CO-Sen: Schaffer Embraces the Ghost of Jack Abramoff

It looks like Bob Schaffer just handed Democrat Mark Udall and the DSCC an explosive issue to clobber him with in the Colorado Senate race this year.  Reflecting on the issue of immigration, Schaffer told the Denver Post that he’s got a solution for the hot-button issue:

He pointed to the Northern Mariana Islands, a U.S. protectorate that imports tens of thousands of foreign textile workers, as a successful model for a guest-worker program that could be adapted nationally.  

“The concept of prequalifying foreign workers in their home country under private- sector management is a system that works very well in one place in America,” he said of the islands’ program. “I think members of Congress ought to be looking at that model and be considering it as a possible basis for a nationwide program.”

If the workplace conditions of Northern Marianas are Bob Schaffer’s ideal model for a foreign worker program in the United States, we should all be very, very afraid.  TPM Muckraker has a good backgrounder on the Northern Marianas (who retained the infamous Jack Abramoff as their chief lobbyist) here:

During the 1990s, Sen. Frank Murkowski (R-AK) and Rep. George Miller (D-CA) were frequent critics of the sweatshop conditions used in factories in the Marianas that made clothes with the “Made in the USA” label for companies like Tommy Hilfiger USA, Gap, Calvin Klein and Liz Claiborne. In 1992, the Department of Labor sued five garment factories owned by Willie Tan and eventually fined the Tan companies $9 million — the largest fine they had ever imposed.

American officials and human rights advocates testified before congress that workers, 91 percent of whom were immigrants from China, the Philippines, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, were working below the CMNI minimum wage ($3.05), often seven days a week and up to 12 hours a day, and living in shacks behind barbed wire and without plumbing. Many workers also paid $5,000 to $7,000 in “recruitment fees” to gain employment, often with money borrowed from loan sharks who took all of their wages until the fees were paid back.

Are those the kinds of conditions that Schaffer wants to replicate on a “nationwide” level?  How about the forced abortions and sex slavery that many of the Islands’ immigrant workers are subject to?

The political stupidity of Bob Schaffer is mind-boggling.  Beyond mind-boggling.

(Big hat-tip to ColoradoPols for the scoop.)

NJ-Sen: Unanue to the Rescue!

You should taste the taste we got!

With the stinging recruitment loss of Biotech millionaire John Crowley, it looks like the GOP is falling back on Plan B — disgraced Goya Foods frat boy Andy Unanue:

“I just filed the petitions,” Unanue spokesman Mark Duffy said this morning as he returned to State Republican Committee headquarters from the Division of Elections office.

While Unanue was unavailable to talk to the press or pose for pictures, Duffy said he had more good news.

“He’s in the state,” Duffy announced.

Even as he remained a man publicly defined as a hard-partying nightclub owner without a New Jersey address, the millionaire businessman’s absence on a family trip to Vail did not prove a stumbling block to winning county support these last few weeks since Anne Evans Estabrook left the Republican primary race.

Unanue will face off with Ron Paul supporter and college professor Murray Sabrin and crypto-fascist state Sen. Joe Pennacchio for the GOP nod.  Oh boy-a!

Tom Cole Deathwatch Thread, No. 3

From The Hill:

Some GOP insiders have bemoaned the NRCC’s recruiting shortcomings. One top GOP consultant said the effort has “been a disaster.”

“The approach to recruiting has been weak, and it’s driven by a staff that doesn’t know the districts they’re recruiting in,” the consultant said. “[Chairman Tom] Cole [Okla.] can’t do everything, and he’s been let down by those who serve him.”

PVI vs. Vote Index: Only the Meaty Votes

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

I thought I’d continue with the PVI vs. Vote Index project begun here and continued here and here. It seems like almost every permutation involving the different ratings methods (Progressive Punch, Progressive Punch Chips Are Down, ADA, and National Journal Composite) has been tried out now, so I wanted to try a new approach: focusing on particular important votes, presenting a matrix that shows who broke with the party on what, and throwing PVI into the mix. (If you’re like me, you constantly forget why you’re supposed to be angry at a particular representative, so it’s handy to have everyone’s black marks on one handy chart.)

