This is part one of my three part series of diaries that I will be publishing this weekend handicapping the major 2010 races in the state of Michigan.
Today I will be publishing my U.S. House outlook, tomorrow the State Senate, and Sunday the State House of Representatives.
House District 1: Upper Peninsula and Northern Lower Peninsula. On Monday, Republicans announced that they plan to challenge Bart Stupak again in 2010. Apparently Pete Sessions has not learned the lesson that Tom Cole learned in 2008. For those not familiar with the story, State Rep. Tom Casperson was recruited to run against Stupak by Tom Cole, and national Republicans hyped Casperson as a top tier challenger and golden opportunity for Republicans to knock off the popular moderate Democrat. No such thing happened, and Casperson was pounded by Stupak 65-33.
Now, maybe Sessions thinks that Stupak will retire. I’ll admit, it’s possible. But that still leaves them with the problem of recruiting a Republican with any significant name recognition. Casperson may run again, or he may run for the State Senate. Either way, if he couldn’t break 35% against Stupak, I doubt he could win an open seat. Another Republican possibility is State Rep. Kevin Elsenheimer who will be term limited in 2010, but Elsenheimer is from the lower peninsula, not the U.P. I doubt that any Republican could win this if they aren’t from the U.P., and even a downstate Democrat would have a hard time if the Republican is from the U.P. Elsenheimer is the only Republican state legislator who lives in the 1st District, so he may start out as a front runner if he runs.
As for Democrat Candidates if there’s an open seat, the favorite should be term limited State Senator and Minority Leader Mike Prusi, but State Reps. Mike Lindberg, Mike Lahti, and Gary McDowell would all be formidable opponents to any Republican.
Rating: Safe Democrat, (Leans Democrat if Stupak Retires).
District 2: Lake Michigan Shoreline, Muskegon, Ottawa County. The 2nd District is the most Repulbican in the state of Michigan. It is historically conservative, very Evangelical, and has a high Dutch population. Congressman Pete Hoekstra has already announced that he is going to retire in 2010, probably to run for Governor.
Encouraged by Barack Obama’s good showing in this district, some might be inclined to view this as a potential Democratic pickup. I think that the chances of a Democrat winning this district is slim to none. Republican state legislators are already lining up to succeed Hoekstra, and I doubt any notable Democrat would risk there political career to run against any one of them.
State Senator Wayne Kuipers (R) and State Rep. Bill Huizenga (R) are both running already. Both are from Ottawa county, the conservative base of the District. State Senator Gerald VanWoerkom, a Republican from Muskegon, may run as well. VanWoerkom is far more moderate, and if Kuipers and Huizenga split the conservative, Ottawa County vote, VanWoerkom could sneak up and win the Republican primary.
Democrat State Reps. Mary Valentine and Doug Bennett are the only Democrat elected officials in the district, but I doubt either would take on such a suicide mission. Former State Rep. Julie Dennis may run, but I do not think she would be a very legitimate candidate.
Rating: Likely Republican
District 3: Kent County (Grand Rapids). The third District is also very republican, but not as conservative as the second District. Vern Ehlers is safe if he runs for re election. If he retires, Republicans would have a clear advantage, but the right Democrat could win this district.
If Ehlers retires, State Senators Jud Gilbert or Mike Hardiman would be likely replacements. Former State Representative Michael Sak, a Democrat, would make a good candidate. He is moderate, and from Grand Rapids city, but was recently criticized for alledgedly appearing drunk at a Governors assosciation meeting. State Reps. Robert Dean or Wayne Schmidt could also run.
Rating: Safe Republican (Leans Republic an in Ehlers Retires)
District 4: Central lower Peninsula, Midland. Rep. Dave Camp will likely run for re-election in 2010, and Democrats will likely not give him a vigorous challenge, even though the 4th is a swing district that Barack Obama won. Freshman State Rep. Mike Huckleberry may challenge Camp, he already did so in 2006, but he is unlikely to do any better than he did then. And I doubt he would want to give up his new seat, anyway.
Rating: Safe Republican
District 5: Flint, Saginaw, Bay City. If Dale Kildee does not retire in 2010, expect a primary challenge from State Senator John Gleason. Gleason considered challenging Kildee in 2008, but opted to stay in the Senate. He is term limited in 2010. Republicans will not seriously contest this seat, no matter who wins the Democratic Primary.
Rating: Safe Democrat
District 6: South-West MI, Kalamzoo. Moderate Republican Fred Upton may or may not run for re-election in 2010. If he does, he is probably safe. If not, the 6th District becomes a pure tossup. Obama got 54% in this District, but Democrats have no significant bench of candidates here.
Robert Jones is the only elected Democratic legislator in the district, but he and his predeccessor, Alexander Lipsey, are both African-American. I doubt an African American could win this district (it has a lot of conservative voters in Berrien and Van Buren Counties). However, former Kalamazoo mayor and current Vice-Mayor Hannah McKinney would make a decent candidate.
Republicans Tonya Schuitimaker, John Proos, and Ron Jelinek could all run to succeed Upton if he retired.
Rating: Safe Republican (Tossup if Upton retires)
District 7: South MI, Battle Creek, Jackson. Freshman Mark Schauer will likely face a difficult re-election in 2010. He only beat Rep. Tim Walberg 49-46 in 2008, certainly a smaller margin than I expected.
Possible Republican candidates include former Rep. Mike Nofs, Sen. Cameron Brown, and Rep. Rick Jones. Walberg may run agian, but he is unlikely to beat Schauer in a rematch.
Obama won this district, and the Republicans in this district tend to vote for Conservative Republicans in the Primary, rather than moderates (See Schwarz, Joe vs. Walberg, Tim). A conservative Republican would have an uphill climb against Schauer. All in all, Schauer will have the advantage of incumbency going for him, and should be favored.
Rating: Leans Democrat
District 8: Lansing, Livingston County, N. Oakland County. This may finally be the year that Democrats seriously challenge Mike Rogers. In 2000, Rogers barely beat Democrat Diane Byrum to succeed Democrat Debbie Stabenow, who ran successfully for the Senate. Since then, he has not been seriously challenged in this marginal district.
Rogers may run for governor, which would give Democrats an even better chance at picking up this district. we have a strong bench here, as the district is centered around heavily Democratic Ingham County, home of Lansing. Possible Democrats include Lansing mayor and former State Senator Virg Bernero, State Rep. and former East Lansing Mayor Mark Meadows, State Senator Gretchen Whitimer, State Rep. Joan Bauer, and State Rep. Barb Byrum, daughter of 2000 candidate Diane Byrum.
If Rogers does run for Governor, Livingston State Senator Valde Garcia would be the likely Republican candidate.
Rating: Likely Republican (Tossup if Rogers runs for Governor)
District 9: Central Oakland County. Freshman Gary Peters is the heavy favorite in this suburban Detroit district, even though he just defeated Republican incumbent Joe Knollenberg last November. Like many suburban districts nationwide, this one has been trending Democratic for a while now. Joe Knollenberg’s son state Rep. Marty Knollenberg may try to retak his father’s seat, but when an incumbent loses by 9%, his son is unlikely to do much better.
Rating: Likely Democrat
District 10: “The Thumb”, Northern Macomb County. Republican Candice Miller is not likely to be challenged in 2010. The former secretary of state may run for governor, however. If she does, advantage still goes to the Republicans here. Dem. John Espinoza may run for the open seat. Republican Sen. Alan Sanborn is the likely favorite in an open seat.
Rating: Safe Republican
District 11: West Oakland County, North-East Wayne County. Thad McCotter is in a very dangerous spot right now, and he knows it. He only managed 51% in this once strongly Republican suburban district against a nobody in 2010. He apparently senses the danger, and is willing to sell his soul to save his seat.
Democrats have a very strong bench in this district. House speaker Andy Dillon lives here, and the DCCC will likely try to recruit him, as well as State Senator Glenn Anderson, who represents the Conservative city of Livonia. Other candidates include State Reps. Marc Courriveau and Richard LeBlanc.
McCotter used to be able to count on his base in Livonia to get re elected, but Livonia, like all of Wayne county, continues to trend Democratic. Novi, in Oakland County, was also a reliably Democratic part of the District. But like the 11th District as a whole, Novi was won by Barack Obama.
Rating: Tossup
District 12: Parts of Oakland and Macomb Counties. Sander Levin is likely to run for re-election, but if he doesn’t look for his son, Andy Levin to run for his seat. If not Levin, State Senator Gilda Jacobs may run. Either way, the district is safe.
Rating: Safe Democrat
District 13: Detroit. The big question here is: Has the Kilpatrick scandal blown over? If so, Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick will be safe. If there are still lingering doubts about her suport for her son, then she may well see a another vigorous Primary Challenge. Mary Waters will probably run again, but there are other Detroit area legislators that may want to take her on as well. Barack Obama may have broken 90% in this majority Black District, so the winning the Democratic Primary will be tantamount to winning the General Election.
Rating: Safe Democrat.
District 14: Detroit. Nothing to see here. John Conyers is safe.
Rating: Safe Democrat
District 15: Detroit suburbs, Monroe County, Ann Arbor. I fully expect John Dingell to retire in 2010. He just lost his committee chairmanship, and on top of that, he can barely walk. If he does, watch either his wife, Debbie Dingell, or his son, Christopher Dingell. Also watch former Congresswoman Lynn Rivers, who lost the 2002 primary to Dingell after the two were drawn together by redistricting. Rivers is quite liberal and would made a very good congresswoman, in my opinion.
