Swing State Project

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of democratic House candidate long before filings close.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Lots of House races now have Democratic candidates that have bobbed up in the last few weeks:

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-02 – R+19,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

UT-03 – R+22,

But three races go to the uncontested in 2008 list:

AL-06 – R+25,

CA-19 – R+10, (our candidate withdrew)

CA-22 – R+16,

So 407 races filled! This of course includes 234 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 173 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 173

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 2

Districts with rumoured candidates – 9

Districts without any candidates – 6

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 11

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-02 – R+13,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

ID-02 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-04 – R+7,

LA-06 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-08 – R+11,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-01 – R+10,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-05 – R+12,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

UT-01 – R+26,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

FL-06 – R+8,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

LA-07 – R+7,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

VA-01 – R+9,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

LA-05 – R+10,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-10 – R+4,

OK-01 – R+13,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

AL-06 – R+25,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

KY-05 – R+8

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennesee, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Florida, New Jersey, New York, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin. Thats 35 states with a full slate, and 6 states with one race to fill!  That is more than 80% of the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 7 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

There are also 5 states where filing has closed where we do not have a full slate: Arkansas, Alabama, California, Kentucky and of course Texas. Lets hope the rest fill out.

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! The other 2, TX-11 and AL-06, will again go uncontested by Team Blue in 2008.

With 11 uncontested Republicans we will not reach our great 2006 effort of 425 races filled but we will do really well nonetheless.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

AK-AL:

     Don Young (R-inc): ~$164K raised; <$948K CoH ($142K spent on legal bills)

     Gabrielle LeDoux (R): $150K CoH

     Diane Benson (D): $48K raised; $45K CoH

     Ethan Berkowitz (D): “significantly more” than $124K raised

AK-Sen:

     Ted Stevens (R-inc): $540K raised; $1.3M CoH

PA-10:

     Chris Hackett (R): $119K raised + $340K personal loan; $175K CoH

VA-10:

     Judy Feder (D): $310K raised; $710K CoH

AL-05:

     Parker Griffith (D): $115K raised (in one week)

AZ-03:

     Bob Lord (D): $220K raised; $630K CoH

1Q Fundraising Results Thread | Son of… | Revenge of… | Raiders of the…

Looks like New Jersey Dems have just dodged a bullet:

Despite being poised to enter the Republican Senate primary race for the second time in two weeks, Princeton biotech executive John Crowley once again withdrew his name from consideration today.

“John was deeply impressed with the outpouring of support for his potential candidacy for the US Senate. Many people both locally here in New Jersey and nationally had been encouraging him to run over the past week, but given his tremendous level of responsibility to his family, his company and to the US Navy, he’s decided not to enter the US Senate race this year,” said Crowley’s friend and advisor, Bill Spadea. “I know there was a lot of legitimate anticipation that John would enter this race we’ve been upfront with the many obligations he has, and his decision had to come down to his family.”

Crowley had a compelling personal story, and a huge net worth that could have been put to use to fund his campaign.  But alas, the GOP really can’t catch a break this cycle.

Dry those tears, John Ensign.  Disgraced Goya Foods frat boy Andy Unanue is apparently reconsidering his decision to drop out of the race now the Crowley has pulled the plug on his bid.

Could it be that among the Senate races this year, that New Jersey would be more likely to flip than Louisiana?

With Crowley in, Sen. Lautenburg’s lackluster ratings come home to roost.  He could have a tough time agasinst a strong bio candidate.

Some considerations for this race:

1.  How will the Democratic priamry impact the fall election?  The worst result for Democrats is a realtively narrow (<15%) win for Lautenburg.

I can see quite a few crossovers to Crowley.  

2.  Would Rob Andrews be a stronger candidate?

From my distant view,  I would think so.  Now I know that Andrews is not as progressive, but he’s younger and would be better suited to take on Crowley, especially if Crowley is pushed to the right.  But he has to overcome the Democratic establishment and a 30+ deifict to win the primary.

3.  Where does Crowley stand on the issues?  Is he going to run as a social moderate, but fiscal conservative?  

4.  Much will depend on McCain’s strength in NJ.  If he carries the state or comes close, Crowley wins.  He is McCain’s candidate and fit his “Service to America” theme.

In short, if this wasn’t supposed to be a Democratic year, I’d rate this Lean Republican.  So I think it’s a tossup.