I chose six votes to start with, three where Democratic discipline really seemed to break down (Iraq supplemental, FISA, and ENDA), and three where Republican discipline broke down (minimum wage, stem cells, and SCHIP veto override). “Iraq supplemental” and “FISA” are particularly difficult categories, because there have been many votes on each, and a lot of Dems have gone for more nuanced positions than can be encapsulated with one vote. For these categories, I chose the vote on each topic where Democratic discipline seemed to break down the most, and correspondingly, where the blogosphere engaged in the loudest and angriest freakout: HR 2206 Roll Call 425 on Iraq and S 1927 Roll Call 836 on FISA. (The final votes on these topics had much higher party unity.)

For each party, I have a table of how many times a representative voted against the party. Within each table, representatives are listed in order of PVI from highest to lowest. This doesn’t create as neat and tidy a relationship as we’ve been doing with the more thorough scoring approaches… but it shouldn’t take too much imagination to look at each table and form a qualitative judgment as to who’s fitting the district and who isn’t.

I’m also including representatives with no votes against the party but who are in districts in what we’ll call the danger zone (D+5 to R+5). These ones, maintaining discipline in the face of potentially hostile districts, are the ones we might think of as analogous to the ‘overperformers’ from previous diaries on this topic. (No one on the wrong side of the danger zone, i.e. Democrats in districts of R+6 or greater… has complete party unity.)

By way of analysis, note that the same underperforming cast of characters stands out here as in the more rigorously quantitative approaches to the PVI vs. Vote question: Lipinski, Marshall, Barrow, Artur Davis, Cooper, Costa. Likewise, the Republican overperformers (the ones theoretically vulnerable because of their wingnuttiness) also look about the same: Chabot, Walberg, Rogers (MI), Feeney, Roskam, Kline.

The good news is (and this was noted in previous diaries in this series): being in the majority is a real tonic for party discipline. Note how many more Republicans than Democrats broke with the party 3, 4, or 5 times. (Many of them are also in affluent suburban D+ districts and are feeling the heat… except for Todd Platts, who seems to have come out of nowhere with a new Club for Growth-related deathwish.) For the Democrats who broke the party line multiple times, they’re almost always members of the Blue Dogs and coming from rural southern or Midwestern districts (again, with the glaring exception of Lipinski).

Democrats

5 votes

Rep. District PVI Votes
Marshall GA-08 R+8 Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells, SCHIP

4 votes

Rep. District PVI Votes
Lipinski IL-03 D+10 Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells
L. Davis TN-04 R+3 Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells
McIntyre NC-07 R+3 Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells
Shuler NC-11 R+7 Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells
G. Taylor MS-04 R+16 Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells

3 votes

Rep. District PVI Votes
Barrow GA-12 D+2 Iraq, FISA, ENDA
C. Wilson OH-06 D+0 Iraq, FISA, Stem cells
Tanner TN-08 D+0 Iraq, FISA, ENDA
Rahall WV-03 D+0 Iraq, ENDA, Stem cells
Donnelly IN-02 R+4 Iraq, FISA, Stem cells
Gordon TN-06 R+4 Iraq, FISA, ENDA
Melancon LA-03 R+5 Iraq, FISA, ENDA
Cramer AL-05 R+6 Iraq, FISA, ENDA
C. Peterson MN-07 R+6 Iraq, FISA, Stem cells
Ellsworth IN-08 R+9 Iraq, FISA, Stem cells
Lampson TX-22 R+15 Iraq, FISA, ENDA
C. Edwards TX-17 R+18 Iraq, FISA, ENDA