The 2008 Election in Michigan was by far the best that we’ve had in years, maybe decades. We picked up two congressional seats, both of which were gerrymandered to favor Republicans. Better yet, we won one of them by nearly 10 points. Barack Obama won by a landslide here (16%) Compared to John Kerry, who only won by three points. On the Statewide level, we passed two progressive ballot initiatives, threw out the conservative Chief Justice of the State Supreme Court, and made huge gains in the State House of Representatives.
Presidential
Barack Obama won the state of Michigan by a margin of 57%-41%, better than any Democrat has done in decades. Also for the first time in years, the Democrat won a majority of the counties in the state.
Congress
Democrat Gary Peters Defeated Incumbent Republican Joe Knollenberg by a margin of 52%-43% in the 9th District, located in Central Oakland County including the cities of Pontiac, Auburn Hills, Rochester, Troy, and West Bloomfield. This is the first time in decades that a significant portion of Oakland County has been represented by a Democrat. Peters is a former State Senator, the 2006 candidate for Attorney General, and the current lottery commissioner.
In the 7th District, located in south central Michigan, State Senate minority leader Mark Schauer defeated CFG wingnut Tim Walberg by a margin of 46%-49%. The district includes Calhoun county, home to Battle Creek, as well as Jackson County, home to the city of Jackson, which is imfamous for being the birthplace of the Republican Party. Schauer is the popular state Senator who represents the largest counties, Calhoun and Jackson. He was endorsed by the former moderate Congressman, Joe Schwartz, whom Walberg defeated in the 2006 Republican Primary.
Ballot Initiatives
Michigan voters passed a Medical Marijuana initiative by a very wide margin, 63%-37%. But the initiative that drew the most money, and that was the prime target of the conservatives, was Prop. 2, which would use state money to fund stem-cell research. Voters passed Prop. 2 by 53%-47%.
State House of Representatives
In August, I predicted that Democrats would pick up anywhere from 3-7 seats in the State House. Democrats picked up a total of 9 seats! That is three more than we won in 2006. It is also the second cycle in a row that we did not lose a single seat, a 15 seat streak. We now have a 67-43 advantage, only 6 seats away from a 2/3 majority. It also means that we are almost certain to hold the State House in 2012, just in time for redistricting. Here are the Democrats who picked up Republican held seats:
District 62-Calhoun County, Battle Creek, Albion.
Kate Segal (D)-62% Gregory Moore (R)-32%
District 101- Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, and Mason Counties.
Dan Scripps (D)-60% Ray Franz (R)40%
District 1- Wayne County, Northeast Detroit, Harper Woods, Grosse Pointe
Tim Bledsoe (D)-57% Mary Treder Lang (R)-43%
District 108- Delta, Menominee, and Dickinson Counties
Judy Nerat (D)-56% Mike Falcon (R)-44%
District 70- Montcalm County, part of Ionia County
Mike Huckleberry-(D) 54% Tom Ginster-(R) 46%
District 21- Wayne County, Canton
Dian Slavens (D)-52% Todd LaJoy-(R) 45%
District 39- Oakland County, West Bloomfield Township
Lisa Brown (D)-52% Amy Peterman-(R) 46%
District 32- Northeast Macomb County, Central St. Clair County
Jennifer Haase-(D) 50% John Accavitti-(R) 47%
District 24- Macomb County, St. Clair Shores
Sarah Roberts (D)-49% Bryan Brandenburg-47%
And the narrow losers:
District 61- Western Kalamazoo County, Portage
Julie Rogers (D)-49% Larry DeShazor (R)-51%
District 43- Oakland County, Waterford Township
Scott Hudson (D)-47% Gail Haines (R)-49%
District 78- Southern Berrien County, Western Cass County
Judy Truesdell (D)-52% Sharon Tyler (R)-52%
District 51- Southern Genesee County
Michael Thorp (D)-47% Paul Scott (R)-53%
Democrats held all competitve seats. Here are the closest contests for Democrat held seats:
District 91- Muskegon County except Muskegon, Northeast Ottawa County
Mary Valentine (D)-54% Holly Hughes (R)-46%
District 106- Alcona, Alpena, Crawford, Montmorency, Oscoda, and Presque Isle Counties.
Andy Neumann (D)-53% Peter Pettalia (R)-44%
These two were actually the only remotely competitive Democrat races.
Republicans targeted also targeted the following Democrats who took over Republican seats in 2006: Marc Courriveau won 59-41, Robert Dean won 58-40, Terry Brown won 65-35, Mike Simpson won 63-37, and Martin Griffin won 63-37. Vicki Barnett also won a competitve open seat 60-40.
2010
Thad McCotter (R-11th District), the Congressman who reprents Suburban portions of Wayne and Oakland Counties, only won re-election 45-51. State Senator Glenn Anderson represents almost all of the portion of the 11th District that lies in Wayne County. Anderson may decide to run against Mad Thad in 2010. State Rep-elect Dian Slavens, who pulled an upset in her race this year, may also run. Marc Courriveau also scored an upset in a strongly Republican district in 2006. Courriveau would be the best candidate, in my opinion. He’s young, from a Republican area, and has run for congress three times in the area.
The State Senate will also be up for re-election in 2010. We have to take control of this body if we want to control the redistricting process, as we could well lose the governors office.
Races to watch are The 7th District in suburban Wayne County, which will be open, The 34th which includes heavily Democratic Muskegon County and will also be open. The 20th will also be open in 2010. It is currently the most Democratic district held by a Republican in the entire state. All three district were won by Barack Obama, and will be open in 2010. We only need three districts to take control, since we currently hold 17 seats to the republicans 21. These three districts will probably be the top targets of the State Democratic Party.
It promises to be a tough Election Night for me and my Michigan 7th. If I had my way, I’d be sitting in front of the computer with a bag of popcorn from about noon until 3:00am. I really get into elections. And I’m ready to be done with the Mark Schauer versus Tim Walberg race. But sadly, I won’t be able to watch the beginning of the drama I’ve waited so long to see.
From 7:00pm to 9:00pm, I'm going to be away from a computer– and, in fact, away from any televisions, radios, or other devices which report election results. During arguably the most exciting portion of the night, when Virginia may be called for Obama, or when the returns start coming in for the Georgia Senate race, or when our own district begins reporting, I won't be able to be a part of it.
For a political junkie like me, that's like missing the World Series, the Rose Bowl (Go 'Cats!I believe in you!), and the World Cup all at once, which, by the way, are also on Christmas. Tomorrow could be a really amazing day, and I’m disappointed that I’ll be missing a big part of it.
But when I do get to a computer, I’ll be looking for a few things. I don’t claim to have a secret formula or know which tiny town will be the bellwether, and I’m definitely not a Grebner-like expert. But I can tell you what I think a Schauer victory might look like, and where I’ll be looking for it.
Turnout in Calhoun, Eaton, and Jackson Counties
With 98 percent of Michigan’s voting population registered, there are a lot of people who could show up to vote. That’s got to worry Tim Walberg, whose victory in the 2006 GOP primary was thanks to what former Congressman Joe Schwarz called a “motivated minority” of 7.8 percent in a low-turnout primary. (Schwarz also called them “quasi-theocrats… infiltrating the party power structure”). Granted, a general election is very different from a primary, but a Walberg victory will depend on certain people not showing up, namely in Calhoun County, where Mark Schauer could run up the margin.
But Walberg has someone working against him: Barack Obama. The Obama campaign has done a phenomenal job of registering new voters who are trending Democratic. But they didn’t ask prospective voters for a partisan affiliation before they registered them, nor should they have. In a Republican-leaning district, is it possible that the Obama campaign might have just registered a bunch of new Republicans?
Maybe, but judging from where the new voters are coming from, probably not. With help from the Detroit Free Press (who got the data from the Michigan Secretary of State), here’s a fun table:
County Reg. Voters New Voters % Change (Jan. – Oct.)
Branch 31,805 683 +2%
Calhoun* 103,707 3,950 +4%
Eaton 80,023 2,781 +4%
Hillsdale 33,327 724 +2%
Jackson 115,357 4,672 +4%
Lenawee 71,552 2,170 +3%
Washtenaw* 273,955 24,962 +10%
Note that both Calhoun and Washtenaw Counties have portions not in the 7th District. This is especially important in Washtenaw County, where Ann Arbor (and the University of Michigan) probably accounts for most of the voters and most of the growth. However, Battle Creek, which is in the district, is the major population center for Calhoun County, and is probably responsible for most of that growth. So for our simplified purposes here, let’s ignore Washtenaw County but keep Calhoun County.
As you can see, the most new voters were added in Calhoun, Eaton, and Jackson Counties (both in absolute number of voters and in proportion to their populations). Calhoun County is generally considered safe territory for Mark Schauer, who has represented the voters there in the state House and Senate since 1996 and is generally very popular. Jackson and Eaton Counties, meanwhile, are the major “battlegrounds.” Not only are they vote-rich, but they were divided pretty evenly in the 2006 election (Eaton: Renier 50 Walberg 48; Jackson: Walberg 51 Renier 46). Although Schauer currently represents much of Jackson County in the state Senate, I’m expecting it to be a major battleground again. Neglected in the voter registration drives were the Walberg strongholds of Branch and Hillsdale Counties, and to a lesser degree, Lenawee County (more on it in a minute).
