Swing State Project

UPDATE: On September 16 EMILY’s List announced their endorsement of two more Congressional challengers: Becky Greenwald in IA-04 (D+0) and Sharen Neuhardt in OH-07 (R+6).



Maybe someone out there who knows the inner workings of EMILY’s List can explain to me why this group has not put money behind Becky Greenwald, the Democrat challenging loyal Republican foot-soldier Tom Latham in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district.

I have been going over the list of Democratic women running for Congress whom EMILY’s List is supporting, with a particular focus on the six challengers most recently added to this group in early August. I do not mean to denigrate any of those candidates, and I recognize that every race has its own dynamic.

However, after comparing Greenwald’s race to those of other candidates, I remain puzzled that EMILY’s list is not more involved in IA-04.

Follow me after the jump for more.

First things first: IA-04 has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+0. Since 2004, every Congressional district in Iowa has seen big gains in Democratic voter registration, which surged in connection with this year’s presidential caucuses. For the first time since Iowa’s districts were last redrawn, IA-04 now has more registered Democrats than Republicans.

Democrats have an advantage in the generic Congressional ballot nationwide, but what may be more relevant for this district is Barack Obama’s big lead over John McCain in Iowa (double-digits according to the two most recent polls). The Obama campaign’s enormous ground game in Iowa will be working in Greenwald’s favor too. Her staffers and volunteers seem pleased with the level of coordination between the campaigns’ turnout efforts.

Turning to Greenwald as a candidate, you can see from her bio that she has strong roots in the district as well as experience in the business world and a history of volunteering for causes including the Iowa Democratic Party. She dominated the four-way Demomcratic primary on June 3, winning over 50 percent of the vote. As of June 30, she had raised about $143,000 for her campaign but had only about $82,000 cash on hand because of her competitive primary.

Several Iowa political analysts observed this summer that Greenwald can beat Tom Latham if she can raise enough money to compete. Latham serves on the House Appropriations Committee and was sitting on more than $800,000 cash on hand as of June 30. Then again, plenty of well-funded incumbents have lost seats in Congress when facing a big wave toward the other party. Cook has this race as likely R, but I would consider it lean R. There have been no public polls on the race yet.

The current reporting period ends September 30. I don’t have inside information about Greenwald’s cash on hand now, but I know she has been aggressively fundraising all summer long. I assume things have gone fairly well on that front, because the DCCC just put IA-04 on its “Emerging Races” list. One thing working in Greenwald’s favor is that the Des Moines and Mason City markets, which cover most of the 28 counties in the district, are not too expensive for advertising. So, she can be up on the air for several weeks, even though she clearly won’t be able to match Latham dollar for dollar.

Side note: Shortly after the Democratic primary in IA-04, the sore loser who finished third vowed to run for Congress as an independent. However, he quickly turned his attention to the fight against Iowa’s new smoking ban. He then failed to submit petitions to qualify for the ballot, took down his Congressional campaign website and reportedly moved to Florida. In other words, he won’t be a factor in November.

Why should EMILY’s list get involved in this race? Not only is Greenwald a good fit for the district, she is pro-choice whereas Latham has a perfect zero rating on votes related to abortion rights.

As a bonus, Greenwald has the potential to end Iowa’s disgrace as one of only two states that have never sent a woman to Congress or elected a woman governor.

Now, I will briefly examine the six candidates for U.S. House whom EMILY’s list most recently endorsed. As I said earlier, I don’t mean to knock any of these candidates, but I do question why these districts would be considered more winnable than IA-04.

1. Anne Barth. She is running against incumbent Shelley Moore Capito in West Virginia’s second district (R+5, somewhat more Republican than IA-04). Cook has this race as lean R, Swing State Project sees it as likely R. As of June 30, Barth had about $353,000 cash on hand, compared to more than $1.2 million for Capito. My understanding is that this district is quite expensive for advertising because of its proximity to Washington, DC.

2. Sam Bennett. She is running against incumbent Charlie Dent in Pennsylvania’s 15th Congressional District (D+2, slightly more Democratic than IA-04). Cook and Swing State Project both rate this race as likely R, although Chris Bowers is optimistic given the partisan lean of the district. As of June 30, Bennett had just under $354,000 cash on hand, compared to about $687,000 for Dent.

3. Jill Derby. She is running against incumbent Dean Heller, who beat her in the 2006 election to represent Nevada’s second district (R+8, markedly more Republican than IA-04). It’s not too uncommon for Congressional candidates to win on their second attempt, but Cook and Swing State Project both view this district as likely R. As of June 30, Derby had about $314,000 cash on hand, while Heller had just over $1 million in the bank.

