CA-02: Race Tightens amid Debate Cancellations & Alzheimer’s Rumors

Wally Herger, the Republican 24 year incumbent in CA-02, is not doing himself any favors by repeatedly refusing debates with his Democratic opponent Jim Reed, and may only be encouraging the idea that Herger has something to hide.

According to the Reed campaign’s internal polling released by email, the race has tightened from a 14 point lead by Herger to just under a 2 point lead.

In the past month the race has revolved around Herger’s uncharacteristic refusal to debate his opponent and Reed’s open speculation over rumors that Herger is suffering from the early onset of Alzheimer’s disease.

While it has become common in the current election cycle for a Republican to avoid risk, refuse debates and only speak to supporters, this race has taken an unusual turn, as the challenger has refused to acquiesce in frustrated silence.

Herger, who has willingly debated opponents in past elections, initially refused to debate his primary Tea Party challenger, Col. Pete Stiglich.  Though he did promise future debates against his Democratic opponent, he then refused Reed’s offer of a series of 3 contests during the Congressional recess in August and September.

The Shasta County Tea Party, after meeting with Reed, also offered to sponsor their own debate to draw Herger out, but Herger again refused.

Pete Stiglich even offered his own editorial chiding Herger for not debating the Democrat.

During a September 28th Progressive News Radio interview,  candidate Jim Reed was asked about a recent C-Span video of a Ways and Means Committee discussion of the Chinese Yuan where Herger went off topic for six minutes to read an unrelated diatribe about taxes. Citing other odd behaviors as well as rumors brought up to him by two Republicans early in the campaign that Herger was in the early stage of Alzheimer’s, Reed expressed sympathy for anyone so afflicted and suggested the only way to dispel such rumors was to agree to a debate.  The interview was posted on Reed’s website.

When Herger canceled two days before an October 6th debate scheduled two months prior by the League of Women Voters and the Chico Enterprise Record, the Chico ER decried Herger’s tactic of  “Campaigning From the Couch,” saying:

Our view: When politicians don’t have to debate before an election, it’s not good for democracy. Jim Reed will drive three hours from his home in Fall River Mills to speak at a candidates forum tonight in Chico. Wally Herger, the other candidate, won’t drive across town to do so.

And, with that public pressure, Herger relented and scheduled a debate for October 25th.

After a representative from Herger’s office read a brief statement at the candidate’s forum, Jim Reed expressed skepticism that the October 25th debate would actually occur, saying:

Wally Herger and I have a debate scheduled for October 25th, to be televised on KIXE. I am absolutely convinced that wouldn’t have happened but for a newspaper article that came out from a Chico paper last week that identified some unusual behavior and suggested that maybe he’s not willing to debate Reed because he has an illness, perhaps  Alzheimer’s.  The next day, we had a debate [scheduled].  Now that was the right thing for Wally to do because the easiest way to just get rid of a rumor like that, a terrible rumor, and that’s a terrible disease, is to debate.  But the problem with choosing October 25th for that debate is, it should have been today.   If on October 25th he finds an excuse why he can’t be there, he gets called back to Washington, there’s just not enough time to reschedule it. So, and it even suggests that maybe this is a ploy that he never intended to debate at all if he doesn’t show up on October 25th. So anyway, let’s stay tuned, I truly hope he will.

Without commenting on Herger’s mental state, Herger’s campaign manager, Dave Gilliard, demanded an apology, calling Reed’s statements “the lowest, most vile attack I’ve ever seen.” He threatened to cancel the debate unless Reed removed the links from his website.

Reed said he had nothing to apologize for, again suggesting that Herger was using any excuse to duck a debate and concluding,

I wasn’t the one that brought it up. The rumors are out there and everyone is hearing about it. We were discussing it.

And so yet another debate was canceled until an apology was forthcoming, provoking a follow-up editorial in the Redding Searchlight Record, decrying both Reed’s tactics and Herger’s umbrage, saying the voters deserved both an end to cheap shots and a debate.

Reed, who still refuses to remove the radio interview from his website and apparently prizes a shot at a public debate above all else, apologized to Herger on October 13th at a joint appearance in Red Bluff.

Herger refused the apology, saying:

I’ve always been taught that you don’t reward outlandish behavior and I don’t think it would be proper to reward him.

Reed, unsurprised, said that despite the apology he had no expectation that Herger would back down, concluding that Herger would come up with “any little excuse” not to debate.

In the light of his falling poll numbers Herger might want to reconsider his recalcitrance. He may be coming off as more petulant than principled, and a debate is hardly a reward for good behavior, but rather a forum to freely air differences and directly confront allegations on both sides.

After all, politics is rough and occasionally nasty business.  Did Meg Whitman refuse to debate over a sexist slur?  

 

SSP Daily Digest: 10/14 (Afternoon Edition)

AK-Sen: The story of how his employment with the city of Fairbanks ended is one of the key reasons why Joe Miller suddenly clammed up and said he wouldn’t answer questions about his personal background anymore. Now the city’s former mayor, Jim Whitaker, is offering his version of the story, saying Miller is “not truthful” about it. Whitaker says Miller’s use of borough resources for political purposes (namely, for gaming an online vote for state party chair in a Sarah Palin-orchestrated party coup) was a violation of borough ethics policy and it would have been a cause for termination if they hadn’t been so understaffed. Miller eventually resigned in 2009 anyway, partly because his request to go elk hunting got denied.

FL-Sen: There are so many Kennedys I really can’t keep track which one is allied with who, but any time one leaves the reservation it’s interesting. Robert Kennedy Jr. announced that he’s backing Charlie Crist for Senate, saying that Kendrick Meek can’t win and the most important thing is blocking Marco Rubio. Meanwhile, with the current race not looking very interesting anymore, PPP has its eye on 2012 (which seems like it could be close, especially if Jeb Bush gets involved). They ran two other hypotheticals, one not very likely: Bill Nelson beats Rush Limbaugh 50-36 (if Limbaugh for whatever reason decided to take the huge pay cut). More plausibly, he also beats Rep. Connie Mack IV by 42-33.

LA-Sen: Charlie Melancon is out with an internal poll from Anzalone-Liszt. Public pollsters have generally seen this as a double-digit race, but his poll, taken over Oct. 9-12, gives David Vitter a not-overwhelming 49-42 lead. The campaign says that’s a major improvement (no specific numbers, though) over their September poll.