Continuing through the alphabet:

South Carolina has 6 representatives: 4 Republicans and 2 Democrats

Filing deadline was March 31, primary is June 10

South Dakota has 1 representative: A Democrat

Filing deadline was March 25, primary is June 3

Tennessee has 9 representatives: 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans

Filing deadline was April 3, primary is August 7

District: SC-01

Location Almost all of coastal SC, bordering NC and the Atlantic, including Charleston

Representative Henry Brown (R)

First elected 2000

2006 margin 60-38

2004 margin 88-12 (vs. a Green)

Bush margin 2004 61=39

Notes on opponents little money

Current opponents A primary, then either

Linda Ketner or Ben Frasier.  No fundraising info on either Democrat.  Davis has about $1 million COH

Demographics 17th most veterans (17.2%), 78th most Blacks (20.9%)

Assessment

District: SC-02

Location Southern SC, stretching north to the middle of the state, bordering GA and the Atlantic, including Columbia

Representative Joe Wilson (R)

First elected 2001

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin 65-33

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Notes on opponents Michael Ellisor ran both times and raised little

Current opponents A primary then either Blaine Lotz or Rob Miller . No funding info on either Democrat.  Wilson has about $225K COH

Demographics 70th most veterans (15.1%), 60th most Blacks (26.2%)

Assessment Long shot

District: SC-03

Location Northwestern SC, bordering GA

Representative Gresham Barrett (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 66-34

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Jane Dyer

Demographics 49th most rural (49.7%), 80th most Blacks (20.5%), 50th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: SC-04

Location Northern SC, bordering NC

Representative Bob Inglis (R)

First elected 2004

2006 margin 64-32

2004 margin 70-29

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Ted Christian ; Paul Corden ; or Bryan McCanless. No fundraising info on the Democrats.  Inglis has about $300K COH

Demographics 42nd most Republican

Assessment  Long shot

District: SC-05

Location Northeastern SC, bordering NC

Representative John Spratt (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Notes on opponents In 2006, Ralph Norman raised $1.4 million to Spratt’s $2.7 million; in 2004, Albert Spencer raised little

Current opponents Albert Spencer (no fundraising info)

Demographics 35h most rural (53.3%), 80th fewest Latinos (1.8%)

Assessment Safe

District: SC-06

Location Southeastern quarter of SC, bordering the Atlantic, excluding Charleston

Representative James Clyburn (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 64-34

2004 margin 67-31

Bush margin 2004 39-61

Notes on opponents Gary McLeod ran twice and raised little

Current opponents Nancy Harrelson

Demographics 40th most rural (52.0%), 17th lowest income (median = $29K) 66th fewest Whites (40.3%), 14th most Blacks (56.7%), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)

Assessment safe

District: SD-AL

Location You know, South Dakota.

Representative Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D)

First elected  2004 (in a special election)

2006 margin 69-29

2004 margin 53-46

Bush margin 2004 60-38

Notes on opponents In 2004, Larry Diedrich raised $2.5 million to Sandlin’s $4 million; the 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents Chris Lien has raised about $119K and has almost all of it as COH; Sandlin has $650K COH

Demographics 58th most rural (48.1%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 51st fewest Latinos (1.4%), 66th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (mostly 8.1% Native Americans), 99th most Republican

Assessment probably safe

District: TN-01

Location Eastern TN, bordering VA and NC

Representative David Davis (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 61-37

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 68-31

Notes on opponents Rick Trent raised only $77K to fight for this open seat

Current opponents Rob Russell , Michael Donihe. No funding info on either Democrat.  Davis has about $1 million COH

Demographics 71st most rural (44.6%), 38th lowest income (median = $31K), 16th most White (95%), 83rd fewest Blacks (2.1%), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%), 50th most Republican

Assessment  Long shot

District: TN-02

Location Eastern TN, including Knoxville.  Borders NC

Representative John Duncan (R)

First elected  1988

2006 margin 78-22

2004 margin 79-19

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Notes on opponents John Greene ran both times, and raised little

Current opponents David Hancock, Robert Scott

Demographics 73rd most White (90.1%), 41st fewest Latinos (1.3%), 86th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TN-03

Location Shaped sort of like a barbell, running from the GA border in the south, then narrowing and running NE to the VA and KY borders, where it widens again

Representative Zach Wamp (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Notes on opponents neither raised much

Current opponents Doug Vandagriff, no funding info.  Wamp has about $900K COH

Demographics 67th fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: TN-04

Location Shaped like a lopsided U, starting south of Nashville in the middle of the state, south to the AL border, east to the GA border, then north to the KY border

Representative Lincoln Davis (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 55-44

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents  In 2004, Janice Bowling raised $300K to Davis’ $1.1 million; the 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents Monty Langford, Don Strong. No funding info on the Repubs; Davis has about $240K COH

