A Texas-Sized Primary Means a Texas-Sized Batch of Maps!

As we all know, Governor Goodhair is now moving on to take on Bill White in the general election, and last night may have shown a natural ceiling for what the Tea Party can accomplish in Debra Medina.

We also say, maybe, some anti-Washington bias in Texans’ sound rejection of Kay Bailey Hutchison.

So how did it all shake out?

Well, here’s the map by county:

Throughout this diary, Blue denotes Perry, Green denotes KBH, and Red denotes either Medina or simply “anti-Perry”, depending on whether it’s a 3-color or 2-color scheme map, respectively.

You’ll see that Medina won 4 counties, Carson, Crane, San Saba, and Zavala. None of these counties are particularly vote-rich; in these four combined, Medina received 1,256 votes to Perry’s 711 and KBH’s 701. KBH won a cluster of counties around San Angelo, but really couldn’t tell you why.

More after the flip.

Here are each candidate’s performances:

KBH:

As we said, KBH did the best in a cluster near San Angelo; she did decently well in the Panhandle. She performed poorly in the Houston area, likely leading to Perry clearing the runoff threshold. Other areas of weakness included East Texas and along the (Mexican) border.

Medina:

Medina did well in North Texas, especially outside Dallas County; and west of Houston. East Texas and the Panhandle were particularly week. Not too much to read into in Medina’s county wins – they’re small counties and some might just be flukes, like Medina’s 11-3-2 win in Zavala County (a heavily Hispanic county that went VERY strongly for Obama).

Perry:

Lastly, we have Perry’s map. Perry did extremely well in Metro Houston, East Texas, and along the border; in contrast to slightly weaker performances in the Metroplex and again around San Angelo. The darkest blue is where Perry received 50%+, keeping him from the runoff.

Here’s an alternative visualization of this (where Blue indicates a Perry performance of 50%+; red indicating less than 50%).

You can see that Perry fell short of 50%, but only barely, in the Metroplex, slightly more so west of Houston (Ron Paul territory, incidentally), and very much so in KBH’s strongholds around San Angelo. This was offset, with Perry gaining votes on 50% in every county along the Gulf Coast.

Of course, the number of votes differs greatly by county. Not counting the numerous counties in which no votes were recorded, the vote counts ranged from a measly 3 votes in Upton County to almost 158,000 in Harris County (Houston). So here’s a map based on Perry’s relation to the 50% runoff line, in terms of raw votes (the key’s in the top left).

Perry was 16,166 votes ahead of 50%, and he built them up a great deal in metro Houston. Perry went +17,168 in Harris County, and tacked on another +5,935 in Montgomery immediately to the north and another +2,626 in Fort Bend. Other good points were: +1,654 in Nueces (Corpus Christi) and +1,452 in Bexar (San Antonio).

Where Perry’s weakness hurt him the most was clearly in the Metroplex. Perry lost -3,097 in Dallas County, -2,633 in Tarrant next door, and -1,172 in Denton up top. Rounding out the bottom 5 are Travis (Austin) at – 1,357 and a surprisingly strong Medina county, Wharton County, – 1,309.

So where does this leave us moving forward? It seems there seems to be a relative coolness towards Perry in the vote-rich Metroplex, something Bill White could capitalize on in his attempt to take back the statehouse. It’s also helpful that White’s natural base in Houston will offset some of Perry’s apparent advantage as well.

I’ll revisit the subject once the Texas Legislative Council (who are awesome at what they do) get precinct data online, but in the meantime…enjoy!

Election Night Results Wrapup

Busy night in Texas last night, although both sides in the gubernatorial race turned out being pretty anticlimactic. Incumbent Republican Rick Perry just barely managed to cleared the 50% hurdle and avoid a runoff; he got 51 to Kay Bailey Hutchison’s 30 and Debra Medina’s 19. Medina’s 19 is higher than anyone would have imagined a few months ago, but it also may reflect there’s a ceiling on what teabaggers can accomplish, and she may have reached that; that’s confirmed with the range of teabagger challenges to Republican incumbents in the House and the state legislature. Challenges to Ron Paul (81%) and Pete Sessions (84%) barely made a ripple, and while self-funding teabagger Steve Clark racked up 30% in TX-04, that’s mostly by virtue of running against the mummified remains of Ralph Hall rather than a vigorous opponent. In what seems like the two most competitive House races in November, the Republicans are headed to runoffs: Quico Canseco vs. Will Hurd in TX-23, and Bill Flores vs. Rob Curnock in TX-17. (Considering how uncontroversial incumbent Railroad Commissioner Victor Carrillo surprisingly lost a one-on-one to an underfunded unknown with an Anglo surname, I wonder if Canseco and Flores should be worried going into the runoffs.)