FL-Gov: The Florida Education Association (obviously a Democratic-leaning organization) polled the gubernatorial race, and found numbers very close to PPP’s results yesterday. The poll from Tom Eldon, taken Oct. 9-12, gives Alex Sink a 47-41 lead over Rick Scott. Scott’s faves are down to 33/50.

IL-Gov: This is quite the screwup: Green candidate Rich Whitney’s name will appear as “Rich Whitey” on electronic voting machines in nearly two dozen wards in Chicago (half of which are predominantly African-American). And that leads inevitably to the question (to quote the Illinois Nazi Party): “Well, what are you going to do about it, Whitey?” Apparently, he can’t do much, as there isn’t adequate time left to reprogram and test the machines, although he’s looking into various legal options.

AZ-07: I don’t know if there’s any hard evidence other than a Magellan poll and a McClung internal to prove there’s a real race here, but judging by efforts by some organizations on both sides, something’s going on. The Progressive Change Campaign Committee had members make 21,000 phone calls to the district to shore up Raul Grijalva, while Americans for Tax Reform is going to spend $230K on advertising in the district, hitting Grijalva with an ad for encouraging a boycott of his state in the wake of SB 1070.

CA-44: Like CA-03, this is one offense opportunity in California that still seems to be alive and kicking. The Bill Hedrick campaign, short on cash but facing an underwhelming opponent that he nearly knocked off last time, is out with a Zata|3 internal poll showing Hedrick trailing GOP incumbent Ken Calvert by only a 48-43 margin (improved a 49-38 showing in September).

GA-08: He made it implicit with his most recent ad (distancing himself from Nancy Pelosi, even going so far as to show 60s-era San Francisco hippies), but Jim Marshall is now explicitly joining Bobby Bright in the camp of incumbents saying they won’t support Pelosi for Speaker in the next Congress (if they’re there for it).

IA-03: I didn’t think I’d be saying this a few months ago, but Leonard Boswell is starting to look like he’s in healthy shape for the election, thanks in large part of a variety of damaging details about Brad Zaun that went public. Boswell leads Zaun 47-38 in an internal from his campaign, taken Oct. 3-5 by Anzalone-Liszt.

IL-10: Bob Dold sure can rake in the fundraising dollars, even if Bob Dold can’t seem to come up with a lead in the polls, in what’s looking like one of the Dems’ few pickups this cycle. Bob Dold raised $843K in the third quarter and is sitting on $979K CoH, enough to start running two broadcast ads this week, while Bob Dold’s opponent Dan Seals has yet to release any numbers. Bob Dold!

MD-01, VA-02, VA-05: Another testament to the unpredictability of elections: even a few months ago, who’d have thought, that at this point, the DCCC would have cut loose Debbie Halvorson and Steve Kagen, but would be keeping on pumping money into the races of Frank Kratovil and Tom Perriello? Those two, along with Glenn Nye, are among the survivors of the triage process and will receive continued ad buys.

NH-02: This race is also turning out to be close, and this can’t help Charlie Bass this close to the election: questions are emerging about a stock buy (in New England Wood Pellet, his nephew-in-law’s company) that he made while in Congress the previous time. He then set up a meeting between company officials and Bush administration officials, which is a potential House ethics violation.

OH-01: Credit Steve Driehaus for having some fire in the belly. After having gotten thrown onto the bring-out-your-dead cart by the DCCC, instead of just shrugging and starting to look for a lobbying job, he’s doubling down on his fundraising efforts, using it as an incentive to ask for more from his supporters. In particular, he’s pissed that the DCCC let him go even while giving money to various Reps. who voted “no” on health care reform.

OR-04: Well, here’s one more race to add to the watch list. Peter DeFazio hasn’t faced credible opposition in… well, ever. And he’s still not facing credible opposition this year (Art Robinson is kind of a clown; his main action item seems to be the elimination of public schooling, which would kind of help him out considerably, since his day job is selling curriculum supplies for home schoolers). Nevertheless, the mysterious group Concerned Taxpayers (who’ve also made a six-digit ad buy against DeFazio) is out with an internal poll from Oct. 4-5 from Wilson Research showing a single-digit race, with DeFazio leading Robinson 48-42. (MoE is a hefty 5.6%.)

PA-10: Chris Carney is on the wrong end of a Critical Insights poll of his district (which will be in our Poll Roundup later), but he’s already getting out in front of it with an internal poll. The Oct. 12-13 poll from Momentum Analysis has Carney leading Tom Marino 48-41. With both candidates able to point to leads not just in internal polls but public polls too, this is quite definitely a “Tossup.”

TN-08: Whew! One last internal. Not much surprise here… GOPer Stephen Fincher has an internal out giving him a double-digit lead in the open seat race against Roy Herron, very similar to yesterday’s 47-37 Penn/Hill poll. The Tarrance Group poll from Oct. 11-12 gives Fincher a 47-36 lead (with 3 to indie Donn James).

FL-AG: This is one of the higher-profile downballot races around, and it gets a fair amount of polling attention too. This time, it’s Susquehanna’s turn (on behalf of Sunshine State News), and they give a lead to Republican Hillsborough Co. Prosecutor Pam Bondi, who leads state Sen. Dan Gelber 50-42.

Money: Zata|3 is out with more of their super-helpful charts on the behind-the-scenes money game, which is where the Republicans are really winning this cycle, even more so than the polls. Compared with 2008, spending on Senate races (from both sides) has nearly doubled, and it’s up more than 50% on House races. And Republican groups are leading the way: the top 5, and 8 of the top 10, outside groups, spending-wise are GOP-leaning. That starts with the cash-flush RGA ($12 mil so far), followed by the Chamber of Commerce and American Crossroads.

Polltopia: You may have already seen the new Pew study on cellphone use, but it’s a real eye-opener, one that should cast some measure of doubt on the accuracy of current polls or even the whole sense that polls can tell us anything. Pew, which in 2008 found a certain amount of pro-Republican bias in polls because of the exclusion of cellphone-only users, is out with a new round of polling showing that bias has only increased. At this point, nearly 25% of adults are “cell-only.” Pew finds a 5-point Republican increase would have occurred in their most recent generic ballot test if they hadn’t polled cellphones.

Also, on the polling front, Daily Kos is taking a page from PPP and asking where readers what gubernatorial and House race they’d like to see polled in the coming weeks.