4. Judy Feder. This is another rematch campaign, as incumbent Frank Wolf beat Feder by a comfortable margin in 2006 in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District (R+5). Again, Cook and Swing State Project agree that this is a likely R district. As of June 30, Feder was doing quite well in the money race with about $812,000 cash on hand, not too far behind Wolf’s $849,000.

5. Annette Taddeo. She is running against incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in Florida’s 18th Congressional District (R+4). Cook and Swing State Project both rank this district as likely R. Taddeo made a great impression on people at Netroots Nation and had just under $444,000 in the bank on June 30, while the incumbent reported nearly $1.9 million.

6. Victoria Wulsin. In 2006, she fell just short against incumbent “Mean Jean” Schmidt in Ohio’s second district (R+13). Granted, Schmidt is ineffective as an incumbent, which is probably why Swing State Project has this in the lean R category (it’s likely R according to Cook). Wulsin also had about $378,000 in the bank on June 30, compared to about $390,000 for Schmidt. Still, this is a markedly more Republican district than IA-04.

I understand that EMILY’s List does not have unlimited resources, but I still find it surprising that they have not jumped in to support Greenwald. A little money goes a long way in the Mason City and Des Moines media markets.

If you want to help send her to Congress, go here and give what you can. September 15 is her birthday, by the way.

I look forward to reading your comments about EMILY’s list or any of these Congressional races.

I’ve just set up the brand new Swing State Project IRC (internet relay chat) channel!  Now we can talk to each other in real time–imagine what a thrill it will be on election night!

It’s located here:

network: irc.chat4all.org

channel: #swingstateproject

In order to connect to it, you’ll need a program that does IRC, called an IRC client.  There are a lot of clients out there, but I personally recommend X-Chat if you’re running either Windows or Linux.  However, there are also many other clients, such as mIRC, ViRC, Hirc, and even Gaim and other multi-platform IM clients.  (I’m not familiar with Macs so I don’t know what program names to recommend, but IRC clients should be easy enough to find.)

If you have questions, just leave me a comment here.  I’ll try to answer it (or somehow dig up useful information).

If I’m on, my IRC nickname is “GMH”.

If you don’t see anyone on the channel, feel free to just “idle” (hang out doing nothing), other people will likely show up sooner or later.

Also, sometimes you might find there a friend of mine who isn’t as politics-crazy as I am but is much more experienced with IRC; he usually just idles and can help out in case bad stuff happens (such as with spammers and stuff) if I’m not around.

This week Scott Harpers‘s campaign in IL-13 was one of only five races nationally and the only one in Illinois to be upgraded to the Red to Blue Emerging Races list by the DCCC.

On top of that this week Harper was also endorsed by DAPAC (Democratic Advancement Political Action Committee). From their website: “DAPAC is a unique progressive political action committee that targets Republican held seats in the U.S. House and helps “new progressive” Democratic candidates run and win in those districts.” They only support progressives:  “All of our elected members of Congress from the last cycle have voted progressively on the issues. No other Democratic organization comes close to having a record as progressive as ours.”

All the smart, hard work Scott, his campaign manager Sarah Topy, her staff and the  volunteers flocking to the campaign are putting in to elect this great candidate to the House is really paying off.

Read on for how this race is shaping up to be one of our biggest House wins this cycle.

Scott is the first serious candidate Bush loving, do nothing, 10 year incumbent Judy Biggert has ever faced. On primary day, Super Tuesday he got 25,000 more votes in the district than Biggert and her wingnut primary challenger combined.

We’re seeing a sea change folks, in formerly Republican stronghold DuPage County which makes up about a third of the district, where Markos cut his eye teeth canvassing in his misspent youth, almost 133,000 voters took Democratic ballots to 109,000 Republicant. I’ve been here for most of my life and I can tell you that’s never happened before. And it’s not like Repubs had nothing to vote for, this was long before Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos”, Biggert had her challenger, and there were several other contested primary races on their ballot. And let’s remember it was the last chance they had to vote for anyone but McCain to be their nominee. Romney dropped out two days later. I’m a precinct committeeman here and spent all day at my polling place. I know my voters and I know the Repubs. There were a lot of angry, fed up Republicans who felt betrayed crossing over. My Repub counterpart was a convention delegate for Romney and desperately tried to get them to vote for Mittens but he didn’t come close.

Keep in mind back in February hardly anyone knew who Scott was. He’s not a longtime politico, he’s never run for office before and if you googled his name last year chances are you’d come up with a reporter in Georgetown or a swimmer from Australia. I never heard of him before I met him at Yearly Kos in Chicago last year. On Super Tuesday he was just a name on the ballot with a “D” next to it. Now, thanks to Scott’s hard work, a lot of nights and weekends spent by volunteers, the grueling hours his staff puts in, and the money supporters have dug deep to contribute, a whole lot more voters not only know him but are excited about his candidacy.

