SSP Daily Digest: 2/11

• CA-Sen: The latest in palace intrigue in California supposes that Meg Whitman managed to pave the way for Tom Campbell’s exit from the gubernatorial race and move to the Senate race, culminating in a private appeal to Campbell from Arnold Schwarzenegger to switch (using a soft touch, instead of the alleged sledgehammer that the Steve Poizner camp accuses Whitman’s camp of wielding). Campbell says no, he made the decision all on his own (helped along by some internal polling, no doubt).

• FL-Sen: Continuing his role as right-wing kingmaker, or rainmaker, or rainy kingmaker, Jim DeMint orchestrated a moneybomb over recent days for upstart Florida candidate Marco Rubio that pulled in over $140K.

• SC-Sen: Attorney Chad McGowan, as close as the Dems have to a leading candidate to take on Jim DeMint this year, ended his campaign, citing family demands. It’s possible, though, that McGowan’s exit may lead to a slight upgrade (although not likely the kind that puts the race into play): Charleston Co. Commissioner Vic Rawl is now contemplating making the race, and self-financing Mullins McLeod is weighing a switch over from the gubernatorial bid where he’s made little headway in a better-defined Democratic field.

• TX-Sen: It’s looking less and less likely that the Texas Senate special election is ever going to happen (most likely, Kay Bailey Hutchison will wind up serving out the rest of her term in ignominy). If she does resign at some point, though, it doesn’t look too promising for Democrats. PPP tested a generic ballot on the race, with Generic Republican winning 53-38. Former comptroller John Sharp may be in position to overperform Generic D a bit, but it’d still be an uphill climb. For one thing, he’d be running against Barack Obama’s very low 33/61 approval in Texas.

• CT-Gov: Former state House speaker Jim Amann ended his bid for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination today. That he was even in the race may be news to most Connecticut residents, given his low-single-digits support in recent polling, and Ned Lamont and ex-Stamford mayor Dan Malloy gobbling up most of the oxygen.

• MI-Gov: In the wake of Denise Ilitch’s surprising decision to stand down, a different Democrat got into the gubernatorial field: former state treasurer (from the 1980s) Bob Bowman. He’s been out of state for a long time, most recently as the CEO of major league baseball’s interactive media wing, but if he’s willing to self-finance, he could be an interesting wildcard here.

• WI-Gov: Details are sketchy, but a Democratic internal poll by the Mellman Group finds a very tight gubernatorial race, quite in line with what other pollsters have seen. Democratic Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett leads Republican Milwaukee Co. Exec Scott Walker 40-39. There’s no word on a Barrett/Mark Neumann matchup.

• AL-05: Another catastrophic success for the NRCC, as they blasted their newest member with some friendly fire. Pete Sessions sent out a fundraising letter to AL-05 voters letting them know that their “Democrat in Congress has been falling in line with Nancy Pelosi’s destructive liberal agenda..” One small problem: Parker Griffith is now, quite famously, a Republican.

• AR-01: Unlike the deeply troublesome KS-03 and LA-03, thanks to their deep Arkansas bench, Democrats don’t seem to be having trouble finding a replacement to run for the seat of retiring Rep. Marion Berry. The latest to step up is state Sen. Steve Bryles, who represents Blytheville in this mostly-rural district’s northeast corner.

• AZ-03: It looks like a big Democratic name may be interested in tackling the GOP-leaning open seat left behind by retiring Rep. John Shadegg, after all. Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon has opened up an exploratory committee to consider a run, and has set a three or four-week timetable for deciding. Democratic attorney Jon Hulburd is already running and has had some fundraising success as well, so it seems unlikely he’d get out of the way for the more conservative Gordon.

• CA-19: An internal poll by POS offered by state Sen. Jeff Denham shows the Republican candidate with a solid lead over his carpetbagging neighbor, ex-Rep. Richard Pombo. Denham leads Pombo 28-12 in the GOP primary, and that expands to 38-11 when voters were informed that outgoing Rep. George Radanovich has endorsed Denham.

• CA-44: Yet another internal poll, this one from Tulchin and released by Democratic challenger Bill Hedrick, who came within a few thousand votes of upsetting Rep. Ken Calvert in 2008. Calvert has lousy re-elects – 38% say ‘yes’ while 41% say someone else – but Calvert leads a head-to-head against Hedrick, 49-35.

• FL-21, FL-25: New names are already surfacing for potential candidates in the 25th, where Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart is creating an open seat by leaving for the somewhat safer 21st, vacated by his retiring brother, Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart. One name moving to the forefront is termed-out Republican state Sen. Majority leader Alex Diaz de la Portilla. However, it sounds like Mario plans to endorse state Rep. David Rivera (who’s currently running for state Senate) instead. Two other possible GOP names include state Sen. Alex Villalobos, and Carlos Curbelo, currently an aide to Sen. George LeMieux. Joe Garcia, who came close to taking out Mario in 2008, seems to be the Dems’ preferred candidate (although he previously ruled out a re-run, he might reconsider with an open seat).

• IA-01: Republicans landed Some Dude to run against Rep. Bruce Braley in the Dem-leaning 1st, a district which hasn’t been on anyone’s radar so far: insurance salesman Brian Cook. The NRCC had previously touted businessman Rod Blum for the race, but he says he’s leaning against a bid.

• MA-10: Yet one more internal poll, and this one’s a little alarming for Democratic Rep. Bill Delahunt, who nobody thought of as a target until his district went strongly for Scott Brown in the Senate special election. The McLaughlin poll on behalf of Republican former state treasurer Joe Malone gives Malone a 37-34 lead over Delahunt among likely voters. Delahunt is still in positive territory, approval-wise, at 44/33.

• MS-01: Maybe this is the oppo that insiders said would sink Fox News pundit Angela McGlowan’s House bid before it got out of the gate. In a radio interview last year, she suggested that gun owners should include an inventory of their guns on their federal tax forms, and in defending the idea went on to talk about “crazies… stockpiling guns.” Starting out in a probably gun-loving district with a proposal that wouldn’t pass muster among House Democrats, and framing it with decidedly lefty-sounding language… well, that’s probably a deal-breaker.

• NC-08: Free advice to candidates, not just Democrats but anyone: don’t waste time worrying about what people are saying in the anonymous comments section of blogs. (And, yes, I realize the irony of that coming from an pseudonymous blogger.) But most of all, don’t actually get so hot under the collar that you weigh in in the comments section and embarrass yourself in the process. Tim D’Annunzio seems to be the leading GOP contender in the 8th, thanks in large measure to his self-funding, but his recent foray into the comments section at the Charlotte Observer (to defend his machine-gun-shooting fundraiser) may have cast his candidacy in a decidedly amateurish light.

• OH-14: Here’s a swing district that has consistently eluded Democrats, where they’ve finally nailed down a challenger. Retired judge Bill O’Neill is back for another whack at Rep. Steve LaTourette in the suburban 14th. O’Neill ran against LaTourette in 2008 and didn’t get much traction that year, though.

• Census: Here’s some good news on the redistricting front: the Census Bureau has given states the green light to decide whether to count prisons as part of the local population, or whether to count prisoners according to their previous place of residence. The Census will provide states with ‘group quarters’ information to help them with the process. That’s an especially big deal in New York, where the legislature is considering legislation that would count prisoners by previous residence, which would decidedly tip the balance away from GOP-leaning rural areas and back toward the cities.

