Author: X Stryker

cross-posted from Election Inspection

According to the most recent polls taken, Democrats stand to pick up 5 Senate seats (AK, MN, NH, NM, VA). Two more are tossups (CO, MS-B), and only one Democratic-held seat is vulnerable enough to rate Lean Democratic (LA). Check out the polls below the fold; some are recent, some are old!

State	Incumbent	Poll	Dem Candidate	%	Rep Candidate	%
AL	Sessions	SUSA 8/25-8/27	Figures	37	Sessions	59
AK	Stevens	R2K 12/3-12/6	Begich	47	Stevens	41
CO	Allard	Rasmussen 2/11	Mark Udall	43	Schaffer	44
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision 12/7-12/9	Vernon Jones	27	Chambliss	57
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision 12/7-12/9	Dale Cardwell	25	Chambliss	57
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision 12/7-12/9	Rand Knight	23	Chambliss	58
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision 12/7-12/9	Josh Lainer	22	Chambliss	58
ID	Craig	Myers Research 11/13-11/19	LaRocco	34	Risch	48
LA	Landrieu	SUSA 12/06-12/10	Landrieu	46	Kennedy	42
ME	Collins	SUSA 10/26-10/29	Allen	38	Collins	55
MN	Coleman	Rasmussen 2/16	Franken	49	Coleman	46
MS	Wicker (replaces Lott)	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 12/2-12/5	Musgrove	48	Wicker	34
MS	Wicker (replaces Lott)	Research 2000 12/10-12/12	Musgrove	39	Wicker	47
NE	Hagel	Research 2000 11/12-11/14	Kleeb	39	Johanns	47
NH	Sununu	Rasmussen 2/13	Shaheen	49	Sununu	41
NJ	Lautenberg	Rasmussen 2/27	Lautenberg	46	Joe Pennacchio	38
NJ	Lautenberg	Rasmussen 2/27	Lautenberg	46	Murray Sabrin	31
NM	Domenici	NM State U. 1/22-1/31	Tom Udall	58	Heather Wilson	30
NM	Domenici	NM State U. 1/22-1/31	Tom Udall	53	Steve Pearce	31
NC	Dole	PPP 1/21	Kay Hagan	35	Dole	48
NC	Dole	PPP 1/21	Jim Neal	30	Dole	49
OR	Smith	Rasmussen 2/13	Jeff Merkley	30	Smith	48
OR	Smith	Rasmussen 2/13	Steve Novick	35	Smith	48
SD	Johnson	Rasmussen 3/4	Johnson	63	Joel Dykstra	28
TX	Cornyn	Research 2000 9/24-9/26	Noriega	35	Cornyn	51
VA	John Warner	Rasmussen 2/19	Mark Warner	57	Gilmore	37

Election Inspection will be tracking these polls through November and beyond.

Rasmussen is showing some good news for Democrats in North Carolina – both Richard Moore and Beverly Purdue are leading Republican Pat McCrory by 4-5%.

North Carolina Gubernatorial Election
Richard Moore (D)	39%
Pat McCrory (R)	34%

North Carolina Gubernatorial Election
Beverly Perdue (D)	42%
Pat McCrory (R)	38%

This shows improvement over December’s poll:

In December, McCrory on top in both match-ups by an identical 42% to 39% margin. That survey was conducted prior to McCrory’s official announcement to run in the election.

Anyone here know how reapportionment works in North Carolina? If we maintain our hold on the Governor’s mansion and the state legislature, can we squeeze an advantage here after the 2010 Census?

Missouri’s most endangered Republican, Governor Matt Blunt just got served!

A lawsuit that is, by Scott Eckersley, his former deputy legal counsel, who is suing Blunt and four current and former aides.

From the Kansas CIty Star:

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. | Gov. Matt Blunt ducked questions Thursday about a lawsuit alleging his office intentionally deleted e-mails in violation of open-records laws but defended the firing of the former staff attorney who sued him. A whistleblower and defamation lawsuit filed Wednesday by former Blunt attorney Scott Eckersley claims that top Blunt aides directed staff in his office and other agencies to destroy e-mails to avoid providing information sought under public records requests.

The real question is, “What are they trying to hide?” Looks like the deletions are just the tip of the iceberg!

Here’s Blunt’s approval numbers: 46% approve, 48% disapprove. The crosstabs show 36% of the sample were Democrats, 29% Republicans, and 28% Independents. If that’s how party affiliation is lining up in Missouri, we’re in very good shape.

