Swing State Project

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (8/21-24, registered voters):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40

Gilbert Baker (R): 42

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40

Curtis Coleman (R): 41

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40

Tom Cotton (R): 39

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Ugly. Horrendously ugly. Any incumbent who’s failing to crack a higher mark than 40% against three C-grade GOP opponents with single-digit name ID is pretty far from being in a comfortable position for re-election. Her approvals, too, are underwater at 36-44.

While I’m sure that the NRSC will make an effort to get a better nominee in place than gaffe-prone crackpots like businessman Curtis Coleman or Kim Hendren, this poll suggests that the GOP could make a race of it even with a less than top-tier challenger.

RaceTracker Wiki: AR-Sen

Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy, one of the Senate’s most iconic liberals, has died at the age of 77 from brain cancer.

Kennedy had recently requested Democratic governor Deval Patrick and the state legislature change the succession process (previously changed by the Democratic legislature in 2004 to prevent Mitt Romney from appointing a Republican to John Kerry’s seat) so that there would be an appointment instead of the required waiting period before a special election; however, it looks like that we’ll need to wait until a special election occurs to fill the vacancy.

The best way to honor his memory? Let’s get universal health care done, just as he’d want. One bright side is that maybe this tragedy will provide Senators the moral kick in the pants to get it over the hump.

Because we could all use some good news lately… here’s a nice booster from Kentucky:

Democrats chipped away at Republican control of the state Senate Tuesday as Democrat Robin Webb narrowly defeated Republican Jack Ditty in a special election Tuesday for a vacant seat in northeastern Kentucky.

Republicans now hold a 20-17 margin in the Senate, with one independent member, bringing Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear closer to his goal of allowing slot machines at horse racetracks.

Unofficial results in the 18th Senate District – Mason, Bracken, Robertson, Carter, Greenup and Lewis counties – show Webb collecting 8,684 votes to Ditty’s 8,402. Independent Guy Gibbons garnered 953 votes.

This race was a pretty expensive and hotly-contested one, so Kentucky Dems can pat themselves on the back for this win. Unofficial results are available here. (Update: Title edited to correct the district number.)

• CT-Sen: CQ looks at how Rob Simmons has been consolidating all of the establishment support in the GOP primary, despite it being a crowded field: he just got the endorsement of state House #2 GOPer (and former state party chair) Bill Hamzy. He’s also endorsed by state House minority leader Larry Cafero and 20 members of the state party’s central committee. Meanwhile, looking all the way ahead to 2012, Alec Baldwin backed down from earlier provocative statements, saying that he doesn’t actually intend to run against Joe Lieberman.

• FL-Sen: Another indicator of a bumpy ride for Charlie Crist in the upcoming primary: he lost a straw poll vote among the Bay County GOP to Marco Rubio by the lopsided margin of 23 to 2. Bear in mind, of course, this is the hardcore party activist faithful in one of the state’s most conservative counties in the Panhandle.

• UT-Sen: The Club for Growth has leaped into the circular firing squad in Utah, with a letter-writing campaign targeted at the 3,000+ delegates going to the state GOP’s nominating convention next year. AG Mark Shurtleff and potentially Rep. Jason Chaffetz consider taking out long-time Sen. Bob Bennett, who’s only very conservative and not super-duper-extra conserative.

• CA-Gov: Two separate polls (from little-known local pollsters) of the Democratic gubernatorial primary show San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom way behind ex-Gov. Jerry Brown. Moore Methods finds Brown leading Newson 49-20 statewide among Dems, while David Binder polled only Dems in San Francisco, where Newsom’s support should be its strongest, but finds Brown leading 51-34 even there, with Newsom winning only among the 30-and-under set.

• NJ-Gov: There’s a weird feeling in the air that things may actually be starting to turn around in New Jersey… the main question remains whether Jon Corzine got himself into too deep a hole to dig all the way out in time. A lot of that has to do with the ethical malfeasance spotlight swinging back toward Chris Christie, as possible Hatch Act violations and unreported loans tarnish him, stories that dominated a disastrous Christie conference call with reporters yesterday despite Christie’s intent of using the call to tar Corzine with the Wall Street brush.

