Month: October 2010

You knew it was coming.

Over the past year, I’ve posted more voter models and projections than I can remember, and now, with less than one week to election night, I think I’m ready for some final analysis. Not once in my monthly projections have I projected a GOP take-over of the U.S. Senate, and that remains the case today. Some races have trended right (Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio), but the races which most matter to a take-over (Connecticut, Washington, Delaware) don’t appear poised to trade hands. In fact, as you’ll see in my forthcoming calculations, I think there are a number of under-the-radar races where the Democrat is poised to overperform. In some cases, big time. (Be prepared to catch your jaw when Iowa comes up.) Oh, and speaking of these calculations…I’ve opted to only include races where I foresee a winning margin of 20% or less. (Sorry, Christine.) Also, I’ve included third-party candidates when I foresee that vote garnering 3% or more.

So, with succinct exposition on the table, I say it’s time for some numbers…

D -> R FLIP:

North Dakota

Arkansas

Indiana

Colorado

Wisconsin

Pennsylvania

West Virginia

Post-midterm U.S. Senate composition: 52D/48R

Alaska

R – 44%

I – 37%

D – 19%

McAdams – 4/24/64 = 23%

Miller – 54/29/6 = 36%

Murkowski – 42/47/30 = 41%

Arkansas

D – 40%

R – 38%

I – 22%

Boozman – 18/98/65 = 58%

Lincoln – 82/2/35 = 42%

California

D – 43%

R – 34%

I – 23%

Boxer – 86/3/42 = 49%

Fiorina – 12/95/47 = 47%

Other – 2/2/11 = 4%

Colorado

R – 36%

D – 32%

I – 32%

Bennet – 8/89/48 = 46%

Buck – 92/11/52 = 54%

Connecticut

D – 44%

R – 32%

I – 24%

Blumenthal – 92/11/55 = 57%

McMahon – 8/89/45 = 43%

Florida

D – 38%

R – 38%

I – 24%

Crist – 33/14/49 = 30%

Meek – 59/2/14 = 26%

Rubio – 8/84/37 = 44%

Georgia

R – 41%

D – 40%

I – 19%

Isakson – 98/18/64 = 59%

Thurmond – 2/82/36 = 41%

Illinois

D – 47%

R – 34%

I – 19%

Giannoulias – 86/2/42 = 49%

Kirk – 12/96/49 = 48%

Other – 2/2/9 = 3%

Indiana

R – 46%

D – 38%

I – 16%

Coats – 92/14/55 = 56%

Ellsworth – 8/86/45 = 44%

Iowa

R – 38%

D – 37%

I – 25%

Conlin – 4/86/42 = 45%

Grassley – 96/14/58 = 55%

Kentucky

D – 47%

R – 43%

I – 10%

Conway – 86/8/41 = 47%

Paul – 14/92/59 = 53%

Louisiana

R – 45%

D – 43%

I – 12%

Melancon – 8/87/46 = 47%

Vitter – 92/13/54 = 53%

Missouri

D – 40%

R – 38%

I – 22%

Blunt – 8/96/57 = 52%

Carnahan – 92/4/43 = 48%

Nevada

D – 43%

R – 34%

I – 23%

Angle – 8/86/44 = 42%

Reid – 87/7/42 = 49%

Other – 2/4/5 = 3%

None – 3/3/9 = 6%

New Hampshire

I – 37%

R – 32%

D – 31%

Ayotte – 57/95/13 = 55%

Hodes – 43/5/87 = 45%

New York (B)

D – 50%

R – 30%

I – 20%

DioGuardi – 6/89/48 = 40%

Gillibrand – 94/11/52 = 60%

North Carolina

D – 44%

R – 37%

I – 19%

Burr – 14/94/56 = 52%

Marshall – 86/6/44 = 48%

Ohio

D – 42%

R – 36%

I – 22%

Fisher – 84/3/36 = 44%

Portman – 16/97/64 = 56%

Oregon

D – 38%

R – 33%

I – 29%

Huffman – 6/86/45 = 43%

Wyden – 94/14/55 = 57%

Pennsylvania

D – 46%

R – 42%

I – 12%

Sestak – 88/8/47 = 49%

Toomey – 12/92/53 = 51%

Washington

D – 36%

R – 32%

I – 32%

Murray – 92/6/49 = 51%

Rossi – 8/94/51 = 49%

West Virginia

D – 48%

R – 39%

I – 13%

Manchin – 84/8/48 = 49%

Raese – 16/92/52 = 51%

Wisconsin

D – 39%

R – 38%

I – 23%

Feingold – 89/4/44 = 47%

Johnson – 11/96/56 = 53%

***Voter models based on analysis of ’04-’08 CNN exit polling data + actual voter registration numbers + recent public polling data***

I’m gonna be quick on commentary for now, (got to get back to college work and quit fooling around with piddling little bits of politics), but I’ve been messing around with Colorado, reading bits on its politics and trends, and trying to make the best map possible for Democrats, (as they seem more likely than not to control the trifecta). After a few tries, this is what I came up with:

Sorry about the lack of numbers, an oversight on my part. As for political data, the only district I calculated was teh purple, the current version of John Salazar’s 3rd district. I managed to, if my vague guestimations and additions are right, to shift it a bit to the left, from 50-48 McCain, to 51.5-48.5, in Obama’s favor.

As for the rest, I lopped off the vast, 75% Republican rural areas from the 4th, instead making a diverse, Fort Collins-Greeley-Longmont-Thornton district that would certainly have a considerable Democratic lean, (getting bigger all the time), and that Betsy Markey would be a great fit for. (Red)

The 2nd, Green, changed a bit, and is perhaps a few points to the right of where it used to be, but it’s still safely in the Democratic corner, I even gave it a portion of the whiter, South Denver areas as well to add Democratic votes to it.

The 7th, Gray, takes in Commerce City, parts of Thornton, Lakewood, Wheat Ridge, Golden, Westminister, Brighton, heavily black portions of north Denver, and rural Weld and Adams counties plus conservative Morgan County. It’s very diverse, with a 30% hispanic population, and probably even more Democratic than it currently is.

The 1st, (blue), is maybe 6-10 points more Republican, but considering it gave Obama 75% to begin with, it can afford to lose a little. It’s got a large minority population; 49%, and is probably still very Democratic, in the 66-68% range.

Of the two Republican districts, the 5th, yellow, is about 57% McCain, and the 6th is now about 60-61% McCain.

Anyway, that’s what I came up with, sorry for the haste. I think it is a fairly logical example of what Democrats would do if they controlled the trifecta, even if, godforbid, Salazer and Markey don’t survive. It certainly makes its easier for them to make political comebacks in 2012.  

Here they are.  I am not predicting three-way races, just cuz I’m lazy.  So no FL-12, FL-Sen, MN-Gov, RI-Gov, AK-Sen, CO-Gov, MA-Gov, or ME-Gov, although I will predict winners.  

I’ll start with the Senate:

ND-Sen: Safe for Hoeven.  I’m not bothering with a percentage here.  Is he really that moderate? I’m predicting him more like Lindsey Graham, not George Voinovich.  Am I wrong?

OH-Sen: Safe for Portman.  He’ll score around sixty, incredible for an open race in a swing state.  But Fisher is truly that bad of a candidate.  Here’s hoping we never hear from him again in an election.

AZ-Sen: John McCain 59%  I think many moderates will be upset that he’s gone so far to the right, but of course, this is a red state in a red year with a longtime incumbent in what is really not an anti-incumbent election.

IA-Sen: Chuck Grassley 59%  Same thing as McCain, but a purple state rather than red.  However, no divisive primary.

LA-Sen: David Vitter 57%  Melancon just picked the wrong year.  I think he’d lose his house seat if he were running this year as well, or at least be awfully close.  Let’s get Vitter in 2016.  He is my least favorite non-John Ensign or Sam Brownback or Jim Inhofe senator.  Actually, he might be above all of those.

AR-Sen: John Boozman 57%  Blanche is so far gone.  Has anyone ever lost by this much for a Senate seat as a non-scandal plagued multi-term incumbent?  I’d be curious.  

NC-Sen: Richard Burr 56%  And the streak ends.  Marshall’s a weak candidate, as is Burr, but the GOP tide (about R+4) and the GOP lean of the state (about R+2) provides the margin.

IN-Sen: Dan Coats 56%  This is exactly the same situation as North Carolina, except Coats isn’t really an incumbent.

MO-Sen: Roy Blunt 54%   Blunt is a corrupt man who I hope will lose, but it won’t happen.  Carnahan is nothing new or exciting, but it’s the wrong year anyway.  

NH-Sen: Kelly Ayotte 53%  I think Ayotte is weaker than many realize, and Hodes could have done it in 2006 or 2008, and possibly even 2004.  Wrong year.

IL-Sen: Mark Kirk 52%  Remember, I’m just predicting their percentage of the two-party vote.  Kirk will not break 50, but his semi-moderation and faux-honesty, along with being pro-choice and Alexi’s personal scandals are enough to doom him here.  Sadly, Kirk gets this seat in November, not January, but at least no more Roland Burris.

PA-Sen: Pat Toomey 52%  I really wish that Sestak could win.  Toomey is so far right on many issues, and Sestak is a strong candidate whom I really admire for taking on Specter and defeating him.  I’m not sure what Sestak’s next move would be, as he’s still young.  Secretary of the Navy?

KY-Sen: Rand Paul 51%  I think the drug and unemployement issues will hurt Paul more than most suspect.  Aqua Buddha may hurt him a bit, but it makes me personally less supportive of Conway.  This one may even be a wider margin.

WI-Sen: Ron Johnson 51%  Johnson’s too conservative to get much more than 51% in a pale blue state.  Feingold ran a terrible campaign, which is too bad since he’s one of my favorite senators (Claire McCaskill is probably my absolute favorite, though.  I hope she runs for president in 2016 and wins).

Now to the Dem seats:

CO-Sen: Michael Bennet 51%  Buck’s latest socially conservative statements will hurt him in the Denver Suburbs, and Bennet better capitalize.  Buck’s too extreme to be in office from a purple state.

NV-Sen: Harry Reid 51%  I’m growing more nervous about this one every day, but I still think Harry can pull it out.  Angle seems desperate.  It’s amazing he’s going to win this seat, though.

WA-Sen: Patty Murray 52%  Dino can’t get over the hump, Patty’s not super popular, and so the natural lean of the state comes into play, about 5 points blue minus 4 points for wave year plus 1 point for Dino being Dino.

CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer 53%  I’m going to make calls for her this weekend, but I really think she has it in the bag.  I don’t wanna risk a Senator Fiorina, however.  How anyone can support Carly’s CEO record is incredible; everyone I know whose parents worked at HP in that time (and I have many of those friends, due to where I live) have entire families that despise her.

WV-Sen: Joe Manchin 54%  Raese is too conservative even for West Virginia in a red year, which is saying something.  Oh yeah, he’s also an arrogant jerk.  I hope Manchin becomes a Pryor, not a Nelson.

CT-Sen: Dick Blumenthal 56%  I thought he was dead after the Vietnam comments, but he’s turned it around, and McMahon is deeply flawed.  I love how Jewish the CT Senators’ names sound, it’s almost stereotypical 😛

NY-Sen: Kirsten Gillibrand 57%  Gillibrand’s against a legitimate candidate, but she’s strong and has heavy coattails.  She’ll be in this seat for a long time, I believe, if she doesn’t run for President at some point.

OR-Sen: Ron Wyden 58%  I met him and he offered me an internship.  He’s hilarious, has a funny voice, and is extremely tall.  Oh, yeah, he’s also one of my favorite senators, and I LOVED his health care plan.  He’s also safe.

I believe DE-Sen is safe.

Now to the Governors:

Safe R: Mary Fallin, Bill Haslam, Matt Mead

Kansas: Sam Brownback 59% Brownback is very conservative even for Kansas, and with a popular Democrat leaving office, I don’t think he can break 60.  But it will be close.

Alaska: Sean Parnell 58% I’m not sure why he’s not doing better.  But he isn’t, and polls say he’s up around this amount.

Arizona: Jan Brewer 57% An old lady who doesn’t know how to do debates, but is creaming Goddard due to the year.  I think Hispanic turnout will still be low, and I’m not really sure that many of them are virently pro-illegal immigration.  It’s some people taking a shortcut while the Hispanic voters had to wait to enter the country.  But I digress, Brewer’s safe.

Michigan: Rick Snyder 56%  I personally like Snyder.  He seems like a technocrat, and I’d vote for him over Dillon.  I like Bernero better than either, but Bernero can’t win in a year like this against a legitimate moderate like Snyder.  Oh, and Granholm’s super unpopular.

Pennsylvania: Tom Corbett 56%  The eight-year cycle continues.  Onorato isn’t inspiring, and Democrats need inspiring this year.

South Carolina: Nikki Haley 55%  Haley’s ties to Sanford and her tea party alliances are drawing ire from the local CoC against a Blue Dog Sheheen.  But it’s South Carolina guys, come on.  She’ll win it.  Another Indian-American governor for a deep south state.  Who would have thought?

Iowa: Terry Branstad 55%  Culver has closed by a few points in the last couple weeks, but it’s not enough.  He’s very unpopular, and Branstad is well-liked.

New Mexico: Susana Martinez 55%  Denish has slowly collapsed over the last 3 months, and I think this could go even lower for her.  Richardson’s loathed, Martinez is Hispanic, it all works out right for the GOP this year.

Georgia: Nathan Deal 54%  I really wish Karen Handel had won the primary.  Knowing that Barnes would have lost either way, at least Handel’s not a corrupt scumbag.  I sure can’t say that about Shady Deal (has that nickname been used before?)

Wisconsin: Scott Walker 54%  I don’t think we’re going to win governorships of any swing state but New Hampshire and Oregon this year.  Wisconsin’s swung hard right, and Walker seems popular and sane.

Texas: Rick Perry 53%  This is a bit low for many people, but I think all the newspaper endorsements and poor media coverage will lower his percent a bit.  He’ll still win, but White’s put up a strong fight.  I hope he runs for Senate in 2012.

Nevada: Brian Sandoval 53%  Rory Reid’s slowly catching up, but I really don’t think he can win.  And certainly not with this little time.

Florida: Rick Scott 50%  It’s recount time in Florida again!!!  Sink’s debate thing really may cost her, although how Florida could vote for a crook, I don’t know.  If the parties were flipped, I’d be a Sink supporter still, or at least just not vote.

Illiinois: Bill Brady 50%  I think Chicago will help close this one; Brady is much more extreme than Kirk, and we may have a recount here as well.  Illinois’s Dems really did a TERRIBLE job in the primary, but they only have themselves to blame for that.

Ohio: John Kasich 51%  Strickland’s keeping it close, which is very impressive, but Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are the Dems’ worst non-red states this year.  

Vermont: Peter Shumlin 52%  I think the PVI will let Shumlin narrowly take this one.  Vermont and Delaware will now be the only states with Jewish governors, I believe, amazing considering there are nearly a dozen senators.

Oregon: John Kitzhaber 52%  My native Oregonian father is confused how Dudley’s still in this, and so am I.  But I don’t think Dudley can pull it out.

Connecticut: Dan Malloy 53%  Another Democratic pickup.  I really know nothing about Malloy; why do people think he’s presidential material?

California: Jerry Brown 54%  I really like Jerry.  He’s funny, progressive, quirky, not beholden to the unions like many state senators, and oh yeah, NOT TRYING TO BUY THE ELECTION.  He better win 🙂

Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie 55%  It’s closer than I expected, and it might be due to race, but Abercrombie should take this pretty easily still.

Maryland: Martin O’Malley 55%  He’s remained strong through a tough economy and anti-Dem tide.  Could he someday replace Mikulski?

New Hampshire: John Lynch 57%  Lynch is very well-liked.  

Arkansas: Mike Beebe 58%  This is a great result, for Arkansas.  But Beebe may be one of the last Democratic governors of the state in the near future.  

New York: Andrew Cuomo 59%  I think people are THAT angry in New York, and Cuomo is really blah and uninspiring.  But he is up against Paladino, so the margin could be higher.

You’ll notice I’m being a lot more optimistic than most, but frankly, I don’t jump when Wolf Blitzer and Rush Limbaugh tell me to jump, and those diaries about actual trends in early voting roughly matching 2006 are, to me, much more valuable than some bullshit hyperbole from a punditocracy well known for having all of their heads jammed firmly up each others’ asses.

The election is also close enough that I’m not going to bother with any of that “lean/likely” crap. I’m doing straight who I think will win and lose, and reserving “tossup” (a cop out category if there ever was one) for the races that I truly have no freaking clue over. In other words, the “tossup” category is huge this year, because this is one fracking weird election.

Actual content over the flip.  

DEM LOSSES :

AR-01: Causey is within striking distance, but hasn’t polled ahead all cycle. The lean of the district will sink him.

AR-02: Elliott (shockingly!) polling within 12, but it’s still a joke of a race.

*2 seats in Arizona out of the following: AZ-01, AZ-05, AZ-07, AZ-08.

CO-03: Colorado’s not going to be one of our better states this year. Ironically, Ken Salazar at the top of the ballot might’ve saved his brother this year.

CO-04: Ken Buck’s home district, so R turnout is going to be bloody.

FL-02: Boyd barely won his primary, has lost his base, and is twisting in the wind.

FL-08: Grayson is way too liberal for this district, and, though Webster is a nutjob, I have no faith in Florida voters. Also, early turnout in FL is absolutely brutal for Dems because of the stupid Senate race.

FL-24: Kosmas is an uninspired incumbent who beat a comically damaged Tom Feeney in 2008, then sat back and watched as her district turned on her. Won’t even be close.

GA-02: This may be controversial, but there’s so much anti-Obama racism going on in the South right now, I’d be surprised if Bishop isn’t in it deeper than the polls show. People don’t want to admit they’re racist to total strangers in a poll, after all. Bishop is already within the MOE. I think he’s done. GA isn’t going to be one of our good states this year.

GA-08: Marshall is doomed. Dissolving into a rant about it’s your party leader’s fault that you’re losing is not the mark of a winner. Couldn’t happen to a more deserving a-hole.

IL-11: Halvorson beat an absolute idiot for this seat in 2008 on Obama’s coattails in his home state, then took for granted that it would happen twice. Buhye.

IN-08: I was the last one to give up on this seat, but even I have to concede it’s probably gone.

KS-03: Memo to Kansas Dems: when your incumbent quits, don’t run the guy’s wife just because you can’t come up with a real candidate. It just looks desperate.

LA-03: This one might be closer than expected if Melancon really romps downstate (which I think he will), but we haven’t really got a good candidate to take advantage.

MD-01: In 2008, Kratovil didn’t even win a majority here against the same guy, and the LV sample will be more Republican this year, esp. with the Governor’s race on the ballot.

MA-10: Polls aren’t showing strong liberal third party candidates. Too many Dems spoil the broth.

MI-07: This district hates Walberg, but he’ll get elected anyway on Snyder’s coattails.

MS-04: Taylor is the Martha Coakley of the South.

NJ-03: Shades of NJ-Gov last year in this traditionally Republican district: the Dem sucks, the GOPer sucks, too, but people hate the Dem so much that he’ll narrowly lose.

NM-02: We’ll have a mildly bad year in New Mexico this cycle, and Pearce is ahead in most polling. Martinez at the top of the ticket is the final nail.

NY-19: Similar to Grayson’s district – somewhat Republican, rich, clueless, and represented by a Dem who’s way too liberal to keep getting elected there.

NY-29: Pre-implosion Eric Massa could’ve held this, but we have no one else of his caliber here.

OH-01: Dems targeted Chabot for nearly a decade before he lost in a fluke due to unusually large black turnout for Obama. Driehaus is gone.

OH-06: Appalachian voters are looking for any reason to toss out Dems at the Federal level right now, even if they’re personally popular (see also: WV-Sen, which Manchin will only win because Raese is a carpetbagger). Wilson apparently being a wife-beating a-hole is all the excuse they need.  

OH-15: Kilroy is a completely uninspiring incumbent and a terrible campaigner who turned a sure thing in 2008 into a recount. The good news is Stivers sucks, too, so we might be competitive here in 2012 with a better Democrat.

OH-16: I’m assuming the worst in Ohio this year.

OH-18: Space looked okay earlier, but has collapsed in the last few weeks.

PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper is the Suzanne Kosmas of the North.

PA-10: Like Space in OH-18, Carney looked good for most of the cycle but has collapsed in recent weeks.

SC-05: Memo to John Spratt: Don’t announce that you have a debilitating illness that impedes your mental capacity, then turn around and file for re-election in the same week! It’s just insulting! (What is wrong with these people?)

SD-AL: If Herseth-Sandlin had bothered to run real ads instead of ads about baby poop, she could’ve pulled this out, but her trajectory is not good.

TN-04: Assuming the worst in Tennessee this year.

TN-06: This seat was gone before the ink dried on Bart Gordon’s letter of resignation, and probably even if he hadn’t.

TN-08: We at least tried here, but it’s gone.

TX-17: Edwards looks a bit better in recent polls, but he’s still going to lose.

TX-23: Canseco is leading Rodriguez in most polls and is the better campaigner. TX Hispanics will vote Republican in large numbers if it’s one of their own.

VA-02: This is a tossup in most other estimations, but I don’t see a district so reliant on the military-industrial complex and so close in composition to MD-01 re-electing a Democrat.

WA-03: Heck is gaining on Herrera, but not fast enough. The “cell phone gap” doesn’t really apply to this district because it’s more blue-collar and has never been terribly liberal, so I think polls are accurate. Heck will come closer than polled, but still lose.

WI-07: This district is gone. So is the state.

WI-08: I’m assuming the worst in Wisconsin, which has Kagen going down, too.

*WV-01: This is on the takeover list not because I think Olivero won’t win (he will), but because I expect him to be a Republican by this time next year, so we lose the seat either way.

D TOSSUPS :

AZ-01, AZ-05, AZ-07, AZ-08. Whichever 2 we don’t lose outright are tossups. Stupid Arizona.

CT-05: Ugh. I hate this district.

FL-22: No way this race should be competitive with a lunatic like West in the mix, but our turnout in FL sucks this year.  

IL-17: Hare got caught napping and the top of the ticket sucks, but Dems might still come home to him at the last minute as there’s no Green running here (at least not according to the Race Tracker wiki.)

MI-01: This is the tossup’s tossup. Polling has been all over the MOE here. Depends entirely on who shows up.

MS-01: I’m not entirely convinced Childers is doomed yet. 2008 wasn’t a great year to be a Dem in Mississippi, and Nunnlee has never actually led in any reputable poll. Childers is actually fighting for this one, so let’s wait and see here.

NH-01: CSP has always overperformed polling. She was supposed to lose against Jeb Bradley, too, remember, and Guinta is no Jeb Bradley. I’m still slightly pessimistic that this district is slipping away, but don’t underestimate this incumbent. Don’t overestimate her, either.

NY-20: This district isn’t as Republican as it used to be even a decade ago, but it’s still a close enough race that I’m putting it here. I think Murphy pulls it out, though. I grew up in the district next door (VT-AL), and this entire region of New York has come way leftward in the last few years.

NY-23: Same here. I’m tilting Owens, but it’s competitive regardless. (Do note, though, that Hoffman wouldn’t have been a factor even if he’d stayed in, which is why he dropped out.)

ND-AL: I don’t care what the pundits say, I don’t buy that this state will chuck out its very senior Congressman when they’re already losing Dorgan.

PA-07: Meehan is the better candidate, but big turnout for Sestak in his home district could still save us here, and Sestak is popular enough that that’s a distinct possibility.

PA-11: Kanjorski has crept up a bit as Scranton Dems have consolidated, and Barletta is a really crappy candidate, too. This one will be too close, and whoever wins won’t deserve it.

VA-05: Amazingly, Periello is still within the MOE in polling. If one progressive in a tough district wins this year, it’ll be him.

WI-03: If we get spanked as hard in Wisconsin as we will in Tennessee, Kind is in trouble. Otherwise, he’ll be fine.

D HOLDS :

AL-02: Roby is a weak opponent and has trailed substantially in most polls. This district will probably dump Bright at some point, but not this year.

IL-14: Foster knows his way around this district and should be fine, despite the top of the ticket.

IN-02: Donnelly has proven this cycle that he’s vulnerable, but the GOP is going to have to do better than Wacky Jackie if they want this seat.

IN-09: No way Hill loses to Carmel Boy. The GOP will have to get rid of him the old fashioned way: redistrict the crap out of his district. (Though if we lose IN-08, they can’t really put Bloomington anywhere else without screwing one of their own, so maybe he’ll survive redistricting, too.)

IA-01: Not even close.

IA-02: I’d worry about Loebsack if he had a real opponent.

IA-03: Boswell looks better than he did earlier in the cycle. Bet he retires in 2012 rather than run against Latham.

KY-03: Yarmuth has led comfortably all cycle.

KY-06: Chandler looks in pretty good shape, and turnout for Conway in Lexington will be pretty substantial.

ME-01: Pingree sucks at campaigning and really doesn’t seem to have gotten the hang of her district in general. Weak turnout for Mitchell and Cutler might hurt her here, but I think she still wins.

ME-02: This will be closer than polling suggests thanks to the weird nature of Maine voters and lack of enthusiasm for the liberals running for Governor, but I think Michaud pulls it out.

MA-ALL: We’re only losing MA-10 this cycle, though MA-03, 04, 05, and 06 will all be closer than they should be.

MI-09: Despite an evenly divided district, Peters looks like he’s in pretty good shape.

MI-15: Only in Eric Erickson’s fevered dreams.

MN-01: By the time the GOP started closing here, it was too late. Walz will survive.

MN-08: No way Oberstar loses, no matter how many pundits and Redstate idiots say WERE GOING TO WIN SEVENTY ZILLION SEATS OMFG LOL WTF 11111

MO-03: Not even in 1994.

MO-04: Skelton has led in most reputable polls, and his seniority has to count for something. He’ll get the scare of his life and retire in 2012. (Which makes Gene Taylor’s supporting him for speaker all the more comical.)

NV-03: Titus hit the ground running this cycle and got a good number of Porter voters behind her early. She’s been really fighting hard for it, and will do better than Reid next week.

NH-02: Charlie Bass is the GOP equivalent of Martha Coakley. Having completely forgotten that NH-02 chucked him out on his butt in 2006, he failed to raise money or campaign, took his own election for granted, and is now being annihilated by Kuster, who will win easily.

NJ-12: Holt wins a squeaker, the Leg tries to shore him up in redistricting, Christie vetoes the bill 327 times just to be a troll, the leg impeaches him, New Jersey applauds.

…Well, if the Redstaters are allowed to dream about Dingell and Oberstar losing….

NM-01: Heinrich has polled about where you’d expect him to be in this slightly D (but Heather Wilson-friendly) district. He’ll be fine.

NM-03: Lujan shouldn’t even be on this list, but NM sucks this year.

NY-01: Bishop looked shaky a few months ago, but has started actually running and looks fine now.

NY-02: Israel was never in trouble in the first place.

NY-04: Ditto.

NY-13: McMahon by all rights deserves to lose, but another hilarious dose of Staten Island GOP fail keeps him viable for at least another cycle. He is one arrogant bastard, though.

NY-22: Hinchey had quite a scare last week, but seems to be campaigning for his life now. He’ll pull it out.

NY-24: Somehow Mike Arcuri survives in spite of himself.

NC-ALL: None of the incumbents polled have ever been under 50. This is just more Redstate bloviating.

OR-01: Wu is an absolute idiot and probably deserves to lose, but Corneilles is well behind in polling. The increasing D lean and total voter apathy in this district have kept Wu in office for over a decade – why stop now?

OR-04: Will be closer than it should be because of depressed liberal turnout in Eugene (something about the stupid hippies not liking Kizhaber because he’s not a stupid hippie…or something), but DeFazio has enough crossover support that he’ll be ok.

OR-05: SSP moved this race too soon. Bruun has limited appeal outside of the Portland suburbs, and Schrader runs a good ground game in the rural areas. I’m still leaning Schrader here.

PA-08: Like Hinchey in NY-22, Murphy got quite a scare last week, but looks good now that he’s upped the volume on his campaign.

UT-02: Many long-time Blue Dogs will lose this year. Matheson is not one of them. (The difference between him and Boyd: Boyd nearly got primaried. Matheson nearly got voted out in convention, which is totally arbitrary, then cruised in his primary.)

VA-11: Another in the “dreamin'” column.

WA-02: Major “cell phone” effect in polling the SeaTac area, and fantastic turnout in Washington so far keep this one not even close.

WA-09: Slightly closer than WA-02, but still not close enough to worry about for all of the same reasons.

D PICKUPS :

DE-AL: Won’t even be close.

HI-01: Djou is competitive in polling, but Japanese never answer polls. Hanabusa will win.

LA-02: Cao only won because of Jefferson.

R TOSSUPS :

AZ-03: Quayle fail. This district is too white to benefit from depressed Latino turnout – it’s entirely about the candidate.

CA-03: Lungren is within the MOE and floundering. Bera is campaigning hard. This could be one of the brightest spots of the evening.

IL-10: The Republican equivalent of PA-07. I really have no faith in the voters of this district to vote for three time also-ran Dan Seals with Mark Kirk on the top of the ballot.

MI-03: This is probably actually a slightly Lean R race still, but I’m putting it here anyway.

MN-06: This one has flown under the radar, but Bachmann has really struggled this year (including losing the endorsement of her district’s biggest newspaper for the first time – and people in the Midwest still actually read newspapers). Weak turnout for Emmer might sink her.

WA-08: Like Bachmann, Reichert has had a bad year, and, like Bachmann, he’s lost the Seattle Times and has rumors swirling around that he’s mentally incompetent. Delbene within MOE and has more universal appeal than Burner did.

R HOLDS :

FL-12: This was never more than a Lean R race, and bad turnout will sink us here.

FL-25: I had us winning here until I saw the turnout numbers. Thanks for being a selfish a-hole, Kendrick Meek.

KS-04: GOP has a solid collection of 1990’s driftwood at the top of the ticket and Pompeo is a jerk, but the district’s lean might be a bit too much for Goyle to overcome. This will be like ID-01 in 2006.

NE-02: Not the best year for us in the Mole People States. Terry has never been behind in a poll this cycle and his opponent has issues.

TOTALS:

D SEATS LOST: 41. (R +41)

D TOSSUPS: 15 (R +7)

Subtotal: R +47  

R SEATS LOST: 3 (D +3)

R TOSSUPS: 6 (D +3)

Subtotal: D +6

TOTAL: R +41

NEW HOUSE COMPOSITION:

R 219 D 214

In other words, nearly the same number as the final result from 2006, only skewed in their favor this time.

Bottom line: It’s probably optimistic to expect we keep the House, but being Chicken Little and buying into the Republican/pundit groupthink that we’ll lose 80 seats is just stupid. I’ve got some oceanfront property here in Indiana I’d like to sell you, too.

And I’m sure there are problems with this list. There are too damn many incumbents to keep track of this year. I just wanted to counter all of the doom and gloom around these parts with some “we’re probably hosed, but not as much as people want to believe”.

Also, look at how many of the guaranteed losers are Blue Dogs. Most of the Republican seats we pick up will be won by Progressives, so the losses we sustain in seats such as FL-08 and NY-19 will be mostly recouped.

There are 54 Blue Dogs. As many as half of them are going to lose. It will utterly decimate their caucus, and there aren’t any entering Dems to replenish those numbers, except for maybe the guy in AZ-03 if he wins.

The next Dem caucus will be a lot more liberal, in other words, though I’m not holding my breath that they’ll be able to capitalize on that, especially with the rumors that Pelosi is quitting if we lose the House and leaving that (procedural) idiot Hoyer in charge.  

In any case, I’m sure this is controversial to some of you, so have at me.  

The Holland Sentinel is known for being a quite conservative newspaper, and parts of West Michigan are known for being quite conservative regions of Michigan. And yet…West Michigan saw one of the largest jumps in Democratic voting numbers in America in 2008 and in 2010 the Holland Sentinel published a glowing bio of Democratic Congressional Candidate Fred Johnson, titled “Portrait of Perseverance”

Holland, MI –

Most people don’t know the terror of sensing someone is trying to kill you.

Fred Johnson III knows.

He knew it while a band of four police officers stomped, kicked and punched him as a 15-year-old boy in Landover, Md., in 1974.

Armed with tear gas and batons, Prince George’s County police raided a summer block party Johnson had gone to check out that night.

[snip]

Most people would get angry. Some might want revenge. Fred Johnson wanted to understand.

[snip]

More than 30 years later, it’s clear Johnson has let no excuse stand in his way.

For the past decade, he’s been a history professor at Hope College, well-liked by students and respected by colleagues.

[snip]

Most West Michiganians couldn’t tell you the last time a Democrat won the 2nd congressional seat. Johnson doesn’t care.

When people ask, in jest or not, if he’s crazy, Johnson tells them: “You don’t understand – this is my country.”

The perseverance shows in his campaigning, too. Abandoned by the national Democratic party, Fred Johnson’s campaign broke a fundraising record this year for a Democrat in Michigan’s second congressional district at 119k and counting, and is pushing hard to get West Michigan’s minorities and young people to get to the polls and claim West Michigan. They’re running the following ad on BET, MTV and Comedy Central DURING the Daily Show’s Rally to Restore Sanity coverage.

Fred Johnson has a serious shot at winning this campaign. With incumbent Pete Hoekstra retiring and long time DC and Lansing insider Bill Huizenga running amidst anti-incumbent sentiment THIS is the year West Michgian can swing this district for Democrats…and Johnson is the only one who can claim to be getting his contributions from individual donors rather than PACs, corporate donors and special interests.

This year, we’re on the attack in West Michigan.

Help Fred Johnson keep his ad on air until election day!