Tag: NRSC

One of the jobs of the head of the NRSC, the GOP’s campaign committee in the Senate, is to constantly wear a brave face and reassure the troops that everything is going OK on the electoral battlefield.

In a jaw-dropping interview with the Savannah Morning News, NRSC chair John Ensign defined the new ‘OK:’ not losing so many seats that the Democrats obtain a filibuster-proof majority.

The chairman of the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee predicts U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss will be part of the firewall the party wants to build against Democratic control of the White House and both chambers of Congress.

U.S. Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., set a minimum on the number of seats the party must control, 41. “The number that we get to is really, really important in the U.S. Senate,” he said. “That’s one of the reasons Saxby absolutely must hold his seat.”

In other words: the goal is to lose no more than eight seats (as they currently hold 49). And the GOP firewall contains Saxby Chambliss: a senator whose seat is universally defined as ‘safe’ by all major prognosticators.

In a move further calculated to disspirit Republican senators, Ensign also confessed the NRSC’s huge financial disadvantage:

“The Democratic Senatorial (Campaign) Committee will be able to take more risks. They’ll be able to take more shots in more places,” he said. “So we’ll have to target our money very carefully. What we won’t do is we won’t spend money in races that are going to win on their own, and we won’t spend money on races that can’t win.”

Hold on a second, Jim Gilmore and Steve Pearce… you don’t have to dig your own grave (and save!) yet, though. Ensign has some more helpful up-by-the-bootstraps advice:

He noted that he won his own Senate seat with less money than the incumbent he upset.

Now just because some of you might be saying, “Wait… the 2000 Senate race in Nevada was an open seat…” that doesn’t mean that imaginary lightning can’t strike twice. After all:

“It’s kind of like a sporting event. You play the game because the outcome is not assured,” he said.

Here they are:

Cmtee	Receipts	Spent	CoH
DSCC	$4.2M	$4.5M	$37.6M
NRSC	$4.3M	$2.3M	$19.4M

The NRSC gains some ground, but they have a long ways to go if they want to close that financial gap.

Source: The Hotline

From The Hill:

Republican senators with millions of dollars in their campaign accounts have given little or nothing to the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), despite its desperate pleas for cash funds.

Fewer than 10 Senate Republicans met goals they received for an NRSC fundraiser with President Bush in McLean, Va., Tuesday evening. GOP senators were asked to contribute $100,000 from their campaign accounts or recruit four major donors for the event. […]

Republican Sens. Arlen Specter (Pa.), Jim Bunning (Ky.), Richard Lugar (Ind.), Pete Domenici (N.M.), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Olympia Snowe (Maine), Tom Coburn (Okla.), and Larry Craig (Idaho) have given nothing to the NRSC, according to campaign finance data collected by the Federal Election Commission and CQ Money Line, a website that tracks fundraising.

These lawmakers have kept their wallets shut despite having millions and not facing reelection this year. Specter, for example, reported $4.2 million in his war chest. Lugar has $2.2 million in his account. Domenici has $840,000 and has announced his retirement. […]

During a recent interview with The Hill, Ensign said about half the Senate’s 49 Republicans were “not even close” to the pace needed to meet their fundraising goals. Ensign has asked members to raise $750,000-$3 million depending on seniority, leadership positions, and committee assignments.

“We’ve tried fear, we’ve tried positive reward, positive reinforcement, we’ve tried being a little harder on them, we use different things at different times – begging, we beg a lot,” he said.

But NRSC officials often hear excuses in response.

“I think they’re all pathetic excuses, but that’s just my own take on it,” Ensign told The Hill only half-jokingly.

Have you tried getting on your knees, John?

Even worse, look at Republican Sen. Richard Shelby, who isn’t even up for re-election this year.  With $13 million sitting in his campaign fund, the Senator has not surrendered a dime of it to the NRSC.  Instead, he’s given a meager $15K from his leadership PAC.  It’s like he wants the GOP to lose seats.

[First, a cheap plug for my blog

Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

Starting off with the big one, DSCC vs. NRSC:

DSCC 2007 FEC Filing

Total Raised 4rd Q: $13.3 million

Total Raised in December: $6.1 million

Total Raised in 2007: $55.4 million

Cash on Hand: $29.4 million

Debt: $1.5 million

NRSC 2007 FEC Filing

Total Raised 4rd Q: $8.4 million

Total Raised in December: $3.1 million

Total Raised in 2007: $31.8 million

Cash on Hand: $12.1 million

As of the end of 2007, the DSCC’s cash-on-hand-minus-debt compared to the NRSC’s is $27.9 million to $12.1 million.  Massive!

