Swing State Project

With the surprise retirement announcement of Republican Rep. Chip Pickering on Thursday, the bulk of the attention has been focused on potential Republican candidates for the seat (see here).  Given that Pickering’s district has a strong Republican lean (R+14.1), such speculation is certainly understandably.  But a Democratic bench does indeed exist in Mississippi’s third, and with the obvious Republican heavyweight, Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck (herself a former Democrat), declining the opportunity to run according to the Commercial Dispatch, the field could get a lot more interesting on both sides of the partisan divide.

One such Democratic bench member with ties to the district is none other than former state Attorney General Mike Moore, and currently practices law in Jackson, a city partially located within the 3rd Congressional District.  Moore, who left a stellar record during his time as AG, was considered a likely Democratic candidate for Senate in the event of a Trent Lott or Thad Cochran retirement.  But with Cochran likely to run again, Haley Barbour looking mostly strong in his gubernatorial re-election bid this year, and the AG post safe in the hands of Democrat Jim Hood, Moore could not satisfy his statewide ambitions for at least another four or five years (either for a gubernatorial bid in 2011 or a run at Lott’s Senate seat in 2012, if open).  And while Moore was very popular during his four terms as AG from 1988-2004, the last time that his name was on the ballot was in 1999–a considerably long political hiatus.

If Moore wanted to keep his name recognition alive and well, running for–and more importantly, winning–a rare open Mississippi House seat would certainly help him keep his name in the public consciousness.  So will he do it?  The early answer, delivered via a surrogate, is no:

Former state Attorney General Mike Moore – a Democrat who ran for the U.S. House in 1989 – said he’s not interested in seeking Pickering’s seat, according to Jonathan Compretta, an associate in Moore’s law firm who’s campaign manager for current Attorney General Jim Hood.

Under normal circumstances, that would be that.  But are Mississippi Democrats willing to take that as their final answer?  According to Will Bardwell, the locals are at least putting in the effort to persuade Moore to look seriously at the race:

Word around the campfire is that Democrats are attempting to schedule a meeting with former Attorney General Mike Moore to persuade him to run for Chip Pickering’s congressional seat.

The move would make all the sense in the world for Moore, whose ultimate goal is the U.S. Senate but whose name recognition and political stock have been collecting dust since he left state government in January 2004. A seat in Congress would be an ideal launching pad and would keep Moore’s name recognition fresh while he waits for a Senate seat to open in either 2012 or 2014.

The only drawback is that, as of now, Moore carries no real political baggage, which would inevitably change in a hurry after a few years in the House of Representatives. Still, manageable political baggage may be less of a hurdle in 2012 than nearly a decade of political decay.

So on the one hand, Moore could keep his profile alive by risking controversial votes on issues such as the war in Iraq, abortion, and immigration (assuming he wins), or he could risk facing a bit of a “whodat” factor in future statewide races by not having his name on any ballot in twelve or thirteen years.

If Moore is firm in his “no”, the Democratic bench is not short on other potential recruits, such as former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, and former Reps. Wayne Dowdy and Ronnie Shows (the latter of whom lost badly to Pickering in 2002 when their districts were merged after the 2000 census).  Shows, for his part, seems like a strong possibility to give this district another crack:

Shows said he’s antsy to get back in Congress and might seek the seat again.

“Certainly I’m interested in it, but I got to think about it,” he said today.

“I’m looking at it very strongly. … I miss being there, but I’ve been pretty successful since leaving,” he said.

In any event, with open seats an especially rare occurrence in Mississippi, state Democrats have pledged to field a serious contender for the open seat.  While there’s no doubt it would be an uphill climb, would-be challengers could look to Democratic Rep. Gene Taylor, who won his Mississippi House seat with 65% of the vote in a special election in 1989 less than a year after Michael Dukakis collected an ugly 30% of the district’s vote, for inspiration.

UPDATE: Cotton Mouth offers more possible Democratic and Republican candidates.

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

Chit chat power.

The GOPers have started eating their wounded.

Now there is a move afoot to oust Alex Arshinkoff, the chair of the Summit County GOP, and one of our state’s major GOPer powerbrokers.  And it’s being lead by a powerful state Senator to boot.

h/t to Jeff at OhioDailyBlog

Cross posted from West Virginia Blue

Pro-Iraq war Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito spent a day in Iraq and now she’s an expert.

