Month: October 2010

Is anyone else extremely worried about President Obama’s reelection ? Because I know I am. I am not worried because of the economy, I am worried mainly because of health care and the fact that it could very well be declared unconstitutional by two federal judges by early next year. The first judge is named Henry Hudson and he is a federal judge in Virginia. His ruling is expected in December. Why I am worried so much about Judge Hudson’s ruling ? It is because in prior hearings he has said this

“Unquestionably, this regulation radically changes the landscape of health insurance coverage in America,” Hudson wrote in his 32-page decision.

And on top of that, Judge Hudson owns stock in a company that does campaign work for Republican candidates.

Then there is the Florida Judge, Roger Vinson, who in his written opinion said this,

Congress should not be permitted to secure and cast politically difficult votes on controversial legislation by deliberately calling something one thing, after which the defenders of that legislation take an “Alice-in-Wonderland” tack and argue in court that Congress really meant something else entirely, thereby circumventing the safeguard that exists to keep their broad power in check,” he wrote.

All of this sounds like he could be headed toward declaring the law unconstitutional and if so we be a serious blow to the president’s reelection efforts.

In just a few days California voters will make final decisions on redistricting that will either expand the public commission process, or eliminate it entirely.  These competing ballot measures, Prop 20 and 27 respectively both have intensely waged campaigns with big bucks from conservative backers taking on incumbent legislators and congressional members.

The latest polling has Proposition 20 passing and 27 losing.  But what will that do for the state’s congressional delegation?

Using Dave’s Redistricting App I was able to draw these lines based on the criteria for the commission.  These include geographic compactness, maintaining city and county lines, working to preserve communities of interest.  What this avoids is looking at where incumbents live (the commission can’t know) or trying to draw lines based on any partisanship or competitiveness goal (the commission can draw no line to advantage or disadvantage a party).

Dave’s App is a bit dated in terms of its population estimates, so using current data the urban districts would likely expand a bit and rural districts would likely shrink.  This is only an approximation and presents some of the challenges if a commission were to handle the redraw.

The numbering is not relevant and can really serve to confuse.  Often times I will hear from a legislator or congressman “my district 18 is going to pick up this city” but under the commission both the numbering and the communities in a district will be determined by scratch.  This fallacy diminishes the extraordinary impact of California’s decision to go to a lay board for political redistricting and give them the rules/restrictions that we have.

For the purposes of reviewing this plan I am describing districts by their core city or county, and where there are arbitrary numbers I may reference them, but it is a waste to get caught up into a discussion of why the 11th is in Southern California… that doesn’t matter.

Statewide Map

Population Shifts

The biggest factor in redrawing California (either through the legislature, commission or courts) is the uneven growth between rural and urban communities.  Growth statewide for the past 10 years has been approximately 10%, with 5% growth in San Francisco, 3.5% growth in Los Angeles, and 35% growth in Riverside (inland southern California).  That means urban districts expand as they reach to gobble up 1/53rd of the state’s population, while rural districts contract for the same reason.

Boxed In

Aside from the obvious borders with Oregon, Nevada, Arizona and Mexico, plus a huge ocean, there are also two mountain ranges that provide some relatively impenetrable boundaries for map drawers.  In this map the central coast is drawn vertically because it doesn’t make sense to cross mountain ranges.  The central valley is more “boxy” then the high desert is again vertical and long to take in population.  San Francisco is in a way the easiest part to draw because map makers can start with an assumption that they will not cross a body of water and county/city lines in order to merge two communities (Marin and San Francisco) that do not share a lot of interests.  So, the Bay Area map is first constrained by this factor, and population within the city pushes districts southward.

The Channel

One of the most interesting parts of the state is the Central Valley, specifically San Joaquin County.  If mapmakers were to start in San Joaquin they could easily draw one congressional seat that would take it’s 687,000 residents.  But this is not possible when looking at the whole state.  