Democratic AG Jay Nixon is running strong – last I heard he was up 51% to 42%. I’m betting we can paint this one as “Democrat Favored”.

(I’m not too embarrassed to admit that I’ve never heard of this GOP crumb-bum until today. – promoted by James L.)

Being in the minority sucks. GOP Rep. John Peterson of PA-05 is expected to announce his retirement today.

Two Republican officials with knowledge of the decision said Peterson was expected to announce his retirement. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they did not want to pre-empt the congressman’s announcement, which was anticipated later Thursday.

No indication yet why he’s leaving exactly, but he’ll turn 70 this year.

Peterson was re-elected in 2006 with 60% of the vote, underpolling Bush by less than 1%. This is rough, red country to be certain (R+10), but it does include State College.

2006 challenger Don Hilliard says in a comment on Race Tracker Wiki:

Please note my name is Don Hilliard. I ran against Congressman Peterson in 2006 and intend to do so again in 2008. Please add me to your site. Thank you.

UPDATE: Wikipedia on Peterson’s environmental record:

Peterson received the lowest possible environmental rating from the nonpartisan League of Conservation Voters in 2006, casting what the group qualified as anti-environment votes on twelve out of twelve critical issues ranging from oil drilling offshore and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, salvage logging and logging roads, and the Clean Water Act, to the Toxics Release Inventory program and low-income energy assistance. The conservative environmental group Republicans for Environmental Protection singled out Peterson as “Worst in the House in 2006” on environmental issues. In addition to assigning the representative a score of zero for his voting record, REP censured him individually for “efforts to remove the moratorium on Outer Continental Shelf gas drilling through the Interior appropriations process.” According to the League of Conservation Voters, “natural gas drilling can create massive amounts of water and air pollution and can leave open the possibility of oil spills, which would be toxic for a wide variety of marine and coastal life.”

Good riddance!

UPDATE #2: It’s official.

Peterson said in a statement released by his office that he desires to spend more time with his family in Pleasantville. He said his retirement is effective at the end of his current term.

Wow, it’s like Republicans all over congress are suddenly remembering how much they love their families! I guess being on the Appropriations committee isn’t as fun when you’re in the minority.

Your thoughts?

(Cross-posted from MyDD)

Disclaimer: I am not a Clinton supporter. This diary is not in support of Hillary Clinton, nor in opposition to Hillary Clinton. In my mind, Hillary, Obama, and Edwards all have a pretty good shot at being president. The reason I am writing about Hillary’s cabinet is that she has more well-established connections than the other two, which makes it easier to speculate who might be in her cabinet.

Who do you think will be in Hillary’s cabinet? My guesses below the fold.

VP: Evan Bayh

Secretary of State: Richard Holbrooke

Treasury: Gene Sperling

Defense: Diane Feinstein

Atty General: Janet Napolitano

Interior: Tom Vilsack

Agriculture: Ron Sparks

Labor: Richard Gephardt

Commerce: Charlene Barshefsky

Energy: Hilda Solis

Transportation: Ed Rendell

Education: Bob Miller

Veteran’s Affairs: Johnnie Wilson

Health and Human Services: Tammy Baldwin

HUD: Ron Dellums

Homeland Security: Bob Kerrey

Chief of Staff: Terry McAuliffe

Trade Rep: George Munoz

EPA: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Director of National Intelligence: Robert Menendez

OMB: Joe Andrew

Drug Czar: Tom Siebel

National Security Advisor: Jane Harnan

Ambassador to the UN: Joe Wilson

Just some vague guesses. This is who I think might be picked, not who I necessarily think should be picked. What do you think?

Whoa. The latest poll from SurveyUSA on the GOP presidential primary race in California shows Giulani’s lead having shrunk from 20% last month to just 2% a mere 5 days after Fred Thompson’s announcement on Jay Leno. If Thompson can pick off California, we could be moving a lot closer to a deadlocked GOP convention.

Obviously, this is just one poll, and it could be an outlier. All of us regular SSP readers know better than to jump to conclusions just yet. But to go from a 20% lead to a 2% lead with a 4.4% MOE strongly suggests something big could be going on here.

Crosstab analysis below the flip.

Thompson leads by 4% with men, but trails 12% with women. The partisan breakdown by gender is huge here: 63% of the likely GOP primary voters were men. Thompson remained completely flat with women since last month, while Romney gained 8% among women.

