Swing State Project

cross-posted from Election Inspection

Latest Senate Polls for 2008:

State	Incumbent	Poll	Dem Candidate	%	Rep Candidate	%
AL	Sessions	Rasmussen 5/27	Figures	29	Sessions	62
AK	Stevens	Research 2000 5/12-5/14	Begich	48	Stevens	43
CO	Allard	Rasmussen 5/19	Mark Udall	47	Schaffer	41
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11	Vernon Jones	29	Saxby Chambliss (i)	58
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11	Dale Cardwell	27	Saxby Chambliss (i)	57
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11	Rand Knight	25	Saxby Chambliss (i)	58
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11	Josh Lanier	24	Saxby Chambliss (i)	57
GA	Chambliss	Rasmussen 3/20	Jim Martin	33	Chambliss	51
ID	Craig	Robinson Research 11/26-12/12	LaRocco	27	Risch	46
IA	Tom Harkin	Research 2000 4/21-4/23	Tom Harkin	57	George Eichorn	28
IA	Tom Harkin	Research 2000 4/21-4/23	Tom Harkin	58	Steve Rathje	23
IA	Tom Harkin	Research 2000 4/21-4/23	Tom Harkin	59	Christopher Reed	20
KS	Pat Roberts	Research 2000 6/2-6/4	Slattery	38	Roberts	50
KY	McConnell	Rasmussen 5/22	Bruce Lunsford	49	McConnell	44
LA	Landrieu	Rasmussen 5/28	Landrieu	47	Kennedy	44
ME	Collins	Rasmussen 5/14	Allen	42	Collins	52
MA	Kerry	Rasmussen 5/29	Kerry	63	Jim Ogonowski	29
MA	Kerry	Rasmussen 5/29	Kerry	63	Jeff Beatty	25
MI	Levin	Rasmussen 5/7	Levin	54	Hoogendyk	37
MN	Coleman	Rasmussen 5/22	Franken	45	Coleman	47
MS-A	Cochran	Rasmussen 5/27	Fleming	35	Cochran	58
MS-B	Wicker	Rasmussen 5/27	Musgrove	47	Wicker	46
NE	Hagel	Research 2000 5/19-5/21	Kleeb	31	Johanns	58
NH	Sununu	Rasmussen 5/20	Shaheen	50	Sununu	43
NM	Domenici	SUSA 5/30-6/1	Tom Udall	60	Steve Pearce	35
NC	Dole	PPP 5/28-5/29	Kay Hagan	39	Dole	47
OK	Inhofe	Soonerpoll.com 12/16-12/19	Andrew Rice	19	Inhofe	60
OR	Smith	Rasmussen 5/7	Jeff Merkley	42	Smith	45
SD	Johnson	Rasmussen 3/4	Johnson	63	Joel Dykstra	28
TN	Alexander	Rasmussen 4/3	Bob Tuke	30	Alexander	59
TN	Alexander	Rasmussen 4/3	Mike Padgett	31	Alexander	58
TX	Cornyn	Baselice & Associates (R) 5/20-5/25	Noriega	33	Cornyn	49
TX	Cornyn	Research 2000 5/5-5/7	Noriega	44	Cornyn	48
VA	John Warner	Rasmussen 5/8	Mark Warner	55	Gilmore	37

Democrats currently lead in all Democratic-held seats and in 7 GOP-held seats (AK, CO, KY, MS, NH, NM, VA) – although there is considerable skepticism about Rasmussen’s Kentucky poll. That would mean ousting 4 GOP incumbents (Stevens, McConnell, Wicker, Sununu), although Wicker is merely an appointee to an open seat. The GOP has only one good pickup opportunity – Louisiana, where Landrieu is up by only 3. We are within 5 points of defeating incumbents in Minnesota, Oregon, and Texas (I don’t count GOP internal polls). This means we are less than a 5 point swing away from a 60 seat filibuster-proof majority, which relegates the GOP to the back seat where legislation is concerned.

Beyond that, we trail by only 8 points in North Carolina, 10 points in Maine, and 12 points in Kansas. Remember what the Virginia race looked like at this point in time last year.

57 – in hand. 60 – within our grasp. 63 – within reason.

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of Democratic House candidate long before filings close.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

3 more House races have a Democratic candidate that has filed in the last three weeks:

OK-01 – R+13,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

But one race goes back to uncontested:

LA-01 – R+18,

So 419 races filled! This of course includes 236 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 183 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 183

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0

Districts with rumoured candidates – 2

Districts without any candidates – 3

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 11

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-02 – R+13,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-06 – R+8,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

ID-02 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-04 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-10 – R+4,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-08 – R+11,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-01 – R+13,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

OK-05 – R+12,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

UT-01 – R+26,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-01 – R+9,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

None at this stage

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

LA-07 – R+7,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-05 – R+10,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

AL-06 – R+25,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

KY-05 – R+8

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennesee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in New York and Wisconsin. Thats 42 states with a full slate, and 2 states with one race to fill!  

