Tag: Oregon

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We’re going to try something new here at Swing State Project: a list of competitive state legislature races for 2008. However, we aren’t breaking them down into the tossup/lean/likely framework that you’re familiar with. Unlike Senate and House races, where there is abundant polling and fundraising information to help us make informed decisions, state legislatures are jigsaws made up of hundreds of different races, most of which we know precious little about. Therefore, we’re simply listing the closest legislative bodies, starting with the ones that are tied and working downward based on percentage of seats held by the majority party.

There are a few legislative bodies that are close enough to be on this list, but aren’t included because they’re elected in off-years (Louisiana House, 53 D/49 R/1 I/2 V) or everyone gets elected all together in 2010 (Michigan Senate, 17 D/21 R).

This list makes a few of these legislative bodies look to be at more risk of flipping than they actually are. For instance, the Tennessee Senate isn’t likely to flip back to us this year, as we’re facing the potential loss of Democratic held open seats in GOP-leaning rural areas due to retirement. Conversely, Democrats in the Oregon House are likely to strengthen their position because of Republican retirements in suburban Dem-leaning seats. Indiana Democrats also seem optimistic about their ability to hold the razor-close Indiana House.

Likewise, there are chambers where reality might place them a little higher on the list. Most prognosticators, for instance, would agree that the New York Senate flipping to Democratic control is all but a done deal at this point, what with Majority Leader Joe Bruno already having hit the eject button and several GOP old-timers in strongly Democratic seats running on fumes. Similarly, there’s a lot of optimism about retaking the Wisconsin Assembly.

Also, there is a handful of states where the number of seats needed to flip, and the small number of constituents per seat, make it possible that anything can happen. (Consider the New Hampshire House of Representatives in 2006. The GOP controlled 62% of the seats, making it look safe. The Democrats flipped 90 seats (out of 400… NH has by far the largest state legislature) to take firm control. No one saw that coming, proof that anything can happen at this level.)

Alaska may be a prime example, where Dems only need to flip two seats to take control of the Senate… and with indictments cutting a swath through the Republican caucus in the Senate, the popular Governor now facing a mini-scandal of her own, and potentially big Obama coattails, it may be the year to make it happen. The Senates in both North and South Dakota also need only a few flipped seats to change hands, and, again, with Obama coattails, it’s possible; the same applies to the perpetually-close Montana House.

As stated during last month’s state legislature overview, though, useful links about state legislatures are few and far between in the blogosphere, so we need our readers to help be our eyes and ears. If you have any further insights into any of these races or helpful links, please share in the comments.

Yesterday I wrote about how Gordon Smith and the Oregon Republican party had released a web ad and website smearing Jeff Merkley’s record.  Today, the DSCC fired back with a brilliant ad nailing Gordon Smith on the war on Iraq.  See more below the jump…

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

First things, first, if you’ll recall, Gordon Smith and the NRSC released the following web ad a few days back criticizing Merkley’s appearance in some issue ads funded by the Democratic Party of Oregon:

Today the DSCC fires back with an ad (not a web ad, an actual TV ad) criticizing Smith, and particularly his insistence that he is bipartisan and supports tax cuts for real families:

Let me know what you think and if you want to help Jeff take back this country by taking out one of Dubya’s most loyal friends, donate at: http://www.jeffmerkley.com/

Proof that Jeff Merkley is gaining fast in his quest to be the next Senator from the great state of Oregon increases by the day.  In the latest, the Oregon GOP goes after Merkley’s supposed campaign finance violations and then puts up a pathetic website attempting to smear Merkley’s tax record.  More below the jump.

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

The first item today is an ad put out by the NRSC opposing Jeff Merkley’s appearance in some issue ads sponsored by the OR D’s:

The ad makes referrence of a website (http://www.musttaxmerkley.com/) which supposedly proves Merkley has a pro-tax increase record.  Some facts:

1. The newest article on this page is nearly four months old.  Oh and as I was writing this, their site went down…

2. If you go to the “Jeff Merkley’s Record” page, they give two examples of how Merkley supposedly supports higher taxes and bad budget policies  The second is his vote for a renovation of the State Capitol, which was supported by both parties.  Trust me when I say that the pipes were in bad enough condition that the water that came out of them was brown, not to mention other problems the building had.

Enjoy the smell of fear folks, they’re reeking of it.  

The following is the latest in my line of Oregon politics blogs and comes at the suggestion of one of my readers.  Simply put, I will analyze the current cash situation for major non-federal candidates in Oregon (since I believe that the federal races have been well covered here).  

For reference, my latest thoughts on the elections are posted at: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/10/12954/7313/791/549408.

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Oregon Campaign Finance Laws:

Oregon has a unique campaign finance system.  This is because Oregon’s first amendment has been interpreted by the Oregon Supreme Court to give equal protection to commercial and individual free speech, meaning that contribution limits are unconstitutional.  However, Oregon does have stringent reporting requirements, which include requiring all contributions/expenditures to be reported to the state’s new online system ORESTAR (https://secure.sos.state.or.us/eim/jsp/CEMainPage.jsp) within a particular period after the contribution/expenditure is made (it gets shorter the closer we get to the election).

Note: All totals are as recent as possible and are rounded to the nearest thousand.  I only do reports for contested races, so, for example, since the AG’s race has no Republican candidate, I will not report on it.  I exclude the state party’s themselves because their state reporting is not a full picture of their financial status since their contributions are split between federal and state races.

State Party Legislative PACs:

Democrats:

Future PAC (Oregon House):

COH: $627k

Contributions: $572k

Expenditures: $254k

Biggest Contributor: Opportunity PAC (Governor Kulongoski’s PAC)-$25K.

Senate Democratic Leadership Fund (Oregon Senate):

COH: $275k

Contributions: $165k

Expenditures: $77k

Biggest Contributor: Kurt Schrader for State Senate-$20k.

Republicans:

Promote Oregon Leadership (Oregon House):

COH: $46k

Contributions: $298k

Expenditures: $381k

Biggest Contributor: Friends of Bruce Hanna-$20k.

Leadership Fund (Oregon Senate):

COH: $151k

Contributions: $265k

Expenditures: $196k

Biggest Contributor: Roger Beyer for State Senate-$20k.

Oregon Victory PAC (Oregon Legislature):

COH: $142k

Contributions: $195k

Expenditures: $220k

Biggest Contributor: Nancy Lamatta-$30k

Statewide Candidates:

Secretary of State (D Open):

Democratic Candidate: Kate Brown.

COH: $10k

Contributions: $390k

Expenditures: $529k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Education Association-$50k.

Republican Candidate: Rick Dancer

COH: $70k

Contributions: $96k

Expenditures: $25k

Biggest Contributor: Seneca Jones Timber Company-$25k.

State Treasurer (D Open):

Democratic Candidate: Ben Westlund.

COH: $73k

Contributions: $191k

Expenditures: $127k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Education Association-$30k.

Republican Candidate: Allen Alley.

COH: $35k

Contributions: $193k

Expenditures: $178k

Biggest Contributor: Salem Attorney Mark Stevens (in-kind)-$25k.

State Legislature:

Note: Only candidates in contested races are discussed.  Where no information is available that means that the candidate has currently raised and/or spent less than $2k since the May primary and so is not required to report.  This is not so important, however, because of the free and easy transfers available between candidate committees and because many expenditures come from the party and its committees anyways.

District 9 (Stayton) (Republican Interim Defending):

Interim: Fred Girod (R)

No information available.