As the Bay Area gets drawn there are leftover residents in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, and as the Northern districts are drawn there has to be an outlet for those excess residents.  San Joaquin is perfectly located at the confluence of these two streams, and as overflow comes down the entire central valley acts as a channel for districts that need to expand to gain required population.  

Neatness

Overall the new congressional map is going to look neater.  Districts will take on odd shapes where that is the underlying geography or county / city lines, but where two cities or counties are combined they are adjacent.  Based on the new rules line drawers are not going to purposefully capture one community by going around or past another closer similar community.

This map gets the state’s 53 districts into sets of approximately 690,000 with a variation of +/- 2%.  Getting them perfect using projected 2009 data seemed an unnecessary headache.  When the 2010 census information becomes available the lines will be redrawn in real GIS software using the new data.

Bay Area Map

The Bay area begins in San Francisco, both figuratively and in this case literally.   Lines for the legislature and congress have crossed bodies of water, but under the commission rules it is extremely unlikely that they would draw a congressional district that crossed either the Bay Bridge or Golden Gate.  The political geography starts at the top of San Franciso and counts south until you run out of residents.  In this map I have favored geographic compactness, placing the south eastern portion of San Francisco into the San Mateo district.  Without any emphasis on drawing districts that are neat or compact the better choice would be to draw the San Francisco district as a crescent, with the south-eastern part of the city becoming part of the seat to the south.  

The San Mateo seat would take in 90% of San Mateo – and depending on the final census this district could grow to take more of San Mateo.  

Also seen in this picture are the Northern Santa Clara seat to include a number of smaller cities like Cupertino, Mountain View, Los Altos and Sunnyvayle.  This district goes up to the border of San Jose but should be able to avoid crossing that city line.  

The map also gives a peek at the Alameda seats – one that neatly places Oakland, the city of Alameda and Albany into one district, and Hayward, Fremont and Union City into another.  The casualties in Alameda County are San Leandro that is nearly impossible to keep whole, and Dublin and Livermore that have to be shipped into a Contra Costa district.  Keeping Alameda County together is impossible and Contra Costa became a pass thru for Alameda’s excess population.

Los Angeles Map

Los Angeles is a tough part of the state to draw.  There are long simmering changes in the core of the city where African Americans are being displaced by Latinos, conservative pockets of voters in the South Bay and San Gabriel Valley, extremely liberal white voters in Santa Monica, a strong LGBT population in West Hollywood, and a San Fernando Valley community that has sought to secede from the city.  

In addition to the principles of geographic compactness, preservation of city lines and traditional communities of interest, I have also followed some of the flow of the city as I understand it from living there most my life.  In the end I found that freeways were a significant geographic factor – which is appropriate or poetic for Los Angeles, the birthplace of freeway commuters.  There is a district along the 210 freeway, another along the 10, one that follows the 405.

I tried to avoid totally dividing the San Fernando valley, with an interest in treating it almost as if it was a city itself.   However, this had significant negative consequences in other parts of the County.  I may try to address this with different lines when new data is available.

South Bay and South LA districts

The driving factor in drawing the South Bay is Long Beach.  The city of LB plus a portion of LA that comes into the port, Wilmington, Harbor City and part of San Pedro makes a strong district with shared interests and neat following of city lines.

After drawing these lines there are several obvious districts to follow.  North/northeast of Long Beach is a strong Latino district (61% Latino) with small cities, to the North/northwest are is a traditionally African American base of Compton, Carson, Inglewood (30% African American), then to the west is a good coastal district.  

Santa Monica is a major LA area city and there are two options for drawing its congressional seat.  Mapmakers could take it up to Malibu and Ventura county based on a coastal community of interest, or it can draw the district into LA and absorb the strongly LGBT city of West Hollywood.  I chose the latter option.

