Tag: Polls

Three new polls have come out over the past few days of the Virginia gubernatorial race. Let’s run through all three, starting with the newest.

Taylor Nelson Sofres for the Washington Post (9/14-17, likely voters, 8/11-14 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 47 (39)

Bob McDonnell (R): 51 (54)

Undecided: 2 (7)

(MoE: ±3.1%)

WaPo has more on where these new Deeds voters are coming from:

Following news coverage of the thesis, the poll offers fresh evidence the tactic might be working: The percentage of likely voters who see McDonnell as “too conservative” has jumped 10 points since the August poll and corresponds with a double-digit increase in the number seeing Deeds as “just about right” ideologically. The percentage of independent female voters seeing McDonnell as too conservative is now significantly higher than it had been.

In August, independent women favored McDonnell 59 to 31 percent; now they split 50 percent for Deeds to 47 percent for McDonnell. […]

In Northern Virginia, where statewide Democrats have been successful but Deeds was slow to win support, he now leads McDonnell, 57 to 40 percent, among likely voters. In the innermost Washington suburbs, Deeds leads 63 to 34 percent. A month ago, the two men were running about even in Northern Virginia.

Nearly half of likely voters, 46 percent, say they have heard a “great deal” or a “good amount” about the thesis, and among those who say it will affect their vote, the influence is broadly negative. Most, though, see the thesis as not having an impact, and very few — less than 1 percent — call the thesis the most important issue in the campaign.

However, GOP voters are still more pumped up about voting — 36% of McDonnell supporters are “very enthusiastic” about voting for their candidate, while only 22% of Deeds supporters feel the same way. That’s a higher score for both candidates than they received in last month’s poll, but McDonnell had the bigger gain.

Less optimistic is the latest Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos (9/14-16, likely voters, 8/3-5 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 43 (43)

Bob McDonnell (R): 50 (51)

Undecided: 7 (6)

(MoE: ±4%)

The needle barely budged here despite McDonnell’s thesis blow-up. (Indeed, women prefer Deeds by only a three-point margin, which is barely changed from Deeds’ one-point lead in August.) Others are reading the needle a little differently.

Rasmussen, which hasn’t been earning too many accolades in the comments section lately, came in on Thursday with numbers that err on the side of TNS (9/16, likely voters, 8/10 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 46 (41)

Bob McDonnell (R): 48 (49)

Undecided: 5 (7)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rasmussen (9/15, likely voters):

Elaine Marshall (D): 38

Richard Burr (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 11

Kenneth Lewis (D): 32

Richard Burr (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 14

Bob Etheridge (D): 34

Richard Burr (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 15

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Here’s another variation on the same theme we’ve been seeing out of North Carolina: Burr is still under 50, and his potential Democratic competitors are all starting in a similar position. PPP recently had Burr in the low 40s, and leading by similar margins. The major distinction is that PPP found that Etheridge started in the strongest position (41-34), compared to Marshall shining the brightest from the Dem field according to Rasmussen.

RaceTracker Wiki: NC-Sen

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/14-16, likely voters):

Elizabeth Mitchell (D): 34

Les Otten (R): 28

Undecided: 38

Elizabeth Mitchell (D): 35

Peter Mills (R): 15

Undecided: 50

Elizabeth Mitchell (D): 35

Matt Jacobson (R): 14

Undecided: 51

Michael Michaud (D): 33

Les Otten (R): 29

Undecided: 38

Michael Michaud (D): 34

Peter Mills (R): 15

Undecided: 51

Michael Michaud (D): 34

Matt Jacobson (R): 14

Undecided: 52

Steve Rowe (D): 30

Les Otten (R): 31

Undecided: 39

Steve Rowe (D): 31

Peter Mills (R): 15

Undecided: 54

Steve Rowe (D): 31

Matt Jacobson (R): 14

Undecided: 55

(MoE: ±4%)

Research 2000 polled Maine to get a sense of where the anti-gay marriage initiative on the statewide ballot in November stands. The poll finds the initiative passing (where “yes” = a vote against gay marriage), but by a narrow 48-46 margin. As one might expect, the younger you are, the likelier you are to support gay marriage (18-29s are 43 yes, 52 no, while 60+ are 55 yes, 38 no), but there’s also a big disparity between the two congressional districts in the state (the more cosmopolitan 1st is 45 yes, 50 no, while the backwoodsy 2nd is 51 yes, 42 no).