But most significantly, there was the poll that came out yesterday from Republican internal pollster Neighborhood Strategies that showed Christie up only 39%-36% over Corzine among “definite” voters, with Chris Daggett at 6% (and 37-35-6 among likely voters). Even more ominously for Christie, the poll found that the undecided electorate “skews heavily to the left.” One big caveat, though: this isn’t Christie’s pollster, but rather a firm run by Rick Shaftan that worked for Christie’s ultra-conservative primary rival Steve Lonegan (it also has a big fat margin of error). Does the Lonegan camp still have an axe to grind? But if they do, how would releasing a juiced poll long after the primary help them out?

• NY-Gov: Tea leaf readers think that Rudy Giuliani is moving closer to running for Governor in 2010. Rudy says he’ll decide within the next 30 to 60 days, but some see his involvement in the state GOP party chair imbroglio as evidence of his desire to have the party machinery working smoothly behind him if he runs. Rudy apparently successfully talked state party chair Joseph Mondello into resigning yesterday, but he still has one more hurdle, steering key ally Henry Wojtaszek into the chairman position instead of the presmued frontrunner for the position, Ed Cox (who was a McCain backer in 2008). (Of course, Giuliani’s most daunting problem would be one he has no control over — getting the Democrats to not force David Paterson out to make way for Andrew Cuomo, who all polls show flattening Giuliani.)

• SC-Gov: The South Carolina GOP is back to talking about impeachment again at their legislative retreat next weekend, as Mark Sanford is at a bit of a low point again, thanks to disclosures about his abuses of state and private planes. Meanwhile, AG Henry McMaster made it official that he’s getting into the gubernatorial race for the GOP, McMaster launched his bid with a swipe at Sanford, saying there’s been too much dishonesty and scandal in the state.

• AL-05: Freshman Rep. Parker Griffith has announced he won’t be voting for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker again, saying she’s too divisive. Griffith is girding for a difficult first re-election in this R+12 district.

• CA-18: Republicans nailed down a challenger against Dennis Cardoza: Turlock Irrigation Board member Mike Berryhill. This Hispanic-majority district hasn’t seen a competitive race in a long time, but at D+4 isn’t exactly a slam dunk for Dems.

• GA-04: DeKalb County Commissioner Lee May is now considering a primary challenge to Rep. Hank Johnson, in this district that has seen its share of successful primary challenges recently (although both were against Cynthia McKinney). Based on his closeness with DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones, it seems like he’d be coming at the very liberal Johnson from the right.

• NE-02: Speaking of primary challenges from the right, here’s one in an unusual place: Nebraska’s 2nd, where Lee Terry is a reliably conservative vote (although he did vote in favor of TARP, and also famously tried to sell himself to Obama-Terry voters last year). Still, he’s facing a possible serious challenge from health care technology company president Matt Sakalosky, who seems to have the money to self-fund. Sakalosky just confirmed he’s in the race and has his first campaign event set for Saturday.

• OH-16: Calling all Arena Football fans! (All 2 of you!) Co-owner of the Columbus Destroyers (and former mayor of Akron suburb Wadsworth) Jim Renacci has filed to take on freshman Dem John Boccieri in the Canton-based R+4 district.

• TN-05: Daily Kos is bird-dogging Blue Dog Jim Cooper, and finds he’s got some mediocre numbers among the folks back home, with 47-41 favorables and a re-elect of 36% (with 41% consider someone else and 23% definitely replace). R2K also finds that he’d lose support among both Dems and independents if he opposed public option.

• TN-09: Mercurial Memphis mayor Willie Herenton says that he won’t, after all, run in the special election to succeed himself, caused by his resignation. Instead, he’ll focus on his primary challenge to Steve Cohen in the 9th, which was the point of his original resignation.

• KY-St. Sen.: There’s a big special election tonight in northeastern Kentucky, where a vacant state Senate seat will be filled. The two candidates are Democrat Robin Webb and Republican Jack Ditty, who are trying to replace GOPer Charlie Borders, who was appointed by Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear to the Public Service Commission. Republicans currently control the Senate 20-16-1 (and this 1 vacancy).

