Author: spiderdem

So I’ve gotten the feeling that our prospects in the Senate have been sinking recently, even more so than during the last quarter of 2009.  So I asked myself, “Why do I have that feeling?”  And then I went back and looked.  The answer in more cases than not is Scott Rasmussen.

I’m not saying Rasmussen is a bad pollster.  In fact, he may just be ahead of the curve in terms of predicting what may be a dismal Democratic turnout in 2010.  But he is an incredibly frequent pollster, and his polls have dominated the narratives in many of these races as a result of their sheer frequency.  

Here are the races rated by Cook as Lean Retention or better for the challenger:

(1) ND-OPEN – Hoeven’s dominance here has been tracked by several pollsters.  Not a case in point.

(2) DE-OPEN – The proposition that Castle v. Coons is a washout is based on a single Rasmussen poll taken January 25 showing a 56-27 Castle lead.  There is no other recent polling.

(3) AR-Lincoln – Ras is at least corroborated by PPP in showing Lincoln’s sorry ass getting blown out.

(4) NV-Reid – Much like Arkansas, PPP corroborates Rasmussen’s solid R leads.

(5) CO-Bennet – All of the gloom and doom in this race comes from two recent Rasmussen polls showing double-digit leads for Norton over Bennet.  Research 2000 actually showed a small lead for Bennet only a month ago.  

(6) PA-Specter – Again, the gloom and doom here comes from two recent Rasmussen polls showing 9-point leads for Toomey over Specter.  Quinnipiac showed an even race on December 8.

(7) IL-OPEN – Once again, the gloom and doom here comes from a single Rasmussen poll showing Kirk up 6, which was directly contradicted by a PPP poll just a week prior showing Giannoulias up 8.

(8) MO-OPEN – Yet again, more gloom and doom exclusively from Rasmussen, showing Blunt up 7 and 6.  Every non-Rasmussen poll has Carnahan ahead.

(9) OH-OPEN – Again, the narrative that Portman is winning comes from Rasmussen, although Quinnipiac had a 3-point Portman lead back in November.  

(10) NH-OPEN – Several polls have corroborated Rasmussen’s high single digit lead for Ayotte over Hodes, so this is not a case in point.

(11) KY-OPEN – Like New Hampshire, Rasmussen’s polling showing high single single digit leads for Republicans is corroborated by other pollsters here.

(12) IN-Bayh – The only reason that this race is viewed as competitive as far as I can see is a Rasmussen poll that showed Mike Pence up on Bayh and John Hostettler within 3.  Today, Research 2000 showed Bayh up 16 on Hostettler and 20 on Indiana-hating Dan Coats.  Cook has now moved this from Safe D to Lean D, presumably based largely on Rasmussen.

(13) CA-Boxer – Kind of like Indiana.  The main reason this race is viewed as competitive is Rasmussen’s polling, starting in July when Ras showed a 4-point race with Fiorina while others showed 15 to 20 point leads.  In fairness to Ras, a recent PPIC poll showed Tom Campbell within 4, giving some corroboration for Ras’s take.  But nobody else has had Fiorina closer than 8.  Cook has had this at Lean D for some time, and I suspect that was partly based on the July Rasmussen poll.

(14) CT-OPEN – Ras shows a pretty solid Blumenthal blowout, although less so than other pollsters.  Not a case in point.

I am using Wikipedia to track polling, and may be missing some polls.  Please correct me if I am mischaracterizing anything.

Of these 14 races, I would say that Rasmussen has had a stranglehold on the recent gloom and doom narratives in 7: DE, CO, PA, IL, MO, OH, and IN.  Put another way, I have been led to the subconscious belief that we are going to lose the first 6, and be in for a dogfight in IN, strictly based on Rasmussen polling.  I would also put CA in pretty close to the same category as IN, although PPIC did recently confirm a close race with Campbell at least.

I do not think this is an accident.  I do not remember this kind of frenetic pace from Rasmussen before Obama took office.  SSP recently suggested Rasmussen has gotten so prolific that he could be called “spammy.”  My gut tells me Ras is getting as many polls out there as he can precisely so that he can dominate the narratives with his polls and their aggressive turnout model.  Combine this with his right wing framing on issue polling, his inexplicable use of an aggressive likely voter screen for presidential approval three years before the election, his haste to poll Republican “dream” candidates, and his frequent yucking it up with conservative talking heads, and you’ve got yourself a Republican cheerleader trying to influence elections rather than study them.  Again, his polls may be right.  But his transparent efforts to drive the narrative seem very partisan to me.

