Swing State Project

Public Policy Polling (8/27-28, likely voters, no trend lines):

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 37

Sean Parnell (R): 55

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±2.7%)

Of a trio of polls released in the past week, these are the best numbers for Sean Parnell (an NRSC-commissioned Basswood Research poll had Parnell up by 54-40, and Rasmussen, for whatever it’s worth, had the race at 53-43). The bloom has faded a bit from the Parnell flower, though, as PPP finds that his job approval rating is at 50-36, down from 58-19 earlier in the year.

One thing not considered by this PPP poll are the third-party options. For a few days, it looked like Republican Bill Walker, who pulled a third of the GOP primary vote against Parnell, might run on the Alaskan Independence Party line in place of the current AIP nominee, 80 year-old Don Wright. After saying that he would bow out of the race, Wright has reversed course and now insists that he’s staying on the ballot. Walker says he’s still considering running as a write-in or on the Libertarian line, but that would require the consent of the Alaskan Libertarian Party and their nominee William Toien. (For their part, the Libertarians say they would “consider it”.) If anything’s going to happen, it’ll have to happen pretty soon — state law says that a party can replace its nominee up to 48 days before election day.

If Walker did manage to land on the Libertarian line, it might make for a more interesting general election — recall that Democrat Tony Knowles was successful in 1994 thanks in part to vote-splitting between the GOP and the Alaskan Independence nominees.

Meanwhile, we also have some House numbers:

Harry Crawford (D): 36

Don Young (R-inc): 55

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±2.7%)

After surviving near-death in 2008, it’s looking like Don Young won’t have any troubles this fall. The real marquee match-up will be the Senate race between Scott McAdams and Joe Miller.

Market Shares Corp for the Chicago Tribune/WGN (8/28-9/1, likely voters, no trend lines):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 32

Bill Brady (R): 37

Scott Lee Cohen (I): 4

Rich Whitney (G): 2

Lex Green (L): 2

Did You Know… that Pat Quinn has not held the lead in a single poll this year?

Granted, nearly all of these polls have come from just two sources (PPP and Rasmussen), but that’s really a non-comfort here given the sheer volume of them.

SurveyUSA (8/31-9/2, likely voters, no trend lines):

Rick Larsen (D-inc): 46

John Koster (R): 50

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±4%)

This poll comes in the wake of the final top-two primary results giving Koster a 298 vote lead over Larsen. Digging deeper, though, two Democratic candidates took a full 10% of the primary vote, resulting in a final score of 52-48 for Team Blue. This is the second time that Koster has won the top-two primary vote against Larsen, the first time coming in 2000, where Larsen ultimately won the general election by 50-46.

Comparing these results to previous SUSA polls of this district in 2008 and 2006, the partisan composition of the sample isn’t what’s hurting Larsen; the damage is coming from Larsen’s struggles among independent voters. He loses those voters by 12 points, compared to monster-sized wins among indies in the past two cycles. The 18-34 year-old vote has shrunk substantially, too, down to 13% of the sample — leaving behind a demographic that flocks to Koster by 22 points.

You may take issue with the poll, but this one is shaping up to be a very close race.

SurveyUSA (8/31-9/2, likely voters, 7/17-20 in parens):

Rick Boucher (D-inc): 50 (52)

Morgan Griffith (R): 40 (39)

Jeremiah Heaton (I): 5 (5)

Undecided: 4 (5)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

SurveyUSA again takes the pulse of the much-hyped race between veteran Dem Rep. Rick Boucher and Virginia House of Delegates Majority Leader Morgan Griffith, and finds that the needle hasn’t budged significantly over the past month and a half. SUSA’s likely voter universe has gotten slightly more Republican over that time, shifting from 33D-35R-29I to 32D-37R-29I, but Boucher is still strong enough in less-friendly demographics to maintain a decent lead. Boucher takes a quarter of the Republican vote and holds a one-point lead among indies — very strong numbers compared to the performance of other Democratic incumbents playing on red turf this year.

We haven’t seen a great deal of polling from this race, but all indicators are surprisingly positive for Boucher. In addition to this pair of SUSA polls, a mid-August Benenson Strategy Group internal poll for Rick Boucher gave him a 55-32 lead over Griffith. With plenty of time left on the clock, Boucher is by no means safe, but it appears he has slipped down the priority list for Republican gunners this fall.

By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

When Republicans attack American liberalism, they prefer to use San Francisco as a punch bag. Indeed, San Francisco does constitute quite a liberal city; in the 2008 presidential election, 84.0% of the good folk of San Francisco preferred Democratic candidate Barack Obama over Senator John McCain.

San Francisco was far from the most Democratic-voting city in 2008, however. Mr. Obama’s percentage total was greater in several places; Washington D.C., for instance, pummeled San Francisco in the contest of who votes more loyally Democratic. In the capital of America, an astonishing 92.5% of voters supported the Illinois senator.

Most people who will hear this will probably start thinking something quite politically incorrect. The line of thought goes that “Washington is full of black people, all the blacks voted for Obama, so of course it voted that way.”

This is half true and half false.

More below.

