Swing State Project

We’ve all seen some pretty crazy turns of events this cycle, but this rumor from The Capitol seems like a bridge too far:

Speculation in Albany has grown that Rep. John McHugh (R-Watertown) will leave his congressional seat this year and instead challenge State Sen. Darrel Aubertine (D-Watertown).

Bipartisan sources have confirmed that the eight term congressman’s name is rising to the top of the list to challenge Aubertine, who won the Senate seat in a special election last month. McHugh held this Senate seat for eight years before going to Congress in 1992. […]

McHugh’s campaign spokesman said his boss was planning to seek another term this year and was unsure where speculation about a State Senate race would have come from. He said McHugh has not given indication of any worry over the redistricting process.

“Having served in the New York State Senate, he has the utmost respect for that body,” McHugh spokesman John Sweeney said. “He has the fullest intention of running for re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives again.”

John McHugh?  The same guy who is making a bid to be the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee?  Even if McHugh is tired of the commute to D.C. only to toil in the minority, why on earth would he want to give up his seat only to toil in the state Senate?  Democrats are on pace to pick up the chamber this November, and could quite likely still flip control even if McHugh were to pick off this seat.

Is the NY GOP that desperate?  What next?  Are they going to recruit Al D’Amato to run for Lt. Governor?

(H/T: The Albany Project)

DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer and DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen briefed reporters in Washington today about the state of 2008’s downballot races.  Their commentary was nothing especially groundbreaking for anyone who reads the Swing State Project, but Schumer did reveal a “target ranking” that should be of interest.  MSNBC’s First Read has the scoop:

Schumer, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said the DSCC is challenging in 17 of 23 GOP-held seats, including eight he believes Democrats have a solid chance in and nine others where he thinks they can be competitive. […]

Here’s the picture for the DSCC provided by Schumer:

Top targets: VA, NH, NM, CO, AK. (Schumer says they are ahead here.)

Second tier: OR, MN, ME. (These are blue states; Democrats are not ahead, but are competitive.)

Red-state seats in striking range: KY, NC, MS.

Good candidates with an outside chance: NE, KS, OK, GA, ID, TX. (Schumer says of Texas that he likes Noriega as a candidate and that incumbent Sen. John Cornyn is polling surprisingly low.)

Potentially, that’s a very wide net to play with.  Only the two Wyoming seats, Thad Cochran, Jeff Sessions, Lindsey Graham and Lamar Alexander are definitely off the table in the DSCC’s eyes.

IL-10:

     Dan Seals (D): $613K raised; $750K CoH

IL-14 (2/18-3/31; post-special):

     Bill Foster (D-inc): $724K raised; $263K CoH

     Jim Oberweis (R): $493K raised; $133K CoH

PA-11 (1/1-4/2):

     Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): $442K raised; $1.84M CoH

CT-05:

     Tony Nania (R): ~$30K-$40K raised

AZ-05:

     David Schweikert (R): $175K raised; >$500K CoH

FL-24:

     Suzanne Kosmas (D): $300K raised; $550K CoH

PA-07 (1/1-4/2):

     Craig Williams (R): $135K raised; $133K CoH

MN-02:

     John Kline (R-inc): $194K raised; $510K CoH

1Q Fundraising Results Thread | Son of… | Revenge of… | Raiders of the… | Alien vs. Predator vs…

(Cross-Posted at Senate Guru)

All of us here are optimistic about our prospects in a Democratic year, yet we have repeatedly voiced concern about the precarious nature of some of this year's down-ballot races.  In a Democratic year, why are Oregon and Maine such long-shots?  Why is the picture so unclear in Colorado?  And, more importantly, what can be done to fight the prospect of more Republican victories down-ballot?  Well, I've got an idea, and I know that a handful of others in the blogosphere agree.  I hope it echoes across the Internet and reaches the ears of the top campaign strategists for both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton (I'm hoping for Obama as the nominee)– pick Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer as the VP candidate, and the prospects of Democratic victories brighten all across the country.  Whenever I mention Schweitzer's name, people inevitably respond, “But Montana only has three electoral votes!”  By focusing on electoral math alone, they miss the point; if all we think about is electoral math, we are doomed to a future of precarious, one-vote majorities– nowhere near strong enough to pass progressive legislation and undo the damage of the Bush administration, which will take years.