The same can’t be said of Judy Biggert. Scott’s forced her to open a campaign HQ and for the first time ever she’s mounting a field campaign. She had to skip the Republican convention and the opportunity to hobnob with all those big money donors to march in Labor Day parades where Scott’s contingent more than doubled hers in all but one parade thanks to the Giant Ice Cream Cone disaster of 2008 in Naperville that kept many supporters from getting to Lemont in time.

By the end of the 2nd quarter on June 30 Harper outraised all four of Biggert’s previous challengers combined for their entire races. As a matter of fact he’s outraised her since the beginning of the year. But unfortunately that’s not enough.

Biggert has had a 10 year head start. She started with a huge warchest and can count on big banks she “oversees” (I use that term loosely) as the ranking member of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit. BTW she got that plum assignment, the only subcommittee or committee she’s ever risen to chair or been ranking member of in her illustrious career in the House when her Republican predecessor dropped dead. You’d think with her district being right next door to Denny Hastert’s all those years she’d be a brighter star in the wingnut firmament by now, but not Judy Biggert.

But I digress, She not only has big bank bucks backing her, (say that 5 times fast), she joined the rest of those fools on the House floor this summer spouting “drill baby drill!”. Hilariously the only wingnut I found that wrote anything on the net about her speech into the darkness said without a mic she couldn’t hear a word she said even though the writer was in the third row! It’ll come as no surprise that while she gives lip service to alternative energy and actually votes sometimes for it’s R&D funding she fights tooth and nail to make sure the fossil fuel industry stays on top. And why wouldn’t she? She’s got hundreds of thousands invested in them and has taken almost $88,000 of their campaign cash at last count, and probably a lot more since her grandstand play in the darkened House last month.

Her daughter is a pharmaceutical lobbyist in DC so what’s her take from healthcare interests? A cool $230,000.

I could go on and on but you get the picture. Scott Harper is up against an old fashioned money con backed by the fattest of cats who want her to keep fighting for their privileged position, the future be damned.

We’re on the verge of winning this race but we need people like you and me and our small donations to help make up that cash difference. The money will go toward the advertising blitz in the last few weeks that’ll help us reach those who don’t know enough about Harper yet and put us over the top.

Please give what you can to Scott’s campaign through the Emerging Races ActBlue page, $50, $100 bucks, even $5 would be a big help.  

Are you working or volunteering for a campaign this fall – at any position up or down the ticket? (I should hope you are!)

If so, tell us about the campaign you’re working on and the work that you’re doing. I’d love to hear about it.  

SurveyUSA (9/10-11, likely voters, 8/13-14 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 40 (39)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 41 (46)

Dean Barkley (I): 14 (-)

Undecided: 5 (5)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

SurveyUSA has generally given more favorable margins for Coleman than Rasmussen (the only two outfits that regularly release polls of this contest), in part perhaps based on a sample of younger voters who are more pro-GOP than you might expect. So while it might be tempting to say that Franken is performing well in the face of a funky cross-sample, I’d prefer to wait for SUSA to release the poll’s crosstabs to pick this one apart. UPDATE: Crosstabs are available here. Look like SUSA finally solved the young voter problem — in this poll, Franken leads 48-33 among 18-34 year-olds.

Note: In the August poll, Dean Barkley’s name wasn’t explicitly mentioned, but “Other” gobbled up 11% of the vote.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by a 49-47 in the poll, the same margin that SUSA showed here in August.

(Via MN Publius)

Canton Firefighters Endorse Boccieri

The Canton Professional Firefighters Association, IAFF Local 249, has endorsed John Boccieri in the race for Ohio’s 16th Congressional District.

Dan Reed, President of Local 249, said:

“John has always been very responsive to us. We appreciate his respect for firefighters, his military service, and his commitment to collective bargaining rights. I know he’ll listen to our needs and stand up for us in Washington.”

The Canton Professional Firefighters Association has a membership of 163 Canton firefighters.

Boccieri said he was honored to receive the group’s endorsement.

“Canton’s firefighters put their lives on the line for us every day, and I couldn’t be prouder of their service and dedication. I’ll fight in Congress to make sure they have all the support and resources they need to do their job and keep our community safe.”

Earlier this week, the DCCC unveiled an unprecedented fifth wave of its highly-touted “Red to Blue” fundraising and support program for Democratic candidates running in GOP-held House districts. With the DCCC bolstering the ranks of this program with so many up and comers, it’s worth asking: just how valuable is this endorsement, and what can its participants expect in terms of tangible support?