I don’t have solid data behind me, but I’m going to guess that if they turn out to vote, the new voters in Calhoun, Eaton, and Jackson Counties will break Democratic. If they were registered by the Obama folks, they were probably targeted as students or underrepresented populations, which is probably good news for Mark Schauer. At least, that’s what I’m hoping.
In 2006, Calhoun County had 47.5 percent turnout, Eaton County had 59.9 percent turnout, and Jackson County had 51.8 percent turnout (data here and here). If turnout is higher than that in those three counties (and especially Calhoun County), new voters and Schauer loyalists could run up enough of a margin to offset losses in the southern part of the district. If the turnout is really big in Calhoun County, that might be the whole ball game.
Is that a possibility? Could central-west Michigan see a massive surge in turnout? I don’t know, but it sounds like Kalamazoo County (one west from Calhoun County) is getting ready for one:
KALAMAZOO — Bracing for a very long and very busy Tuesday, area election officials say they're "as ready as we'll ever be" for the 2008 presidential election.
"We're in good shape," Kalamazoo County Clerk Tim Snow said. "We've been preparing for this all year. We knew this was going to be big."
A surge in voter registrations and predictions of a higher rate of participation means the county could have as many as 144,000 voters this year, compared to the 120,000 who cast ballots four years ago.
The city of Kalamazoo, in particular, has taken steps to avoid long lines Tuesday, putting in a minimum of 14 voting stations at each precinct and substantially increasing the staffing.
[…]
On Tuesday, polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. People who are in line at 8 p.m. will be allowed to vote. The forecast calls for sunny skies and a high near 70 degrees.
Lenawee County
This is where Tim Walberg should win. He represented Lenawee County for 16 years in the state House of Representatives, and the mostly rural county is famous (or infamous) for its conservative politics and sometimes frightening tendencies. (Anyone else remember “Radio Free Lenawee”?) This is where I’m from, and I can say that it is a conservative place.
At the same time, though, people don’t really like Tim Walberg all that much. Oh, sure, some do. Whenever I was canvassing, I was bound to run into someone who would say, “I plan to vote for Tim, I’ve known him for years” or something like that. But I’d also meet someone who’d say, “Walberg? I can’t believe we keep electing that guy!” The solidly-Republican state House seat Walberg vacated has been in Democratic hands (albeit moderate ones) for ten years. With state Representative Dudley Spade basically guaranteed reelection, it’ll stay that way for at least two more years.
Meanwhile, the county is changing. Before the economy got really bad, a lot of people were moving out to Clinton or Tecumseh from Ann Arbor or metro Detroit for the cheaper properties, willing to put up with the couple-hour commute. They don’t have a relationship with Tim Walberg, and some of them are even (gasp) Democrats.
And the Schauer campaign has taken the county seriously, opening an office in downtown Adrian and hiring a full-time field organizer to staff it and coordinate with the Obama and Spade campaigns. Whenever he’s in the county, Mark Schauer is certain to mention his great relationship with Doug and Dudley Spade, both of whom carry a lot of weight. (Side note: Their secret to success? They’re actually really good representatives. If you go to Dudley Spade with a problem, he’ll do everything he can to solve it.) Throw in the Obama organizers, and you’ve got a real chance for 2008 to be a year of Democratic revival in Lenawee County.
Will Mark Schauer win it? … No. It just won’t happen. But he can keep it close. Governor Jennifer Granholm managed to take 47 percent of the vote in 2006, and if Schauer can get a similar share of the vote and hold Walberg to 51 or 52 percent, it could mean a lot. If Schauer opens up a big lead in Calhoun County and Washtenaw County, then there just aren’t enough voters in Branch and Hillsdale Counties to make up for it. Walberg needs to win Lenawee County convincingly. If Lenawee County is as tight as the other “battlegrounds,” it’s going to be a rough night for Tim Walberg.
And what if Mark Schauer wins Lenawee County? Then short of something really unexpected happening, Schauer will win the district. But like I said, Schauer won’t win Lenawee County. I’m not going to let my hopes get that high.
Obama
Barack Obama is going to win the state of Michigan. The only question left is “How big?” Since John McCain pulled out of Michigan, it’s started to look pretty big. Here’s the Pollster.com chart for Michigan:
That’s quite a sight, isn’t it? The final Pollster average puts it at Obama +16, which would be a bigger margin than Bill Clinton’s +13 win in 1996. That year, with the help of Ross Perot, Bill Clinton carried four of the counties that currently make up the 7th District: Calhoun, Washtenaw, Lenawee, and Branch. Calhoun and Washtenaw are to be expected, but Lenawee and Branch surprised me when I looked back at them. After all, these are supposed to be the conservative parts of the district.
Supposing Obama has similar success, picking up Calhoun, western Washtenaw, and at least one other county, is there any way Mark Schauer can lose? I’m not sure what the Obama-Walberg voter looks like, and I’d be shocked to see Obama carrying Jackson County by a wide margin but Schauer losing it. Maybe it’s possible, but Mark Schauer has done a good job presenting himself as a moderate and a hard-working, dependable public servant. If Obama wins big, I can’t imagine any reason for the Obama voter to choose “more of the same” and Tim Walberg.
*****
Upon re-reading all of that, I’m worried that I’m being too optimistic and tempting fate for another disappointing election night. It’s possible. Even so, and despite not having any idea of what I’m doing, I think that most of my reasoning has some foundation to it. I think one of the three factors above (if not all of them) could contribute to a Schauer victory.
That’s what I’ll be looking for, sometime around 9:15pm Eastern Time. It’s possible that there will be a clear leader by the time I arrive on the scene. We’ll see soon enough if any of this is right.
Former U.S. Rep. Joe Schwarz is endorsing Democratic challenger Mark Schauer in his former south-central Michigan congressional district, even though he’s a Republican.
Schwarz told The Associated Press on Tuesday that he decided to endorse Schauer over Republican Rep. Tim Walberg because the anti-tax Club for Growth began running ads critical of Schauer. […]
Schwarz says he couldn’t remain neutral in the race once the group got involved. He says it’s “the straw that broke the camel’s back.”
Schwarz, a relatively moderate Republican, was defeated in the GOP primary in 2006 after the Club For Growth flooded the district with over $1 million in negative advertising. Earlier in the day, the Club announced that they’d be once again injecting themselves into this district by spending $175,000 on new attack ads against Democrat Mark Schauer.
In the end, it looks like that was a costly buy — for wingnut Rep. Tim Walberg.
Myers Research & Strategic Services for Mark Schauer (9/23-24, likely voters, 5/8-15 in parens):
Mark Schauer (D): 42 (37)
Tim Walberg (R-inc): 36 (40)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Schauer posts another lead over Walberg, whose job approval rating (34-46) is still in the dumps. Looks like the money spent by Patriot Majority and the DCCC here has had some effect.
The full polling memo is available below the fold. SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.
Today we’re excited to announce that our campaign raised more than $427,000 in the second quarter, which breaks the previous fundraising record we set earlier this year. Combined with the last three quarters when Sen. Schauer outraised incumbent Tim Walberg, we have brought in more than $1.33 million and have more than $928,000 cash on hand.
In this quarter alone, the campaign collected more than 1,100 total contributions, with more than 83 percent of individual contributions from donors in Michigan. With just over 100 days to go before the general election, we have now raised more than our opponent brought in during the entire 2006 election cycle.
Congressman Walberg has done nothing to improve Michigan’s job climate since taking office, but we fully expect him to do whatever it takes to keep his seat in Washington. That’s why it’s so important for us to keep working hard to defend against the impending negative attacks from Walberg’s wealthy donors.
Thanks to everyone in the netroots community for your continued support!
In August of 2006, a man named Tim Walberg (R-Tipton) defeated incumbent Congressman Joe Schwarz (R-Battle Creek) in the Republican primary. Those that live in Michigan's 7th District may remember the vicious primary campaign, in which Walberg– funded by the Club for Growth and other radical right-wing groups– destroyed the name and good work of a dedicated public servant. Schwarz was conservative, but he was honest and hard-working, and was one of the few “good” Republicans left. And Tim Walberg, a former far-right minister, attacked Schwarz without mercy.
A few days after the primary, I started a blog called Walberg Watch. Originally hosted on Blogspot, I wanted to create an online record of Walberg's extreme positions as the 2006 election approached, facing the terribly underfunded Democratic nominee Sharon Renier. Walberg won that election by just four percent, and I found myself with a new blogging mission: following Tim Walberg's adventure through what will hopefully be his only term in the United States House of Representatives.
Over the last two years, a lot has changed, with much of it building toward the re-launch at the new www.WalbergWatch.com. Below the fold, I'd like to walk you through some of the additions to Walberg Watch. I'm excited by what we can accomplish in the next 126 days as we work to bring about better representation. I hope that by the time you're done reading this, you are too.
The Blog
In addition to all of the new features, the original Walberg Watch blog is still up and running, with a new, blue look. I'm still writing about Congressman Walberg's voting record and all the issues of the campaign, and all the other contributors are still more than welcome to post to the new site.
