Tag: Tom Emmer

Minnesota Public Radio/Humphrey Institute (8/25-29, likely voters, 5/13-16 in parens):

Mark Dayton (D): 34 (35)

Tom Emmer (R): 34 (31)

Tom Horner (IP): 13 (9)

Undecided/Other: 19

(MoE: ±3.6%)

One red flag from this poll is its sample composition — it pegs the Minnesota midterm electorate at 46% Republican, 41% Democratic, and 13% independent. An early August poll by SurveyUSA had a partisan composition of 36D-32R-28I, and showed Dayton leading by 46-32. Indeed, Dayton has been leading in the last five polls of the race, the last three of which by margins varying between 9 and 14 points — and that includes Rasmussen. So I’m not convinced by this poll’s top lines, especially considering the pounding that Emmer’s been taking on the airwaves in the past two weeks.

That’s not to say that Dayton is incapable of fumbling this one — it’s just that most of the evidence suggests that he has yet to do so.

AZ-Sen: Here’s an internal poll from a few days ago that we missed: Randy Parraz, running in the Dem primary, commissioned a one-day robopoll by a firm called Winning Connections. It found Rodney Glassman in the lead with 20, Parraz at 17, John Dougherty at 11, and Cathy Eden at 8. Forty-four percent are undecided. Glassman went up on the air with his first ad last week, touting his endorsement from the Arizona Republic and his military credentials. Parraz is also now on the air, with ads in both English and Spanish, talking about his fight against SB 1070 and the notorious Sherriff Joe Arpaio. NWOTSOTB for either campaign.

Meanwhile, John McCain has some boring new 60-second positive spot out – like he really needs to introduce himself to Arizona voters? As CQ says, “the tone and content of this spot send the message that McCain is a politician who doesn’t have to look over his shoulder to see if anybody’s gaining on him.” NWOTSOTB.

FL-Sen: Nancy Pelosi’s recorded a robocall for Kendrick Meek (not a surprise), and for Jeff Greene, it’s Star Jones to the rescue. Yeah, I’m scratching my head about that one, too.

KY-Sen: Countless law enforcement officials (police and prosecutors alike) are hammering Rand Paul for his claim that drugs are not “a real pressing issue” in Kentucky. Apparently, things in the real world are a little different than in retard libertarian fantasy land, where Paul is married to Ayn Rand and their son Alan Greenspan just received 500 shares of Taggart Transcontinental stock for his bar mitzvah. Anyhow, at least in part because of all this, the statewide Fraternal Order of Police just endorsed Conway, who promises to hit Rand hard.

NV-Sen: Harry Reid has a new ad out (NWOTSOTB) hitting Angle for her support of SSP – the bad kind of SSP, of course (Social Security privatization). Sad to see Reid acting like such a pathetic coward on the issue of the Cordoba House, though – not that I really expect better from him, though.

CO-Gov: Hahah! This is going to be a laugh riot. Republican gubernatorial nominee (weird to type out, as Colorado Pols notes) Dan Maes has to pick a… lol… running mate by tomorrow evening. This could produce the funniest ticket matchup since H. Ross Perot tapped Admiral Stockdale twenty years ago. Anyhow, Colorado Pols has some good suggestions for Maes, including one state senator who is opposed to telecommuting (I fucking wish I were kidding) – perfect, because Maes is freaked out by bicycle commuters.

FL-Gov: Freakazoid Lex Luthor clone Rick Scott has emerged from his Fortress of Squalitude with a new 30-second spot designed to heal divisions in this country and promote greater tolerance and understanding. Oh, please don’t tell me you believed that for a second, did you? Scott’s ad, cutely titled “Obama’s Mosque,” is a scum-drenched attempt to fearmonger his way to victory in the gubernatorial primary.

Meanwhile, Alex Sink is reportedly set to tap former prosecutor and state Sen. Rod Smith as her running mate. Smith himself unsuccessfully sought the Dem gube nod in 2006. Click the link for more background on him and how the pick went down.

MN-Gov: The Alliance for a Better Minnesota, a Dem-backed group, is hammering GOP nominee Tom Emmer for all the votes he’s missed in the state legislature. There’s some serious muscle behind this ad, too – it’s a half-million dollar buy for the next two weeks. (Props to the Star Tribune’s Baird Helgeson for reporting that info.)

AZ-05: I’m a huge Deadwood fan, and one of my favorite all-time lines is of course uttered by Al Swearengen, who says: “Announcing your plans is a good way to hear God laugh.” Cue this story:

Former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert is essentially declaring victory in the District 5 GOP primary, and said he is cutting his advertising budget for the final two weeks of the campaign because he is so confident in victory that he wants to save his money for the general election match-up with incumbent Democratic Rep. Harry Mitchell. His main opponents, businessman Jim Ward and former Scottsdale City Councilwoman Susan Bitter Smith, say the race is still up for grabs.

CO-04: Though outside groups have been up on the airwaves for a while, Rep. Betsy Markey is now out with her first ad of her own, an anti-TARP spot which calls bailouts “offensive.” NWOTSOTB.

GA-02: Republican Mike Keown is touting an internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies which purports to show Rep. Sanford Bishop up just 50-44.

NJ-03: This is the sort of grumpy whining you expect from newcomer pols who don’t understand that politics – still – ain’t beanbag. Still, it’s a little surprising to see former NFL players act like such weenies. Anyhow, John Runyan is moaning because he’s sure that Dem Rep. John Adler is responsible for indie teabagger Peter DeStefano’s candidacy. Runyan’s team couldn’t knock DeStefano off the ballot on account of his petitions, so now they are “considering a lawsuit alleging that those who signed may not have known that DeStefano was unaffiliated with a formal tea-party group.” Uh, is that even a cognizable legal argument? Good luck with that.

NY-14: I guess Reshma Saujani missed the day they taught “Not Fucking Up” at First-Time Candidate School. Saujani put out a statement decrying Carolyn Maloney’s supposed “silence” on the Cordoba House. Yeah, you saw this one coming: Maloney put out a statement in support of the project almost two weeks ago. Better luck next time!