With the 2010 Senate races in Ohio and Kentucky featuring two of the most competitive Democratic primaries of the cycle, in two of the key Senate battleground states, Senate Guru contacted the Democratic primaries’ major candidates – in Ohio, Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher and Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner; in Kentucky, Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo and state Attorney General Jack Conway – to ask them all one question:

Why should the progressive netroots support your campaign in you state’s 2010 Democratic Senate primary?

To see the Ohio candidates’ responses side-by-side, click here.  To see the Kentucky candidates’ responses side-by-side, click here.

On the web:

Senate Guru

Senate Guru Facebook Group

Previous diaries

Summary:

 PA has 19 representatives: 10 D, 8 R

 RI has  2 representatives, both D.

Possibly vulnerable:

  PA-06 (R)

  PA-07 (D)

  PA-10 (D)

  PA-16 (R)

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: PA-01

Location  Philadelphia and suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 35

Representative Robert Brady (D)

VoteView  83

First elected 1998

2008 margin 91-9 over Mike Muhammad

2006 margin Unopposed

2004 margin 86-13

Obama margin 88-12

Bush margin 2004 15-84

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   14th lowest income (median = $28K), 52nd fewest Whites (33%), 27th most Blacks (45%), 9th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: PA-02

Location Philadelphia and suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 38

Representative  Chaka Fattah (D)

VoteView 77

First elected 1994

2008 margin 89-11 over Adam Lang

2006 margin 89-9

2004 margin 88-12

Obama margin 90-10

Bush margin 2004 12-87

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   Demographics  32nd lowest income (median = $31K), 46th fewest Whites (29.9%), 7th most Blacks (60.7%). 4th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: PA-03

Location Northwestern PA, bordering Lake Erie, OH, and NY map

Cook PVI R + 3

Representative Kathy Dahlkemper (D) over incumbent Phil English

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 52-48

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-49

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Current opponents Elaine Surma, possibly others

Demographics    33rd most Whites (93.7%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment Dahlkemper ousted Phil English, who had been in the House since 1994; she has raised an impressive $521K, and Surma has no website yet and no fundraising numbers. Should be OK, but Dahlkemper is a freshman in a swing district.

District: PA-04

Location   Western PA, bordering OH map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative  Jason Altmire (D)

VoteView 236

First elected 2006

2008 margin 56-44 over Melissa Hart

2006 margin 52-48

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   21st most White (94.3%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment Altmire ousted Hart in 2006, and has now beat her twice

District: PA-05

Location Northern PA, bordering NY map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Glenn Thompson (R)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 57-41 over Mark McCracken

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 44-54

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   32nd most rural (54%), 6th lowest income (median = $33K), 6th most Whites (96%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%).  

Assessment

District: PA-06

Location West of Philadelphia map

Cook PVI D + 4

Representative Jim Gerlach (R) Retiring

VoteView NA

First elected NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 58-41

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Current opponents The only confirmed Democrat is Doug Pike, others are considering running. Confirmed Republicans include Curt Schroder and Ryan Costello, with others considering.

Demographics   70th highest income (median = $56K)  

Assessment A prime pickup possibility.  This district is trending Democratic, and the Gerlach won narrowly in every election.

District: PA-07

Location  Southeastern PA, bordering DE, including King of Prussia  map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Joe Sestak (D) Running for Senate

VoteView NA

First elected NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 47-53

Current opponents No confirmed Democrats; those considering running include Bryan Lentz and Greg Vitali

Demographics 67th highest income (median = $56K), 41st fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment This district is fairly Democratic, but by no means a sure thing.  

District: PA-08

Location The southeast corner of PA, bordering NJ  map

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative Patrick Murphy (D)

VoteView 187

First elected 2006

2008 margin 57-42 over Tom Manion

2006 margin 1418 votes out of 250,000

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 54-45

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics    44th highest income (median = $59K)

Assessment Looks fairly safe

District: PA-09

Location The central part of southern PA, bordering MD and a little of WV  map

Cook PVI R + 17

Representative Bill Shuster (R)

VoteView 340

First elected 2001

2008 margin 64-36 over Tony Barr

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 69-30

Obama margin 45-53

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 19th most rural (59.5%), 3rd most White (96.4%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%), 2nd fewest nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino.  