With that in mind, I say the national ticket needs not one, but two galvanizers who can make campaign stops that whip up the crowds and help the down-ballot candidates.  On that count, Brian Schweitzer is our party's secret weapon.  He is a fantastic orator– second only to Obama himself in the party– and has a proven ability to resonate with Republican and independent voters. He can definitely help us pick up some Rocky Mountain states– with him on the ticket, Colorado is ours, and the coattails of an Obama/Schweitzer ticket would undoubtedly pull Mark Udall over the finish line– and we could pick off Nevada and New Mexico as well.  Oregon would become more solidly blue (improving the chances of Merkley or Novick,) as would Washington State (solidifying Gov. Gregoire's re-election chances).  Furthermore, while I doubt we would win Arizona, we would at least force John McCain to fight us on his home turf, which would cost him time and resources, and give the national GOP a headache (ahh, schadenfreude!)  

“But wait!” you say, “What about those rust-belt states that we need to win?  Hell, what about New Hampshire and Maine?”  To which I say, the aforementioned independent and Republican voters to whom Schweitzer has appealed have been rural and/or working-class citizens who don't want their jobs to be outsourced, are worried about the economy in the wake of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, and disapprove of the way the war is going, but who want to keep their hunting rifles.  You think there aren't voters like that in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania?  Of course there are!  Those are the very voters who swing those states, and Schweitzer is exactly the candidate to persuade them to vote Democratic!  

As for New Hampshire and Maine, Schweitzer's fiercely independent, non-dogmatic persona will resonate quite well with the numerous independent voters who might otherwise consider McCain.  The libertarian streak that runs through the Mountain West is not all that different from good old-fashioned Yankee independence.  Furthermore, Schweitzer took a bold early stand against the Real ID act.  Make some campaign stops with Tom Allen and use that issue as the centerpiece and . . . who knows?  We might just be able to unseat Susan Collins.

For those who don't know much about Schweitzer and might worry that he's some sort of DINO, relax– he is pro-choice, pro-civil union, and VERY pro-environment.  In fact, he has successfully re-framed the environment issue as “conservationism,” not “environmentalism,” and it has worked– people who hunt, fish, and participate in other outdoor activities want to preserve the natural environment in which to do so. Under Schweitzer's stewardship, Montana has been at the forefront of wind energy.

So, if you agree with me on this, I exhort you to spread the word, write blog posts, and even e-mail the Clinton and Obama campaigns.  I figure that, with a concerted effort, we can at least familiarize more people with his name.  Hey, it can't hurt, right?

Here in Kentucky’s First Congressional District, we call our Congressman Exxon Eddie. It is a fitting moniker. Not only because Eddie owns a lot of Exxon and Chevron stock that are making him richer on the backs of the American consumer, but because Exxon Eddie uses his votes to be a shill for the Big Oil Industry. Lets look at some of these votes.

In 2001, we had his vote # 2001-311 on HR 4. Here is a summary:

Amendment to maintain the current prohibition on oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge by striking language opening the reserve up to development.

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…

Yes, Exxon Eddie voted for the raping of the pristine Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge. Despite the fact that many people believe that the oil in ANWR will provide little relief at the pump, and have little long-term affect of the problem of Energy Dependence. It is all about profit, not finding solutions for everyday Americans and Kentuckians.

Moving on, in Aug., 2001 Exxon Eddie voted against CAFE standards in HR 4, vote 2001-317:

Require a combined corporate average fuel efficiency [CAFE] standard for passenger automobiles and light trucks, including sport utility vehicles, of 26 mpg in 2005 and of 27.5 mpg in 2007. It also would offer incentives for alternative fuel vehicles.