NY-State Sen: Good news: A poll from a group called the New Roosevelt Initiative (taken by Red Horse Strategies) shows scumbag state senator Pedro Espada – you know, the guy who led the ill-fated coup last year to hand control back to the Republicans – tied with progressive activist Gustavo Rivera at 32% apiece in the Democratic primary. Unfortunately, as Albany Project writer Roatti notes, there’s a third candidate in the race, Daniel Padernacht, who may be unintentionally offering Espada a lifeline by splitting the anti-incumbent vote.

DCCC: We mentioned this fundraiser a little while back (see Amazing Daily Digest, Issue #88!), but now we have the goods: President Obama raised a cool million for the D-Trip at a star-studded Hollywood fundraiser, featuring the likes of Steven Spielberg and Barbara Streisand.

Polltopia: Blargh. PPP has switched to a full-bore likely voter model, and the results ain’t pretty for Team Blue. Go read Tom’s post for the full details.

• CO-Sen: On the Democratic side, we have a heart-warming love-in between Michael Bennet and Andrew Romanoff, bitter rivals until about 48 hours ago. Romanoff said supporting Bennet was “an easy call,” while Bennet praised Romanoff for his stances on the issues, especially campaign finance reform. On the Republican side, well, there are no plans for a comparable unity event between Ken Buck and Jane Norton. Buck did raise some eyebrows with news that he went the full-on Paulist last year, though, lauding the gold standard and saying the main thing that would keep us from doing it is because there isn’t enough gold available to do so (well, maybe we could stimulate the economy by hiring hundreds of thousands of grizzled prospectors to go out and find us that gold…).

• DE-Sen: Is this a sign of unprecedented confidence in Delaware, as the GOP is spinning it… or worries that they need to bolster their preferred candidate Mike Castle, over unelectable-in-November Christine O’Donnell in the primary? The national party is sending three full-time staffers to work on the ground game in Delaware, which is three more than they do most cycles.

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek is out with an internal poll from Diane Feldman, giving him an 8-point lead over Jeff Greene, 38-30, after a week in which Greene’s yacht (and the vomit that it was caked with) seemed to be the main story figuring in the press about the Senate race this week. (Perhaps confirming these numbers: Greene is now engaged in the last refuge of a guy about to lose a race, which is to start threatening libel suits, here against the St. Petersburg Times for its look into his real estate transactions.) Meek’s also bolstered by two new anti-Greene IEs for TV spots, for a total of $260K from “Florida Is Not For Sale.”

• KY-Sen: The GOP seems to have let Rand Paul off his leash a little in the last few weeks, but between his Fancy Farm performance and some new items, they may be rethinking a return to his undisclosed location. Paul just said that eastern Kentucky’s drug problem (where meth runs rampant and marijuana growth is common) is not “a pressing issue,” and he topped that off by ditching local affiliate Fox reporters after taping a national Fox TV appearance in Lexington, in their own studio.

• PA-Sen: If you’ve been wondering where the DSCC was going to launch its first IEs of this year, Pennsylvania seems like it’s a good place to start. They’re spending $452K on running an ad highlighting Pat Toomey’s Wall Street background (good for 300 GRPs in Philly, 400 in Pittsburgh, and more in selected smaller markets). This will let Joe Sestak focus on marshalling his resources, as is his wont, while keeping the pressure on Toomey, who’s been advertising continually.

• SC-Sen: In case you were wondering if South Carolina could get any more farcical, Dem nominee Alvin Greene just finally got indicited on his pending obscenity charges for showing porn to a college student in a computer lab. I have no idea what the trial’s timetable is, but maybe Dems could actually get a new candidate in there if he’s convicted before November?

• CO-Gov: Ruh roh. The Colorado rumor mill has Dan Maes, the guy who swore he wouldn’t drop out, meeting with the state GOP about… dropping out. They’ve already been conspicuous in their silent non-support of Maes, who won Tuesday’s primary. Despite the meeting, though, Colorado Pols still seems to think that the posture from the Maes camp is one of a man who isn’t dropping out, and he’s meeting with them to try and get some additional support. At any rate, something would need to happen by Sep. 3, at which point the November ballot is finalized.

• MD-Gov: Fundraising numbers are out in Maryland. Republican Bob Ehrlich has almost kept pace with Dem incumbent Martin O’Malley over the course of this year, with Ehrlich raising $3.2 million and O’Malley raising $3.3 million in ’10 (and O’Malley couldn’t fundraise until April, because of the legislative session). O’Malley’s been building up funds for a longer time, though; O’Malley’s CoH advantage is 3:1, with $6.7 million banked compared to $2 million for Ehrlich.

• WY-Gov: Hmmm, this should turn the dominant media narrative about next week’s Wyoming GOP gubernatorial primary into “OMG! Palin/Bush proxy battle!” The Bush in question, though is George H.W. (41) Bush, who extended an endorsement today to Colin Simpson, the state House speaker and son of his long-time pal ex-Sen. Alan Simpson.

• MI-01: The final count’s over in MI-01, and it’s Dan Benishek by a whopping 15 votes, over state Sen. Jason Allen. The ball’s in Allen’s court now; he has until Sunday morning to file a written request for a recount that would need to allege mistakes or fraud.

• TX-17: Here’s an interesting stance from Republican challenger Bill Flores, especially considering this is a red enough district that it may be one of the few places in the country where John Boehner has positive ratings. But in response to questions whether he’d support His Orangeness for Speaker if the GOP had a majority in the House, Flores ducked the question, saying he’d cross that bridge if he got elected.

• Rasmussen:

• CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 43%, Dan Maes (R) 31%, Tom Tancredo (I) 18%

• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 47%, Linda McMahon (R) 40%

• GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 42%, Nathan Deal (R) 51%

• MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 45%, Tom Emmer (R) 36%, Tom Horner (I) 10%

• Colorado: What looked like a hotly contested race on the Democratic side of the Senate race (thanks to a mixed bag of poll results, including an Andrew Romanoff lead according to SurveyUSA) turned into a fairly comfortable win for Michael Bennet in the end. Propped up by Obama and DSCC help, and weathering a last-minute patented hit job from the New York Times, Bennet won 54-46. Maybe this’ll help put to sleep two memes that are getting very very tiresome: that it’s an “anti-incumbent year,” and that Obama endorsees all lose. Bennet will face off against Ken Buck, who defeated Jane Norton in the GOP primary 52-48. Polls haven’t been conclusive in terms of whether Dems should have wanted to face off against Buck or Norton. Buck gets lumped in with Sharron Angle and Rand Paul because of his teabagger proclivities, but he’s considerably more skilled than they are; nevertheless, he still seems gaffe-prone and irritable, so I’ll take him.