Challenger: Bob McDonald.

No information available.

District 12 (McMinnville) (Republican Open)

Republican Candidate: Brian Boquist

COH: $26k

Contributions: $15k

Expenditures: Less than $1k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC (OR R’s)-$5k.

Democratic Candidate: Kevin Nortness

Nothing to report.

District 14 (West Slope) (D Interim Defending)

Interim: Mark Hass (D)

COH: $55k

Contributions: $62k

Expenditures: $31k

Biggest Contributor: IBEW-$3k.

Challenger: Lisa Michaels (R)

COH: $3k

Contributions: $3k

Expenditures: $1k

Biggest Contributor: Leadership Fund (OR R’s)-$2k.

District 27 (Bend) (D Open)

Democratic Candidate: Maren Lundgren

COH: $4k

Contributions: $5k

Expenditures: $1k

Biggest Contributor: Truman Club of Central Oregon-$1k.

Republican Candidate: Chris Telfer

COH: $14k

Contributions: $107k

Expenditures: $99k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC and the Leadership Fund-$10k each.

Oregon House:

Note: Districts 9 and 29 have at least temporarily dropped off the competitive races list because Republican challengers were disqualified for filing in a district that they did not actually live in.

District 6 (Medford) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Sal Esquivel (R)

No information available.

Challenger: Lynn Howe (D)

COH: $5k

Contributions: $9k

Expenditures: $4k

Biggest Contributor: Eric Swenson-$750.

District 7 (Roseburg) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Bruce Hanna (R), Hanna is the Republican leader in the OR House, so his numbers are higher.

COH: $74k

Contributions: $111k

Expenditures: $111k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Forest Industries Council-$15k.

Challenger: Donald Nordin (D)

No information available.

District 15 (Albany) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Andy Olson (R)

COH: $115k

Contributions: $72k

Expenditures: $45k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Forest Industries Council-$10k.

Challenger: Dick Olsen (D)

COH: $2k

Contributions: $3k

Expenditures: $1k

Biggest Contributor: Benton County Democratic Party-$1k.

District 17 (Scio) (R Interim Defending):

Interim: Sherrie Sprenger (R)

COH: $6k

Contributions: $51k

Expenditures: $45k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC-$10k.

Challenger: Dale Thackaberry (D)

No information available.

District 18 (R interim defending):

Interim: Vic Gilliam (R)

COH: $27k

Contributions: $65k

Expenditures: $64k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC-$20k.

Challenger: Jim Gilbert (D)

No information available.

District 19 (Salem) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Kevin Cameron (R)

COH: $37k

Contributions: $51k

Expenditures: $23k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Forest Industries Council-$10k

Challenger: Hanten (HD) Day (D)

COH: $6k

Contributions: $13k

Expenditures: $6k

Biggest Contributor: Marion County Democrats (in-kind)-$5k.

District 20 (Independence/Monmouth) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Vicki Berger (R)

COH: $49k

Contributions: $46k

Expenditures: $32k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Beverage PAC (in-kind)-$10k.

Challenger: Richard Riggs (D)

COH: $5k

Contributions: $30k

Expenditures: $26k

Biggest Contributor: Marion County Democrats (in-kind)-$6k.

District 22 (Woodburn) (D Defending)

Incumbent: Betty Komp (D)

No information available.

Challenger: Tom Chereck (R)

No information available.

District 23 (Dallas) (R Open)

Republican Candidate: Jim Thompson

COH: $15k

Contributions: $52k

Expenditures: $43k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC-$10k.

Democratic Candidate: Jason Brown

COH: $11k

Contributions: $14k

Expenditures: $6k

Biggest Contributor: Nancy and Gerald Brown-$5k.

District 24 (McMinnville) (R Open)

Republican Candidate: Jim Weidner

COH: $1k

Contributions: $52k

Expenditures: $54k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC-$10k

Democratic Candidate: Bernt Hansen

No information available.

District 26 (Wilsonville) (R Open)

Republican Candidate: Matt Wingard

COH: $34k

Contributions: $52k

Expenditures: $27k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC-$30k.

Democratic Candidate: Jessica Adamson

COH: $14k

Contributions: $60k

Expenditures: $56k

Biggest Contributor: AGC Committee for Action (Mainly Construction Companies)-$2.5k.

District 30 (Hillsboro) (D Defending)

Incumbent: David Edwards (D)

COH: $25k

Contributions: $26k

Expenditures: $22k

Biggest Contributor: Agency 76 LLC-$2.5k

Challenger: Andy Duyck (R)

No information available, he just came in to replace a Republican candidate who dropped out, so he would not have to report quite yet.

District 35 (Tigard) (D Defending)

Incumbent: Larry Galizio (D)

No information available.

Challenger: Tony Marino (R)

COH: Less than $1k

Contributions: $32k

Expenditures: $32k

Biggest Contributor: Promote Oregon Leadership PAC (in-kind)-$4k.

District 37 (West Linn) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Scott Bruun (R)

No information available.

Challenger: Michele Eberle (D)

No information available.

District 38 (Lake Oswego) (D Open)

Democratic Candidate: Chris Garrett

COH: $2k

Contributions: $118k

Expenditures: $132k

Biggest Contributor: FireFly Studios LLC (in-kind)-$7k.

Republican Candidate: Steve Griffith

No information available.

District 39 (Canby) (R Open)

Republican Candidate: Bill Kennemer

COH: $74k

Contributions: $112k

Expenditures: $59k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC-$20k.

Democratic Candidate: Toby Forsberg

COH: $17k

Contributions: $53k

Expenditures: $38k

Biggest Contributor: David Forsberg-$10k.

District 49 (Gresham) (R Open)

Republican Candidate: John Nelsen

COH: $22k

Contributions: $104k

Expenditures: $83k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC-$30k.

Democratic Candidate: Nick Kahl

COH: $8k

Contributions: $102k

Expenditures: $98k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Trial Lawyers PAC-$5k.

District 50 (Fairview) (R Defending)

Incumbent: John Lim (R)

No information available.

Challenger: Greg Matthews (D)

COH: $38k

Contributions: $66k

Expenditures: $29k

Biggest Contributor: Various Firefighter PACs-$10k each, $40k total.

District 51 (Clackamas) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Linda Flores (R)

No information available.

Challenger: Brent Barton (D)

COH: $105k

Contributions: $84k

Expenditures: $44k

Biggest Contributor: William Barton and Oregon Trial Lawyers PAC-$10k each.

District 52 (Corbett) (R Open)

Republican Candidate: Matt Lindland (R)

No information available.

Democratic Candidate: Suzanne VanOrman (D)

No information available.

District 54 (Bend) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Chuck Burley (R)

COH: $27k

Contributions: $95k

Expenditures: $89k

Biggest Contributor: Friends of Bruce Hanna (in-kind)-$8k.

Challenger: Judy Stiegler (D)

COH: $18k

Contributions: $26k

Expenditures: $14k

Biggest Contributor: Truman Club of Central OR-$4.5k.

District 59 (The Dalles) (R Interim Defending)

Interim: John Huffman (R)

No information available.

Challenger: Mike Ahern (D)

COH: $10k

Contributions: $32k

Expenditures: $22k

Biggest Contributor: Jason Hale-$10k.

Let me know what you think.

This latest in my continuing series of diaries on Oregon politics will discuss the current status of Oregon’s political landscape by using voter registration as a guide.  With this model, we can see clearly how strongly the Democratic party is positioned for this fall.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Key:

Names listed are those of the party’s candidate holding the seat.