• Redistricting: Some bad news on redistricting, though, from South Dakota (although, with its at-large House seat, it’ll really only have an impact on state legislative redistricting). A legislative committee shot down plans to switch to an independent redistricting commission. Democrats proposed the idea, and unsurprisingly, the plan died along party lines (not much incentive for the GOP to switch, as they control the trifecta and probably will for the foreseeable future).

• Dogcatcher: With Martha Coakley’s announcement that she’s going to attempt to run for re-election, the whole idea of getting elected dogcatcher is back on people’s minds. You may recall we had an extended thread on the matter some months ago… and here’s an interesting discovery. There’s an actual place in America – Duxbury, Vermont – where it’s an elective position. (H/t David Kowalski.) Zeb Towne’s term expires in 2010, so we’ll keep monitoring this race as events warrant.

StephenCLE’s 2010 House Predictions – Part 3

StephenCLE’s House Predictions Part 3 – The Upper South

Welcome to the third installment of my 2010 baseline predictions for the US House of Representatives.  In this section, I will overview all the seats in the Upper South region, consisting of Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and North Carolina.  This region, in terms of politics, has undergone a lot of change in recent times, with the areas east of the Appalachians turning blue and those in the mountains and west turning red.  It’s hard to call this region solidly in the camp of one side or the other.

Current region breakdown – 42 seats (23 Dem, 19 Rep)

Virginia-1 – Rob Wittman/Republican – Wittman won his 2008 re-election by 15%, which was actually his first re-election since he was initially voted in via a 2007 special election.  That was better than McCain, who only beat Obama by 3.  Surprisingly, the Democrats have two candidates in the race worth noting, Scott Robinson and Krystal Ball (which is a phenomenal candidate name!).  Wittman has raised 597k for his re-election, compared to 386k for Ball and 270k for Robinson.  It’s hard to imagine either democrat winning here unless Wittman blunders on the campaign trail, but this seat has the potential to be a sleeper, kind of like Maine-1.

District PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

Virginia-2 – Glenn Nye/Democrat – This seat is going to be a battleground for sure.  Glenn Nye won this seat in his first run for elected office in 2008, defeating conservative firebrand Thelma Drake by 5%.  Obama also carried the district but only be a scant 2%.  The Republican primary is shaping up to be a battle.  The frontrunner is business owner Scott Rigell, who has raised 666k thus far.  He faces competition from Ben Loyola and Bert Mizusawa though, who are both over 200k raised as well.  Nye himself has raised 1.09 million, and certainly has the campaigning skills to back it up in the face of a bad national environment.  It’s going to be a fight no matter how the Republican primary shakes out.

District PVI – R+5

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup (6th overall)

Total Pickup Counter – Rep +4

Virginia-3 – Bobby Scott/Democrat – The 3rd is the most democratic district in Virginia, and Scott won uncontested in 2008.  He’s safe.

District PVI – D+20

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Virginia-4 – Randy Forbes/Republican – The 4th district was one of the shockers of the nation in the 2008 presidential election, as Obama beat McCain 50-49 in this conservative district. Forbes, the entrenched incumbent, defeated Andrea Miller by 19% in 2008, and with her being the only democrat in the field for 2010, it looks like a rematch is coming.  In other words, this looks like a sure retention.

District PVI – R+4

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Virginia-5 – Tom Perriello/Democrat – Perriello is perhaps one of the most vulnerable democrats in the entire country heading into 2010.  He won by less than 1% over Virgil Goode, in a district where Obama fell by 3% against John McCain.  The good news for Perriello is that his fundraising has topped 1 million, and the Republican primary looks to be a heated affair between James McKelvey, Lawrence Verga, and Robert Hurt.  McKelvey is arguably the favorite, having received over 501k in donations thus far.  Perriello’s problem goes far beyond money though, because unlike Nye and some other democrats, Perriello has voted for virtually all major democratic legislation this session, including health care and cap-n-trade.  That’s going to make things really difficult for him.  There’s no doubt the base will turn out to Perriello to the bitter end, I just wonder if that base is big enough.

District PVI – R+5  

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup (7th overall)

Total Pickup Count – Rep +5

Virginia-6 – Robert Goodlatte/Republican – This district is very conservative in nature, and includes a lot of the Appalachian west of the state.  Goodlatte doesn’t have any opposition yet, and won’t have any trouble holding this seat.

District PVI – R+12

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Virginia-7 – Eric Cantor/Republican – In this mostly republican district, the well established Cantor has only 2008 Dem candidate Anita Hartke to worry about.  In other words, he ain’t worrying too much.

District PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Virginia-8 – James Moran/Democrat – Unlike a lot of democrats that have gotten caught up in Virginia’s sudden turn back to the right in 2009/10, Moran doesn’t have to lose sleep over his seat, which is heavily Democratic.  There are three republicans running in the primary but they all have a very steep climb in a district that went 69-30 for Obama.  

District PVI – D+14

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Virginia-9 Rick Boucher/Democrat – This has turned into a very tough region for Democrats, the Appalachian southwest of the state, but Boucher is a fairly entrenched incumbent.  He actually ran unopposed in 2008, but this time he won’t be so lucky as the Repubs will look to take advantage of the district’s rightward swing.  So far they only have 2 undistinguished names in the Republican primary, but the 2000-lb elephant in the room is Terry Kilgore, who may or may not run.  If he does run, Boucher’s in a lot of trouble.  If he doesn’t, then he’s probably going to win.  Thus, I’ll take the middle road for now.

District PVI – R+11

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Virginia-10 – Frank Wolf/Republican – In many ways this exurban DC northern Virginia district is the opposite of VA-9, a district that is rapidly turning blue but has an entrenched Republican incumbent.  Wolf rose above the blue tide in 2008 and netted 60% of the vote, a very impressive statement.  The Dems would need somebody of Mark Warner’s popularity to beat him in this environment.

District PVI – R+2

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Virginia-11 – Gerry Connolly/Democrat – This district, in the heart of “NoVA”, was once solidly Republican but has taken an extreme swing to the left in the past decade, as Obama cleaned up by 15% in 2008.  The blue wave helped Connolly, who picked up the open seat here by 11%.  That’s not overwhelming strength, but the good news for Connolly is, unlike some other districts in the state, the Republican field here is really unsettled.  2008 candidate Keith Fimian, a businessman, is running again, but against him are state senator Tim Hugo, former CIA officer Rocky Johnson, and Fairfax County commissioner Pat Herrity.  None of these are fundraising giants either, so between that and the district’s blue-ing trend, I think Connolly is in very good shape.

District PVI – D+2

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

West Virginia-1 – Alan Mollohan/Democrat – We move now into West Virginia, a state that is a bit of a political enigma.  The state is trending rapidly to the right at the federal level, but is still quite democratic locally.  Mollohan is a long entrenched incumbent, who was unopposed in 2008, but he has had to face questions about his ethics following a string of earmarks to non-profit organizations that he may have been close with.  He’s been cleared of charges, but the Repubs are going after him anyway.  Business executive David McKinley is the favorite of the party, but there are six candidates vying for the Republican primary.  It remains to be seen whether Mollohan still has the ability to really campaign, as he hasn’t had to do it in quite a while.

District PVI – R+9

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

West Virginia-2 – Shelley Capito/Republican – Capito appeared vulnerable in 2008 but defeated her democratic challenger by a wider than expected margin.  Given the rightward swing of the state, it’s hard to imagine the Dems contending here.