The “Red to Blue” distinction is essentially the DCCC’s stamp of confidence in a local campaign. Roll Call has more:

The list started in the 2004 cycle. Democratic consultant Mark Nevins worked at the DCCC before the list became akin to “the Good Housekeeping seal of approval” for Democratic Congressional races.

“If a candidate is on the Red to Blue program, it is an easy way to identify people who the party believes have a realistic shot at winning,” he said.

In other words, the distinction is an arrow drawn by the DCCC for potential donors saying: Hey, this candidate is worth your time — and money. CT-04 candidate Jim Himes sums it up well:

“It certainly got us a lot of assistance from the DCCC,” Himes said. “It certainly helped with validation and credibility, and it helped to some extent with fundraising as well.”

But after seven months on the list, Himes said Red to Blue was more helpful in the beginning stages of his campaign.

“I guess I would agree that the Red to Blue program is more helpful early on than when it comes down to people making a decision about voting,” he said. “At this point, my critical challenge is really telling my story in my district.”

In other words, the earlier a campaign can secure this endorsement, the more valuable it is in terms of attracting national donors. (That’s not to say that late-bloomers can’t win – but more on that below.)

But what about attracting cash infusions from the DCCC itself in the form of independent expenditures? Looking at each of the DCCC’s four waves of R2B in the 2006 cycle gives us a similar answer: the earlier that a campaign is added to the program, the more likely the committee has been to make independent expenditures in that particular race.

Let’s go through each of the DCCC’s Red to Blue waves in 2006, and tally up how much the DCCC spent on each race. We’ll start with the first wave, and continue with the remainder below the fold. (UPDATE: As per suggestions in the comments, I’ve added up the NRCC’s totals in these districts, too — to give you a sense of how much of a bullseye gets painted on an R2B candidate’s back.)

Wave 1 – April 27, 2006:

Wave 2 – July 13, 2006:

Wave 3 – September 18, 2006:

Wave 4 – October 27, 2006:

Now, it’s pretty clear that the addition of so many races to the R2B program a week and a half before election day was mostly a “pat on the back” exercise for many of these candidates rather than a legitimate showing of support, although it’s worth noting that we’re looking at five congressmen today who came out of that last-minute batch.

However, just about every candidate in the September 18th and earlier waves received a direct helping hand by the DCCC’s IE shop – with the exception of blue seaters who never really needed the help (Hirono, Hare and Sutton), and Phyllis Busansky, who never really stood much of a chance against a candidate named “Bilirakis”.

So with all that in mind, here are the five waves of Red to Blue that the DCCC has announced so far this year: Round one, two, three, four, and five.

Special note: I could not obtain figures for FL-13, but I do know that the DCCC funneled some considerable resources here.

Just a quick post for these two ads below that are absolutely the two slimiest I have seen out of either camp this year.

Quote:

   Republican Sen. Gordon Smith has enlisted the victim of a serial rapist to appear in an emotional TV ad accusing his Democratic rival, Jeff Merkley, of failing to crack down on serious sex offenders.

   Tiffany Edens, who became well-known in Oregon as she fought convicted rapist Richard Troy Gillmore’s attempt to win parole, charges that Merkley voted in the state Legislature against extending the statute of limitations on rape.

   “Jeff Merkley,” Edens says, staring into the camera as the commercial concludes, “you should have voted to protect victims, not rapists.”

Video below the jump…

 

A funny thing happened last night in Paducah. Although Hurricane Ike had not even touched ground in the United States yet, prices at the pump started rising and hitting as high as $4.59 a gallon. This caused a rush on the pumps that hadn’t gone up, and resulted in lines all the way out on the road in some places, and even a few fist-fights from consumers desperate to fill their tanks before the prices spiked.

The real question is why were prices going up so quickly? Our Lt. Governor, Dan Mongiardo was quick to point out on the radio this morning that the prices seem to be spiking mostly in Western Kentucky. He also noted that not one drop of gas being sold there originated from Houston or Galveston, the areas affected by the Hurricane.

He was not the only one that smelled a rat. Our Democratic Attorney General, Jack Conway was on the job too:

“Today, I formally requested that Gov. Beshear implement the price gouging protections of Kentucky’s Consumer Protection Act as they apply to gasoline and other goods and services. We have received an overwhelming influx of reports from across Kentucky regarding gasoline price spikes and even rationing. I felt it was important to get the price gouging protections in place as soon as possible to protect the commonwealth’s consumers and businesses,” General Conway said.

http://www.wave3.com/global/st…

Governor Steve Beshear was quick to respond:

“I am outraged by the voracious practices of price gouging we are seeing,” Gov. Beshear said at a press conference Friday afternoon. “Today, I have taken an extraordinary step to protect the consumers of the commonwealth from these predators.”