For Congressional districts, multiply the State Senate values by five.

Strong District: Oregon House Voter Reg. Difference 10k or more, Senate Voter Reg. 20k or more.

Likely District: Oregon House 5-10k Difference, Senate 10-20k Difference.

Lean District: Oregon House 3-5k Difference, Senate 6-9k Difference.

Tossup District: Oregon House less than 3k Difference, Senate less than 6k Difference.

*=Opposition party has registration edge of 1k or more.

x=Candidate is unopposed (by a major party candidate).

All values are rounded to the nearest thousand, source of data is: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/may202008/p08stats.pdf.

My read on the state of the races is here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/10/12954/7313/791/549408.

Congressional Races:

District 1 (D): D+ 57k, Likely D.

District 2 (R): R+ 33k, Leans R.

District 3 (D): D+ 125k, Strong D.

District 4 (D): D+ 36k, Leans D.

District 5 (D): D+ 19k, Tossup.

Oregon Legislature:

Oregon Senate:

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.

Seats NOT up for re-election this year:

Total: 14 (Due to a vacancy filler election in one district).

D-Held: 10.

R-Held; 4.

Summary:

Strong D: 3

Likely D: 2

Lean D: 3

Tossup D: 1.

Strong R: 0.

Likely R: 2.

Leans R: 3.

Tossup R: 2.

Uncontested Races:

D-Held: 5, 3 Strong, 2 Lean.

R-Held: 3, 1 Likely, 2 Lean.

Districts in which the opposition party has a voter registration edge:

D: 1, Westlund’s seat.

R: 0.

Up For Re-Election:

Strong Districts:

21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D)-x.

22 (Portland)-Carter (D)-x.

23 (NE Portland)-Dingfelder (D)-x.

Likely Districts:

2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).

17 (Beaverton)-Bonamicci (D)-2 year vacancy filler)

18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).

28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R)-x.

Lean Districts:

1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).

5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D)-x.

14 (West Slope)-Hass (D).

25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D)-x.

29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R)-x.

30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R)-x.

Tossup Districts:

9 (Stayton)-Girod (R).

12 (McMinville)-Boquist (R).

27 (Bend)-Telfer (R)*-Pickup from Westlund (D).

Oregon House:

All the seats are up for election this year.

Current Composition: 31D, 29R.

Summary:

Strong D: 9.

Likely D: 10.

Leans D: 7.

Tossup D: 5.

Strong R: 0.

Likely R: 4.

Leans R: 5.

Tossup R: 20.

Uncontested Races:

D-Held: 19, 7 Strong, 6 Likely, 4 Lean, 2 Tossup.

R-Held: 6, 4 Likely, 1 Lean, 1 Tossup.

Districts in which the opposition party has a voter registration edge:

D-Held: 0.

R-Held: 6 (Berger, Nelsen, Lim, Flores, Lindland, Burley).

Strong Districts:

8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D)-x.

33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D)-x.

36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).

41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).

42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D)-x.

43 (Portland)-Shields (D)-x.

44 (Portland)-Kotek (D)-x.

45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D)-x.

46 (Portland)-Cannon (D)-x.

Likely Districts:

4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R)-x.

5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D)-x.

10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-x.

11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D)-x.

12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).

13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D)-x.

16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).

27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).

31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D)-x.

38 (Lake Oswego)-Garrett (D).

47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D)-x.

55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R)-x.

56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R)-x.

60 (Ontario)-Benz (R)-x.

Lean Districts:

2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).

3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).

6 (Medford)-Esquivel (R).

9 (Coos Bay)-Roblan (D).

14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D)-x.

28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D)-x.

34 (Beaverton)-Harker (D).

35 (Tigard)-Galizio (D).

40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D)-x.

48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D)-x.

53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).

57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R)-x.

Tossup Districts:

1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).

7 (Roseburg)-Hanna (R).

15 (Albany)-Olson (R).

17 (Scio)-Sprenger (R).

18 (Silverton)-Gilliam (R).

19 (Salem)-Cameron (R).

20 (Independence/Monmouth)-Berger (R)*.

21 (Salem)-Clem (D)-x.

22 (Woodburn)-Komp (D).

23 (Dallas)-Thompson (R).

24 (McMinnville)-Wiedner (R).

25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R)-x.

26 (Wilsonville)-Wingard (R).

29 (Hillsboro)-Riley (D).

30 (Hillsboro)-Edwards (D).

32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D)-x.

37 (West Linn)-Bruun (R).

39 (Canby)-Kennemer (R).

49 (Gresham)-Nelsen (R)*.

50 (Fairview)-Lim (R)*.

51 (Clackamas)-Flores (R)*.

52 (Corbett)-Lindland (R)*.

54 (Bend)-Burley (R)*.

58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).

59 (The Dalles)-Huffman (R).

Let me know what you think.

In order so that those of you who have been reading my Oregon politics diaries can understand who these people are I have been talking about, I present the following entry.  For brevity’s sake, only statewide and congressional candidates will be discussed.

For your information, my last Oregon elections preview is here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/10/12954/7313/791/549408.

Cross posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do?diaryId=1234

Statewide Offices:

US Senate (R Defending)

Incumbent: Gordon Smith

Party: Republican.

Birthdate: 05/25/1952

Hometown: Pendleton.

Experience in Current Job: 12 Years.

Previous Government Experience: Oregon State Senator 1993-1997

President, Oregon State Senate 1995-1997.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-40%.

ACLU-57%.

Gun Owners of America-0% last year, 100% the year before that.

AFL-CIO-44%.

Did You Know: Gordon Smith’s brother Milan Dale Smith, Jr. is a federal judge, appointed by Dubya in 2006 to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.

Challenger: Jeff Merkley

Party: Democratic

Birthdate: 10/24/1956

Hometown: Portland.

Experience in Current Job (If an elected official): 10 Years.

Previous Government Experience: Speaker of the House, Oregon State House of Representatives, present

Representative, Oregon State House of Representatives, 1998-present.

Democratic Leader, Oregon State House of Representatives.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-75%.

NRA-F, every year they have rated him.

AFL-CIO-94%.

Did You Know: Among his previous work, Merkley was head of Portland Habitat for Humanity, where he successfully helped expand the program’s reach and success.

Congressional Races:

District 1 (D Defending):

Incumbent: David Wu

Party: Democratic

Birthdate: 04/08/1955

Hometown: Portland

Experience in Current Job: 10 Years

Previous Government Experience: Commissioner, Oregon Planning Commission.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-100%.

NRA-F.

AFL-CIO-96%.

Did You Know: David Wu was the first-ever Taiwanese-American representative.

Challenger: Joel Haugen

Party: Republican

Birthdate: 11/19/1949

Hometown: Scapoose

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: Scappoose Park and Recreation Commissioner, Scappoose Park and Recreation Commission, 2002-2004.

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A

Did You Know: He cites as his political inspiration a Minnesota legislator by the name of John McKee.

District 2 (R Defending)

Incumbent: Greg Walden

Party: Republican

Birthdate: 01/10/1957

Hometown: Hood River

Experience in Current Job: 10 Years.

Previous Government Experience:

Senator, Oregon State Senate, 1995-1997

Representative, Oregon State House of Representatives, 1988-1995

Majority Leader, Oregon State House of Representatives, 1991-1993

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100% last year, 35% the year before.

ACLU-17%.

