Swing State Project

So, what are you doing to celebrate Independence Day?

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Blurb at the top of CNN’s website right now:

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is expected to announce that she will not seek a second term, a GOP source close to Palin says.

This is not a surprise – many folks (including myself) have been speculating about this possibility for a long while. What it means is that we’ll certainly have some damn good entertainment on the GOP presidential campaign trail – a welcome relief, given Mark Sanford’s implosion.

As for more Swing State-y matters, we now have to wonder if Dem Ethan Berkowitz will get into the race. The CQ piece cited in the linked post said that Berkowitz was “gearing up for another statewide race – against Gov. Sarah Palin, if she chooses to run for re-election.” So this may mean he won’t take the leap. And that would make sense – our best shot at this seat meant being able to run against the extremely damaged Palin. Now we have a Babs Cubin/John Doolittle/Duke Cunningham-type situation, where the toxic goods have vamoosed too soon.

The Swing State Project currently rates this as a Race to Watch. But if Dems fail to recruit a legitimate candidate, this race will likely drop off our watch list.

WHOA UPDATE (and edit to title): Just flipped on CNN, and they are saying that their affiliates in Alaska are saying Palin is going to resign in a month! WHOA!

LOCAL UPDATE: KTUU in Alaska is indeed confirming that she’ll leave office in a month. WTF? Scandal? Exhaustion? This would seem to irreparably damage her for a presidential run, no?

WHAT NOW? UPDATE: So according to the AK constitution:

If the governor-elect dies, resigns, or is disqualified, the lieutenant governor elected with him shall succeed to the office of governor for the full term.

The current LG is Sean Parnell, who super-narrowly lost in a primary last year against corrupt Rep. Don Young. Earlier in the year, Parnell talked up a possible rematch, but more recently seemed to back off those plans. Did he know something like this was coming?

ANOTHER UPDATE: Jed at Daily Kos is liveblogging her press conference. Even though any normal person would regard resigning mid-term as the end of one’s political career, Sarah Palin is anything but normal. She just said, “America is looking north to the future.” That lunatic actually thinks she’s running for president. Wow.

I CAN’T GET ENOUGH UPDATE: During her presser, Palin apprently said that the “decision has been in the works for a while.” So presumably Parnell was in the know here. Will Don Young live to ride another day?

RaceTracker: AK-Gov

• AK-Gov: George Stephanopoulos (on Twitter) thinks there might be some sort of announcement from Sarah Palin this afternoon, possibly that she won’t run for re-election as governor. This wouldn’t surprise me, and if so, not a bad time to bury the news.

• MN-Sen: Al Franken is going to be sworn in on Tuesday. Just seeing this photo makes me excited.

• MN-06: You know things are bad for Michele Bachmann when… well, every day is bad for her. But things are especially bad when members of her own party start telling her to STFU. “Boycotting the constitutionally mandated Census is illogical, illegal and not in the best interest of our country,” wrote Patrick McHenry, Lynn Westmoreland and John Mica, members of the subcommittee which oversees the census. And these guys are some pretty wingnutty mouthbreathers. Weapons-grade wingnut Jason Chaffetz (the only other GOPer on the same cmte) refused to sign the letter.

• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes pulled in an improved 725K for the quarter – but I still think he can do better. Meanwhile, a piece of shit poll from UNH shows Kelly Ayotte “beating” Hodes 39-35. Why such harsh language? Because UNH continues its crappy track record of unacceptable samples – this time, they have it as 32R, 25D, even though there are more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state of New Hampshire. Pathetic. And in other news, former Gov. Stephen Merrill (R), who served in the mid-90s right before Jeanne Shaheen, has declined to run for the open Senate seat.

• PA-07: Republican businessman Steven Welch has made it official – he will run for the 7th CD seat, which may or may not be open, depending upon what Rep. Joe Sestak does. I can’t understand why Welch would pick a holiday weekend to launch his campaign, though. (Thanks, Pan.)