The emergency declaration, issued before Hurricane Ike hits the coast, triggers several consumer protection measures.  Among them, it empowers the Attorney General to investigate and prosecute, where appropriate, those who sell gasoline, building supplies and other goods for predatory pricing in a time of disaster.

Gov. Beshear and Attorney General Jack Conway have partnered to make aggressive consumer protection a priority, launching an investigation earlier this summer into high gas prices in Louisville.

http://www.wave3.com/global/st…

This goes to show what Kentucky Democrats can do when they work together, fighting for what is right. Almost as soon as Gov. Beshear issued his order, gas prices in Paducah went from $4.59 and $4.55 a gallon to $3.99 and $3.95. Our former Republican Governor would not have dreamed of such a measure. These actions recieved quick praise from the KDP:

The Governor’s action today will allow many consumer protections to be put into force.  Under the order, Attorney General Jack Conway is empowered to investigate and, if appropriate, prosecute anyone who sells gasoline, building materials and other products at predatory pricing levels during a time of disaster.

If you have any specific information regarding price gouging practices at a gas station or retail outlet, please contact the Attorney General’s office.

On the heels of last week’s announcement to make health insurance available to more of Kentucky’s children, Governor Beshear has again demonstrated his leadership and commitment to Kentucky’s hard working families.

Sincerely,

Jennifer A. Moore

Chair, Kentucky Democratic Party

Heather Ryan, Democratic candidate in Kentucky’s First Congressional District where most of the almost-gouging was centered was also quick to praise our Democratic State leaders:

KUDOS goes out to Governor Beshear for issuing an Executive Order earlier today to prevent price gouging of gasoline and other essential supplies due to the impending hurricane in the Gulf Coast.  When we were returning from a campaign function last night, we witnessed two local gas stations raising their prices a whopping $0.90 a gallon.  I immediately called my campaign manager to ask if we had invaded another oil rich country – since that could be the only reason I could think of that would justify these huge price increases.  Upon hearing that we were still only illegally occupying the same oil rich countries, I realized that the citizens of Western Kentucky were experiencing even worse price gouging at the expense of an industry who has already taken so much for so long, but whose appetite is never satiated.  

Not surprisingly, after the emergency order, those two gas stations dropped their prices by $0.60 a gallon.  It is the leadership and protection from our Governor, Lt. Governor and Attorney General that helps stave off some of the effects of the greedy oil industry.  It is unfortunate and criminal that our representative in Congress does not feel the same responsibility toward those he represents.  Of course, why would he feel that loyalty?  The man doesn’t live in Kentucky and because of his financial conflict-of-interest in Big Oil, he is not effected the same by the outrageous price of gasoline.  Instead, his wallet increasingly benefits when Exxon and Chevron post record profits.  I intend to change that in November.  

Heather Ryan

Her opponents answer to high gas prices? Driving an empty tractor-trailer with his face on it all over Western Kentucky:

Kentucky Democrats have shown that they will fight for us once in office. With the election in Nov. up in the air, and our lead in the Congressional Generic Ballot dwindling, it is more important than ever that we stand up and fight for a Democrat that will make a difference in the Congress, Heather Ryan. She is right on the cusp of making big noise in this district, and will be filming her first T.V. ad in the next several days. Please help us get on the airwaves and defeat Exxon Ed Whitfield, and join “Fighting Kentucky Democrats” in representing what is right:

Anyone donating $30 or more will automatically get an awesome Ryan for Congress t-shirt sent to them!!

I will put in the first $30, who will match me??

Thanks to our Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, and to Heather Ryan and Jennifer Moore for being great Democratic leaders. With leaders such as these, our state is definately looking blue!!

 

One of the many interesting features at 538.com, and one that they’ve particularly drilled into the heads of the blogosphere, is the notion of the “tipping point” states. In other words, which states are in the middle of the left-to-right spectrum and the likeliest to be the ones that put a presidential candidate over the required 270 electoral votes to win (and thus get the most emphasis)?

This left me wondering: is this something that can be applied at the state level to identify which counties are the likeliest to be the decisive ones in terms of which way the state falls? Of course, the method is a little different, because a state is won simply by reaching a plurality of votes, rather than through the complicated machinery of the Electoral College. So while a Democratic campaign might particularly emphasize the swing voters clustered in a state’s median counties, it would also certainly want to push turnout in strongly-Democratic urban areas and still try to mine as many votes dispersed around conservative rural areas. But in an era of micro-targeting (via cable, internet ads, direct mail, etc.), knowing where the decisive voters are located, and how an entire state pivots around them, seems critical.

