Swing State Project

A few years ago, when Republicans mentioned the name of Dick Wadhams, a Coloradan protege of Karl Rove, they did so with hushed, awe-struck tones.  It was Wadhams, after all, who guided South Dakota Sen. John Thune to his stinging defeat of Democratic Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle.  He was considered to be Rove's heir-apparent, and thus, in 2006, positioned himself as the top strategist for what was presumed to be an easy re-election race for the GOP's likely 2008 presidential candidate, Virginia Sen. George Allen.  Unlike the tough battle to unseat an incumbent in South Dakota, the Virginia race was supposed to be a cakewalk.  We all know how that turned out– Allen's campaign completely imploded in the wake of his careless use of the word “macaca,” leading to a victory for our candidate, now-Sen. Jim Webb.

A better strategist might have been able to pick up the pieces after “macaca-gate” and get the Allen campaign back on track.  Rove himself was able to do as much with the 2000 Bush campaign, pushing it upright every time its feckless candidate capsized (the incident in which Bush referred to New York Times reporter Adam Clymer as a “major-league asshole” while a microphone was still on, jumps to mind).  Nevertheless, even with this defeat on his resume, Dick Wadhams returned to his native Colorado, to become the state GOP chairman, and to run the campaign for 2008 senate candidate Bob Schaffer, a former congressman.

Because of Wadhams' Colorado roots, the establishment expected him to do much better there than in Virginia.  So far, it's not exactly working; fresh off a scandal involving a Jack Abramoff-funded junket to the Mariana Islands, things were looking bad enough for the Republican candidate.  Now, Team Schaffer has unleashed a new blunder, one that points to ineptitude in the strategy department.

Unlike Wadhams, Bob Schaffer was not born and raised in Colorado; he came to the mountanous state as a young adult, after growing up in Ohio.  As such, Wadhams advised Schaffer to run an ad emphasizing the latter's connetion to the state.  So, the candidate unveiled an ad set against the breathtaking backdrop of a snow-capped mountain, and, in the text of the ad, refers to having proposed to his wife on Pike's Peak, implying that that, the most well-known mountain in Colorado, is the mountain in the background.

The trouble is, it's not Pike's Peak. The stock photo used in the ad turned out to be a picture of Mt. McKinley in Alaska.  While not in the same league as “macaca-gate,” it is certainly a blunder– one that I'm sure is giving Wadhams a headache, as he heads for what may be another major loss on his resume as a strategist.

Frankly, the whole thing comes as a pleasant surprise to me; the conventional wisdom holds that the GOP is the party of message discipline, whose marketing strategies come straight from the world of big business and are, consequently, successful, while the Democrats fumble around and make gaffes all over the place.  The other side has always had its ruthless, amoral Lee Atwaters and Karl Roves, slyly slithering their way to electoral victory while our inept, mealy-mouthed, overly-apologetic strategists like Bob Shrum kept getting re-hired to run the same losing campaign many times over. I'm sure I'm not the only Democrat who gets a satisfying sense of schadenfreude as the GOP runs itself into the ground.

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of Democratic House candidate long before filings close.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

3 more House races have a Democratic candidate that has filed in the last two weeks:

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-10 – R+4,

And one race comes off the list entirely!:

MS-01 – R+10, following Travis Childers superb special election victory!

So 417 races filled! This of course includes 236 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 181 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 181

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0

Districts with rumoured candidates – 4

Districts without any candidates – 3

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 11

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-02 – R+13,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-06 – R+8,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

ID-02 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-04 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-10 – R+4,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-08 – R+11,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-05 – R+12,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

UT-01 – R+26,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-01 – R+9,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

None at this stage

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

LA-07 – R+7,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

LA-05 – R+10,

OK-01 – R+13,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

AL-06 – R+25,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

KY-05 – R+8

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennesee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in New York and Wisconsin. Thats 41 states with a full slate, and 2 states with one race to fill!  

There are also 5 states where filing has closed where we do not have a full slate: Arkansas, Alabama, California, Kentucky and of course Texas. Lets hope the last 4 –  Louisiana, New York, Oklahoma and Wisconsin fill out.

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! The other 2, TX-11 and AL-06, will again go uncontested by Team Blue in 2008.

With 11 uncontested Republicans we will not reach our great 2006 effort of 425 races filled but we will do really well nonetheless.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

In the wake of Democrat Travis Childers’ stunning eight-point special election victory over Republican Greg Davis in Mississippi’s 1st District last night, the Swing State Project is moving its rating of this race from “Tossup” to “Leans Democratic“.  Several factors give Childers the edge here:

1) First, the size of his victory.  At 8 points, this wasn’t nearly as close as many had predicted.  In fact, it was a romp.  After winning 16 of the district’s 24 counties on April 22, Childers won a stunning 20 of 24 counties last night, improving his performance virtually across the board. Notably, he even improved upon his 17% in the ultra-conservative DeSoto County (Davis’ base), winning a full 25% of the vote there in the second round.

2) While John McCain will likely carry this district by a wide margin in November, Childers now enjoys the advantage of incumbency for a brief time. And, if the history of Mississippi’s congressional delegation tells us anything, Mississippi voters like their incumbents.