NM-Sen:

Tom Udall (D): $1 million Q4, $1.7 million on hand

Steve Pearce (R): $425,000 Q4, $820,000 on hand

Heather Wilson (R): $515 Q4, $1.1 million on hand

Udall raised more in Q4 than Pearce and Wilson combined!

ID-Sen:

Larry LaRocco (D): $166,000 Q4, $200,000 on hand

Jim Risch (R): $236,000 Q4, $171,000 on hand

Even in Idaho, the Democrat has more on hand than the Republican!

CO-Sen:

Mark Udall (D): $1.1 million Q4, $3.6 million on hand

Bob Schaffer (R): $673,000 Q4, $1.5 million on hand

The Republican raised only 60% of the Democrat in Q4 and has less than half the cash on hand of the Democrat.

AR-Sen:

Mark Pryor (D): $616,000 Q4, $3.6 million on hand

The GOP can’t find an opponent for Pryor.

KS-Sen:

Greg Orman (D): $450,000 in December alone (recently entered race)

NH-Sen:

Jeanne Shaheen (D): $1.2 million Q4, $1.15 million on hand

John Sununu (R): $922,000 Q4, $3.42 million on hand

Another race where the Democratic challenger outraised the Republican incumbent.

VA-Sen:

Mark Warner (D): $2.7 million Q4, $2.9 million on hand

I’m guessing that Republican Jim Gilmore will report significantly less.

MI-Sen:

Carl Levin (D): $840,000 Q4, almost $5 million on hand

Levin should face only token GOP opposition.

IA-Sen:

Tom Harkin (D): $802,000 Q4, $3.4 million on hand

ME-Sen:

Tom Allen (D): $813,000 Q4, $2.5 million on hand

Susan Collins (R): $965,000 Q4, $3.9 million on hand

Want to help Democrats expand the map of competitive races?  Send a few bucks their way!

[Originally posted at Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

It seems like Republicans are doing, as Mitch McConnell might say, their “Washington best” to lower expectations for the 2008 Senate elections.  Here is a collection of interesting quotes from Republicans in the know regarding the ’08 Senate races.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell:

Republicans are unlikely to win back control of the Senate in 2008, their Senate leader, Mitch McConnell, said Friday, gloomily predicting that “holding our own is about all we could hope for.” … “It would take an extraordinarily good day to get back up to 50. So our goal is to stay roughly where we are.” [CNN, 7/20/07]

(Much more below the fold.)

NRSC Chair John Ensign:

“If you scratch the surface, things don’t look necessarily that good,” he said. “But when you get below the surface, things aren’t nearly as bad as what they could be.” [Associated Press, 9/9/07]

and

In a “wide-ranging” interview, Ensign “acknowledged that his party faces a steep, uphill climb in next year’s Senate elections when 21 Republican seats will be up for grabs, compared with 12 for the Democrats.” [Washington Times, 3/26/07]

NRSC Communications Director Rebecca Fisher:

Rebecca Fisher, communications director for the NRSC, acknowledged “the mountain that we’re up against,” but predicted success. [USINFO, 9/10/07]

Anonymous GOP Operative:

“About the only safe Republican Senate seats in ’08 are the ones that aren’t on the ballot,” a GOP operative with extensive experience in Senate races said. “I don’t see even the rosiest scenario where we don’t end up losing more seats.” [Washington Post, 9/2/07]

Unnamed Republican Senators:

“Republican Senators are now talking about losing four seats in 2008.” [Evans-Novak Political Report, 8/29/07]

It is shaping up like Republican leadership expects a four-seat net loss to be the best-case scenario.  I expect we’ll see more commentary from Republicans along these lines as the races further develop.  If you’ve seen any similar quotes already, share them in the comments.

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

2008 could be a record year for unexpected Republican primaries. Whether or not strong contenders emerge, Republican primaries are, of course, expected in states from South Dakota to New Jersey, states with Democratic Senate incumbents but a handful (or more) of ambitious Republicans itching to take their shots. And, of course, there will be notable Democratic primaries ranging from Minnesota to Georgia. But the number of unexpected potential Republican primaries for Senate in 2008 is running high.