That's not the exciting part. The exciting part is that you can post, too. No, we didn't switch over to Scoop or SoapBlox… that's more work than I'm ready for right now, and we are focused on only one congressional district. So, no diaries for us.
Instead, we've got a nifty form for you to submit your own content. It's not WYSIWYG, but it's got everything you need to start blogging.
Why is this a good idea? It's another level of people-powered politics. I can't tell you how many times readers have left comments saying things like, “Fitzy, why aren't you writing about X?” or “I was at Walberg's town hall and he said…” This is the perfect medium for sharing your thoughts and your stories. Let's face it, I'm not always on top of things. I miss votes, I miss stories, and sometimes, I'm just plain busy. If you're not satisfied with my blogging, or you just want to help out, this is hwo you do it! There is a slight delay, because I'll check over each post before it goes online to prevent spam.
This system can work on so many levels, and it's probably the part that I'm the most excited about. Suppose you're just an ordinary reader, but you just got back from a campaign event with Mark Schauer and you're really excited. Tell us about it! Suppose you're a well-respected Michigan blogger who, in addition to running a major Michigan blog, regularly posts items about Congressman Tim Walberg. Disappointed that Walberg Watch hasn't linked to you yet? Do it yourself!
Anything that you submit through this form will be posted to the Walberg Watch blog under the “Guest Blogger” user, and you'll be credited at the top of the post.
Video – Ours and Theirs
The written word can say so much, but sometimes, hours and hours of blogging could be summed up so much more simply with a few simple images and a little audio. That's why Walberg Watch now features a Media Center, which will be the center of 7th District-related media. We already have included every video created by the Schauer campaign and have added the 2006 campaign ad from Sharon Renier and the independently-produced videos from the 2006 and 2008 cycles. As more are created, they'll be added. As Congressman Walberg begins to advertise, I'll be working to include all of that as well.
But it's not just going to be copying other people's work. I'm entering the exciting (and slightly frightening) world of video myself, with weekly Walberg Watch videos. Here are the first two:
Like the blogging above, I'm more than open to adding more content produced by readers as well. Think you can make better videos than I can? Well, I agree, and I'd love to see them!
Campaign Calendar
There's no better way to judge a person by actually showing up and listening to what he or she has to say. I've seen Tim Walberg up close, and you should to. It'll give you a clear idea of what a smooth talking, career politician with a radical agenda looks like.
And what about Mark Schauer and Sharon Renier? We've got two Democratic candidates and a primary just over a month away. Sure, you could read their positions on the issues (here and here), but why not ask them questions in person, too?
We've got the answer for that in our Calendar page. Upcoming candidate events are conveniently listed, and there's a handy map which shows where candidates are going and where they've been
Go, ask Tim Walberg the tough questions! Get to know Mark Schauer and Sharon Renier. And remember, Walberg Watch is always there for the latest updates.
Online Resources
It's not just enough for people like me to type away at a keyboard all day. There are a lot of voters in the 7th District that don't know much about Walberg, or are dissatisfied but aren't yet sure about his potential replacements. It's going to take a lot of hard work to unseat Congressman Walberg, which is where you have to come in. Luckily for you, I've got some things that could help out.
At our new Action page, we're compiling all sorts of resources that will help you talk with friends and neighbors about their representative. There's Tim Walberg's voting record, and, coming soon, a printable document outlining what a progressive Democrat representing the district would do differently. There's information on how to register to vote (or how to register others), plus important deadlines. We can show you where to go if you want to contribute to or volunteer with a Democratic campaign in the 7th District, and you can sign up for weekly updates and e-mail action items (which start going out next week).
What kind of action items would those be? We'll be sending out suggested topics for letters to the editor and issues for letter-writing campaigns to Tim Walberg. And, of course, we'll be providing resources for making your letters even better, too.
Organize!
The new and improved Walberg Watch is more than just a new domain (www.walbergwatch.com). Following a reader suggestion, I created a Walberg Watch page on PartyBuilder, the social networking site hosted by the Democratic National Committee.
Why is that a good thing? Through PartyBuilder, you can connect with like-minded voters who are as eager as you are to elect someone new. Coming from Lenawee County (and just a short drive away from Tim Walberg himself), I can tell you that for some of us, it can be kind of lonely being a Democrat. There's nothing that energizes you more than learning that you're not alone!
But “connect” is such a vague term. What does that actually mean? Using PartyBuilder tools, it could mean organizing a letter-writing campaign to voice your opinions to Tim Walberg. It could mean coordinating efforts to write letters to the editor in area newspapers. It could mean organizing independent canvassing in more remote parts of the district.
The best part is, any organizing can be done independently of Walberg Watch itself. That's the power of grassroots energy and people-powered campaigning.
That image, of course, is a little out of date… we now have five members, not just one, and I'm hoping to see many more join as I promote the page over the coming weeks.
What YOU Can Do
Hopefully, by now, you're as excited as I am. If you're a voter in Michigan's 7th Congressional District, and even if you're not, here are five steps you can take today:
Visit Walberg Watch. I'm eager to show off the new look, and to discover technical bugs. Since I'm not a web designer and did the upgrade myself, the new site is a mix of Blogger, Google Page Creator, customized HTML, and a little bit of PHP I had to pick up. I've been fighting bugs for a week and hopefully have found most of them, but I could use your help in finding whatever is left.
Update your blogrolls. The new location dropped us off the map for Google searches, so if you're currently linking to the old Blogspot page, updating that link will help a great deal. (If you're not already linking to us… well, why not?)
Sign up for e-mail updates. You, too, can get the latest on Tim Walberg and action that can help end his time in Washington.
Join our PartyBuilder page. Connect with other Democrats and help come up with ideas for advancing progressivism in the heart of southern Michigan.
Blog!Start writing about why Tim Walberg needs to go, and help make Walberg Watch a better resource for everyone.
Thank you very much for your time. I hope to see all of you over at Walberg Watch sometime soon!
In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms. But so far, it’s been all over the map. I’ll try to corral all their statements into this diary, so you can see who the “good guys” are.
First, let’s start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill. They do deserve credit, as it’s their jobs on the line.
Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.
Now, not all of these statements were made this past week. Some came from 2007, and others came around February when this issue was last up in the air. But hey, they’re on record. So here goes, alphabetically by district. If you know of a candidate who HAS spoken out against retroactive immunity and the FISA bill, please let me know in the comments, and please include the link where we can read their statement, and I’ll update the diary accordingly.
It was Ben Franklin who said that “any man who is willing to sacrifice essential liberties for the sake of security deserves, neither.” We seem to have a country full of people who are willing to sacrifice essential liberties for the sake of an empty promise of security. As a free country, founded on concepts like justice and liberty, the de-evolution of our free society should not be tolerated by any people of conscience.
CA-04: Charlie Brown (seriously, read his entire diary, it’s excellent)
I flew missions that monitored electronic communications around the world-often with Soviet MIGs flying off my wing and hoping I’d make a wrong turn. Our standing order was “if you even suspect you are collecting data on an American citizen, you are to cease immediately, flag the tape, and bring it to a supervisor.” We knew failure to comply would yield serious consequences-the kind that can end your career, or worse, land you in jail.
In short, professional, accurate intelligence collection guidelines were used to protect America “from all enemies, foreign and domestic,” without also undermining the very freedoms we were protecting.
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But this debate isn’t just about security; it’s about accountability. As an officer who was both involved in these programs and held personally accountable for my actions in the name of defending America, I have a problem with giving a few well-connected, well-healed companies who knowingly usurp the law a free pass.
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And when I see companies acting “in the interest of national security” held to a lower standard of accountability than the dedicated professionals charged with our nation’s defense, silence is not an option.
And to those few companies seeking immunity for breaking the law despite the best of intentions—might I offer a few comforting words on behalf of all who serve, and all who have borne the responsibilities of safeguarding our great nation…freedom isn’t free.
Members of Congress take an oath to uphold and defend the Constitution. So do members of the Executive and Judiciary Branches. Unlike the Bush Administration, however, I will do all in my power to uphold and defend the Constitution, particularly regarding the protections and inalienable rights of all humanity it guarantees to the American people.
We live in an unsafe world. We need to ensure we take all necessary and legal steps to safeguard our country and its citizens. Our Constitution provides for checks and balances against government intrusiveness infringing upon fundamental rights of speech, religion, privacy, unlawful search and seizure, etc. It is ironic that the most efficient way to ensure perfect safety is by discarding these fundamental rights. In fact, some of the most repressive governments today (North Korea, anyone?) rule over some of the safest countries – at least when it comes to walking the streets at night.
Unfortunately, the Bush administration has ignored the Constitutions checks and balances. Instead it has created its own Rule of Law. The Bush Administration has suspended habeas corpus, sanctioned torture and illegal spying on Americans and created an extralegal detention center in Guantanamo. This arrogance continues even though the American people and many of our leading jurists and representatives have stated they want our Constitution followed in the manner envisioned by our Founding Fathers and confirmed by all subsequent administrations except the current one.
In the past the United States has ensured that those persons on its soil or under its jurisdiction or power are treated with the same dignity and respect as American citizens. This is based on that marvelous statement in the Declaration of Independence, [w]e hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable Rights. These inalienable rights are not limited to one gender, one party or one nationality. While we cannot always influence other governments to respect these rights we can guarantee them whenever they involve those on our soil or under our jurisdiction or power.