District PVI – R+8

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

West Virginia-3 – Nick Rahall/Democrat – Rahall is a very entrenched incumbent, and unlike Mollohan, doesn’t seem to have any internal issues that might make him vulnerable.  Despite the conservatism of the district, this one should be a slam dunk.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Kentucky-1 – Ed Whitfield/Republican – Whitfield is well entrenched, and this part of Kentucky, the western part of the state, is intensely republican.  Easy hold.

District PVI – R+15

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Kentucky-2 – Brett Guthrie/Republican – Guthrie had to gut out a close 5% open seat race in 2008 against David Boswell, which was surprising considering that McCain obliterated Obama by 23% in KY-2, which runs over west-central Kentucky.  It is a very conservative district, but Guthrie’s sizeable underperformance against the top of the ticket makes me wonder if he may have some individual weakness.  08 Dem candidate Boswell is undecided at present, but another candidate, state representative Edward Marksberry has recently declared, so to some extent this seat will be competitive.  A pickup is very unlikely though.

District PVI – R+15

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

Kentucky-3 – John Yarmuth/Democrat – This is the lone Dem-leaning district in Kentucky, which pretty much centers around greater Louisville.  Yarmuth defeated incumbent Anne Northup by 2 points in 2006, then crushed her by 20 in the rematch.  His fundraising has been very good so far (665k), and shows that expects a competitive race even though it may not come.  There are five repubs running in the primary, but none are all that exceptional.  

District PVI – D+2

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Kentucky-4 – Geoff Davis/Republican – This northern Kentucky district, like many in this state, is intensely conservative in nature.  Davis is well entrenched, and should have no problem.

District PVI – R+14

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Kentucky-5 – Harold Rogers/Republican – Rogers ran unopposed in 2008, and may do so again in 2010.  Even if there is a challenge here, it won’t get very far in this republican bastion.

District PVI – R+16

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold  

Kentucky-6 – Ben Chandler/Democrat – This is a fairly hostile seat outside of the liberal haven of Lexington, which is where I believe Chandler hails from.  This is a district that supported McCain by a 55-43 count, but Chandler won by 29% over his 2008 opponent, suggesting that he has dug himself into the district pretty deep.  That being said, he has a pretty serious opponent in 2008, attorney Andy Barr, who has raised over 300k thus far.  Chandler has raised almost twice that however.  The partisan lean of this district and the environment has me nervous about this district, but like Alan Mollohan in WV-1, it seems Chandler will be awfully hard to dislodge.

District PVI – R+9

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Tennessee-1 – Phil Roe/Republican – This is one of the most Republican districts in the country, and Roe won an open seat race here in 2008 by 47%.  Forgettaboutit.

District PVI – R+21

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Tennessee-2 – John Duncan/Republican – This district is also intensely conservative, and Duncan has been around since the 80s.  I think we can write this one off too.  Dems are pretty much DOA in eastern TN.

District PVI – R+17

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Tennessee-3 – Open/Republican – The Democrats appeared to have small chance at pulling off an upset here in the dark red 3rd when former state insurance commissioner Paula Flowers jumped in.  With a fractured Republican primary field, the chance of an injured survivor taking on Flowers made this district one to watch.  But now she’s dropped out due to family concerns, and without her, the Dems don’t even have a candidate.  Shame, but really, it wasn’t likely she was going to win anyway in this environment.

District PVI – R+13

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Tennessee-4 – Lincoln Davis/Democrat – Now here is another case of a democratic incumbent holding onto a hostile district.  Lincoln Davis was able to defeat his republican opponent by 20% in 2008, but the bottom totally fell out in the presidential race, as Obama was demolished by McCain by 30%.  For a district that nearly voted for Gore in 2000, that’s a brutal drop.  The question is can the Repubs take advantage of that drop.  Four republicans are running in the primary, and the most notable of them are physician Scott Desjarlais and attorney Jack Bailey.  Davis’s fundraising this cycle, just 400k, is somewhat underwhelming for an incumbent in a district like this.  Maybe I’m just very pessimistic on this one, but I think unless the Republican primary is a brutal and bloody affair, Davis is going down because this district has moved out from under him very quickly.

District PVI – R+13

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Moderate Rep Pickup

Total Pickup Count – Rep +6

Tennessee-5 – Jim Cooper/Democrat – Cooper had no trouble winning re-election in 2008, winning by 34% while Obama defeated McCain by 13%.  As far as I know the Repubs don’t have much in the way of opposition here, just some no-namers in the primary field.  That won’t get it done here.

District PVI – D+3

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Tennessee-6 – Open/Democrat – This is, without question, the worst open seat dilemma the Democrats are facing in the 2010 House cycle.  Bart Gordon’s decision to pack his bags has really left the Dems in a bind in a very republican district.  In fact, the situation is worse considering that three republican candidates, Diane Black, Lou Ann Zelenik, and Jim Tracy have already raised 150k or more for their runs at the seat.  The Democrats don’t even have a confirmed candidate yet.  This situation, along with the huge republican lean of the district and the environment tells me we have no shot here.

District PVI – R+13

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Pickup

Total Pickup Count – Rep +7

Tennessee-7 – Marsha Blackburn/Republican – Blackburn is very safe in this district, which amounts to a republican vote sink in western Tennessee.

District PVI – R+18

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Tennessee-8 – Open/Democratic – Another R-leaning open seat for the Dems.  This is precisely why Tennessee is probably the worst state in the nation going into 2010 for Team Blue.  This seat supported McCain by a 13% margin in 2008, and the seat has drifted away from democrats in general, but not as much as TN-4 or TN-6.  Surprisingly, it appears that both sides have agreed on a candidate already, as farmer Stephen Fincher has settled in well ahead of the Republican primary field.  On the Dem side, state senator Roy Herron is the guy, as he stepped down from a run at the governorship to run here in TN-8.  Both have raised approximately 680k thus far, so we’re looking at a toss-up battle at the moment.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup

Total Pickup Count – Rep +8

Tennessee-9 – Steve Cohen/Democratic – Finally we hit the Memphis-based 9th, the only truly safe D seat in Tennessee and also the only VRA seat in the state.  Cohen is being primaried by Willie Herenton but it’s doubtful that he’ll lose that.  Even if the sullied Herenton were to win, it’s unlikely the Repubs would be able to mount much of a challenge.  

District PVI – D+23

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

North Carolina-1 – George Butterfield/Democrat – We move now into North Carolina, a state that has moved in the blue direction recently.  This district, in the northeastern part of the state, is essentially a racial gerrymander to comply with the VRA.  That makes the seat very democratic, and while the republicans have a half decent candidate in insurance executive Ashley Woolard, it’s not likely that she’ll make much headway against Butterfield.

District PVI – D+9

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

North Carolina-2 – Bob Etheridge/Democrat – This district is actually a swing battleground, but you’d never know it watching Etheridge score 67% of the vote in 2008.  Obama did win, but only by 5%.  Ultimately the Republican challenge here doesn’t look like much anyway.  

District PVI – R+2

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

North Carolina-3 – Walter Jones/Republican – This is the other racially gerrymandered district in the northeast part of the state, and this one has all the white people in it.  Seeing as we’re in the south, I don’t think I need to go much further than that.  