As a bonus, they also threw in the first look anyone has taken at the Maine governor’s race for 2010, a race that has been particularly slow to take shape and where nobody terribly well-known is running. The results aren’t what you would call conclusive, with ‘undecided’ winning every race, but show the Dems with a decent margin in every permutation, except for a Steve Rowe/Les Otten matchup.

The players here are:

• Elizabeth “Libby” Mitchell: Democratic state Senate president, former state House speaker, and loser of the 1984 U.S. Senate election to William Cohen (she got into the race in August, so quietly that we at SSP didn’t even notice; the 69-year-old Mitchell would be Maine’s first female governor)

• Mike Michaud, Democratic Representative in ME-02 (has been rumored to be interested, but has taken no steps to run)

• Steve Rowe, former two-term Democratic Attorney General and former state House speaker (is officially in the race)

• Les Otten, Republican former co-owner of Boston Red Sox and of American Ski Company (has formed exploratory committee)

• Peter Mills, Republican state Senator and loser of the 2006 GOP gubernatorial primary (is running)

• Matt Jacobson, Republican CEO of Maine & CO., a nonprofit that seeks to attract business to Maine and former president of St. Lawrence & Atlantic Railroad (is running)

RaceTracker Wiki: ME-Gov

Quinnipiac (9/10-14, registered voters, 7/16-20 in parens):

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 39 (39)

Rob Simmons (R): 44 (48)

Undecided: 15 (10)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 40 (42)

Sam Caligiuri (R): 36 (40)

Undecided: 20 (15)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 40 (42)

Tom Foley (R): 38 (42)

Undecided: 18 (14)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 42 (43)

Peter Schiff (R): 36 (38)

Undecided: 19 (16)

(MoE: ±3.2%)

It’s been Connecticut overload this week, as Quinnipiac brings us our third recent poll gauging Chris Dodd’s electoral health. Rasmussen had Simmons up by 10 over Dodd, while R2K only had Dodd trailing by four. The Q&Q Polling Factory weighs in much closer to R2K, and finds some evidence of recovery for Dodd. (Not tested in any of these polls was newcomer Linda McMahon.) His favorability rating is 40-48, which is admittedly bad, but that number is a far cry from the 30-58 rating that Dodd was given back in April, and a slight improvement from the 40-50 rating he earned in July.

When asked whether or not they believe Dodd is “honest and trustworthy”, voters give the incumbent a 40-51 rating. Again, not good, but a marked improvement over his 35-55 score on this question in July. Quinnipiac also finds signs of improvement for Dodd among the Democratic base — in a primary match-up against Merrick Alpert (bio: some dude), Dodd leads by 56-13, up from 53-18 in July and 44-24 back in May.

Quinnipiac finds Simmons cruising in the GOP primary (at 43%, vs. single digits for everyone else), but that’s not stopping Paulist economist Peter Schiff from throwing his hat into the ring. Schiff, who formally entered the race today via an appearance on MSBNC’s Morning Joe, will at least be well-funded: he already has a cool million bucks in the bank.

RaceTracker Wiki: CT-Sen

Suffolk (9/8-10, registered voters):

Martha Coakley (D): 47

Michael Capuano (D): 9

Stephen Lynch (D): 6

Alan Khazei (D): 3

Steve Pagliuca (D): 0

Martha Coakley (D): 54

Scott Brown (R): 24

Michael Capuano (D): 36

Scott Brown (R): 28

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Suffolk finds what Rasmussen found last week — Martha Coakley, the only statewide official and only woman in the hunt for the special election to fill the open Senate seat, has a big lead on all her primary opponents. There are a few method problems here: first, while the poll was in mid-stream, Suffolk pulled out Rep. Stephen Lynch and added Steve Pagliuca (which didn’t stop Pagliuca from managing to get absolutely no votes). Also, it’s unclear from their writeup who they were asking the Democratic primary question to: only registered Democrats, or unenrolled voters as well (who, in Massachusetts, can opt to pick a Democratic ballot). Clearly those problems didn’t seem to have too much effect on the poll’s finding of a huge lead for Coakley, though.