Naturally, I don’t have access to up-to-the-minute county-by-county polling data, so what I tried is arranging every county in each state from highest Democratic percentage to lowest Democratic percentage, for both the presidential races in 2004 and 2000, and then finding in which county the 50% mark fell, in terms of total number of votes. As you’ll note, the usual location tends to be an affluent suburban county, home to the stereotypical moderate swing voter. The tipping point tends to be in a slightly Republican-leaning county (even in some bluish states like Minnesota), which reflects, well, that the Republicans won the last two presidential elections, as well as the heavy concentration of Democratic votes in a few urban counties in many states.

I’m restricting my list to the states where there are prominent statewide races this year, as well as a few states where there isn’t a prominent statewide race but that are key to the presidential race (yes, I know this is Swing State Project, but I also know what everyone is fixated on right now, with the realization that the presidential race is going to turn into yet another house-by-house battle in a few key swing states… so if nothing else, this can be a handy scorecard for watching election returns in November). Rather than list every single freakin’ county in each state, I’m listing only counties with more than 100,000 residents (c. 2000). I’m also listing the D and R percentages for each county for each year. The !!! indicates the county where the tipping point falls. (In a few cases, it fell in a small rural county instead, which I’ll mention in the footnotes.)

Let’s start with Colorado, which is on a lot of people’s minds right now. Other states are over the flip…

County	2004	County	2000
Denver	70/29	Denver	62/31
Boulder	66/32	Pueblo	54/42
Pueblo	53/46	Adams	50/44
Adams	51/48	Boulder	50/36
Arapahoe	47/51	Arapahoe	43/51
Larimer !!!	47/52	Jefferson !!!	43/51
Jefferson	47/52	Larimer	39/53
Weld	36/63	Weld	36/58
Douglas	33/67	Douglas	31/65
El Paso	32/67	El Paso	31/64
Mesa	32/67	Mesa	30/63

Florida

County	2004	County	2000
Broward	64/35	Broward	67/31
Leon	61/38	Palm Beach	62/35
Palm Beach	60/39	Leon	60/38
Alachua	56/43	Alachua	55/40
Miami-Dade	53/47	St. Lucie	53/44
St. Lucie	52/48	Volusia	53/45
Volusia	50/49	Miami-Dade	53/46
Orange	50/50	Osceola	51/47
Pinellas	50/50	Pinellas	50/46
Osceola	47/52	Orange	50/48
Hillsborough !!!	46/53	Hernando	50/47
Hernando	46/53	Pasco !!!	49/48
Sarasota	45/54	Hillsborough	47/50
Pasco	44/54	Sarasota	45/52
Charlotte	43/56	Manatee	45/53
Manatee	43/57	Polk	45/53
Citrus	42/57	Citrus	45/52
Martin	42/57	Brevard	45/53
Duval	42/58	Charlotte	44/53
Brevard	42/58	Marion	43/54
Seminole	41/58	Seminole	43/55
Marion	41/58	Martin	43/55
Polk	41/59	Lake	41/56
Indian River	39/60	Duval	41/57
Lee	39/60	Lee	40/58
Lake	39/61	Indian River	40/58
Collier	34/65	Escambia	35/63
Escambia	34/65	Collier	32/66
St. John’s	31/69	St. John’s	32/65
Bay	28/71	Bay	32/66
Clay	23/76	Clay	25/73
Santa Rosa	22/77	Santa Rosa	25/72
Okaloosa	22/78	Okaloosa	24/74

Georgia

County	2004	County	2000
DeKalb	73/27	DeKalb	70/27
Clayton	70/29	Clayton	65/33
Fulton	59/40	Fulton	58/40
Clarke	58/40	Richmond	55/44
Richmond	57/43	Muscogee	54/45
Muscogee	51/48	Clarke	52/41
Bibb	51/49	Bibb	50/48
Chatham	50/50	Chatham	49/49
Cobb !!!	37/62	Cobb !!!	37/60
Gwinnett	33/66	Houston	36/63
Houston	33/66	Gwinnett	32/64
Henry	33/67	Henry	31/66
Hall	21/78	Hall	27/70
Cherokee	20/79	Cherokee	23/73

Indiana

County	2004	County	2000
Lake	61/38	Lake	62/36
Monroe	53/45	La Porte	50/48
Marion	51/49	St. Joseph	49/49
La Porte	50/49	Vigo	48/50
St. Joseph	48/51	Marion	48/49
Vigo	46/53	Delaware	47/50
Porter	45/54	Porter	45/52
Delaware	43/56	Madison	45/54
Vanderburgh	41/59	Vanderburgh	44/54
Madison	40/59	Monroe	44/48
Tippecanoe	40/59	Tippecanoe *	39/56
Allen *	36/63	Allen	36/62
Elkhart	29/70	Elkhart	30/67
Hendricks	26/73	Johnson	28/70
Johnson	26/74	Hendricks	27/71
Hamilton	25/74	Hamilton	24/74