Dan Maes won the GOP gubernatorial nod, 51-49. The only way things could have gone better for Dems in the GOP gubernatorial race would be if Maes’ margin had been small enough to force a recount. The risk here was that irreparably-damaged Scott McInnis would win and then, being a good GOP team player, promptly drop out, allowing a better Republican (Jane Norton?) to take his place, which would then drive Tom Tancredo out of his indie bid. Maes has vowed to fight on, though, and his underwhelming presence is likely to keep Tancredo in the race, meaning not one but two guys not just spewing the crazy, but splitting the crazy vote and ensuring Gov. John Hickenlooper.

Finally, in Colorado, the GOP House primaries were uneventful wins for establishment candidates, with Ryan Frazier beating Lang Sias 64-36 in CO-07 and Scott Tipton beating Bob McConnell (Sarah Palin’s other losing endorsee yesterday) winning 56-44 in CO-03.

• Connecticut: Probably the biggest surprise of the night was the 58-42 victory by former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy over Ned Lamont in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, seeing as how Lamont had led all polls (although polls did capture a late and rapid Malloy surge). The lesson here mostly boils down to one more race where the organizational power of the local political establishment was able to overcome the money of a rich outsider, but there’s one other story here that Dem message-setters will hopefully notice. Judging by when polls saw the race tigthen, the wheels seemed to come off Lamont’s campaign with a late round of attack ads that focused on layoffs at Lamont’s company. Taking not just that but the air war in the PA-12 special in mind (where Mark Critz won in large measure by hammering Tim Burns over outsourcing), it really seems like, despite this year’s overarching CW, voters will go for a “career politician” over a self-described job-creating outsider businessman, once it’s made clear that said businessman’s interest in jobs only extends as far as his own bottom line.

Malloy will face a flawed Tom Foley in November, and based on general election polling recently should be considered a slight favorite. Foley won the GOP primary narrowly over Lt. Governor Michael Fedele and Oz Griebel 42-39-19. Also, for the GOP, Linda McMahon unsurprisingly won the GOP primary in the face of Rob Simmons’ half-assed comeback-type-thing. Simmons and Paulist economist Peter Schiff did keep her under 50% though: 49-28-23. McMahon faces Richard Blumenthal in November, who already launched his first TV ad this morning, shirking a no-doubt-tempting smackdown in favor of… what’s that thing that McMahon doesn’t have… oh, yeah. Dignity. The three GOP House primaries led to expected victories for Janet Peckinpaugh in CT-02 (43-38 over Daria Novak), Dan Debicella in CT-04 (60-24 over Rob Merkle), and Sam Caligiuri in CT-05 (40-32-28 over Justin Bernier and Mark Greenberg).

• Georgia: The main event in Georgia was the GOP gubernatorial runoff, and hoo boy, did it live up to its billing. The two candidates finished in recount territory at 50-50, with Nathan Deal leading Karen Handel by 2,500 votes. Unfortunately, Handel just conceded this morning rather than following through with the recount, so Dem nominee Roy Barnes doesn’t get to spend weeks watching them keep fighting it out. Pundits will no doubt focus on the proxy war aspects of the battle (“Huck beats Palin!”), but the outcome seems to have more to do with Deal consolidating conservative votes outside the Atlanta area, where Handel’s anti-corruption, anti-good-ol’-boyism message may have fallen flat.

We also had outcomes in three GOP House primaries, one to determine the nominee in a Likely Dem race, and the others to determine who’s the next Rep. in dark-red districts. In GA-07, establishment-backed former John Linder CoS Rob Woodall beat teabagging radio talker Jody Hice, 56-44. In GA-09, Rep. Tom Graves won his fourth (and probably final) faceoff against Lee Hawkins, 55-45. And in GA-12, Ray McKinney beat Carl Smith 62-38 for the right to take on Rep. John Barrow. If you want to argue that this year’s crop of Republican candidates is radioactive, you don’t need to look any further than McKinney; he’s a nuclear power plant project manager by day.

• Minnesota: Finally, there was only one race worth watching last night in Minnesota, and it turned out to be a barnburner: the DFL gubernatorial primary. State House speaker (and DFL endorsee) Margaret Anderson Kelliher led most of the night based on her strength in the Twin Cities, but as results trickled in from the rest of the state, ex-Sen. Mark Dayton crept into the lead. In the end, despite having convincing pre-primary poll leads, Dayton won 41-40-18 over Kelliher and Matt Entenza. Dayton pretty clearly benefited not only from his statewide familiarity, but also from picking a running mate from Duluth, where he cleaned up, late in the game. With a 7,000 margin separating them, Kelliher didn’t concede last night… but she did this morning, meaning Dayton faces the increasingly woeful GOP nominee Tom Emmer in November. The most recent spate of polls has given Dayton double-digits advantages in that matchup.

• AK-Sen: Wow, now we’ve got Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin working in harmony in at least one place: Huckabee just endorsed Joe Miller, the little-known right-wing challenger to Lisa Murkowski in the GOP Senate primary.

• AZ-Sen: J.D. Hayworth is out with a new ad in a last-ditch effort to make up some ground on John McCain, and he’s relying on time-honored tradition of pulling a few of his opponents’ words out of context. In this case, he swipes the passage “I chose lying” from McCain’s 2002 audiobook, although in the book it was talking about the South Carolina confederate flag controversy, and Hayworth just slaps it down in an ad about immigration. The ad buy is for $365K.

• CA-Sen: This isn’t a surprise in terms of which of the candidates they endorsed, but it might be interesting that the Chamber of Commerce decided there was enough of a shot in this race for them to weigh in. They’re backing Carly Fiorina in the California Senate race, based on, y’know, her long track record of success at Hewlett-Packard.