Assessment Long shot

District: PA-10

Location Northeastern PA, bordering NY and NJ map

Cook PVI R + 8

Representative Christopher Carney (D)

VoteView 234

First elected 2006

2008 margin 56-44 over Chris Hackett

2006 margin 53-47

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 45-53

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Current opponents Christopher Bain, possibly other.

Demographics 27th most rural (55.4%), 9th most White (95.5%), 71st least Black (1.9%), 51st least Latinos (1.4%)

Assessment Do you have to be named Christopher to run here? 🙂   This is a fairly vulnerable district, at R +8; Carney has raised $350K.

District: PA-11

Location Eastern PA, including Scranton and Wilkes-Barre  map

Cook PVI D + 4

Representative Paul Kanjorski (D)

VoteView 169.5

First elected 1984

2008 margin 52-48 over Lou Barletta

2006 margin 72-28

2004 margin 94-6 against a minor party

Obama margin 57-42

Bush margin 2004 47-53

Current opponents Possible primary; no confirmed Republican.

Demographics 97th lowest income (median = $35K)  

Assessment What happened between 2004 and 2008? This might be vulnerable.

District: PA-12

Location An odd, thready district in southwest PA map

Cook PVI R + 1

Representative John Murtha (D)

VoteView 169.5

First elected  1974

2008 margin 58-42 over William Russell

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin unopposed

Obama margin 49-49

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents Russell is running again, as is Tim Burns.  And Murtha has a primary challenge from Ryan Bucchianeri

Demographics    32nd poorest (median income = $31K), 16th most Whites (95.0%).  3rd fewest Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment The primary looks easy for Murtha, and, although Russell has raised a huge amount of money (over $1 million), he lost to Murtha pretty badly in 2008, and probably will again.

District: PA-13

Location Suburbs and exurbs of Philadelphia  map

Cook PVI D + 7

Representative Allyson Schwartz (D)

VoteView 162

First elected 2004

2008 margin 63-35 over Marina Kats

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 56-44

Obama margin 58-41

Bush margin 2004 43-56

Current opponents Damian Dachowski

Demographics   Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: PA-14

Location Pittsburgh and suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 19

Representative Mike Doyle (D)

VoteView 112.5

First elected 1994

2008 margin 91-9 over a Green party candidate

2006 margin 90-10 (against a green)

2004 margin unopposed

Obama margin 70-29

Bush margin 2004 30-69

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   26th lowest income (median = $30K), 71st most Blacks (22.5%)

Assessment Safe

District: PA-15

Location Central part of eastern PA, including Allentown and Bethlehem, bordering NJ  map

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative Charles Dent (R)

VoteView 255

First elected 2004

2008 margin 59-41 over Sam Bennett

2006 margin 54-43

2004 margin 59-39

Obama margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 50-50

Current opponents John Callahan (site under construction) is running and Sam Bennett may run again

Demographics Not unusual on what I track  

Assessment Long shot, but possible.  Still, if a Democrat can’t win here when Obama won by 13 ….; although some have said that Bennett had some local problems.

District: PA-16

Location Southeastern PA, centering on Lancaster  map

Cook PVI R + 8

Representative Joe Pitts (R)

VoteView 405

First elected 1996

2008 margin 56-39 over Bruce Slater

2006 margin 57-40

2004 margin 64-34

Obama margin 48-51

Bush margin 2004 62-38

Current opponents Lois Herr (this website needs some more info)

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Pitts has not raised much for an incumbent with a challenger (only about $100K).  Lois Herr called me up as a potential donor, and she sounds good.  Might be vulnerable.

District: PA-17

Location South and east of central PA, including Harrisburg  map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Tim Holden (D)

VoteView 192.5

First elected 1992

2008 margin 64-36 over Toni Gillhooley

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 59-39

Obama margin 48-51

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Current opponents Frank Ryan

Demographics Not unusual on what I track  

Assessment Holden has won easily, even in this Republican district.  Should be safe.