3) Most importantly, history is not on Greg Davis’ side here. It is extremely rare for the victor of a special election to be defeated in the next general election. Indeed, the only recent example of this scenario occurring was in the 1998 elections, when Republican Bill Redmond of New Mexico lost the Democratic-leaning seat that he won in a 1997 special election. Of course, Redmond’s special election win was a truly special circumstance: a strong Green Party candidate won 17% and split the left-leaning vote. Davis has no such excuse here.

4) Finally, Davis may be left out in the cold by the national GOP the second time around.  The NRCC dumped $1.3 million into the special election here — nearly 20% of their cash-on-hand at the beginning of April — and came up astonishingly short. The NRCC may decide, given their enormous financial disadvantage, that they may have other priorities this fall — like saving their incumbents. The same goes for Freedom’s Crotch.

The full list of SSP’s House Race Ratings is available here.

Strategic Vision polls the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Georgia:

Vernon Jones: 28

Dale Cardwell: 20

Jim Martin: 15

Rand Knight: 11

Josh Lanier: 5

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±5%)

In a general election match-up, neither Jones, Knight, Cardwell, or Lanier can crack a 30-point gap against Saxby Chambliss (a Martin/Chambliss matchup was not polled, for whatever reason).

Still, it’d be a shame if this nomination was handed to a shady, Bush-voting pol like Jones or a joker like Cardwell — just on the off chance that this race gets interesting.

Primary: 7/15; Runoff: 8/5.

Public Opinion Strategies for Jim Ryun (4/27-28, likely voters):

Jim Ryun (R): 65

Lynn Jenkins (R): 21

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Jenkins is holding her fire, stockpiling resources for a big push here in the summer, but this is the second poll in a row to show a big edge for Ryun.  You’ve gotta wonder: just how negative is Jenkins willing to go in order to tighten this race up?

Primary: 8/5

Sure, Tom Cole may be somber, but that doesn’t mean that he isn’t delusional:

“Clearly, we have got problems that are deep and serious in terms of how we are going to do in the fall elections,” Cole said.  “Having said that… we haven’t lost as a party because of the ideological agenda on the other side. The obvious challenge we face is we had somebody running as a Republican, pro-life, pro-gun, who wants to cut taxes, wants to control spending. That’s not particularly in step with where the Democratic majority is. So, that is going to create some opportunities for us. I think those issues clarify and reinforce [our agenda].”

Roy Blunt joins in on the insanity:

GOP Whip Roy Blunt downplayed the GOP’s problems, saying that “six months ago, Rudy Giuliani was the front runner in the Republican contest and Barack Obama did not have a chance.”

Blunt said that Democrats won in Mississippi and Louisiana by running “on what the GOP is for.”

“So we know now that the message works,” he said. “So we have to be sure that nationally, we connect the message with the Republican Party, rather than the other party.”

I understand the art of spin, but did these clowns not watch the election that just unfolded?  Sure, Childers embraced conservative social values that made him a good fit with his Northern Mississippi district.  But he also ran as an unabashed economic populist, and launched scathing attacks against Greg Davis for yukking it up with Dick Cheney.

On oil:

“We need to strip away the subsidies from ExxonMobil and Big Oil,” Childers said to a question about high gasoline prices. “They’re not going to get a lot of sympathy from me.”

On healthcare:

Travis Childers will fight to improve the quality of healthcare, while lowering costs for working families.  He supports expanding the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (S-CHIP), which will provide affordable healthcare to tens of thousands of middle-income children in Mississippi.

On the economy and corporate trade deals:

Our leaders should have been thinking of the economic problems we face today when they passed unfair trade deals that sent our jobs overseas, gave billions in subsidies to big oil companies, ignored the home mortgage crisis, and kept spending as the deficit and national debt hit all time highs.

On Iraq, Childers was the only candidate who favored withdrawal:

He was the only one of five candidates — three Republicans, two Democrats — at a campaign stop in Nesbit last week who said point-blank that U.S. troops don’t belong in Iraq. […]

Childers said he favors coming up with a plan to withdraw troops over 12 to 18 months and leave the Iraqis to fight among themselves, as they have for thousands of years.

He said he’s amazed more people on the campaign trail haven’t asked about a national debt of more than $9 trillion.

“We’re spending our money, folks, in Iraq. We need to be spending our money in America.

If all that is what morons like Tom Cole and Roy Blunt consider a “Republican platform”, then maybe their party isn’t doomed to the electoral dustbin after all.

However, we all know that that is pretty damn far from the truth.

Keep dreaming, GOP.

Trent Thompson encounters Dick Cheney on the campaign trail in Mississippi:

As David articulated last night, the “every man for himself” attitude that is crippling the House GOP conference will only grow stronger in the weeks and months ahead now that the NRCC is left with no excuses for losing a safe seat in Mississippi.

Already, they’re tripping over themselves to lay the blame at someone’s feet:

Texas Rep. Jeb Hensarling, who chairs the conservative Republican Study Committee, defended the campaign chairman during the closed-door session, saying “the problem was not Cole, but the Republican brand” and the lack of well-formulated policy planks articulated by the party.