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito has just returned from an unpublicized trip to Iraq and Kuwait.

Though Capito, R-W.Va., had to tread around mostly in full military armor in 116-degree heat, she said the visit helped reinforce her confidence in U.S. efforts there.

She flew into Baghdad earlier this week accompanied by a Republican delegation of Reps. John McHugh, N.Y.; Frank LoBiondo, N.J.; Douglas Lamborn, Colo.; and Gus Bilirakis, Fla.

After arriving in Baghdad, she then went to Fallujah and back to Baghdad.

“We wanted to get a firsthand sense of how things are going,” said Capito in a telephone interview just hours after her return to the U.S. on Thursday. “We talked with leadership and the troops on the ground. My overwhelming impression initially was how proud I am of the men and women in uniform.”

snip

She was mostly impressed with the turnaround of Fallujah, a city 43 miles west of Baghdad and notorious for a 2004 attack on four American contractors who were dragged from their cars, beaten, set on fire, pulled along the streets and hung from a bridge.

“Seven or eight months ago, we wouldn’t have been able to come here,” Capito said. “The level of violence has decreased dramatically. It’s very encouraging, but I still realize it’s a very dangerous situation.”

The U.S. delegation met with Fallujah city government officials. They acknowledged that while the violent atmosphere has lessened, progress remains needed for the political system.

Author, Daily Kossack and Iraq war veteran The Angry Rakkasan wrote a diary about Congressional delegations going to Iraq for the “fact finding” tour:

This is how it happens: A desperate Republican goes to Iraq looking for something-anything-to justify the continuing presence of American troops there.  The Republican stays for a week (give or take), and then returns home as if he or she were Moses coming back from Mount Sinai, carrying to the American people stone tablets engraved with The Ultimate Truth About Iraq.

And of course, this Ultimate Truth About Iraq is learned by the Republican in the chow hall, on the secure base, with the hand-picked soldiers sitting at the table.

This is what Senator Jim Webb rightly  called the “dog and pony show.”  For those who don’t know, that’s an old military expression used to describe how troops are often forced to put on a “show” for visiting politicians or VIPs to convey just how swell everything is going on the front lines.

Politicians or VIPs who’ve served in a combat zone know this.  Sadly, the rest visit the troops in a state of blissful ignorance.

The story does not say what day she was in Iraq, just that it was earlier this week. Somehow in reporting she saw “progress,” Capito and the Daily Mail reporter Jake Stump forgot to mention this happened also this week perhaps on the day she was there:

Hospital officials in northwestern Iraq have told TIME that the death toll from Tuesday’s blasts in Qahataniya may exceed 300, making the multiple suicide bombings the deadliest terrorist operation in the country since the fall of Saddam Hussein. One hospital is saying that there are at least 500 bodies and that 375 people are injured. That report, however, cannot yet be verified.

snip

Since then, the massive “surge” of U.S. and Iraqi troops in and around Baghdad has made the Iraqi capital safer than before from such bombings – but terrorist groups have stepped up attacks elsewhere. There have been a number of attacks in northern Iraq, which had enjoyed a long spell of peace before the start of the “surge.”

Tuesday’s bombings were also a reminder that even successful U.S. military operations can have a short shelf life – a sobering thought for Bush Administration officials and independent analysts who have recently been talking up the successes of the “surge.” After all, the area around Qahataniya was the scene of a major anti-insurgent operation barely two years ago. In the fall of 2005, some 8,000 American and Iraqi troops flushed a terrorist group out of the nearby town of Tal Afar in an operation that was a precursor to the “clear, hold and build” strategy that underpins the current “surge.” A few months later, President Bush cited Tal Afar as a success story for the U.S. enterprise in Iraq.

There have been several attacks in and around Tal Afar since then; last March, two truck bombs killed more than 100 people in a Shi’ite neighborhood in the town. The bombings in Qahataniya were a deadly reminder that the terrorists have not gone very far away. 