2 votes

Rep. District PVI Votes
A. Davis AL-07 D+17 FISA, ENDA
Cooper TN-05 D+6 Iraq, FISA
Costa CA-20 D+5 Iraq, FISA
Berry AR-01 D+1 Iraq, ENDA
Boswell IA-03 D+1 Iraq, FISA
Snyder AR-02 D+0 Iraq, ENDA
Ross AR-04 D+0 Iraq, ENDA
Walz MN-01 R+1 Iraq, FISA
Cuellar TX-28 R+1 Iraq, FISA
Boyd FL-02 R+2 Iraq, FISA
Stupak MI-01 R+2 Iraq, Stem cells
Etheridge NC-02 R+3 Iraq, FISA
Altmire PA-04 R+3 Iraq, FISA
Mitchell AZ-05 R+4 Iraq, FISA
Rodriguez TX-23 R+4 Iraq, FISA
Bean IL-08 R+5 Iraq, FISA
Boren OK-02 R+5 Iraq, FISA
Salazar CO-03 R+6 Iraq, FISA
Space OH-18 R+6 Iraq, FISA
Mollohan WV-01 R+6 Iraq, Stem cells
Hill IN-09 R+7 Iraq, FISA
Chandler KY-06 R+7 Iraq, FISA
Carney PA-10 R+8 Iraq, FISA
Skelton MO-04 R+11 Iraq, ENDA
Herseth SD-AL R+11 Iraq, FISA
Pomeroy ND-AL R+13 Iraq, FISA
Matheson UT-02 R+17 Iraq, FISA

1 vote

Rep. District PVI Votes
Towns NY-10 D+41 ENDA
Clarke NY-11 D+40 ENDA
Velazquez NY-12 D+34 ENDA
Nadler NY-08 D+28 ENDA
Wasserman Schultz FL-20 D+18 Iraq
Emanuel IL-05 D+18 Iraq
Andrews NJ-01 D+14 Iraq
Weiner NY-09 D+14 ENDA
Baca CA-43 D+13 Iraq
Levin MI-12 D+13 Iraq
Dingell MI-15 D+13 Iraq
S. Davis CA-53 D+12 Iraq
Kildee MI-05 D+12 Iraq
Clyburn SC-06 D+11 Iraq
D. Scott GA-13 D+10 Iraq
B. Thompson MS-02 D+10 Iraq
Hoyer MD-05 D+9 Iraq
Berkley NV-01 D+9 Iraq
Butterfield NC-09 D+9 Iraq
Kaptur OH-09 D+9 Stem cells
Reyes TX-16 D+9 Iraq
M. Udall CO-02 D+8 Iraq
Visclosky IN-01 D+8 Iraq
Ruppersburger MD-02 D+8 Iraq
Holt NJ-12 D+8 ENDA
Schwartz PA-13 D+8 Iraq
Gonzalez TX-20 D+8 Iraq
G. Green TX-29 D+8 Iraq
Higgins NY-27 D+7 FISA
Dicks WA-06 D+6 Iraq
Costello IL-12 D+5 Stem cells
Kanjorski PA-11 D+5 Iraq
Murtha PA-12 D+5 Iraq
Michaud ME-02 D+4 ENDA
Oberstar MN-08 D+4 Stem cells
Sestak PA-07 D+4 Iraq
Cardoza CA-18 D+3 Iraq
Hinojosa TX-15 D+3 Iraq
R. Larsen WA-02 D+3 Iraq
Kind WI-03 D+3 Iraq
S. Bishop GA-02 D+2 Iraq
Baird WA-03 D+0 Iraq
Giffords AZ-08 R+1 Iraq
Ortiz TX-27 R+1 Iraq
Mahoney FL-16 R+2 Iraq
Gillibrand NY-20 R+3 Iraq
D. Moore KS-03 R+4 Iraq
Kagen WI-08 R+4 Iraq
Spratt SC-05 R+6 Iraq
Boyda KS-02 R+7 Iraq
Holden PA-17 R+7 Iraq
Boucher VA-09 R+7 Iraq

0 votes

Rep. District PVI
Foster IL-14 R+5
McNerney CA-11 R+3
Arcuri NY-24 R+1
J. Hall NY-19 R+1
DeFazio OR-04 D+0
Shea-Porter NH-01 D+0
Doggett TX-25 D+1
Hooley OR-05 D+1
Obey WI-07 D+2
B. Miller NC-13 D+2
Yarmuth KY-03 D+2
Perlmutter CO-07 D+2
P. Murphy PA-08 D+3
T. Bishop NY-01 D+3
Hodes NH-02 D+3
Klein FL-22 D+4
C. Murphy CT-05 D+4
Braley IA-01 D+5
Hare IL-17 D+5
Lo. Sanchez CA-47 D+5