But other members did point fingers; Tennessee Rep. Marsha Blackburn complained that newly-appointed GOP Sen. Roger Wicker did not do enough to help Republican Greg Davis retain his seat, members in attendance said afterward. Blackburn also explained that an ongoing feud between Republican Sen. Thad Cochran and the state’s recently retired GOP Sen. Trent Lott also played a part in the loss.

How bad is it?  Rumors are raging that Cole might be sacked in favor of retiring Rep. Tom Davis:

The finger-pointing wasn’t just limited to the conference room in the Capitol basement where members met; former NRCC Chairman Tom Davis, who has become a pointed critic of his party and President Bush since announcing his retirement earlier this year, gave members a 20-page memo he typed up over the weekend about what the party needs to do to improve its brand nationally, the Virginia Republican told reporters after the meeting.

“This is the floor,” Davis said, stopping his foot on the concrete. “We’re underneath it.”

Davis, however, dowmplayed a rumor that he would be elevated to replace Cole, and the current job holder said no major changes were in the works at the committee “yet.”

It’s no surprise that a lot of House GOPers would want to sack Cole’s sorry ass, but they may not have a chance with only six months to go until election day.

The Hill sums up the situation in the starkest of terms:

The sky is falling on House Republicans and there is no sign of it letting up.

The GOP loss in Mississippi’s special election Tuesday is the strongest sign yet that the Republican Party is in shambles. And while some Republicans see a light at the end of the tunnel, that light more likely represents the Democratic train that is primed to mow down more Republicans in November.

Get ready to rock this November.  Republicans can run, but they can’t hide.

Update: Blackburn has taken issue with the characterization of her remarks:

Blackburn referred to her former House colleague, but did not criticize him for a lack of effort. She was referring to a rift that emerged during the primary between rival regions in the district, a member present said.

There has been some speculation that state Sen. Diane Savino would be an unlikely candidate for the seat held by Vito Fossella due to her friendship with NYC Councilman Domenic Recchia.  But Savino says that won’t have any bearing on her decision to enter the race, nor will any deference to ’06 nominee Steve Harrison be a factor:

“In life and politics, nothing is fair,” Savino said. “I’m not one of those people who believe, ‘Oh, it’s my turn.’ There’s no such thing as your turn. If you’re willing to put yourself out there and expose every aspect of your life, and devote all your efforts and time to talking to people…then it’s your turn. That’s what it takes to win.”

…Steve’s biggest problem is not that people don’t think it’s his turn,” Savino continued. “Him and Domenic, and I’ve told them this, their biggest problem is they don’t live on Staten Island. Eighty percent of this district is in Staten Island.

One thing about Staten Islanders, they will vote for anybody on any line if they’re from Staten Island versus someone who’s not.”

Savino won’t give a timeline for her decision, but says that she will make an announcement in “due course”.  The New York Daily News‘ Elizabeth Benjamin notes that “petitions start circulating June 3, so at that point everyone’s intentions will be out in the open.”

Jonah in NYC had an excellent diary yesterday on the potential Democratic candidates for this seat.

My name is Dan Seals and as many of you may know, I am running for Congress in Illinois’ 10th district. I wanted to take this opportunity to first thank all of you for the outpouring of support I received through Blue Majority but also to introduce myself as a candidate for Congress.

Like many of you, my decision to get politically involved was borne out of frustration. It was a decision borne out of frustration with President Bush’s re-election in 2004, frustration with our open-ended engagement in Iraq, and frustration with the record budget deficits that have saddled my three little girls with unimaginable debt.  

But it was also a decision borne out of optimism for a better future. That is why I am here today: I believe and know that we can do better. My grandparents and parents raised me with the knowledge that I was growing up in a better America than the America of their youth. Like them, I want to leave our country better off for my children, and that is why I am running for Congress.

Right now, due to wasteful federal spending on the part of the Republican Party and my opponent, Mark Kirk, each of my three daughters is over $30,000 in debt. That is over $30,000 in debt before any of them have reached the age of 10, much less gone to college or owned a home. I can’t imagine anything more un-American than saddling our children with this kind of debt.

This debt didn’t appear overnight. In fact, it is the result of seven-plus years of conscious, wasteful spending on the part of the President and the national Republican Party- from tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans to hundreds of billions of dollars shipped overseas to Iraq.

My opponent, Mark Kirk, has been a part of this problem in Washington. From supporting tax cuts for billionaires and corporations who move offshore, to rubberstamping the Bush administration’s failed policies in Iraq, to giving away billions of dollars in tax breaks and incentives to big oil, he has shown where his priorities lie.

Over the next several months, I look forward to talking not only with voters in the 10th district, but also with you. I look forward to putting an end to the myth that Republicans own the mantle of fiscal responsibility. But most importantly, I look forward to being a part of a Congress that understands that we have no greater duty than leaving our nation better off for our children and grandchildren.

To learn more about my campaign, please visit my website at www.dansealsforcongress.com.

Cross-posted at Open Left and Daily Kos.