And she failed to mention this:

BAGHDAD, Iraq — Despite U.S. claims that violence is down in the Iraqi capital, U.S. military officers offer a bleak picture of Iraq’s future, saying they’ve yet to see any signs of reconciliation between Sunni and Shi’ite Muslims.

Without reconciliation, the military officers say, any decline in violence would be temporary, and bloodshed could return to previous levels when the U.S. military cuts back its campaign against insurgents.

The downbeat assessment comes despite a buildup of U.S. troops that began five months ago and has seen U.S. casualties reach the highest sustained levels since the United States invaded Iraq nearly 4 1/2 years ago.

U.S. officials say civilian casualties in Baghdad are down by half. But they wouldn’t provide specific numbers, and statistics gathered by McClatchy Newspapers don’t support the claim.

The number of car bombings in July actually was 5% higher than the number recorded last December, the statistics show, and the number of civilians killed in explosions is about the same.

Daily Mail reporter Jake Stump. He’s still under the illusion that Gen. David Patraeus is going to write the report.

Army Gen. David Petraeus, top commander in Iraq, informed Capito that areas of the country have undergone vast improvements. Petraeus is slated to give Congress a report next month that addresses whether the troop surge strategy is working. The general has stated that it could take until the summer of 2009 to attain security in Iraq.

The report is really going to be written by the White House. Dan Froomkin of the White House Watch at WashingtonPost.com:

The “Petraeus Report” — the supposedly trustworthy mid-September reckoning of military and political progress in Iraq by Army Gen. David H. Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker — is instead looking more like a White House con job in the making.

The Bush administration has been trying for months to restore its credibility on Iraq (as well as stall for time) by focusing on Petraeus — President Bush’s “main man” in Iraq — and his report to Congress. But now it turns out it that White House aides will actually write the “Petraeus Report,” not the general himself.

But it does appear as if Capito now knows what it is like to suffer. She had to wear a helmet and body armor in the 116 degree heat for a little while and “endured” a 14-hour flight from Kuwait back home.

But maybe her suffering was much worse:

Capito said she gave soldiers opportunities to spill their concerns or frustrations over the war, but none complained.

Or maybe they know that Capito doesn’t listen. Maybe they know that whatever the reality is in Iraq, she’s going to say she has “concerns” and then keep voting to keep them occupying Iraq in the middle of a civil war forever.

We need a Congressional representative who is smart enough not to fall for the “dog and pony shows.” We need a Congressional representative who listens.

[Crossposted @ DitchMitchKY.com]

The sparkling wine bottles will be popping at Fletcher/Rudolph 2007 HQ today! 

The August Survey USA approval/disapproval tracking numbers are out for Kentucky Governor Ernie Fletcher (R), and they show that the scandal-plagued Republican’s approval has topped 40 percent for the first time in over two years (the tracking graph only records back to May 2005).

Why are approval numbers that would scream nothing but political doom anywhere else in the nation sweet music to the politically tone-deaf ears of Ernie Fletcher?  Well, after all, it was only a year ago this month that Fletcher’s approval bottomed out at 24 percent.  [Keep on the sunny side, always on the sunny side!  Anybody got a broom for pedagogically challenged running mate Robbie Rudolph to use as a prop?]

Of course, this month’s upward movement was a statistically insignificant one point (Aug:40/57; Jul:39/57), but all statistics are insignificant to the Fletcher camp, whether they’re the ones showing Kentucky’s sorry state of health, education, or business climate.  [Keep on the sunny side, always on the sunny side!]

Where’s Fletcher’s big gain coming from?  Among Republicans and conservatives.

In the last month, Fletcher’s approval/disapproval went from 58/39 among Republicans to 62/35.  In March of this year, Fletcher was at 46/50 with that group.  So, he’s consolidating his party base, but he’ll need significantly more than 70 percent support from Republicans at the ballot box, especially considering that Republican turnout is likely to be somewhat suppressed, to pull off a November win.  Republicans accounted for 34 percent of the latest survey.

Fletcher’s popularity this month among conservatives rebounded to 57/39 from 52/46 after plummeting between June and July.  Conservatives were 33 percent of this survey.

There was no significant movement among males, females, Democrats, independents, moderates, or liberals.