Bill White doesn’t get the advantage of a facing a runoff-addled Rick Perry in the general, but he’s coming into it with a head of steam, racking up 76% in the Dem primary to 13% for Farouk Shami. He’s likely to get a boost from Latino turnout as he’s backed up by two Latino ticket-mates who won last night: Lt. Governor candidate Linda Chavez-Thompson and Land Commissioner candidate Hector Uribe (who ended at 52% after trailing most of the night). (He’ll also be backed up by a non-annoying Ag Commissioner candidate, in the form of Hank Gilbert, who narrowly defeated Kinky Friedman.)

Further down the ballot, in what many considered the most important race of the night, in the GOP primary for District 9 of the state Board of Education, incumbent wingnut Don McLeroy lost narrowly to moderate Thomas Ratliff. Moderate Geraldine Miller lost in a surprise to George Clayton, though (although he says he wants books to be “agenda-free”). The balance of power between creationists and “moderates” (by Texas standards) on the SBOE may yet come down to a runoff in one other race, between Marsha Farney and Brian Russell.

Two other states had special elections in their state House of Representatives, with the Dems and GOP each holding seats they’d previously occupied. It was a nail-biter in Virginia’s HD-41 in suburban Fairfax County, where Democrat Eileen Filler-Corn prevailed by 42 votes over Republican Kerry Bolognese to keep the seat vacated by now-state Sen. Dave Marsden. (Theoretically, that was close enough for a recount, but the GOP won’t request one and Filler-Corn is being seated today.) In Connecticut, Republican Laura Hoydick defeated Democrat Janice Anderson to keep in GOP hands the seat vacated by Stratford’s new mayor John Harkins; the two will face off again in November.

Texas Primaries Prediction Thread

While we’re sitting around waiting for the main event to start, let’s hear your predictions on tonight’s primaries in the Lone Star State. Can one-time sure-thing Kay Bailey Hutchison somehow pull off the upset and beat Rick Perry? OK, OK, you can stop the laughing now… can KBH somehow keep Rick Perry from clearing 50% and avoiding a runoff? Will enough teabaggers show up at the polls for an impressive showing for Debra Medina (and for primary challenges to Ralph Hall and Pete Sessions), or are their 15 minutes of fame/2 minutes of hate coming to a close? Will the long-anticipated matchup of Ciro Rodriguez and Quico Canseco finally come to pass, or will Canseco’s run of primary bad luck continue? And can Bill White clear 50% himself, or will hair care guru Farouk Shami force him into a resource-draining runoff? To prep yourself for answering all these questions, check out DavidNYC‘s preview from last night.

Polls close at 7 pm CT in most parts of the state and will start reporting then, although El Paso (on Mountain Time) closes an hour later. And in the meantime, don’t forget there are state House special elections on tap in Virginia and Connecticut.

Good news for Texas Democrats

Bill White, the former Mayor of Houston, is sitting on $5.4 million for the general election.  Roughly twice as much as either Rick Perry or Kay Bailey Hutchinson.  

Kay Bailey Hutchinson

1.1M raised

8M spent

2.3M Cash on Hand

Rick Perry

850K raised

8.8M spent

2.5M CoH

Debra Medina

450K raised

228k spent

291K CoH

Bill White

2.2M raised

2.7M spent

5.4M CoH

Farouk Shami

1.1M raised

5M spent

1M CoH

Thanks to the BurntOrangeReport for the numbers

http://www.burntorangereport.c…

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SSP Daily Digest: 2/24

FL-Sen: There’s one more poll of the GOP primary in the Florida Senate race, and it’s even more dire for Charlie Crist than the Rasmussen poll from earlier in the week: Crist trails Marco Rubio 48-30, according to a poll commissioned by the Chamber of Commerce. (Remember that their previous poll, back in October, had Crist leading Rubio 44-30, and even that was considered something of a warning sign at the time.) Meanwhile, Jim DeMint seems to be actively goading Crist into switching parties – something he might want to be careful about, thinking back to that R2K poll showing that was Crist’s best shot at being Florida’s next Senator. (And Aaron Blake is certainly noticing that Crist is sounding more “independent,” for what that’s worth.) Finally, while Jeb Bush will probably never come right out and endorse Rubio over Crist, he’s pretty much hitting us over the head with a sledgehammer as to how he feels about the race, saying that Crist’s support of the stimulus was “unforgivable.”