Therefore, it is ironic that the Bush Administration, which denounces the human rights record of the Cuban government, echoes that record by claiming the Guantanamo detainees are not subject to American due process in legal proceedings precisely because they are housed in Cuba even though they are under American jurisdiction and power. How long will it be before the current infringement of inalienable rights on our own soil, which now consists of illegal spying on Americans, escalates to suspension of Habeas Corpus or even torture against Americans?
No one not the President, not the Vice President, not members of the Cabinet is above the law, nor should any governmental branch be allowed to discard Constitutional guarantees. When I become your congressional representative I will do more than merely recite my constitutional oath of office as a rite of passage. I will act upon that oath and support and defend the Constitution. I will act to restore the constitutional balance between inalienable rights and safety. As Americans we will be free . . . we will be safe . . . and we will not participate in violations of those inalienable rights guaranteed to all by our Constitution.
Our nation was founded on a system of checks and balances. Unfortunately, the checks and balances in the Constitution and the freedoms Americans hold dear have been slowly eroding. Finally, last week the Supreme Court drew a line in the sand and restored habeas corpus, one of the Constitution’s most basic and essential protections against government abuse.
Some in Congress wish to eliminate another essential freedom by allowing the government to spy on its citizens without a warrant and giving lawbreakers who do so immunity from prosecution. Our founding fathers would be outraged at the bargaining away of the Bill of Rights.
You don’t fight terrorism abroad by taking away at our freedoms at home.
We now know George Bush’s wiretapping program is not a narrow examination of calls made to and from suspected terrorist suspects — unless you believe that you and I are terrorists. I am worried and angry that the National Security Agency (NSA) has secretly purchased from the three largest telecommunications companies in the country, telephone records on tens of millions of Americans. On December 17, 2005, President Bush said he authorized the program, “to intercept the international communication of people with known links to Al Qaeda and related terrorist organizations. Then on January 23, 2006, after concerns were expressed that the NSA tapped into telecommunications arteries, Gen. Michael Hayden, then NSA chief, now CIA nominee, asserted his organization engages in surveillance if there is a “reasonable” basis for eavesdropping.
George Bush asks us to believe the NSA is not listening to phone conversations. Does that comfort you? Anyone with experience in data management knows the government now has the information necessary to cross-reference phone numbers, with available databases that link names and numbers to compile a substantial dossier on every American. Evidently, Bush now sees the enemy, and it is us.
I will insist on national security — we all must — but we must also insist that America is a land of laws. No one is above the law. If the law is a circumstantial inconvenience for President Bush, the law will soon be irrelevant to the ordinary American. Bush repeatedly asserts that the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) — which established a special court to confidentially review and authorize sensitive surveillance requests — does not apply to his surveillance program, so George Bush bypasses the court.
When you elect me to Congress, I will sponsor and pass legislation to remove any doubt that warrantless spying on ordinary Americans is illegal. We must do what is right, let the consequences follow.
What’s much MUCH more disconcerting to me is the entire FISA bill…As somebody who has been a prosecutor and dealt with the 4th Amendment, I can tell you that this happened to have been the one amendment in the Bill of Rights that all the Founding Fathers could agree upon; that in order for the government intrusion there had to be probable cause signed off on by an independent magistrate that says you may have committed a crime. I find the entire FISA process to be constitutionally dubious. That doesn’t mean that it couldn’t be made constitutionally valid but I think that anytime you have wiretaps involved…that deals with an American citizen, you’ve gotta have a court sign off on it. The only question in my mind is whether or not that has to be done prior to there warrant being executed or whether or not there is some grace period. There is no doubt in my mind that the executive branch itself cannot act as both overseer and executioner (of warrants or wiretaps). That, I think, is constitutionally impermissible; I think it’s a violation of the judiciary’s proper role of interpreting laws.
As a former prosecutor [and] law clerk in the US Attorney’s office in the Major Frauds and Economic Crimes section…I’ve never heard of anybody being given immunity when you don’t know what they’ve done. It’s not how the immunity process works. You don’t say to somebody ‘Whatever you’ve done, don’t worry about it.’…It’s unthinkable to me as a lawyer and as somebody who will have…sworn to uphold the Constitution that I could ever support that.
FISA should never have been expanded. The government’s ability to spy was extensive enough already. The government is failing us in so many ways right now, this can just be added to the list. I want a safe, secure country. I have lived my life trying to secure exactly that. Frankly, the reason I joined the service was to defend my country’s beautiful liberties and secure them for future generations of Americans. Some attribute the following quote to Benjamin Franklin “Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.” No one can express the ideology of our democracy better than one of the founders.
As far as telecommunications immunity, my understanding is that legal culpability is determined in context. It is quite a thing to have the power of the executive branch of the government pointed in your direction making demands. Lack of courage to say “no” under such circumstances is no surprise. I think courts are well equipped to unravel this type of legal factual minutia and get to a just result. Immunity from the law is something to be dolled out sparingly.
Said land conservation activist Shafroth: “While this current bill takes some small steps to weaken the authority of the president to unilaterally spy on Americans, it does not go far enough in protecting our civil liberties.”
Internet entrepreneur Polis said that “phone companies should not be given a pass and should be held accountable for their involvement in unwarranted wiretapping.”
And former state Senate President Fitz-Gerald criticized the bill’s “de facto immunity for telecommunications companies that broke the law.”
“The government has no right to listen and wiretap any phone without judicial oversight,” she said.
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Fitz-Gerald said the House version of the legislation amending FISA was better than an earlier U.S. Senate version, but “it still was not acceptable and I would have rejected the House measure.”
Shafroth said he would have voted against the bill because “many of the protections in the bill are superficial and there are too many avenues left to the president to unconstitutionally spy on American citizens.”
Polis said the nation must restore people’s trust in their government, but “rushing FISA reform through Congress is not the answer.”
It is disappointing that some of our Democratic leaders are rushing FISA reform through Congress. I strongly oppose telecom immunity that paves the ground for the further erosion of our privacy and civil liberties.
Our Democratic leaders in Washington should stand firm against allowing Republicans and the Bush Administration to violate the civil liberties of our citizens any more than they already have; phone companies should not be given a pass and should be held fully accountable for their involvement in unwarranted wiretapping.
Rather than providing cover for the Bush administration, our leaders should show backbone and not allow FISA reform to be rushed through Congress.
The fear mongering tactics of President Bush and his cronies on Capitol Hill are tired; the American public now understands that we can have security at home while also protecting the civil liberties of our law abiding citizens.
I had left a message there asking her position on this FISA bill. She personally took the time to call me back and told me she is against this thing and would have voted Nay!
“In Congress, I will always stand up for the fundamental American belief that no man, and no corporation, is above the law. As always, this is a matter for the courts to decide– not for Congress, and absolutely not for the same Bush Administration who may have violated the law in the first place. It is great to see so many American citizens of all backgrounds coming together to stand up for the rule of law and in opposition to retroactive immunity for telecommunications companies who may have illegally spied on American citizens at the Bush Administration’s request. I am disappointed that Chris Shays and so many others continue to stand with President Bush by refusing to stand up for this most fundamental of American principles.”
What, exactly, is the Right Wing’s problem with the Fourth Amendment? Why do they constantly seek ways to evade and subvert the Fourth Amendment? It seems to have worked pretty well, for over 200 years. And over 99% of the time, the federal judges give all POTUS the warrants he wants.
What it really comes down to is that they want a dictatorship. It’s issues like this one, where the Right has to choose between conservatism and fascism, when you see their true colors.
As the “New York Times” said in its June 18 editorial: “The bill is not a compromise. The final details are being worked out, but all indications are that many of its provisions are both unnecessary and a threat to the Bill of Rights. The White House and the Congressional Republicans who support the bill have two real aims. They want to undermine the power of the courts to review the legality of domestic spying programs. And they want to give a legal shield to the telecommunications companies that broke the law by helping Mr. Bush carry out his warrantless wiretapping operation.”
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The problem is special interest money, Curtis said, coupled with a business-as-usual attitude in Washington.
“This is the root cause of the Democrats’ inability to stand up to the Republicans. They are all eating from the same trough,” Curtis said. “This is why we need leadership that will stay true to our values rather than cater to special interest contributors.”
“The laws that were created under FISA were sufficient to meet our country?s national security needs. What the Bush administration has done, again, is present Americans with a false choice between national security and civil liberties, while this bill increases neither. I oppose any broad retroactive immunity provided to companies who may have broken the law. The legal purpose of immunity is to use the protection granted by such immunity as an inducement to divulge information about what occurred. Immunity in this case would do the opposite: it would shut down any investigation into what actually occurred.”
GA-08: Robert Nowak (primary challenger to Jim Marshall)
The latest demand from President Bush, that the US Congress shield telecommunication providers from liability for breaking federal law, is a real step backwards in the important mission of authorizing an effective intelligence surveillance program. Congress not give blanket immunity for any unlawful acts, it should renew its call for increased oversight of the telecom providers that may or may not have broken federal surveillance laws.
Further, the US Congress must not budge in insisting that any surveillance program with the capability of eavesdropping on US citizens be subject to court oversight.
The Congress should insist on codifying in the statute a court order requirement for any surveillance done on American citizens.
This last August, Representative Marshall voted for a temporary bill that allowed for expanded wiretapping and surveillance on Americans without a court order. Allowing that regime to continue is unacceptable.