Downtown LA districts

The LA city districts are shaped by the contours of the LA basin and some spillover population needs from the neighboring districts.  Both are over 60% Latino and the southern one is just 2% white.  Just to the east of downtown is a district that brings together several small cities, including the now world famous city of Bell.  This district is 87% Latino.  

San Fernando Valley districts

This map gives the San Fernando valley two congressional seats, one of which takes in the City of Burbank that is not technically part of LA city’s San Fernando Valley, but is often considered a “Valley” community.  Under this plan the Valley suffers from encroachment on all sides.  If the plan was started in the San Fernando Valley three congressional districts could be drawn, but that could be at the expense of other parts of the city.

San Gabriel Valley

The San Gabriel Valley is drawn horizontally, following the 210 freeway and foothills from Glendale to Pasadena and other smaller communities, then continues along the same plane to reach into San Bernardino.  Below the foothills there are districts that follow the 10 freeway and 60.  

Orange County districts

The conservative base of California, Orange County has in the last 20 years grown a strong Latino community of Democratic voters in and around Santa Ana and an adjoining conservative base of Vietnamese voters in and around Garden Grove.

The district begins in the south with the encroachment from Northern San Diego county.  This puts Laguna Niguel and southern Orange County in with Oceanside, following the 5 and 405 freeways and the new toll highway 73.  

The coastal district brings in Huntington and Newport beaches, and reaches up to Cypress in an attempt to go inland without dividing a major portion of the Vietnamese community.  

Inland Orange County has one district where Vietnamese will be an influence community, and another where Latinos will have a strong voice.  The Northern Orange County district bleeds out into San Bernardino and toward the Ontario airport.

I am happy to answer questions about any other parts of the state and discuss the challenges facing the commission if they are charged with drawing congressional lines.  Doing a from-scratch new map provides them with a huge opportunity and challenge.

Please leave comments and I will monitor/respond.

Though this was expected to be a boring year for Indiana politics, nothing can be farther from the truth. We had the last FU from Evan Bayh, the resignation of Mark Souder, Ellsworth making a plunge for Senate, and the worst candidate for Secretary of State candidate the Republicans have ever nominated. These predictions are much more pessimistic than they were months ago when I crafted my orginal diary. Times were different then and it looked as if things could still be turned around. They have not. But it will still not be a horrible night all the same. Enjoy!  

IN Senate

When Evan Bayh announced just days before the filing date that he would not seek re-election I was furious. However his timing was actually brilliant. It ensured that none of the big name Republicans who would love the job like Pence or Daniels got on the ballot. Instead the Republicans got stuck with washed up former Senator Dan Coats. Coats has been gaff-tastic and is a seriously flawed candidate. While he had a bloody fight to get his parties nomination over a bunch of nobodies we quietly nominated top tier candidate Congressman Brad Ellsworth. That is what this race looked like when the announcement first happened however while his profile is much better than Coats he has run a horrible campaign. He was clearly not ready for statewide. Honestly even had he run an excellent one the national mood would have kept him down.  I take it as a slight comfort that Coats will probably serve at max two terms. Maybe he’ll even get bagged to death in 2016, but I doubt it. Chances are he will keep a low profile, be a solid R vote and get re-elected. I’m not sure what is next for Ellsworth, he could go for Congress or Senate next year or maybe even LG. I do not know what he will do. Any here is my predict.

Prediction

Coats-54%

Ellsworth -43%

Libeterian-3%

IN-01

Pete Visclosky disgusts me. He is corrupt and genuinely slimy if you get my drift. I have been hoping for a primary challenge for years but to no prevail. No one dare goes against him as it would be the last thing they ever did in politics. Yes this is one of “those district”. It would be nice for him to just retire and take a cozy lobbying job yet he loves Washington too much and has his job as long as he wants it. In fact the Washington Post declared him the safest Democratic Congressman. He is progressive enough (although the sleaze-ball voted against wall street regulation) however he is very corrupt. Trust me the day will come when his ways catches up to him and he is forced out in disgrace. He is pretty much guaranteed a 14th term to Congress though because the Republicans have yet again nominated a perennial candidate who has no chance of winning. He has ran in every race since 2002. So don’t expect a William Jefferson set of events to happen because trust me Mark Leyva is no Joseph Cao. I just hope next cycle he is booted out in the primary. This guy is an embarrassment and trust me a primary here would be the best thing possible for us. Still the area is so corrupt we would probably not get a whole lot better.  