IN-Sen: While Baron Hill is continuing to let his interest in filling in as Senate candidate be known, DSCC head Bob Menendez seems to be moving full speed ahead on coronating fellow Rep. Brad Ellsworth, saying he “is going to be a great candidate.” (In other Menendez news today, he’s confirming that there aren’t going to be any more Democratic retirements this cycle.) Meanwhile, Evan Bayh is trying to walk back his douchey comments delivered as he walked out the door last week about how the stimulus didn’t create any new jobs (in the face of CBO estimates that indicated he was off by about 2 million). Now he’s downgraded that to it’s “probably largely true if limited to the last six months,” whatever that means.

KY-Sen (pdf): Who would’ve thought, even half a year ago, that Republican SoS Trey Grayson’s biggest problem wouldn’t be the general election but even getting out of the primary? Republican pollster Magellan (independent of either candidate) released a poll of the GOP primary, finding Rand Paul overwhelming Grayson, 44-23. Grayson and Paul are busy trading blows over coal, each accusing the other of being insufficiently pro-coal.

NY-Sen-B: As the search goes on for a celebrity candidate for the Republican nomination to go up against Kirsten Gillibrand, a new name has just bubbled up that may leave some people scratching their heads: Dan Senor, the former Bush adviser (and husband to CNN’s Campbell Brown). He’s currently talking to “money types” about the race.

PA-Sen: Franklin & Marshall’s new poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race doesn’t contain much good news for either Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak; they’re both losing to ex-Rep. Pat Toomey, at least among likely voters. Specter trails Toomey 44-34 and Sestak is down by an even worse 38-20. However, they fare much better among registered voters, with Specter beating Toomey 33-29 and Toomey beating Sestak 25-22. (As far as trendlines go, last month Toomey and Specter were tied among RVs at 40 each, and Toomey led Specter 45-31 among LVs, so it’s actually a bit of an improvement.) Specter has the edge in the Democratic primary, up 33 to 16 (little changed from 30-13 last month). Meanwhile, Toomey has tried publicly to put some distance between himself and his Wall Street past, but it’s clear that he’s privately still eager to take their money in order to fight his opponents’ “populist” agenda. (Hmm… that may be the first time in history anyone has ever called Arlen Specter “populist.”) Toomey’s approach is just part of a larger movement, profiled in detail by the Washington Post, about how Wall Street contributions are increasingly flowing away from the Dems and back toward their usual friends in the GOP.

CA-Gov: One more poll has Meg Whitman overwhelming Insurance Comm. Steve Poizner by a wide margin in the GOP primary: 60-12, suggesting that her ad blitz while the other candidates have stayed silent has paid off (for now). The poll was taken by M4 Strategies on behalf of the Small Business Action Committee (although it’s not clear if they have a horse in the race).

FL-Gov: There are dueling ads in the Florida governor’s race already. In an indication of how topsy-turvy everybody’s messaging has gotten in the last year, the RGA is attacking the Democratic candidate, Alex Sink, for being an elitist banker, while the Democrats are attacking Bill McCollum for voting for congressional pay raises and to lift the debt limit.

IA-Gov: Ed Fallon, whom you may remember for his primary challenge to Rep. Leonard Boswell a few years ago, sounds like he’s sniffing out the possibility of a primary challenge to Gov. Chet Culver now. Fallon says the party needs someone stronger than Culver (who’s in bad position in the polls vis-à-vis Terry Branstad, although that has more to do with Branstad’s strength than Culver’s own approvals).

PA-Gov: The same Franklin & Marshall poll doesn’t look at general election matchups in the gubernatorial race, seeing as how the Democratic field is completely unsettled (although, given the Senate numbers and the lack of name rec for all the Dems, I wouldn’t expect those numbers to be very appealing). At any rate, they find Tom Corbett on track to win the GOP nod, beating state Rep. Sam Rohrer 26-4. The Dem side is utterly dominated by “undecided,” with Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato, Auditor Jack Wagner, and ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel all tied for the lead at 6. (That’s not a misprint.) Scranton mayor Chris Doherty (who just dropped out) is at 4, with state Sen. Anthony Williams still in close striking distance at 1.