NRA-A.

AFL-CIO-42%.

Did You Know: Until recently Walden owned Columbia Gorge Broadcasting, which ran five radio stations in the Columbia Gorge area.

Challenger: Noah Lemas

Party: Democratic

Birthdate: 02/16/1970

Hometown: Bend

Experience in Current Job: N/A.

Previous Government Experience: N/A.

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A.

Did You Know: Noah has been a successful entrepreneur in the snowboard industry, building and then selling off two companies (Sunriver Snowboards and Side Effect Board Shop).

District 3 (D Defending)

Incumbent: Earl Blumenauer

Party: Democratic

Birthdate: 08/16/1949

Hometown: Portland

Experience in Current Job: 12 Years.

Previous Government Experience:

Commissioner of Public Works, Portland City Council, 1986-1996

Commissioner, Multnomah County Commission, 1978-1986

Representative, Oregon State House, 1973-1978.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-100%.

NRA-F.

AFL-CIO-96%.

Did You Know: Earl got his start in elected office in the 1970s as a proponent of the Right to Die, Right to Vote Constitutional amendment, which lowered the voting age to 18.

Challenger: Delia Lopez

Party: Republican

Birthdate: 02/14/1963

Hometown: Oakland (OR)

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: N/A

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A

Did You Know: Is running in Earl’s district despite the fact that she lives in the fourth district, in which Peter DeFazio (D) is unopposed.

District 4 (D Unopposed)

Incumbent: Peter DeFazio

Party: Democratic

Birthdate: 05/27/1947

Hometown: Springfield

Experience in Current Job: 22 Years.

Previous Government Experience: Chair, Lane County Commission, 1982-1986.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-100%.

NRA-B.

AFL-CIO-96%.

Did You Know: In his prior life before becoming an elected official, DeFazio was a gerontologist (someone who studies the social, psychological and biological aspects of aging).

District 5 (D Open)

Democrat: Kurt Schrader

Birthdate: N/A.

Hometown: Canby.

Experience in Current Job: 6 Years.

Previous Government Experience: Senator, Oregon State Senate, 2002-present

Representative, Oregon State House of Representatives, 1996-2002

Former Chair, Canby, Oregon Planning Commission.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-67%.

NRA-B-.

AFL-CIO-89%.

Did You Know: Kurt has been both an organic farmer and a veterinarian.  His wife is currently chair of the Clackamas County Board of Commissioners.

Republican: Mike Erickson

Birthdate: N/A

Hometown: Salem

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: N/A

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A

Did You Know: Erickson was the placekicker and punter for Portland State’s football team and still holds the school record for career field goals made with 32.

Statewide Offices:

Attorney General (D Unopposed)

Democrat: John Kroger

Birthdate: N/A

Hometown: Portland

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: Deputy Policy Director of Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign, legislative assistant to U. S. Representative Tom Foley (D-WA) and U. S. Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY).

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A.

Did You Know: Kroger was a well-respected prosecutor, having won cases against defendants ranging from Mafia kingpins to Enron executives before moving to Portland to become a professor at the Lewis and Clark Law School.

Secretary of State (D Open)

Democrat: Kate Brown

Birthdate: 06/21/1960

Hometown: Portland

Experience in Current Job: 12 Years.

Previous Government Experience: Senator, Oregon State Senate, 1996-present

Representative, Oregon State House of Representatives, 1991-1996.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-56%.

NRA-F.

AFL-CIO-89%.

Did You Know: Kate Brown was born in Torrejon de Ardoth, Spain and grew up in Minnesota.  Before running for elective office, she was an attorney, practicing Family and Juvenile law.

Republican: Rick Dancer

Birthdate: N/A

Hometown: Eugene

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: N/A

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A

Did You Know: Dancer’s last job was an the anchor for Eugene’s ABC affiliate, KEZI.

State Treasurer (D Open)

Democrat: Ben Westlund

Birthdate: 09/03/1949

Hometown: Bend

Experience in Current Job: 6 Years.

Previous Government Experience:

Senator, Oregon State Senate, 2002-present

Representative, Oregon State House, 1997-2002.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-50%.

NRA-A+ (While still a Republican)

AFL-CIO-100%.

Did You Know: In response to a number of his positions, not least of which was his fight for GLBT rights and universal health care, opposed by the Republican Party, Westlund switched from Republican to Independent in 2006 and then from Independent to Democrat last year.

Republican: Allen Alley

Birthdate: N/A.

Hometown: Lake Oswego

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: Former Deputy Chief of Staff to Governor Kulongoski (D) for about a year.

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A.

Did You Know: Alley was the co-founder and former CEO of Pixelworks, a “Semiconductor company which designs, develops and markets highly integrated system-on-a-chip solutions for broadband communications.”

Let me know what you think.

The following is my latest read on this fall’s Oregon elections.  This update is prompted by the release of some new registration data that goes down to the state legislative district level, thus allowing me to more correctly analyze the races.  This update includes all candidate races at the state legislative level and up (excluding local races) but does not include ballot measures.

For information, see my previous OR politics diaries:

Oregon Ballot Measures: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/25/113448/828/338/541717

Oregon’s Vote By Mail System FAQ (Written for the primary): http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/19/124239/061/359/518313.

My first post-primary update: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/16/121742/983/269/536725.

Crossposted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do?diaryId=1227

Data Sources:

Registration data comes from this document: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/may202008/p08stats_web.pdf or here: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/may202008/p08stats.pdf

Primary Election Results are here: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/may202008/p08results.html

The Statewide Layout:

Total Registered Voters: About 2 Million.

Democrats: 42% (+200k vs. Republicans)

Republicans: 33%.

Nonpartisan/Others: 25%.

Key:

Size of Districts:

State House: Aprox. 55k.

State Senate: Aprox. 110k.

The incumbent is always listed first, or failing that, the incumbent party.

Ratings:

Tossup-Margin less than 3%.

Lean-3-10% margin.

Likely-11-20% margin.

Safe-More than 20% margin.

Inc=Incumbent, Int=Interim Incumbent (Someone appointed to fill a seat until the next election due typically to resignation of the previous holder.  State law allows the party which held the seat to essentially appoint the replacement.  For example, when my State Senator resigned to take a job as the leader of a moderate Business Lobbying group, as a Precinct Committee Person I was entitled to vote for his replacement, which was then ratified by the County Commission).

Statewide Races:

US President

Candidates: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D).

Summary: The fact that McCain isn’t even trying to contest Oregon says a lot.  It would be a reach for him at best.  Obama, on the other hand, sent a bunch of the Obama fellows here a few weeks ago and is ramping up for the fall.

Rating: Leans to Likely Obama.

US Senate

Candidates: Sen. Gordon Smith (R-inc) vs. Speaker of the OR House Jeff Merkley (D).

Summary: This continues to be a bit of an uphill battle for Merkley.  However, Gordon’s Smith strange tack to the left, which has been widely discussed here and elsewhere, makes one wonder how this race is really shaping up.  Smith’s biggest advantage is still his $ lead but that is diminishing.  

Rating: Leans Smith.

Secretary of State

Candidates: State Senate Majority Leader Kate Brown (D) vs. Eugene TV Reporter Rick Dancer (R).

Summary: Kate Brown is going to absolutely kick the crap out of Dancer.  Dancer isn’t even that good of a candidate.  On an early appearance on Lars Larson’s talk radio program (he’s a well known conservative for those who don’t know), he seemed unaware of much of what the SOS actually does.