• TX-Gov/AG: Former Travis County DA Ronnie Earle – best known these days as the guy who indicted Tom DeLay – just filed papers to run for statewide office. He hasn’t yet said whether he’ll seek the governor’s mansion (which would put him on a collision course will fellow Dem Tom Schieffer) or the Attorney General’s job. Either way, Earle can start raising money now.

• VA-05: A Virginia TV station is refusing to air an NRCC ad against Tom Perriello. While the station has remained mum about its reasons, Factcheck.org slammed the ad for its inaccuracies about the Waxman-Markey climate change bill. TV & radio stations are open to legal liability when they run third-party ads (they are immune when running candidate ads), so the only reason to nix a spot is because your lawyers tell you to. Nice to see the NRCC fumbling out of the gate. Perriello, meanwhile, is offering a feisty defense of his vote.

• Ads: A coalition of liberal groups is airing “thank you” ads in seventeen congressional districts, which include some potentially vulnerable Dems who voted for the climate change bill. The list: B. Markey, Boyd, Grayson, Kosmas, Hill, Halvorson, Chandler, Kratovil, Peters, Schauer, Hodes, Maffei, Kilroy, Space, Perriello, Giffords & Kagen.

I made this map aiming for a 4-3 Republican delegation. Even though I strengthened shaky Republicans like Henry Brown and Joe Wilson from the 1st and 2nd districts, I was able to create a new safe Democratic district. This is assuming that South Carolina gets another district and that Joe Wilson and Henry Brown survive 2010. My main objectives were to keep John Spratt and James Clyburn safe and create a new Democratic district. The problem is that I wanted to create a new African American majority seat but I was unable to. Maybe the new district could be branded as a coalition district since Whites are a minority. This plan will probably not pass if Republicans control the legislature and the Governorship. Anyway, my next map will be Georgia or Minnesota. There will be no “different state” on the poll this time. Yes, I love giving polls and I have been asking the same question, I will admit. I guess I do not need to explain what the rankings mean. Well, here is the link to the maps http://frogandturtle.blogspot….

District 1 Henry Brown (R) Blue

Yes, I had to strengthen him even though I did not want to. He won by 4 points against openly lesbian Linda Ketner. In South Carolina, such a narrow win against an openly gay candidate is humiliating to Brown. I strengthened Brown by removing most of Charleston County (his district connects by water.) He should be safe with a strong base in Horry County and the Republican parts of Charleston County. I think McCain won this district with about 60% of the vote. Racial stats are 15% African American, a few points lower than the percentage for the current 1st and 78% White. Status is Safe Republican.

District 2 No Incumbent Green

This was my failed attempt at an African American majority district. It takes in most of Charleston County and Democratic parts of Berkeley and Dorchester Counties. I know I am going to get criticisms for not exchanging some parts of the 2nd district with the 1st. I wanted to make the White population a minority here so I could form a coalition district. I am not sure if I can do that with such a low Hispanic population. This district also takes in every Democratic area near the coast and even snakes up into heavily Republican Aiken in Central South Carolina. Even though I could have made this an African American majority district, I had to protect Clyburn without creating a district more convoluted than the old NC-12. Anyway, Obama probably won 58% of the vote here. Racial stats are 46% African American and 47% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 3 Gresham Barrett (R) Purple

I know that Wilson won by eight points in the last election but I needed to strengthen the 2nd district. I changed the look of this district a bit by extending it completely up the border of South Carolina and Georgia all the way up to the North Carolina border. I removed all of Richland County (Columbia) and almost all of Conservative Lexington County. Even though Gresham Barrett has his home here, Joe Wilson might take a run because it contains most of his old district. From the looks of the district, only a strong challenger could make this competitive. McCain probably won here with 63% of the vote. Racial stats are 20% African American and 74% White. Status is Likely Republican.