SSP TV:

AK-Sen: This is actually kind of funny: Joe Miller spoofs Old Spice ads in an attempt to get voters to not write in Lisa Murkowski

CO-Sen: Ken Buck’s out with a base-rallying ad using speech footage of him getting teabaggers fired up about how they got ignored for the last two years and are now out for blood; the NRSC is also on the air, hitting Michael Bennet over his support for the stimulus

MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan’s new TV spot pushes back against various Roy Blunt negative ads, especially on the subject of an extended family member’s wind farm

PA-Sen: This may be an interesting tea leaf that those Dem internals yesterday may be showing some actual tightening: the NRSC, after letting surrogate orgs do all the work here, is finally having to step in with its own IE ad (a basic HCR/stimulus/cap-and-trade troika)

WV-Sen: The DSCC goes after John Raese again over the minimum wage

CA-Gov: What is this, the 80s? Meg Whitman’s new ad hits Jerry Brown for being soft on crime

TX-Gov: Bill White’s newest ad goes after Rick Perry’s seeming habit of steering state contracts to cronies

Rasmussen:

AK-Sen: Scott McAdams (D) 27%, Joe Miller (R) 35%, Lisa Murkowski (WI-inc) 34%

CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%

IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 40%, Bill Brady (R) 46%, Scott Lee Cohen (I) 4%, Rich Whitney (G) 2%

NC-Sen: Elaine Marshall (D) 38%, Richard Burr (R-inc) 52%

PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 39%, Pat Toomey (R) 49%

WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 42%, Scott Walker (R) 51%

CT-Sen: Back to Double Digits in Quinnipiac

Quinnipiac (10/7-11, likely voters, 9/21-26 in parens):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 54 (49)

Linda McMahon (R): 43 (46)

Undecided 3 (4)

(MoE: ±2.9%)

Remember back when everyone got all in a tizzy because Quinnipiac suddenly saw the Connecticut Senate race collapse to a 3-point lead for Richard Blumenthal? Of course, that panic lasted about a week before about half a dozen polls in two days showed that it was really a double-digit race. Well, Quinnipiac’s back, and they too find that it’s now a double-digit race, with Blumenthal up 11, and at the 54% mark. Blumenthal’s favorables are 57/38, compared to McMahon’s 46/46. Qpac’s head Douglas Schwartz, in the poll writeup, muses “Linda McMahon may have peaked too soon and her advertising saturation could be causing ‘McMahon fatigue.'” (I suppose that sounds better than saying “Uh, yeah, that was an outlier.”)

OK, that’s not entirely fair to Quinnipiac, because there’s a lot of anecdotal evidence to that effect. In fact, it’s the story on the front page of the New York Times today, focusing on McMahon’s inability to connect with female voters, and the mind-numbing ad overkill (echoes of Meg Whitman here?) is a big part of that. Of course, the more relevant NYT story might be that they also just endorsed Blumenthal, despite their hatchet job on him earlier. They did (correctly, I’m afraid) describe him as “charm-free, though.

Also, despite McMahon’s attempts to steer the discussion toward lunchpail issues, the story seems to be steering back toward her unpleasant tenure as head of the WWE, as seen in a new spate of news stories today, especially from the major in-state newspaper, the Hartford Courant, focusing on steroid and prescription drug abuse in the WWE. The DSCC is also fanning the flames, launching a new TV ad that’s probably their harshest attack yet on the WWE years (maybe they were saving the best for last).

StephenCLE’s Senate/Governor Rankings – October 14

Welcome to StephenCLE’s Senate & Governor Rankings for October 14:

The Senate picture has stabilized to a degree, but the prospects still look grim here for Team Blue.  Team Red has a strong lead in many seats that are currently democratic.  Because the democrats have improved in several races close to the borderline, it’s now going to be difficult for the Republicans to take over the Senate outright, but a tie at 50-50 is very feasible.  I’ve heard the words “Pacific Firewall” used to describe the democrats’ last line of defense, and it is true, as Patty Murray and Barbara Boxer’s seats in Washington and California, either one of which could be the mystical 10th seat to flip control, are both clearly leaning democratic right now.  The open seat in Connecticut now appears to be firmly out of reach.

First off, to the map:

US Senate 2010 - October 14

Senate Math:

Current Senate – 59 Democrats, 41 Republicans

New Senate – 52 Democrats, 48 Republicans

Swing – Republicans +7

Pickups (listed in order of likelihood)

Dem pickups – none

Rep pickups – North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Colorado, West Virginia,

Ratings Commentary:

At this point, I think we can say that the democrats are unlikely to pick up any republican controlled seats.  The two seats that appeared to be the best opportunities for most of the year, Ohio and Missouri, have drifted away from the democrats.  New Hampshire is still somewhat competitive, as is Kentucky, and something tells me that North Carolina might not be totally out of the woods either because of Burr’s crappy favorables, but it’s a longshot that any seats go from red to blue right now.  That means it’s simply a matter of counting up the seats that will go from blue to red.  Here are those seats.

1.North Dakota – This one’s a lock.  

2.Arkansas – This seat is virtually gone as well.  Blanche had a poll showing her down just 9 about a week ago, but if your internals have you down almost double digits…

3.Indiana – I really thought this one would be more competitive by now, but Ellsworth has been a major disappointment and Coats is getting a pass because of the environment.

4.Wisconsin – This seat has leaped up to fourth on the list, as Feingold was caught totally napping, and Ron Johnson now appears likely to win this seat.  There’s still time left, but virtually everybody has an opinion of Feingold, so it’s not going to be easy to turn around.  His vote against Financial Regulation was a killer in my opinion.

5.Pennsylvania – This race is showing signs of tightening, as internal polling put Sestak ahead last week, and some other empirical evidence, such as the NRSC jumping in with an ad buy today, suggests that this race has tightened to under 5 points.  Sestak still has work to do here, but as a newcomer with a track record of closing strong, this one could be interesting.  

6.Colorado – This race is still close as well.  Buck leads in most polls, but Bennet had several put him ahead last week.  I still think Buck is going to win it barring any mistakes down the stretch, but Bennet has himself in decent position to survive.  

7.West Virginia – Joe Manchin would be winning big in just about any other cycle, but hatred of Obama and the national democrats is running so high in WV that John Raese is either barely ahead or tied in most polling.  This could go either way.  I could see a hidden democratic vote coming out in the end a la the PA-12 special last year, or Raese gaining the support of conservative democrats and putting it away.  Tough call here.  Right now, this one’s barely red because of the partisan lean of WV in national elections

——————————————————————————————————————————————–

8.Illinois – This begins the start of the blue column, and it’s a cliffhanger right now between Giannoulias and Kirk.  What we’re seeing in IL right now is a gradual “coming home” of Democrats to the democratic candidates, and if this continues, Giannoulias should win this one because of IL’s partisan lean.  It’s going to be a sloggy mess the rest of the way though.  