RI-Gov: Here’s one of the first definitive-sounding polls in a very interesting gubernatorial race, courtesy of Brown University. Ex-Sen. Lincoln Chafee seems to be in pole position in his independent bid, although his lead over Democratic state Treasurer Frank Caprio isn’t that big: Chafee leads 34-28, with 12 for Republican John Robitaille. Chafee has a bigger lead over Democratic AG Patrick Lynch 32-17, with 13 for Robitaille. There are still a lot of undecideds in the Dem primary, but Caprio leads Lynch, 30-21.

TX-Gov: Rasmussen takes what may be its last look at the Texas gubernatorial race before the primary next Tuesday. The real question may be shaping up to be whether Rick Perry can escape the primary without a runoff. Perry’s in the lead with 48, with Kay Bailey Hutchison at 27 and Debra Medina at 16. (The last Rasmussen poll was three weeks ago, before both Medina’s surge and then subsequent crash, so the numbers really aren’t that different from that poll’s 44-29-14.) Rasmussen also finds a competitive general election, with nice trendlines for Democratic candidate Bill White from the last poll. White loses to Rick Perry 47-41 (instead of 48-39), and loses to KBH 47-38, while beating Medina 47-37 (instead of losing to her 41-38, like last time). Kay Bailey Hutchison may have signaled that she’s thrown in the towel, admitting in an AP interview that she’s been flummoxed by Perry’s success at casting her as a Washington insider. John Cornyn is now saying that he hopes KBH decides to stick around as a Senator “if” she loses the governor’s race — I don’t think you have too much to worry about there, John.

KS-01: SurveyUSA has a poll out of the GOP primary in a race that’s gotten little attention: the election to fill the open seat left behind in the dark-red 1st by Rep. Jerry Moran’s Senate run. At R+23, the only question is whether semi-wingnut or super-wingnut wins. It actually looks like semi-wingnut might win: state Sen. Jim Barnett (who seems more in Moran’s mold) is leading fellow state Sen. Tim Huelskamp (the Club for Growth’s endorsee) 23-16. Former Sam Brownback CoS Rob Wasinger is in 3rd place at 8.

PA-06: Some cryptic comments from Lower Merion Twp. Commissioner Brian Gordon have him sounding like his short campaign in the 6th is about to come to an end (after he managed only 1 vote at the Chester Co. Democratic Party endorsement shindig where Manan Trivedi prevailed), with an eye toward another whack at Rep. Jim Gerlach in two years. He said “I’m either the last candidate out for 2010 or the earliest guy in for 2012.”

PA-12: Now we know the dates for the party meeting where the nominees for the May 18 special election in the 12th get picked. For the Dems, the state executive committee will pick a nominee on March 8. For the GOP, a convention held in Latrobe on March 11 will pick the nominee. One other Dem is also floating his name out there for the nod: former Cambria County Controller Albert Penska. Meanwhile, no one’s quite sure what happens to the half a million dollars in campaign cash left behind by Rep. John Murtha. It looks like money reserved for the upcoming general election will need to be refunded, but the money in his leadership PAC is up for grabs.

VA-05: I wonder if this presages an independent/Tea Party run by ex-Rep. Virgil Goode, or if he’s just looking to keep his face in the news? Goode is planning to address a Lynchburg teabagger gathering next week. Goode, who briefly was an Independent in between being a Democrat and a Republican during his Congressional tenure, has already announced that he won’t run for the Republican nomination again.

VA-09: It sounds like Republican state House majority leader Morgan Griffith is pulling the trigger on a run against Rep. Rick Boucher in the 9th, and has the endorsement of the other two GOP legislators who’d considered the race. Boucher is already acting fast to shore up his right flank, touting his most recent endorsement from the NRA.

WA-03: There’s one less Republican in the GOP field in the 3rd, as Washougal mayor pro tem Jon Russell pulled out of the race and endorsed state Rep. Jaime Herrera. (Interestingly, businessman David Castillo, rather than Herrera, seems to have most of the endorsements from area politicians in this race, despite not being an elected official — although he seems to have locked many of these endorsements down before Brian Baird retired and Herrera got in.) Russell is still looking to move up; he’ll be running for the House seat in LD-18 vacated by Herrera.