Maine

County	2004	County	2000
Cumberland	58/40	Androscoggin	53/41
Androscoggin	54/44	Kennebec	53/41
York !!!	53/45	Cumberland	52/41
Kennebec	53/45	York !!!	49/45
Penobscot	49/49	Penobscot	45/49

Michigan

County	2004	County	2000
Wayne	69/30	Wayne	69/29
Washtenaw	63/35	Genesee	63/35
Genesee	60/39	Washtenaw	60/36
Ingham	58/41	Ingham	57/39
Muskegon	55/44	Bay	55/43
Bay	54/45	Muskegon	55/43
Saginaw	53/46	Saginaw	54/44
Kalamazoo	51/48	Monroe	51/47
Oakland !!!	50/49	Macomb	50/48
Macomb	49/50	Calhoun	50/48
Monroe	49/51	Oakland !!!	49/48
Calhoun	48/51	Kalamazoo	48/48
Eaton	46/53	St. Clair	48/49
St. Clair	45/54	Eaton	47/50
Berrien	44/55	Jackson	45/52
Jackson	43/56	Berrien	43/55
Kent	40/59	Livingston	38/59
Livingston	36/63	Kent	38/59
Allegan	36/63	Allegan	35/63
Ottawa	28/72	Ottawa	27/71

Minnesota

County	2004	County	2000
St. Louis	65/34	St. Louis	60/33
Ramsey	63/36	Ramsey	57/36
Hennepin	59/39	Hennepin	54/39
Dakota !!!	48/50	Dakota !!!	47/48
Washington	48/51	Anoka	47/48
Olmsted	47/52	Washington	46/48
Anoka	46/53	Olmsted	43/52
Stearns	43/55	Stearns	40/52

Mississippi

County	2004	County	2000
Hinds	59/40	Hinds	53/43
Harrison !!!	36/63	Harrison *	36/61
Jackson	30/69	Jackson	31/67
De Soto	27/72	De Soto	27/71
Rankin	20/79	Rankin	19/80

Missouri

County	2004	County	2000
St. Louis city	80/19	St. Louis city	77/20
Jackson	58/41	Jackson	59/38
St. Louis	54/45	St. Louis	51/46
Boone	50/50	Jefferson	50/48
Jefferson	49/50	Clay	49/49
Clay !!!	46/53	Boone !!!	48/48
St. Charles	41/59	St. Charles	42/56
Greene	37/62	Greene	40/57
Jasper	29/71	Jasper	31/66

New Hampshire

County	2004	County	2000
Strafford	56/44	Strafford	51/43
Merrimack	52/47	Merrimack	48/47
Hillsborough !!!	48/51	Hillsborough !!!	47/49
Rockingham	47/52	Rockingham	46/49

New Mexico

County	2004	County	2000
Santa Fe	71/28	Santa Fe	65/28
Bernalillo !!!	51/47	Dona Ana	51/46
Dona Ana	51/48	Bernalillo !!!	49/47
San Juan	33/66	San Juan	35/62

North Carolina

County	2004	County	2000
Durham	68/32	Durham	64/36
Orange	67/32	Orange	63/36
Robeson	53/47	Robeson	60/39
Mecklenburg	52/48	Cumberland	50/49
Guilford	50/49	Guilford	49/51
Buncombe	49/50	Mecklenburg	48/51
Wake	49/51	Wake	46/53
Cumberland	48/52	Pitt	46/54
Pitt	46/53	Buncombe *	45/54
Forsyth !!!	46/54	New Hanover	44/55
New Hanover	44/56	Forsyth	43/56
Alamance	38/61	Wayne	38/61
Wayne	38/62	Alamance	37/62
Cabarrus	33/67	Onslow	34/65
Rowan	32/67	Iredell	34/65
Catawba	32/67	Rowan	34/66
Gaston	32/68	Johnston	33/66
Johnston	32/68	Cabarrus	33/66
Iredell	32/68	Gaston	33/67
Onslow	30/69	Catawba	32/67
Union	29/70	Union	32/68
Davidson	29/71	Davidson	31/68
Randolph	25/74	Randolph	27/73