Demographics 4th most rural (67.9%), 46th lowest income (median = $32K), 48th most Whites (92.6%), 68th fewest Latinos (1.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: TN-05

Location Nashville and suburbs

Representative Jim Cooper (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 69-28

2004 margin 69-31

Bush margin 2004 48-52

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Gerard Donovan, Vijay Kumar.  Donovan has $3K COH, no info on Kumar, Cooper raised about $200K and has about $100K COH

Demographics 68th most Blacks (23.4%)

Assessment safe

District: TN-06

Location Central part of northern TN bordering KY

Representative Bart Gordon (D)

First elected  1984

2006 margin 67-31

2004 margin 64-34

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents No Republicans

Demographics 63rd most rural (46.8%)

Assessment Free ride

District: TN-07

Location Another strange shaped district.  Most of it is in southwestern TN, bordering MS and AL, but it stretches north and east to the suburbs of Nashville, then north to the KY border

Representative Marsha Blackburn (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 66-32

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 66-33

Notes on opponents Bill Morrison raised less than $100K

Current opponents A primary, and then either Randy Morris or James Tomasik.  No info on either Democrat…Blackburn has about $1 million COH

Demographics 95th most rural (39.0%), 74th most Republican

Assessment long shot

District: TN-08

Location Northwestern TN, bordering AR, MO and KY

Representative John Tanner (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 74-26

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents  James Hart, who lost badly in 2004

Demographics 36th most rural (53.0%), 64th lowest income (median = $33K), 38th most Blacks (22.3%), 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: TN-09

Location Memphis and suburbs, bordering AR and MS

Representative Steve Cohen (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 60-22-18 (22 for an Independent)

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 30-70

Notes on opponents Mark White raised $227K to Cohen’s $619K

Current opponents  A big primary battle, but no Republicans

Demographics 76th lowest income (median = $34K), 56th fewest Whites (34.9%), 10th most Blacks (59.5%), 60th most Democratic

Assessment  Safe for a Democrat

RESULTS: Louisiana SoS | NoLA.com

11:23PM: What an ideal match-up this is.  Democrats have an affable candidate whose socially conservative credentials suit his district well, while the Republicans are stuck with this fool:

A Jenkins-Cazayoux face-off would be a tough fight.

Cazayoux has raised more money than Jenkins and does not carry the political baggage, but Jenkins is a well-known personage in Louisiana and served 28 years in the state House. Jenkins narrowly lost a 1996 Senate race against Democrat Mary Landrieu.

In 2002, the Federal Elections Commission fined Jenkins for illegally concealing his purchase of a phone bank tied to former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke. In the 1980s, Jenkins was aligned with Oliver North, a figure in the Iran-Contra scandal, through a charity Jenkins ran called the Friends of the Americas, which sent medical supplies to Central America.

With press like that, it’s hard not to feel good about this one, isn’t it?

11:16PM: 511 of 512 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux: 56.79% (19,756); Jackson: 43.21% (15,034).

Jenkins: 61.96% (15,162); Calongne: 38.04% (9,308).

11:07PM: 488 of 512 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux still has a 58%-42% lead.  Let’s tally up the ballots so far: 32,980 Dem and 23,596 GOP votes.  Pretty nice.

10:55PM: Haw haw!  Jackson now has 13,401 votes to Jenkins’ 12,845.  The NRCC has some work to do here, methinks.

10:52PM: 447 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux has a 58%-42% lead over Jackson.  Here’s a fun fact: the loser of tonight’s Democratic primary, Michael Jackson, has nearly as many votes as the winner of tonight’s Republican primary, Woody Jenkins.  (12,822 to 12,672 so far)

10:38PM: 424 of 512 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux is sitting pretty with a 60%-40% lead.  28,619 Democratic and 20,534 Republican ballots have been counted so far.  Lookin’ good.

10:32PM: 365 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux’s lead has tightened to 64%-36%.  With the outstanding precincts being from the East Baton Rouge Parish, expect this margin to tighten up a bit, but it won’t be enough to make too huge of dent.

10:25PM: Man, it amazes me to say this, but I can’t believe that the Louisiana GOP fielded this crop of sadsack losers to defend a vulnerable open seat like this one.

10:14PM: 309 precincts reporting.  Total votes so far: 20,343 Democratic and 16,403 Republican ballots.

10:09PM: 258 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux’s 70%-30% lead is holding steady, while Jenkins is up 60%-40% over on the GOP side of the fence.  17673 Democratic and 13577 GOP votes have been counted so far.

