Swing State Project

Rasmussen (5/14, likely voters, 4/1 in parens):

Tom Allen (D): 42 (38)

Susan Collins (R-inc): 52 (54)

(MoE: ±4%)

Finally, some good movement here for Allen.  While Collins’ sky-high favorables will be a tough obstacle here, there’s still plenty of time for this race to heat up.

The same round of polling shows Barack Obama crushing McCain by a nice 51-38 margin here, which certainly doesn’t hurt Allen’s chances.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

Update: It’s very heartening to see that Tom Allen is stepping up his attacks on Collins over her pitiful performance as chair of the Homeland Security Committee from 2003-2007.

Two years ago (almost to the day), David brought me on board the Swing State Project as a contributing editor.  The past two years have been an absolute blast, which is why I’m very pleased to announce a couple of important milestones in SSP history:

1) Earlier this month, we received our four millionth visitor since David began publishing this site in 2003.

2) This diary marks our 2000th post since we moved over to Soapblox from Movable Type in November 2006.

I’d like to take this opportunity to thank everyone who visits and reads the Swing State Project for your valuable insights in the comments and user diaries sections.  It is you guys who have really made this site a success.  Take a well-deserved bow.

Depending on who you talk to, it sure sounds like John Boehner and crew want to send Tom Cole’s sorry ass packing — and fast.  From The Hill:

Speculation continued to swirl that some members of the leadership team want to remove Cole and install Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), a former NRCC chairman, as his replacement. One former senior GOP leadership aide close to the leadership team said there have been  “quiet conversations” with Davis about taking the NRCC chairmanship, and that GOP leaders believe he will do so if asked.

Finding an appropriate way to get rid of Cole, though, remains the primary obstacle, the source said.

“Leadership can’t fire Tom Cole,” the former staffer said. “If they could, yes, they would. It doesn’t appear that the conference wants to self-initiate, but people at the leadership table think he needs to step down and he needs to step down soon.”

Thursday afternoon, the source said, leaders were trying to find a way to pressure Cole to make several changes at the party committee that he may not be able to stomach, such as firing staff and accepting new hires of the leaders’ choosing. Leaders want the change at the top to occur before the Memorial Day recess, sources said.

You may recall that, last September, Cole threatened to resign after Boehner attempted to force some personnel changes at the NRCC.  So this would be a roundabout way of showing Cole the door.

How long do you give Cole?  Two weeks?  Or another six months?

SurveyUSA (5/12-14, registered voters, 11/16-18 in parens):

Tom Udall (D): 60 (54)

Steve Pearce (R): 36 (40)

Tom Udall (D): 61 (56)

Heather Wilson (R): 35 (41)

(MoE: ±2.3%)

This race is really starting to look like a lost cause for Republicans.

Here’s the primary head-to-head between Pearce and Wilson:

Steve Pearce (R): 49 (37)

Heather Wilson (R): 46 (56)

(MoE: ±4.8%)

Pearce has surged somethin’ fierce since December, but his lead is within the margin of error.  I think we’d be better off facing Pearce in November, so I’ll cheer him on.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic.

Primary: 6/3

(Hat-tip: ChadinFL)

1Q, 2Q, 3Q, 4Q: First Quarter, Second Quarter, etc. Refers to the quarterly periods at the end of which campaigns must submit fundraising reports to the FEC. Note: Some organizations must file reports more frequently. Also, campaigns usually have to file additional reports around election time, including primaries.

DCCC: Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

DNC: Democratic National Committee.

DSCC: Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

FEC: Federal Election Commission. Tasked with ensuring compliance with our nation’s election laws.

GOP: Grand Old Party – i.e., the Republicans, aka the enemy.

IE: Independent Expenditure. An expenditure “expressly advocating the election or defeat of a clearly identified candidate” made by an outside group. IEs may be made in unlimited amounts. (Though groups making them have to comply with the relevant laws that govern their fundraising.) Crucially, groups which make IEs are prohibited by law from coordinating with the campaign they are supporting. IE reports can be found here.

MoE: Margin of Error. A statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in a survey’s results. Used in describing polls. The larger the margin of error, the less confidence one should have that the poll’s reported results are close to the “true” figures. See also “N.”

N: Mathematical notation used to denote sample size, i.e., the number of respondents contacted for a particular poll. The greater the n, the lower the margin of error. See also “MoE.”

NRCC: National Republican Congressional Committee.

NRSC: National Republican Senatorial Committee.

PVI: Partisan Voting Index. A measure created by the Cook Political Report that compares the presidential vote in each congressional district to the presidential vote nationwide. A PVI of D+5, for instance, means the district voted five points more Democratic than the nation as a whole; R+5 means it voted five points more Republican.

RNC: Republican National Committee.

According to the lastest Survey USA poll Tom Udall is crushing both potential republican foes.  In head to head matchups Udall leads Pearce by 24 points and Wilson by 26.

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…

Udall (D) – 60

Pearce (R) – 36

Udall (D) – 61

Wilson (R) – 35

In the Republican primary poll Pearce currently leads Wilson by 3.