District PVI – R+16

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

North Carolina-4 – David Price/Democrat – The Raleigh-Durham based 4th is the most democratic of all parts of the state, well, at least of those that occur naturally.  Price isn’t likely to be challenged much here.

District PVI – D+8

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

North Carolina-5 – Virginia Foxx/Republican – The 5th, which encompasses Appalachian territory in the northwest corner of the state, is solidly republican.  Even a firebrand like Foxx can pretty much breathe easily in a district like this.

District PVI – R+15

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

North Carolina-6 – Howard Coble/Republican – This is one of the most republican districts in the nation, which isn’t surprising given that some of the districts around it are racially gerrymandered.  No chance here.

District PVI – R+18

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

North Carolina-7 – Mike McIntyre/Democrat – Here’s a rarity, a democrat representing a republican-leaning district in the south that has virtually no competition for re-election.  2008 Repub candidate Will Breazeale is the only challenger, and he lost by 37% last time around.

District PVI – R+5

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

North Carolina-8 – Larry Kissell/Democrat – This is an intriguing seat to predict.  Kissell won this seat by 11% in 2008 while Obama scored a 5% win over McCain.  His win followed a 2006 campaign that was impressive though he fell short.  It’s notable that he performed well in both years despite not being a great fundraiser, which is good because his fundraising numbers haven’t been all that great so far.  More good news, the Republican field is fractured big time, with 7 candidates in the race.  I think whoever emerges on the Repub side could raise funds and have a shot at this, but their odds aren’t as good as the NRCC might think.

District PVI – R+2

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

North Carolina-9 – Susan Myrick/Republican – In this affluent, suburban Charlotte district, Sue Myrick is pretty well entrenched and she’s got the back of a republican lean.  The Dems aren’t likely to challenge this seat this cycle but it should be noted that the whole Charlotte area is trending blue fairly rapidly.  If NC-12 is broken up in the next redistricting (and it SHOULD be) Myrick could be in trouble.

District PVI – R+11

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

North Carolina-10 – Patrick McHenry/Republican – This seat isn’t much to see, McHenry’s a very conservative fellow in a very conservative district.  

District PVI – R+17

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

North Carolina-11 – Heath Shuler/Democrat – This Appalachian district is somewhat conservative in nature, though not quite as much as the neighboring 5th and 10th.  Shuler has projected a centrist profile for the most part, and he’s well liked in the district.  Better yet, the Republicans don’t have a top tier candidate to face him, and Shuler has already banked 586k, over 500k more than any of his challengers.  Right now it’s hard for me to see him losing.  Still, as with just about any R-leaning district in the south, I can’t completely rule it out.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

North Carolina-12 – Mel Watt/Democrat – Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the most hideous gerrymander in America.  It’s a safe dem district for sure, and Watt will have no trouble retaining the seat, but could they try to make that less of an eyesore in redistricting?  Please??

District PVI – D+16

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

North Carolina-13 – Brad Miller/Democrat – This is a fairly democratic district in north central NC, and Miller is fairly well established.  I don’t see a challenger in the field that could make this district interesting in 2010.

District PVI – D+5

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Region Recap – The Upper South is going to be one of the toughest regions for the Democrats in 2010, of that I am sure.  Open seats in Tennessee are partly responsible for that indigestion.  Overall, I see the Dems losing 5 seats and picking up none, giving the Republicans 10 total pickups to the Democrats’ 2.

Current region breakdown – 23 Dem, 19 Rep

Projected breakdown after 2010 – 24 Rep, 18 Dem

Next stop…The South Atlantic

IN-Sen: Bayh Comfy; Hostettler Outperforms Coats

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (2/8-10, likely voters)

Evan Bayh (D-inc): 55

Dan Coats (R): 35

Undecided: 10

Evan Bayh (D-inc): 53

John Hostettler (R): 37

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±3.2%)

Looks like the Republicans aren’t quite putting Indiana into highly competitive play the way they thought they would, with the entry of former Senator Dan Coats to the race. Coats not only trails Evan Bayh by 20, but my suspicions from yesterday were confirmed: long-forgotten establishment figure Coats doesn’t match up against Bayh as well as ex-Rep. John Hostettler — whose 12 years in the House (washed in with the wave in 1994, and washed out with the wave in 2006) revealed him as a quirky ultra-right-winger and an incompetent campaigner — does.

Dan Coats’ rollout as Senate candidate over the last week is already on track to be legendary in its badness, but I don’t think that alone can account for these numbers. Much of it may be that, after 12 years out of the Senate (and 18 years since having run for anything), nobody remembers Coats; there are genuinely middle-aged people who may have lived in Indiana their whole lives and still never had a chance to vote for Coats. Coats (38/34 approval) is actually less-known than Rep. John Hostettler (40/33), who only represented 1/9th of the state but at least had the virtue of sticking his foot in his mouth often enough to make sure he got in the news. Meanwhile, while Bayh certainly isn’t a favorite among the netroots, he’s doing just fine at home, with 61/33 approvals. (UPDATE: In an attempt to change perceptions and get some footing in Indiana, Dan Coats is taking one for the team and actually… gasp… renting a house in Indianapolis.)

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-Sen

VA-05: Perriello Just May Survive

PPP (pdf) (2/5-10, likely voters)

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 44

Robert Hurt (R): 44

Undecided: 13

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 41

Robert Hurt (R): 12

Virgil Goode (I): 41

Undecided: 6

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 44

Robert Hurt (R): 27

Generic Teabagger (I): 19

Undecided: 10

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 46

Ken Boyd (R): 42

Undecided: 12

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 45

Jim McKelvey (R): 37

Undecided: 18

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 45

Michael McPadden (R): 36

Undecided: 19

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 44

Lawrence Verga (R): 34

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±3.2%)

Mainstream media pundits have pretty much already left Rep. Tom Perriello for dead. Between having the narrowest margin of victory of any Democrat in 2008 (900-odd votes over then-Rep. Virgil Goode) and sitting in a rural R+5 district that went strongly for Bob McDonnell in November’s gubernatorial race, he was already viewed as endangered — and when he cast theoretically risky votes for cap and trade and health care reform instead of hiding under a pile of coats with the Blue Dogs, well, it was an open and shut case, right? Guess again: PPP finds Perriello tied with his strongest Republican opposition, state Sen. Robert Hurt, and winning rather convincingly against the assortment of other random Republicans. (As a bonus, PPP promises GOP primary numbers tomorrow, so we can see if Hurt, an establishment figure who’s had a big target painted on his back by not just the teabaggers but also the CfG/Grover Norquist set, is getting hurt by the GOP schism.) Don’t pop the bubbly yet, of course: Perriello’s still well below the 50% safety mark.

One thing I love about PPP is how willing they are to try out every possible permutation, and they do that here, with a three-way against an unnamed tea party independent (although Generic Teabagger already has a name in this race… it’s Bradley Rees), where Perriello effectively rides the split to victory over Hurt, and a three-way with ex-Rep. Virgil Goode as an independent (something he’s threatened, although hasn’t taken steps towards). There, it’s actually a Perriello/Goode tie, with Hurt getting a woeful 12%. This is interesting, as Goode is basically functioning as a non-generic teabagger; if there’s one guy out there who seems tailor-made for the Tea Party movement, it’s Goode, who briefly served as an independent in between being a Dem (when first elected) and a GOPer, and whose odd, ideologically incoherent mix of libertarianism, populism, and xenophobic crackpottery seems like the teabagger template.