There are also 5 states where filing has closed where we do not have a full slate: Arkansas, Alabama, California, Kentucky and of course Texas. Lets hope the last 3 –  Louisiana, New York and Wisconsin fill out.

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! The other 2, TX-11 and AL-06, will again go uncontested by Team Blue in 2008.

With 11 uncontested Republicans we will not reach our great 2006 effort of 425 races filled but we will do really well nonetheless.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

Will the GOP be able to mount a competent challenge to recently-elected Rep. Don Cazayoux?

That entirely depends on candidate recruitment, and Republicans have one new name in the mix. Bill Cassidy, a state senator and physician from Baton Rouge, told the Republican State Central Committee in Louisiana earlier today that he’s definitely in the race against Cazayoux.

Cassidy was first elected to the state senate in 2006, but on paper he would bring a couple of key advantages to the GOP in this race: 1) His base is in Baton Rouge, the district’s population center and the area that delivered this race for Cazayoux in May; and 2) he’s not Woody Jenkins.

However, a Cassidy nomination is not guaranteed. In the same Baton Rouge Advocate article, both special election loser Jenkins and primary loser/lobbyist Laurinda Calongne sound ready to make another kick at the can.

Interestingly, the article detects a hint of fear among the Republicans over Barack Obama’s voter registration efforts:

But Jenkins said Republicans have their work cut out because of Obama, who has raised $300 million in the current election cycle. “He’s doubled what been raised by John McCain and he’s only just begun,” Jenkins said.

Obama supporters have already started voter registration drives in the state, reportedly signing up 90,000 in four parishes alone, he said.

“We need to wake up … we don’t need any part-time Republicans. We need to recognize we are in the fight of our life,” Jenkins said. “Are we asleep on the beach waiting for the tsunami to hit?”

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic.

You know, Exxon Ed Whitfield has been a failure as Congressman of Kentucky’s First Congressional District. He has held this seat since 1994, and we have achieved no progress. No better jobs, no better wages, thousands still without healthcare, and the list goes on. One thing Exxon Eddie’s tenure in the Congress has brought though, is a national debt spiraling out of control. Yes, every child born in his district owes $20,000 automatically to the debt rubber-stamped by Exxon Eddie.

The sad part is that Exxon Eddie knows he has been a failure and evidently doesn’t care. He has become a millionaire during his tenure as Congressman, so why should he? I found this video on Youtube in which Exxon Eddie does a pretty good job of detailing many failures:

So, Eddie knows it takes a Democratic President to run our country competently. He will be relieved after we elect one this fall.

What I wonder is how Exxon Eddie can bemoan all the irresponsible spending he was part of? I mean, he rubber-stamped every failed vision presented by President Bush. They together have wasted what will be a trillion dollars in Iraq, and Exxon Eddie can just whine about the fact that we have spent too much on our own people within our own borders for Homeland Security?

I have some bad news for you Eddie. We have not spent ENOUGH on securing our homeland. We are just as vulnerable to a terrorist attack as we were on 9-11-01. While you were rubber-stamping Bush at the behest of Mitch McConnell, essential funding has been denied our first responders here at home. When the time came that Kentucky and our country desperately needed you to stand up to your party, and its incompetent leader you failed us miserably. You rubber-stamped each blank check as it flew out the door.

Your time has come and gone. When you came to Congress you promised to fight against irresponsible government waste and partisan gridlock. You promised to stand as your own person against your party if needed. On all points you have FAILED!! Our debt is huge again and growing, Energy prices are soaring taking the prices of everything else with them, and you have followed blindly behind a neo-conservative failed vision like a whipped puppy dog.

We need a real leader in Kentucky’s First District. We need a new leader with new ideas and real courage. We need a new generation of leadership to stand up and bring modern solutions to modern problems. We need a leader who lives and works among us and isn’t afraid to fight for us over any special interest group, or even the leaders of their party if need be.

Luckily, in Kentucky’s First Congressional District we have a leader from a new generation stepping up to serve. She is a wife, mother, veteran, and citizen of this district. She lives and works among us, and knows the challenges we face because she is there facing them with us every single day. She is educated, young, energetic, smart, and most of all has the courage to fight for what is right for Kentucky’s First. She is Heather Ryan, Democrat for Kentucky. If you think she is not ready to fight, just watch this speech:

If you think she doesn’t know firsthand the pain Americans are feeling, watch this video:

She knows what it means to be a Democrat:

You can also watch my interview with Heather for bluegrassroots.org here:

Most importantly you can go to Americans for Ryan, my Actblue page and help us win this race. If we get the resources to both introduce our awesome candidate and point out how terrible our opponent has been, we will win. We are grassroots “Fighting Democrats” that care about the direction of our country and the effects it is having on our neighbors. If you are looking for a race that can really change the make-up of the next Congress and pull a trend-setting upset this is it!! Please support us here:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

We have an honest hard-working Democrat that needs our help!!!

