 20-22.

• WI-07: Garin Hart Yang for Julie Lassa (9/26-27, likely voters, in parentheses):

Julie Lassa (D): 41

Sean Duffy (R): 42

Gary Kauther (I): 7

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4.4%)

I don’t know how good a sign this is, releasing an internal where you’re still trailing in a Democratic-leaning district. Lassa needs to let the donors know she’s still in this, I suppose.

• WV-03: Global Strategy Group for DCCC (9/23-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Nick Rahall (D-inc): 55

Spike Maynard (R): 37

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±4.8%)

Well, here’s one district where all the polls (even the one from AFF) are consistent in showing a nearly-20 point edge for long-time Dem Nick Rahall.

• NY-St. Sen.: Four polls from Siena of key New York State Senate races have, on the balance, bad news for the Democrats: Darrell Aubertine, the first Democrat in several geological epochs to hold SD-48 in the North Country, is trailing GOP opponent Pattie Ritchie for re-election, 48-45. Brian Foley, in Long Island-based SD-4, is also in a tough race, leading Lee Zeldin 44-43. Meanwhile, two Republican incumbents are looking fairly safe: Frank Padavan, who barely survived 2008 in Dem-leaning Queens-based SD-11, leads ex-city councilor Tony Avella 56-32, while in SD-44, Hugh Farley leads Susan Savage 55-37. (I’d rather see them poll the open seat races; that’s where the Republicans are at more risk.)

• Mayors: There aren’t a lot of big-city mayoral races where the decisive vote is in November (most were wrapped up in the primaries), but one interesting one is Louisville, where the longtime Dem incumbent Jerry Abramson is leaving in order to run for LG next year. Dem Greg Fischer (who you may remember from the 2008 Senate primary) is beating Republican city councilor Hal Heiner 48-42, according to SurveyUSA.

• DLCC: You probably saw yesterday that the DLCC is out with a first round of 20 “essential races” for controlling key state legislative chambers. Well, over in diaries, now they’re soliciting suggestions for further additions to the list, so please add some suggestions from races that are near and dear to your own hearts.

• SSP TV:

• CA-Sen: The Chamber of Commerce, trying to salvage this dwindling race, tries to hang the “career politician” tag on Barbara Boxer

• CO-Sen: The DSCC goes after Ken Buck on Social Security again

• CO-Sen: The NRSC runs an anti-Michael Bennet ad, hitting him on his support for health care reform

• DE-Sen: The DSCC crams as much Christine O’Donnell insanity as it can into 30 seconds

• IL-Sen: Mark Kirk goes back to where he began, with another bio spot of small town boy made good

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak’s newest ad keeps on trying to tie Pat Toomey to Wall Street

• WV-Sen: The DSCC goes after John Raese for supporting eliminating the minimum wage and his own ooopses at his own company

• CT-Gov: The DGA hits Tom Foley on outsourcing in his former career as textile magnate

• MI-Gov: The RGA hits Virg Bernero on spending as mayor (OMG! he spent $1,277 on pencils!)

• NM-Gov: Another Susana Martinez attack ad hits Diane Denish for some bungled solar power thingamajig

• TX-Gov: Here’s a mindblowing stat: the DGA has never paid for advertising in Texas… until now. They’re out with an attack on Rick Perry, calling him what nobody wants to be called this cycle (“career politican”)

• KY-03: Todd Lally’s out with two ads, one a bio spot, the other a pretty funny attack on John Yarmuth using the K-Tel greatest hits album motif

• MI-07: Tim Walberg has to call on his mom for help: not to do any polling on his behalf, just to appear in an ad about Social Security

• NC-02: This was probably inevitable… AJS weighs into the 2nd with an ad using Bob Etheridge going apeshit on a poor innocent little tracker

• NC-11: Repent now or Jeff Miller will forever cast you into the fiery pits of Nancy Pelosi’s hell!

• ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy touts how well he cooperated with George W. Bush! (on Medicare Part D, though, which probably plays well among North Dakota’s aging population)

• PA-08: Outsourcing must be polling well for the Dems these days, as Patrick Murphy hits Mike Fitzpatrick on that

• VA-05: Indie candidate Jeff Clark scrounged up enough money to advertise? And he’s attacking GOPer Robert Hurt? That’s good enough for me

• Rasmussen:

• CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 50%, Tom Foley (R) 40%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 46%, John Raese (R) 48%

• Fox/Pulse (aka Rasmussen):

• CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 44%, Dan Maes (R) 15%, Tom Tancredo (C) 34%

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 43%, Ken Buck (R) 47%

• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 36%, Bill Brady (R) 46%, Rich Whitney (G) 8%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40%, Mark Kirk (R) 42%, LeAlan Jones (G) 7%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 45%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 37%, Rob Portman (R) 50%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 48%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 45%, Scott Walker (R) 49%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 44%, Ron Johnson (R) 52%

LA Times/USC (9/15-22, likely voters, 5/19-26 in parentheses):

Jerry Brown (D): 49 (44)

Meg Whitman (R): 44 (38)

Undecided: 5 (13)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 51 (44)

Carly Fiorina (R): 43 (38)

Undecided: 4 (16)

(MoE: ±3.3%)

Here’s one more poll showing that the Democratic surge-let in California seems to be for real: the newest LA Times/USC poll gives mid-to-high single digit leads to both Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer. The poll’s trendlines go back to May, so they’ve missed a lot of ups and downs in the race, but the margins are similar to most of the other polls that have come out in the last few weeks. Apparently, all the Democrats needed to do to get some traction in these races was to… start advertising? Who knew?

Also, like most recent California polls, nobody’s very enthused about Brown (40/41) or Boxer (44/41), but they’re the paragon of popularity compared with Whitman (33/44) and Fiorina (24/29). The most popular person in the poll? Barack Obama, at a strangely high 63/33. That lack of disappointment, compared with pretty much every other state, seems to be part of what’s keeping California’s enthusiasm gap down to a manageable level. (Among all respondents, the Brown/Whitman margin isn’t any different, at 46-42. Boxer fares a bit better among all respondents, though, leading 53-38.)

Field Poll (9/14-21, likely voters, 6/22-7/5 in parentheses):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 47 (47)

Carly Fiorina (R): 41 (44)

Undecided: 12 (9)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

The Senate half of the Field Poll is out today, giving Barbara Boxer an increased lead over Carly Fiorina from the previous poll in early July. Oddly, though, the lead doesn’t come from gains for either candidate, but from voters moving from Fiorina to “undecided.” To me, that’s pretty suggestive that Boxer’s ad campaign so far (which includes a spot hitting Fiorina for her tenure at HP) has been effective at driving up Fiorina’s negatives.

Compared with the gubernatorial race, where both candidates are playing to the center and courting swing voters, this is one about base agitation, and there’s just a much larger Dem base in California. On top of that, Boxer leads 48-29 among Latinos (a much bigger spread than in the governor’s race, where Meg Whitman has spent a lot on Latino outreach), and even leads 46-40 among independents. Unless Fiorina can find a way to either take a huge lead among indies or to get a lot of Democrats to stay home, she’s not on track to win this.