Ohio

County	2004	County	2000
Cuyahoga	67/33	Cuyahoga	63/33
Mahoning	63/37	Mahoning	61/35
Trumbull	62/38	Trumbull	60/36
Lucas	60/40	Lucas	58/39
Summit	57/43	Lorain	53/43
Lorain	56/43	Summit	53/43
Franklin	54/45	Ashtabula	50/45
Portage	53/46	Portage	50/45
Ashtabula	53/46	Montgomery	50/48
Montgomery	51/49	Franklin	49/48
Stark !!!	51/49	Clark	49/48
Clark	49/51	Stark !!!	47/49
Lake	48/51	Columbiana	46/49
Columbiana	47/52	Lake	45/50
Hamilton	47/53	Wood	43/53
Wood	46/53	Hamilton	43/54
Medina	43/57	Medina	40/56
Richland	40/60	Richland	39/57
Greene	39/61	Greene	38/58
Wayne	38/61	Licking	37/60
Licking	38/62	Fairfield	35/62
Fairfield	37/63	Wayne	35/61
Butler	34/66	Butler	34/63
Delaware	34/66	Allen	32/65
Allen	33/66	Delaware	31/66
Clermont	29/71	Clermont	30/67
Warren	28/72	Warren	28/70

Oregon

County	2004	County	2000
Multnomah	72/27	Multnomah	64/28
Lane	58/40	Lane	52/40
Washington	52/46	Washington	49/46
Clackamas !!!	49/50	Clackamas !!!	47/48
Marion	44/54	Marion	44/51
Jackson	43/55	Jackson	39/54
Deschutes	42/56	Deschutes	38/56
Linn	38/60	Linn	38/57
Douglas	33/66	Douglas	30/64

Pennsylvania

County	2004	County	2000
Philadelphia	80/19	Philadelphia	80/18
Allegheny	57/42	Lackawanna	60/36
Delaware	57/42	Fayette	57/40
Lackawanna	56/42	Allegheny	57/40
Montgomery	56/44	Delaware	54/43
Erie	54/46	Montgomery	54/44
Fayette	53/46	Washington	53/44
Luzerne	51/48	Erie	53/44
Bucks	51/48	Beaver	53/44
Beaver	51/48	Luzerne	52/44
Lehigh !!!	51/48	Northampton	51/45
Washington	50/50	Bucks !!!	50/46
Northampton	50/49	Cambria	50/46
Monroe	50/50	Mercer	49/47
Cambria	49/51	Lehigh	49/48
Mercer	48/51	Monroe	47/50
Centre	48/52	Westmoreland	46/52
Chester	48/52	Schuylkill	45/51
Berks	46/53	Dauphin	44/53
Dauphin	46/54	Berks	44/53
Schuylkill	45/55	Chester	44/53
Westmoreland	44/56	Centre	43/53
Cumberland	36/64	York	36/61
York	36/64	Butler	35/62
Butler	35/64	Cumberland	35/62
Lancaster	34/66	Lebanon	35/62
Blair	33/66	Blair	35/63
Lebanon	33/67	Lycoming	34/63
Lycoming	31/68	Lancaster	31/66
Franklin	28/71	Franklin	30/67

Virginia

County	2004	County	2000
Richmond city	70/29	Richmond city	65/31
Arlington	68/31	Portsmouth city	63/36
Alexandria city	67/32	Norfolk city	62/35
Norfolk cit	62/37	Alexandria city	61/34
Portsmouth city	61/38	Arlington	60/34
Hampton city	57/42	Hampton city	57/41
Fairfax	53/46	Newport News city	51/47
Newport News city	52/47	Fairfax	47/49
Prince William	46/53	Chesapeake city	45/53
Henrico	46/54	Prince William	45/53
Loudoun *	44/56	Henrico *	43/55
Chesapeake city	42/57	Virginia Beach city	42/56
Virginia Beach city	40/59	Loudoun	41/56
Chesterfield	37/63	Chesterfield	35/63

Washington

County	2004	County	2000
King	65/34	King	60/34
Thurston	56/43	Thurston	52/41
Whatcom	53/45	Snohomish	52/44
Snohomish !!!	53/46	Pierce !!!	51/44
Kitsap	51/47	Kitsap	49/45
Pierce	50/48	Whatcom	46/46
Skagit	48/50	Clark	46/50
Clark	47/52	Skagit	45/49
Spokane	43/55	Spokane	43/52
Yakima	39/60	Yakima	38/59
Benton	32/66	Benton	33/64

The 2004 tipping point in Indiana is Fayette County; Allen is the closest large county.

The 2000 tipping point in Indiana is Wayne County; Tippecanoe is the closest large county.

The 2000 tipping point in Mississippi is Scott County; Harrison is the closest large county.

The 2000 tipping point in North Carolina is Duplin County; Buncombe is the closest large county.

The 2004 tipping point in Virginia is Nottoway County; Loudoun is the closest large county.

The 2000 tipping point in Virginia is Dinwiddie County; Henrico is the closest large county.

(I know that, short of looking at a map, it’s not always readily apparent what cities are in a county or where the county is, so if you have any geographic questions, feel free to ask in the comments.)