• FL-Sen: A Mason-Dixon poll released late last week gives some hope to Kendrick Meek, who other polls had shown had fallen behind billionaire weirdo Jeff Greene in the Democratic primary. Their poll (conducted for “Leadership Florida and the Florida Press Association”) gives Meek a 33-29 lead. Greene’s main problem seems to be that the press keeps on doing stories about, well, all those things that Greene has been doing for the last couple decades; yesterday the St. Petersburg Times looked at Greene’s involvement in a California condo deal that belies his claims that he was a high-level investor and not involved in any of the myriad ground-level predatory lending transactions that, when all added together, helped create the real estate asset bubble. Greene’s defense? “I don’t follow what happens after the sale…. All I care about is that I get my money.” Finally, whether Greene or Meek wins the primary, one more problem they’ll have to deal with is the movement of prominent Democratic money to indie Charlie Crist. Pollster Mark Penn hasn’t been anyone’s image of a reliable or useful Democrat lately, but he is at least a prominent Democrat; he’s now raising for Crist.

• KY-Sen: Will “I worship you, Aqua Buddha” become the newest political catchphrase that sweeps the nation? GQ has a hilarious (if somewhat disturbing) look back at Rand Paul’s hellraising days at an undergrad at Baylor (a school from which, by the way, he doesn’t have a bachelor’s degree). It’ll be interesting to see if this actually creates any blowback for Paul.

• WA-Sen: Interesting: another endorsement for the once-moderate Dino Rossi from another celebrity on the right in the Senate. Unlike Jim DeMint (whose backing he got last week), who has something of a fundraising network that comes with his endorsement, Tom Coburn (who just announced his support) just has cachet with right-wing fanboys. More evidence that Rossi, while publicly pretending to be focused only on the general, is scrambling to shore up his right flank before the Top 2 primary where he faces competition from various teabaggers, most significantly Sarah Palin-backed Clint Didier.

• FL-Gov: That Mason-Dixon poll had a Republican gubernatorial portion as well, and they do provide some confirmation for the sense that Bill McCollum is worming his way back into this thing, with not much time left on the clock. Rick Scott leads McCollum only 37-31. Worth noting: it doesn’t seem to have anything to do with people taking notice of Scott’s legacy of Medicare fraud at Columbia/HCA, but rather, McCollum consolidating the Republican Hispanic vote (where he leads 3-1), probably thanks to Scott’s demagoguery on the immigration issue and McCollum’s more even-handed stance. Meanwhile, not that Bud Chiles was gaining much momentum, but explaining this could be a big distraction: his former leadership of innocuous-sounding charity HOPE Worldwide, which it turns out is an arm of the cultish International Churches of Christ.

• IA-Gov: Social conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats ran a surprisingly close race against Terry Branstad in the GOP gubernatorial primary and then threatened an independent run when he didn’t receive the proper amount of fealty post-primary. However, he announced last Friday that he won’t attempt a third-party bid (which would probably give the advantage in the race back to Chet Culver). He’ll focus his energies on defeating members of the Iowa Supreme Court, in retaliation for its gay marriage ruling.

• MN-Gov: If there’s one campaign out there in need of a shakeup, it’s Tom Emmer’s, as polls have made clear that the GOP gubernatorial nominee’s trajectory post-nomination has been aimed almost straight down. Old campaign manager Tom Mason departed for a farm upstate, replaced by former ’08 Norm Coleman CM Cullen Sheehan.

• PA-Gov: Remember Sam Rohrer, the socially conservative state Rep. who persisted in the GOP primary against AG Tom Corbett (and lost big)? His supporters still haven’t given up hope, and, although Pennsylvania law prohibits him from a ballot line in November, are now launching an independent write-in campaign for Rohrer. (Rohrer hasn’t endorsed the idea, but isn’t dissuading them either.) The write-in campaign is a particularly difficult beast, though, meaning that it’s likely that Rohrer wouldn’t pick up more than a couple percent, and the race would have to get closer than it currently is for that to harm Corbett’s odds against Dem Dan Onorato.

• RI-Gov: Brown University is out with a poll on the Rhode Island gubernatorial race, and one thing is clear: no current Republican is going to win the race. Democratic state Treasurer Frank Caprio leads independent ex-Republican ex-Sen. Lincoln Chafee, by a bare 28-27 margin. For some reason, they seemed to poll the two Republicans jungle-style, but it really doesn’t matter as both are non-factors: former Don Carcieri communications director John Robitaille is at 7 and ex-state Rep. Victor Moffitt is at 2.

• FL-08: Jeb! backs Web! Ex-gov. Jeb Bush cut an ad in support of ex-state Sen. Daniel Webster, who, with his dithering, managed to blow his early shot at consolidating GOP establishment support in the primary. Instead, he’s one of many guys stuffed in the clown car, fighting for the right to oppose Rep. Alan Grayson.

• ID-01: The omission of Raul Labrador from the NRCC’s Young Guns, which seems to admit any Republican who has enough opposable digits to successfully operate a telephone and call donors, seemed like it was becoming too embarrassing for even the NRCC’s skilled writers to spin away. Labrador says he “changed his mind” and is now willing to join the entourage. Labrador, who has $69K, is only entering at the “On the Radar” level, though, the bottom of the pyramid.

• IL-14: State Sen. Randy Hultgren thought he struck some electoral gold when he found a contribution to Rep. Bill Foster from fellow Dem Maxine Waters for $1,000, which then demanded Foster give back. Unfortunately, there’s something to be said for basic reading skills: the contribution wasn’t to Bill Foster, but rather to former music industry exec Gary Foster, who’s now head of a charitable org called Upliftment Jamaica. Naturally, the Hultgren camp blamed the FEC for forcing them to screw up.

• LA-02: Sen. Mary Landrieu announced her backing for state Rep. Cedric Richmond in the Dem primary in the 2nd, more evidence that the Dem establishment is trying to unite behind Richmond and put the squeeze on primary rival state Rep. Juan LaFonta.

