Tag: LA-Sen

[First, a cheap plug for

Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

So, newly-Republican state Treasurer John N. Kennedy has taken the first steps toward a 2008 Senate challenge to Senator Mary Landrieu, as he announced yesterday by e-mail and via a message on his circa 1997 Geocities website.

To kick off his campaign, I’d suggest the media ask two questions of Treasurer Kennedy:

First, Kennedy has demonstrated incredibly mercurial career goals, always seeming willing to better-deal his constituents for the next gig down the line.  As Landrieu adviser Norma Jane Sabiston reminds us: “John Kennedy, the first candidate in the Republican primary field, ran ads just four weeks ago saying ‘the job’s not done’ and asking for Louisianians’ support to ‘continue to be your state treasurer.'”  Why should Louisiana voters offer him a six-year job when he never seems happy to complete his four-year jobs?

Second, in response to his willingness to offer Halliburton no-bid contracts in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, he said: “Well, in an emergency situation, you do what you have to do to get the job done.” Similar to allowing Halliburton’s no-bid contracts as “doing what you have to do to get the job done,” would Kennedy also support extreme and illegal measures such as waterboarding and other torture, warrantless wiretapping, and suspending habeas corpus “to get the job done” against terrorism?

Political Wire reports that Louisiana Treasurer (and former Democrat) John Kennedy intends to challenge Sen. Mary Landrieu next year. Kennedy has apparently already begun raising campaign cash and has been shopping around the results of a Zogby poll showing him leading 45% to 38%.

To see the results of the poll, you can visit Kennedy's excellent campaign website, hosted by Geocities. I suppose he needs to raise all that money to pay for real hosting.

September was an awful month for the GOP: John Warner and Hagel retired, Shaheen and Mark Warner jumped in for Democrats… October started much the same way, as New Mexico’s Pete Domenici announced he would not run for re-election, opening up yet another very vulnerable seat. But Democrats then ran into a bad patch of their own that culminated in the disastrous news that Bob Kerrey would not run in Nebraska. That by itself made a race that was leaning towards Democrats become a likely hold for Republicans. Meanwhile, the shuffle in New Mexico has still not been resolved, with Democrats scrambling to find a strong candidate.

That Nebraska and New Mexico have dominated Senate news in the past month is obvious in these new rankings: New Mexico rose from the 11th to 4th, while Nebraska collapsed from 4th to 13th (Reminder: Races are organized in order of vulnerability, so that the first ranked race is the most likely to turn-over). But there was some other movement: The departure of Tom Davis from the Virginia Senate race solidified the contest’s number one ranking, while Democrats are significantly more upbeat this month about their chances in Kentucky and even in North Carolina. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY) should be worried at the Democratic determination to avenge Tom Dashle’s 2004 loss and target him for defeat.

The Senate situation is still very fluid with more retirement and recruitment rumors floating around, so that a lot of things could still change in the coming months. But an increasing number of races are settling down, so that we are starting to get a clearer idea of which states are likely to be hotly contested.

Outlook: Democratic pick-up 4-7 Senate seats.

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 5 seats, for a 56-41 majority.

Full rankings are available here, on Campaign Diaries. The lean take-over and toss-up seats are listed here.

Likely Takeover (1 Republican seat, 0 Democratic seats)

1. Virginia (Open seat; Previous Ranking: 1)

A month after Virginia rose to the top of these rankings, it appears to have permanently secured its place as the most vulnerable seat of the 2008 cycle. The Republicans shot themselves in the foot when their Central Committee voted to choose the party’s nominee at a party convention rather than in a primary. As a result, Rep. Tom Davis, who had been preparing to run for Senate for years, decided to stay out of the race. His moderate profile would have made a win in a party convention very difficult considering the more conservative candidacy of former Governor Jim Gilmore. And if the Republicans had one hope to make this race competitive next year, it was that Davis would be able to pick-up votes in his base of Northern Virginia, thus cutting the margins in the bluest region of the state. Polls continue to show Warner has a strong edge against Gilmore, and that cannot be accounted by name recognition as both men are well-known statewide.