Also worth noting: Goode is the only person in the whole poll who’s in positive territory (58/29). Not Barack Obama (although he’s at a surprisingly not-bad 46/50), not Perriello (42/46),  not Hurt (15/15), and certainly not the other GOP odds and ends.

RaceTracker Wiki: VA-05

FL-21, FL-25: Lincoln Diaz-Balart Will Retire, Switcheroo in the Works

Remember this scenario? The one where Charlie Crist was supposed to tap GOP Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart to fill the seat of Sen. Mel Martinez, followed by Lincoln’s brother, 25th CD Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart running for Lincoln’s 21st seat in the special election?

Looks like something like that may actually happen, only Lincoln has decided to make a straight-up retirement. From HotlineOnCall:

Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-FL) will announce later today he will not seek another term, CongressDaily reports this morning. […]

The district is heavily Hispanic, thanks to Miami’s large Cuban population. 73% of district residents call themselves Hispanic, while just 16% are white. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) won a narrow 51%-49% victory in the seat.

First elected in ’92, Diaz-Balart has had little trouble holding on to his seat. His brother, Mario, represents another heavily-Cuban part of Miami. CongressDaily reports that Mario Diaz-Balart will abandon his district to run in Lincoln’s, which is seen as tilting more toward the GOP.

Now, unlike the recent retirements of Republicans like Steve Buyer, Vernon Ehlers, and George Radanovich, this open seat situation could potentially yield a pair of races worth watching.

Unlike Al Gore and John Kerry, Obama performed well in both the 21st and the 25th, picking up 49% in both districts. The 21st CD has been the stronger of the two districts historically for Republicans, and I’d expect that Mario’s candidacy would be a formidable stopgap for the GOP there. But if Mario does indeed make this move, his open seat in the 25th CD, where he only won 53% in 2008, could yield an interesting race to watch if Democrats can find a solid challenger.

UPDATE: Mario has confirmed that he’ll run for his brother’s seat.

RaceTracker Wiki: FL-21 | FL-25

SSP Daily Digest: 2/10

• AZ-Sen: This has to be a bit of disappointment for J.D. Hayworth, as he mounts a right-wing primary challenge to John McCain: South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, who’s been active in endorsing insurgent candidates in GOP primaries and whose stamp of approval has become the gold standard for aspiring wingnuts, has declined to get involved in the Arizona primary.

• CA-Sen: Bringing to the table the business acumen and keen understanding of the law that made her such a smashing success at Hewlett-Packard, Carly Fiorina put forth a worst-case scenario solution for the cash-strapped state of California: declaring bankruptcy. One slight problem here: while municipalities may, states can’t declare bankruptcy.

• IN-Sen: Former Sen. Dan Coats made his official announcement during a radio interview today, saying he’s “answering the call” to challenge Evan Bayh. Coats said he’s “off and running,” and by running, that means his staffers are running madly around the state trying to round up at least 500 signatures in each congressional district before the Feb. 16 filing deadline; so far, he has turned in no signatures at all (and his efforts may be greatly hampered by this week’s spell of inclement weather). At a more general level, Politico has a story today titled “The Nuking of Dan Coats,” a retrospective of all the damage Coats has sustained last week as the Dems (gunshy about a repeat of their asleep-at-the-wheel Massachusetts election) pounced quickly and rolled out pushback-free hit after hit on Coats’s lobbying past and residency.

• CA-Gov: Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown is sitting on more than $12 million, which would be enough to annihilate everyone and everything in sight in most states. But in freakishly-expensive California and facing billionaire Meg Whitman, who can cut herself a $20 million check the way most of us reach into the change jar on the way to the store, he needs a little outside help. He’s getting that from “Level the Playing Field 2010,” a coalition of unions and wealthy donors who are launching a $20 million independent expenditure effort of their own, to keep Whitman from dominating the airwaves here in the slow season.

• MI-Gov: This is kind of surprising, considering that she’d been getting a disproportionate share of the gubernatorial buzz, some not-so-subtle encouragement from inside the Beltway, and a primary lead in recent polling. Denise Ilitch, UM regent and one-time pro sports magnate & pizza baroness, decided today against a run for the Democratic nod. She pointed to the late date, saying there was too much catching-up to do at this point, although she said she’d be interested in running for something in the future. This means the Democratic field is likely to be centrist state House speaker Andy Dillon and populist Lansing mayor Virg Bernero going mano-a-mano.

• NY-Gov: You can tell it’s not shaping up to be a good week when it starts out with having to point out that, no, you’re not resigning. David Paterson batted down rumors about forthcoming resignation in the face of an allegedly-emerging sex scandal (which so far has yet to emerge), but something even more ominous is looming on the horizon: federal prosecutors are starting to look into alleged misdeeds related to awarding gambling contracts at the Aqueduct racetrack in Queens. The angle may be that the recipient, Aqueduct Entertainment Group, includes ex-Rep. Floyd Flake, still a prominent black leader in Queens and one who’d been pondering endorsing Andrew Cuomo instead in a primary, and that the contract may have been intended to curry Flake’s favor.

• PA-Gov: Scranton mayor Chris Doherty may be looking for an exit, although he maintains he’s staying in the Democratic primary field. Rumors have abounded that he’s looking to downshift to the Lt. Governor position, and the decision by two locally prominent pols (Wilkes-Barre mayor Tom Leighton and Luzerne Co. Commissioner Maryanne Petrilla) to back rival Dan Onorato instead may hasten his decision. Doherty is also getting urged to drop down to the state Senate, in order to hold the Scranton-area seat being vacated this year by Senate minority leader Robert Mellow (who just announced his retirement) after decades in the Senate. (However, SD-22 is Democratic-leaning and probably doesn’t need someone of Doherty’s stature to hold it.)

• RI-Gov: I’m not exactly sure where the rumors that Democratic state treasurer Frank Caprio was considering a switch to an independent or even Republican run for governor (presumably in order to avoid an irritating primary with more liberal AG Patrick Lynch, although polls have given Caprio the edge in that primary) were coming from, but Caprio tamped them down, confirming he’s staying on board as a Democrat. At any rate, regardless of how things sort out, it looks like Rhode Island will have a governor next year who’s in favor of gay marriage: Caprio, Lynch, and independent candidate Lincoln Chafee have all pledged to sign it into law. (Republican candidate John Robitaille won’t, although even he’s in favor of civil unions; polls have shown him to be an electoral non-factor though.)

• AL-05: Suddenly the floodgates are open in the 5th for Democratic challengers to former Dem Parker Griffith. Taze Shepard and Mitchell Howie both confirmed they’ll run yesterday, and now a third person has stepped forward: Steve Raby, a political consultant whose biggest claim to fame is a long stint as the chief of staff to Sen. Howell Heflin. A fourth possible candidate, former Huntsville school board president David Blair, however, said that he won’t get involved in the race. The filing deadline isn’t until April 2.

• CA-11: The establishment seems to be coming together behind attorney David Harmer as their pick in the GOP primary in the 11th, where there’s a wide assortment of Republicans, some of whom can self-fund, but none with an electoral background. Harmer, you’ll recall, ran in the special election in the much-bluer 10th last year and overperformed the district’s lean against then-Lt. Gov. John Garamendi. Harmer just got the endorsement of Reps. Wally Herger and Buck McKeon, as well as CA-11’s 2008 loser, former Assemblyman Dean Andal.