Pearce – 49

Wilson – 46

My money is on Pearce winning the republican nomination rather easily given he is more conservative than Wilson.  It seems to matter little though which candidate Udall faces, Wilson and Pearce have bloodied each other so badly that neither can win the general.  Then number that really jumps out at me is Udall carrying >70% of the Hispanic vote.  That is HUGE in a state like NM.

Unlike former Congressman Duke Cunningham–who is now serving time–recently-indicted New Orleans Congressman William Jefferson is not accused of putting earmarks into Congressional bills for companies that gave him things of value. Jefferson got no golden commodes or multi-million dollar yachts nor Jack Abramoff golfing trips to Scotland.

His family got some contracts to provide Internet services in Nigeria and other countries. And, in return, they… well, they provided Internet services. It’s kind of hard to make a case against a Congressman for a thing like that.

The U.S. Attorney (eager to keep his job by making a case against a Democrat?) was convinced Jefferson was doing bad stuff, but what?

So the U.S. Attorney decided to nail him the way 7 poor saps in Miami were nailed in that “major terrorist plot”–they took FBI money to participate in a plot the FBI dreamed up…something about blowing up a building in Chicago. These homeys were induced to take the money (with which they bought sneakers and other goodies for themselves) and they participated in conversations about blowing up that building, and they’re still in jail.

Ergo, the pizza-parlor owners in New York–FBI money, FBI plot, poor boys taking money that was lavished upon them and going with the flow, saying naughty things about blowing up the Pakistani ambassador with a shoulder-fired missile, which was never going to happen: they didn’t know the Pakistani ambassador from a pepperoni sausage and couldn’t have cared less, but what struggling entrepreneur is going to turn down $60,000 that falls from the sky?

The FBI scheme worked in those cases and others, so $90,000 was assembled, FBI undercover agents posing as businessmen gave it to Congressman William Jefferson to use as a bribe that was to be paid to the Vice-President of Nigeria, and Jefferson took the money.

And put it in his freezer.

He never bribed the vice-president of Nigeria, nor any other official.

Jeb Bush’s company did.

And the president of Nigeria gave Jeb a 1300-horse parade.

Nigeria borrowed money from the U.S. government to buy faulty pumps from MWI (Moving Water Incorporated.) Millions of these U.S. taxpayer dollars went into bribes for Nigerian officials. More millions went to Bush’s partner. Bush himself got $300,000 from a company he co-owned with the owner of MWI for work he never did. The rusty water pumps were delivered, but never used.

(The same company, MWI, delivered faulty water pumps to New Orleans under a huge contract. The pumps can’t function as promised, but the Corps of Engineers approved them anway. The corps, as well as MWI, are being investigated. )

(There’s also a Department of Justice investigation of the Bush-MWI deal with Nigeria, but that’s been going on for years with no end in sight.)

Justice moved swifter for Congressman Jefferson. He didn’t pay that bribe to the Nigerian vice-president. He took the FBI’s money and stashed it in his freezer. The FBI raided his Congressional offices and even Republican Speaker Dennis Hastert was outraged. It was the first time in the 250 year history of Congress that such a thing had happened. The FBI raided his home and found their marked money in his freezer. Talking points went out to the media and Jefferson was convicted by the networks. But not in court. Not yet. And, quite possibly, not ever.

Jefferson has already been convicted in the media, but don’t count on a conviction in court.

This has been a guest post by Randy Reynolds.  

The Cook Political Report’s House editor Davis Wasserman just revised his outlook for Democratic gains and now estimates a 10 to 20 seat pickup for Democrats.

House Editor David Wasserman examines the outlook in the House following the special election outcome in Mississippi’s 1st CD. The Cook Political Report now estimates that Democrats will gain between 10 and 20 seats in the House.

In addition, he has revised the WV-02 race slightly in our favor.

MS-01- Travis Childers- Republican Toss Up to Democratic Toss Up

WV-02- Shelley Moore Capito- Solid Republican to Likely Republican

Good news all around!

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/12-14, likely voters, 12/3-6 in parens):

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 50 (49)

Don Young (R-inc): 40 (42)

(MoE: ±4%)

I really believe that Young is doomed this year, but I fear that he won’t survive his party’s primary.

On the other hand, with no meaningful primary challenge against him, Stevens very likely will go all the way to November:

Mark Begich (D): 48 (47)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 43 (41)

(MoE: ±4%)

Damn, son.

Another fun fact: Obama only trails McCain by seven points in Alaska, so Begich and Berkowitz won’t be dealing with a John Kerry-like drag at the top of the ticket (Hillary trails by 18 in the same poll).  This is roughly in line with another recent Rasmussen poll, which showed Obama trailing McCain by only five points here.

Alaska could just be a major battleground not only for Berkowitz and Begich, but for Obama, as well.

SSP currently rates AK-AL as “Tossup” and AK-Sen as “Leans Republican“.

Bennett, Petts & Normington (5/6-8):

Glenn Nye (D): 32

Thelma Drake (R-inc): 48

Any incumbent under 50 against a challenger who only has 9% name recognition is not in stellar shape.  Indeed, Drake’s re-elects are at 40%.  After hearing positive statements about both candidates, Nye closes the gap to 45-47.

Democrats have had heartbreak here before, losing narrowly in ’06.  Mark Glenn Nye, who only began his campaign earlier, as a candidate to watch.

SSP currently rates this race as “Likely Republican“.