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…

Then in Nov. 2003, you had his vote on HR 6, number 2003-630 which was a rubber-stamp of the Bush-Cheney Energy Bill of Corporate Welfare to the Oil and Energy Companies:

Energy Omnibus bill: Vote to adopt the conference report on the bill that would put into practice a comprehensive national policy for energy conservation, research and development. The bill would authorize a $25.7 billion tax break over a 10-year period. The tax breaks would include $11.9 billion to promote oil and gas production, $2.5 billion for “clean coal” programs, $2.2 billion in incentives for alternative motor vehicles, and $1.8 billion for the electric power industry and other businesses. A natural gas pipeline from Alaska would be authorized an $18 billion loan guarantee. The bill would call for producers of Ethanol to double their output. Makers of the gasoline additive MTBE would be protected from liability. They would be required though to cease production of the additive by 2015. Reliability standards would be imposed for electricity transmissions networks, through this bill. The bill would also ease the restrictions on utility ownership and mergers.

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…

In June of 2004, with another loving rubber-stamp to the Bush Administration he voted for yet another Bush-Cheney Energy Bill of big Corporate Welfare to Big Oil and Energy with HR 4503 vote number 2004-241:

Vote to pass a bill that would put into practice a comprehensive national policy for energy conservation, research and development. The bill would authorize o $25.7 billion tax break over a 10-year period. The tax breaks would include $11.9 billion to promote oil and gas production, $2.5 billion for “clean coal” programs, $2.2 billion in incentives for alternative motor vehicles, and $1.8 billion for the electric power industry and other businesses. A natural gas pipeline from Alaska would be authorized an $18 billion loan guarantee. It would add to the requirement that gasoline sold in the United States contain a specified volume of ethanol. Makers of the gasoline additive MTBE would be protected from liability. They would be required though to cease production of the additive by 2015. Reliability standards would be imposed for electricity transmissions networks, through this bill. The bill would also ease the restrictions on utility ownership and mergers.

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…

And what did Bush, Cheney, McConnell, and Exxon Eddie’s “vision” on Energy policy bring us? Record high gas prices and a recession. All the while men like Bush, Cheney, McConnell, and Exxon Eddie have become quite wealthy with their investments.

Next, in Jan. of 2007, we have Exxon Eddie once again voting his stock options and protecting the huge record profits of Big Oil on HR 6 vote number 2007-040:

Creating Long-term Energy Alternatives for the Nation (CLEAN) Act

Title I: Ending Subsidies for Big Oil Act–denying a deduction for income attributable to domestic production of oil, natural gas, or their related primary products.

Title II: Royalty Relief for American Consumers Act–to incorporate specified price thresholds for royalties on oil & gas leases in the Gulf of Mexico.

Title III: Strategic Energy Efficiency And Renewables Reserve–makes the Reserve available to accelerate the use of clean domestic renewable energy resources and alternative fuels.

This legislation seeks to end the unwarranted tax breaks & subsidies which have been lavished on Big Oil over the last several years, at a time of record prices at the gas pump and record oil industry profits. Big Oil is hitting the American taxpayer not once, not twice, but three times. They are hitting them at the pump, they are hitting them through the Tax Code, and they are hitting them with royalty holidays put into oil in 1995 and again in 2005.

It is time to vote for the integrity of America’s resources, to vote for the end of corporate welfare, to vote for a new era in the management of our public energy resources.

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…

Finally, although we find this on his campaign website:

High energy costs weigh on every Kentucky family and that is why Congressman Whitfield has been focused on alternative energy solutions like clean coal technology, ethanol, bio diesel and coal gasification to reduce America’s dependence on foreign oil.

http://www.whitfieldforcongres…

We have this vote on HR 3321 vote number 2007-0832 for investment in renewables:

H.R.3221: New Direction for Energy Independence, National Security, and Consumer Protection Act: Moving toward greater energy independence and security, developing innovative new technologies, reducing carbon emissions, creating green jobs, protecting consumers, increasing clean renewable energy production, modernizing our energy infrastructure, and providing tax incentives for the production of renewable energy and energy conservation.

Rep. PELOSI: This bill makes the largest investment in homegrown biofuels in history. We know that America’s farmers will fuel America’s independence. We will send our energy dollars to middle America, not to the Middle East.

Rep. TIERNEY: This bill incorporates the Green Jobs Act, which will make $120 million a year available to begin training workers in the clean energy sector. 35,000 people per year can benefit from vocational education for “green-collar jobs” that can provide living wages & upward mobility.