9:58PM: 175 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux has a commanding 70%-30% lead over Jackson, and Jenkins is holding steady on the GOP side.  So far, 12654 Democratic and 9549 Republican ballots have been counted.

9:51PM: 111 of 512 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux is up 71%-29% over Jackson, while Jenkins is leading 61%-39% in the GOP primary.

9:45PM: 70 of 512 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux has a 68%-32% lead over Jackson, with most of Baton Rouge still counting ballots.  Let’s look at turnout: So far, 6306 Democratic votes and 3696 Republican votes have been counted.  Sure, some of this could be attributed to Dixiecrat overhang, but I’ll take it.

9:37PM: 22 of 512 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux has a 64%-36% lead, while Jenkins leans Calongne by roughly the same margin.  Democrats are also opening up a significant turnout gap here.

9:26PM: With 2 of 512 precincts reporting, Cazayoux has a 73%-27% lead over Jackson.  Jenkins is at 63% on the GOP side.  Turnout is roughly even so far.

Polls are now closed in the run-off elections to decide the Dem and GOP nominees in the special election to replace retiring Rep. Richard Baker (R).  We’ll be tracking the returns as they come in.

State Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) has raised and spent more money than his primary opponent, state Rep. Michael Jackson, but Jackson’s base is in the more populous Baton Rouge while Cazayoux hails from the more rural Pointe Coupee Parish.  Still, Cazayoux has to be considered the favorite tonight for the Democratic nomination.

On the GOP side, both candidates are decidedly second tier (and that’s being generous): Christian activist and community publisher Woody Jenkins (famous for, uh, losing elections), and lobbyist Linda Calongne.

As Jeremiah notes in the comments below, turnout will be worth watching tonight.

It appears that the Alabama State Democratic Party did a great job of recruiting and landed a worthy challenger to Jo Bonner (R:AL-01) on the last possible day for qualifying, Thomas E. Fuller of Chatom. Although I have not spoken to anyone in authority or to Mr. Fuller himself, his name does appear on the party’s “current candidates” list, and I am hopeful that we now have a shot at this seat.

Bonner has now served (or dis-served) three terms in this seat, and has proven himself one of George W. Bush’s most dependable allies in the war on human services and individual rights. As I said, I do not know the challenger but I find it hard to imagine a Democrat who would not be a huge improvement on Mr. Bonner. I look forward to working for Mr. Fuller’s election.

CA-04:

     Tom McClintock (R): $300K raised (March only), $159K CoH

NC-Sen:

     Kay Hagan (D): >$800K raised, >$1M CoH

LA-Sen:

     Mary Landrieu (D): $1M raised, ~$4.5M CoH

     John N. Kennedy (R): $1.4M raised

GA-Sen:

     Jim Martin (D): $350K raised (since March 19)

NJ-07:

     Linda Stender (D): $430K raised, $840K CoH

     Kate Whitman (R): $230K raised

IL-10:

     Mark Kirk (R): $715K raised, $2.25M CoH (Source: House Race Hotline)

OR-05:

     Kevin Mannix (R): $110K raised (since March 5)

WA-08:

     Darcy Burner (D): >$400K raised (Update: I’ve been told by the campaign that this figure is “not accurate”.  We’ll bring you the real figure once we hear it.)

KY-Sen:

     Greg Fischer (D): $500K raised + $510K personal donation (Source: Media release)

Previous diaries:

1Q Fundraising Results Thread | Son of… | Revenge of…

• NJ-02: Democrats have finally bagged a challenger to take on entrenched GOP Rep. Frank LoBiondo: Cape May City Councilor and businessman David Kurkowski.  Local Dems cited Kurkowski’s ability to fundraise in their endorsement of his candidacy.  

  While dislodging LoBiondo would be a tough task, we should be able to count on Kurkowski to hold the incumbent’s feet to the fire in this D+4 district.  Kurkowski has pledged to wage a “vigorous campaign” that will tie LoBiondo to George Bush and his support for the war in Iraq.  If we’re lucky, an aggressive campaign by Kurkowski could help split Republican resources in a state where the GOP will already be defending two open seats, and quite possibly the seat of ultra-conservative Rep. Scott Garrett in NJ-05. (H/T: Blue Jersey)

• MS-01: GOP primary run-off loser and former Tupelo Mayor Glenn McCullough issued a non-endorsement endorsement of the Republican nominee, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis:
  

  He also urged fellow Republicans to “unite behind all three of our nominees in North Mississippi – Senator Cochran, Senator Wicker and Mayor Davis. We have come too far as a state to turn back now.”