• CT-04: Ex-Rep. Chris Shays is starting to seem like he wants to run for something this year, seeing as how Republican fortunes are improving. He’d previously been linked with a gubernatorial run, but today’s rumor has him interested in a rematch against Rep. Jim Himes, who knocked him out in 2008. Shays would be a more imposing foe than the state Senators currently in the GOP field, but would still have an uphill run against the district’s D+5 lean.

• MA-AG: If politicians had to have professional licenses in order to practice, Martha Coakley’s would have been revoked for gross political malpractice. Instead, though, she’s free to run for re-election… and that’s just what she’s announced that she’s doing.

• OH-AG: A Republican internal poll from Newhouse gives ex-Sen. Mike DeWine a sizable edge over incumbent Democratic Richard Cordary in the Ohio AG’s race, 50-32. That’s actually plausible, as DeWine, who spent two terms as Senator, has much greater name recognition than Cordray, who filled in mid-term in the wake of Marc Dann’s resignation.

• NY-St. Sen.: The state Senate actually sacked up and did it: they expelled Hiram Monserrate, several months after his assault conviction. The vote was 53-8. A special election has been called for March 16 (in which Monserrate plans to run anyway); the compressed timetable is largely because Monserrate’s absence means the Dems are down to only a 31-30 edge in the Senate, making it impossible for the Dems to move legislation on party lines (as bills need 32 votes to pass).

• NY-St. Ass.: Bad news for suburban New York Democrats, who lost two separate Assembly seats in special elections last night (although one, in Suffolk County, is close enough that it could be salvaged through absentee ballots). The victory of Republican Robert Castelli in AD-89, centered on White Plains in affluent Westchester County, may be particularly alarming for Democrats, especially when coupled with the surprise loss of Westchester Co. Exec Andy Spano in November. It’s a bellwether-ish but generally Dem-leaning part of suburbia, and if it’s turning right, that could endanger state Sen. Andrea Stewart-Cousins (complicating Dem plans to expand the Senate majority) and possibly even NY-19 Rep. John Hall (who represents a further north, but more conservative, part of Westchester as part of his district). Assembly control, however, is hardly hanging in the balance: Dems now control the chamber 105-42-3.

TX-Gov: Bill White Polls Well for General Election

PPP (pdf) (2/4-7, likely voters)

Bill White (D): 42

Rick Perry (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 10

Bill White (D): 38

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 45

Undecided: 17

Bill White (D): 38

Debra Medina (R): 44

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±2.8%)

PPP (which had surprising Republican primary numbers yesterday, showing Kay Bailey Hutchison imperiled as far as even making it to a runoff) has some pretty encouraging numbers for Democratic candidate Bill White in the general election. White’s losing, but by a 6 or 7 point margin, a good showing in a generally conservative state like Texas. (On the down side, there aren’t a lot of undecideds here, especially in the Rick Perry matchup, so you have to wonder where the last few votes that would get him over the top might come from.)

Interestingly, unlike a lot of other polls which have shown Hutchison, who passes for a “moderate” by Texas standards, outperforming in the general, PPP finds everyone performing about the same vis-a-vis White, not just the very conservative Rick Perry but even the around-the-bend conservative Debra Medina. Perry’s approvals, a woeful 33/50, seem to be holding him back; KBH is at least in positive territory at 40/37, while Medina and White benefit from not being as well-known, at 32/13 and 34/17 respectively.

In other news, White just got the endorsement of the Texas League of Conservation Voters, while his primary opponent, Farouk Shami got a noteworthy endorsement of his own: from the Mexican American Democrats, who liked how his personal story represents “what the American Dream is all about.” I don’t think either of those endorsements can compete with the one Rick Perry just pulled in, though: the mighty Home Scholers.

RaceTracker Wiki: TX-Gov

StephenCLE’s 2010 House Predictions – Part 2

Predictions Part 2 – The Mid-Atlantic

The Mid-Atlantic is a mostly democratic region, but it’s not as impenetrable as the Northeast.  There are even parts of it that are really quite Republican in nature, especially in Pennsylvania.  There are quite a few competitive seats in this region too, moreso than in the Northeast.  

New Jersey-1 – Robert Andrews/Democrat – We start here in Philadelphia’s eastern suburbs, and where Andrews is well entrenched in a solidly democratic district.  Nothing to worry about for him.

District PVI – D+12

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New Jersey-2 – Frank Lobiondo/Republican – Having vacationed many a year on the south jersey coast, it annoys me that Lobiondo continues to skate in a D-leaning seat.  He won by 20% over David Kurkowski in 2008 while Obama beat McCain by 9 in this south jersey district.  Given that, and the fact that the Dems haven’t produced a top tier challenger, it’s doubtful Lobiondo is going anywhere.  It would’ve been nice if incoming governor Chris Christie picked him for Lt. Gov, which would’ve opened the seat up.

District PVI – D+1

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

New Jersey-3 – John Adler/Democrat – Adler picked this seat up in 2008 with a narrow 4% victory over Chris Myers.  He was a great fundraiser last cycle, allowing him to outspend Myers nearly 2-1, and he’s raised 1.4 million plus so far this cycle.  He caught a break when state senator Chris Connors didn’t run, but he still has to deal with NFL offensive tackle John Runyan.  A divisive primary is still possible though as local Republican committees in the 3rd are not on good terms with one another.  Ultimately I’m a bit skeptical of Republican chances here since rich athletes are often not well received by voters, though that’s not a hard and fast rule.  

District PVI – R+1

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

New Jersey-4 – Christopher Smith/Republican – What’s happened in the 4th?  After Al Gore carried the district in 2000, the district has since trended Republican.  McCain won by 5% over Obama and the entrenched Christopher won by 34%.  Sorry, this one ain’t happening.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

New Jersey-5 – Scott Garrett/Republican – The 5th district is a traditional Republican stronghold in the north of the state, and Garrett’s 12% win in 2008 largely mirrored the presidential vote there.  Though he’s been around since 2002 I don’t think of him as entrenched, but he’s not a liability either, and I don’t see a first or second tier democrat out there to make this a race.

District PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

New Jersey-6 – Frank Pallone/Democrat – The hideously shaped 6th, which runs from inland around Sandy Hook southward along the coast, is very Democratic.  It also has a well entrenched incumbent in Pallone.

District PVI – D+8

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New Jersey-7 – Leonard Lance/Republican – Lance’s 8-point win in 2008 was a bit of a shock, as he had won by only 1 point in 2006.  Lance has been a moderate, independent voice for the most part, a rarity amongst house republicans.  The Democrats do have several options here.  Fanwood mayor Colleen Mahr is a possible candidate, and businessman Ed Potosnak is in.  2006/8 candidate Linda Stender might be back for another round as well.  Lance’s ability to straddle the middle effectively will make him a tough out though, no matter who wins the Dem primary.

District PVI – R+3

Stephen’s Rating  – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

New Jersey-8 – Bill Pascrell/Democratic – Heading inward toward the NYC suburbs now, Pascrell has been around quite a while and has a nice democratic district.  And so far, he has no confirmed opposition either.  

District PVI – D+10

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New Jersey-9 – Steven Rothman/Democratic – This is another Dem-leaning district with a long standing incumbent.  A Republican challenge is probably not going to amount to much here.