Coakley has a 53/16 favorable; Michael Capuano, by contrast, isn’t well-known and barely in positive territory at 16/14 (which would explain why he polls worse in the general against Republican Scott Brown than does Coakley). Even with Coakley’s seeming popularity, the Democrats in the sample still say they would have voted for ex-Rep. Joe Kennedy by a wide margin if he’d gotten into the race, 59-25. The sample also approves of changing the law to accommodate a temporary appointment Senator, 55-41.

A few other Massachusetts items of note: a vote is expected today in the state House on the issue of changing the law to allow a temporary appointment, and debate is currently underway. The projected timeline, accounting for anticipated Republican procedural stalling tactics, is final passage on Sep. 24.

Stephen Pagliuca is making his entry into the Democratic primary official today. The co-owner of the Boston Celtics and also managing director at Bain Capital, who’s worth $400 million, will obviously be able to self-fund. He’ll need to find a way to improve on his 0% somehow, though… although his support for fellow Bain brain Mitt Romney in 1994 over Ted Kennedy and of William Weld over John Kerry in 1996 may make it difficult to sell the state’s Democratic base on believing his conversion (he became a Democrat in 1998).

Finally, Michael Capuano isn’t wasting any time dipping into his big stash of House dollars and hitting the airwaves, releasing his first TV ad. He needs to act early to introduce himself to most of the state’s voters and stake out the field’s left flank, while well-known but cash-poor Coakley is still scrambling to put together a warchest. Capuano hasn’t even formally announced his candidacy, which he’ll do tomorrow.

RaceTracker Wiki: MA-Sen

• CO-Sen: Former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff officially kicked off his primary challenge to Michael Bennet yesterday, with appearances in Pueblo, Colorado Springs, and Denver. Romanoff, however, wasted no time in demonstrating that he won’t be running to Bennet’s left, saying that he’s opposed to the card-check portion of EFCA. If he isn’t going to run to Bennet’s left, that leads to the question of: what other kind of an angle can he work, other than just “it’s my turn?”

• IL-Sen: Here’s an interesting development in the Illinois Senate race: EMILY’s List has weighed in, endorsing (surprise) Cheryle Jackson. EMILY’s List isn’t always a magic bullet in these type situations (see Tinker, Nikki), but it does expose Jackson to a nationwide base of donors. Politico does observe something odd, though: EMILY’s List hasn’t endorsed a female Senate candidate who seems to have at least somewhat better odds of making it out of her primary… Jennifer Brunner.

• NY-Sen-B (pdf): Some leftovers from yesterday’s Marist poll of NY-Gov: Kirsten Gillibrand is still having some growing pains, with an approval of 26% excellent or good, 38% fair, and 9% poor (with 27% not sure) and losing a head-to-head against ex-Gov. George Pataki, 48-44 (Pataki has been completely silent on the issue, but you’ve gotta wonder if the consistent numbers are getting him more interested). For yucks and giggles, they also matched Gillibrand up against Eliot Spitzer in a Dem primary, which she won 57-29. (Spitzer also loses a primary to David Paterson 60-31, and receives a general “no” on the issue of running again, 27/69.)

• IL-Gov: State GOP chair Andy McKenna, who briefly provoked a Mark Kirk temper tantrum when he said he’d run in the Illinois senate primary, has decided he still really wants to run for office, and instead has headed over to the Governor’s race, where there was no top-tier candidate or even clear frontrunner. This seemed to spook one of the candidates, suburban state Sen. Matt Murphy, who bailed out of the race and signed on as McKenna’s running mate. While McKenna has the fundraising connections and can self-fund as well, McKenna has never won a race (he finished 4th in the GOP Senate primary in 2004, meaning he lost not only to Jack Ryan but also Jim Oberweis), and he’ll still have to face DuPage County Board Chair Bob Schillerstrom (who has at least 900,000 constituents) as well as a gaggle of other state Senators. (H/t GOPVOTER.)