By region, there was no significant change in western Kentucky, Louisville, or eastern Kentucky. 

There was, however, a statistically significant jump in Fletcher’s approval in northern Kentucky, where the governor went from 37/57 to 45/53.

With retirement fever becoming an epidemic on Capitol Hill this week, I thought it would be useful  to take a look back at how the open seat picture unfolded in the 2006 election cycle and compare it to where we stand today.

At this point in 2005, Republicans were dealing with nine open seats of an eventual total of twenty.  Interestingly, only two of these nine were straight-up retirements, whereas the bulk of these early announcements were made by House members seeking a promotion to a statewide office.  While the rumors and speculation are rampant, only five Republicans have announced retirements this year:

However, of these five, four are “straight-up” retirements, while the fifth (Duncan Hunter) may as well be, too.  Additionally, retirements by Rick Renzi (AZ-01) and Ralph Regula (OH-16) seem all but official, and many are convinced that Dave Hobson (OH-07) will throw in the towel, as well.  I don’t expect that we’ll see too many Republican House members (if any) bothering to try their hand at statewide races next year, but I do expect, with the shocking retirement announcements of Pryce and Pickering, that many more Republican members will test the winds during the August recess and make similar decisions (if not announcements) around Labor Day.  I believe that this rings especially true when one considers that most the “true” retirements of 2006 (i.e. the desire to end one’s political career) came in the fall/winter of ’05 and ’06.  And in a Presidential cycle, perhaps many potential retirees will feel obligated to give their would-be successors more of an opportunity to build their campaigns before the media cycle is utterly dominated by the top of the ticket.

So who’s next to grab a life preserver and bail?

U.S. Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) had announced long ago that he would not seek re-election. Well, it is amazing what life in the majority does to you. Rep. Gutierrez has reversed directions and is now a candidate for re-election. This was never a competitive district, so this is not shutting out the republicans from being able to pick up a seat.

The only, thus far, open democratic seats that remain are those of Rep. Mark Udall (CO-2) and Rep. Tom Allen (ME-1) who are both seeking challenges to move up into the senate.

If anyone from Chicago is reading this, I would like to know how this afects the ground game for any democrats who were trying to move up to the house.

The original CQ article is posted below the flip.

http://www.cqpolitic… 

With Democrats now running the House, Rep. Luis V. Gutierrez, D-Ill., said Thursday that he will seek re-election in his Chicago-area 4th District, reversing an earlier decision to retire from Congress at the end of 2008.

Gutierrez made his announcement in Chicago, where he was attending the Illinois Hispanic Chamber of Commerce's Business Expo.

“In terms of effectiveness, I believe that my position in Congress is where I can be the strongest, most effective advocate for the people of Chicago and for our nation's immigrant communities,” Gutierrez, a leading advocate of overhauling immigration laws, said in a statement.

Gutierrez originally said in December 2005 that he would seek an eighth and final term in November 2006 and explore a run for Chicago mayor in February 2007. He won re-election with 86 percent of the vote last November, then decided against challenging longtime Democratic Mayor Richard M. Daley in a primary.

Even though he had disclosed his retirement plans nearly a year before the 2006 elections, well before it was clear that Democrats would win a majority of House seats, he had confirmed his retirement plans to a Congressional Quarterly reporter in March 2007.

Gutierrez said that his decision to run again was influenced by his wife's recovery from thyroid cancer and the possibility that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, a fellow Chicagoan, will be elected president in 2008. Many Chicago-area officials were encouraging him to run again.

[…]

Most, if not all, of the four Democrats currently seeking Gutierrez's seat are expected to defer to the congressman and not challenge him in the Feb. 5 primary election. The would-be successors are Cook County commissioner Roberto Maldonado and Chicago Aldermen George Cardenas, Manny Flores and Ricardo Munoz. The top candidate in this quartet appears to be Flores, who reported raising nearly $500,000 through the end of June. […]

(crossposted at BlueGrassRoots and DitchMitchKY)

Well, it looks like we’ve really gotten under someone’s skin.

We’ve been hounding Mitch McConnell every day at Ditch Mitch, as his approval rating plummets, his base abandons him, and protesters trap him inside his apartment (he’s too scared to face them).