• MI-09: As part of the transition from primary to general election, one item that’s high on GOP nominee Rocky Raczkowski’s to-do list is to walk back his previous birtherism. After telling Politico in a post-primary interview that he’d “love” to see Obama’s birth certificate, he’s now out with a statement that Politico took his out of context… without, of course, explaining what context such a comment should be taken in.

• OH-18: Stop the presses! (And hide the women!) Bill Clinton adviser turned Fox News talking head Dick Morris has announced he’ll be making appearances on behalf of at least 40 Republican candidates this year. That includes a fundraiser for Rep. Zack Space’s opponent, state Sen. Bob Gibbs, later this month.

• RI-01, RI-02: That Brown gubernatorial poll also looked at the Democratic primaries in the 1st and 2nd, although the margin of error is terribly high (7.4% in RI-01). In the 1st, Providence mayor David Cicilline is in command of the Dem field, leading former state party chair William Lynch 32-11 15, with 11 for businessman Anthony Gemma and 5 for state Rep. David Segal (who just got the local SEIU‘s backing, by the way). In the 2nd, Rep. Jim Langevin looks likely to weather his primary challenge with ease; he leads state Rep. Elizabeth Dennigan 55-12.

• SBA List: Anti-abortion group the Susan B. Anthony List has come out with polls of one open Senate race and three House races featuring Dem incumbents (where the common thread seems that all the Dems are anti-abortion), courtesy of that Republican pollster with the oh-so-creative name, The Polling Company. They find Dan Coats leading Brad Ellsworth 50-35 in the Indiana Senate race. The House races are an interesting mix of the good, the bad, and the so-so. For the good, Rep. Joe Donnelly seems to start on solid ground in IN-02, where he leads state Rep. Jackie Walorski 52-35. For the bad, Rep. Steve Driehaus may just be the most DOA of any House Democrat, as this is one more poll giving him a double-digit deficit against ex-Rep. Steve Chabot (51-41). And for the so-so, Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (last seen losing in a too-good-to-be-true internal from GOP opponent Mike Kelly) is leading Kelly by a pretty plausible 46-42.

• Blue Dogs: The Blue Dogs handed out a load of endorsements to Dem candidates, looking to replenish their soon-to-be-depleted ranks (thanks to a number of retirements, as well as many of their members being in many of the nation’s most competitive races). Endorsees are Steve Raby in AL-05, Chad Causey in AR-01, Roy Herron in TN-08, Trent van Haaften in IN-08, and Stephene Moore in KS-03.

• Rasmussen:

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 37%, Mike Castle (R) 49%

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 46%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 36%

• IA-Gov: Chet Culver (D-inc) 36%, Terry Branstad (R) 52%

• KS-Gov: Tom Holland (D) 34%, Sam Brownback (R) 57%

• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes (D) 38%, Kelly Ayotte (R) 51%

• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes (D) 40%, Bill Binnie (R) 46%

• SD-Gov: Scott Heidepriem (D) 27%, Dennis Daugaard (R) 59%

• SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 42%, Kristi Noem (R) 51%

SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV (8/2-4, likely voters, 6/14-6/16 in parens; 5/3-5 in brackets):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 46 (38) [34]

Tom Emmer (R): 32 (35) [42]

Tom Horner (I): 9 (12) [9]

Undecided: 13 (15) [15]

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 39 (33) [33]

Tom Emmer (R): 33 (35) [41]

Tom Horner (I): 9 (12) [9]

Undecided: 13 (21) [17]

Matt Entenza (DFL): 38 (33) [31]

Tom Emmer (R): 33 (37) [42]

Tom Horner (I): 12 (12) [10]

Undecided: 17 (18) [16]

(MoE: ±2.7%)

The wheels on the bus go round-and-round, except, of course, if your bus is Tom Emmer’s gubernatorial candidacy. Emmer’s hit a few speedbumps recently, having been on the receiving end of ads from DFL candidate Matt Entenza attacking Emmer’s Palinism and outside groups hitting Emmer on drunk driving laws.

SurveyUSA follows up with a second poll confirming the results of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune’s poll earlier this week, with leads for each of the DFL hopefuls. Emmer’s decline’s been quite stunning, having consistently lost points in each progressive SurveyUSA poll. We’ve had “Joementum” and felt the “Mumpower”, and now, there’s “Emmermentum.” Mark Dayton fares the best, now boasting a 14-point lead, up from an 8-point deficit three months ago – a remarkable 22% swing in that time. Margaret Anderson Kelliher is now up 6, a 14-point swing from being down 8; Entenza’s now 5 up, a 16-point swing from being 11 down.

SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV (8/2-4, likely voters, 6/14-6/16 in parens):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 43 (39)

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 27 (26)

Matt Entenza (DFL): 22 (22)

Undecided: 7 (11)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The corresponding part of the poll examining the DFL primary also mirrors the Star Tribune’s poll. There’s been slight movement since SurveyUSA last examined the race in June, with Mark Dayton still in the driver’s seat with a 16-point lead over MAK and Entenza in third. Dayton looks well on his way along the road to redemption since retiring from the Senate four years ago; with these results and Emmer’s rising unfavorables, there’s good reason for optimism that we’ll take back the Governor’s Mansion in St. Paul.

CO-Sen: In yet another example of the perils of Citizens United, Americans United for Life, a non-profit anti-abortion group, is endorsing GOPer Jane Norton. Worry not, circular firing squad enthusiasts, as other pro-life groups endorsing Norton’s more conservative rival Ken Buck are already hitting back promoting Buck as the pro-lifest option.

FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek, seeking to stanch the bleeding of support to Jeff Greene in the Democratic primary, has released an internal poll showing him leading by the slimmest of margins, 36-35, with 8% going to Maurice Ferre and 20% undecided. Meek has three events planned with the Big Dog in the coming weeks – which isn’t surprising given Meek did endorse Hillary Clinton for President in 2008.

KY-Sen: Braun Research (8/2-4, likely voters):

Jack Conway (D): 31

Rand Paul (R): 41

Undecided: 28

(MoE: ±3.46%)

Braun Research is out with another poll in Kentucky, showing a result consistent with other pollsters of a slight lead for mountain-hater Rand Paul.