  But McCullough spokesman Brad Davis said the statement was “absolutely not” a personal endorsement of the runoff winner.

  When asked if it was a show of support for the party and not the person, Brad Davis said, “That’s a good way to put it.”

  Davis will face off with Democrat Travis Childers in an April 22nd special election.  If no candidate receives 50% of the vote, there will be a May 13th runoff.  (Meaning that, to fill the open seat of Roger Wicker, voters in MS-01 might be going to the polls four times to determine the winner.)  Regional rivalry may play a role here — Davis is from the fast-growing DeSoto County, a suburban area near Memphis, while Childers hails from the more rural Prentiss County.  If Childers can consolidate the non-DeSoto vote and keep Democratic enthusiasm high, this race could be a surprise worth watching.

• LA-06: Democrat Don Cazayoux just picked up another endorsement in the special election to replace retiring GOP Rep. Richard Baker — this time from the National Rifle Association (from the House Race Hotline):
  

  The NRA on 4/3 endorsed Cazayoux. The NRA gave Cazayoux an “A” and urged all members, gun owners and sportsmen to vote for Cazayoux. Cazayoux: “I’m proud to have the endorsement of NRA and the million of gun owners and sportsmen they represent across the country and here in Louisiana. We’ve passed important legislation in Louisiana over the last few years to protect the rights of gun owners, and I will continue that work in Congress to ensure our 2nd amendment rights are protected”.

  Runoff: 4/5; Special election: 5/3.

• NJ-Sen: Full results from a poll conducted by Joel Benenson for the DSCC (4/1-2, likely Democratic primary voters):
  

  Frank Lautenberg (D-inc): 52%
  
  Rob Andrews (D): 21%

  Juan Melli offers some more insights over at Blue Jersey.

• NY-26: Too much of a good thing?  Two wealthy candidates vying for the seat of retiring GOP Rep. Tom Reynolds are pledging to spend $1 million each on their campaigns.

Continuing from yesterday’s diary here , I’m going to try to meet some of the requests

People were interested in the various measures, and how they related.  Here is what’s known as a scatterplot matrix of the various measures:

Each little panel is a scatterplot, consisting of the variable listed in the row, and the column.  All are highly correlated, all show that Republicans are lousy.  But they are different in interesting ways:  The PP Chips are down scale shows a lot of variation within the Democratic part, and little within the Republican.  Let’s take a closer look:

that’s a boxplot of the chips are down scores, by party, and my guess was right: There’s a lot of spread among the Democrats.  Fortunately, there are no outliers at the top – that means that a lot of Democrats get 100 on this measure.  But unfortunately, quite a few get fairly low scores: A quarter or so get under about 70, and more than 10 get under 50. (Note, though, that the lowest Democratic score is about where the highest Republican score is).

So, that PPCAD might be a good measure to use.  Let’s see how it relates to Cook PVI, among Democrats:

Again, there’s a ceiling effect: You can’t have a PPCAD score over 100.  But, given that, I’ve identified some of the best and worst.

Other people were interested in Republicans who were too conservative for their districts.  Here, we want a measure that shows good spread among the Republicans.  Two stand out: ADA rating and NJ rating.  Since we’ve used NJ rating before, let’s do it again.  Among Republicans, region made very little difference, so using just PVI is okay.  

Here are the 17 Republicans who are 15 or more points more conservative than the model predicts

Here are the ones who are more than 12.5 points too conservative



   District Actual.PVI          Rep. NJ.Comp.2007

10      AZ02    -9.3076    R (Franks)          6.7

11      AZ03    -6.5867   R (Shadegg)          6.7

44      CA24    -5.3747  R (Gallegly)         14.0

77      CO04    -8.8633  R (Musgrave)         11.0

93      FL07    -4.8761      R (Mica)          8.3

98      FL12    -6.0349    R (Putnam)         12.3

110     FL24    -3.8316    R (Feeney)         12.0

161     IA05    -8.9516      R (King)          8.8

215     MN02    -3.3538     R (Kline)          9.3

219     MN06    -5.6477  R (Bachmann)         10.8

227     MO02    -9.4356      R (Akin)         10.0

248     NJ05    -5.0601   R (Garrett)         14.7

303     OH01    -1.2364    R (Chabot)         17.5

310     OH08   -13.0170   R (Boehner)          6.7

353     SC02    -9.4804    R (Wilson)          9.3

365     TN07   -12.3217 R (Blackburn)          8.0

This is fun!  I get to do the analysis, and didn’t have to enter the data