Lean Takeover (2 Republican Seats, 0 Democratic Seats)

2. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu; Previous ranking: 2)

Former Governor Shaheen continues to be the worst nightmare for Senator John Sununu. Polls this past month confirmed that Shaheen was looking strong and was favored against the man who beat her five years ago. Sununu is certainly not out of it though; he mounted a very strong campaign in 2002, defeating the incumbent senator in the primary and the incumbent governor in the general election. Republicans will at least try to defend the seat, and they could definitely narrow the margin. But New Hampshire’s Democratic turn in 2006 was so strong that the GOP is unlikely to easily overcome it. They might choose to focus their attention to reclaiming at least one of the House seats.

3. Colorado (Open; Previous ranking: 3)

Colorado is one of the quietest top-tier races, mostly of how early Senator Allard announced his retirement. Both parties settled on a candidate early, and primaries will not be particularly contested. Democrats are running Rep. Udall, and Republicans are running former Rep. Shaffer. In the past month, the second poll of the race was released and showed a tie between the two candidates — though it had a very high undecided rate. And middle-of-the-road voters are precisely those that broke Democratic in 2004 and 2006. Democrats picked up a Senator’s seat, the governorship and two House seats in two cycles, and there is no reason to think that Colorado independents are moving back in the Republican column. Udall is favored to pull away ride this blue trend across the finish line, though the race could certainly remain tight to the end.

Toss-up (4 R, 1 D)

4. New Mexico (Incumbent: Pete Domenici; Last Ranking: 11)

New Mexico has been the big story of October. Pete Domenici announced a surprise retirement at the beginning of the month, setting off much movement among state officials. New Mexico is a swing state in most elections, and politicians from both parties see this as a major opening. On the Republican side, the two major candidates are Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce, two of the three House representatives from New Mexico. Wilson is supposed to be more moderate than Pearce, which has enabled her to survive cycle after cycle in her Democratic-leaning district (she won by 800 votes in 2006). Wilson is lining up more institutional support, but polls have shown Pearce is running stronger in the general election. The main factor against Wilson is her involvement in the attorney firing scandal — that could hurt her in the primary, but especially in the general election.

On the Democratic side, the big question is whether Rep. Tom Udall will run after all. He ruled it out very quickly weeks ago, but he has been reconsidering in recent days, likely due to intense lobbying from the DSCC. All indications are that he will indeed jump in. If he does, he will start off slightly favored in the general election against either Wilson or Pearce. He has been elected statewide before (he was a two-term Attorney General), and he is a very popular figure. But he would first have to overcome a primary. Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, very much disliked by progressives, is also running. Chavez would stay very competitive in the general election, though he would certainly not start off favored.

5. Louisiana (Incumbent: Mary Landrieu; Last Ranking: 6)

Republicans are feeling better about this race after Bobby Jindal’s blowout victory in the governor’s race last month. Granted, Jindal was not facing any significant opposition from Democrats, but his first-round triumph with 54% was nonetheless impressive. Louisiana was trending Republican even before Katrina hit, but Republicans are quite confident that Landrieu has lost much of her base because of hurricane migrations and that newly-turned-Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy will end up the victor.

However, the Republican case should not be overstated. Mitch Landrieu, Senator Landrieu’s brother, overwhelmingly won his re-election race as Lieutenant Governor the same day as Jindal’s victory. Granted, he was not facing much opposition either, but Democrats are not out in the state, and the Landrieu family name still carries some weight in the state.

6. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman; Last Ranking: 5)

Just like in Colorado, the field has been set long ago in Minnesotta, which means that the race has been mostly quiet. Coleman and his challengers Al Franken and Mike Ciresi are all busy raising money — lots of it. Coleman also made news recently by endorsing Giuliani in the presidential primary, not that that will have a major impact on his senatorial race. Some Democrats still worry that Franken will not be very strong in the general election, though much stranger things have happened in American politics and many reports have emphasized how well Franken has been able to transition from comedian to politician. It is strange, however, that the DSCC has not pressured more politically experienced Democrats who could potentially be stronger into running.