Republicans

4 votes

Rep. District PVI Votes
Castle DE-AL D+6 ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Shays CT-04 D+5 ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Kirk IL-10 D+4 ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Gerlach PA-06 D+2 ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Dent PA-15 D+2 ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Reichert WA-08 D+2 ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Fossella NY-13 D+1 ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Ramstad MN-03 R+1 ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Pryce OH-15 R+1 ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Bono CA-45 R+3 ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Platts PA-19 R+12 ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP

3 votes

Rep. District PVI Votes
LoBiondo NJ-02 D+4 ENDA, Min. wage, SCHIP
H. Wilson NM-01 D+2 Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
B. Young FL-10 D+1 Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
McHugh NY-23 D+0 ENDA, Min. wage, SCHIP
T. Davis VA-11 R+1 ENDA, Stem cells, SCHIP
Upton MI-06 R+2 Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
LaTourette OH-14 R+2 Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
English PA-03 R+2 ENDA, Min. wage, SCHIP
C. Miller MI-10 R+4 ENDA, Min. wage, SCHIP
Regula OH-16 R+4 Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Biggert IL-13 R+5 ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells
Capito WV-02 R+5 Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Freylinghuysen NJ-11 R+6 ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells
Gilchrest MD-01 R+10 ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells
Emerson MO-08 R+11 Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Walden OR-02 R+11 ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells
D. Young AK-AL R+14 Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP

2 votes

Rep. District PVI Votes
Saxton NJ-03 D+3 ENDA, Min. wage
Walsh NY-25 D+3 Min. wage, SCHIP
P. King NY-03 D+1 Min. wage, SCHIP
Porter NV-03 D+1 ENDA, SCHIP
Latham IA-04 D+0 Min. wage, SCHIP
McCotter MI-11 R+1 ENDA, Min. wage
C. Smith NJ-04 R+1 Min. wage, SCHIP
Ferguson NJ-07 R+1 Min. wage, SCHIP
Tiberi OH-12 R+1 ENDA, SCHIP
Renzi AZ-01 R+2 Min. wage, SCHIP
T. Murphy PA-18 R+2 Min. wage, SCHIP
Turner OH-03 R+3 Min. wage, SCHIP
Dreier CA-26 R+4 ENDA, Stem cells
Buchanan FL-13 R+4 Min. wage, SCHIP
Ros-Lehtinen FL-18 R+4 ENDA, Min. wage
M. Diaz-Balart FL-25 R+4 ENDA, Min. wage
Brown-Waite FL-05 R+5 Min. wage, Stem cells
Kuhl NY-29 R+5 ENDA, Min. wage
Wolf VA-10 R+5 Min. wage, SCHIP
Petri WI-06 R+5 Min. wage, SCHIP
L. Diaz-Balart FL-21 R+6 ENDA, Min. wage
T. Johnson IL-15 R+6 FISA, Min. wage
Hobson OH-7 R+6 ENDA, SCHIP
Duncan TN-02 R+11 Iraq, Min. wage
W. Jones NC-03 R+15 FISA, Min. wage
Simpson ID-02 R+19 Min. wage, SCHIP