Blue Dogs: The Center for Responsive Politics takes a look at fundraising by the Blue Dogs, and finds that they easily outraise their more liberal counterparts among the Dems. The average Blue Dog raised $693K last year, $75K more than the average non-Blue Dog Democrat. Is it a question of them being more vulnerable and needing more money, or them being more corporate-friendly? Or more accurately, is it a question of them being more vulnerable and thus needing more money and thus needing to be more corporate-friendly in order to get money from the people who have money to give?

Redistricting: In its ongoing series looking at redistricting battles in various states, the Rose Institute at Claremont McKenna College has a very thorough rundown of what all is at stake in Florida in the next few years. Complicating matters is the potential passage of a “Fair Districts” initiative that will be on the ballot this year (and seems to be on track to pass), which would restrict the parties’ ability to gerrymander.

TX-Gov: Medina Surge Dwindles, Perry Poised to Win Runoff

PPP (pdf) (2/19-21, likely voters, 2/4-7 in parentheses)

Rick Perry (R-inc): 40 (39)

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 31 (28)

Debra Medina (R): 20 (24)

Undecided: 9 (10)

Rick Perry (R-inc): 52

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 35

Undecided: 13

Rick Perry (R-inc): 55

Debra Medina (R): 36

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±5.2%)

Bill White (D): 59 (49)

Farouk Shami (D): 12 (19)

Undecided: 18 (24)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

PPP has another look at the primary fields in the Texas governor’s race, with election day fast-approaching on March 2. Most notably, they find that Debra Medina’s surge, which they were the first to show a few weeks ago, seems to have peaked and eased off. A lot of that, one would expect, is probably a result of her 9/11 truther inclinations having come out via a sandbagging from Glenn Beck, of all places. There’s a corresponding gain for Kay Bailey Hutchison, suggesting that there was a chunk of not-voting-for-Perry-under-any-circumstances voters who liked Medina’s freshness but switched to the insidery KBH once Medina’s kookiness came to the surface. Although the race looks to be headed to a runoff anyway, Rick Perry looks poised to win against either opponent. (Chris Cillizza has a thoughtful piece today on what went wrong with the once-promising KBH campaign. Shorter version: KBH’s lack of an overriding reason to fire Perry (other than “it’s my turn”) and her focus on genteel general election themes in a primary with a red-meat-hungry base.)

Waiting in the wings for Perry is Democratic former Houston mayor Bill White, who looks to be building support (as Farouk Shami’s novelty wears off). White is clearly gearing up for an expensive general, and has been going nuts on the fundraising front, just releasing numbers indicating that he raised $2.2 million in the most recent reporting period (ending Feb. 20), leaving him with $5.4 million CoH.

RaceTracker Wiki: TX-Gov

SSP Daily Digest: 2/15

AZ-Sen: This is good news! For J.D. Hayworth! The right-wing anti-immigrant vote in the GOP primary isn’t going to be split. Minutemen co-founder Chris Simcox ended his bid and endorsed Hayworth, not having gotten much traction on the polling front even before Hayworth’s entry. In a close race, though, Simcox’s few percentage points could make all the difference for Hayworth. Bad news, for the GOP, though, is that Hayworth and John McCain are planning to go all Mutually Assured Destruction on each other in the primary, with Hayworth threatening that if McCain brings up Abramoff, he’ll bring up the Keating 5. Dems really need a marquee candidate here to be poised to seize the smoldering ruins.

CO-Sen: Andrew Romanoff is rolling out more endorsements, as he seems to be finally getting his primary challenge to Michael Bennet into gear in the wake of recent polling showing him outperforming Bennet in the general election. He’s claiming the endorsement of more than two-thirds of the Democrats in the state House, including current majority leader Paul Weissman, as well as state Senate majority leader John Morse and former House speaker Ruben Valdez. Romanoff, of course, is a former House speaker himself, so he’s got an ‘in’ with the legislative types.

NV-Sen: I wonder if this is the break that’ll save Harry Reid’s butt in November? (Especially if Sue Lowden winds up winning the GOP nomination, as she’s public enemy number 1 to the state’s Paulists.) The “Tea Party” has filed a “Certificate of Existence” (where can I get one of those, for whenever people doubt that I exist?) in Nevada, and will have its own candidate on the ballot in November. Jon Ashjian will reportedly be their candidate; the question still remains just how big a bite he takes out of the Republican column, though. In addition, there will also be a Reform Party candidate on the ballot and as many as five independents.