Rating: Likely to Safe Brown.

Attorney General

John Kroger (D) is unopposed.

State Treasurer

Candidates: State Senator Ben Westlund (D) vs. former Kulongoski staffer Allan Alley (R).

Summary: It is always so fan to see the Republicans go after Westlund, who used to be one of them until he saw the light.  Ben has the support of those on both sides of the aisle and should cruise to an easy victory here.

Rating: Likely to Safe Westlund.

Labor Commissioner (Technically a nonpartisan race, 2 year vacancy filling election)

Candidates: Former State Senator Brad Avakian (D-inc.) vs. Founder, Instructor/Provider of a physical and mental fitness program Pavel Goberman (D).

Summary: Avakian should have little trouble, given his status as a well known figure in state politics.

Rating: Safe Avakian.

Congressional Races:

District 1: Wu (D-inc) will cruise.

District 2: Walden (R-inc) will have little trouble.  If the margin is under 10% that’s a victory for the Ds.

District 3: Blumenauer (D-inc) is well-loved in this district and for good reason.

District 4: DeFazio (D-inc) is unopposed.

District 5

Candidates: State Senator Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Businessman and 2006 R Nominee Mike Erickson (R).

Registration Info: 161k Ds, 142k Rs, 98k NP/Others.

Summary: Time was this was considered one of the most contentious house races in the country.  Then two things happened.  First, the Obama registration boost changed this district from one with a very slight D edge to a somewhat substantial one.  Second, Kevin Mannix, who lost the R primary to Erickson, accused Erickson, who had claimed he was pro-life, of paying for a former girlfriend’s abortion.  This assertion was proven to be at least somewhat true and the resulting turmoil, along with some other recent discoveries has knocked Erickson well behind the pace.  Still, he can self-finance to a significant enough extent that this race is not out of reach for him.

Rating: Leans Schrader.  

Oregon Legislature:

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.

Projected Composition: 18D, 12R (1 I to D and one D to R).

Safe Races:

1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).

2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).

5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D).

18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).

21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D).

22 (Portland)-Carter (D).

23 (NE Portland)-Dingfelder (D), this is technically a net pickup of 1, as Avel Gordly is an I.

25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D).

28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R).

29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R).

30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R).

The following districts are competitive, or at least potentially competitive.

9 (Stayton)

Candidates: Fred Girod (R-int) vs. Bob McDonald (D).

Registration: R+4.5k.

Summary: The fact that this race is even competitive ought to really scare the Rs.  Girod still has the edge though.

Outlook: Leans to Likely Girod.

12 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Brian Boquist (R) vs. Kevin Nortness (D).

Registration: R+2.5k

Summary: The Rs had to scramble to get Boquist to run for this fairly safe seat.  This district is certainly changing but I don’t know if it is changing fast enough or if Nortness is a good enough candidate to replace the well-known Boquist.

Outlook: Leans to Likely Boquist.

14 (West Slope/Beaverton-My district!)

Candidates: Mark Hass (D-int) vs. Lisa Michaels (R).

Registration: D+10k.

Summary: In 2000 this seat was the site of the most expensive legislative campaign in OR history to that point as Ryan Deckert (D) unseated Eileen Qutub (R).  My how things change as the popular Hass looks ready to cruise here.

Outlook: Likely Hass.

27 (Bend)

Candidates: Marien Lundgren (D) vs. Chris Telfer (R).

Registration: R+3.5k

Summary: This is Ben Westlund’s seat and it would be a huge accomplishment to hold it (he won it twice running as a Republican).  That being said, I think its far more possible that a hold could occur now given the blue trend of Deschutes County, the center of this district.

Outlook: Leans Telfer.

Oregon House:

Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.

Projected Composition: 32 D, 21 R, 7 Tossups (all Rs) and it could be a lot worse for the Rs.

The following seats are rated either safe or likely:

1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).

2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).

3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).

4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R).

5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D).

8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D).

10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-She won this seat by all of 750 votes two years ago and the Rs couldn’t find an opponent for her.

11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D).

12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).

13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D).

14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D).

16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).

21 (Salem)-Clem (D).

25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R).

27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).

28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D).

31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D).

32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D).

33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D).

34 (Beaverton)-Harker (D).

36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).

40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D).

41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).

42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D).

43 (Portland)-Shields (D).

44 (Portland)-Kotek (D).

45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D).

46 (Portland)-Cannon (D).

47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D).

48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D).

53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).

55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R).

56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R).

57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R).

58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).

60 (Ontario)-Benz (R).

The following seats are competitive:

6 (Medford)

Candidates: Sal Esquivel (R-inc.) vs. Lynn Howe (D).

Registration: R+3.5k

Summary: No one believed me two years ago when I said this seat would be competitive, and then Esquivel barely eked out a win.  My guess is that he won’t be caught napping this time, though.

Outlook: Leans Esquivel.

7 (Roseburg)

Candidates: Bruce Hanna (R-inc) vs. Donald Nordin (D).

Registration: R+1.6k

Summary: This would be my shocker of the year if an upset happened.  This district, which has been solidly red for decades, or so it seems, has seen a huge drop in the Republican registration edge.  Hanna is also not the greatest politician in the world to begin with but still has an edge here.

Outlook: Leans Hanna.

9 (Coos Bay)

Candidates: Arnie Roblan (D-inc.) vs. Al Pearn (R).

Registration: D+3k

Summary: This 2006 rematch should not be any different than the last one.  Roblan has a good read on this district and should win his easiest battle yet.  

Outlook: Leans Roblan.

15 (Albany)

Candidates: Andy Olson (R-inc.) vs. Dick Olsen (D).

Registration: D and R even

Summary: This district was not on anyone’s list but mine two years ago as potentially competitive.  Now with an even registration mix, a chance for an upset is there.  Olson, a former State Policeman, has the edge at this point though.

Outlook: Leans Olson.

17 (Scio)

Candidates: Sherrie Sprenger (R-int.) vs. Dale Thackaberry (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Following a bloody and divisive R primary, Thackaberry has a real chance to pull an upset.  Add to that the fact that Sprenger has never won a general election here.  Still, this is definitely a district with an R tilt, so it’ll be an uphill battle.

Outlook: Leans Sprenger.

18 (Silverton)

Candidates: Vic Gilliam (R-int.) vs. Jim Gilbert (D).

Registration: R+2.5k

Summary: Jim Gilbert is back for another attempt at an upset here.  This is clearly his best chance yet but it won’t be easy.

Outlook: Leans Gilliam.

19 (Salem)

Candidates: Kevin Cameron (R-inc.) vs. Hanten (HD) Day (D).

Registration: R+1k

Summary: This is a district that should be more competitive than it has in the past.  With a lack of need to defend their own seats, this may become a statewide target, which makes an upset possible.

Outlook: Leans Cameron.

20 (Independence/Monmouth)

Candidates: Vicki Berger (R-inc.) vs. Richard Riggs (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: Berger is one of the last remaining liberal Republicans that Oregon used to develop like crazy.  She’s in for fight for her life this time due much more to both the state of the Republican party and the slight D registration edge though.

Outlook: Tossup.

22 (Woodburn)

Candidates: Betty Komp (D-inc.) vs. Tom Chereck (R).

Registration: D+2k.

Summary: I have to put this as competitive because its Woodburn.  However, Komp has really done a great job in this district and should win pretty easily.  Interestingly, this district has the lowest number of registered voters in the state, likely due to the large number of undocumented workers living here.