GA-12: Regina Thomas (primary challenger to John Barrow)
After reading the FISA bill — Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act — I thought “This can not be good for Americans. That the Bush Administration wants unlimited powers for spying on not only terrorists, but on any American citizen. This is against and violates the Constitutional Fourth Amendment [right of] privacy. This also allows warrant-less monitoring of any form of communication in the United States.” I was disappointed and dismayed with my Congressman John Barrow supporting this Bush Republican initiative against Americans. Too often Congressman Barrow from the 12th district in Georgia has voted with Bush and the Republicans on key issues.
The Congress is considering a bill that guarantees retroactive immunity for telecom companies who participated in the President’s illegal wiretap program, and that fails to protect the privacy of law-abiding Americans at home. This measure would require the courts to grant immunity to big telecom companies for their past illegal eavesdropping on American citizens, and authorize future surveillance on citizens without adequate checks and balances to protect their rights.
This is wrong. No one should get a free pass for breaking the law. Iowans and all Americans have a right to live their lives without government intrusion on their privacy.
If elected, I would vigorously oppose this measure. I believe that the constitutional rights of everyday Americans are at issue here, and full accountability is needed. No President should ever have unchecked power. Americans in the U. S. with no connection to suspected terrorists should never have their privacy abridged by an overzealous, unchecked executive branch. As Americans, we can protect ourselves without destroying our Constitutional rights. We need to focus on the very real threats we face, and not waste our resources on spying on loyal Americans.
Today, Rep. Mark Kirk once again showed how out-of-step he is with Illinois’ 10th district, by siding with the Bush administration to protect telecommunications companies who participated in illegal spying on American citizens. Kirk has received over $80,000 in contributions from the telecom companies he has continually voted to protect.
Coming in the wake of his vote against outlawing waterboarding, Kirk has shown that he is more interested in following the Bush administration than upholding our international agreements, like the Geneva Convention, and protecting our constitutional rights.
Congressional Candidate Dan Seals (IL-10) released the following statement today:
“While I was pleased to see the House Democrats stand their ground against granting amnesty to the telecommunications companies who broke the law, I was disappointed to see Mark Kirk side once again with the Bush administration and his campaign contributors over the 4th amendment.
“The U.S. Constitution is not a discretionary document. It’s time we elect leaders with the courage and independence to stand up for our most sacred rights. When I go to Congress, I will stand up for our Constitution and ensure that no one is above the law.”
I like Brad Ellsworth, and yes he is that good looking in person, I like Baron Hill, and always have, I like Joe Donnelly and have since the first time I met him, and the same for Senator Bayh, but I really, really, really, have a fondness for this piece of paper called the United States Constitution.
I would not have voted as they did on FISA, but I am more liberal than they are and we all know that, you know that, I know that, and they know that. Some in Indiana are afraid of being called a Liberal and the word comes from Liberty, so I think we should embrace it.
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Brad, Baron and Beyond, (Sorry, I couldn’t resist, it’s the blogger in me) voted the way they did because of National Security, and I do not hate them for voting what they believe, because I believe in National Security too, but I also understand the potential for expansion of the FISA bill, and the potential danger. I love this country but since 2000, have feared this government and do not agree with granting this administration any additional power. It is my hope that in 6 months this will not be re-newed, it is my fear that it will.
There are several reasons why I feel this bill is unnecessary. First, I think that we have lost focus on the fact that a competent Administration could have actually gone a long way in preventing this tragedy. The Bush Administration was warned in advance of 9-11 and did nothing at the time to prevent it. I believe if the Bush Administration would have acted on the intelligence provided them, then the 9-11 tragedy could have been avoided through the laws that existed at the time.
I also believe this law is an extension of the Bush Administration’s attempts to politicize the Justice Department. Prosecuting entities are provided by the Constitution with checks and balances on which to operate. They already have very broad powers and if they found a credible threat would have no problem getting a warrant in a timely fashion.
Finally, I believe that FISA and this compromise are an abomination to the Constitution because it seeks to circumvent the checks and balances provided all of us by that sacred document. I strongly oppose giving the Telecom Corporations immunity when they knew they were breaking the law, when the Bush Administration asked them to break the law.
I saw where my opponent in this race, “Exxon Ed” Whitfield voted for this Legislation. I think it is pretty ironic when the very Republicans who lecture us regarding limiting the roll of the Federal Government propose, and push through, the House of Representatives a bill that vastly broadens the powers of the Federal Government. This is one issue on which Progressives, Moderates and Conservatives should all be able to agree. There are certain things on which none of us should ever compromise, and the Constitution is one thing on which I will never compromise as Representative of Kentucky’s First District.
Personally I’m tired of Tim Walberg and George W. Bush using fear about our national security to score cheap political points. Congress has passed legislation to ensure that tools are in place to protect our country’s safety, but Walberg and Bush seem more interested in protecting big corporations that have helped them listen to our phone calls, read our emails, violate our privacy, then they are about protecting law-abiding citizens. I believe our Constitution, and our rights, including our right to privacy, are worth fighting for. If our government or big corporations break the rules, they should be held accountable.
I would have voted no. Let me start out by saying that, I am absolutely committed to keeping America safe, taking on the terrorists, and defending our national security. I was a Lt. Commander in the Navy Reserve, and I spent time over in the Persian Gulf. I understand what kind of pressure our people are under to get good intelligence. Good intelligence is absolutely critical to the safety of our soldiers and to protecting our country. We can’t function without it.
We definitely need to update FISA to give our intelligence agencies the tools they need, while also absolutely guaranteeing that Americans’ rights are protected.
There are important updates that we need to make to FISA, but I can’t support the retroactive immunity – and I sincerely hope that those provisions get stripped out in the Senate.
I am troubled by the House passage of HR 6304, the FISA Amendments Act of 2008. There is much we can do to prevent terrorism, but such measures do not require the sacrifice of fundamental constitutional freedoms which our country was founded upon. This legislation demonstrates the need for leaders in Congress who have experience in the military and in Iraq, and who value the rule of law as we fight the War on Terror.
The Fourth Amendment doesn’t exclude lobbyists. The “right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures” means George Bush and the other Washington politicians can’t grant immunity to law breakers no matter how much they give to campaigns.
It is unfortunate that it appears that the telecom industry has managed to falsely conflate its quest for retroactive immunity for lawbreaking with the issue of national security. The Founding Fathers understood that our safety as a nation depended on our being a nation of laws. Retroactive immunity undermines the rule of law, and therefore undermines our principles and security as a nation.
The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) issued a release today taunting Linda Stender, candidate for New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, on the issue of Congress’ re-authorization of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA).
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Stender hit back this afternoon.
“It’s clear from this nonsensical attack that the national Republicans know they’re in jeopardy of losing this seat,” said Stender campaign spokesman Joshua Henne. “Linda Stender believes we can defend both our nation’s security, and the Constitution. The Bush Republicans sadly still haven’t learned its possible to walk and chew gum at the same time.”
In America, no one is above the law. We shouldn’t compromise the integrity of our justice system to protect George Bush’s friends and allies in the telecommunications industry. Anyone who illegally spies on American citizens should be brought to justice.
This Friday, legislation was passed that will take away constitutionally guaranteed rights. The FISA bill strips Americans of these rights and protects telecommunications companies from being held accountable by the people.
I am standing up against my own party because I believe we can have sound legislation that defends our country and, at the same time, protects our Constitution. If we are to hold our government accountable, retroactive immunity is the wrong path to go down.
It’s time to support Democrats with democratic values and principles, Democrats who will work on behalf of the American people and protect their rights. When I’m elected to Congress, I will be that Democrat.
Today, Darius Shahinfar, candidate for the 21st Congressional District, called the compromise reached on amendment of the Federal Information Surveillance Act (FISA) a compromise of Constitutional principles.
“The critical problem of this compromise is that it contains a free pass for the Bush Administration’s and telecommunication companies’ past actions. The Administration’s use of warrantless wiretaps cannot be reviewed, and the process to review the telecommunications companies’ participation in the wiretapping program leads inevitably to immunity for those companies” Shahinfar said.
Darius’ remarks come at a time when the controversial piece of legislation would allow immunity to phone companies who currently face lawsuits for violating the constitutional rights of their members, according to plaintiff claims.
“By passing this piece of legislation, we are telling our government and our citizens that as long as the President tells you to do so, breaking the law is legal. No one, not even the President, is above our laws, especially when it comes to the issue of protecting our Constitutional rights.”
When asked further of his views about FISA, Shahinfar continued, “FISA was created 30 years ago, is applicable with today’s advanced technology and has been a vital tool in collecting intelligence for our nations’ security.It had not been an issue, until this administration decided to use it improperly and against its intended purpose. This will not make Americans any safer from threats at home or abroad; rather it will put us at the mercy of secret agreements between corporations and our government.”
If the Bush Administration had read the constitution the first time, we wouldn’t find ourselves having this debate. Granting amnesty to these companies would set a precedent that would allow others to arbitrarily ignore the constitution. No one should be above the law in America.