There are a number of reasons for this. One reason, illustrated more clearly in the Republican Presidential primary, is general discontent by Republican voters of Republican candidates and officials.  Another reason is that Republicans are particularly divided over the issue of immigration reform. Another reason could be that, in many races, the incumbent Republican simply isn’t conservative enough for the base.  Though several of these states with unexpected potential Republican primaries are traditionally red states, the emergence of a viable Democratic challenger in many of these states makes the possibility of a primary all the more daunting for Republicans.

(Much more below the fold.)

Lack of Leadership

Kentucky: Many elements of the conservative base are growingly unhappy with Mitch McConnell’s helming of Senate Republicans, and none have been more vocal than the conservative blogosphere across the country, many of whom have focused on their discontent with McConnell’s support for Bush’s bipartisan immigration reform attempts.  Further, in Kentucky, 1995 GOP gubernatorial nominee Larry Forgy, a loyalist to corrupt incumbent Governor Ernie Fletcher, has hinted that he would consider or support a primary challenge to McConnell if he felt McConnell did not do enough to help Fletcher’s embattled re-election bid.  While McConnell enjoys a hefty bankroll, the power of his political machine has diminished as demonstrated by Anne Northup’s gubernatorial primary defeat to Ernie Fletcher.  If a Republican primary challenger sapped significant resources of McConnell’s, he could find himself very vulnerable to a viable Democrat, say either 2003 Lt. Gov. nominee Charlie Owen or state Attorney General Greg Stumbo.

Immigration Reform

South Carolina: Primarily driven by anger over Lindsey Graham’s support for immigration reform, the South Carolina conservative netroots have begun voicing their displeasure with Graham and desire for a primary challenger.  Dump Lindsey.org and Dump Lindsey Graham express South Carolina conservatives’ preference for a replacement for Graham.  As Hotline’s Blogometer reported:

A new project launched by conservative bloggers promises a primary challenge for any GOP Senator who votes for the [immigration reform] proposal. The most prominent in that field? None other than McCain supporter Lindsay Graham (R-SC). So far, there have been rumblings of a primary challenge for Graham but no candidate yet. If the revived immigration plan comes up to a vote, will Graham’s yea or ney be the triggering mechanism?

This project is called The Payback Project and it seems to have successfully spooked Saxby Chambliss of Georgia into distancing himself from the immigration reform legislation.  If Graham continues his support for the immigration reform legislation, expect talk of a primary to intensify.  After that, Democrats still need to come through with a viable Senate candidate.

Not “Conservative” Enough

Oregon: For more than a decade, Gordon Smith has been Oregon’s only statewide Republican.  He has achieved this by presenting himself as a moderate who can voice Oregon’s concerns to the Republican leadership in the White House and Congress.  But with the Republican brand inreasingly tarnished, and with Smith’s back-and-forth on Iraq demonstrating his lack of integrity, he is coming off as too far to the right for Oregon moderates but also too fiscally irresponsible for conservatives.  As such, 1998 GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Sizemore has hinted that he would consider a primary challenge to Smith.  While Democrats have had a difficult time recruiting a top-tier challenger for Smith, the job would be considerably easier if a Republican primary challenger pulled Smith to the right and sapped significant resources.

Minnesota: Norm Coleman finds himself in a similar situation to Gordon Smith, having to maintain moderate credibility to ensure a necessary breadth of support.  Minnesota will have no shortage of Democratic candidates itching to take Coleman on, be it a famous satirist, an attorney who slew Big Tobacco, a Nobel Laureate, and so on.  It would help the eventual Democratic nominee if Coleman was pulled to the right and had resources sapped by a primary challenger.  Enter Joe Repya, a military veteran and former advisor to Coleman who is considering entering the race.  Despite Repya’s ideological position to the right of the GOP, his apparent sincerity and straightforwardness would offer a damaging foil for the political opportunist Coleman and severely weaken his character before entering the general election, if he wins the primary, that is.

Retirements

Colorado: Senator Wayne Allard has retired and former Rep. Bob Schaffer appears to be the presumptive Republican Senate nominee for 2008.  But enough rumblings keep occuring suggesting that a bloc of the CO-GOP is not convinced Schaffer is a viable candidate against Democratic Congressman Mark Udall.  As such, we could still see a CO-GOP primary, leaving the eventual Republican nominee worse for the wear.