Prediction

Visclosky-67%

Leyva-33%

(Not sure if there are any third parties running. If so give the Lib 2 and take one away from Visclosky and Leyva respectfully)

IN-02

Indiana’s second CD has a Republican tilt to it but I think Donnelly will win by a solid enough margin all the same. In 08 he garnered 70% of the vote. Republicans are smart! This year Republicans nominated a woman who actually goes by Wacky Jackie (although we just nominated Alvin freaking Greene so we probably shouldn’t talk). Wolarski is a state representative. Wolarski has run a decent campaign and do to the lean of the district it will be somewhat close. The most recent poll commissioned by Wish TV had Donnelly leading by five and Jackie’s internals supposedly has Donnelly leading by four.

Prediction

Donnelly-53%

Wolarski-47%

IN-03

I have never been fond of Mark Souder. He has always came off as an ass to me. During his time in Washington he always fought for family values, about as social of conservative as they come. Yeah Mark Souder resigned after admitting to having an affair with a staffer, who ironically made a tape with him about abstinence only sex ed. You are supposed to expect anything in Congress but I did not expect that. None the less I was glad he resigned because I was plain and simply glad to see him away from Washington. He had a somewhat close primary to a rich teabagging car dealer owner. However right after all of the affair shit broke and he resigned. So the Republicans chose a nominee at a convention of delegates. Not surprisingly they chose state senator Marlin Stutzman who ran a very impressive campaign against former Senator and lobbyist Dan Coats. Personally I think Stutzman would have been stronger than Coats but all the same this is a nice parting gift for Stutzman who defeated a hullabaloo of candidates at the convention. I have nothing against Stutzman, while I disagree with him ideology he seems like a nice guy and will be much better than Souder at any rate. We have a great candidate in the district and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Former city councilman Tom Hayhurst is running. Hayhurst was the nominee in 2006 and ran a great campaign. He is known for his fundraising ability. If this was 2006 or 2008 I would put this at lean D but Stutzman is too popular and the district too conservative. I know some say that the supporters of his convention opponents won’t show up but I don’t buy that argument, I just don’t.

Prediction

Stutzman-59%

Hayhurst-41%

IN-04

Steve Buyer does not actually have a squeaky clean reputation but I have never particularly disliked him all the same. He is not seeking re-election this year and do to his wife’s illness. I believe his involvement in the frontier education foundation probably contributed but I want to believe he is retiring solely to spend more time with his wife who is not in good condition health wise. Term limited Indiana SoS Todd Rokita jump at the chance of an upgrade. He also considered a potential Senate run but passed. Rokita is not that bad, while he will be a mostly conservative vote he really does seem reasonable like Dick Lugar, who is also conservative but still has an independent streak. We have no chance here come November. Some dude David Sanders is our nominee.