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…

I think it is clear to see where Exxon Ed Whitfield’s priorities lie. They lie with the profits of the Big Oil Corporations he is invested in and not with the interests of the American people. We should be finding new solutions to old problems, not investing in the old ways that have failed.

It is time for Exxon Eddie to move on. He has held this seat for too long after promising to only serve two terms. He has been a constant vote against progress in Kentucky or anywhere else in America.

We have an awesome grassroots candidate who needs our support to unseat Exxon Eddie and expand our Congressional majorities. Her name is Heather Ryan. We desperately need the resources to get our message out to the 63% of registered Democrats in this district about the horrible record Exxon Ed Whitfield has done in their name.

Visit Heather’s site here:

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com/

Join our campaign of fighting for grassroots Democrat values here:

http://visitor.constantcontact…

Finally, please consider helping me in my bid to raise $1500 online for Heather by May 20. I am less than $100 from halfway to my goal.

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

Whatever you do, and however you can do it, please support your fellow “Fighting Democrats” in Kentucky’s First District.

Best wishes Fellow Democrats!!

From The Hill:

“We have exceeded expectations on the recruitment front,” said NRCC spokesman Ken Spain. “Across the board, top-tier Republican candidates are running in districts that promise to be competitive in places like the Rust Belt, the Northeast, the upper Midwest and in the emerging battleground of the Southwest.”

Folks, Ken Spain needs your help.  Clearly, he has forgotten the long list of recruitment failures that have plagued the House GOP this cycle.

SSP has some of the most knowledgeable commenters around.  In fact, when it comes to downballot races, you guys are second to none.  But folks, we’ll need each of you to really dig deep and help Ken out with a list of every GOP recruitment failure so far this cycle.

Let’s get to work!

UPDATE:

Republican leaders play down the difficulty of finding willing candidates. Ken Spain, a spokesman for the House Republicans’ campaign committee, acknowledged the challenges in certain districts but said the party had done a good job of recruitment over all.

“We believe we have fielded one of the best Republican recruitment classes in quite some time,” he said.

Now we’re just getting beyond spin.

The filing deadline has passed in a lot of states.  That leads me to wonder, how many congressional races have no opponent?  Which Democrats? Which Republicans?

More below the fold

Here’s a list of states where the filing deadline has passed:

Alabama

Arkansas

California

Illinois

Indiana

Idaho

Iowa

Kentucky

Maine

Maryland

Mississippi

Nebraska

New Jersey

New Mexico

North Carolina

Ohio

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Missouri

Montana

South Dakota

South Carolina

Tennessee

Texas

Utah

West Virginia

The 29  unopposed Democrats (the results in 2004 presidency and 2006 congressional races

AL-07 Kerry by 33, Davis unopposed.  