District PVI – D+9

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New Jersey-10 – Donald Payne/Democratic – This is the most Democratic district in New Jersey, and one of the most Democratic in the nation.  No republican can beat these odds.

District PVI – D+33

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New Jersey-11 – Rodney Frelinghuysen/Republican – This is a mostly Republican district in the state’s northwest, and so far, the Democrats don’t even have a candidate against Frelinghuysen.  It’d be an uphill battle for sure against the entrenched incumbent.

District PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

New Jersey-12 – Rush Holt/Democratic – Another snake-like district here, which seems like a majority of districts in New Jersey.  Holt is pretty well entrenched, but his district isn’t overly democratic.  The republicans have three challengers thus far, and the most notable of them is Michael Halfacre.  I’m not sure that any of these Repubs can make this a race, but given the PVI and the national environment, I can’t completely rule out the possibility.

District PVI – D+5

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New Jersey-13 – Albio Sires/Democratic – This district isn’t quite as blue as NJ-10, but honestly, you’d need a cash in the freezer type of scandal to get a republican victory here.  

District PVI – D+21

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Delaware-1 – Open/Republican – Lordy lordy, now isn’t this a sight?  Mike Castle’s departure here has opened up Delaware’s lone House seat, and with Lt Governor John Carney in the race, this seems like a slam dunk for the Democrats.  The only confirmed Repub in the race is insurance salesman Fred Cullis.  While the national environment and the possible pull of Castle at the top of the ticket in the Senate race prevents me from moving this to lock status, it’d be very difficult for the Repubs to hold.

District PVI – D+7

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Pickup (1st overall)

Total Pickup Counter – Rep +2

Maryland-1 – Frank Kratovil/Democratic – Kratovil pulled an upset here in the first district in 2008 after Andy Harris knocked out incumbent Wayne Gilchrest in the primary.  The win total was less than 1%, in a district that went hard for McCain 58-40.  Harris is back, but he won’t have the primary for himself, as there are 3 other Repubs in the race.  Kratovil has raised 1.1 million so far, while Harris has topped 600k thus far, so unless Harris gets torpedoed, this is going to be knock-down drag out political warfare.  In the end, I think this district is simply too conservative for Kratovil.  Harris may not be able to rejoice even if he does win though, MD-1 is bound to become much more democratic in redistricting.

District PVI – R+13

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup (4th overall)

Total Pickup Counter – Rep +3

Maryland-2 – C.A. Ruppersberger/Democratic – This district, which encompasses the northwestern shore of the Chesapeake Bay, is fairly democratic.  Ruppersberger won by 43% in 2008 and is well entrenched.

District PVI – D+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Maryland-3 – John Sarbanes/Democratic – This is a hideously gerrymandered district, one of the worst in the nation, which spreads from Annapolis to Baltimore.  Sarbanes is fairly well entrenched here even though he’s only a sophomore.  Obama won by 20% here, so any Republican would face a very uphill battle.

District PVI – D+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Maryland-4 – Donna Edwards/Democratic – This is the most democratic district in Maryland, and one of the most democratic in the nation, consisting of Washington D.C. suburbs mostly.  Nothing of interest to see here.

District PVI – D+31

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Maryland-5 – Steny Hoyer/Democratic – This southern Maryland district is, like many others in the state, reliably democratic.  Hoyer is extremely well entrenched, as he hasn’t had a re-election with under 60% in over a decade.

District PVI – D+11

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Maryland-6 – Roscoe Bartlett/Republican – This district, which encompasses the mountainous west of the crab state, is a very conservative stronghold within a liberal state.  Bartlett, who’s well entrenched but was held under 60% in 2008, shouldn’t have to sweat too much, this year.  2012 could be another matter as his district is sure to become much more democratic in redistricting.

District PVI – R+13

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Maryland-7 – Elijah Cummings/Democrat – This Baltimore-based district is extremely democratic, and as such should be an easy hold for Cummings.  

District PVI – D+25

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Maryland-8 – Chris Van Hollen/Democrat – The head of the DCCC, Van Hollen’s district is very safe, which should allow him a lot of leeway to help out other democrats in their re-elections.  As far as I know he is running unopposed thus far.

District PVI – D+21

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

District of Columbia-1 – Open/Independent – It’s a travesty that Washington D.C gets no representation in Congress.  Ridiculous.  

Pennsylvania-1 – Robert Brady/Democrat – We now move into what could be the most interesting state in the nation for House elections in 2010.  It’s just that the excitement won’t be here, as this Philadelphia-based district is one of the most democratic districts in the country.

District PVI – D+35

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-2 – Chaka Fattah/Democrat – One more major Democratic stronghold to go, this one also in Philadelphia.  Fattah won’t be up late at night worrying about his re-election, as this is the 4th most democratic district in the country.

District PVI – D+38

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-3 – Kathy Dahlkemper/Democrat – Dahlkemper scored a big win in 2008, defeating 7-term incumbent Phil English by 3%.  The presidential vote here was a virtually tie, but the district usually is slightly republican in nature.  The bad thing for the Repubs is that they don’t have any great options here, their primary is a free-for-all.  Businessman Paul Huber has assumed the fundraising lead on the R side, as he’s come down with almost 300k so far, but that pales in comparison to Dahlkemper’s 900k.  Ultimately, I think it’s very telling to take out a 7-term congressman on your first run for elected office.  Dahlkemper could be a rising star in the Democratic Party.

District PVI – R+3

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-4 – Jason Altmire/Democrat – Altmire was one of the Democrats in the class of 2006, when he defeated 3-term incumbent Melissa Hart.  Altmire beat Hart again in the 2008 rematch by 12% even though Obama struggled, losing by 11% to McCain.  Altmire has a record of voting independently in the House, as he has defected 20% of the time on key votes according to CQ.  The Republicans have a good shot here, but like in PA-3, they’ve struggled in recruitment a bit.  Former US Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan and former DHS employee Keith Rothfus are the primary Repub contenders.  Altmire has been on a fundraising tear, having raised 1.27 million thus far.  Like Dahlkemper, Altmire has the look of an up and comer in the democratic caucus.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-5 – Glenn Thompson/Republican – The 5th, which consists of north-central Pennsylvania, is mostly Republican territory.  Thompson won an open seat race in 2008 by 16% over Democrat Mark McCracken and has fundraised well this cycle.  So far the Democrats have not fielded a candidate either.

District PVI – R+9

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Pennsylvania-6 – Jim Gerlach/Republican – This district, which encompasses the western portion of the Philadelphia metroplex, is a big partisan battleground that has trended democratic.  Gerlach had a tough re-election which he won by 4% over little known Bob Roggio.  Obama won here by 17% in 2008, which might explain why Gerlach decided to go for the governorship early this cycle before coming back to the House race.  Gerlach is facing a primary challenge largely because of his earlier exit, the prominent challenge is from businessman Steven Welch.  The Democrats have two prominent candidates here, physician Manan Trivedi and editorial writer Doug Pike.  Pike has been a fundraising bull, raising 1.36 million thus far to Gerlach’s 360k, which could blunt Gerlach’s advantage of incumbency if that matchup occurs.  Very difficult district to predict, but the Dems are in great shape.