NY-Sen-B: Mort Zuckerman? Really? Maybe he’s taking a page from friend Michael Bloomberg and realizing that, with enough money, any political office is within reach for a restless billionaire. The 72-year-old Daily News publisher and real estate baron is considering a race against Kirsten Gillibrand, although there’s no indication of which party label he’d use. He’s known as a Democrat, but it seems likely he’d pursue either an independent or Republican bid to avoid the Democratic primary (where Harold Ford Jr. already seems to be occupying the turf Zuckerman would need in order to win).

CT-Gov: Here’s the top facepalm news of the day: Ned Lamont has hired a campaign manager as he officially kicks off his gubernatorial campaign, and he hired Joe Abbey, last seen… wait for it… helming Creigh Deeds’ campaign.

FL-Gov: This doesn’t sound very promising either, as the St. Petersburg Times looks at the growing sense of torpor surrounding the Alex Sink campaign. Sink has had little trouble fundraising and a so-so GOP opponent, but operatives are starting to worry she’s walking a Martha Coakley-ish line on focusing on insider connections and with a lack of interest in mixing it up with voters or even developing a resonant message.

PA-Gov: The GOP state party endorsements came with a lot less drama than the Democrats’, seeing as how they’ve had their candidates locked down for most of a year. AG Tom Corbett easily got the endorsement for governor over state Rep. Sam Rohrer, which was widely expected although it still piqued Rohrer’s handful of right-wing supporters. The most drama was actually for the #2 slot; Bucks County Commissioner Jim Cawley managed to win the Lt. Governor endorsement on the second ballot out of a crowded field. On the Democratic side, Philadelphia-based state Sen. Anthony Williams is still expressing some interest in the race, although he’s set a very high bar for entry for himself. He’s sitting $1 million already, and he says if he can get that figure up to $4 million in the next few weeks, he’ll jump in.

TX-Gov (pdf): There’s yet another poll out of the Texas gubernatorial primaries, from a coalition of newspapers, most prominently the Austin American-Statesman. It’s right in line with the other polls out recently, with Rick Perry at 45, Kay Bailey Hutchison at 29, and Debra Medina at 7. (They don’t poll runoff matchups, or the Dem primary.) Houston mayor Bill White continues to make this a competitive race for the Dems in the general: he trails Perry 43-37, and Hutchison 42-34. Meanwhile, Debra Medina (who recently seemed to blunt any late momentum by revealing her truly kooky side) may have some good company, in the form of Democratic candidate Farouk Shami: he came out with some statements putting him in truther-curious territory as well. Shami is also about to announce the invention of a blow dryer that actually grows hair. (Why aim low, for merely Governor, if that’s true? If it’s really true, he’s about to become a trillionaire.)

AZ-03: I’m not sure if this is the family name you really want, when running for office, but a new candidate is in the GOP field in the open seat race in the 3rd: Ben Quayle. The 33-year-old attorney, who hasn’t run for office before, is the son of former VP and frequent punchline Dan Quayle.

FL-24: With the former CEO of the Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse chain, Craig Miller, planning to run in the 24th, Democrats are spotlighting his opposition to tougher laws on drunk driving. (As a restauranteur, he would have a financial interest in getting that extra drink into his guests.) “Once 0.08 becomes law, why not 0.05 or 0.02?” he asked in a 2000 interview.

MA-10: The William Delahunt retirement rumors aren’t going away, and now Glenn Thrush points to a Delahunt-out/Joe Kennedy III-in/Delahunt-endorses-Kennedy master-plan in the works. Kennedy, a Barnstable County prosecuting attorney, isn’t the only Kennedy of his generation who’s a possible House candidate; Politico helpfully provides a scorecard of various other Kennedys who might run for higher office in the future. At any rate, even if Joe III doesn’t wind up in the next Congress, it’s likely Congress won’t stay Kennedy-free for very long.

OK-05: There’s one less Oklahoma Republican in the primary for the open seat in dark-red OK-05. Corporation Commissioner Jeff Cloud cited non-life-threatening health concerns in dropping out of the race, although he plans to keep serving in his current job. Six different GOPers are in the field (perhaps most notably, former state Rep. Kevin Calvey), but no Dem has gotten in yet.