DFL delegates are convening in Rochester to decide the party’s endorsement in the Senate race against Norm Coleman. Our friends over at Minnesota Campaign Report and MN Publius are blogging the event in real time. Check it out.

Here’s one interesting tidbit: Rep. Keith Ellison is apparently wearing a Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer button on the floor and attempting to persuade delegates to support his candidacy.

UPDATE: According to MN Publius, Franken was endorsed on the first ballot with 62% of the vote. To be honest, that’s a stronger showing that I had expected.

It looks like the regional fight between Burlington and Ocean Counties in Southern Jersey that came out in the GOP primary to suceed Rep. Jim Saxton may be spilling over into the general election, much to the benefit of the Democrats.  

The infighting between the two county GOP organizations has been simmering for some time.  In the wake of Ocean County’s nominee Jack Kelly getting trounced in the primary by Burlington’s Chris Myers, Ocean County’s GOP chair, George Gilmore, issued a warning:

“Chris Myers ran a very negative, personal attack against Jack Kelly. I think Mr. Myers has to recognize the consequences of taking such action.”

This is interesting for several reasons.  First, the anger between the two county organiztions is very bitter, and has not healed since Tuesday.  Ocean County and its GOP leadership is much more conservative and combative than Burlington, and this is well demonstrated by Gilmore himself.  

Second, Gilmore is completely capable of cutting of his nose to spite the GOP’s face.  In fact, he has done it before.  Early in the campaign, soon after Saxton announced his retirement, many in the state and national GOP were trying desperately to coax popular moderate State Sen. Diane Allen into the race.  Allen would have unquestionably been the GOP’s best nominee, and probably would have held the seat for the GOP.  The problem?  Allen is from Edgewater Park Township in Burlington County, and this did not gibe with Gilmore who announced he would put a separate Ocean candidate if Allen ran.  After Gilmore put up a stink, Allen opted to avoid the headache of fighting with Ocean County and Gilmore and not to make a go of it, much to the chagrin of the NRCC.    

Third, Gilmore is the head NJ’s GOP County Chairmen as well as the head of one of the GOP’s most powerful (and last remaining) Republican machines.  If he decided to snub Myers, it would guarantee that we win the seat.  

In sum, Gilmore has already hurt the GOP twice in this race by helping force Sen. Allen out of the race, and then running Kelly to weaken eventual winner Myers.  Let us hope he continues acting stupid.

http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.d…

Roads?  Where we’re going, we don’t need roads.

UPDATE: Jim Ogonowski has officially withdrawn from the Senate race against John Kerry. Once again, all together: Haw-haw!

Like many Americans, I am in the process of building a stock portfolio to help invest in me, my family and my son’s future. But I also want to invest in my country. I am building a portfolio of five House districts to cotribute $50 each month (or $25 if I change my find). The district are based on the following criteria:

1. It is currently occupied by a Republican.

2. One district per region.

3. Rated tossup by the Cook Political Report, a typically conservative analystical piece.

4. Must be a true tossup. VA-11 is not one of them.

5. Must be in a relatively inexpensive district. I will leave NY-13 to the big boys.

6. Must have a nominee or very likely nominee.

Thus far I have chosen the following districts:

1. West/Southwest: Betsy Markey in the CO-04.

2. Northwest: Darcy Burner in the WA-08.

3. Northeast: Eric Massa in the NY-29.

I need help for the final two. In the Midwest, I am split between Dan Seals in the IL-10, Mark Schaur in the MI-07 and John Boccieri in the OH-16. I am skipping OH-15 because it is a bit pricey. Also, I am trying to decide how likely Paul Carmouche will be the nominee in the LA-04. Your help or other suggestions would be much appreciated. Thanks.

Cooper & Secrest for Michael Montagano (likely voters, 4/24 and 4/26-27):

Michael Montagano (D): 28

Mark Souder (R-inc): 55

(MoE: ±4%)

You might remember Indiana’s 3rd CD as one of those freak races from 2006. An R+16.3 district, Democrat Tom Hayhurst waged a decently-financed campaign that hit hard against Washington corruption and the status quo. In the end, he held incumbent Rep. Mark Souder to a surprisingly close 54-46 result, which is none too shabby in a district that gave Bush 68% in 2004.

This time, the numbers clearly show an uphill fight for Democrat Michael Montagano. But while he may be unknown right now, Montagano has raised a decent amount of money, currently sitting at #14 on SSP’s Cash-on-Hand Competitiveness rankings.

Other findings from the poll offer glimmers of hope: Souder’s job approval is at a mediocre 46% positive/46% negative.  And while it is pushy, 46% agree and 44% disagree with the following statement: “We can’t change the culture of Congress unless we change our Reps; it’s time for Souder to come home and for someone else to represent us.”

This race is one of the longer long shots, but it’s still worth watching.