NV-Sen: Sharron Angle’s Tour de Crazy continues, as she’s now bandying about criticizing gay adoption (which is legal in Nevada) and advocating for the right of religious officials to endorse political candidates – which flies squarely in the face of Section 501(c)(3) of the tax code.

CO-Gov: Former state legislator Tom Wiens – last seen briefly running for the Senate seat currently held by Michael Bennet – may have set his sights on the Governor’s race as a post-primary option given the utter fail of both GOPers on the ballot, Scott “plagiarist” McInnis and Dan “lien collector” Maes. Wiens claims to have already voted for Scott McInnis, but his follow-up statement that “I voted for Scott McInnis and let’s hope things work out” is hardly a ringing endorsement.

MN-Gov: Target’s CEO, Gregg Steinhafel, is apologizing for the company’s recent $150,000 to the shadowy right-wing group Minnesota Forward, which was last seen airing ads in support of the waitstaff-hating, gay-bashing, Christian conservative-cozy GOP nominee, Tom Emmer. The irony in all of this, of course, is that Target is the successor to the Dayton-Hudson Corporation…to which Democratic gube-hopeful Mark Dayton is an heir.

AL-05: With many of their members at risk in November, the Blue Dog Coalition senses an opportunity to add to their ranks here, endorsing Dem nominee Steve Raby. The Blue Dog Coalition goes way back in this northern Alabama district, as Bud Cramer – who held this seat until 2008 – was a co-founder of the coalition.

ID-01: It’s hard to to tell who’s campaign’s been more amusing, Bill Sali’s or Raul Labrador’s. The normally GOP-leaning Idaho Associated General Contractors – who even endorsed Bill Sali in 2008 – are opting for Dem Walt Minnick, even citing Minnick’s opposition to the stimulus as a point of reservation for the group.

TN-08: The dust’s hardly settled from last night’s bloody GOP three-way…primary, which has fortunately allowed Democratic nominee state Sen. Roy Herron to build up a huge financial advantage. Outside groups are stepping in though, with the conservative-leaning 60 Plus Association dropping $240k in ad buys against Herron in the Memphis, Jackson, and Nashville markets.

VA-05: To the disappointment of cat fud lovers everywhere, the teabaggish Jim McKelvey – despite his earlier reluctance – is endorsing the man who beat him in the primary, “moderate” state Sen. Robert Hurt. Fortunately, there’s still the teabagging independent in this race, Jeff Clark.

WA-08: In a major surprise, the Seattle Times has decided not to endorse incumbent GOPer Dave Reichert, criticizing his constant nay-saying. The Times – which has endorsed Reichert in the past – is instead opting for Microsoft exec Suzan DelBene (D) and Expedia senior manager Tim Dillon (R) in Washington’s unusual top two primary.

Polling: Daily Kos, after having fired their pollster Research 2000, is back in the polling game, to the delight of Swingnuts everywhere. While Daily Kos has yet to decide on a national pollster, they’ve settled on the always reliable Public Policy Polling for state-level horserace polling.

Rasmussen:

CA-Gov: Brown (D) 43%, Whitman (R) 41%

MI-Gov: Bernero (D) 37%, Snyder (R) 49%

NC-Sen: Marshall (D) 40%, Burr (R) 49%

Princeton Survey Research for Minneapolis Star-Tribune (7/26-29, registered voters, no trendlines):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 40

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 30

Matt Entenza (DFL): 17

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±7.8%)

Mark Dayton (DFL): 40

Tom Emmer (R): 30

Tom Horner (I): 13

Undecided: 17

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 38

Tom Emmer (R): 29

Tom Horner (I): 13

Undecided: 18

Matt Entenza (DFL): 36

Tom Emmer (R): 31

Tom Horner (I): 15

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Things haven’t been going so well for Tom Emmer lately, who at one point immediately after the GOP convention had a unity-bounce lead in the polls (or at least in the Rasmussen/SurveyUSA likely voter universe). In the last few weeks, he’s released a weak fundraising report, been the target of big advertising blitzes from both Matt Entenza and a Dem 527, and won’t be able to ever eat in a restaurant in Minnesota again, as his waitstaff is likely to be serving him loogie sandwiches for the foreseeable future. On top of all that comes the new Star-Tribune poll, which may be the most bullish on DFL chances of any poll yet: it gives all three DFL candidates, even Entenza, a decent lead over Emmer.

They also look at the DFL primary, although the 7.8% MoE is pretty absurd. At any rate, the results mirror what other polls of the primary have found: Mark Dayton with a lead of 10 or so over Margaret Anderson Kelliher. The DFL-endorsed Kelliher also got the Star-Tribune’s endorsement over the weekend. Whether those endorsements help her to overcome Dayton and Entenza’s money, well, we’ll have to wait until Aug. 10 to find out.

• NH-Sen, NH-Gov (pdf): As PPP’s Tom Jensen hinted yesterday, Kelly Ayotte may have lost some ground in the general election, but isn’t suffering in the GOP primary. Ayotte has a 53/23 favorable among GOPers, and they also say that by a 38/28 margin, a Sarah Palin endorsement makes it more likely that they’d vote for the endorsee. Ayotte is polling at 47%, with Bill Binnie at 14, Ovide Lamontagne at 8, Jim Bender at 6, and a handful of Some Dudes in low single-digits. (Lamontagne’s personal unpopularity seems to be keeping him from catching fire among the right wing; he’s at 23/31.) They also looked at the gubernatorial primary, where establishment frontrunner John Stephen hasn’t quite sealed the deal against teabagging businessman Jack Kimball and social conservative activist Karen Testerman. Stephen leads Kimball and Testerman 26-15-5.

• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: Quinnipiac offers up polls of the major races in New York state today, and, try as they may, they just can’t find anything interesting going on here, any more so than any other pollster. The main point of interest may be the GOP primaries; they find Rick Lazio leading Carl Paladino 39-23 in the gubernatorial primary, and Bruce Blakeman leading David Malpass 19-12 in the Senate primary (although Joe DioGuardi, who has submitted his petitions, really should be polled in that race too). In the general, they find Kirsten Gillibrand beating Blakeman 48-27 and Malpass 49-24. Andrew Cuomo defeats Lazio 56-26 and Paladino 55-25.

