Swing State Project

Public Policy Polling (7/16-18, Florida voters, 3/5-8 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 17 (25)

Marco Rubio (R): 29 (34)

Charlie Crist (I): 35 (27)

Alex Snitker (L): 4 (n/a)

Undecided: 15 (14)

Jeff Greene (D): 13

Marco Rubio (R): 29

Charlie Crist (I): 38

Alex Snitker (L): 3

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±3.3%)

These are pretty nice numbers for Crist, who’s enjoying a remarkable turnaround since March by effectively supplanting Meek as the Democratic nominee in all but title. Crist is winning 44% of Democrats vs. 35% for Meek, and 52% when Greene’s name is on the ballot. Of course, holding together a coalition of voters that includes nearly a quarter of Republicans, 40% of independents, and nearly half of Democrats is a narrow line to walk for the next four months.

Crist is certainly enjoying the external benefits of the Dem-on-Dem fratricide between Meek and Greene, but I have to wonder which candidate he’d prefer to face in the fall. Meek is undeniably the more credible candidate, and pulls more Democrats from Crist’s column, but he should be pretty badly bruised by Greene’s moneybombs come September. That said, Greene is the less appealing general election choice, but this billionaire crumb-bum will be able to run as many negative ads as he can dream of after the primary.

Another interesting stat, as highlighted by Tom Jensen, is that Crist’s voters would rather see him caucus with the Senate Democrats by a 55-22 spread. Once elected, Crist will know who sent them there. I’d expect him to vote (and caucus) accordingly.

There is nothing original about this short diary.  I just wanted to make you aware of an interesting Gallup survey from yesterday that measures President Obama’s approval in all 50 states:

Here’s the link:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/141…

You should go to “page 2” in the survey for a chart showing approval/disapproval by state. Also, here’s a map from the survey above:

The Gallup labeling appears slightly misleading to me because, while in all the states marked as “below average” Obama does have a net negative approval, in all the states marked as “above average” AS WELL AS in all the states marked as “average” his approval is a net positive.

The only “unpleasant surprises” to me are New Hampshire and Missouri.  On the other hand, there are a number of pleasant surprises, including Ohio, Colorado, South Dakota, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi and Texas.  The map almost looks like a very plausible near-future electoral college configuration to me, with the lightest green states going GOP, and the medium green and dark green ones going Democratic — maybe plausible in 2016 or 2020, that is !

PPP (pdf) (7/16-18, Nevada voters, no trendlines):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 48

Sharron Angle (R): 46

Undecided: 6

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Hot on the heels of Mason-Dixon’s game-changing poll giving Harry Reid a 7-point lead over Sharron Angle comes PPP. PPP’s 2-point lead for Reid seems like a likelier picture of this race to me, although there is one methodological difference here that I note: PPP didn’t include third-party choices or Nevada’s notorious “None of These” option, both of which seem to act as a safety-valve for Reid by soaking up first-and-foremost anti-Reid votes.

Reid’s approvals are 44/53, not the kind of numbers that usually get you re-elected… unless you’re up against Angle, who’s been thoroughly defined by Reid (and by her own long history of saying crazy things), leaving her with favorables of 36/52. 38% of voters say she’s “too conservative” (with 38% saying just right, and 10% saying “too liberal” — perhaps motivated by her pro-massages-for-prisoners stance). Also, 50% say she’s “extremist” while only 39% say “mainstream.” That’s not the kind of image you can usually rehabilitate in four months, but try she will: starting with her new TV spot which she’s launching. It’s a positive ad, believe it or not… well, to the extent that any ad that starts out with the candidate intoning “We live in a fearful society right now!” can be considered positive. The buy is for $330K.

This shouldn’t really come as a surprise to plugged-in observers. But less than a day after the ink was dry on the compromise agreement that came out of the West Virginia legislature setting up a special election this November to replace Robert Byrd, Gov. Joe Manchin announced he’s running in it.

A little more than 12 hours after signing the special election change into law, Manchin confirmed that he will seek the final two years of Byrd’s term. He enters the race as the odds-on favorite, regardless of who Republicans nominate.

Despite indicating early on that he was likely to run for the seat, Manchin said at a news conference that he labored over the decision. Winning would require him to yield the final two years of his second and final term as governor.