9.Nevada – This one is almost interchangeable with Illinois.  Polling shows a virtual toss-up here between Harry Reid and Sharron Angle.  It’s a battle of the unfavorable, and while undecideds supposedly break for the challenger, polling has had a republican bias in Nevada the last few cycles.  GOTV might decide this one, and because of that, my money is on Reid to survive.  

10.Washington – This seat is basically the seat of Rassmussen driving a narrative.  He’s really the only pollster that has ever had Rossi ahead of Murray, and now the polling average has Murray up by 6-7 points.  It’s very hard for me to see Murray losing to an already 2-time statewide loser that hasn’t put up better than 48% in any poll I’ve seen this cycle.  

11.California – California appears to be moving away from most republican candidates right now.  Fiorina would really need a strong finish and probably a gaffe from Boxer to come back and win.  

12.Connecticut – This is the last seat, theoretically, that Team Red has a shot at, but again, with McMahon’s favorables in the crapper, you’d need a gaffe or two from Blumenthal to put this race back into the competitive zone.  

2010 Senate Big Board (as of October 13)

Solid Dem – 6 seats

Hawaii (Inouye)

Maryland (Mikulski)

New York (Schumer)

New York (Gillibrand)

Oregon (Wyden)

Vermont (Leahy)

Likely Dem – 2 seats

Connecticut (Blumenthal)

Delaware (Open)

Lean Dem – 2 seats

California (Boxer)

Washington (Murray)

Toss Up – 5 seats

Nevada (Reid)

Colorado (Open)

Illinois (Open)

Pennsylvania (Open)

West Virginia (Manchin)

Lean Rep – 5 seats

Kentucky (Open)

Missouri (Open)

New Hampshire (Open)

North Carolina (Burr)

Wisconsin (Feingold)

Likely Rep – 7 seats

Alaska (Open)

Georgia (Isakson)

Arkansas (Lincoln)

Florida (Open)

Indiana (Open)

Louisiana (Vitter)

Ohio (Open)

Solid Rep – 10 seats

Arizona (McCain)

Alabama (Shelby)

Idaho (Crapo)

Iowa (Grassley)

Kansas (Open)

North Dakota (Open)

Oklahoma (Coburn)

South Carolina (Demint)

South Dakota (Thune)

Utah (Open)

On the gubernatorial side of things, fortunes actually appear to be improving for Team Blue, and in several key states as far as redistricting is concerned.  The overall picture appears to be that of the democrats taking over blue state governorships, republicans the red state governorships, and the GOP getting some of the swing state ones too.  

Current Governors – 26 democrats, 24 republicans

New Governors – 21 democrats, 29 republicans

Swing – Republicans +5

Pickups (listed in order of likelihood)

Dem Pickups – Rhode Island, Connecticut, Minnesota, Hawaii, California, Florida, Vermont

Rep Pickups – Wyoming, Kansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Iowa, Alaska, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Illinois, Ohio

The Map:

US Governors 2010 - October 14

Most of the governor races are clear-cut, with very few real toss-ups on the board.  Probably the closest races overall are two races that lean slightly GOP, Illinois and Ohio.  In Illinois, Pat Quinn has rallied and is trailing Bill Brady by only a few points, in a state in which it’s hard to imagine many undecideds going for the extremely conservative Brady.  A victory for Quinn would give democrats control of the redistricting trifecta in Illinois, but because of how concentrated the democratic vote is there, I’m not sure how valuable that would be.  It might be possible to eliminate Biggert & Roskam though.  Ohio is another close race as Ted Strickland has closed to within a few points of John Kasich, and again here, it appears that most of the remaining undecideds are people that supported the democrats in 2006 and 2008.  This race is big as a victory for Strickland (or a hold of the Ohio House) would undo the republican gerrymander of the state’s congressional seats.  

One democratic-leaning seat that is somewhat in danger still is California, where Jerry Brown currently leads but is facing a bit of bad publicity at the moment.  A victory would give the democrats the trifecta here, although that could be nullified by the passage of a fair districts initiative also on the ballot.  Florida is another state in which the democrat is leading and a lot is on the line in terms of redistricting.  Florida has a hideous republican gerrymander, and an Alex Sink victory would do away with that.  There is a fair districts initiative on the ballot here too, but unlike in California, it looks likely to fail, making it imperative that Sink get the win over corrupt Rick Scott.

Pennsylvania and Texas are two other states in which big state gerrymandering looms large, but in both of these states it appears that the GOP is on their way to a victory.  Pennsylvania could still be saved with a retention of the Pennsylvania House, while the democrats would have to take over the Texas House to stave off a gerrymander, which is much less likely than defeating Rick Perry is.

2010 Governors Big Board (as of October 13)

Solid Dem – 4 seats

Arkansas

New Hampshire

New York

Rhode Island

Likely Dem – 2 seats

Colorado

Connecticut

Lean Dem – 5 seats

California

Hawaii

Maryland

Massachusetts

Minnesota

Toss Up – 7 seats

Florida

Illinois

Maine

New Mexico

Ohio

Oregon

Vermont

Lean Rep – 5 seats

Georgia

Pennsylvania

South Carolina

Texas

Wisconsin

Likely Rep – 5 seats

Alaska

Arizona

Iowa

Michigan

Nevada

Solid Rep – 9 seats

Alabama

Idaho

Kansas

Nebraska

Oklahoma

South Dakota

Tennessee

Utah

Wyoming

SSP Daily Digest: 10/14 (Morning Edition)

What would you do without the Daily Digests?