AR-01 Bush by 5, Berry by 38

AR-02 , Bush by 4, Snyder by 20

AR-04 Bush by 3, Ross by 50

CA-18, Bush essentially tied with Kerry, but Cardoza won by 30 plus

CA-28, a hugely Democratic district: Kerry won by 44, Berman by 55

CA-30, like CA-28: Kerry by 32, Waxman by 45

CA-31, Kerry by 55, Becerra was unopposed

CA-32, Kerry by 35, Solis unopposed

CA-37, Kerry by 38, Richardson by 42

CA-38 Kerry by 32, Napolitano by 51

IL-02  Kerry by 58, Jackson unopposed

IL-04 Kerry by 54, Gutierrez by 73

IL-05 Kerry by 28, Emanuel by 56

IL-07 Kerry by 67, Davis by 74

MO-01 Kerry by 50, Clay by 49

NJ-01 Kerry by 21, Andrews unopposed

NJ-06 Kerry by 14, Pallone by 39

NJ-08 Kerry by 18, Pascrell by 43

NJ-10 Kerry by 64, Payne unopposed

NJ-12 Kerry by 9, Holt by 31

OR-04 Kerry by 0.3%, DeFazio by 35

PA-14 Kerry by

39, Doyle unopposed

TN-06  Bush by 20, Gordon by 36

TN-08 Bush by 8, Tanner by 46

TN-00 Kerry by 44, Cohen by 43

TX-09 Kerry by 40, Green unopposed

TX-16 Kerry by 13, Reyes unopposed

WV-01 Bush by 16, Mollohan by 29

11 Unopposed Republicans:

AL-06 Bush by 59, Bachus unopposed

AR-03 Bush by 26, Boozman by 25

CA-19 Bush by 23, Radonovich by 21

CA-22 Bush by 38, McCarthy by 41

KY-05 Bush by 21, Rogers by 48

TX-01 Bush by 39, Gohmert by 38

TX-02 Bush by 37,

Poe by 33

TX-05 Bush by 34, Hensarling by 27

TX-11 Bush by 57, Conaway unopposed

TX-14 Bush by 35, Paul by 21

TX-21 Bush by 32, Smith by 36

Given what all these races were like in 2006, it’s likely that none would have been competitive, even if there were opponents.  But it’s still a lot easier to win with no opponent at all.  It’s also interesting that there are quite a few southern seats where Bush won in 2004, but the Democratic congressperson wins easily and has no opposition.  There aren’t any equivalents in the other direction: Where there’s no Democrat running, not only did the Republican congressperson have an easy win in 2006, but so did Bush in 2004

SurveyUSA (4/4-6, likely Democratic primary voters):

Steve Novick (D): 23%

Candy Neville (D): 12%

Jeff Merkley (D): 11%

David Loera (D): 6%

Roger Obrist (D): 5%

Pavel Goberman (D): 3%

Undecided: 40%

(MoE: ±4.1%)

With six weeks to go until Oregon’s primary, state House Speaker Jeff Merkley has some work to do in order to claim a victory here.  Part of Merkley’s deficit can be chalked up to the fact that his campaign had not yet begun airing TV ads when this poll was conducted, while Novick has already aired several quirky, attention-grabbing spots.  Merkley launched his air campaign today, so that should help him raise his name recognition.  The question is — with Obama and Clinton buying up chunks of airtime in advance of the May 20th primary, is Merkley at risk of getting swamped out by the presidential spotlight?  He has an awful lot of primary voters to introduce himself to in the coming weeks.

(H/T: Blue Oregon)

SurveyUSA (registered voters, 4/7):

Christine Gregoire (D-inc): 48%

Dino Rossi (R): 47%

(MoE: ±4.1%)

No surprises here.  Despite the tossup status in the polls so far, I’m feeling fairly optimistic here.  Gregoire has had a pretty steady first term, and Rossi will be playing in an unfavorable environment this year.

Well, it looks like Boehner is starting to take matters into his own hands and rectify some of Tom Cole’s incompetence.

More after the fold…

Full article from cq politics:

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp…

It’s not uncommon for congressional leaders to steer fundraising assistance to party candidates who are in difficult races and in need of extra campaign cash. One such effort is the House Republicans’ “ROMP,” an acronym for Regain Our Majority Program, which has released its latest list of Republican candidates who will benefit from additional aid because they are politically vulnerable and/or have been targeted by the Democrats for defeat.

“ROMP 2008,” presently overseen by the political operation of House Minority Leader John A. Boehner of Ohio, was recently established in papers filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC). These records identify the 10 newest recipients of the program’s assistance.

These candidates make up the first batch of ROMP candidates named this year, and the third since the current election cycle began in the 2007-08 cycle. The new recipients’ election contests are outlined below.

7/10 of the candidates were incumbents we ousted in the last election cycle.

• Michele Bachmann , Minnesota’s 6th District (North and east Twin Cities suburbs; St. Cloud). Bachmann was first elected in 2006 to succeed Republican Mark Kennedy, who lost his campaign for the U.S. Senate to Democrat Amy Klobuchar . The Democratic nominee for November’s election will be either Bob Olson, a lawyer, or Elwyn Tinklenberg, a former state transportation commissioner. The latter candidate initially campaigned for the Democratic nomination in 2006 but later deferred to Patty Wetterling, a child safety advocate who lost to Bachmann after also losing as the Democratic nominee against Kennedy in 2004.