• MI-Gov: SoS Terri Lynn Land has signed onto Oakland Co. Sheriff Michael Bouchard’s ticket as his running mate. Land, you’ll recall, was widely expected to run for Governor but surprised everyone by endorsing Bouchard instead. (There was a brief rumor that she’d run in MI-03 after a Vern Ehlers retirement, but that doesn’t seem to be happening.)

• NH-Gov: Rasmussen throws in gubernatorial numbers as part of its sample from Sep. 14 that found Kelly Ayotte up on Paul Hodes by 8 in the Senate race. The results help cast a little more doubt on the composition of that particular sample, as the state’s widely popular Democratic Governor, John Lynch, leads former Senator John Sununu (who I’ve never seen mentioned in connection with that race) by only 48-43. Lynch beats the only announced candidate, businessman Jack Kimball, 52-31, and vaguely interested state Senator Chuck Morse 51-29.

• NJ-Gov: PPP tried out some alternate scenarios in New Jersey involving replacement Democrats for Jon Corzine (although Corzine hasn’t made any moves to get out, and it’s unclear why he would at this point, with his numbers improving somewhat). The bottom line is, it wouldn’t help anyway; Rep. Frank Pallone loses big-time to Chris Christie 43-23 (with Chris Daggett at 15). Newark mayor Corey Booker doesn’t fare much better, even though he has very high approval ratings: he loses 41-33-13.

• OR-Gov: We’ll definitely have a contested primary on the Democratic side, despite the entry of heavyweight ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber. Former SoS Bill Bradbury is staying in the race, preparing to announce today, and yesterday releasing a video endorsement from his most prominent backer, former Gov. Barbara Roberts, who preceded Kitzhaber in office. Meanwhile, Kitzhaber released a literal shitload of endorsements yesterday, with many of the state’s key Democrats (AG John Kroger, Treasurer Ben Westlund, Superintendent of Education Susan Castillo, Multnomah County Chair Ted Wheeler, ex-Portland mayor Vera Katz, ex-Rep. Darlene Hooley) and some names who’d been bandied about as possible candidates (state Sen. Mark Hass, Portland city counilor Randy Leonard) on board — not a lot of oxygen left for Bradbury, or for Rep. Peter DeFazio, if he still wants to get in.

• PA-Gov: Scranton mayor Chris Doherty is almost certain to run for the Democratic nod for Governor, insiders are saying. He’s staffing up (including some heavy hitters, including media pro Tad Devine) and polling.

• TX-Gov: Rasmussen’s new poll of the Texas governor primary on the Republican side has a big surprise: it’s the first poll in ages (since May) to give a lead to Kay Bailey Hutchison. KBH leads incumbent Rick Perry 40-38, with somebody named Debra Medina, who’s from the Ron Paul wing of the party, pulling in 3% of the vote… apparently pulling in enough of Perry’s base of teabag/secession nuts to flip the race to KBH. Rasmussen’s May poll had Perry up 42-38.

• CA-42: Republican Rep. Gary Miller has drawn a wealthy primary challenger, Lee McGroarty, an executive with an investment firm. Ethical clouds related to real estate deals have followed Miller, but he’s probably more vulnerable to an anti-insider primary challenge than a Democrat in this R+10 Orange County district.

• NY-23: After Sam Brownback and Pat Roberts dropped their barely-explicable holds on the confirmation of Rep. John McHugh for Secretary of the Army, the New York Republican was confirmed last night. The three candidates — Democrat Bill Owens, Republican Dede Scozzafava, and Conservative Doug Hoffman — now are waiting to see when the special election is scheduled. State law requires David Paterson to schedule the election between 30 and 40 days from his announcement of the date, so in order to schedule the election on the regular election day of Nov. 3 (like everyone expects will happen), he’ll need to delay the announcement for at least another week.