7. Oregon (Incumbent: Gordon Smith; Last Ranking: 8)

Democrats are confident that Gordon Smith is vulnerable, though they did not convince their top-tier candidates to jump in the race. Ducking it out in the primary are House Speaker Jeff Merkley and Steve Novick, with the former favored by the establishment. Democrats they have to weaken Smith early on, especially considering the large amounts of money the incumbent has been raising. Smith’s main vulnerability is the national anti-GOP environment, and Dems are trying to challenge the image of Smith as a moderate politician. Merkley recently blasted Smith for voting to confirm federal Court of Appeals nominee Leslie Southwick whose nomination was very controversial, especially on the basis of Soultwick’s racial insensitivity.

TIME Magazine dips its toes into the 2008 Senate race scene in its list of the “top ten Senate races to watch“. (H/T: S2G)  Here’s an excerpt from their Louisiana page, talking up the profile of state Treasurer and recently-converted Republican John N. Kennedy:

Kennedy very nearly beat Republican David Vitter for his Senate seat in 2004; in a year that favored Republicans (Bush won Louisiana with 57 % of the vote) Vitter just barely squeaked in with 51%.

Funny.  That’s not how I remember the 2004 Senate race in Louisiana going down:

David Vitter (R): 51%
Chris John (D): 29%
John Kennedy (D): 15%
MoE: 0.0%

Yeah, Kennedy was really breathing down Vitter’s neck there.

That’s not the only mistake in the piece, of course.  On the Colorado page, TIME calls Rep. Mark Udall (D) “the son of the legendary Colorado Congressman Mo Udall”.  Mo, of course, represented Arizona in the House.

I feel genuinely sorry for anyone still stuck relying on the dead tree media for their horse race coverage.

Republicans in Louisiana are passing the bottle around tonight–they just snagged a fresh, high profile turncoat from the Democratic ranks.  John Kennedy, the State Treasurer of Louisiana since his election in 1999, has bolted to the GOP after heavy recruitment by the likes of Karl Rove and David Vitter:

State Treasurer John Kennedy has switched political parties and will seek re-election to a third term this fall as a Republican, he announced Monday.

Kennedy has been publicly mulling the switch for months, and he has clashed repeatedly with Gov. Kathleen Blanco and the Democratic leaders in the House and Senate over spending and other issues.

In an email message to supporters, Kennedy cited “certain fixed, bedrock principles” that he believes are more in line with the Republican Party than the Democrats, and said GOP officials have been more responsive to his proposals in recent years.

What are those “bedrock principles”?  Kos has the straight dirt from Kennedy’s press release:

I also believe in the power of ideas. Every advancement in art, science, technology, business, cooking and medicine has occurred only after someone challenged the rules and tried another way. My career in public service demonstrates my belief in the power of looking for a better way. For the past several years, it has increasingly been the case that those public servants who have embraced my ideas and my philosophy of trying new approaches are primarily Republicans. I am grateful for their support and their willingness to try something different. (Emphasis added)

Cooking?!  I had no idea that conservative Republicans were responsible for so many culinary breakthroughs.  I hope Kennedy succeeds in his quest to bring Cajun food to a whole new level.

Kennedy, as you may recall, ran as a Democrat in the 2004 Senate race to succeed retiring Sen. John Breaux, scoring 15% of the vote.  Party loyalty is not exactly a strong suit in a state that produced notable party-switchers such as Rodney Alexander, Billy Tauzin, Walter Boasso, and Ray Nagin, and with the state’s trending-red demographic catastrophe, I suspect that charges of opportunism will be fairly muted.  By crossing the aisle now, Kennedy is setting himself up to run against Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu next year, to the immense delight of Rove and Vitter.  Landrieu has decent approvals, but this will be the GOP’s #1 target in 2008.  Expect a bloodbath.