District PVI – D+4

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Dem Pickup (2nd overall)

Total Pickup Counter – Rep +2

Pennsylvania-7 – Open/Democratic – An open seat in a partisan battleground is always bad news for the incumbent party, and when Joe Sestak bolted to face Arlen Specter in the Dem Senate primary, that happened here.   Amazingly, both fields appear to have cleared here.  The Republicans got their first choice of candidates, former county district attorney and federal prosecutor Patrick Meehan.  On the Democratic side, state representative Bryan Lentz is the man.  Meehan so far has raised 791k, and Lentz has raised 515k.  One of the problems Meehan might face here is a candidacy from independent conservative Jim Schneller, who might divert votes away from Meehan in a close race.  Regardless, this seat, like the adjoining 6th, is going to be the sight of a major partisan battle.

District PVI – D+3

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-8 – Patrick Murphy/Democratic – This Bucks County based seat in Philadelphia’s northern suburbs has trended democratic in recent years.  Patrick Murphy’s razor-thin 1% win in 2006 over Mike Fitzpatrick made him the first Iraq war veteran elected to Congress.  After a larger win in 2008, Murphy is gearing up for a rematch with Fitzpatrick, who recently declared.  The incumbent has been a great fundraiser, having raised nearly 1.5 million thus far.  It remains to be seen whether Fitzpatrick can shake off the rust, but his presence makes this a race.

District PVI – D+2

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-9 – Bill Shuster/Republican – This district, which makes up most of south-central Pennsylvania, the part sometimes referred to as “Pennsyltucky”, is extremely Republican.  Shuster won’t have any trouble keeping his seat.

District PVI – R+17

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Pennsylvania-10 – Chris Carney/Democrat – Chris Carney took out a scandal-tainted incumbent in 2006 to take hold of this seat, but it was his 13% win in 2008 that really turned heads.  This is a fairly reliably republican district that favored McCain 54-45 over Obama, but Carney has done a good job portraying himself as a centrist.  The best part about it is that the Republican primary field is jammed, with no clear favorite.  The NRCC is highest on former US attorney Tom Marino, but having just got in, he’ll have to make up ground in the fundraising and name ID game.  The conservatism of the 10th will help the Repub primary winner, but Carney has proven himself very capable.

District PVI – R+8

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-11 – Paul Kanjorski/Democrat – Kanjorski was in a lot of trouble in his 2006 and 2008 re-elections, but the national tide helped keep his tenure alive.  He beat Hazleton mayor Lou Barletta by 3% in 2008, but underperformed Obama by 12 points, as the latter won by 15% over McCain.  2008 Repub candidate Barletta is back, but he faces a primary from attorney (noticing a trend here?) Chris Paige, a primary that is already becoming quite contentious.  Kanjorski is facing a primary as well, from Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien.  Like PA-6, this district could come down to who makes it to the general election, but if it’s a Barletta-Kanjorski rematch, I don’t like our chances.

District PVI – D+4

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Moderate Rep Pickup (5th overall)

Total Pickup Counter – Rep +3

Pennsylvania-12 – Open/Democratic – Jack Murtha’s passing has rendered this seat open, but it’s far too early to discuss the possible electoral ramifications here.  Without going too far into detail, this is a locally democratic district that has started to trend rightward at the national level.  I’ll keep this in the Dem column for now.

District PVI – R+1

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-13 – Allyson Schwartz/Democrat – This suburban Philadelphia district, which encompasses most of Montgomery County, is reliably democratic these days.  The entrenched Schwartz shouldn’t have much of a problem here.

District PVI – D+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-14 – Mike Doyle/Democrat – PA-14, which encompasses the city of Pittsburgh and it’s very inner suburbs, is an extremely democratic district.  Doyle is safe.

District PVI – D+19

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-15 – Charlie Dent/Republican – The Lehigh Valley based 15th has been a long-running frustration for democrats, as they have been unable to find a good challenger for Dent, who won by 17% in 2008 even as Obama won by 13% over McCain.  But this cycle, the frustration might be over, as their #1 option, Bethlehem mayor John Callahan is in.  His entry cleared the primary field and has given democrats reason to believe they can knock off Dent, who’s either a centrist or a faux-moderate depending on which side you’re on.  So far Dent has raised 888k this cycle, and Callahan has raised 725k, though Callahan has spent much less and thus has more cash on hand.  The environment may help Dent, but regardless, this is going to be one heck of a fight.

District PVI – D+2

Stephen’s Rating – Leans R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Hold

Pennsylvania-16 – Joe Pitts/Republican – This district, which encompasses Lancaster and exurban Philly, was once hugely conservative, but is starting to trend democratic.  That being said, Joe Pitts is a fairly entrenched incumbent and should be able to hold the seat easily in 2010.  Look out though if this seat comes open later down the road, it could be in play.

District PVI – R+8

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Pennsylvania-17 – Tim Holden/Democrat – Holden has been a thorn in the Republicans’ side since his 2002 election.  He’s been racking up fairly big margins despite the 17th’s overall conservatism.  He won by 27% in 2008 even though John McCain won the presidential vote by 3% over Obama.  Like the Dems in the 15th, the Repubs have been frustrated by their lack of recruiting here.  This cycle they are feeling a bit more upbeat due to the entry of state senator Dave Argall.  He’ll have to get by businessman Josh First and marine veteran Frank Ryan in the primary first though.  The environment and Holden’s lackluster fundraising thus far tells me that this race could be a big fight, but Holden’s past success says otherwise.  Hard to tell.  I’m going to skirt the middle of the two extremes with this pick.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-18 – Tim Murphy/Republican – This hideously drawn district in southwestern Pennsylvania is trending rapidly Republican, and Murphy is pretty well entrenched at this point.  In this environment he probably won’t see much of a challenge.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Solid Rep Hold

Pennsylvania-19 – Todd Platts/Republican – According to CQ, Platts might be in the running for the head job at the Government Accountability Office.  We’ll only see action here if this district opens up really, as Platts has dug himself in, and the district is very conservative in nature.

District PVI – R+12

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Predicition – Solid Rep Hold

Mid-Atlantic Recap – Here in the Mid-Atlantic there are plenty of seats worth watching, it’s a fun region.  Pennsylvania in particular is quite fascinating. Right now I seat 4 seats changing hands, 2 for each party, with the Repubs picking up PA-11 and MD-1, and the Dems picking up DE-1 and PA-6.  That leaves 5 total pickups for the Reps and 2 for the Dems, for a score so far of Rep +3 through two regions.  

Next stop, the Upper South…  

CA-33: Watson Will Retire

CQ:

Rep. Diane Watson (D-Calif.) is retiring at the end of this Congress, a Democratic source confirmed to CQ-Roll Call on Wednesday.

Watson, 76, is the second member of Congress to announce his/her retirement today. Rep. Vern Ehlers (R-Mich.) confirmed this morning that he would not seek a ninth term. […]

Speculation about possible successors has centered on former state Assembly Speaker Karen Bass, who would be a favorite to win a Democratic primary should she run. Republicans are not expected to compete for the seat.

In case anyone was worried about retaining this seat, CA-33 is tenth most Democratic district in the nation; it has a Cook PVI of D+35 and was won by Barack Obama by an 87-12 margin. Former state Assembly speaker Karen Bass sounds likely to get into the race, and would loom large over the Democratic field.

A special credit is due here to SSP diarist CarnahanDem, who broke this story on Friday, days before we got any follow-up from tradmed sources.

RaceTracker Wiki: CA-33