1 vote

Rep. District PVI Votes
Knollenberg MI-09 D+0 ENDA
Weller IL-11 R+1 Min. wage
P. Ryan WI-01 R+2 ENDA
Keller FL-08 R+3 Min. wage
Hayes NC-08 R+3 Min. wage
M. Rogers AL-03 R+3 Min. wage
Bilirakis FL-09 R+4 Min. wage
Bilbray CA-50 R+5 Stem cells
LaHood IL-18 R+5 Min. wage
Forbes VA-04 R+5 Min. wage
Calvert CA-44 R+6 Stem cells
Rohrabacher CA-46 R+6 Stem cells
Goode VA-05 R+6 Min. wage
McKeon CA-25 R+7 Stem cells
McCrery LA-04 R+7 ENDA
Hulshof MO-09 R+7 Min. wage
McMorris WA-05 R+7 SCHIP
Campbell CA-48 R+8 ENDA
Stearns FL-06 R+8 Min. wage
Shimkus IL-19 R+8 Min. wage
H. Rogers KY-05 R+8 Min. wage
Heller NV-02 R+8 Stem cells
Wamp TN-03 R+8 Min. wage
J. Lewis CA-41 R+9 Stem cells
Ehlers MI-03 R+9 Min. wage
Issa CA-49 R+10 Stem cells
Mack FL-14 R+10 Stem cells
Whitfield KY-01 R+10 Min. wage
Alexander LA-05 R+10 Min. wage
J. Peterson PA-05 R+10 Min. wage
Boozman AR-03 R+11 Min. wage
Rehberg MT-AL R+11 SCHIP
Goodlatte VA-06 R+11 Min. wage
Bonner AL-01 R+12 Min. wage
Flake AZ-06 R+12 ENDA
G. Davis KY-04 R+12 Min. wage
Poe TX-02 R+12 Min. wage
Everett AL-02 R+13 Min. wage
Schmidt OH-02 R+13 Min. wage
Granger TX-12 R+14 Stem cells
Paul TX-14 R+14 Iraq
Barton TX-06 R+15 Stem cells
Marchand TX-24 R+15 Min. wage
Aderholt AL-04 R+16 Min. wage
Crenshaw FL-04 R+16 Min. wage
L. Smith TX-21 R+16 Min. wage
Coble NC-06 R+17 Stem cells
J. Moran KS-01 R+20 Min. wage
Bachus AL-05 R+25 Min. wage

0 votes

Rep. District PVI
Chabot OH-01 R+1
Walberg MI-07 R+2
M. Rogers MI-08 R+2
Feeney FL-24 R+3
Roskam IL-06 R+3
Kline MN-02 R+3
Reynolds NY-26 R+3
Mica FL-07 R+4
Weldon FL-15 R+4
Manzullo IL-16 R+4
Camp MI-04 R+4
Garrett NJ-05 R+4
Gallegly CA-24 R+5
Putnam FL-12 R+5
Bachmann MN-06 R+5
Graves MO-06 R+5

This should be considered a work in progress, with improved versions likely to be published in the future, so please feel free to suggest 1) better ways of displaying this data (I intended to make the tables sortable, but SSP’s code doesn’t seem to allow that), and 2) what other 2007-08 votes are particularly important as litmus tests. There were a few others I was considering instead of ENDA, like the Employee Free Choice Act (not enough Dem defections) and the Peru trade agreement (not a clear liberal/conservative split… more of an internationalist/populist split in each party), so I’ll certainly consider adding additional categories.

UPDATE: Link to Google Docs for a copy of the spreadsheet here. I threw in Progressive Punch scores in case anyone wants to correlate votes on these big 6 against the broader scores.

PA-05: McCracken for Congress – Progress Report – Sen. Durbin in Clearfield!

IF IT’S TUESDAY, THIS MUST BE BELLEFONTE:

The headline says it all as it was a very busy and sometimes hectic week.  I started out the week Sunday and Monday in Harrisburg where I was attending the County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania spring conference.   I really wish I could have been in State College to see Senator Barack Obama’s historic visit to Penn State but, I had already scheduled to attend the CCAP conference several weeks ago.   I’ve heard from people who attended and they were all still buzzing late in the week from the rally.

I left Harrisburg Monday afternoon to attend the Lycoming County Democratic Dinner in Williamsport on Monday evening.   Lycoming County Chair Jessie Bloom put together a fantastic event that was so well attended they filled up 2 rooms with Democrats who are excited about 2008.  



Lycoming County is split between the 5th and the 10th congressional districts.  As I was working the rooms, I shook hands with one gentleman who apologized and said “sorry, you just wasted a handshake, I’m from the 10th district”.  I countered back to him, “No, it wasn’t wasted, if I met a Democrat who is going to be working to get Democrats elected in 2008 that was good enough for me”.  All the candidates in attendance got the chance to speak and Auditor General Jack Wagner was the keynote speaker for the evening.

Tuesday brought 2 events in Centre County with an afternoon forum for the 5th District Democratic candidates at the Foxdale Retirement Community in State College.  Art Goldschmidt moderated the event and the residents asked many important questions.  