  • MO-Sen: Republican media trackers tell Politico that the DSCC has cancelled $1.3 million worth of ad buys in Kansas City and St. Louis for the final week before the election. The DS tried to push back, saying that “decisions are made on a week-to-week basis,” but as Swingnuts well know, cancelling early reservations now subjects you to forfeiting deposits – and means you have to pay higher rates if you decide to go back in later. In other words, late cancellations are not made lightly.
  • WV-Sen: John Raese has one simple request. And that is to have sharks with frickin’ laser beams attached to their heads!
  • NV-Sen: So maybe some of that cash earmarked for Missouri is going to Nevada instead. On the heels of Sharron Angle’s eye-bursting $14 million haul, the DSCC is making its first ad reservations in the Silver State, apparently for a million bucks a week.
  • GA-Gov: Wow, Nathan Deal really is the epitome of the corrupt scumbag who thinks the purposes of getting elected to public office is to use his position for personal gain. As the AP explains: “While in Congress, Republican Nathan Deal lobbied Georgia’s attorney general and top state environmental officials to allow the development of a landfill that he and his business partner wanted next to their auto salvage yard….” Note that though this involves Deal’s auto salvage business, this is actually a different scandal from the one which inspired him to resign from Congress (there, he had lobbied the state from his perch in the House to preserve a questionable vehicle inspection program from which he profited immensely).
  • NY-Gov: For the trouble of offering a half-assed, bullshit, “I’m sorry if you were offended” non-apology, Carl Paladino has now lost the backing of the right-wing rabbi, Yehuda Levin, who helped pen the anti-gay speech which got Paladino into such hot water to begin with.
  • Relatedly, a truly awesome catch by Politico’s Maggie Haberman: She digs waaay deep to link a story at the Orthodox-oriented news blog Voz Iz Neias (Yiddish for “What’s News?”) about Paladino’s flubbed outreach in the Orthodox community. Though it’s getting far less play than his homophobic outburst, Paladino also attacked a bunch of big-time rebbes (Hasidic leaders) for supposedly being suckered into going soft on the libruhl Andrew Cuomo (who had also done the ritual meet-and-greets in Hasidic communities). Several prominent rabbis are now rebuking Paladino for waltzing on to their turf and making such presumptuous accusations against some of their own. So not only did Paladino piss off half the state thanks to this trip, he pissed off the very people he was trying to win over! In a word: fail.

  • CA-03: There aren’t a whole lot of bright spots these days, but one of them is definitely Dan Lungren. The former state AG managed to win in 2008 against a badly underfunded opponent with less than 50% of the vote, and has been getting his ass kicked in fundraising literally every quarter this cycle by Ami Bera. So with his back against the wall, Karl Rove is coming to the rescue. American Crossroads/Crossroads GPS is launching ads in the district on Friday, but NWOTSOTB as yet.
  • CA-45: You know I’m a ratfucking fetishist, so of course it warms my heart to hear that Dem Steve Pougnet is doing his best to prop up teabagger Bill Lussenheide. He’s targeting Republicans with robocalls that say Lussenheide is the “true conservative” – but he’s also sending out mailers to the same households describing him as “extreme” and “dangerous” while calling Rep. Mary Bono Mack a “raging liberal.” I imagine the idea is that what’s “extreme” and “dangerous” to normal people is actually appealing to crazies. I also love the fact that Bono Mack’s people whined that this was a “dirty trick” – just shows they are a bunch of weenies who don’t know how to fight.
  • LA-02: Man, it seems like most pols in Louisiana care about party loyalty as much as the writers of LOST cared about not pissing off their fans after six fucking years of slavishly watching that goddamn… uh, where was I? Oh yeah, state Rep. Juan LaFonta, who got pasted in the Democratic primary by Cedric Richmond, has decided to endorse Republican Rep. Joe Cao for re-election. This does not seem like the winning move to me. (And screw you, J. J. Abrams!)
  • OH-09: This comment has the flavor of Star Trek nerds debating whether Captain Picard ever wore the Federation dress uniform while on the bridge of the Enterprise D during season 4… only, except, you know, this guy is actually trying to be serious. Rich Iott’s spokesbot pleaded with Politico to understand that no, it was an SS uniform, not a NAZI uniform! I’m sure that will please John Boehner, who, as it turns out, gave $5,000 to Iott last month. Think he wants his Reichsmarks back?
  • PA-03: Paging Mark Twain… Mark Twain to the white courtesy phone. The AFSCME evidently thinks that rumors of Kathy Dahlkemper’s demise are at least somewhat exaggerated, since they’re dropping $350K on ads on her behalf. Triage is a tricky business.
  • WI-08: Aaron Blake tweets that the DCCC is “pulling out” of the 8th CD, but as is often the case, the picture is more nuanced. First off, AFSCME just dropped $750K here (to which Blake alludes). Secondly, Kagen is personally wealthy. In fact, in 2008, he was the 28th-richest member of the House, with a net worth of anywhere between $7 and $20 million. Hopefully his investments haven’t taken too bad of hit the last couple of years and he can still afford to spend large (he gave his campaign almost $900K last cycle).
  • SSP TV:

    • GA-08: Jim Marshall’s anti-Pelosi ad actually has hippies in it – for reals
    • NY-20: Fuck yes – Scott Murphy’s latest lacerates Chris Gibson for supporting repeal of the healthcare reform bill. Murphy, like Earl Pomeroy, knows the only way to win is to go loud and proud
    • TN-04: Lincoln Davis lacerates Scott DesJarlais for reportedly threatening his ex-wife with a gun – and threatening to kill himself. Stories like this were a big reason why Don Sherwood and Randy Kuhl both lost
    • ID-01: On behalf of Walt Minnick, the mother of a woman murdered by her abuser hits Raul Labrador for his failure to support laws that would protect women in abusive relationships
    • MA-06: Republican Bill Hudak hits Rep. John Tierney on a story we’ve been somewhat remiss in covering here: namely, his wife’s recent guilty plea for tax fraud. By referring to “Tierney’s family,” the ad makes it sound like Tierney himself was involved, but Hudak gets away with this legerdemain because the wife’s brother (family by marriage, I suppose) was also involved. The ad is only running on cable (Hudak had less than $100K on hand at the end of August)

    Independent Expenditures:

    • America’s Families First Action Fund: Sounds like a GOP group, but it’s actually Dem to the bone: $80K against David Schweikert (AZ-05); $403K against David Rivera (FL-25); $94K on mail against Bob Dold! (FL-25); $200K against Randy Hultgren (IL-14)
    • EMILY: $520K against Tom Ganley (OH-13); $212K against Cory Gardner (CO-04); $20K against Frank Guinta (NH-01)
    • NEA: $1.4 million against Ken Buck (CO-Sen); $306K against Harold Johnson (NC-08)
    • Realtors: $450K for Jim Gerlach (PA-06)
    • SEIU: $100K on radio ads for Cedric Richmond (LA-02); smaller amounts in MI-07 & IL-17
    • VoteVets: $325K cable buy against Pat Toomey (PA-Sen); $31K buy against Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08); $296K for Harry Reid (NV-Sen)

    Poll Roundup: 10/13

    I’m your poll pusher. 19 new ones:

  • AZ-Sen: Behavior Research Center (10/1-10, likely voters):

    Rodney Glassman (D): 22

    John McCain (R-inc): 56

    (MoE: ±4.7%)

  • DE-Sen: SurveyUSA for the University of Delaware Center for Political Communication (10/11-12, likely voters):

    Chris Coons (D): 54

    Christine O’Donnell (R): 33

    Undecided: 9

    (MoE: ±2.1%)

    Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/8-12, likely voters, 9/17-21 in parens):

    Chris Coons (D): 57 (55)

    Christine O’Donnell (R): 38 (39)

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

  • FL-Sen: Quinnipiac (10/6-10, likely voters, 9/23-28 in parens):

    Kendrick Meek (D): 22 (18)

    Marco Rubio (R): 44 (46)

    Charlie Crist (I): 30 (33)

    (MoE: ±3%)

    Susquehanna (10/6-10, likely voters, 9/2-7 in parens):

    Kendrick Meek (D): 22 (23)

    Marco Rubio (R): 45 (43)

    Charlie Crist (I): 29 (29)

    (MoE: ±2.9%)

  • NV-Sen: Suffolk (10/7-11, likely voters):

    Harry Reid (D-inc): 45

    Sharron Angle (R): 43

    Scott Ashjian (T): 2

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

  • PA-Sen: Bennett Petts and Normington for Joe Sestak (10/4-6, likely voters):

    Joe Sestak (D): 45

    Pat Toomey (R): 46

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

  • WA-Sen: Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/8-12, likely voters, 9/10-14 in parens):

    Patty Murray (D-inc): 51 (53)

    Dino Rossi (R): 43 (44)

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

  • WI-Sen, WI-Gov: Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/8-12, likely voters, 9/17-21 in parens):

    Russ Feingold (D-inc): 44 (45)

    Ron Johnson (R): 52 (41)

    Tom Barrett (D): 44 (42)

    Scott Walker (R): 52 (53)

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

  • WV-Sen: Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/8-12, likely voters):

    Joe Manchin (D): 44

    John Raese (R): 44

    Jesse Johnson (MP): 5

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

  • RI-Gov: Quest Research (10/4-6, likely voters, 9/15-17 in parens):

    Frank Caprio (D):  37 (36)

    Lincoln Chafee (I): 33 (24)

    John Robitaille (R): 22 (13)

    Ken Block (M): 2 (2)

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

  • CA-11: Lake Research Partners for Jerry McNerney (9/21-25, likely voters):

    Jerry McNerney (D-inc): 45

    David Harmer (R): 35

    David Christensen (AIP): 5

    (MoE: ±4.4)

  • GA-02: Public Opinion Strategies for Mike Keown (9/27-28, likely voters, August in parens):

    Sanford Bishop (D-inc): 47 (50)

    Mike Keown (R): 46 (44)

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

  • NJ-12: Monmouth University (10/9-12, likely voters):

    Rush Holt! (D): 51

    Scott Sipprelle (R): 46

    (MoE: ±3.9%)

  • NY-01: Siena (10/6-11, likely voters):

    Tim Bishop (D-inc): 51

    Randy Altschuler (R): 39

    (MoE: ±4%)

  • NY-19: Siena (10/5-10, likely voters):

    John Hall (D-inc): 43

    Nan Hayworth (R): 46

    (MoE: ±4%)

  • NY-23: Siena (10/5-7, likely voters):

    Bill Owens (D-inc): 42

    Matt Doheny (R): 31

    Doug Hoffman (C): 15

    After Hoffman voters told he suspended campaign/endorsed Doheny:

    Bill Owens (D-inc): 44

    Matt Doheny (R): 39

    Doug Hoffman (C): 1

    (MoE: ±4%)

  • PA-11: Franklin & Marshall College for Times-Shamrock Newspapers (10/5-10, likely voters):

    Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 40

    Lou Barletta (R): 47

    (MoE: ±4.8%)

  • PA-12: Susquehanna for the Tribune-Review (10/9-10, likely voters):

    Mark Critz (D-inc): 43

    Tim Burns (R): 36

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

  • FL-Gov: Sink Stops Leaking, Floats Back Up

    Public Policy Polling (10/9-10, likely voters, 8/21-22 in parentheses):

    Alex Sink (D): 46 (36)

    Rick Scott (R): 41 (30)

    Undecided: 14 (22)

    (MoE: ±4.6%)

    How I feel about this race seems to change weekly, if not daily… and that seems largely dependent on which particular pollsters (and how they model the electorate) are offering results that week, and who’s dominating the advertising tempo that week. That seems to be the only explanation for how last week Rick Scott seemed to be taking over, but now (especially with Sink’s damning 2-minute ad about Scott’s Medicare fraud running now) — between a 4-point Mason-Dixon lead, a 1-point deficit in Quinnipiac (down from a big Scott lead in their first post-LV-switch poll), and even a 3-point ballgame in Rasmussen this week — the needle seems to be swinging back to Alex Sink.

    As always, the picture of the trendlines (here dialed up to more sensitivity) is worth a thousand words. Click here for trendlines (and dial it up to “more sensitivity” for full effect of the last few weeks).

    As for PPP’s specific numbers, the gap is still about the same; their old post-primary numbers don’t add up to 100 because Bud Chiles was drawing 8 (which seems to have been equally allocated between Sink and Scott with his departure). Sink’s favorables are 44/38 compared with 33/52 for Scott; helping Scott, though, seems to be progress uniting Republicans behind him (he pulls 77% of GOPers, up from 57% post-primary, while Scott’s at 76% of Dems), and a decidedly Republican-leaning likely voter pool (the sample went 51-44 in favor of McCain in ’08).

    AK-Sen: Miller Leads, But…

    Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (10/9-10, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Scott McAdams (D): 26

    Joe Miller (R): 35

    Someone else: 35

    Undecided: 5

    (MoE: ±2.4%)

    In looking at PPP’s poll released yesterday (on behalf of our Orange Overlords), let’s walk step-by-step through what they’re doing in this basically impossible-to-poll race. Their approach is fairly similar to what Ivan Moore did a few weeks ago: first run a heat without Lisa Murkowski. (The difference here is that PPP specifically ask “someone else,” while Moore only seemed to let people volunteer that on the first round.) With this approach, it’s a tie between Miller and “someone else.”