Rep. Richard Baker, a Republican representing the Baton Rouge-based 6th District of Louisiana, has decided not to challenge Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu next year.  From PoliticsLA: 

Baker says he has been taking meetings with party leaders to discuss the idea, and has left the possibility open in press interviews. But now he reveals that he is happy in the House, where a Democratic majority has managed to put only small dent in his seniority – he originally took the lead on Louisiana's housing woes in the wake of Katrina and brokered a deal on a water-resources bill last month that had been stalled in Congress for seven years. “The Republicans, state and federal, see the Landrieu race as a competitive one and, at the moment, I'm not so sure there's a candidate out there,” Baker says. “But I can tell you it is nothing I intend to take on.

Not too surprising, given Baker's sluggish fundraising this year.  The full court press by national Republicans returns to “Democratic” State Treasurer John Kennedy, who, as you may recall, ran to succeed retiring Sen. John Breaux in 2004 and earned only 15% of the vote.  I hope he doesn't run, because you could just imagine all those gleeful Republican talking heads squealing in delight about how they managed to get someone named “John Kennedy” to abandon the Democratic Party.

UPDATE: John Kennedy also announced today that he will seek re-election for his State Treasurer post this fall.  However, I do not see how such a move could prevent him from starting up a Senate campaign after November, and I have not seen any statements ruling that possibility out as of yet.

(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

A little over two months ago, I took a look at the state of NRSC recruiting in the one open seat (Colorado) and the twelve states with Democratic incumbents, concluding, up to that point in time, that the NRSC was 0-for-13 in recruiting so far.  Keep in mind that we’re approaching the dog days of summer, not a heavy recruitment period.  (Note that during June-August of 2005, only five Senate candidates announced, all five of whom were Republican losers.)  So where does the state of NRSC recruitment stand, and what has changed in the last two months?

(Much more below the fold.)

Colorado: New CO-GOP chief Dick Wadhams muscled the more moderate Scott McInnis out to make room for his good pal conservative “Backwards” Bob Schaffer, who will, barring any unforeseen events, be the Republican nominee for Senate.  Schaffer then proceeded to have a stammering start to his campaign, embarrassing himself right from the start, before hiring a bunch of electoral losers to staff his campaign.  Never mind that Democratic Congressman Mark Udall has a significant advantage in fundraising and a big head start in reaching out to voters.  I suppose we could credit the GOP with an accomplishment for finding a living, breathing human being who has held office before and ostensibly has a base of support to run.  But, with Colorado’s trending blue over the last few years, muscling out the more moderate choice for the more conservative one might not have been the best play.

Arkansas: Since Republican former Governor and current Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee, arguably the only Republican to give Senator Mark Pryor a real challenge, ruled out a Senate bid, it also came out that Pryor saw better Q1 fundraising for his Senate re-election than Huckabee saw for his Presidential bid.  So no Arkansas Republicans seem to be stepping up to the plate at present.  Meanwhile, the new Chair of the AR-GOP, who should be out looking for challengers to Pryor, is instead getting himself in trouble with comments like “I think all we need is some attacks on American soil.”  In a nutshell, as it stands now in Arkansas, the Green Party is doing better than the Republican Party when it comes to Senate recruitment.

Delaware: Nothing new then; nothing new now.  Still zip from the DE-GOP.

Illinois: The NRSC met with wealthy businessman Steve Greenberg.  He however turned down their entreaties and is considering a House bid, leaving political unknown Steve Sauerberg as the sole announced Republican candidate.  Having lost one potential self-funder in Greenberg, expect the GOP to seek out another potential self-funder before writing off the seat and settling for token opposition.

Iowa: While Senator Harkin had a strong Q1, GOP Rep. Tom Latham barely raised a solid amount by House standards, much less Senate standards; and GOP Rep. Steve King raised next to nothing, with a scant amount for cash-on-hand.  It’s getting safer to assume that Harkin won’t have a strong opponent.  The Iowa Republican Senate primary could wind up being between businessman Steve Rathje, businessman Troy Cook, and part-time tae kwon do instructor Bob McDowell.  Um, yeah.

Louisiana: Here’s the summary that I penned for Daily Kingfish a little less than a month ago:

Bobby Jindal is running for Governor.  GOP Congressmen Charles Boustany and Jim McCrery have both taken their names out of the running.  GOP Congressman Richard Baker has a whopping $66,000 cash-on-hand.  And Jay Dardenne, who is already polling significantly behind the “vulnerable” [Senator Mary] Landrieu, is embarrassing himself.  In fact, the only Republicans who have demonstrated any interest are Woody Jenkins and Suzanne Haik Terrell, the two Republicans Landrieu has already defeated.