• WA-Sen: Having been on the receiving end of one of Fred Davis’s abstract-expressionist attack ads, Patty Murray’s out with her own first second TV spot of the election cycle, one that’s relentlessly job-o-centric and focuses on her close links to the region’s largest employer: Boeing. It’s a panorama of Boeing workers thanking her for saving their jobs.

• FL-Gov: Bill McCollum’s trailing in the polls of the GOP primary, but he got a boost from the Florida Chamber of Commerce, which is endorsing him. The Chamber also gave the cash-starved McCollum a $500K transfusion, although it went to McCollum-supporting 527 Florida First Initiative rather than directly to McCollum.

• GA-Gov: Nathan Deal got two presents, one good, one very bad. He got the endorsement for the runoff from fellow House member Jack Kingston, who had previously endorsed fellow Savannah resident Eric Johnson in the GOP primary. However, he also got news that a federal grand jury has issued subpoenas of Georgia’s Revenue Commissioner, in its investigation of whether Deal personally intervened with him to protect a state auto inspection program that was particularly beneficial to the Deal family’s auto salvage business. At least Deal isn’t lagging on the fundraising front; both he and rival Karen Handel have raised about $500K each in the week since the primary.

• MI-Gov: Rumors keep on resurfacing regarding Republican AG Mike Cox’s presence at an out-of-control mayoral mansion party hosted by now-disgraced former Detroit mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, and they’re back in the news again, inconveniently timed for him with the primary next week. An eyewitness has just signed an affidavit placing the religious-right Cox at the stripper-laden party. Meanwhile, Rick Snyder, who’s actively trying to court Dems and indies to cross over to the GOP primary to vote for him, has rolled out an endorsement from a highly respected but long-ago GOP governor: William Milliken.

• MN-Gov: Alliance for a Better Minnesota is out with a new TV ad that’s hitting Republican nominee Tom Emmer on one of his weakest spots (of which it turns out he has many). It criticizes him for voting to weaken drunk driving laws, and oh, just happening to point out that Emmer himself has twice been convicted of drunk driving. (The Alliance name is a little oblique, probably intentionally so, but they’re a labor-backed 501(c)(4).)

• CO-04: Could Scott McInnis’s implosion and Tom Tancredo’s gubernatorial run actually help Democratic fortunes downballot, especially in the hotly-contested 4th? That’s what Politico is wondering, with a piece looking at how reduced GOP turnout and/or increased interest in Constitution Party candidate Doug Aden might ultimately benefit Democratic freshman Rep. Betsy Markey.

• NH-02: If there’s one competitive Democratic primary left where there’s a pretty clear ideological contrast, it’s in the 2nd. While Ann McLane Kuster is a netroots fave, Katrina Swett is on record as having supported the Bush-era tax cuts in 2002 (the decision of whether or not to extend said cuts is about to become an issue in Congress). Swett says she’s being misrepresented, to the extent that only supported the middle-class parts of the tax cuts, although she didn’t clarify whether or not she would have voted for the whole shebang.

• PA-06: Buried in a story about how Rep. Jim Gerlach has actually been giving money to the NRCC (to the tune of $44K just now, for a total of $100K all cycle) is news of an internal poll from a few weeks ago, which suggests he’s not in the sort of imminent danger that would require him to horde cash. He’s pointing to a Wilson Research poll from mid-July that gives him a 54-29 lead over Dem nominee Manan Trivedi.

• MI-Legislature: One state where we aren’t hurting for details on the state of the state legislatures, thanks to Michigan Liberal’s pbratt, is Michigan. He’s out with pre-primary filing fundraising databases for both the Senate (Republican-controlled, but one of our best offensive opportunities) and the House (reliably Democratic-controlled).

• Meta: I’ve always wondered, if this is such an anti-incumbent year, where the losing incumbents actually are. The Fix’s Aaron Blake is taking notice of the same thing, as we’re on track to have not really any more of an anti-incumbent year than 2008. With really only one more House member who seems on track to lose a primary (Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick), that puts us on track for 4 primary losses for both parties in the House… exactly the same number as 2008. Winning a primary, of course, takes loads of money, and the thing that sets the successful challengers (Mike Oliverio or Mo Brooks, or Joe Sestak at the Senate level) apart from the vast array of the rabble attacking from both left and right is $$. It is worth observing, though, that the average incumbent winning percentage seems to be down this year from last cycle, with many incumbents winning ugly, in the 60-70% range. We’d need to investigate how much that average percentage has changed since 2008, though, before declaring a trend to be underway.

• Rasmussen:

• AL-Gov: Ron Sparks (D) 35%, Robert Bentley (R) 55%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 43%, Mark Kirk (R) 41%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 45%, Sharron Angle (R) 43%

• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber (D) 44%, Chris Dudley (R) 47%

If you’d told me back in, say, January, that in late July Rasmussen would be finding Harry Reid winning and John Kitzhaber losing, I wouldn’t have even laughed at you, I would have just picked up the phone and called for assistance from men in white suits with big butterfly nets.

CT-Sen: I thought it was pretty weird that alleged non-candidate Rob Simmons was going to participate in a GOP debate last night. Well, he un-weirded things (I guess) by declaring at this debate that he is “running for the United States Senate.” We’ll see if it sticks. The primary, by the way, is August 10th.

KS-Sen: Not something you see every day: Rep. Jerry Moran’s former campaign manager, who claims he was pushed out in April, has endorsed rival Rep. Todd Tiahrt. Paul Moore said he thinks Moran, who has led in every single public poll, is not “instinctively conservative.”

NC-Sen: A new Civitas poll has Richard Burr leading Elaine Marshall 44-37. It’s been a really long time since Civitas looked at this race; in December of last year, they found Burr up 40-32.

WA-Sen: Obama alert! The POTUS will headline a fundraiser for Sen. Patty Murray on August 17th in Seattle.

FL-Gov: McLaughlin & Associates supposedly has yet another poll out, but not for their client Bill McCollum. Apparently, they did double duty for the Florida Medical Association, and – surprise – found Rick Scott leading McCollum 37-33. This seems like a pretty colossal waste of money, since McCollum’s internal – released just the other day – had him down 37-31.