• Campaign Finance: Last month, a federal judge ruled that Connecticut’s relatively new campaign matching fund system violated the First Amendment, saying it impermissibly put unfair burdens on “hopeless” minor party candidates that it did not also place on equally hopeless major party candidates running in uncompetitive districts. (The decision was in part based on the Supreme Court case that struck down the federal Millionaire’s Amendment last year.) AG Dick Blumenthal is appealing to the Second Circuit. Meanwhile, some folks in Arizona are concerned that this ruling might implicate their own public financing system. (D)

Quinnipiac (9/8-10, likely voters, 6/26-7/1 in parentheses):

Lee Fisher (D): 42 (37)

Rob Portman (R): 31 (33)

Lee Fisher (D): 41 (36)

Tom Ganley (R): 29 (30)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 39 (35)

Rob Portman (R): 34 (34)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 39 (35)

Tom Ganley (R): 31 (31)

(MoE: ±3%)

Lee Fisher (D): 26 (24)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 17 (21)

(MoE: ±4.8%)

Rob Portman (R): 27 (33)

Tom Ganley (R): 9 (10)

(MoE: ±5%)

Here’s the second half of Quinnipiac’s poll of Ohio (they did the Governor’s race yesterday). Despite the rough patch a lot of Democrats running for the Senate have run into in the last month or two (see today’s spate of Rasmussen polls), the Democrats seem to be holding their ground in the open seat Senate race in Ohio, in fact gaining a bit from the so-so numbers they put up in July. This sample also sees Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher putting a little distance between him and his Democratic primary challenger, SoS Jennifer Brunner.

We’re still a long way from decisively knowing anything here, though, as seen by the large undecideds in each category (especially the primaries). Fisher is the best known of the four, and even he has only a 33/13 favorable (with 55% “haven’t heard enough”). By contrast, ex-Rep. Rob Portman, who seems well-known only in the Cincinnati area despite time on the national stage (as Bush’s trade rep and then budget director), is 72% unknown.

RaceTracker Wiki: OH-Sen

Rasmussen (9/15, likely voters):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 36

Jane Norton (R): 45

Some other: 7

Not sure: 12

Andrew Romanoff (D): 34

Jane Norton (R): 42

Some other: 8

Not sure: 15

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rasmussen (9/14, likely voters):

Paul Hodes (D): 38

Kelly Ayotte (R): 46

Some other: 5

Not sure: 12

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rasmussen (9/14, likely voters):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 40

Sue Lowden (R): 50

Some other: 4

Not sure: 5

Harry Reid (D-inc): 43

Danny Tarkanian (R): 50

Some other: 4

Not sure: 3

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rasmussen offers up a bunch of polls of various Senate races, and as we’ve pretty much come to expect from Rasmussen, it’s bad news for Democrats all around. They take their first looks at Harry Reid’s re-election bid in Nevada and the open seat in New Hampshire. While they looked at Colorado last week (and found Michael Bennet losing even to lesser opposition there), this is also their first look at the Colorado race since it was upended by the entry of Republican former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton and Democratic former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff.

Recent polling from other pollsters in each of these races has shown Democrats trailing narrowly (R2K in New Hampshire, and R2K in Nevada) or barely holding on (PPP in Colorado), so Rasmussen isn’t way out in right field here. However, the GOP spreads seem wider than other pollsters; they may be using a more aggressive likely voter screen than their rivals.

• DE-Sen: Delaware AG Beau Biden will be returning from his service in Iraq later this month, meaning it’s time for him to decide whether or not he runs for his dad’s former Senate seat. One journo (National Journal’s Erin McPike) already tweets that he’s “definitely in,” which could serve to scare off the already seemingly gun-shy Rep. Mike Castle.

• MA-Sen: There are reports that there are enough votes in both chambers of the state legislature to give Gov. Deval Patrick the power to appoint a short-term replacement Senator. Republicans can use procedural tactics to stall it for a week, but would be out of options after that, meaning a new Senator could be in place by late next week.

• MO-Sen, MO-07: Former state Treasurer and gubernatorial candidate Sarah Steelman’s 2010 cycle is ending with a whimper, not a bang: after starting out looking like a strong primary challenger to Rep. Roy Blunt in the Senate race, she gradually faded from view, then re-emerged to explore a race for Blunt’s old seat in the 7th. Now she’s confirming that she won’t run for anything, at least not in 2010.