Since this summary, the only development has been Karl Rove trying to get the Democratic state Treasurer to switch Parties to run against Landrieu.  I suppose that even Rove doubts there are any strong Republican challengers.  The LA-GOP and NRSC really don’t have much to show for all of Landrieu’s supposed vulnerability.

Massachusetts: A token opponent has stepped forward:

Jeff Beatty, who took less than 30% of the vote in a 2006 Congressional race and raised less than $50,000.  The Congressional district Beatty ran in was the most favorable to Bush and least favorable to Kerry in 2004 of any of Massachusetts’ ten Congressional districts; so, if Beatty couldn’t crack 30% or manage any significant fundraising in that district, it’s unlikely that he’d be able to accomplish anything further statewide.

It’s not like the MA-GOP doesn’t have access to some known quantities: Paul Cellucci, Jane Swift, Kerry Healey, Andrew Card, Curt Schilling.  But they’ll settle, for now, for Jeff Beatty.

Michigan: To plagiarize from the Delaware entry above: “Nothing new then; nothing new now.”

Montana: Only two Republicans have been suggested as having the capability to give popular Senator Max Baucus a challenge: former Governor Mark Racicot, who has been silent; and, GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg, who CQPolitics characterized as “resisting GOP efforts to draft him into the race.”  The CQPolitics article also notes that former Montana House Republican leader Michael Lange was considered a possibility until his obscene tirade against Governor Brian Schweitzer.  For now, it’s all quiet on the Western front.

New Jersey: With known quantities like Christie Todd Whitman, Chris Christie, and members of the Kean family sitting out, it looks like there is an NJ-GOP Senate primary brewing between conservative assemblyman Michael Doherty and less-conservative real estate developer Anne Evans Estabrook.  Estabrook has the support of GOP Rep. Mike Ferguson, Kean family ties, and sizable personal wealth.  Doherty also has the support of several notable New Jersey Republicans, as well as the apparent backing of NJ’s conservative mouthpieces.  While Senator Frank Lautenberg should handily dispatch either, Estabrook’s personal wealth and more moderate positions (at least compared with Doherty) would likely make her the less easily-beatable opponent.

Rhode Island: To plagiarize from the Michigan and Delaware entries above: “Nothing new then; nothing new now.”

South Dakota: With Senator Tim Johnson’s recovery moving along steadily, South Dakota Republicans are beginning to step up to the plate.  Two have indicated interest in a run: state representative Joel Dykstra and businessman Sam Kephart.  With Tim Johnson’s existing popularity coupled with sympathy from his impressive recovery, it is doubtful that either of these challengers would be formidable, while far-right conservative Gov. Mike Rounds remains mum on possible Senate plans.

West Virginia: About a month ago, I summed up the situation in West Virginia:

With Shelley Moore Capito taking a pass on a Senate bid, Republicans are now looking to GOP Secretary of State Betty Ireland and multiple-time-loser John Raese to take on popular Democratic Senator Jay Rockefeller.  In 2004, Ireland squeaked to a 52-48 victory; and, in 2006, Raese lost to Senator Robert Byrd by a 64-34 thrashing.  Not exactly rainmakers on the WV-GOP bench.

Nothing has changed since that point.

So, among the thirteen seats discussed here, ten states (Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Rhode Island, and West Virginia) currently offer no Republican opposition or only token opposition.  Two states (New Jersey and South Dakota) see Republican opposition in the more-than-token but less-than-strong range.  And one state (open seat Colorado) sees a Republican contender, though the race still favors the Democrat and is the likeliest of seats up for election in 2008 to switch control (from GOP to Democrat).  With the dog days of summer ahead, the NRSC just doesn’t seem too concerned with candidate recruitment.