Growing up in Western New York, one of the first lessons I was taught was that each of us has to take responsibility for our actions. As a social studies teacher, I came to understand this principle in the broader context of our democracy. We are, first and foremost, a nation of laws. Each of us should be treated equally under the law, and no one should be given special treatment. The founding fathers designed the courts as the proper place to weigh one’s actions under the law, not the White House. I trust that the courts, which have ensured the rights and liberty of all Americans for over 200 years, are more than able to continue providing the wisdom and protections that keep us free.
NY-29: Eric Massa (you should really read the entire diary and Massa’s analysis)
At the heart of the debate is the truncation of the Fourth Amendment, which outlines the right of the people to be secure in their persons and belongings. That right, which many would consider a bedrock of basic liberties in the Nation, is altered to allow the Federal Government to conduct searches and seizures of personal property without a warrant from a court of law.
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But the bigger problem here is the immunity that would be given if it is found that the government and cooperating officials acted without due justification. Under current law, those involved can be held accountable and the individual on whom the actions were perpetrated can seek redress before the government. This right to seek redress is another fundamental individual liberty that the Revolutionary War was fought to gain for all Americans. This current bill takes away the right of citizens to seek redress.
The Bush Administration has run roughshod over the Constitution and now they expect the American people to pay for it by granting retroactive immunity to big corporations that illegally violated their customers’ privacy. Congress cannot not let itself be bullied into giving away the civil liberties that belong to every American, and I promise that as a congresswoman I will never put the interests of corporations before the rights of the people.
I am opposed to affording any immunity to the telecommunications companies who may have broken the law by their participation in handing over information or granting wire-taping access to the Bush Administration without first properly receiving permission through FISA Court.
I am hoping that before the current legislation makes its way to the President’s desk, members of the U.S. Senate will see that the protection of civil rights should precede any special treatment for any special interest. When the Patriot Act was first debated and wrongly passed, the telecommunications lobbying arm kept quiet and now they want to ensure that justice is silenced forever.
As the daughter of a cop, I have great respect for our Constitution and the pursuit of the truth. Any immunity that is granted before giving the American people the opportunity to even uncover a violation is a violation unto itself.
The Constitution also places no one above, below or immune from the law. The House Judiciary Committee was absolutely correct today to reject President Bush’s demand for blind and blanket immunity for large telecom companies who aided illegal spying. It should be noted that not all such companies heeded the call for unchecked Presidential power, and those who resisted should be commended. For the others, blind immunity for crimes, especially when not even yet fully documented, is an alien and disturbing idea to Americans.
“Finally, to those who imply that by opposing warrantless, illegal spying in America, Democrats somehow are aiding our enemies: I urge you to take an evening off, turn off that distracting talk radio and Fox News, and spend a quiet evening reading the Bill of Rights of the US Constitution. You may learn something new, and wonderful.
This out of control president has systematically shredded the Constitutional protections of every American, trashing the patriotism of anyone who is willing to stand up to him. To think that the U.S. Congress should come along behind George Bush rubber-stamping the suspension of the Bill of Rights is offensive to me. Congress is sworn to protect the Constitution, and gagging the courts from upholding the Rule of Law is the wrong way to protect this country from its enemies.
Has anyone in Washington these days ever heard of (let alone read) the U.S. Constitution– remember that document? We were guaranteed certain rights. It seems many Republican members of Congress lay awake at night, thinking what rights can we take away from our fellow Americans today.
Specifically my opponent J. Randy Forbes, VA (R) wanted to add language that would have ensured that nothing in the bill would be construed to prohibit surveillance of, or grant any rights to, a state sponsor of terrorism or agents of state sponsors of terrorism. In addition, the language would have permitted the intelligence community to conduct surveillance of any person concerning an imminent attack on the United States, any U.S. person, including members of the Armed Forces, or an ally of the United States, Osama Bin Laden, Al Qaeda, members of the al-Queda Iranian Revolutionary Guard, or any terrorist or terrorist organization. This language failed to garner enough votes to be included in H.R. 3773.
The right-wing is operating in force in Congress and the typical corporate Republicrats are once again falling in line. We have a Democratic majority in the House and yet they seem to be as confused by the meaning of the Constitution as the Republicans. Apparently, since impeachment is off the table, so is the U.S. Constitution. When I look at this new bill I can’t help wondering if this is the new Democratic thinking, “If we make all illegal actions legal, then the President and Vice President have done nothing wrong. Ergo there is no need to consider impeachment because no laws were broken.”
“This “compromise” will not make Americans safer,” said Perriello, a national security consultant with experience in Afghanistan, Darfur and West Africa. “If Congress and the President were serious about national security they would have spent their time and energy giving our brave intelligence officers the resources they need, not the American freedoms that our armed forces defend. Our constitutional principles are never up for negotiation.”
No one in this country should be above the law and saying Alberto Gonzales told me it was okay is hardly an excuse. I oppose retroactive immunity for the telecoms who engaged in illegal surveillance. Unfortunately, Frank Wolf has again sided with the President on this issue voting in favor of immunity for those who circumvented the FISA courts and our legal process.
Honestly, I don’t understand why at this point any member of Congress would think it was a good idea to give George Bush the power to grant immunity to anyone he wants around warrantless wiretapping – and to cover all tracks in the process. George Bush has proven, over and over again, that he cannot be trusted to uphold either the letter or the spirit of the laws that protect the people of the United States from the abuse of our government.
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All I can say is that I’m sorry Congress failed on this one – and that I will honor the pledge I hope to take to uphold the Constitution.
WY-AL: Gary Trauner (also see here for some excellent choice quotes Gary dug up from our own Founding Fathers)
Wow. I am deeply saddened today by the news that the US House has voted to pass a bill amending the Federal Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) which strikes at the very core of American democracy – our Constitutional Bill of Rights and the rule of law. It enables our federal government to intercept, without probable cause, all international communications of American citizens, and it provides retroactive immunity for companies that may have broken the law (if they did nothing wrong, why would they need immunity?).
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Wow! Is that what it’s come to? Our federal government says you must do something, even if it is against the law, and we “need” to do it? Well, I don’t care whether it’s the Republican Leadership in Washington DC or the Democrats in the House, I’ll proudly tell them – and you – where I stand on warrantless wiretapping, the rule of law and protecting our national security:
I want to ensure that my children, and all of our children, are safe from terrorist attacks by beefing up our intelligence capabilities, protecting vulnerable targets, proactively taking out terrorists such as Al-Qaeda in their hideouts in Afghanistan, Pakistan and around the world, and working to remove safe havens for terrorists by winning the battle of ideas, not simply the battle for Tikrit.
I believe in the Constitution and rule of law, the two things that define our great American experiment. We must not gut our freedoms in order to save our freedoms. If we do that, those who use terror as a tactic will achieve their goal – after all, what would we be fighting to protect?.
We can protect our nation without sacrificing everything our founding fathers and millions of veterans fought for; the FISA law, already updated in 2001 after 9/11 and recently patched to fix some omissions due to changing technology, works.
I would rather bring Osama Bin Laden to justice than help large corporations avoid justice.
If we value our Constitutional rights such as the 2nd amendment right to bear arms, we better think twice about ignoring other Constitutional rights, such as the 4th Amendment right to be free from unreasonable search and seizure without a warrant and probable cause. Because once we cherry pick the Constitution, someone will eventually come after the rights we hold most dear.
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Finally, the truth is that Congress last year passed a temporary extension of the Protect America Act that was vetoed by the President and voted against by the Republican leadership and certain Democrats. They said they would not accept a bill that does not include giving a free pass to companies that might have broken the law! Incredible. It deserve saying one more time – these so-called leaders are telling us the Protect America Act was so important, without it America is not protected from terrorists; however, they were willing to block this incredibly important Act, and leave America unprotected, unless large corporations were let off the hook for knowingly breaking the law. Because unlike you and me, who in the event of potential wrongdoing only get off the hook by presenting our case in a court of law, they think large corporations should be held to a different standard – no accountability.
The Alaskan Constitution protects the right of privacy. The 4th Amendment demands a warrant be issued for any search. And FISA says that domestic electronic surveillance must be approved by a special court. None of these facts should be forgotten on behalf of telecommunications companies that now face legal consequences for the role they played in the Bush administration’s warrantless wiretapping program. I am strongly opposed to retroactive immunity for telecommunications companies.
The Church Committee’s investigations resulted in the creation of a permanent Senate Committee on Intelligence, and the passage of substantial legislation, including the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) in 1978.
Church’s work is now being shredded by the Bush Administration.
FISA established a legal framework for electronic eavesdropping at home, including a special FISA court. It was originally passed to allow the government to collect intelligence involving communications with “agents of foreign powers.”
The Bush Administration exploited this narrow exception in the passage of the Patriot Act that allows use of FISA to obtain personal records from many sources including libraries and internet service providers, even when they have no connection to terrorism.
Even worse, the Bush Administration now uses FISA to get around the constitutional requirement of seeking a warrant before it eavesdrops on communications by the NSA.
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When I am elected to the Senate, I will demand an end to the abuse of FISA and a return to the checks and balances espoused by Frank Church and the Church Committee.
As a former Congressman, Frank Church staff member, and U.S. Army intelligence office, I will help lead the way back from the civil liberty abuses of this administration.