Nebraska: There will be a Republican primary in Nebraska.  The only question is whether or not Chuck Hagel will be involved.  If he is, Hagel will likely still see opposition from state Attorney General Jon Bruning, whose campaign has highlighted Hagel’s lack of support for the Bush administration on Iraq, and former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub.  If Hagel does not run for re-election, expect those two candidates plus businessman Tony Raimondo and who knows how many others might consider a bid for an open seat.  This would not be as notable a scenario if it wasn’t for the fact that two prominent Nebraska Democrats were considering Senate bids: Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey and former Senator Bob Kerrey.  As it seems unlikely that there would be a Democratic primary, whichever Democrat steps up will be at full strength to await a battle-bruised, resource-diminished Republican.

Idaho: If Larry Craig doesn’t retire, than this paragraph is moot.  However, if I had to make a wager, I’d bet on a Craig retirement.  Should Craig retire, Idaho’s GOP Lt. Gov. Jim Risch has been drooling to enter the Senate race and GOP Rep. Mike Simpson has at times expressed interest.  While Idaho is just about as red a state as there is, the ID-Dems have put up their strongest Senate candidate in years in former Congressman Larry LaRocco.  Should Craig retire and a rough Republican primary politically injury the eventual Republican nominee, Democrats would have their best opportunity in years for a Senate pickup here.

Ethics Problems

New Mexico: Pete Domenici’s role in the Attorney Purge scandal has been widely reported and its impact on Domenici’s approval rating has been observed.  With Domenici’s approval bottoming out, for the moment, around 50%, he is still awaiting the results of the Senate Ethics Committee’s investigation.  Should findings or political fallout result in a Domenici retirement or resignation, we could very well see a Republican primary in New Mexico to replace Domenici.  Though far-right GOP Rep. Steve Pearce would be the frontrunner, a less far-right Republican might see an opening for a challenge.  Meanwhile, the prospect of an open seat could entice Democratic Congressman Tom Udall or another top-tier Democrat to enter the race.

Alaska: As Ted Stevens gets more deeply embroiled in FBI investigations surrounding renovations to his home and his relationship with the corrupt VECO Corporation, coupled with Stevens advanced age, declining poll numbers, and increased interest from Democratic Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, Stevens could yet opt for retirement (if the FBI’s investigation doesn’t turn up something sooner that might force Stevens from the Senate), leaving Alaska wide open for a Republican Senate primary.

With the NRSC’s fundraising being well eclipsed by the DSCC, and with 21 Republican incumbents to protect compared with 12 Democrats, Republican Senate resources will be spread awfully thin in 2008.  The prospect of all these primaries, sapping already sparse resources, looms large over Republicans hoping to minimize losses in 2008 following a majority-losing 2006.

(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

A little over two months ago, I took a look at the state of NRSC recruiting in the one open seat (Colorado) and the twelve states with Democratic incumbents, concluding, up to that point in time, that the NRSC was 0-for-13 in recruiting so far.  Keep in mind that we’re approaching the dog days of summer, not a heavy recruitment period.  (Note that during June-August of 2005, only five Senate candidates announced, all five of whom were Republican losers.)  So where does the state of NRSC recruitment stand, and what has changed in the last two months?

(Much more below the fold.)

Colorado: New CO-GOP chief Dick Wadhams muscled the more moderate Scott McInnis out to make room for his good pal conservative “Backwards” Bob Schaffer, who will, barring any unforeseen events, be the Republican nominee for Senate.  Schaffer then proceeded to have a stammering start to his campaign, embarrassing himself right from the start, before hiring a bunch of electoral losers to staff his campaign.  Never mind that Democratic Congressman Mark Udall has a significant advantage in fundraising and a big head start in reaching out to voters.  I suppose we could credit the GOP with an accomplishment for finding a living, breathing human being who has held office before and ostensibly has a base of support to run.  But, with Colorado’s trending blue over the last few years, muscling out the more moderate choice for the more conservative one might not have been the best play.