Prediction

Rokita-66%

Sanders-34%

IN-05

Republicans are so freaking stupid. I am not talking ideology here but pure horse race politics. Dan Burton is the most corrupt politician in the state. He is a royal douche who, I feel, is way out of touch with his district and reality. He is an avid golfer who has actually missed votes to golf with lobbyists and goes on expensive golfing trips. He was also avid on spreading the Vincent Foster conspiracy during Clinton’s days. He has been in Washington too long and everyone hates him and knows he is an ineffective legislature. He was a prime target to be primaried but no, the Republicans fucked it up. About a gazillion people jumped at the chance to knock him out. Had the number of challengers been knocked to single digits he would have lost. But no, name recognition got him a pathetic 30 percent of the vote, barely enough to squeak by former Republican Party chair Luke Messer. 70% of Republicans voted against this sleaze bag but no he still gets a 15th term. Republicans/Teabaggers get your shit together next time! We nominated a real life teabagger Democrat. Yes a teabagging Democrat. I know a lot of people have wondered if the baggers and everyone will unite behind the Democrat, well it ain’t going to happen. Crawford is not a politician and has no skill and while I would rather have a teabagging Democrat than Burton it is not going to happen. Maybe next year they will do it right or maybe Burton will even retire. This is one of those rare moments when teabaggers and Democrats share a same goal.  

Prediction

Burton-65%

Crawford-24%

Others-11%

IN-06

Mike Pence is a savvy politician who has a real future in politics. I wish he was a Democrat because believe me he has skill. I am willing to bet that his next term in Congress will be his last, especially. He will either run for Governor, Senate or President. The only thing that could get him to stay would be the possibility of being speaker someday but I highly doubt it happens. We have put up, once again, minister Barry Welsh. Barry is a good guy but does not have what it takes to make this race competitive.

Prediction

Pence- 72%

Welsh- 28%

IN-07

Andre Carson is the most progressive elected politician in Indiana. He is only the second Muslim currently in Congress. I really like him, though some do not. Carson won a special election back in 2008 when his grandmother, a really decent person and effective Congresswoman, passed away. He was elected to a full term by a large margin and will face perennial candidate Marvin Scott in November. Scott was the 2004 nominee for Senate against Evan Bayh, receiving 37% of the vote. He has ran for this seat several times, actually coming close in 1994. The district is fairly liberal but has some conservative areas to it. Carson actually faced a close election during his original run. He will survive though, no question. The latest Wish TV poll had him at 50 and Scott at 37.  

Prediction

Carson-57%

Scott-43%

IN-08

Brad Ellsworth is universally known and loved in Indiana’s eight congressional district, however he will not be running for Congress this year but will instead be running for US Senate. We got state representative Trent Van Haaften. Van Haaften is fairly popular.  Larry Buchson is the essence of generic R in my view. He won a very unimpressive primary win, much less than I had predicted. The Tea Party is not that fond of him, though they are not of Coats but they are sucking up to vote for him and will probably do the same for Buchson. The national parties have all packed up and left, polls (albeit internal) showing a Republican win here. Ellsworth will probably win here but will not provide coattails.

Prediction

Buchson- 58%

Van Haaften- 42%

IN-09

Baron Hill is my Congressman and I have the utmost respect for him. He has represented the district well and I have always been fond of him. His only “easy” election was last year when the Republicans nominated retread Mike Sodrel again. Sodrel originally ran in 2002 and was defeated yet he successfully ran in 2004 but was defeated again by Hill in 2006 and very soundly again in 2008. You would think he got the message but no, he once again ran this year and he came in third place in the Republican primary. The Republicans nominated Bloomington attorney Todd Young. Young is nothing special but is a step above lunatic Travis Hankins and Sodrel. I mean at least Young has a higher education than a high school diploma for one. Hill did one thing uber stupid though. During a town hall one of these Republican activist with a video camera bated the Congressman and got what she wanted with him telling her that it is his town hall and he makes the rules. He is referring to his ban of video camera’s but it did not look good. It was used in some attack ads but was not as much as I thought Young would use it. Like I said Hill has never really been given a free pass and this is shaping up to be a much more conservative year than he has faced in the past and the Republicans nominated someone much better than Sodrel. So it will certainly be no cake walk but Hill is used to tough elections and he knows how to handle himself. Hill has walked the district like he did in his legendary Senate run against Dan Coats. He has run the best campaign he has ever run in my view. He has been up on the air a lot and so have the DCCC. Though national parties have spent more against Hill he has still been up a lot. Oh and yes Hill has yet to trail in a poll against Young. Today, after much wait we have seen the first publicly released poll of this district showing Hill leading 46-44. Also reportedly Hill’s internals also have this a two point race. Hill has been running a progressive campaign, not hiding his votes on HCR or cap and trade. He boasted of these things during the debates. I have never been more proud and my gut says Hill survives, though I’ll admit it could go either way.