Then it was on to Bellefonte for a candidate’s forum with the 3 Democratic candidates taking center stage from 6:30 to 7:30 with the Republicans getting their chance from 8:00 to 9:30.

Wednesday brought an early morning trip to Clarion for legislative breakfast sponsored by the Clarion Chamber of Commerce.   This event had 16 candidates, 5 for the PA House seat being vacated by Rep. Fred McIllhatten and 11 of the 12 candidates for the 5th District seat.   Wednesday evening had us back in Centre County for the League of Women Voters debate.  Again, the Democratic candidates went first from 7:00 to 8:00 with the Republican candidates following.  Is it wrong to think the Republican candidates had viewers tuning out in favor of American Idol both nights?

Also on Wednesday, we released the news that both the IBEW Local #5 and the Ironworkers Local #772 have endorsed my candidacy.   It is important to me that we get endorsements from organizations that represent the hard working people of the 5th Congressional District.

You can read the endorsement letters here!

Thursday we had the Jefferson County Democratic spring banquet in Reynoldsville followed by a candidate forum for the Democratic candidates at the IBEW building in Clearfield.

Friday brought an important visitor to Clearfield County as US Senator Richard Durbin, the Assistant Majority Leader (also known as the Majority Whip), stopped in Clearfield and DuBois to support the Obama for President campaign.  It really is an exciting time for Democrats in central Pennsylvania as we are getting real attention from the presidential campaigns for the first time in my lifetime.



The longest day of the week was Saturday.  I was up a 5:15 AM to drive to Warren for a Democratic breakfast at 9:00 AM.  I found my theme that communities in the 5th district share many similarities took a new twist on Saturday morning.  The Clearfield County Courthouse sets at the corner of Second and Market streets and, believe it or not, the building where the Warren County breakfast was held was on the corner of Second and Market streets.  I pointed this coincidence out and the crowd got a chuckle from my observation.  I shared the microphone with 3 of the candidates running for the 3rd congressional district along with fellow 5th district candidate Rick Vilello.  We also heard from Jeff Eggleston for the Obama campaign and Congressman Marion Berry for the Clinton campaign.

Then it was on to Clarion for a League of Women Voters debate at Clarion University at 2 PM.  Rick Vilello and I shared the stage with 7 of the 9 Republican candidates for a joint debate.  Rick and I did the Democratic party proud as we addressed the issues important to the hard working people of the district.  The event concluded with a brief verbal skirmish between 2 of the Republican candidates during the closing statements.  I was very pleased when the Clarion County Democratic Chairman and several people in the audience came up and congratulated both of the Democratic candidates for our performances.

Saturday ended in Ridgway with the Elk County Democratic Spring Banquet.  Kelly joined me in Ridgway to hear 2 keynote speakers, Congressman Marion Berry representing the Clinton campaign and Jay Paterno representing the Obama campaign.  And, I can’t forget to mention that Victor Ordonez represented the campaign in Mifflin County for their spring dinner on Saturday evening.  A big thank you to Victor for making the trip to Lewistown.  It would have been impossible to do the debate in Clarion and also make it to Lewistown.

It was a long day to end a long week but I feel our campaign made great progress over the last 7 days.  The only downside to this is the reality that campaigning in such a large district is taking a toll on the family life.  Kelly and I knew what we were getting into back in January but it is difficult now that we are in the middle of the campaign.  April 22nd is coming fast and it will be nice once the outcome is known.  Either we will be campaigning through November or life will settle back down.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate for Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

AL-05: New Poll Shows Democrat Griffith Ahead

A new poll conducted by the Capital Survey Research Center shows state Sen. Parker Griffith, an oncologist from Huntsville, with an early lead over the presumptive GOP nominee, advertising executive Wayner Parker (4/1, likely voters, no trendlines):

Parker Griffith (D): 48%

Wayne Parker (R): 32%

Undecided: 21%

(MoE: ±4%)

(Source: House Race Hotline)

On top of Griffith’s $115,000 fundraising haul in his first week of the race, this is encouraging news for Democrats as they seek to hold this open seat that Bush carried by 54-44 and 60-40 margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively.  