District 4 Bob Inglis (R) Red

Since the South Carolina Up Country is so Conservative Inglis should have no trouble here winning against a Democrat. I made the district even more Republican by removing the inner city of Spartanburg. This district is still based in Greenville and I had the district take in part of Pickens County. I think McCain won here with 64% of the vote. The racial stats are 16% African American (lower than the 20% African American population from the old 4th,) 6% Hispanic and 75% White. Status is Safe Republican.

District 5 Joe Wilson (R) Yellow

Joe Wilson should be strong in his Lexington County base but he should be wary of a challenge from the northern part of the district. An Up Country Republican may take a run at this district and looking at Wilson’s not so large 54% winning percentage from 2008, he may be in trouble in a primary. He should not worry about the general election because the territory the district includes is heavily Republican. McCain probably won here with 67% of the vote. The racial stats are 17% African American and 75% White. Status is Safe Republican.

District 6 John Spratt (D) Teal

Even though I needed to keep the African American percentage high for two other districts, the African American population of this one did not change much. It decreased by one point, to 31%. Since I kept most of the old territory in this district, I believe that Spratt should not worry about a challenge. He has been Congressman since 1982. I think that McCain won with 53% of the vote here. The racial stats are 31% African American and 64% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 7 James Clyburn (D) Gray

This district looks a bit convoluted. I had to make it this way to keep it an African American majority district so the Voting Rights Act can protect it and also protect Clyburn. I barely succeeded in keeping the African American population above 50%. I had to extend it all the way up to Spartanburg and I almost sent it into Greenville to take in African American precincts without endangering the 2nd or the 6th district. Clyburn should be safe even from a primary challenge. Obama probably received 62% of the vote here. Racial stats are 51% African American and 43% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

As Dean says, this is huge:

Before Democratic Gov. John Lynch re-appointed Republican Kelly Ayotte to a full second term as state Attorney General he had an understanding that she would serve the entire term, the governor’s spokesman says. …

But now Lynch’s camp in joining the fray suggesting that if she does run she is going back on a promise she made just in April to complete the term through 2013.

“It was the Governor’s expectation in reappointing Kelly Ayotte that she would serve her full term,” said Lynch spokesman Colin Manning. “At the time of her appointment she told the Governor that was her intention.”

Remember, before Judd Gregg pulled the plug on his nomination to run the Commerce Dept., John Lynch planned to appoint Gregg’s equally conservative chief-of-staff as his replacement. So Lynch is not a guy known for sticking his neck out on behalf of partisan causes. Again citing Dean, this must mean that Dems are pretty concerned about an Ayotte run.

Now we wait for her response. If she doesn’t bail, this is going to be an ugly albatross for her for the next sixteen months. And I’d also expect it might encourage Charlie Bass even further.

According to CQ Politics:

Republican businessman Steven Welch, who promises that his run in the 7th District, a suburban Philadelphia constituency, will feature a “new style of campaigning that will focus on voter engagement and utilize cutting-edge technologies.”

What do you know about Mr. Welch, and do you see him as a strong candidate, as he would have to be in the Democratic-leaning district currently represented by Representative Sestak if he hopes to win?

• NC-Sen: Republican pollster Civitas poked at the Senate race, not doing head-to-heads but looking at favorables for Richard Burr and two of his likeliest challengers, SoS Elaine Marshall and Rep. Mike McIntyre. Marshall and McIntyre are little-known, with 12/7 favorables for Marshall and 13/10 and McIntyre (although he was at 38/12 in his district). The bad news for Burr? He’s barely doing better than them, with 31/19 favorables (meaning 50% don’t know him or have no opinion).

• NY-Sen-B: Marist dribbles out the Senate half of its newest New York poll today (Gov was yesterday), and it finds a super-tight race in the Dem primary in wake of yesterday’s sorta-kinda entry by Carolyn Maloney: Maloney leads Kirsten Gillibrand, 38-37 (compared with a 36-31 Gillibrand lead in May). Gillibrand wins against both George Pataki (46-42, up from a 46-38 deficit last time) and Peter King (48-32). Marist doesn’t do general election head-to-heads with Maloney, although for some reason they poll a GOP primary between Pataki and King (51-36 for Pataki) despite the decreasing likelihood that either of them run.