(I’m working on what seems to be shaping up to become an all-nighter of a research paper, so please use this thread to discuss the latest goings-on in Louisiana. I’m heartened to hear that Breaux’s legal team believes that “citizenship” isn’t much of an obstacle–and indeed, “citizen” as a legal term is a much broader requirement than “resident”. – promoted by James L.)

1. John Breaux Is A Citizen

Highlight:

Breaux said there’s no question that he meets the state Constitution’s requirement of being a “citizen” of Louisiana for the past five years, even though he changed his voter registration to Maryland in 2005.

“I don’t just own two lots in Crowley. It is my family home. When my mama died, I inherited half of it. My dad lives there. We pay taxes on it. My wife, Lois, owns property in Louisiana,” Breaux said. “I never revoked my citizenship in Louisiana.”

Lawyers have looked at the constitutional requirement and determined he meets the citizenship requirement, Breaux said.

Breaux will announce in the “very near future,” or after he has a discussion with Blanco.  Foster Campell will still run, and Jindal’s supporters have hijacked the comments thread attached to the article.  But this is my favorite comment:

But his citizenship is not the issue, he said.

“The issues are health care, education and rebuilding. That’s what it is all about,” Breaux said.

2. Mary Landrieu Is Above 50%

Highlight:

GOP Sets Sights on Landrieu

The National Republican Senatorial Committee released a poll yesterday aimed at demonstrating the vulnerability of Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) in her 2008 reelection bid.

Fifty-one percent of the sample said they would vote to reelect Landrieu and 42 percent said they would consider someone new — a sign, according to pollster Glen Bolger, that Landrieu is a “vulnerable Democratic incumbent.”

Although Bolger writes that “when voters are given a choice between Landrieu and a Republican they know, they invariably choose the Republican,” the poll memo includes data for only one statewide head-to-head matchup: Rep. Bobby Jindal (R-La.), who is running for governor this year, led Landrieu by 55 percent to 39 percent. No matchup between Landrieu and Rep. Richard H. Baker (La.) — the Republicans’ preferred candidate — is mentioned in the memo.

Landrieu won her seat in 1996 by 5,788 votes and was reelected in 2002 with 52 percent of the vote.

One problem to consider is the NRSC’s decision to poll Landrieu against Jindal, especially as Breaux is still considering a gubernatorial bid.  Another is the inherent bias of this Republican poll: Is Landrieu more popular than the results claim?  And would Jindal really have a chance if Breaux defeats him in 2007?  And lastly, is Landrieu as vulnerable as the RSCC claims when over 50% of Louisianans want her reelected?

Race Tracker: LA-Sen

Southern Media and Opinion Research has the first poll of the year for the Democrats’ biggest defensive target up in 2008, the Louisiana Senate seat held by Mary Landrieu.  In a hypothetical matchup between Sen. Landrieu and recently-elected Republican Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, they come up with this snapshot (Jan. 12-14, likely voters):

Mary Landrieu (D-Inc.): 53
Jay Dardenne (R): 38
MoE: ±4%

The poll also notes that Dardenne (who, at this point, is only one of several possible challengers to Landrieu) has a name-recognition of two-thirds in the state.  It’s nice to see Landrieu in the lead, but this it’s still way too early to get a feel for this race.  As the polling firm notes, on paper, Dardenne seems to be a fairly good challenger–already enjoying good statewide name recognition (but still with some room to grow), and 15 points is by no means an insurmountable gap at this stage in the game.  Still, in light of all of the disastrous polls showing Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D) trailing Rep. Bobby Jindal (R) in the 2007 Governor’s race by as much as 24 points, it’s nice to know that the state may not ready for a complete Democratic purge just yet.  Republicans will still wisely throw everything that they have at this one, though.

(Hat-tip to rob.)

Race Tracker:  LA-Sen

Since Republican Cong. Charles Boustany has now ruled out a race against incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana it appears that she may be in better shape for another term than was originally thought. A January poll published today in the Advocate shows that she leads Republican challenger Jay Dardenne by a wide margin. The Louisiana race has been of much concern to Democratic insiders because of the loss of hundreds of thousands of voters who relocated to other states after Hurricane Katrina.

http://bluesunbelt.c…