Meanwhile, McCollum had to deal with a small brush fire: former Florida House Speaker Alan Bense held a private meeting with Rick Scott over the weekend. The problem is that Bense is supposed to be a McCollum supporter – something he re-iterated after his soiree, saying he only got together with Scott to be polite. Bense is also the chairman-elect of the Florida Chamber of Commerce, and his group is expected to get behind Billy Mac. And in case anyone still cares what unlovable loser Gary Bauer thinks, he endorsed McCollum.

KS-Gov: Dem state Sen. Tom Holland raised $283K from Jan. 1 to July 22nd and has $103K on hand. His Republican opponent, Sen. Sam Brownback, took in $519K and has $1.2 million in the bank. Note, though, that Holland’s fundraising mostly took place after the legislative session ended in June (there are strict regulations on fundraising while the lege is in operation), while Brownback was free to raise from all sources throughout the reporting period. Brownback’s been spending his time well, mind you: He just introduced legislation which would ban the creation of “part-human, part-animal creatures.” Sadly, this would mean no manticores, minotaurs, or mermaids. And I was really looking forward to embracing our brave new Greek mythology future.

MN-Gov: Glad to see that Citizens United is proving to be a two-edged sword. Target has donated $150,000 to a right-wing group called MN Forward, which is running TV ads on behalf of extremist Republican nominee Tom Emmer. Gay groups in particular are incensed, since Target had been known as a gay-friendly employer, even going so far as to support the Twin Cities Gay Pride Festival. And speaking for myself, Target can get fucked – as can Best Buy and any other corporation which uses corporate money to help elect Republicans. Not shopping at either location anymore, that’s for sure.

NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo is launching his first TV ad of the cycle, a spot about property taxes. Of course, NWOTSOTB, or whether it’s cable or broadcast, or even where it’s airing. Sigh.

OH-Gov: Obama alert 2! The day after the POTUS appears in WA (see bullet above), he’ll be doing a fundraiser for Ted Strickland in Columbus.

OR-Gov: We haven’t done writeups of our most recent batch of race ratings yet, but Carla Axtman of Blue Oregon has a nice writeup of an interview she did with Crisitunity at Netroots Nation, where he explains our decision to move OR-Gov from Likely D to Tossup.

RI-Gov: Linc Chafee is doing his best to out-do Martha Coakley when it comes to alienating Red Sox Nation (a broad constituency throughout New England). While criticizing state loan guarantees to a video game company owned by Schilling, he also decided to question whether Schilling’s famous “bloody sock” game was legit. Already Chafee’s tried to walk back the remark – but there are no do-overs in baseball. Or politics.

GA-02: Dem Rep. Sanford Bishop, in a competitive race with Republican Mike Keown (who oh-so-narrowly outraised the incumbent last quarter), formally kicked off his campaign yesterday with a newly-famous Georgian at his side: Shirley Sherrod, with whom you are most certainly familiar by now. Even though this district is almost 48% black, it’s also extremely competitive politically, going 54% for Obama and 50% for Kerry.

KS-01: SurveyUSA has one final look at the open-seat GOP primary in KS-01, finding a three-way tie between state Sen. Jim Barnett, realtor Tracey Mann, and state Sen. Tim Huelskamp. All pull 24%. Last time, it was 23-20-18.

MA-09: Bubba alert! Bill Clinton is doing a fundraiser and rally this Thursday for conservadem and anti-healthcare reform asshole Stephen Lynch. Lynch faces a primary from Mac D’Alessandro and has a monster cash advantage ($1.3 million to just $72K), so this surely seems like overkill to me – but of course, the Big Dog loves to pay back favors, and Lynch was (you guessed it) a Hillary supporter in 2008.

NY-13: Rep. Mike McMahon, seeking to avoid a primary on the Independence Party line, is challenging the petitions of third-party irritant John Tabacco. Tabacco needs only 497 valid signatures, but New York has absurdly stringent rules which make it very easy to knock “bad” sigs out. Therefore, the common rule of thumb is that you need to submit at least twice as many petitions as the law requires, and Tabacco only provided 678. Therefore, I’m going to guess that McMahon – who is highly motivated here – will succeed in his challenges. Tabacco has some more problems to worry about, though – after giving a loan to the wife of the chair of the state Independence Party last year, he suddenly got their ballot line in a city council race (funnily enough, for the seat vacated by McMahon).

NY-15: House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer is dipping a toe into new waters, suggesting that resignation is an option for Charlie Rangel. So is fighting the charges, Hoyer says, but a ringing endorsement of the embattled former Ways and Means chair this is not. Meanwhile, Walt Minnick isn’t playing footsie, becoming the second Dem (after OH-13’s Betty Sutton) to call on Rangel to quit the House.

Rangel is still in talks with the ethics committee to try to reach some sort of plea bargain, but it seems that he’s unwilling to cop to a sufficiently broad array of violations to satisfy the committee members. If Rangel can’t come to terms, he’d face a “public hearing” (essentially a trial). As the New York Times points out, the last time this happened was in 2002, when Jim Traficant was expelled from the House.

PA-07: Teabagger Jim Schneller, hoping to appear on the ballot as an independent, says he’s gathered 5,200 signatures so far – a thousand more than the 4,200 he needs to submit by August 2nd. It remains to be seen if Republican Pat Meehan will try to challenge Schneller’s bid.

TN-03: Politico has a piece documenting the wingnut-on-wingnut violence stemming from the fight to replace outgoing Rep. Zach Wamp in this dark-red seat. The battle is between attorney Chuck Fleischmann and former state GOP chair Robin Smith.

Fundraising: A rare day: two Steny Hoyer mentions in one digest. The House Majority Leader is parachuting into a whole host of districts, doing events for Dems such as Mark Critz, Chris Carney, Tim Bishop, Denny Heck, and the undeserving Larry Kissell. Hoyer, like Nancy Pelosi, got where he is because lots and lots of people owe him – and will continue to owe him. Let this be a lesson to aspiring progressive leaders in Congress.