Arkansas: Since Republican former Governor and current Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee, arguably the only Republican to give Senator Mark Pryor a real challenge, ruled out a Senate bid, it also came out that Pryor saw better Q1 fundraising for his Senate re-election than Huckabee saw for his Presidential bid.  So no Arkansas Republicans seem to be stepping up to the plate at present.  Meanwhile, the new Chair of the AR-GOP, who should be out looking for challengers to Pryor, is instead getting himself in trouble with comments like “I think all we need is some attacks on American soil.”  In a nutshell, as it stands now in Arkansas, the Green Party is doing better than the Republican Party when it comes to Senate recruitment.

Delaware: Nothing new then; nothing new now.  Still zip from the DE-GOP.

Illinois: The NRSC met with wealthy businessman Steve Greenberg.  He however turned down their entreaties and is considering a House bid, leaving political unknown Steve Sauerberg as the sole announced Republican candidate.  Having lost one potential self-funder in Greenberg, expect the GOP to seek out another potential self-funder before writing off the seat and settling for token opposition.

Iowa: While Senator Harkin had a strong Q1, GOP Rep. Tom Latham barely raised a solid amount by House standards, much less Senate standards; and GOP Rep. Steve King raised next to nothing, with a scant amount for cash-on-hand.  It’s getting safer to assume that Harkin won’t have a strong opponent.  The Iowa Republican Senate primary could wind up being between businessman Steve Rathje, businessman Troy Cook, and part-time tae kwon do instructor Bob McDowell.  Um, yeah.

Louisiana: Here’s the summary that I penned for Daily Kingfish a little less than a month ago:

Bobby Jindal is running for Governor.  GOP Congressmen Charles Boustany and Jim McCrery have both taken their names out of the running.  GOP Congressman Richard Baker has a whopping $66,000 cash-on-hand.  And Jay Dardenne, who is already polling significantly behind the “vulnerable” [Senator Mary] Landrieu, is embarrassing himself.  In fact, the only Republicans who have demonstrated any interest are Woody Jenkins and Suzanne Haik Terrell, the two Republicans Landrieu has already defeated.

Since this summary, the only development has been Karl Rove trying to get the Democratic state Treasurer to switch Parties to run against Landrieu.  I suppose that even Rove doubts there are any strong Republican challengers.  The LA-GOP and NRSC really don’t have much to show for all of Landrieu’s supposed vulnerability.

Massachusetts: A token opponent has stepped forward:

Jeff Beatty, who took less than 30% of the vote in a 2006 Congressional race and raised less than $50,000.  The Congressional district Beatty ran in was the most favorable to Bush and least favorable to Kerry in 2004 of any of Massachusetts’ ten Congressional districts; so, if Beatty couldn’t crack 30% or manage any significant fundraising in that district, it’s unlikely that he’d be able to accomplish anything further statewide.

It’s not like the MA-GOP doesn’t have access to some known quantities: Paul Cellucci, Jane Swift, Kerry Healey, Andrew Card, Curt Schilling.  But they’ll settle, for now, for Jeff Beatty.

Michigan: To plagiarize from the Delaware entry above: “Nothing new then; nothing new now.”

Montana: Only two Republicans have been suggested as having the capability to give popular Senator Max Baucus a challenge: former Governor Mark Racicot, who has been silent; and, GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg, who CQPolitics characterized as “resisting GOP efforts to draft him into the race.”  The CQPolitics article also notes that former Montana House Republican leader Michael Lange was considered a possibility until his obscene tirade against Governor Brian Schweitzer.  For now, it’s all quiet on the Western front.

New Jersey: With known quantities like Christie Todd Whitman, Chris Christie, and members of the Kean family sitting out, it looks like there is an NJ-GOP Senate primary brewing between conservative assemblyman Michael Doherty and less-conservative real estate developer Anne Evans Estabrook.  Estabrook has the support of GOP Rep. Mike Ferguson, Kean family ties, and sizable personal wealth.  Doherty also has the support of several notable New Jersey Republicans, as well as the apparent backing of NJ’s conservative mouthpieces.  While Senator Frank Lautenberg should handily dispatch either, Estabrook’s personal wealth and more moderate positions (at least compared with Doherty) would likely make her the less easily-beatable opponent.

Rhode Island: To plagiarize from the Michigan and Delaware entries above: “Nothing new then; nothing new now.”

South Dakota: With Senator Tim Johnson’s recovery moving along steadily, South Dakota Republicans are beginning to step up to the plate.  Two have indicated interest in a run: state representative Joel Dykstra and businessman Sam Kephart.  With Tim Johnson’s existing popularity coupled with sympathy from his impressive recovery, it is doubtful that either of these challengers would be formidable, while far-right conservative Gov. Mike Rounds remains mum on possible Senate plans.