The big question now is whether Rep. Shelly Moore Capito, the only Republican who can make this interesting, gets in the race. The Capito Carve-out (the strange exception made by the legislature that allows a person to run in a regularly-scheduled general election and the special election at the same time, and seems to have only one person in mind…) certainly increases the odds that she’ll run, now that she doesn’t have to give up her day job. Her spokesperson says that Capito won’t announce anything today, but spouted some boilerplate that makes her sound candidate-ish.

“Congresswoman Capito will announce her decision soon after determining how she can best continue to serve West Virginia on important issues like protecting the state’s vital energy industry, where she has been the loudest and sometimes only critic of the Obama administration’s assault on coal,” Capito spokesman Kent Gates said.

Swing State Project will be holding off on assigning a rating on this race until Capito’s intentions are clear. With Manchin’s very high approval ratings and across-the-boards institutional support (from the AFL-CIO to the Chamber of Commerce), either way he starts as a solid favorite.

GA-Gov (D): Ex-Gov. Roy Barnes has held commanding leads in every credible poll of this primary, so the question tonight isn’t who finishes first, but rather, will Barnes capture the Democratic nomination without needing a runoff? Four out of the five pollsters who have released polls of this contest in July have pegged Barnes’ support in the mid-to-high 50s, while the fifth, Public Policy Polling, had Barnes at 49%. Barnes has dominated the airwaves at the expense of his next closest competitor, state AG Thurbert Baker, but Baker recently picked up the support of Bill Clinton, the most recent Democrat to win Georgia at the Presidential level. Baker may have also earned some favor with base voters by refusing to challenge the constitutional validity of Congress’ healthcare reform legislation passed earlier this year — a move that earned him the full wrath of sitting Gov. Sonny Perdue and the GOP-dominated state legislature. Rounding out the field are House Minority Leader DuBose Porter and ex-SoS/Labor Commissioner/GA National Guard Adjutant-General David Poythress, both of whom have failed to gain much traction in the polls. (J)

GA-Gov (R): What a difference a few weeks makes. One month ago, Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine was a mortal lock to make the runoff (with just too many candidates for anyone to win outright), and looking likely to advance to the general election thanks to his financial advantages. A few ethical allegations and Sarah Palin endorsements later, former SoS Karen Handel has pulled into a dominant lead, with Oxendine struggling to even make the runoff. The most recent spate of polls has seen the Ox neck-and-neck with almost-as-sleazy former Rep. Nathan Deal for the 2nd runoff spot, and even, in one poll, sinking into 4th behind state Sen. Eric Johnson, who aired a last-minute TV ad blitz and might (a la Robert Bentley in Alabama) sneak into the runoff by virtue of not being any of the other candidates.

GA-04 (D): Incumbent Democratic Rep. Hank Johnson faces a serious primary challenge from ex-DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones and DeKalb County Commissioner Connie Stokes. Jones, as you may recall, was last seen losing the 2008 Democratic Senate nomination to Jim Martin after admitting that he voted for George W. Bush not once but twice. (Furthermore, the man also carries around some pretty ugly baggage.) Jones has been aggressively hitting Johnson, who disclosed last December that he’s been battling Hepatitis C for years, for supposedly being an absentee representative, and drawing attention to Johnson’s curious comments that the island of Guam may someday “capsize”. An internal poll for Johnson released in January had Johnson up by a 47-19 margin over Jones, with 5% for Stokes. And after a slow fundraising start to the year, Johnson has been raising and spending at a rate unmatched by Jones and Stokes. Johnson has also earned the endorsements of Barack Obama and former Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin. Still, in this summer of discontent, it’s worth watching races like this one. (J)

GA-07 (R): The Republican derby to replace retiring long-time wingnut Rep. John Linder is overloaded with candidates and likely to head to a runoff, but state Rep. Clay Cox seems to be in the driver’s seat, with former Christian Coalition head Ralph Reed and several prominent state Senators having taken passes or bailed out of the race. Cox’s main opposition seems to be Linder’s former CoS, Rob Woodall. Interestingly, all eight candidates in the field have sworn fealty to Linder’s pet crackpot scheme, the so-called “Fair Tax” (a plan to replace the graduated income tax with a gigantic, and massively regressive, national sales tax).