• Vito J. Fossella , New York’s 13th (Staten Island; part of southwest Brooklyn). Fossella is the only House Republican who represents part of New York City. He saw his re-election percentage drop from 70 percent in 2002 to 59 percent in 2004, and then again to 57 percent in 2006 even though Democratic challenger Steve Harrison didn’t raise much money. Harrison, a lawyer, is seeking a rematch, though he faces a well-funded primary opponent in New York City Councilman Domenic Recchia.

• Sam Graves , Missouri’s 6th (Northwest – St. Joseph, part of Kansas City). Graves’ campaign for a fifth term may well be the toughest of his career. His Democratic opponent, former Kansas City mayor Kay Barnes, is well-known and well-funded.

• Ric Keller , Florida’s 8th (Central – most of Orlando). Keller won a fourth term in 2006 by a 7 percentage-point margin over Democrat Charlie Stuart, a marketing executive who is one of several Democrats seeking the 2008 nomination.

• Anne M. Northup, Kentucky’s 3rd (Louisville Metro). Northup, who served in the House from 1997 through 2006, is challenging Democratic freshman Yarmuth, who unseated her by a margin of less than 3 percentage points. Northup hadn’t planned a bid to reclaim her seat this year, but she jumped in after the Republican she had been backing, lawyer Erwin Roberts, dropped out of the race to fulfill his military obligations. Northup sought a quick political comeback last year but lost a primary challenge to then-Gov. Ernie Fletcher, who subsequently lost the general election to Democrat Steve Beshear.

• Erik Paulsen, Minnesota’s 3rd (Hennepin County suburbs – Bloomington, Brooklyn Park, Plymouth). Paulsen, a state representative, is the presumed Republican nominee in this suburban Minneapolis district, which retiring Republican Jim Ramstad is giving up after nine terms. The Democratic nominee will either be state Sen. Terri Bonoff or Ashwin Madia, a lawyer and Iraq War veteran.

• Bill Sali , Idaho’s 1st (West – Nampa, Panhandle, part of Boise). The strong Republican leanings of this district are indisputable, as President Bush took 68 percent of the vote there in his 2004 election. But Sali underperformed in his 2006 election for the then-open 1st District seat, in which he defeated Democrat Larry Grant by the underwhelming vote of 50 percent to 45 percent. Grant is seeking the 2008 Democratic nomination along with Walt Minnick, a businessman who lost as the party’s losing Senate nominee against Republican Larry E. Craig in 1996. Sali is opposed in the May 27 Republican primary election by Matt Salisbury, an Iraq War veteran.

• Jean Schmidt , Ohio’s 2nd (Eastern Cincinnati and suburbs; Portsmouth). Schmidt, who is seeking a second full term in a district that usually exhibits strong Republican leanings, faces a rematch of her exceptionally close 2006 race against Democratic physician Victoria Wulsin. Schmidt won that contest by a margin of about 1 percentage point. In the primary elections that took place March 4, Schmidt was renominated with 57 percent of the Republican vote and Wulsin won with 58 percent on the Democratic side.

• Tim Walberg , Michigan’s 7th (South central – Battle Creek, Jackson). Walberg, a freshman, was elected in 2006 over Democrat Sharon Renier, a little-known and underfunded Democrat who lost by just 4 percentage points. The unexpectedly close outcome was influenced by a bitter Republican primary fight in which the very conservative Walberg unseated one-term GOP moderate Joe Schwarz. Renier is running again this year, though Democratic officials are rallying behind state Sen. Mark Schauer, a better-known and better-funded candidate.

• Darren White, New Mexico’s 1st (Central – Albuquerque). White is the sheriff of Bernalillo County, which includes Albuquerque and which is the population base of a politically competitive district that Republican Heather A. Wilson left open to pursue a U.S. Senate bid. White is opposed in the June 3 primary by state Sen. Joseph Carraro. The four Democratic primary candidates are Michelle Grisham, a former state health secretary; Martin Heinrich, a former Albuquerque councilman; Robert L. Pidcock, a lawyer; and Rebecca Vigil-Giron, a former New Mexico Secretary of State.