Outlook: Leans Komp.

23 (Dallas)

Candidates: Jim Thompson (R) vs. Jason Brown (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: This open seat battle could be one for the books.  That being said, I have to give the edge to Thompson for now because it is an R-leaning district.

Outlook: Leans Thompson.

24 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Jim Wiedner (R) vs. Bernt Hansen (D).

Registration: D and R even.

Summary: This was the seat that Kossack Sal Peralta almost won in 2006.  If Hansen can run a good campaign, a win is definitely possible here.  I’m moving this one to a tossup.

Outlook: Tossup.

26 (Wilsonville)

Candidates: Matt Wingard (R) vs. Jessica Adamson (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Sometimes the opportunities just fall into your lap.  In this case, it turns out that Wingard has been arrested for hitting his children before.  However, this is still an R district so Wingard has a slight edge.

Outlook: Leans Wingard.

29 (Hillsboro)

Candidates: Chuck Riley (D-inc.) vs. TBD (R) and Terry Rilling (R turned I).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: Rilling’s decision to run as an I likely will give Riley an easy win.  Not that he wouldn’t have won anyways.  Add to that the ruling by the SOS that former R candidate Jeff Duyck doesn’t actually live in this district and is therefore ineligible to run for it and this race is close to sliding off the competitive race board.

Outlook: Leans Riley.

30 (Hillsboro)

Candidates: David Edwards (D-inc.) vs. Andy Duyck (R).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: The Republicans are all excited that Duyck is going to be their candidate here.  The well-known Washington County Commissioner is a solid candidate but this is not the Hillsboro that existed ten or even five years ago.  It has taken a solid blue turn and add to that the fact that Edwards is battle tested and he should win.

Outlook: Leans Edwards.

35 (Tigard)

Candidates: Larry Galizio (D-inc.) vs. Tony Marino (R).

Registration: D+3k

Summary: Tony Marino’s story keeps getting weirder and weirder.  First it was his criminal record, then it was the revelation that he was an online ordained Priest and now the information that he runs an online diploma mill.  Add to that the fact that this district, which Galizio won by a scant 850 votes four years ago, is no longer really a tossup district and Larry should win easily here.  This race may slide off the competitive races board by the next update.

Outlook: Leans Galizio.

37 (West Linn)

Candidates: Scott Bruun (R-inc.) vs. Michele Eberle (D).

Registration: D and R even.

Summary: Bruun is a well-known figure in this district; his family has run a construction business for over 100 years in the area.  Still, this year he will have to fight hard to keep this swing district, which now has even registration.

Outlook: Tossup.

38 (Lake Oswego)

Candidates: Chris Garrett (D) vs. Steve Griffith (R).

Registration: D+6k

Summary: If Griffith were a D, which he practically is in many ways, this district would be his.  However, he is not.  Add to that this district’s substantial D edge and the fact that Griffith will not likely get the $ he needs to be competitive and Garrett should cruise.

Outlook: Leans Garrett.

39 (Canby)

Candidates: Bill Kennemer (R) vs. Tony Forsberg (D).

Registration: D+.5k

Summary: Kossack Mike Caudle almost pulled off a major upset here in 2006 against the then R-leader Wayne Scott. As an open seat race, this one is too close to call.

Outlook: Tossup.

49 (Gresham)

Candidates: John Nelsen (R) vs. Nick Kahl (D).

Registration: D+4k

Summary: Two years ago about the only major disappointment I had was Minnis winning this district.  With her out of the picture, this should be a D pickup, especially with the substantial D edge in this district.

Outlook: Leans Kahl.

50 (Fairview)

Candidates: John Lim (R-inc.) vs. Greg Matthews (D).

Registration: D+2.5k

Summary: How Lim keeps winning here is a mystery.  He should be in for the fight of his life this year with this district clearly trending blue.

Outlook: Tossup.

51 (Clackamas)

Candidates: Linda Flores (R-inc.) vs. Brent Barton (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: How I would love to get rid of the racist Flores.  Barton has as good a chance as anyone, although it is definitely an uphill battle, despite the small D registration edge.

Outlook: Leans Flores.

52 (Corbett)

Candidates: Matt Lindland (R) vs. Suzanne VanOrman (D).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: In case you’re wondering, yes Matt Lindland is indeed otherwise known as UFC fighter Matt “The Law” Lindland.  This is a dead tossup district this year and should be fun to watch.

Outlook: Tossup.

54 (Bend)

Candidates: Chuck Burley (R-inc.) vs. Judy Stiegler (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: This district has been trending blue over the past several years.  This could well be the year Stiegler, who barely lost to Burley in an open seat race here four years ago, breaks through and wins it.

Outlook: Tossup.

59 (The Dalles)

Candidates: John Huffman (R-int.) vs. Mike Ahern (D).

Registration: R+1k97

Summary: This was the district that shocked everyone in 2006 as it was almost a D pickup.  However, I think Huffman will not be caught unaware as a result, though an upset is possible.

Outlook: Leans Huffman.

Well that’s it, let me know what you think.

Both for my own amusement and because I believe it, I am presenting the following list of why all Obama supporters should be Oregon Ducks fans  This list is meant in satire and I apologize in advance to those I may offend/attack (read: Michigan, Washington, USC, Notre Dame and perhaps Oregon State fans).  Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do?diaryId=1222

10: Just like Obama, Oregon is always underrated.  No one ever expects us to be good.  In fact, over the last ten years, Oregon is the third most underrated football team in the country, ranking, on average 32.5 spots higher in the final poll of the season than in the pre-season poll.

9: Oregon, like Obama, takes pride in changing the status quo.  Fifteen years ago, no one had heard of Oregon sports, now we are among the best in the country in both football and basketball.  Unlike say Notre Dame, which seems to rest largely on its own past performances.

8: Oregon, like Obama, is an offensive-minded team.  Lead by Dennis Dixon, for example, Oregon’s spread offense last season was among the best in the country.  Just see this play again Michigan as evidence:

7: Oregon, like Obama, is thought of by its detractors as more than a little corny.  While in Obama’s case it is the slogan “Change you can believe in”, in Oregon’s case it is our uniforms, as seen below:

.

6: Even as our opponents cheat, in Obama’s case McCain, in our case, Washington and USC, both Oregon and Obama refuse to do so.  Both of us win regardless, which should be respected.

5: Both Oregon and Obama get smeared as being part of a subversive plot.  While for Obama it is the fake Muslim smear, in Oregon’s it is the accusation that because Phil Knight gives a lot of money to the athletic department he essentially runs it.  Both are untrue and both Oregon and Obama rise above it.

4: Both Oregon and Obama face opponents who don’t know when to quit.  Oregon’s rival Oregon State refuses to accept that it is never going to fully catch-up to the Ducks, especially in basketball, while Hillary took a good long time before quitting.  Even when they have lost, there are some in both cases, that refuse to admit it.

3: Neither Oregon nor Obama stand by and takes sh-t from anybody.  Just like Obama quickly responds to smears leveled against him, Oregon’s mascot last year beat the crap out of Houston’s mascot when it appeared to show the Duck up.  Just watch and you’ll see what I mean:

2: The Yell-O chant Ducks fans do at games can be used for Obama as well.  In fact, it was used during both of Obama’s Eugene rallies this fall.  See an example of it in the video below the next item.