GA-09 (R): They’ve already faced off two times in the last few months, so what’s one more time between friends? Former state Rep. Tom Graves won the special election to fill the seat left empty by Nathan Deal’s one-step-ahead-of-the-law resignation and is just settling in as a newly-minted U.S. Rep. However, now he has to face off once again against the man he defeated in the special primary and runoff: state Sen. Screamin’ Lee Hawkins. It’ll be an uphill fight for Hawkins, but Hawkins has a strong base in Hall County, and Graves may be further damaged by revelations about his attempts to dodge a lawsuit over an unpaid loan (which hadn’t fully broken when the special runoff happened).

GA-12 (D/R): The duel in the GA-12 Democratic primary between Rep. John Barrow and Regina Thomas seemed to catch some netroots attention in 2008; it pitted one of House Dems’ most conservative members (a particularly bad mismatch with his D+1 district) against an African-American former state Senator with a delightful array of hats. Her underfunded campaign barely captured a quarter of the vote, though, and the rematch this year seems to have inspired a netroots-wide ‘meh.’ Despite more of a head start this year, Thomas’s campaign is even more underfunded this time, and Barrow has been spending like mad to mitigate his constituents’ discontent with his ‘no’ vote on HCR. Barrow correctly understands that Thomas is his main opposition this year; with widely-self-touted Wayne Mosely sidelined last year by lawsuit-related financial woes, the NRCC doesn’t seem to have a prize pick in this primary. Former Thunderbolt fire chief Carl Smith seems to come closest to being the GOP’s establishment candidate here, while nuclear power plant safety inspector project manager Ray McKinney fancies himself the teabaggers’ choice.

Have any predictions for tonight? Please share with us in the comments.

Polls close at 7 pm ET.

We’ve mentioned it previously, but I just wanted to pimp it one last time: James, Crisitunity and I will all be doing a Q&A panel at Netroots Nation this coming Friday, on exactly the topic you’d expect us to be doing: the 2010 horserace. Here’s the full description:

2010: The Big Picture

Time: Friday, July 23rd, 4:30pm – 5:45pm

Room: Brasilia 6

The editors of Daily Kos and the Swing State Project invite you to join them for an in-depth Q&A about the 2010 elections. We’ll take questions on all subjects, from the nitty-gritty-polling, fundraising and redistricting – to the big picture – marquee races, key themes and the impact on progressive goals. If you want to know more about what’s going to happen in November and what it will mean for Democrats, Republicans and the entire country, stop in!

Also on the panel will be Markos Moulitsas, Laura Clawson, and Steve Singiser from Daily Kos. It will be moderated by Joan McCarter, also of DK. There are quite a few other horserace-themed panels that are worth checking out – you can search the complete Netroots Nation agenda here. I also wanted to give a special shout-out to filmmaker Jeff Reichert, who will be doing a “showcase” screening of about twenty minutes from his new movie Gerrymandering, a topic of keen interest to many folks here.

Anyhow, if you’re going to be at NN, let us know in comments! And look us up at the convention!

UPDATE: Streaming video of our panel will be made available here.

WV-Sen: Gov. Joe Manchin is holding a press conference at 10am today to announce his intentions with regard to the special election for the late Sen. Robert Byrd’s now-vacant senate seat. Apparently, Manchin is paying for a live satellite feed, leading Mike Memoli to quip that this has to mean he’s running.

OH-Gov: Is this really the right way to be doing things? The Cleveland Plain-Dealer explains John Kasich’s strategy for dealing with the media:

Until now, Kasich has run a low-profile race with the exception of showing up on national Fox radio and television programs. His campaign advisors repeatedly dodge or refuse to answer questions from local media covering the race.

Kasich must know it. Even as one of his spokesmen tried to pull him away from the media on Monday, Kasich held his ground and with one parting shot vowed to be more accessible.

“There is this perception in some quarters that Kasich is not available. You think I am not available you call me,” he said. “Because I don’t think I’ve ever turned down any of your interviews, unless they are just stupid questions.”