District: PA-18

Location Suburbs of Pittsburgh  map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Tim Murphy (R)

VoteView 259

First elected 2002

2008 margin 64-36 over Steve O’Donnell

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin 63-37

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  10th most Whites (95.4%), 77th fewest Blacks (2.0%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)  

Assessment Long shot

District: PA-19

Location Southern PA including Gettysburg  map

Cook PVI R + 12

Representative Todd Platts (R)

VoteView 254

First elected 2000

2008 margin 67-33 over Phillip Avilo

2006 margin 91-4 against a Green

2004 margin 64-36

Obama margin 43-56

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   68th most Whites (92.2%)

Assessment Long shot

District: RI-01

Location Northern and eastern RI, bordering MA and CT  map

Cook PVI D + 13

Representative Patrick Kennedy (D)

VoteView 89

First elected 1994

2008 margin 69-24 over Jon Scott

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 64-36

Obama margin 65-33

Bush margin 2004 36-62

Current opponents John Loughlin

Demographics   Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: RI-02

Location Most of the state map

Cook PVI D + 9

Representative Jim Langevin (D)

VoteView 146

First elected 2000

2008 margin 70-30 over Mark Zaccaria

2006 margin 73-27 against an independent

2004 margin 75-21

Obama margin 61-37

Bush margin 2004 41-57

Current opponents A primary challenge, and then Zaccaria again.

Demographics   Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

Christie 39%

Corzine 36%

Daggett 6%

According to a poll conducted by Neighborhood Research, a survey firm run by conservative strategist Rick Shaftan. Corzine leads not only among democrats but also among moderate voters with many democrats undecided. This poll was conducted August 12-21. This is very good news for the Corzine campaign.

http://www.politickernj.com/wa…

Politico:

Former GOP congressman Bob Beauprez announced tonight that he will not be running against Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo).

“Having been presented with the potential to serve in the United States Senate, Claudia and I considered it very carefully. However after significant reflection, I will not be a candidate for the Senate in 2010,” Beauprez said in a statement.

A recent PPP poll had Beauprez beating Bennet by three points, but his favorability numbers were way underwater (30-40) — evidence of a lingering hangover that voters are having with the Beauprez brand after an embarrassing gubernatorial campaign in 2006. But it’s also evidence that Bennet will have to campaign hard (a new concept for him) even if the GOP selects a ham sandwich as its nominee.

ColoradoPols takes the news as a good sign that former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (who served for a term under Bill Owens) is in. Norton’s husband said last week that she’ll make a decision on the race “in 30 days“.

RaceTracker Wiki: CO-Sen

PBI or Party Brand Index is a concept I developed (with some much appreciated help from pl515) as a replacement for PVI.  PVI (Partisan Voting Index), which is measured by averaging the percentage of the vote from the last two presidential elections in each house district, and comparing it to the nation as a whole, is a useful shorthand for understanding the liberal v. conservative dynamics of a district. But PVI in my opinion it falls short in a number of areas. First it doesn’t explain states like Arkansas or West Virginia. These states have districts who’s PVIs indicates a Democrat shouldn’t win, yet Democrats (outside of the presidency) win quite handily. Secondly why is this the case in Arkansas but not Oklahoma with similar PVI rated districts?

Lastly PVI can miss trends as it takes 4 years to readjust. The purpose of Party Brand Index is to give a better idea of how a candidate does not relative to how the presidential candidate did, but compared to how their generic PARTY should be expected to perform. I’ve tackled IN, NC, CO, VA, MO, OK, AR, now I will look at the swing states of Nevada and Iowa.

First I would like to post the data, then I will offer some analysis. My basic pattern is to work my way “out” from the “Purple States” to the more Blue and Red ones. Two weeks ago (I took one week off for Netroots Nation) I skipped my normal pattern of working out from purple states.  I became curious on how my model would work in states like Arkansas that are deeply blue at the local level, but deeply red at the presidential level. I will offer a refresher on them later. But first let’s examine the swings states of Iowa and Nevada.

IOWA

NEVADA

Both of these states have fairly “straightforward” Democratic or Republican leaning districts, only Iowa Rep. Boswell is a Blue Dog. Rep. Titus in Nevada’s 3rd district was designed as a swing district where there would be a equal number of Democrats and Republicans. PBI maintains this is still the case, while PVI suggest a slight Democratic lean. Also Republican Rep. Lantham of Iowa who is frequently mention as a target of Democrats because of his district’s PVI of only +1 Republican, is actually much safer based on PBI -8 (the equivalent of a PVI of 8), which is much closer to his winning margins.