Also of interest: Bill Clinton will be appearing at a Maloney fundraiser scheduled for July 20. Clinton isn’t wading into the race with an endorsement at this point, though; this was in the works long before Maloney announced her run, as payback for Maloney’s 2008 primary support for Hillary Clinton, and he also headlined a Gillibrand fundraiser in March.

• PA-Sen: Pat Toomey got another endorsement from one of the more conservative members of Pennsylvania’s House GOP delegation: PA-09’s Bill Shuster.

• AL-Gov: The Democratic field in the governor’s race in Alabama seems to be solidifying; the last question mark, Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb, announced that she won’t be running. With a lot of establishment figures waiting on the fence to see if an alternative to Rep. Artur Davis and Ag Comm. Ron Sparks shows up, expect them to start choosing sides soon. Davis, meanwhile, has been staffing up with some key political players, adding Joey Ceci and David Mowery to his team (who managed the successful campaigns of freshman Reps. Parker Griffith and Bobby Bright).

• CA-Gov: Sure, California’s an expensive state, but Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman have reported gigantic hauls even by the Golden State’s outsized standards. Brown raised $7.3 million in the year’s first half, while Whitman raised $6.5 million. Steve Poizner and Gavin Newsom raised huge sums and are still far behind — Poizner raised $1.3 million and loaned himself another $4 million, while Newsom raised $1.6 million, much of it online.

• MN-Gov: The tradmed seems to be intent today on talking up Norm Coleman’s next logical step as being running for Governor of Minnesota, although Minnesota reporters and politicians in the know are trying to point out the sheer ridiculousness of that idea. (If Norm’s going to be doing any running soon, it’s running away from the FBI, as they investigate his links to Nasser Kazeminy.)

• RI-Gov: The Democratic primary for the open Rhode Island Governor’s seat was looking to be a three-way slugfest, but Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts yesterday announced that she would run for re-election instead of for Gov. Although she had started staffing up for the race, she couldn’t have been encouraged by poll numbers which showed her at a disadvantage with likely opponents Treasurer Frank Caprio and AG Patrick Lynch.

• SC-Gov: Gov. Mark Sanford seems to have taken a few steps backwards this week. A snap poll from yesterday by SUSA now finds 69% of South Carolinians saying resign, as opposed to 28% saying stay. 63% say they have “no trust” in Sanford. Here’s an interesting red flag: only 20% say Lt. Gov/party boy Andre Bauer is “completely prepared” to become Governor, with 38% saying “somewhat prepared” and 34% saying “not prepared.”

• WI-Gov: Real estate developer and ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, who held WI-01 from 1994 to 1998 before losing narrowly to Russ Feingold, announced his gubernatorial candidacy yesterday. Neumann’s entry had been widely anticipated; he’ll face off against Milwaukee Co. Executive Scott Walker in the GOP primary.

• CA-45: With Rep. Mary Bono Mack having defected on the cap-and-trade vote, the rightosphere has been calling for her head. Their favored replacement, term-limited state Senator Dennis Hollingsworth, quickly said “no” to a primary challenge, so their wish-list has turned to ex-state Sens. Jim Battin and Ray Haynes and ex-state Rep. Bonnie Garcia.

• IL-14: A second GOP challenger got into the race against Rep. Bill Foster, although this guy doesn’t sound like he’ll pose much of a threat to Ethan Hastert for the nom. Jeff Danklefsen hasn’t run for office before and is “maintenance manager for a property management company.”

• LA-03: The Hill reported last week that Democratic efforts to find a replacement to Rep. Charlie Melancon have focused on state Rep. Gary Smith, who was going to run for the open seat in 2004 but deferred to Melancon. State Rep. Fred Mills was also interested, but state Rep. Damon Baldone, who might be the highest-profile candidate, is about to run in a special election for a state Senate seat and is unlikely to follow that with a U.S. House run.