West Virginia: About a month ago, I summed up the situation in West Virginia:

With Shelley Moore Capito taking a pass on a Senate bid, Republicans are now looking to GOP Secretary of State Betty Ireland and multiple-time-loser John Raese to take on popular Democratic Senator Jay Rockefeller.  In 2004, Ireland squeaked to a 52-48 victory; and, in 2006, Raese lost to Senator Robert Byrd by a 64-34 thrashing.  Not exactly rainmakers on the WV-GOP bench.

Nothing has changed since that point.

So, among the thirteen seats discussed here, ten states (Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Rhode Island, and West Virginia) currently offer no Republican opposition or only token opposition.  Two states (New Jersey and South Dakota) see Republican opposition in the more-than-token but less-than-strong range.  And one state (open seat Colorado) sees a Republican contender, though the race still favors the Democrat and is the likeliest of seats up for election in 2008 to switch control (from GOP to Democrat).  With the dog days of summer ahead, the NRSC just doesn’t seem too concerned with candidate recruitment.

[Originally posted yesterday on my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

In early February, the Guru offered his first Retirement Watch rundown, and in mid-March there was the first Retirement Watch Update.  Allow the Guru to present you with the brand new May Retirement Watch Update.

Key Statistic: Courtesy of Swing State Project, since the 1988 election cycle, mid-term election cycles have seen an average of 4.8 Senate retirements per cycle, while Presidential election cycles have seen an average of 7.7 Senate retirements per cycle.  With only Colorado’s Wayne Allard officially out, statistical trends suggest that we should see a few more retirement announcements.

(See below for the full update.)

UP Virginia’s John Warner: Most notably, the five-term incumbent raised a mere $500 in the first quarter of 2007.  This is a gigantic red flag.  Further, Warner just today announced the departure of his Chief of Staff to the private sector.  He has continually suggested that he is still unsure of his future electoral plans, but it just takes too much effort for a longtime incumbent Senator to raise next-to-nothing for a quarter.  Barring an unexpected fundraising surge in Q2, a retirement announcement is quite likely.

UP New Mexico’s Pete Domenici: Domenici has not been vocal about a re-election bid, particularly considering his involvement in the Attorney Purge scandal.  Two factors suggest a hightened likelihood of retirement here.  First, since Domenici’s involvement in the scandal has come to light, his approval rating (previously comfortably in the mid-to-high 60’s) has been in a consistent and unabated free fall, plunging from a 43-point net approval in November 2006 to a 16-point net approval last month.  Next month’s polling data will offer further insight into the momentum of the trend.  Second, Domenici had a lackluster fundraising quarter for a longtime incumbent facing a potentially tough re-election bid.  Even the Republican netroots are suggesting that Domenici ought to consider retirement.  While there is no end in sight for Domenici’s continued negative press coverage and while his approvals continue to sink, his retirement may ultimately hinge on whether the Democrats field a strong opponent, and soon.

UP Idaho’s Larry Craig: Craig delayed his 2008 electoral plan announcement from “this summer” to “late summer or fall.”  Also, regardless of how inexpensive the Idaho media market is, by any measure Craig had a very weak Q1 fundraising take, suggesting that his heart isn’t in a re-election bid.  It also doesn’t help perceptions that GOP Lt. Gov. Jim Risch is chomping at the bit for Craig to retire so that he can enter the race.

EVEN Mississippi’s Thad Cochran: Fundraising has been the biggest signal that Cochran may in fact run for another term, as he nearly met his fundraising goal for the first quarter of 2007 while his likely understudy, GOP Rep. Chip Pickering, raised only a meager sum in Q1.  However, two subtle hints suggest a Cochran retirement is more likely than some may suspect.  First, Karl Rove’s presentation on the Senate’s “Republican Defense” states included Mississippi, likely to only be competitive if Cochran retired.  Did Rove have inside info on Cochran’s decision-making process?  Second, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania suggested that he would be the senior Republican Senator on the Appropriations Committee in 2010, despite Cochran’s committee seniority.  Did Specter have inside info on Cochran’s decision-making process?