PA-03: One other dropout from a crowded GOP field, this time for the right to take on Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper in the 3rd. Tom Trevorrow, an ophthalmologist who made a splashy entrance recently with a big serving of self-funding and some expensive consultant hires, ended his bid just as quickly, citing his father’s illness.

RI-01: A couple big names have already gotten into the race to replace retiring Rep. Patrick Kennedy, the biggest possibly being Providence’s mayor David Cicilline (who surprised many by turning down a gubernatorial run this year). Cicilline would be the fourth openly-gay member of Congress, if elected. He’ll have to get past William Lynch in the primary, though; Lynch, the brother of AG and gubernatorial candidate Patrick Lynch, just resigned as the state’s Democratic party chair in order to run. Pretty much every prominent Democrat around is also listed as a possible candidate: Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts (who also decided against a gubernatorial run), ex-Rep. Bob Weygand (of RI-02, who lost the 2000 Senate race to Lincoln Chafee), ex-LG Charles Fogarty, and even state Rep. Betsy Dennigan, who’s currently running a primary against Rep. James Langevin over in RI-02. (Rhode Island seems like Hawaii, where the boundaries between the two districts seem like they’re of little practical importance.) On the GOP side, state Rep. John Loughlin is already in, while former Cranston mayor and Senate candidate Steven Laffey and state party chair Giovanni Cicione are also mentioned.

TN-08: Everyone has pretty well coalesced around state Sen. (and until recently, gubernatorial candidate) Roy Herron to try to hold retiring Rep. John Tanner’s seat. Democratic state Rep. Craig Fitzhugh just announced that he wouldn’t run, and in a somewhat encouraging sign, said that his own polling showed that he wouldn’t have trouble getting past the various Republicans seeking the seat in the R+3 (but historically Democratic) district. Instead, he didn’t see a way past Herron in the primary.

VA-05: PPP has some follow-up on its previous general election poll of VA-05, looking at the GOP primary, which has the potential to be one of the biggest flashpoints in the establishment/teabagger schism. For now, chalk this one up to the establishment: state Sen. Robert Hurt leads at 22 (leading among both moderates and conservatives), with Albemarle Co. Commissioner Ken Boyd at 12. The various members of the teabagging rabble all poll in the low single digits. With 51% still undecided, though, this is still anyone’s game once the ad wars begin.

CA-LG: So, Arnold Schwarzenegger dialed down his banana-republic dictator act from last week, deciding to resubmit Republican state Sen. Abel Maldonado for appointment as Lt. Governor, rather than deciding to swear him in despite not getting enough votes in the Assembly to confirm him. The legislature has another 90 days to decide what to do with him.

TX-Gov: Perry in Runoff Territory, White Strong in New Polls

Take these polls with a grain of salt, considering that they were taken before Debra Medina was nailed for expressing 9/11 truther-esque sentiments in an interview with Glenn Beck. If Perry can scoop up enough votes from her hide, he could avoid a runoff, but that’s a big if.

Here’s the Texas-sized round-up:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (2/8-10, likely voters):

Rick Perry (R-inc): 42

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 30

Debra Medina (R): 17

Undecided: 11

Rick Perry (R-inc): 43

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 33

Undecided: 24

Rick Perry (R-inc): 44

Debra Medina (R): 23

Undecided: 33

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 38

Debra Medina (R): 30

Undecided: 32

(MoE: ±4.9%)

General election match-ups:

Bill White (D): 42

Rick Perry (R-inc): 46

Undecided: 12

Bill White (D): 41

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 47

Undecided: 12

Bill White (D): 43

Debra Medina (R): 44

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±4%)

Hamilton Campaigns (D) and Public Opinion Strategies (R) for the Texas Credit Union League (1/3-4 & 6, likely voters):

Bill White (D): 51

Farouk Shami (D): 19

Felix Alvarado (D): 7

Undecided: 16

Rick Perry (R-inc): 49

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 27

Debra Medina (R): 19

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.9%)

University of Texas/Texas Tribune (2/1-7, likely voters):

Bill White (D): 50

Farouk Shami (D): 11

Someone Else: 9

Undecided: 30

(MoE: ±6%)

Rick Perry (R-inc): 45

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 21

Debra Medina (R): 19

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±5.1%)

General election match-ups:

Bill White (D): 35

Rick Perry (R-inc): 44

Someone Else: 8

Undecided: 12

Bill White (D): 34

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 43

Someone Else: 9

Undecided: 14

Bill White (D): 36

Debra Medina (R): 36

Someone Else: 8

Undecided: 21

Farouk Shami (D): 25

Rick Perry (R-inc): 49

Someone Else: 15

Undecided: 14

Farouk Shami (D): 23

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 49

Someone Else: 15

Undecided: 14

Farouk Shami (D): 24

Debra Medina (R): 40

Someone Else: 14

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±3.5%)

And, in the (increasingly unlikely) event of a special Senate election, U-T took a crack at that one, too:

John Sharp (D): 29

David Dewhurst (R): 15

Michael Williams (R): 3

Florence Shapiro (R): 2

Elizabeth Ames Jones (R):  2

Roger Williams (R): 1

Craig James (R): 1

Undecided: 47

(MoE: ±3.5%)

TX-Gov: Bill White Polls Well for General Election

PPP (pdf) (2/4-7, likely voters)

Bill White (D): 42

Rick Perry (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 10

Bill White (D): 38

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 45

Undecided: 17

Bill White (D): 38

Debra Medina (R): 44

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±2.8%)

PPP (which had surprising Republican primary numbers yesterday, showing Kay Bailey Hutchison imperiled as far as even making it to a runoff) has some pretty encouraging numbers for Democratic candidate Bill White in the general election. White’s losing, but by a 6 or 7 point margin, a good showing in a generally conservative state like Texas. (On the down side, there aren’t a lot of undecideds here, especially in the Rick Perry matchup, so you have to wonder where the last few votes that would get him over the top might come from.)

Interestingly, unlike a lot of other polls which have shown Hutchison, who passes for a “moderate” by Texas standards, outperforming in the general, PPP finds everyone performing about the same vis-a-vis White, not just the very conservative Rick Perry but even the around-the-bend conservative Debra Medina. Perry’s approvals, a woeful 33/50, seem to be holding him back; KBH is at least in positive territory at 40/37, while Medina and White benefit from not being as well-known, at 32/13 and 34/17 respectively.

In other news, White just got the endorsement of the Texas League of Conservation Voters, while his primary opponent, Farouk Shami got a noteworthy endorsement of his own: from the Mexican American Democrats, who liked how his personal story represents “what the American Dream is all about.” I don’t think either of those endorsements can compete with the one Rick Perry just pulled in, though: the mighty Home Scholers.

RaceTracker Wiki: TX-Gov

TX-Gov: Medina Surges, May Be Able to Overtake KBH

PPP (pdf) (2/4-7, likely voters)

Rick Perry (R-inc): 39

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 28

Debra Medina (R): 24

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4.8%)

(Medina supporters only: who is your second choice?)

Rick Perry (R-inc): 43

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 39

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±9.7%)

Bill White (D): 49

Farouk Shami (D): 19

Undecided: 24

(MoE: ±4.9%)

I don’t think anyone was expecting this: PPP takes a look at the primary races in the Texas governor’s race, and finds Debra Medina, the Paulist candidate who was something of a nobody before the debates, making a huge impact in the race. Not only is her presence almost certainly going to force a runoff now — with Rick Perry unlikely to top 50% — but it’s now at least conceivable that she and not Kay Bailey Hutchison could be the one who makes it to the runoff with Perry. There must be a major freakout going on at KBH HQ today; this is all a bit reminiscent of what must have happened last month with the Martha Coakley camp, when the nice lady who’d been coasting for a while finally looked in the rear view mirror and realized that object was closer than it appeared.

What I find baffling, though, is how Medina supporters will split if she doesn’t make it into the runoff. You’d think that Medina’s right-wing followers would all pile into the Perry camp, given a choice between Perry’s anti-Washington posturing and KBH’s decades of insiderness. Nope: it’s almost an even split, with a narrow edge to Perry… suggesting that Medina is tapping into a lot of generalized anti-Perry sentiment too, or maybe just that the voters have a really superficial understanding of the differences between the candidates. (Of course, now maybe the more interesting question we should be asking is: how would KBH supporters split if she didn’t make it into the runoff?)

Finally, there’s the little matter of the Democratic primary. Houston mayor Bill White isn’t currently making it over the 50% mark against hair product magnate Farouk Shami, but he’s almost there, with a sizable number of undecideds left to break.

RaceTracker Wiki: TX-Gov