The secret warrantless wiretapping program was flat out wrong. The Bush administration went too far when it may not have even been necessary. Almost 99 percent of wiretapping applications were approved when they were submitted to judges. We must do all we can to ensure that our law enforcement and intelligence agencies have the necessary tools to protect our homeland but individual privacy and civil liberties must be protected because those are the freedoms we fight for. That is America. And I think we should be focused finding terrorists and not protecting corporate CEOs. I’m sure there was pressure from the Bush administration and that isn’t an enviable position to be in for a company but what is wrong is wrong and there must be accountability. When mistakes were made in my companies, I took responsibility, took action and solved the problems.
I was encouraged by news a few months ago that both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives passed new FISA bills with added privacy protections. Now Mitch McConnell and his Republican leadership in Washington need to work with Senate and House Democrats to finalize legislation that protects the safety, and freedoms, of all Americans. I hear this issue will be brought up again in the Senate sometime during the summer.
ME-Sen: Tom Allen (who just voted against it in the House)
As I have stated before, neither the government nor large telecommunications corporations are above the law; everyone must be held accountable. This ‘compromise’ fails to hold either the Bush administration or the telecommunications companies to the same standards that apply to other Americans.
The FISA bill we considered today would compromise the constitutionally guaranteed rights that make America a beacon of hope around the world.
Today’s vote was not easy. I stood up to leaders of my own party and voted against this bill, because I took an oath to defend Americans and our Constitution, and it was the right thing to do.
That duty is most important when it is most difficult. We can protect our nation while upholding our values, but unfortunately, this bill falls short.
Having lost my brother in the World Trade Center on 9/11, I am very sensitive to the importance of the U.S. intelligence community’s ability to effectively monitor foreign terrorist targets. However, our country must preserve our constitutional principles and such monitoring must be accomplished without compromising the civil liberties of American citizens. I am hopeful that Congress is on the verge of finally properly scrutinizing the Bush Administration’s warrantless surveillance programs, and can create reasonable legislation that provides our government the tools it needs to monitor legitimate international threats, while at the same time not compromising the personal liberties of law-abiding Americans. Members of congress must ensure that any surveillance of U.S Citizens be granted with the proper warrant. If they fail to accomplish this, then we will have lost something very sacred about America and what our system of values is supposed to provide for all Americans.
The provision for corporate immunity for the telecom companies who may have violated federal law is unacceptable and unfortunately another example of the Bush administration wanting the legislative branch to craft legislation that protects the executive branch from its own incompetance.
The bill will force federal district courts to immediately dismiss any cases against telecommunications companies that participated in illegal surveillance. This is unacceptable. The Constitution of the United States was violated. Over several years telecommunications companies turned over the records of millions of innocent Americans to the federal government without proper oversight and without a warrant.
The Bush Administration disregarded the Fourth Amendment when it authorized this surveillance and now Congress may provide the Administration and these companies a free pass. This is a mistake. The Senate is set to vote on the FISA bill this week. For the sake of our constitution and the foundation of our democracy, I urge all Senators to unite in opposition to this bill.
If I’m elected to the Senate, I will not hesitate to fight to protect our civil liberties and the laws this nation was founded upon.
I have spoken out against immunity for telecommunications companies throughout this campaign. Last February, I urged my supporters to sign a petition to pressure my opponent, Republican Senator Gordon Smith, to vote against the FISA bill that granted retroactive immunity for telecommunications companies.
Unfortunately, Gordon Smith voted in favor of granting retroactive immunity. I expect him to do the same when the Senate votes on this issue in the coming days. For years, the Bush Administration has been undermining the balance of powers. Checks and balances must be restored and a vote against the immunity bill would be a critical starting point.
On Christmas morning 2004, outside of Kabul, Afghanistan, my buddies and I drove to our base camp to use the computers. We wanted to be with our kids when they woke up that Christmas. To get there we drove through a near ambush–anytime we drove on the Jalalabad Road, it was risky, and we had an incident on our way.
That Christmas morning, I suspect the government listened to our conversations. They occurred between two countries; Afghanistan and the US. They probably didn’t realize the difference in tone in my voice as I spoke to my wife and children that morning as my heart raced still from our encounter on the road. My wife did.
I fought to defend our country and our constitution in Afghanistan. I fought for the right to privacy for every Texan. Mr. Cornyn must now stand up for the privacy of every Texan and American too. We as a nation cannot grant anyone sweeping amnesty if they violated the law.
Americans understand the need for safety and the need for intelligence gathering. What they will not accept is an abuse of power, of crossing the line on American’s privacy.
I would join Sen. Dodd in opposition to any retroactive provisions that allow a “get out of jail card” for violating the Constitution. If Mr. Cornyn had ever had the opportunity to have his Christmas conversation listened to by the government, on a day that he feared for his life in a convoy on Jalalabad Road, he would do the same.
Then there’s those whose names have been bandied about the blogosphere that we’d like to think they’d be opposed to Bush taking away the Fourth Amendment, but where I cannot find a single statement from them about this specific issue. Much help would be appreciated in figuring out exactly where they stand on FISA.
House
AZ-03: Bob Lord (nobody asked him in his diary two days ago?)
FL-18: Annette Taddeo
FL-21: Raul Martinez
FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas
IL-11: Debbie Halvorson
MD-01: Frank Kratovil
MN-02: Steve Sarvi
NE-02: Jim Esch
NM-02: Harry Teague
NM-03: Ben Ray Lujan (who even diaried here last week, but nobody asked him about FISA!)
NV-02: Jill Derby
NV-03: Dina Titus
OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy
OH-16: John Boccieri
TX-07: Michael Skelly
WV-02: Anne Barth
Senate
KS-Sen: Jim Slattery
MN-Sen: Al Franken (though he did write a satire piece about wiretapping)
MS-Sen: Ronnie Musgrove
NE-Sen: Scott Kleeb
And then there’s even some Democratic challengers who have come out in FAVOR of this FISA bill.
For his part, Adler released a statement today, underscoring his own support for reupping FISA “so that our intelligence community has the tools needed to keep America safe in a dangerous world. We must also protect the freedoms for which our troops have made so many courageous sacrifices.”
She was asked if she would have voted for, or against, the FISA bill this week which would have granted retroactive immunity to Telcos for felony violations of the current FISA law.
Ms. Hagan explained that she was against Telcos spying on Americans, but that she would have voted FOR the bill, and granted them immunity, but that future law breaking would not be tolerated.
And of course, Mark Udall running for the Senate in Colorado voted for this bill last week. And perception on the blogs seems to be that Mark Warner and Jeanne Shaheen would’ve supported this bill had they been in the Senate, so I’m not exactly holding my breath to hear statements from them against telecom immunity.
Now, some of the candidates above still have a contested primary to go, like in CO-02, where all three of them came out against it, even as the person they’re trying to replace, Mark Udall, voted for it. There’s other districts, like in AZ-01 and NY-21, where only that candidate has released a statement on FISA, and others haven’t seemed to. (I’m looking at you, Ann Kirkpatrick.) If you guys can find statements by them, please let me know in the comments.
The end of the first quarter brings news that bodes well for Democrats in Michigan. Congressional challengers Mark Schauer (MI-07) and Gary Peters (MI-09), both considered top contenders on the Red-To-Blue list, have ended the quarter with impressive fundraising totals.
Peters’ campaign reports that it raised over $346,000 for the first quarter, reaching roughly $748,000 total for the cycle. Furthermore, in sharp contrast to the GOP’s reliance on large-scale wealthy donors and multinational corporations, 90% of Peters’ donations came from within the Wolverine State, and 94% came from individuals. Nearly 2,000 individual contributors signed on by the end of the quarter, reinforcing the growing power of small donations from individuals via the Internet, a trend that will undoubtedly shape elections going forward.
Schauer’s numbers reflect a similar trend, as his campaign announced that it has raised more than $326,000 in the quarter, and more than $900,000 total to date. 86% of that total came from in-state donors, and, during this quarter, the campaign saw 1,000 new individuals contribute.
Always encouraging to hear news like this, especially from districts in a crucial swing state!
I would also like to note that Walberg’s fellow GOP Congressman, Joe Knollenberg (MI-09), also voted against H.R. 5351. Republicans. Argh!
At some point this week, Vice President Dick Cheney is scheduled to make an appearance in a suburb of Battle Creek to raise funds for Rep. Tim Walberg. It's no surprise that these two Republicans will share the stage; just a few short days ago, Walberg voted “nay” to the Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation Tax Act (H.R. 5351), a bill that would lower gas prices and reduce American dependence on oil from the Middle East. Why on earth would a congressman from Michigan, a state whose economy has been especially wounded by the wrongheaded policies of the Bush administration, vote against the economic interests of his constituents? For the same reason that GOP congresspersons cheat their constituents every time; money. And apparently, ExxonMobil is one of the prominent contributors to Walberg's campaign.
Walberg is a textbook example of what the Republican party has become; he hoodwinked his constituents into voting for him by getting them all worked up over the social/religious issues. Once he entered Congress, he became a shill for Big Oil and other moneyed interests, at the expense of the people he is supposed to represent. So, I certainly hope that Cheney's visit to Michigan serves as a giant motivator . . . for progressives to donate to Mark Schauer's campaign, so that the residents of the 7th District can actually be, you know, represented.
Today we’re excited to announce that our campaign raised more than $427,000 in the second quarter, which breaks the previous fundraising record we set earlier this year. Combined with the last three quarters when Sen. Schauer outraised incumbent Tim Walberg, we have brought in more than $1.33 million and have more than $928,000 cash on hand.