EVEN Nebraska’s Chuck Hagel: Since Hagel’s notorious non-announcement, he has suggested that he is ramping up his fundraising to prepare for a Senate re-election bid.  But state Attorney General Jon Bruning has demonstrated early strength in a possible NE-GOP Senate primary.  And Hagel’s approval-disapproval has seen better days.  Meanwhile, Hagel’s own comments as well as his time spent with New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg has fueled speculation of an independent Presidential bid.

EVEN Utah’s Orrin Hatch: Yes, Utah’s Orrin Hatch.  Documented rumors have suggested that Hatch has been “campaigning” in a sense for the position of U.S. Attorney General should Alberto Gonzales resign, be fired, or otherwise lose the position.  An unknown, to be sure, but something to keep an eye on.

DOWN Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander: Alexander declared in early April that he “plans to run for re-election in 2008.”

DOWN Alaska’s Ted Stevens: While Stevens’ advanced age will perpetually keep him on the Retirement Watch radar, the fact that he has just recently taken lengths to distance himself from his son’s involvement in a corruption scandal rather than defend his son suggests that he’s still most interested in politically protecting himself, suggesting that he plans on making good on his threat to run for re-election.

With the dust settling, the Retirement Watch breakdown currently stands at:

Definitely retiring: Wayne Allard (CO)

On Retirement Watch: Thad Cochran (MS), Larry Craig (ID), Pete Domenici (NM), Chuck Hagel (NE), Jim Inhofe (OK), John Warner (VA)

Running (or most likely running) for re-election: Lamar Alexander (TN), Saxby Chambliss (GA), Norm Coleman (MN), Susan Collins (ME), John Cornyn (TX), Elizabeth Dole (NC), Mike Enzi (WY), Lindsey Graham (SC), Mitch McConnell (KY), Pat Roberts (KS), Jeff Sessions (AL), Gordon Smith (OR), Ted Stevens (AK), John Sununu (NH)

(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)

Numbers courtesy of The Washington Post and the Senate 2008 Guru.

January ’07
DSCC: $2.2 million
NRSC: $0.9 million

February ’07
DSCC: $2.7 million
NRSC: $2.4 million

March ’07
DSCC: $8.8 million
NRSC: $3.7 million

Q1 Take
DSCC: $13.7 million
NRSC: $ 7.0 million

Cash-on-hand at end of March ’07
DSCC: $9.50 million ($6 million debt)
NRSC: $3.45 million ($0 debt)

Observations:
1) DSCC had a better March than the NRSC had for its entire Q1
2) DSCC’s cash-on-hand advantage is larger than the debt difference (so let’s pay off some of that debt and get it out of the way!)
3) Who has the momentum is clear.

[Cross posted at my blog, Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

Let’s revisit candidate filing for the 2006 cycle.  At this point in the 2006 cycle (i.e. April 1, 2005), 9 of the 28 listed Senate non-incumbent challengers had filed, or just about one-third.  At this point, the Republicans had seen Bob Corker, Mark Kennedy, and Tom Kean Jr. file.  The Democrats saw Amy Klobuchar, Bob Casey, and Sheldon Whitehouse file.  In other words, while there is lots of time left to recruit candidates and to see strong challengers file, both parties should have a couple promising candidates to point to at this point.

The Democrats, right now, can point to Mark Udall well-situated in Colorado for a pick-up.  In New Hampshire, Sprintin’ John Sununu lost in a hypothetical match-up to former Governor Jeanne Shaheen by 10 points, suggesting that she is the #1 potential recruit for the Democrats – though a spirited primary is underway with promising candidates.  In Minnesota, Al Franken went from being down 20 points in mid-February, right after announcing, to being only down 10 points a month later.  Mid-April polling will give us a fuller indication of the direction of this possible trend.  Additionally, strong candidates are considering races in Alabama, Maine, and Nebraska.  There is clearly still much work to be done as the year goes in, particularly in states like Kentucky, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia if Democrats are to take full advantage of the political opportunities before them.

And how are the NRSC and the Republicans doing?  Well, not so good.  There are twelve Democratic incumbents and one open seat.  Let’s run through all thirteen potential battlegrounds, starting with the open seat.