Wayne Parker twice tried to win this seat against incumbent Democrat Bud Cramer; he nearly won in 1994, but lost decisively in ’96.  With the GOP failing to attract a stronger challenger (such as potential turncoat Democratic state Sen. Tom Butler), it appears that Griffith is starting with a clear edge here.

SSP will try to obtain a copy of the polling memo and post it when we can.

IN-02: GOP Enthusiasm Reaches New Trough

The race to defeat frosh Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly is finally starting to heat up:

Barely a week earlier, an estimated 4,000 people packed Mishawaka High School’s east gymnasium to witness democracy in action when Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton visited.

On Saturday night a grand total of six people showed up to the school’s auditorium to see democracy in action as two 2nd District Republican candidates for U.S. Congress debated each other.

Even with the low turnout candidates Tony Zirkle and Joe Roush took the night seriously and easily chewed up the 90 minutes allotted for the debate. (Emphasis added)

Watch your back, Donnelly!

LA-06: NRCC Preparing to Cut Jenkins Loose?

A sign of the times?  According to a GOP operative quoted in the Wall Street Journal, the NRCC is promising support to LA-06 special election nominee Woody Jenkins only if he meets certain “financial benchmarks”:

A Republican aide said the NRCC will meet with Mr. Jenkins’s campaign this week to discuss strategy and to outline financial benchmarks that the campaign will have to meet to receive the campaign committee’s support. They are currently polling in the district as well. “We are aware of the challenges we face,” said a House Republican aide, noting that a Jenkins victory “is doable, but it’s difficult.”

Now, I find it pretty hard to believe that the NRCC would give up on an R+6.5 Southern open seat so easily, even with Jenkins’ shady ties to former KKK leader David Duke figuring prominently in just about every post-runoff news article on this race.    But if the GOP wants to game the expectations that winning this district — one that hasn’t elected a Democrat to Congress since the early 1970s — is an uphill fight for them, well, that’s their choice to make.  But with Democrat Don Cazayoux outraising Jenkins ($532K vs. $290K through March 16), talk like this is not exactly inspiring to the national donors that Jenkins needs to attract.

MS-01: Does Travis Childers Have a Shot?

This is Travis Childers, the Democrat running for the open seat left behind by Roger Wicker (R) when he was appointed to the Senate.

In his quest for the seat, Childers has fought through two elections — the November general primary and run-off — to get to where he is today.  Childers will face off with Southaven Mayor Greg Davis (R) in the April 22 special election to fill the seat.  The catch?  The losers of the primary run-off, Democratic state Rep. Steve Holland and former GOP Tupelo Mayor and TVA Chair Glenn McCullough (as well as two fringe-party candidates) will be on the ballot, although both have ceased campaigning for the job.  

The long list of candidates on the ballot, and their lack of party designation, means that there is a very real chance that this election will go to a run-off on May 13.  (Meaning that, to fill this seat, voters in MS-01 will have had to vote four times: the primary, the run-off, the special election, and the special run-off.)

So can Childers make a real race of this?  The traditional prognosticators — CQ, Cook (friend of SSP), et al — currently rate the seat as “Safe Republican”.  It’s hard to fault them for that — after all, this is an R+10 Southern seat that Bush won with 62% of the vote in 2004.  But I subscribe to a different view, and the Swing State Project currently puts this race at the more competitive rating of Likely Republican.

Over at DailyKos, RBH had a great diary on the dynamics of the race, which I encourage you to check out if you haven’t already.  Allow me to build upon his summary to give you a list of reasons why Childers has an outside chance of an upset here:

  1. The right profile.  Childers has served as Chancery Clerk in Prentiss County since he was first elected in 1991.  A self-described “Jamie Whitten Democrat” (after the longtime congressman who represented this district from 1941 to 1995), Childers calls himself a “pro-life, pro-business and pro-guns” candidate, but retains a strong streak of economic populism to tap into the eastern portion of the district’s New Deal/TVA heritage.

    At the age of sixteen, having just lost his father, Childers went to work full-time to help support his mother and younger sister, and put himself through college.  Childers earned his real estate license at the age of 19 and built his own business from the ground up.