Just a quick note as a reminder on Blue Dogs like Boswell, I developed a “correction factor” that allows for a better “explanation” for congresspersons who win districts that are a “mismatch” for their party’s majority ideology.  I would prefer to run a “batch” of these at a time. So I will simply republish the results for the four Blue Dogs I have encountered since I started this research.

FOUR BLUE DOGS

I developed a formula based on standard deviations. Basically I can figure out how much the average rep deviates from their district.  If I then compare where a reps voting pattern falls (in what percentile) and compare it to their district’s PVI, I can develop a “standard deviation factor”. Inside the standard deviation will get a bonus, outside a negative. The idea is that if a Blue Dog has a very conservative record, they may be surviving not because of a districts Democratic leanings but because they deviate from Democratic policies.  I showed all three variation of my formula but for future examples I will stick to ADJUSTMENT FACTOR #2.

For example, if Rep X is the 42 most conservative rep, that would place her in the 90th percentile. But if her district’s PVI was “only” the in the 60th, their is a good chance her margins would be effected. Using a few random samples I found most reps lie within 12% of their district’s PVI.

Using these dummy numbers I then came up with this.  

   SQRT[(30-12)^2 /2] = about 13%

    Her factor would then be 100 – 13 = 0.87.

So her victory margin would be weighted by 0.87 because she is more than 12% beyond her acceptable percentile range it making the victories in her district approximate 13% less “representative”.

    My theory yields the following formula:

        If rep’s voting record is > PVI then

            100 – SQRT[({Record percentile – PVI} – Standard PVI Sigma)^2 /2] = factor

        else if rep’s voting record < PVI

             100 + SQRT[({Record percentile – PVI} – Standard PVI Sigma)^2 /2] = factor

I then repeated this formula to calculate a partisanship correction factor. Ranking a members ideology is a subjective decision. Potentially what’s one person “liberal” position, is another person “conservative” ones, remember the wingers developed a model that ranked the Sen. Obama as more liberal than Bernie Sanders or Russ Feingold. But partisanship, how often a member votes with their party is an absolute number. A Democrat who represents a “republican district” would be expected to “break with their party” on votes that don’t reflect their districts values.

I couldn’t find a website that ranks all the districts based on their PVI (I only could find list of them by state not rank, help please anyone), therefor I substituted a PVI ranking with where each member ranked in the Democratic caucus. In the 110th Congress the average Democrat had an ideological ranking of 170 (by the way this is a result of several members being tied, this is the medium not the midpoint). The average of members towards the center was 191, former Daily Kos celeb Ciro Rodriguez fell at exactly 191. The average of members towards the liberal side was 121, which falls between Rep. Larson of Conn. and Rep. Eshoo of CA. As or partisanship in the 110th Congress the average Democrat voted with their party 92.3% of the time.

As a clarification in Adjustment #1, I used a deviation factor based on how far each member was from the center of the Democratic caucus. Adjustment #2 was based on how far each member was from outside the standard deviation of the caucus. In Adjustment #3 I removed the partisanship factor to see what effect it would have.

Because there are “only” 50 states (as opposed to evaluating 435 house members), I will at a later date have all the states ranked by PVI so I can adjust the Senator’s rankings. I developed Senate factors for the four states the four blue dogs came from. In the interest of full disclosure, my source for ideological rankings is Voteview, and for partisanship it was the Washington Post. This is still a work in progress, I’m making adjustments, and continuing to crunch numbers for more states. I also will use the adjustment factor on a liberal member of congress to see what effect that will have.

It looks like ol’ C.W. isn’t buying what Charlie Crist is sellin’. From the St. Petersburg Times:

We should have known when U.S. Rep. C.W. Bill Young showed up to his interview with Charlie Crist in tennis shoes and an untucked polo shirt. He won’t be applying to fill Mel Martinez’s unexpired term.

“I have the best job in the world now, and I work for the best people in the world. I would not want to leave in the middle of a term. I’m not a quitter,” said Young, 78, who has been Crist’s congressman for most oif the governor’s life. “Truth of the mattter is I can do far more for Florida and Pinellas county where I am than if I took a different job.”

Young still refuses to say whether or not he’ll run for a 21st term in 2010, but he sure doesn’t sound like a guy who wants to hang up his spurs just yet.

RaceTracker Wiki: FL-10