    PPP then asked the “someone else” voters who they were planning to vote for: indie Tim Carter, indie Ted Gianoutsos, Libertarian Frederick Haase, write in Lisa Murkowski, or write in someone else? Murkowski won that round with 95%, with 2 going to Haase, 1 to Gianoutsos, 0 to Carter, and 2 to write in someone else. That was then imputed to find these results:

    Scott McAdams (D): 26

    Joe Miller (R): 35

    Lisa Murkowski (WI): 33

    Undecided: 4

    (MoE: ±2.4%)

    Miller leads narrowly, despite his atrocious 35/58 favorables among the general electorate – the worst PPP has found for a Republican senate candidate this year, including Christine O’Donnell. (Contrast that with 48/46 for Murkowski and 44/26 for McAdams, probably thanks to his cheerful ads.)

    This contrasts a bit with Moore’s approach, which was to remind voters of Murkowski’s presence, ask all voters “stay the same” or “write in Murkowski,” and impute based on that, which seemed to yield a more pro-Murkowski result (44-36 in her favor). I don’t know which approach is the most optimal (maybe PPP’s, since it doesn’t prompt everyone that Murkowski’s in the race, only nudges them in that direction with “someone else” and the follow up question, which may more accurately reflect voting-booth dynamics where there’s no reminder about Murkowski), but at any rate, they’re both better than other polls which just list Murkowski with everyone else.

    Ethan Berkowitz (D): 42

    Sean Parnell (R-inc): 51

    Undecided: 7

    Harry Crawford (D): 36

    Don Young (R-inc): 58

    Undecided: 6

    (MoE: ±2.4%)

    PPP also looks at the much-less-complicated Governor and House races, and, as one would expect, finds the incumbent Republicans in command here, although Ethan Berkowitz still looks surprisingly lively in the gubernatorial race.

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/13 (Afternoon Edition)

    AK-Sen: In the avalanche of various other acts of hypocrisy and self-dealing that have come out about Joe Miller in the last few weeks, somehow I missed this one: not only did he avail himself of low-income hunting and fishing licenses, but his family has received assistance from Medicaid and similar state-level Denali Kidcare. Somewhere, his most ardent supporters are hurling their copies of Atlas Shrugged into the fireplace in disgust, learning that their mighty Producer is nothing more than a parasite, weakly availing himself of every program under the sun designed to enslave man. (And somewhere, either heaven or Rick Barber’s fevered imagination, James Madison is hurling his copy of the Federalist Papers into the fireplace, upset that this ostensible patriot is availing himself of such a plainly unconstitutional program.)

    DE-Sen: I think this had been made pretty clear few weeks ago, but Mike Castle reiterated it in as official terms as possible on CNN yesterday: he’s not endorsing anybody in the Senate race.

    FL-Sen: Very-tanned centrist GOPer governors gotta stick together, and Arnold Schwarzenegger just gave his probably-not-worth-much backing to Charlie Crist yesterday. The Marco Rubio camp may have gotten the last laugh here, though:

    “When it comes to inflicting ‘Collateral Damage’ on the economy, Charlie Crist and Arnold Schwarzenegger are definitely ‘Twins.’  Charlie’s flip-flops have made him a master at telling ‘True Lies.’ We all know the only thing Charlie cares about is the next election. But this year, Florida will take an ‘Eraser’ to ‘The Running Man.'” – Rubio campaign spokesman Alex Burgos, responding to Schwarzenegger’s endorsement of Crist.

    PA-Sen: I wouldn’t start popping the champagne cork (or even buy a bottle of champagne) yet, but the DSCC seems to be seeing some negative-ad-driven progress in Pennsylvania. They’ve released an internal poll, via Garin Hart Yang, that actually gives Joe Sestak the lead. He’s up 44-42 over Pat Toomey, in a poll taken Oct. 8-10. With leaners pushed, Sestak expands to a 47-44 lead. No public pollster has seen anything like that (at least yet).

    WA-Sen: If you’re wondering what’s up with the huge disparities in Washington Senate numbers between the live-caller and auto-dialed polls, you’re not alone. Nate Silver doesn’t exactly have answers, pointing to unique Washington variables that confound pollsters, like its (almost entirely) vote-by-mail status and its large number of cellphone-only users. But he does have some interesting charts showing that Rasmussen and SurveyUSA have consistently overestimated GOP performance all decade long in Washington (while, at the same time, Elway has overestimated Dem performance).

    WV-Sen: Hot on the heels of PPP’s poll showing Joe Manchin back in the lead, the DSCC is out with an internal poll showing similar numbers. The GQR poll from Oct. 7-12, the height of “hicky” mania, gives Manchin a 49-44 lead over John Raese, whose 40/38 faves lag Manchin’s 63/28.

    CA-Gov: All previous political self-funding records are quickly receding in Meg Whitman’s rearview mirror, as she just plowed another $20 million into her gubernatorial bid, bringing her all-cycle total to over $141 million.

    WV-Gov: I don’t know what West Virginians’ aversion to comprehensible succession laws is, but after emerging from the morass of how to replace Robert Byrd, now the legislature is grappling with what to do with the Governor position if Joe Manchin manages to win the Senate special election. Legislative lawyers say that unless the legislature takes some sort of action, Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin would take over as “acting governor” for the entire remainder of Manchin’s term, until the regularly scheduled Nov. 2012 election… but that there would be two elections that day, one for the full four years and one for the lame-duck period.

    FL-25: I look forward to seeing David Rivera’s explanation:

    Over the past seven years, Republican state Rep. David Rivera repeatedly said in sworn documents that his main source of income, outside of his salary from the Legislature, came from consulting work he did for the U.S. Agency for International Development. But USAID has no record of ever hiring Rivera — now a candidate for Congress — or his company.

    KS-04: SurveyUSA has shown an unexpectedly close race (for an open seat in a dark-red district in this climate), with several polls in high single digits, so GOP nominee Mike Pompeo is offering some pushback with an internal from Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates from Oct. 10-11. His poll gives him a 48-31 lead over Raj Goyle. (You may recall that this pollster works with the Club for Growth, and is responsible for highlights like this one. Senator Dick Zimmer vouches for their accuracy!)

    NY-24: Richard Hanna’s out with an internal poll, courtesy of  McLaughlin (no dates given by Politico, and with a big fat MoE of 5.6%). Hanna leads, but only by 46-43. Considering that Hanna is trying to push back against not a Mike Arcuri internal but an honest-to-gosh public poll (from Siena) with an Arcuri lead of 8, that seems like kind of weak sauce.