• PA-06: With the 2nd quarter just wrapped up, look for lots of financial reports to start getting leaked. Here’s a nice place to start: Doug Pike, in the 6th, is looking at a haul of over $500K for the quarter, thanks a recent D.C. fundraiser starring Allyson Schwartz and Patrick Murphy.

• WI-08: We’re building up a backlog of Republicans trying to take on Rep. Steve Kagen. Businessman Reid Ribble jumped into the field, joining Door Co. Supervisor Marc Savard and Brown Co. Supervisor Andy Williams.

• WV-02: With some prodding from the DCCC, Gov. Joe Manchin’s former general counsel, Carte Goodwin, is looking into challenging Rep. Shelly Capito Moore in the Charleston-based 2nd.  

Back in February, we learned about an intriguing possibility in the Wyoming governor’s race – incumbent Dem Dave Freudenthal might seek to overturn the state’s term-limit law, which would otherwise turn him out of office next year. How could he do this?

It turns out that back in 2004, Wyoming’s Supreme Court struck down term limits that applied to state legislators. The court ruled that such limits could only be imposed by changing the state’s constitution, not (as voters had attempted) via ballot initiative. Even though the same law covered both legislators and statewide officeholders (including the governor’s office), for procedural reasons, the court limited its ruling to just the state lege. The court’s explanation tells us quite a lot, though:

The parties have not addressed this issue, but we note that the constitutionality of a statute may only be questioned by a party whose rights are affected thereby. Likewise, a party cannot assert that a statute is unconstitutional as to other persons or classes of persons. These precepts suggest that the appellant legislators cannot raise the question of the constitutionality of the term limit law as it affects the qualifications for governor… and for secretary of state, auditor, treasurer, and superintendent of public instruction…..  Furthermore, the appellant voters have not alleged an inability to vote for particular candidates for the executive branch offices. Accordingly, we will limit our holding to those constitutional provisions involving legislative qualifications. (Citations removed.)

In other words, because no one had properly raised the gubernatorial issue, the court could not rule on it. But it sure sounds like they would have nuked gov term limits if only they could have. On the merits (ie, instituting term limits via ballot initiative vs. constitutional amendment), there just isn’t any daylight between state legislative jobs and the governor’s mansion.

It’s rare to see something like this in the legal world, but if Freudenthal raised a challenge, it’s almost impossible to see how gubernatorial term limits could survive. The real issues, then, are “will he?” and “when does he have to file suit?” As to the first question, a spokesman left the door wide open several months ago, and I haven’t heard anything since.

And as far as timing goes, Freudenthal can afford to wait. The legislative term limits suit was filed in January of 2004 in district court (which sided with the plaintiffs), and was then appealed directly to the state supreme court, which ruled in May (upholding the lower court). It was a close shave because Wyoming’s filing deadline was just a few weeks later, so Freudenthal probably wouldn’t want to wait that long. On the flipside, as I suggest above, this case has basically already been argued and all but decided. It could probably get resolved in even less time than the original four-month-long suit.

So Freudenthal could probably wait another half year, maybe even longer. But personally, I think he should declare his intentions sooner rather than later, and if he decides to challenge the law, do it right away. While our chances of holding on to the governor’s mansion would be slim without him running again, the uncertainty and delay will only make an already difficult challenge even harder for Democrats.

We’ve never done one of these before – a gubernatorial cattle call. There just weren’t enough races last cycle. But this time, we’ve got a ton, and a very unsettled landscape given the huge number of open seats.

In case you haven’t done one of these before, rank the gov seats that are up in 2009 & 2010 in order of likelihood of flipping. (So this includes New Jersey and Virginia.) The traditional SSP way is to include seats held by both parties in a single list (separate lists make comparisons harder). Go as far down the list as you like. If you need some food for thought, check out Swing State’s gubernatorial race ratings. Have fun!