Uh, no. It’s not the right way. And nor is Kasich’s first ad, which we discussed yesterday, where he basically repeats Ted Strickland’s (dead-on) accusations against him. I’ve learned from a source that Kasich’s ad buy is actually for real – about $200K over three weeks, in Cincy and Columbus – but I don’t know if I’d be too unhappy about that if I were the Strickland team. Kasich is proving to be his own worst enemy.

TX-Gov: File this under “TX-Gov, 2006”: Rick Perry just settled a lawsuit with Chris Bell, his Democratic opponent from the last time Perry sought re-election, for some $426,000. Bell had accused Perry of trying to mask the source of a $1 million donation from Bob Perry, the kind of Swift Boat pond scum, in the waning days of the 2006 race.

Meanwhile, Obama alert! The POTUS is coming to Texas on August 9th to do two fundraisers, one for the DNC and one for the DSCC. I’m filing this under TX-Gov, though, because Dem gubernatorial candidate Bill White says he has no plans to attend either event.

ID-01: It was a bridge too far, even for Walt Minnick. The Democratic frosh is rejecting the endorsement of the Tea Party Express, on account of their refusal to refudiate racist jerkwad Mark Williams. (Click the link if you really need the backstory.) Minnick is still touting his support from local teabaggers, though.

NC-02: Remember Renee Ellmers? I don’t, either, but fortunately Politico reminds us she’s the GOPer who was hoping to capitalize on Bob Etheridge’s seriously over-the-top response to those weirdo Republican kids who were trying to videotape him doing something embarrassing (boy did they ever). But as one brave anonymous consultant says, Ellmers is clearly “not ready for prime time”: she utterly failed to capitalize on the gift she was handed and has only $42,000 in the bank, while Etheridge has $1.2 million.

NY-01: Good news: Rep. Tim Bishop scored the Independence Party line in his bid for re-election. Bishop also has the Working Families Party line.

NY-14: If there’s one thing Reshma Saujani is good at, it’s protesting too much. She’s as touchy about her Wall Street connections as John Kasich, claiming that “only” 25% of her donors in 2Q work in the banking industry. Justin Elliott at Salon crunched the numbers and found that this actually amounted to a full 48% of Saujani’s cash haul – even worse than the one-third I calculated represented her share from financiers in the first quarter. Another Salon writer, Alex Pareene, also points out how whack-ass Saujani’s messaging has been, trying to downplay her own extreme reliance on Wall Street while attacking Maloney for raising money from from financial types. Moreover, as Liz Benjamin details, Saujani has had a high burn rate ($1.2 million raised, $770K spent, and no TV as yet), and only $272K of her $428K on hand is primary money. The rest is only good for a phantom general election.

NY-20: More good Independence Party news: Rep. Scott Murphy will have the IP line free and clear. Republican Chris Gibson had hoped to challenge Murphy for the line in a primary, but the party refused to give Gibson the necessary “certificate of authorization” (known to hardcore NY junkies as a “Wilson-Pakula”) that allows candidates to run on the line of a party they are not a member of.

PA-07: Biden AND Pelosi alert! The fearsome twosome did a fundraiser in Philly yesterday that raised $250,000. Half will go to Bryan Lentz’s campaign coffers and half will go to the D-Trip.

VA-02: Republican Scott Rigell, trailing Rep. Glenn Nye by about a million bucks in the cash department, is dumping another $500K of his own money into his campaign, according to a spokesman. That brings his total self-loans to a pretty hefty $1.4 million.

WI-07: An interesting catch from WisPolitics: Just a week before announcing his retirement, Rep. Dave Obey spent $30,000 on polling. That means he took some very thorough surveys before deciding to hang up his spurs. He also still has a million bucks on hand – which will hopefully be making its way to the DCCC before long.

NY-AG: Definitely down in the weeds, but this is SSP, after all: SurveyUSA has a poll of the New York Attorney General’s race, a seat that’s open this year because the sitting one-term AG, Andrew Cuomo, is running for governor. Nassau County DA Kathleen Rice is the clear frontrunner with 32%. Assemblyman Richard Brodsky and state Sen. Eric Schneiderman are both at 9, while wealthy trial lawyer Sean Coffey and former state Ins. Comm’r (not an elected job)/former Securities Bureau chief at the AG’s office Eric Dinallo are both at 7. Part of the reason I’m posting this, though, is because I genuinely have no idea who I want to support. So I’m asking the New Yorkers here: who are you backing in this race, and why?