Prediction

Hill-49%

Young- 46%

Others-5%

IN SoS

Incumbent Secretary of State Todd Rokita is term limited. The Democrats nominated Vop Osili  over Tom McKenna for the job and the Republicans nominated Charlie White. White is the worst candidate the state Republicans have ever nominated. In fact he is currently under investigation and I have heard he may be forced to step down if he does win. Still no one cares about SoS. It is very low profile and he will get by do the R by his name.  Polls have him in the lead and he will likely win. Ugh.

White-53

Osili-45

Libetarian-2

Auditor and Treasurer

Berry and Mourdock are safe. They are both facing 28 year old first time candidates. Though I am highly impressed with Mourdock’s opponent who is a Rhodes Scholar. I will probably vote for Berry for Auditor. They will both win in the mid sixties.

IN State House

We were supposed to lose the state house last year but we managed to cling onto it. I do not think we will be as lucky this year. We have many competitive elections and not a lot in our favor. I am predicting we lose it. I am going to predict that the Republicans get 54 seats and we get 46. I hope I am wrong.

State Senate

The Republicans will have no problems retaining the state senate.

Please let me know what you think. I welcome all feedback, positive or not. I would especially like to hear from my fellow Indiana SSP users. Thanks!!!!

 

I have been tracking polls closely for 15 years, but I must confess I have never tracked House polling in great detail until this election.  So it was a real shock when I compared the tracking I was doing with some of the predictions about overall control of the House. This diary is going to do something I haven’t seen anywhere else: look at non-partisan polling and see what we actually know about the race for the House.

Before I get to the data, though, I want to make a couple of observations:

1. Most House races are never publically polled.  Since September 15th, 99 out of 435 races have had public polls.  Moreover, in more than half of these races, there has been only one public poll.  Of course, many races are never polled because they aren’t competitive, but in fact a large number of races that people like Cook rate have no public polling at all.

2.  This means most orecasters are relying on campaign polls to build their forecasts.  Cook has argued that these polls are more reliable than public polls, and he may be right.  One thing is for certain: basing your forecast on private polling by campaigns absolutely makes your forecast susceptible to spin.  Someone like Cook may be able to sort through that, but fundamentally forecasts of House races are based on far less data than Senate races.  

3.  Much of the reporting on House races has involved reporting on partisan polls.  Steve Singiser does that here.  Nate Silver reviewed these polls, and found “Polls with an explicit partisan affiliation are on average about 6 points friendlier to their candidate than those conducted by independent groups.”

Put another way: they are junk. But they are being treated as reliable in many places, including on the front page here.

So let’s get to the data.  You can access all of the data

here.

When I did the calculations last night I was shocked.  There are 41 seats within a week out!! AND THIS NUMBER IS ALMOST CERTAINLY TOO LOW. Because we don’t have data from all of the districts, don’t take this to mean the GOP at this moment isn’t leading in enough seats to take the house.  While the public data covers most of the competitive races, it by no means covers all of them.  There are ALSO districts that haven’t been polled because the GOP lead is presumed so large it isn’t worth it.

But what the data clearly shows is the House is still very much in play.  The GOP leads in many districts are far more tenuous than general reporting suggests.  Moreover, the data on the House is far thinner than most believe.

I am not going to sugar coat things, here.  Another metric I track shows the GOP in a very strong position (more about that later this week).   The average swing in House Polling since October 20th is 16.47%.  This implies a generic ballot of GOP +6 (since the Dems won the generic ballot in 2008 by 10.4%).  That is a huge swing, though nowhere close to what Gallup is finding.