• NJ-Sen (pdf): PPP has some extra info from their sample from their gubernatorial poll. As usual, New Jerseyites don’t like anyone: not Barack Obama (45/48 approval), Robert Menendez (27/40), or Frank Lautenberg (38/44). As a bonus, they also find that even in well-educated, affluent New Jersey, there’s still a lot of birtherism (64-21, with 16% unsure) and even a new category: people who think Barack Obama is the anti-Christ. 8% are… let’s just call them anti-Christers… with another 13% not sure.

• MD-Gov: Maryland Republicans have found, well, somebody to run for Governor: businessman Lawrence Hogan, Jr. Hogan says he’ll run but he’ll get out of the race in case his friend ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich shows up, although that’s not looking likely. Hogan ran unsuccessfully against Steny Hoyer in 1992. A better-known figure, State Delegate and radio talk show host Patrick McDonough, also expressed his interest in the race in August, although he too would stand down for Ehrlich.

• MN-Gov: As expected, state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher officially announced that she’s running for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. She joins (taking in a really deep breath here first): Ramsey Co. Attorney Susan Gaertner, former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton, state Senators John Marty and Tom Bakk, state Reps. Tom Rukavina and Paul Thissen, and former legislators Matt Entenza and Steve Kelley, with Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak and St. Paul mayor Chris Coleman also expected to enter the field soon. Also looming on the horizon, according to the article: a possible run by Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley, who broke into double-digits in last year’s Senate race.

• NY-Gov (pdf): Yet another poll of the New York Governor’s race, this time from Marist. As always, Paterson is in disastrous condition, with an approval rating of 20/76. Paterson loses the Dem primary to Andrew Cuomo 70-23, and, if Cuomo happens to die in a bizarre gardening accident before the primary, Paterson loses to Rudy Giuliani 60-34 (although he still manages to tie Rick Lazio, 43-43). Cuomo defeats Giuliani 53-43 and Lazio 71-21.

• PA-Gov: This might pique Joe Hoeffel’s interest. The ex-Rep. and MontCo Commissioner has been considering the gubernatorial race (where there isn’t much of a progressive option in the Dem primary), and now he won a straw poll of 1,000 progressive activists done by Keystone Progress, picking up 35%. Auditor Jack Wagner was at 22, with Allegheny County Exec Dan Onorato at 14, Scranton mayor Chris Doherty at 11, and businessman Tom Knox at 7. Of course, the caveats about generalizing this sample to the larger population are obvious here; the actual Democratic electorate contains a lot of pro-life Catholic voters and ex-GOP suburban moderates.

• SC-Gov: Here’s some very good news out of the Palmetto State: Superintendent of Education Jim Rex is officially in the Governor’s race. Rex had previously expressed his interest and his candidacy started looking likely when he said last week that he wouldn’t run again for his current job. Rex is the only Dem holding statewide office in South Carolina, so despite the state’s dark-red hue may be able to get some traction here thanks to the GOP’s descent into chaos over the Mark Sanford affair (and their reluctance to get behind his Lt. Gov, Andre Bauer). Rex’s new website is here.

• VA-Gov: Creigh Deeds has to be pleased with the new poll from Clarus, an independent pollster whose first poll of the race finds a 42-37 lead for Bob McDonnell, a narrower gap than most pollsters are seeing. They also find 48/43 approvals for Obama, 47/23 for Jim Webb, and 61/21 for Mark Warner. Meanwhile, new fundraising numbers for the race are available. Deeds raised more than McDonnell for the July/August period, $3.5 million to McDonnell’s $3 million. McDonnell still has more cash on hand, $5.8 million to Deeds’ $4.3 million. Also an advantage for McDonnell: the RNC is pledging to spend up to $7 million on behalf of McDonnell (although that figure includes $2.4 million they’ve already spent).