    MN-06: Today’s fundraising highlight is that Michele Bachmann pulled in $5.4 million in the third quarter. Interestingly, it looks like she’ll report “only” $3.4 million cash on hand, suggesting a similar phenomenon as Sharron Angle (for whom there weren’t any CoH numbers at all), where there’s a lot of churn going on not just for a TV blitz but also for widespread nationwide direct-mail marketing, which is expensive. (Just ask Joe Cao.) While these numbers certainly don’t bode well as far as unseating Bachmann this year, the bright side is that’s money that low-information voters might otherwise have given to GOP House challengers in tight races who could have actually leveraged that money a lot more effectively.

    TX-27: Even if you’re a political junkie like us, yesterday’s internal poll was probably the first you’ve ever heard of Blake Farenthold. The DCCC fills in some blanks, suggesting that you’re probably not likely to hear too much about him in the future, either. He’s somehow sitting on a negative $5K in cash, and… I’m not quite sure how this happened, but he appears on the front of what appears to be some sort of local tea party-oriented publication, in pajamas, in the company of what appears to be some sort of sex-industry professional (and not as an example of what not to do, but apparently because said publication is endorsing him). Yeah, I’m just as confused as you; you’ll have to check out the link.

    WA-08: Ordinarily, we don’t report on newspaper endorsements, since they don’t seem to move many votes and are usually pretty predictable based on each paper’s e-board leanings. We’ll make an exception in this case, since Dave Reichert largely owes his continued existence to the Seattle Times, who’ve clung to him as, in their eyes, the last remaining exemplar of the old-style moderate Republicanism they fetishize. So it’s a strange and wondrous thing to see them turning their back on him in favor of Suzan DelBene.

    Blue Dogs: CQ has an interesting piece about the yawning leadership gap at the Blue Dogs, where two of its key members, John Tanner and Dennis Moore, are skedaddling. It cites a number of possible new heads (most notably Allen Boyd and Jim Matheson), but there’s a certain amount of cart-before-horse here, because the Blue Dogs are disproportionately in the crosshairs this cycle and it’s unclear how many of the key ones (Boyd, especially, as well as Stephanie Herseth Sandlin) will even be back.

    DLCC: The DLCC is out with its third and probably final installment in its “Essential Races” series, pointing you (and your contribution dollars) toward 15 more legislators in key races that might determine chamber control in some of the most important state legislatures.

    Money: More evidence that the advantage by the Democratic committees and individual members was pretty illusory, given the myriad ways (527s and 501(c)(4)s, oh my) that the wealthy have to plow nearly-unlimited money into political races: an alliance of groups (Karl Rove’s American Crossroads and Norm Coleman’s American Action Network, as well as a new one, Commission on Hope, Growth, and Opportunity) is planning a $50 million ad blitz focused on some relatively underserved House races. This includes IN-02, CO-07, and even Maurice Hinchey’s NY-22. (H/t Nathan Gonzales.)

    SSP TV:

    IL-Sen: Mark Kirk revisits the Broadway Bank yet again with his newest ad

    LA-Sen: A solid ad from Charlie Melancon, hitting David Vitter on outsourcing and cozying up to BP

    MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan tries some anti-Washington (including congressional pay raises) shots at Roy Blunt

    PA-Sen: VoteVets boosts Joe Sestak with a hit on Pat Toomey for voting against veterans’ benefits

    CT-Gov: The RGA has a boilerplate attack ad on Dan Malloy as tax-raising career politician

    HI-Gov: It’s not your imagination, this race is looking competitive, at least if the DGA is advertising here: they’re out with an anti-Duke Aiona ad

    IL-Gov: Pat Quinn’s new ad actually comes close to saying that Bill Brady will kill your dog if you vote for him.

    OH-Gov: Ted Strickland’s ad goes back to the basics: hitting John Kasich on his outsourcing Wall Street ways

    SC-Gov: The RGA is having to advertise and staff up in SC-Gov, probably much to their chagrin, as this looks like it’s turning into a real race: their new spot calls Vincent Sheheen liberal, morphs him into Obama, and does all the usual

    IL-17: The SEIU backs up one of labor’s biggest backers in the House, Phil Hare, with a 10-day buy for $317K in the Quad Cities, for an ad hitting Bobby Schilling on free trade and outsourcing

    PA-06: Manan Trivedi’s new ad goes after Jim Gerlach and ‘special interests’

    PA-08: VoteVets is also out with a spot in the 8th, hitting Mike Fitzpatrick on veterans’ benefits votes during his brief stay in Congress

    WI-03: The National Federation of Independent Business is out with a slew of new ads that includes softening up not-quite-top-tier Dem districts, with 10-day ad buys including not just WI-03 but also CA-11, CO-03, MO-03, NY-19, NY-23, PA-10, OH-16, and SC-05.

    Rasmussen:

    ME-Gov: Libby Mitchell (D) 32%, Paul LePage (R) 35%, Eliot Cutler (I) 21%

    NH-Gov: John Lynch (D-inc) 53%, John Stephen (R) 43%

    NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 48%, Sharron Angle (R) 49%

    OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 45%, John Kasich (R) 48%

    OR-Sen: Ron Wyden (D) 52%, Jim Huffman (R) 36%

    WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 46%, John Raese (R) 49%

    Mark Penn: Republicans Lead Most Competitive Open Seat Races

    Noted d-bag Mark Penn is out with ten new polls conducted for The Hill. These are all open seat races with departing Democratic incumbents, with the exception of GOP Rep. Charles Djou’s race and the open seat being vacated by Mark Kirk.

    Penn Schoen for The Hill (10/2-7, likely voters, MoE: ±4.9%):

    AR-01:

    Chad Causey (D): 34

    Rick Crawford (R): 46

    HI-01:

    Colleen Hanabusa (D): 41

    Charles Djou: 45

    IL-10:

    Dan Seals (D): 49

    Robert Dold (R): 37

    MI-01:

    Gary McDowell (D): 39

    Dan Benishek (R): 42

    NH-02:

    Ann Kuster (D): 42

    Charlie Bass (R): 45

    PA-07:

    Bryan Lentz (D): 39

    Pat Meehan: 40

    TN-08:

    Roy Herron (D): 37

    Stephen Fincher (R): 47

    WA-03:

    Denny Heck (D): 40

    Jaime Herrera (R): 42

    WI-07:

    Julie Lassa (D): 35

    Sean Duffy (R): 44

    WV-01:

    Mike Oliverio (D): 42

    David McKinley (R): 39