1: Both Oregon and Obama draw large very enthusiastic crowds.  Oregon’s are considered some of the loudest and best in all of college sports, just as Obama’s are in the political arena.  See below for an example (the students are doing the “Yell-O” I mention in the last point):

Let me know what you think.

With the submission of signatures for this year’s Oregon Ballot Measures, I thought I’d run down their chances of making the ballot and what they mean, along with listing those ideas that will not make it this year.  Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun (http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do?diaryId=1220).

On July 3, petitioners turned in the last of their required signatures for this year’s crop of proposed ballot initiatives.  The SOS has until about the end of the month to verify whether they are valid or not.

The data sources for most of this come from the SOS’s website at: http://egov.sos.state.or.us/elec/web_irr_search.search_form

Acronyms:

AG: Attorney General.

SOS: Secretary of State.

Some process basics:

Although commonly thought only as an Initiative process, the actual truth is that there are four major types of ballot measures (of which the first three are by far the most common):

Legislative Referrals-Typically these are constitutional modifications but they can be statutory as well (See 2007’s Measure 49, which modified the state’s land use laws as an example).  Depending on the specific measure, they require either a simple majority or, in some cases, a 3/5 majority to get on the ballot.

Citizen Statutory Initiatives-Change or create state law.  They require 82,679 signatures.

Citizen Constitutional Initiatives-Change the Oregon Constitution.  They require 110,358 signatures.

Citizen Referrals-Refer a recently passed law, by the legislature, to the people for a vote, most recently seen in the failed attempts to get votes on the state’s new domestic partnership (civil unions) and GLBT civil rights laws.  They require 55,179 signatures, which must be turned in within 90 days after the law is signed by the Governor.

Signature Verification Method:

Oregon is unique in that it does not generally verify every single signature.  Instead, the SOS randomly samples about 10-15% of the signatures and verifies them against the statewide database.  There are accepted ratios that for every type of violation (such as out of state, not registered and duplicate signatures) that are found, there are likely to be a certain number in the full set.  If a sampling shows a measure may not have enough to qualify, the SOS then takes a second equally sized sample and verifies that.  Typically about 65-75% of signatures submitted for a measure are valid, although non-paid signature gatherers tend to do much better than paid ones.  The recent record for paid signature gatherers is 85-90% by the Christian Right folks, who get such high validity rates by passing around the petitions at churches, where registration is high.

Changes to Oregon’s Initiative Laws:

In response to a number of minor scandals, mostly by conservative groups, the Oregon Legislature passed HB 2082 in 2007, which set down increased requirements for gathering signatures.  Simply put, the requirements  are as follows:

1. Required online training courses and certification for all paid signature gatherers.

2. The state will now provide basic templates for petition signature sheets.  In the past, sheets were given a guide, which was often followed incorrectly, leading to invalidated signatures.

3. 1,000 signatures must now be submitted to get a ballot title (the description that goes on the ballot, widely considered a key part of whether a measure passes or not).  Previously, only 50 signatures were required, leading to “title shopping”, where groups would submit many versions of the same measure to try and get a good ballot title.

4. The requirement that each sheet only contain signatures from persons in only one county is repealed.  This was done because with the new statewide voter registration database, it was an unnecessary restriction.

5. Increased restrictions on signature gatherers related to what they can or can’t do to correct invalid information on a petition sheet.

6. The SOS now serves as the campaign finance organization for all initiatives in the state, including local initiatives.  Previously, the SOS only worked on state level measures.

7. All signature gathering companies are required to maintain and submit regular accounts showing that petitioners were paid in a manner that was not per signature but by hour/day.  This provision has caused a lot of trouble for some initiatives and may well keep some off the ballot.  It is currently being challenged in federal court, but is not expected to be successfully so.

8. All sponsors and signature gathering firms are now held personally liable for the illegal activities of anyone working for/under contract to them.  This is important because up to now only the signature gatherers themselves was liable.

Failed Ideas:

The following measures are a selection of the bad ideas that thankfully will not qualify for this year’s ballot:

Note: All Measures are listed by the Initiative Petition (IP) number.

Key:

S-Statutory Measure

C-Constitutional Measure

22-C: Would have “Made Oregon Constitutional Guarantee Of Free Expression Of Opinion Inapplicable To Conduct Or Personal Behavior”.

23-S: Would have banned any teaching that “promotes GLBT behavior” at public schools and universities.

35-S/36-C: Would have allowed building a casino on the location of the old Multnomah Greyhound track.  The State Constitution currently prohibits casino gambling outside of Indian Reservations (and has since the state’s founding).

78-C: Would have posed a supermajority requirement (3/4) on the legislature for passing a law with an emergency clause.  This is important because laws with an emergency clause are not subject to a referendum petition since they take affect immediately upon their signature by the governor.

105-S: Would have revoked the right of the federal government to own state land, would have reverted such land to the counties for ownership.  This measure was rejected by the AG’s office on the grounds that the state did not have the authority do take this action.

108-C: Would have declared that using public funds to perform abortions is murder.

112-S: Would have basically turned all state workers into federal immigration officers, requiring them to verify status of all they serve.

Measures Submitting Signatures:

This list only includes those measures that had not reached the required number of signatures before I wrote about them last.  For a list of all measures, see this diary: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/25/113448/828/338/541717.

Key:

Validity Rate-Percentage of Signatures found valid in previous submissions.

Required Signature Numbers: Statutory 82,769, Constitutional 110,358.

20-S

Chief Sponsor: Anti-tax activist Bill Sizemore

Summary: Requires teacher pay to be based on “performance” not seniority.

Valid Signatures Previously Submitted: 81,149.

Previous Validity Rate: 65%.

Signatures now submitted: 3,784.

Required Validity Rate: 43%.

Will it Qualify: Yes.

41-C

Chief Sponsor: Longtime loser Republican candidate Kevin Mannix.

Summary: Dedicates 15% of Lottery funds to Crime Prevention, Investigation and Prosecution efforts.

Valid Signatures Previously Submitted: 102,565.

Previous Validity Rate: 64%.

Signatures now submitted: 18,183.

Required Validity Rate: 43%.

Will it Qualify: Yes.

51-S

Chief Sponsor: Conservative Activist R. Russell Walker.

Summary: Caps Attorneys fees, a classic “tort reform measure”.

Valid Signatures Previously Submitted: 68,227

Previous Validity Rate: 64%.

Signatures now submitted: 19,129

Required Validity Rate: 76%.

Will it Qualify: Likely No.

Note: The sponsors for this measure are currently challenging the state’s new initiative requirements, especially those related to providing “accounts” for all signature gathering efforts.  As such, these recently submitted signatures should technically not count since they are not currently in compliance with the law.  However, the SOS has agreed to provisionally count them pending the outcome of the lawsuit.

53-S

Chief Sponsor: Walker.

Summary: Requires sanctioning of attorneys who file “frivolous lawsuits”.

Valid Signatures Previously Submitted: 69,263.

Previous Validity Rate: 64%.

Signatures now submitted: 19,383

Required Validity Rate: 70%.

Will it Qualify: Leans No.

Note: As with the last one, these signatures are currently presumed invalid as the sponsors are not in compliance with the initiative requirements posed by the SOS.

109-S

Chief Sponsor: Former SOS Phil Keisling (D).

Summary: Creates an “Open Primary” allowing top two, regardless of party affiliation advance to the general election in most cases.

Valid Signatures Previously Submitted: 69,383.

Validity Rate: 76%.

Signatures now submitted: 27,421.

Required Validity Rate: 49%.

Will it Qualify: Likely Yes.