• KY-06: Republicans seem to have a candidate ready to go up against Rep. Ben Chandler in the 6th, who hasn’t faced much in the way of opposition in this GOP-leaning district. Lexington attorney (and former Jim Talent aide)Andy Barr has formed an exploratory committee.

• NJ-07: Woodbridge mayor (and former state Treasurer) John McCormac has turned down the DCCC’s overtures to run against freshman GOP Rep. Leonard Lance in the 7th. (Woodbridge mayor may not sound like much, but it’s one of the largest municipalities in New Jersey and was Jim McGreevey’s launching pad to Governor.)

• NM-02: The race in the 2nd may turn into a clash of self-funding rich oilmen, as GOP ex-Rep. Steve Pearce says he may dip into his own cash to augment his bid to reclaim his seat from Democratic Rep. Harry Teague (who Roll Call says is the 10th richest member of Congress, and put more than a million of his own money into his 2008 bid).

• OR-04: Here’s one campaign that’s already in crash & burn mode: Springfield mayor Sid Leiken’s bid against Rep. Peter DeFazio. Remember Leiken’s tearful apology over the undocumented $2,000 that went to his mother’s real estate company, ostensibly to paying for polling? Now the state elections board is opening an investigation to see if any poll ever actually got taken, after widespread skepticism by polling experts about the poll’s conclusions (most notably that they got 200 respondents out of 268 calls).

• PA-06: The arrival of physician Manan Trivedi to the Dem field in the 6th, where Doug Pike seemed to have everything nailed down, has scrambled things a bit. Trivedi has already announced the endorsement of 2008 candidate Bob Roggio, and a more prominent insider, Berks County Recorder of Deeds Frederick Sheeler, switched to neutral from a Pike endorsement.

• VA-05: It looks like the Republicans have landed their first “real” candidate to go against Rep. Tom Perriello in the 5th: Albemarle County Commissioner Kenneth Boyd. Boyd is the only Republican on the board that runs the county that surrounds Charlottesville, home of UVA and the district’s liberal anchor; this may help Boyd eat a little into Perriello’s Charlottesville base, but he’s unknown in the rest of the district and may not make it out of the primary against state Sen. Rob Hurt, if Hurt gets off the fence and runs.

• Mayors: Amidst all the hullabaloo in New York City last night, there was also a big mayoral contest in Buffalo. Incumbent Dem Byron Brown has essentially been re-elected, beating Michael Kearns 63-37 in the Democratic primary. There is no Republican challenger on the November ballot and Brown controls the minor party lines.

• Votes: There seems to be absolutely no pattern behind who did and didn’t vote to reprimand Joe Wilson in the House. Although (sadly) the vote was mostly along party lines, 12 Dems and 7 GOPers broke ranks. Among Dems, the “no” votes were a mix of Blue Dogs and some of the most outspoken liberals: Arcuri, Delahunt, Giffords, Hinchey, Hodes, Kucinich, Maffei, Massa, McDermott, Gwen Moore, Gene Taylor, and Teague. Among the GOP, it was a few moderates and some of the more mavericky hard-liners: Cao, Emerson, Flake, Walter Jones, Petri, Rohrabacher, and maybe most notably, Bob Inglis, already facing the wrath of the teabagging wing of the party. Five Dems also voted “present,” the best you can do when you can’t vote “meh:” Engel, Foster, Frank, Shea-Porter, and Skelton.

Quinnipiac (9/8-10, likely voters, 6/26-7/1 in parentheses):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 46 (43)

John Kasich (R): 36 (38)

(MoE: ±3%)

There’s some definite improvement in the Ohio Governor’s race, where a number of summertime polls showed incumbent Dem Ted Strickland leading John Kasich within the margin error. Strickland’s putting a little more distance between himself and the ex-Rep., now holding a 10-point edge.

Strickland’s hardly out of the woods, polling below 50%. And although his overall job approval is positive at 48/42, he’s in deep negative territory on his handling of the state budget and the economy (not that anyone could do much with that, given the demolished manufacturing sector at his state’s core). Ohioans are a little happier with their Senators: George Voinovich is at 52/33 and Sherrod Brown is at 48/33.

RaceTracker Wiki: OH-Gov