Among conservatives (58%), Thompson beats Giuliani 31% to 22% (with McCain and Romney trailing at 17% and 16% respectively). Moderates (33%) strongly go for Giuliani (40%). Thompson gains 8% with conservatives.

Blacks (3%) preferred Thompson to Giuliani 35% to 23%. Thompson gains 20% here, more than double his previous numbers.

Thompson leads by 1% among a crucial GOP voter segment, complete idiots people who think Global Warming is made-up, whereas more sensible GOP voters (relatively speaking here) prefer Giuliani by 5%.

76% of likely GOP voters oppose gay marriage, and they prefer Thompson by 1%

Gun owners prefer Thompson by 2%, the gunless go for Rudy by 7%.

Young voters prefer Rudy, and increasing agge correlates with increasing preference for Thompson.

Here’s a really odd one. Giuliani leads among Bush voters (85%) by 2%. Thompson leads among Kerry voters (7%) by 3%. However, those who think Bush is one of the Greatest American Presidents (26%) prefer Thompson by 2%, and those who think he is one of the worst (18%) prefer Giuliani by 6%.

So, why do we care? If Thompson wins CA and the South, and Romney wins the Mountain West, eastern New England, and gives a strong showing in the Midwest (winning IA, MI, and perhaps some of the Great Plains states), and Giuliani does his thing in the Mid-Atlantic, Illinois, and Swing States like FL, MO, OH, and CO, then we could be headed for a deadlocked contest that goes to the convention for a resolution. This would force the GOP candidates to spend money on the primaries rather than saving for the General election. It would also increase the chances of the GOP’s weakest candidate, Mitt Romney, getting nominated and then crushed by the Democratic nominee in the general.

Michigan Republicans are going ga-ga for native son Mitt Romney, according to the latest ARG poll.

Among 600 Republicans, former Gov. Mitt Romney (at 39%) leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (13%) and former Sen. Fred Thompson (12%) in a statewide primary; Sen. John McCain trails at 9%, former Speaker Newt Gingrich at 7%. All other candidates receive less than five percent each.

(h/t – Pollster)

Analysis below the flip.

If the Republicans nominate Romney, we will win the White House in 2008 easily – every head-to-head matchup shows Romney getting crushed. Do you think a Romney win is far-fetched? Looks at the GOP primary schedule so far (subject to change, obviously):

Wyoming, 1/5: No polling yet, but this is Mormon country. Romney will win here.
Iowa, 1/14: Romney leading by 10% in the latest poll.
Michigan, 1/15: Romney leading by 26%, and was born here.
Nevada, 1/19: Mormon territory. Romney leading by 10%.
South Carolina, 1/19: Trends are pointing towards a win for Thompson, but the most recent poll (ARG) has Giuliani up by 5. I predict Thompson will take it though.
New Hampshire, 1/22: Romney up by 4%

Of course, this will be followed by Florida, which will likely be a big win for Giuliani, and then Maine – the last time Maine was polled was in May, when McCain was still leading in New Hampshire. I think a strong performance in New Hampshire could lead to a Romney win in Maine. That would have Romney racking up double-digit victories in the first 3 contests, winning 5 of the first 6 states, and 6 of the first 8 states.

That’s a pretty strong position to head in to Super Tuesday, isn’t it? Now, granted, Giuliani is likely score major victories on Super Tuesday – California, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, for example, and probably Illinois and Colorado. It could also be a good day for Thompson, with wins in Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, and possibly Missouri and Arkansas (if Huckabee drops). Romney will pick up Utah, and if McCain has dropped out, he could net Arizona as well. With the momentum he’s generated, could it make him competitive in Super Tuesday states that have not been polled (or not polled in the past 3 months) such as Minnesota, Delaware, West Virginia, Alaska, Oklahoma, and North Dakota?

Giuliani will certainly perform well in most of the biggest states in the union: CA, NY, FL, IL, PA, and NJ, with very strong numbers in the mid-atlantic region. Thompson’s powerbase will be in the mighty Southeast. If Thompson draws enough votes to win Virginia, Giuliani might not win enough delegates for a majority. In order to compete with Giuliani, Romney will need strong performances in the remaining 3 areas of the country: New England, the Midwest, and the West.