Zata|3 (D) for Talk Business (7/17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 32

John Boozman (R): 57

Trevor Drown (I): 3

John Gray (G): 2

Undecided: 6

Mike Beebe (D-inc): 50

Jim Keet (R): 41

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±3.7%)

This is the first non-Rasmussen poll of the race following the June runoff, and while it’s certainly a little gaudy for John Boozman, I have every reason to believe this is going to be a painful race to watch. Somewhat frustratingly, Zata3 doesn’t provide party breakdowns (PDF). I’ll also note that their sample is older and more male than the 2008 exit polls, though of course, 2010 ain’t 2008.

Mike Beebe’s numbers also stand out – not because they’re terrible or anything, but because pretty much everyone had him figured as unassailable, even in a year like this. Indeed, PPP has regularly found him to be one of the most popular governors in the nation, a pretty remarkable feat given how badly almost every incumbent is performing. So it’s possible that these numbers are a little too good for Keet, a former state legislator who hasn’t held office since 1996 and who’s been absolutely swamped on the fundraising front. I definitely would like to see confirmation before concluding this race might be competitive.

Gov. Joe Manchin has apparently struck a deal with state legislators that will set a special election for Robert Byrd’s Senate seat this fall:

Under the draft agreement lawmakers were shown at about 5 p.m., voters would go to the polls for an Aug. 28 for a primary to choose party nominees and then again Nov. 2 for a general election. Candidates who have already filed for an office would be allowed to run in the special Senate election. The provision would allow someone like Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, the Republican’s most prominent candidate, to run for reelection in the House but also take a shot at serving out Robert Byrd’s unexpired term, which ends in Jan. 2013. The deal ended an impasse between the House and Senate that began Saturday.

Letting Capito have a free crack at this race is utterly baffling, and I hope it doesn’t prove to be a too-cute-by-half move that ultimately backfires. Sure, Joe “The Manchine” Manchin will be formidable in any West Virginia election, but one Martha Coakley wasn’t supposed to lose, either…

Magellan Strategies: (7/18, likely Republican primary voters, 7/8 in parentheses):

Karen Handel: 38 (32)

Nathan Deal: 20 (18)

Eric Johnson: 17 (12)

John Oxendine: 12 (18)

Ray McBerry: 3 (3)

Jeff Chapman: 3 (3)

Otis Putnam: 0 (0)

Undecided: 7 (14)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

Mason-Dixon for Georgia Newspapers (7/15-16, likely Republican primary voters, 7/8-13 in parentheses):

Karen Handel: 29 (23)

John Oxendine: 22 (31)

Nathan Deal: 20 (18)

Eric Johnson: 13 (6)

Ray McBerry: 2 (2)

Jeff Chapman: 1 (1)

Undecided: 13 (19)

(MoE: ±5%)

InsiderAdvantage (7/14, likely Republican primary voters, 7/1 in parentheses):

Karen Handel: 24 (18)

Nathan Deal: 16 (12)

John Oxendine: 15 (18)

Eric Johnson: 13 (8)

Jeff Chapman: 6 (6)

Ray McBerry: 3 (3)

Otis Putnam: 1 (1)

Undecided: 22 (34)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Three different polls are out today of the Republican gubernatorial primary (to be held tomorrow). If one thing’s certain, it’s that Karen Handel, the former SoS, is likely to be one of the participants in the runoff. There’s now a pitched battle for 2nd place, between Nathan Deal, John Oxendine (falling out of a solid first just weeks ago), and even state Sen. Eric Johnson (who went on a last-minute TV ad binge).

Handel’s recent success has lots to do with Sarah Palin and Jan Brewer endorsements, but also with a good ad strategy: branding herself the “reformer” and hitting her opponents’ corruption. With Deal having bailed out early from the House to avoid getting nailed on ethics problems, and now with allegations just emerging over the last few weeks regarding linkages between Oxendine‘s regulatory activities as insurance commissioner, and big payouts from those insurers he’s supposed to regulate, the ads wrote themselves.

Pollster.com’s regression lines paint a pretty clear picture of the last few weeks: