Tag: PA-03

Polls close in Pennsylvania at 8PM Eastern.  

There are only four races worth watching in the Keystone state tonight, and the Pennsylvania Department of State will be posting the returns as they come in:

PA-03 (D): Results

PA-05 (D & R): Results

PA-10 (R): Results

PA-18 (D): Results

The Swing State Project’s rundown of these races can be found here.

While the rest of the blogosphere has its attention fixed on the Pennsylvania presidential primary, there are a few other races worth keeping an eye on tonight:

• MS-01: The main event.  Voters in north Mississippi go to the polls for the third time today in order to fill the seat of appointed Sen. Roger Wicker.  Despite the district’s R+10 lean, Democrat Travis Childers, a Prentiss County Chancery Clerk, is running a hard-charging race against the GOP nominee, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis.

  Davis waged a scorched earth campaign against his primary opponent, former Tupelo Mayor Glenn McCullough, and he has extended the same negativity against Childers in the special election.  Might it backfire?  From a New York Times profile on the race:

  Even Republicans acknowledge that the race appears to be close. The party has turned to advertisements questioning, among other things, care at a nursing home owned by Mr. Childers, a campaign style that has disconcerted some Republicans more used to the genteel politicking of candidates who have long known one another in a largely rural, close-knit district.

  “It could go either way,” said Alan Nunnelee, a Republican state senator in Tupelo. “People are frustrated with the aggressive campaign tactics that have been used, particularly on the Republican side. The Republican camp has been much more aggressive than people in northeast Mississippi are used to.” Mr. Nunnelee said he was nonetheless sticking with his party.

  Not so one of the state’s Republican eminences, Jack Reed Sr., who once ran a credible race for governor and led the Mississippi Economic Council. A businessman in Tupelo, he is supporting Mr. Childers, citing “the personal appeal of the candidate” and “dissatisfaction with the Bush administration.”

  As a sign of just how seriously national Republicans are taking this race, the NRCC has spent $292,000 on media and mail against Childers, while the DCCC has spent $141,000 against Davis.  I get the sense that Democrats are operating in a wait-and-see mode here, and if Childers performs well enough to force this race into a runoff on May 13th, we just might see the DCCC amplify their efforts here.  Recent comments from DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen seem to back this up:

  “We have been very creative in using the funds that we’re allowed to coordinate with the other side … which has greatly boosted the TV buy that Childers did,” DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) said Monday. “This is a two-step process. If nobody gets over 50 percent of the vote tomorrow, you go to the next round.”

  With voter fatigue and voter confusion likely high in this district, expect this one to be a very low-turnout affair.  As to who that benefits, that’s anyone’s guess at this point.

  SSP will be liveblogging the results as they come in tonight.  Check back with us later for the score.

• PA-03:  GOP incumbent Phil English once looked like a ripe target for defeat this cycle.  His 2006 performance (54%) against a no-profile Democratic challenger and his district’s R+1.6 PVI seemed alluring for a strong challenger.  Alas, the current crop of Democratic candidates here have yet to impress.

  Erie City Councilor Kyle Foust, once highly touted by the DCCC, has turned out to be a fundraising dud — only raising $61K in the first quarter of 2008 and sitting on $43K cash-on-hand.  His primary opponents, faith-based activist Mike Waltner, labor lawyer Tom Myers, and Lake Erie Arboretum director Kathy Dahlkemper have fared a bit better in the money race, but not overwhelmingly so.  There’s still a chance that this one could turn into a real race, but the primary winner will have to step up his or her efforts big time.

• PA-05:  A longshot’s longshot, this R+9.7 open seat has drawn three Democratic contenders: Iraq War vet and former Senate aide Bill Cahir, Clearfield County Commissioner Mark McCracken, and Lock Haven Mayor Rick Vilello.  Vilello picked up the endorsement of Gov. Ed Rendell, while Cahir (who has the backing of Rep. Patrick Murphy), has been the clear leader in the money race so far, bringing in $121K during the first quarter of 2008.

  The GOP primary has been a huge mess, with nine candidates on the ballot and no clear front-runner.  Matt Shaner (the Club For Growth’s pick), Derek Walker, Jeff Stroehmann and Glenn Thompson seem to be the front-runners, but Walker recently suffered some bad news when he was busted on burglary and criminal trespass charges.  Oops.

• PA-10: Frosh Dem incumbent Chris Carney must be enjoying the GOP fratricide here between businessmen Chris Hackett and Dan Meuser.  Hackett has enjoyed the full-throated support of the nutters at the Club For Growth, but his campaign has also come under fire recently due to allegations that he held pro-choice views last year.  This one has been expensive and bloody.
• PA-18:  Similar to PA-03, this one looked like a compelling target earlier in the cycle, but none of the Democratic candidates have caught on fire yet.  Businessman Steve O’Donnell has self-funded to the tune of $260,000, and he faces off with consultant Beth Hafer and businessman Brien Well for the Democratic nod.  Hafer, the daughter of Barbara Hafer, the state’s former treasurer and auditor general, will have a name recognition advantage here.

1) Run as a Dem and take in 40% of the vote.

2) Run again as a Dem two years later during a wave election and scarf up 42% of the vote.

3) Give up on the Democratic Party, declare it identical to the Republican Party, and say the following to woo potential supporters during your run as an independent:

Wake up and smell the coffee–if that’s what is smelling.  No major party since Buckley v Valeo will ever represent the people anymore.

No.  It is you who endanger the democracy by supporting the major parties who serve only the special interests.  Time to wake up.

Lieberman is no progressive.  Wake up.  Special interests control us.  We need independents.

Sorry for the type.  But get the message and stop the vitriol.

No major party candidate will  represent a democracy any more.  Wake up.  There will be no difference between English and a democrat who will be controlled by the leadership.

Independents will lead the way.  Join me.

You are living in a fool’s paradise.  What happened after the 2006 elections?  Think.

You are serving the wrong master and harming the democracy.  Look at where the money comes from and goes to and you will know who runs the parties.  Think.  The democracy is at stake.  Perhaps much more.

Bull feathers.  No one tried harder than me to change the party from within.  It is impossible.  Wake up.  And since when did you gain the power to exclude non-democrats from a national blog.  Wake up and think.

grow up

And you have chosen to support evil.  Follow the money.

You are contributing to the demise of democracy.  Follow the money.  What is the good of electing Democrats if they are the same as Republicans in the end?  Wake up while there is still time.

I didn’t realize that this website was devoted to the elimination of free speech.

The real fight is to save the democracy.  Join me.

The Democrats have become like the Republicans–special interest run.

The lesser of two evils is still an evil.

Why be wedded to a name.  Wed the ideals.

Join me.  Let’s save the democracy.

I only sued once.  Trial in February.

I run to save our democracy.

7 killed today in Iraq.  The Congress is on vacation.  Wake up.

But to use resources to feed both major parties when they have destroyed our democracy is not a waste?  Wake up.

One runs to speak out.

4) Profit!!!

Yep here we go again. With the dust not yet settled on the last challenge in FL-13 (Good luck Christine) we take a look forward to 2008.

Wander below the fold for the good oil.

Well well well. It seems so soon since we were celebrating the Midterm results and our record of contesting 425 Districts. That’s because it is so soon (LOL). Odd thing to do here in Australia watch the midterms but I took the day off work and had a merry old time watching it all unfold on the net and on cable he he he.

Nonetheless time for the 50 State Page to crank up for 2008 courtesy of the redoubtable Barry Welsh. This cycle we have some help however from the magnificent 2008 Race Tracker wiki. Go and take a look at them both right now and whilst you are there throw Barry some cash. He will be running again and is rightly a netroots champion.

Now for the good oil;
248 races with confirmed candidates. A confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running.

The 248 includes all 233 Democratic incumbents (yeh yeh I know some will not run but I am assuming we will find candidates in those districts, and all Dem incumbents are also listed as Running But Unconfirmed).

There are also 15 Republican held districts where we have confirmed candidates as follows:
FL-01,
FL-09,
FL-21,
IL-14,
IA-04,
MI-07,
MO-09,
NE-02,
NJ-11,
NC-08,
NC-09,
OH-07,
OH-16,
PA-03,
TX-04.

But wait there is more.
We also have 238 candidates who I believe are running but who are at this stage unconfirmed according to the above criteria. All 233 districts held by Democrats but also 5 districts held by Republicans as follows:

AR-03,
CA-04,
ID-01,
IN-06 hurry up and confirm Barry!,
NJ-05.

We also have 6 rumoured candidates. These guys are mentioned as considering the race in the following districts:
FL-06,
FL-13 *** depends on the outcome of the challenge,
NV-03,
NJ-07,
PA-15,
TX-06.

So we are off and racing for 2008. Use the 2008 Race Tracker wiki as the primary source of gossip and information as it is a fantastic site and I have spent a LOT of time contributing there also.

Any candidate news, particularly opponents for Repubs welcome in the comments!