In New England, he’s leading in New Hampshire, and his connections as former Governor of Massachusetts combined with the collapse of the McCain campaign could help boost Romney over Giuliani. In the West, he has a strong Mormon base in UT, NV, ID, and WY (not to mention being CEO of the organizing committee for the Salt Lake City Olympics), and the latest polling puts him within 1% in Oregon and second place behind McCain in Arizona (New Mexico, Washington, and Colorado look like Giuliani zones for now). That leaves the rather underpolled Midwest – which is where Romney was born and leads in MI and IA. Could IN, MN, and the Great Plains follow suit? If Romney can exploit his midwestern roots (possibly with a little ethanol support added in), a Romney nomination might actually happen. And for us, that’s a Good Thing.

Fred Thompson’s officially in the GOP primary race for President, now, and so far, he’s the clear leader in the heavily Republican South.

Alabama: Thompson 31%, Giuliani 26%, McCain 16%, Gingrich 8%, Romney 3%, Undecided 13% (ARG 7/30-8/2 MOE +/-4%)
Georgia: Thompson 27%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 14%, Gingrich 13%, McCain 7%, Huckabee 3%, Brownback 2%, Paul 2%, Undecided 12% (ARG 8/2-8/6 MOE +/-4%)
Kentucky: Not polled. Borders Tennessee.
Louisiana: Not polled.
Mississippi: Not polled.
North Carolina: Thompson 30%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 12%, McCain 7%, Other 7%, Undecided 23% (PPP (D) 8/1-8/2 MOE +/-4%)
South Carolina: Rudy Giuliani 26%, Fred Thompson 21%, John McCain 12%, Mike Huckabee 9%, Mitt Romney 9%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Sam Brownback 2%, Ron Paul 2%, Undecided 12% (ARG 8/26-8/28 MOE +/-4%) – Note: 3 other polls in August (PPP, Rasmussen, Clemson U) have Thompson leading by 1-4%
Tennessee: Fred Thompson 45%, Rudy Giuliani 15%, Newt Gingrich 11%, John McCain 10% (InsiderAdvantage 3/31-4/1)
Texas: Fred Thompson 25%, Rudy Giuliani 21%, Mitt Romney 15%, Mike Huckabee 13%, John McCain 8%, Ron Paul 5%, Other 8%, Undecided 5% (IVR 8/29 MOE 4.1%) – Note: Past Primary Voters polled
Virginia: Only poll was in February, and Thompson wasn’t even an option.
Arkansas: Only poll was in March, with Huckabee having a massive lead.

Florida, of course, is very different from the rest of the South – latest numbers there (Rasmussen) are Rudy Giuliani 30%, Fred Thompson 17%, Mitt Romney 15%, John McCain 7%, Mike Huckabee 5%.

So far, it looks like Thompson has a well-defined Dixie powerbase, comparable to Romney’s popularity in the Mormon Mountain States (UT, ID, NV, and the unpolled WY) but much larger (Romney also holds IA, NH, and MI so far). Giuliani, however, still holds a massive lead in the Big Blue states (NY, CA, IL, NJ, PA) and swing states like FL, OH, MO, NM, CO, OR, WI, and WA.

A Republican congressman leaving threatening voice mails for a couple who had backed a GOP rival because they highlighted the money he took from the gambling industry? Let me guess, is he a member of the Club for Growth? Ding ding! Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-CO-05) is a “growth” all right… one that ought to be surgically removed from the body politic in the next congressional election.

Below the flip, try to figure out whether or not he returned the money.

Federal records show that Lamborn received a $1,000 check Jan. 30, 2007, from the IGT PAC. Records also show receipt of $500 from Murphy last summer.

Lamborn said he has returned both contributions, but he could not say when that was done.

Nancy Brown, a spokeswoman for Jones Vargas, a law firm in Reno, Nev., that represents IGT, said the company’s PAC sent a $1,000 contribution to Lamborn in January. She said Lamborn returned the check, although she could not provide the date of the return.

Federal records do not show that the check was returned.

Hmmmm, sure ya did, Doug. The couple in question supported Jeff Crank, Lamborn’s top GOP rival in last year’s 6-way Republican primary, who barely lost by a margin of 27% to 25.4%. The wife worked for Crank as a scheduler for two months. Is Jeff coming back to challenge Lamborn in 2008? You bet. The district has a PVI of 15.7, however, so even with a bruising GOP primary, it will be tough for any Democrat to win – last go-round, Jay Fawcett lost by 19%. So far this district lacks any confirmed or rumored Democratic candidates, and I couldn’t find any info suggesting Fawcett would try again.

The Denver Post has the text of the messages, including this gem:

And like I said I’d rather resolve this on a Scriptural level but if you are unwilling to do that I will be forced to take other steps, which I would rather not have to do.

Race Tracker for CO-05