    In his campaign ads, Childers has targeted the rising cost of living, crumbling state of the economy, and unfair trade deals as issues he wants to address in Congress.  On the campaign trail, Childers’ populism rings loud and clear:

    When one panelist asked about high gas prices, Childers told her he has no sympathy for Exxon Mobile but a lot for the working-class families struggling to pay their gas and heating bills. Several adults in the crowd murmured their approval.

    In the primary, Childers was the only candidate — Democrat or Republican — to favor withdrawal from Iraq:

    He was the only one of five candidates — three Republicans, two Democrats — at a campaign stop in Nesbit last week who said point-blank that U.S. troops don’t belong in Iraq. […]

    Childers said he favors coming up with a plan to withdraw troops over 12 to 18 months and leave the Iraqis to fight among themselves, as they have for thousands of years.

    He said he’s amazed more people on the campaign trail haven’t asked about a national debt of more than $9 trillion.

    “We’re spending our money, folks, in Iraq. We need to be spending our money in America.

    Childers is the only candidate in the special election who understands the struggles of working families, and this should be an advantage to him as he tries to capture votes in rural Northeast Mississippi.

  2. The enthusiasm gap.  In the April 1st runoff, 36,168 voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary, while 33,135 GOP ballots were counted — a net turnout advantage of 3000 votes for Democrats.  Some of this might be due to old Dixiecrat habits dying hard, and a small amount could possibly be attributed to the unintended consequence of Rush Limbaugh’s “operation chaos” — GOP voters who requested a Democratic ballot for Mississippi’s Presidential primary were not allowed to cast Republican ballots in the runoff, but it’s hard to say how much of a factor that was here.

  3. A little help from his friends.  The Democratic primary was an unusually cordial affair, as Childers and state Rep. Steve Holland considered themselves friends and did not let a competitive race come between them.  In fact, Holland is enthusiastically supporting Childers in the special election.  From the front page of Holland’s campaign website:

    I want you to know that Travis Childers is a dear friend of mine. I support him 1,000,000 %. April 22 is the next election that decides who will fulfill the remaining term until the November Election. I want you to help me put Travis in Washington on April 22nd.and keep him in office through the November election.

    If the Democratic family is in strong shape, the same can’t be said for the GOP here.  Davis mercilessly savaged McCullough’s record as TVA chair in his campaign ads on his way to a narrow primary win, and not surprisingly, McCullough’s campaign issued this non-endorsement endorsement:

    He also urged fellow Republicans to “unite behind all three of our nominees in North Mississippi – Senator Cochran, Senator Wicker and Mayor Davis. We have come too far as a state to turn back now.”

    But McCullough spokesman Brad Davis said the statement was “absolutely not” a personal endorsement of the runoff winner.

    When asked if it was a show of support for the party and not the person, Brad Davis said, “That’s a good way to put it.”


  4. Regional rivalry.  Davis won the GOP primary on the strength of his base in DeSoto County, a suburb of Memphis in the Northwestern portion of the district, while losing the vast majority of the rest of the district to McCullough.  On the one hand, Davis has a powerful base — DeSoto’s population is 150,000 and is only growing stronger.  However, there is a palpable sense of concern in the rest of the district that the old population anchor of Tupelo, once considered the power center of this district, and other small cities and rural counties could be left with a “representation deficit” with the suburban-minded Davis in Congress.  From the Memphis Commercial Appeal:

    “This victory was a siren in the night to the eastern half of the district that Tupelo is not the capital of the First District anymore,” said Marty Wiseman, director of Mississippi State University’s John C. Stennis Institute of Government. “DeSoto County can no longer be shuttled off to the corner of the room. This runoff election and Davis’ win demolished that image.”

    Might this be of concern to the citizens of Tupelo and other areas of MS-01?  If so, Childers, with his Northeast base, is in a position to capitalize on the rift.

Make no mistake — this seat is an uphill climb for Childers, but it by no means can be written off completely.  With his support in county courthouse circles, his economic populism, and a regional rift to play to his advantage, Childers can make this seemingly-sleepy special election a race to watch.