Let me know what you think.

The following is a preview of the initiatives that are expected to/may qualify for the 2008 fall ballot.  All signatures are due by July 3, 2008 if they have not already been submitted.  Crossposted from Daily Kos (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/25/113448/828/338/541717)

Some Oregon Initiative Basics:

Although commonly thought only as an Initiative process, the actual truth is that there are four major types of ballot measures (of which the first two are by far the most common):

Legislative Referrals-Typically these are constitutional modifications but they can be statutory as well (See 2007’s Measure 49, which modified the state’s land use laws as an example).  Depending on the specific measure, they require either a simple majority or, in some cases, a 3/5 majority to get on the ballot.

Citizen Statutory Initiatives-Change or create state law.  They require 82,679 signatures.

Citizen Constitutional Initiatives-Change the Oregon Constitution.  They require 110,358 signatures.

Citizen Referrals-Refer a recently passed law, by the legislature, to the people for a vote, most recently seen in the failed attempts to get votes on the state’s new domestic partnership (civil unions) and GLBT civil rights laws.  They require 55,179 signatures, which must be turned in within 90 days after the law is signed by the Governor.

Ballot Measures are listed by these types and then by their Initiative Petition (IP) number since ballot measure numbers will not be assigned until signature verification is completed on August 3, 2008.  Measure numbers are sequential and the first measure this year will be Measure 54.  This summary does not include any local ballot measures.

Key:

Measure Type:

C-Constitutional.

S-Statutory.

Will it make the ballot:

Qualified-The imitative is already qualified.

Likely to Qualify-The imitative is likely (85%+) to qualify.

Fate Uncertain-50-50 on whether this initiative will qualify.

Unlikely to Qualify-Less than a 50% chance of qualification.

Race Ratings:

Tossup-Less than 3% margin projected.

Lean-3 to 10% margin.

Likely-11 to 20% margin.

Safe-Greater than 20% margin.

Note: Ratings assume the measure will qualify.

Progress-O-Meter:

How progressive is this initiative, on a 1-10 scale, with 1 being very much not progressive and 10 highly progressive.

Legislative Referrals (Already all qualified):

405-C

Summary: This corrects a bizarre flaw in the state constitution that prohibits citizens under 21 from voting in school board elections (a provision which is, of course, not in effect but should be removed anyways).

Known Opposition: None.

Progress-O-Meter: N/A, technical measure.

Outlook: Safe Yes.

406-C

Summary: Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.

Known Opposition: None.

Progress-O-Meter: N/A, technical measure.

Outlook: Safe Yes.

407-C

Summary: Repeals the Double Majority law requiring that 50% of registered voters cast ballots in an election for a bond measure to pass.

Known Opposition: Taxpayer Association of Oregon (Far Right), Bill Sizemore (Sponsor of all things extremely libertarian).

Progress-O-Meter: 10, gets rid of a really stupid law.

Outlook: Likely Yes, the legislature’s approval should allow this one to win pretty easily.

408-S

Summary: Proposes an alternative to Kevin Mannix’s (R-Of Course) property crime sentence minimum initiative.  Focuses state policy on treatment rather than prison for low level drug and property crimes.

Known Opposition: Kevin Mannix and his crew.

Progress-O-Meter: 7, its not a great law but its a damn sight better than Mannix’s proposal.

Outlook: Leans to Likely Yes, my guess is that with both on the ballot, Mannix’s extreme measure will fail when compared to this one.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

3-S

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Qualification Status: Qualified.

Summary: This is at least the third time, and I think the fourth, that Sizemore and his gang have proposed this measure, which makes federal income taxes fully deductible on state returns.  This measure largely benefits high wage earners and would blow a huge hole in the state’s budget.

Known Opposition: A leading coalition of progressive groups will once again mobilize against this one.

Progress-O-Meter: 1, really really bad.

Outlook: Likely No, the good news is that although Sizemore can qualify measures, he can’t pass them.  This proposal has failed by increasingly wider margins every time it’s been proposed.

19-S

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore.

Qualification Status: Qualified.

Summary: This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.

Known Opposition: I would think a lot of progressive groups will mobilize against this one.

Progress-O-Meter: 2, progressives don’t like race-baiting measures like this one.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, I think the racist anti-immigrant folks will discover that they have limited political power after this one fails.  However, it is impossible to know exactly how this will turn out because this is the first immigration measure to make the ballot here.

20-S

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Qualification Status: Likely to Qualify

Summary: This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.

Known Opposition: The Oregon Education Association will doubtless go all out against this measure.

Progress-O-Meter: 2, merit pay simply doesn’t work.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, although the first time tried here, given the more conservative states that have seen this measure fail I doubt this has much of a chance here.

21-S

Chief Sponsor; Bill Sizemore

Qualification Status: Qualified

Summary: This measure would allow minor building changes without a permit.

Known Opposition: None but anything Sizemore proposes won’t stay without opposition for long.

Progress-O-Meter: 5, I honestly don’t know what Sizemore is up to here but I bet it’s no good.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, I don’t get this one but Sizemore’s name on the measure should be good enough to kill it.

25-S

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Qualification Status: Qualified

Summary: Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.

Known Opposition: The progressive movement in this state will mobilize to kill this one.

Progress-O-Meter: 1, strikes right at the heart of the progressive movement.

Outlook: Likely No, Sizemore=without power, Public Employee Unions=Powerful, enough said.

40-S

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix

Qualification Status: Qualified

Summary: This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.

Known Opposition: Most of the Legislature for one (See Referral #408) as well as most of the moderate and progressive groups in the state.

Progress-O-Meter: 1, oh Kevin, your ideas suck so much.

Outlook: Likely No, with the competing measure by the legislature, this one appears headed for defeat.

41-C

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix.

Qualification Status: Likely to Qualify

Summary: Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.

Known Opposition: The current groups that receive lottery funds, schools and parks, will likely oppose this.

Progress-O-Meter: 4, not horrible but not great either.

Outlook: Tossup, IMHO a bad idea but measures like this have fared pretty well in the past.

51-S

Chief Sponsor: R. Russell Walker (Libertarian Activist)

Qualification Status: Fate Uncertain

Summary: Limits contingency fee awards in lawsuits.  Your classic “lawsuit reform” measure.

Known Opposition: The Oregon Trial Lawyer’s Association has already come hard strongly against this measure not surprisingly.

Progress-O-Meter: 2, not as bad as the similar measure in 2004, but still quite bad.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, if a similar measure couldn’t pass in 2004, I doubt this one will now.

53-S

Chief Sponsor: R. Russell Walker

Qualification Status: Fate Uncertain

Summary: Establishes penalties for “frivolous lawsuits.”

Known Opposition: As with the last one, expect the Oregon Trial Lawyers Association to go full out against it.

Progress-O-Meter: 1, closing the courthouse door is not a progressive value.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, assuming either or both of these qualify, they will likely pass or fail together.

109-S

Chief Sponsor: Former SOS Phil Keisling (D)

Qualification Status: Fate Uncertain

Summary: Creates a Top-Two Open Primary in which all parties run their candidates on the same ballot and the top two, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

Known Opposition: Both the Oregon D’s and R’s oppose this strongly.

Progress-O-Meter: I’m not even going to try to rate this one because I know I will get slammed if I do but I personally oppose it.

Outlook: Leans No, if this qualifies, the state parties will spend a lot of $ to kill it, so I’ll list it as leans no for now.

Let me know what you think.