It is true that the capital’s black population voted uniformly for the president – something that occurs with almost all Democratic candidates. The census, however, estimates that blacks compose only 54.4% of Washington’s overall population. This may surprise a lot of Americans who think the city is all-black. Even if every single black person in Washington voted Democratic, Mr. Obama still is quite a ways off from 92.5%.

Let’s look at another place with similar demographics to Washington D.C. – Montgomery County, Alabama where the Civil Rights movement started. Like Washington, Montgomery’s population is 52.9% black. Unlike Washington (where Mr. Obama won 92.5% of the vote), however, Montgomery only gave Mr. Obama 59.3% of the vote. Blacks are not responsible for this 33% difference; there is not much variation in how African-Americans voted in both cities.

The trick is with the white population. According to exit polls, Mr. Obama won 10% of whites in the state of Alabama. The results from Montgomery County reflect this low level of support.

In Washington, however, Mr. Obama won an astounding 86% of the white vote, according to exit polls. This is how the Illinois senator was able to get up to 92.5% of the vote in Washington, which is about one-third white. If white people alone had voted in Washington, Mr. Obama would still have done better than he did in San Francisco.

It would be quite interesting to explore why whites in the capital vote so loyally Democratic. Washington, of course, constitutes the center of the federal government; it would not be unusual for much of the white population to work for the government and thus vote more Democratic. But what type of work do they do – do they deliver the mail for the Post Office, or do they run the Post Office? Is Washington’s white population composed of  mostly working-class, union-type Democrats? Or is it composed mostly of  “wine-track” liberals, the type that populate cities like San  Francisco and Seattle?

Whatever the answer, this statistic remains one of the most curious and interesting ones to come out of the 2008 presidential election. Indeed, until now this blogger  was unaware that such one-sided Democratic voting patterns existed among  whites anywhere in the nation. To get 86% of the vote anywhere is a burdensome feat. For a Democrat to get that support from whites is something that one does not see often in the United States.

Cat fud lovers of the world, unite and take over…

A special thank you to everyone who’s already donated to Scott McAdams. We’re already well past the halfway mark of our goal – can we keep the McMentum going?

Let us pray for the survival of Dan Maes’ candidacy. There’s a chance that it may not outlive the day:

Top Colorado Republicans are attempting to convince gubernatorial nominee Dan Maes to drop his bid for governor by the end of Friday, a well-placed Republican in the state tells POLITICO.

In a meeting Friday morning, party chairman Dick Wadhams and other members of the state GOP executive committee met with Maes to present what one called “damaging evidence” that hasn’t yet been made public but would further erode his standing as a candidate, according to the source.

A second Republican consultant confirmed the account and said while there was no explicit ultimatum presented by the chairman to Maes, the message was clear.

“It was: Do you really want to put your family through this? If you stay in the race, you’ll have to endure this and this,” said the Republican, citing potential reports by the Denver Post.

Meanwhile, Ken Buck and GOP Rep. Mike Coffman both pulled their support from Maes today. If Maes is gonna get out, he’ll need to do so before today’s 5pm local deadline (7pm Eastern) to remove his name from the ballot.

Cat fud fans take note — even if Maes is replaced on the ballot with someone like Jane Norton or state Sen. Josh Penry, Tom Tancredo is telling the Denver Post that he won’t back down from his third-party bid. Also, state Sen. Dave Schultheis, a Maes supporter, told the Colorado Springs Gazette that Maes told him he won’t back out. The Politico reports that Maes’ spokesperson is a lot more circumspect in their language, saying only that Maes “has no plans to exit the race at this time”.

5:32PM UPDATE: Dan Maes is saying that he’s staying in, apparently. But we won’t know for sure for another 90 minutes.

6:37PM UPDATE: From the Facebook page of Dan Maes, we have it straight from the horse’s mouth: Dan Maes is going nowhere!!

Check out this naked shit:

Incumbent Republican Jan Brewer said Thursday she has no intention of participating in any more events with Democrat Terry Goddard. She said the only reason she debated him on Wednesday is she had to to qualify for more than $1.7 million in public funds for her campaign.

I hope that $1.7 million was worth the embarrassment of her disastrous pre- and post-debate performance, in which she stumbled out of the gate during her opening statement and angrily stormed away from a media scrum after refusing to answer a chorus of questions on her bizarre, unsubstantiated claims about “beheadings in the desert”. And by the way, she’s still not explaining herself on that score:

“All you guys were doing and talking were beheadings, beheadings, beheadings,” the governor said. “That is something that has stuck with you all for so long, and I just felt we needed to move on.”

You gotta give Brewer points for honesty; she fully admits that she’s ducking out of all future debates because she knows she’ll lose:

Anyway, Brewer said, she believes the debates help Goddard more than they benefit her.

“Why would I want to give Terry a chance to redefine himself?” she said.

At least we know where her head’s at!

Market Shares Corp for the Chicago Tribune/WGN (8/28-9/1, likely voters, no trend lines):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 34

Mark Kirk (R): 34

LeAlan Jones (G): 6

Mike Labno (L): 3

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4%)

One area where Giannoulias can gain some ground is among African American voters, who favor him over Kirk by 58-3 margin. This one is shaping up to be a battle of inches, though:

I’m flabbergasted:

Buck: “In the 1950s, we had the best schools in the world. And the United States government decided to get more involved in federal education.”

There are no words.