Mitch McConnell is sending out fundraising letters to supporters in which he whines about the “liberals, radicals, far-left, unions, Hillary, Schumer, etc…” who are hounding him about his pathetic record and his obedience to corporate contributers and George W. Bush rather than his constituents in Kentucky.

In fact, we are “the 60’s anti-war movement on steroids!”. That’s probably the greatest unintentional complement I’ve ever received. I think I’ll have that put on my gravestone/obituary: “one of the leaders of the 60’s anti-war movement on steroids”.

Anyway, Mitchy even gives a big shout out to the good folks at Ditch Mitch!

Liberals on the internet have already created a website called “Ditch Mitch,” and 6,000 radicals from across the nation have already signed up.”

Hey, Mitchy, glad to see you’re reading the site! We feel humbled by your presence.

And as far as being a “radical”, I wish. I don’t think you can have an 8-5 Mon-Fri non-political office job and be defined as “radical”. But I aspire to prove you right someday, Mitchy. And we’re FAR more than 6,000, I can guarantee you that.

On second thought, maybe I’ll have “the leader of 6,000 liberal radicals” on my gravestone/obituary, that’s even better. (Though that honor technically should go to Matt Gunterman or Aniello, amongst a few others.)

And look what we have here. Why it’s Mitchy’s full fundraising letter, in all of its paranoid glory. It’s funny, you can almost smell the desperation in here. For Christ’s sake, have a little more dignity Mitchy.

(crossposted at BlueGrassRoots and DitchMitchKY)

In the past few days, numerous users have informed us that they’ve been having serious issues posting comments here on SSP.  Namely, with the new AJAX system in place, particularly long comments were somehow being lost as people hit the “preview” button.  I’m very sorry for the inconvenience–there’s nothing more frustrating than spending a lot of time writing a post and then losing it.

So, for the time being, I’m disabling Soapblox’s new AJAX comments feature until all the bugs can be worked out with tech support.  I’d definitely like to bring it back as soon as possible, though.

According to Roll Call, Republican Rep. Chip Pickering, long considered a potential successor for either Senator Thad Cochran or Trent Lott, has decided to call it quits:

Rep. Chip Pickering (R-Miss.) has decided not to run for re-election in 2008, a knowledgeable source confirmed Thursday afternoon.

Pickering’s office did not return requests for comment Thursday. But a second source said Thursday afternoon that Pickering was scheduled to meet with his staff in his Pearl, Miss., district office at 4 p.m. Central time, apparently to discuss his political future.

[…]

Several viable candidates are expected to seek the GOP nomination to replace Pickering, including termed-out Mississippi Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck, a former Democrat who is scheduled to leave office at the end of this year.

Pickering, only 44 years old, could easily wait another four or six years for a Lott or Cochran retirement.  But perhaps he’s grown tired of waiting after being teased by potential Senate retirements for two cycles in a row.  Or maybe he’s just tired of not raking in the big bucks.  In 2003, Pickering openly mused about leaving Congress in order to take a massive annual paycheck as a telecommunications lobbyist.  It’s possible that Pickering feels, with life in an enduring House minority and no Senate promotion in immediate sight, that now is the time to cash in.

While Democrats held this district for over 100 years before Pickering claimed this open seat in 1996, it has a solid Republican advantage with a PVI of R+14.  Bush twice dominated this district by 64%-35% and 65%-34% margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively.  If there is a glimmer of hope for Democrats, it is that Rep. Gene Taylor, a conservative Democrat, holds a district even redder (R+16, with a 37-point margin of victory for Bush in 2004).  However, it would be a tall order for Democrats to be able to recruit someone with Taylor’s political skills to contest this seat.

To sum it up, we’ve seen three Republican retirements in a week: Hastert, Pryce, and now Pickering.  (Plus the raging rumors surrounding Dave Hobson.)  I wonder how many more surprises are in store for us.

UPDATE: The Clarion-Ledger confirms.  Pickering is outta here!

UPDATE 2: Will it be a retirement or a resignation?  First Read is “getting conflicting signals”, but suggests that “with Pickering heading to work on K Street, he might want to leave Congress before the lobbying/ethics reform legislation is signed into law”.