Colorado (open seat): The CO-GOP just saw their top candidate back out of the race and back-ups like state AG Suthers have some conservatives less than enthused.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Arkansas (Senator Mark Pryor): Just yesterday, it was reported that former Governor and Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee, perhaps the only candidate that a weakened AR-GOP could put up to make the race competitive, has ruled out a Senate challenge.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Delaware (Senator Joe Biden): GOP Rep. Mike Castle is perhaps the only Republican who could offer even a somewhat challenging race against Biden, but he seems to have indicated, for yet another cycle, that he isn’t interested.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Illinois (Senator Richard Durbin): The IL-GOP is reduced to begging wealthy conservatives to martyr themselves in a self-funded campaign to prevent Durbin from having a total cake-walk re-election.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Iowa (Senator Tom Harkin): Right now, the IA-GOP Senate primary consists of two token candidates in tongue-tied conservative Steve Rathje and part-time tae kwon do instructor Bob McDowell.  Iowa’s several flawed Republican Congresspeople and former Congresspeople are all still biding their time.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Louisiana (Senator Mary Landrieu): Senator Landrieu is supposed to be the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent.  Then how come nobody has stepped up to her yet?  Bobby Jindal seems to be the state’s most popular Republican.  But he is running for Governor, not Senate.  And against a statewide GOP officeholder and potential opponent, LA Sec. of State Jay Dardenne, Landrieu vastly exceeds expectations, winning 53-38, as some Republican Congresspeople take their names out of the running.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Massachusetts (Senator John Kerry): There are two legitimate challengers (Harvard-Pilgrim CEO Charles Baker and former Governor Paul Cellucci) and one “spectacle” challenger (Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling) that could make a race against Senator Kerry.  Baker and Schilling have taken their names out of the running and Cellucci has indicated no interest, particularly in endorsing Rudy Guiliani for President over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  The rest of the MA-GOP is fairly irrelevant-to-nonexistant right now.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Michigan (Senator Carl Levin): There hasn’t been a single substantial peep of noise from the MI-GOP regarding a Senate challenger; and speculation rests primarily (if not only) on the wives of former Michigan politicians.  In the words of police officers everywhere, “Nothing to see here, folks.”  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Montana (Senator Max Baucus): Despite the redness of Montana in Presidential races, the MT-Dems have had major successes including the races of Governor Brian Schweitzer and Senator Jon Tester, as well as significant shifts in the Montana state Legislature.  Also, Baucus is extremely popular in Montana.  The only candidate who could even give Baucus a challenge is GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg, who the NRSC must be courting like crazy, only to get zero sustained interest so far.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

New Jersey (Senator Frank Lautenberg): I expected the NJ-GOP to kick this potential race into gear early, but we’ve heard practically nothing from them.  Lautenberg’s relatively low approvals aren’t as big of a concern as they’d be in another state, as NJ-Dems can get (re-)elected with low approvals (see: 2006’s Menendez v. Kean Jr.).  And the NJ-GOP’s strongest potential candidate, U.S. Attorney Chris Christie, has taken himself out of the running, leaving, at best, a B-team for the NJ-GOP and NRSC to look at.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Rhode Island (Senator Jack Reed): The RI-GOP has been even quieter than the MI-GOP.  In 2006, moderate-to-liberal Republican Lincoln Chafee got bounced primarily for having an R next to his name.  Reed is very popular and the RI-GOP bench is slim.  Again, “Nothing to see here.”  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

South Dakota (Senator Tim Johnson): Senator Johnson is extremely popular and recovering from a serious health malady.  It is unclear how the SD-GOP will approach this race.  A political attack on Johnson while he is recovering could seriously backfire.  Meanwhile, it is unclear if Johnson will run for re-election or not, though indications are that he will, barring a health setback.  Had ultra-conservative Governor Mike Rounds gotten in the race early, he might have stood a chance, but now the SD-GOP and NRSC have to sit on their hands and wait.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

West Virginia (Senator Jay Rockefeller): The WV-GOP has been almost as quiet as the MI-GOP and RI-GOP.  At most, they have rumors, but not a single WV Republican has stepped forward, as they wait to see if GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito wants to take a shot.  As Capito and other WV Republicans expect this term to be Senator Robert Byrd’s last, they’ll likely wait out that seat for an open race than challenge Rockefeller.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

So there you go.  The Democrats certainly have some recruiting work to do in some key states, but they have also seen some early success with the ball rolling in other states.  Meanwhile, the NRSC is objectively a resounding 0-for-13 so far in challenges to open seats and Democratic-held seats.