Here are my sometimes arbitrary and always meaningless and premature picks for the 2009-2010 governor’s races.  I’m seeing 7 Republican pickups, 6 Democratic pickups, and 1 Independent pickup of a Republican seat in RI.  That would leave the governor distribution at 27D-22R-1I.  I’m expecting substantial economic recovery, but still a fairly anti-incumbent mood.

PARTY SWITCHES

1. WY-OPEN – Simpson (R) over Generic D by 36 – I can’t imagine Freudenthal suing for a third term, but why doesn’t he just say so already?  Otherwise, there is officially no hope.

2. KS-OPEN – Brownback (R) over Generic D by 33 – No significant D has stepped up.  We will be asking, “What’s the matter with Kansas” more than ever with Brownback in charge.

3. RI-OPEN – Chafee (I) over Lynch (D) by 10 and Trillo (R) by 28 – Chafee’s partyless brand will play well in an anti-incumbent year.

4. HI-OPEN – Abercrombie (D) over Aiona (R) by 14 – Kos poll looks solid for Dems.

5. CA-OPEN – Brown (D) over Whitman (R) by 12 – Whitman will not be able to pick up enough D’s to make it all that competitive against Brown.

6. OK-OPEN – Fallin (R) over Edmondson (D) by 10 – Tough times for D’s in OK.  PPP poll looks good for Fallin.

7. TN-OPEN – Wamp (R) over McWherter (D) by 9 – No polling, but D hold seems unlikely here given overall trends in the South.  No top-notch D candidate has emerged.

8. VT-OPEN – Racine (D) over Dubie (R) by 9 – Third party candidate likely holds the margin down for Dubie, but D should win.

9. VA-OPEN – McDonnell (R) over Deeds (D) by 8 – Video of Deeds dodging tax question is going around.  Pretty ugly stuff.

10. MN-OPEN – Rybak (D) over Haas (R) by 6 – Hope and expect that R.T. gets in.  Seems like the strongest candidate in the running.

11. MI-OPEN – Cox (R) over Cherry (D) by 4 – Economically strapped Michigan gives strong Republican candidate a chance in the Statehouse.

12. FL-OPEN – Sink (D) over McCollum (R) by 3 – Sink a good candidate for Florida.  Can win some of the panhandle/North Florida votes as well as traditional D areas.

13. CO-Ritter – McInnis (R) over Ritter (D) by 3 – Ritter pretty unpopular.  Colorado still conservative enough to elect McInnis statewide.

14. AZ-Brewer* – Goddard (D) over Martin (R) by 2 – Goddard a very strong, well-known D in Arizona.  Unpopular Brewer bows out or loses primary to State Treasurer Dean Martin.  Hope PPP polls here next week.  They were talking about it.

HOLDS

15. NJ-Corzine – Corzine (D) over Christie (R) by 1 – Christie numbers continue to go down, Daggett goes up.  Just enough for Corzine win.  See Franken v. Coleman.

16. PA-OPEN – Onorato (D) over Corbett (R) by 2 – Dogfight.  Hopefully Onorato can find strong runningmate from Philly.

17. MA-Patrick – Patrick (D) over Cahill (I) by 3 and Baker (R) by 18 – R has no chance here.  Battle is between Patrick and Cahill.  Hopefully, economy will improve enough for Patrick to hold on.  Plus Patrick has first rate operation with Plouffe.

18. SC-OPEN – McMaster (R) over Rex (D) by 5 – PPP polled this one 36-36.  Rex a strong candidate.  Republican lean carries McMaster to victory.  SC demographics slowly trending blue.

19. GA-OPEN – Oxendine (R) over Barnes (D) by 5 -Barnes a very strong candidate.  Again, Republican lean carries Oxendine.

20. WI-OPEN – Barrett (D) over Walker (R) by 7 – Superhero Barrett wins tough one through personal popularity in Milwaukee, which is also Walker’s base, and slight D lean of the state.

21. ME-OPEN – Mitchell (D) over Otten (R) by 8 – Wide open primaries on both sides.  Otten’s money carries him to nomination.  Senate President Mitchell is best candidate for D’s.

22. AL-OPEN – Byrne (R) over Davis (D) by 9 – Davis has a respectable showing, but comes up well short.  It’s still Alabama.

23. IA-Culver – Culver (D) over Vander Plaats (R) by 10 – Branstad chickens out or loses primary to winger Vander Plaats.  That’s the tougher part of the equation for Branstad given IA’s conservative Republican base.  Culver holds on easily over the winger.

24. IL-Quinn – Quinn (D) over Brady (R) by 11 – Second tier Republican field here.  Should not be much of a problem for Quinn.

25. OH-Strickland – Strickland (D) over Kasich (R) by 12 – Kasich is too conservative for Ohio.  Strickland has done about as well as he can in this strapped state.

26. SD-OPEN – Knudson (R) over Heidepriem (D) by 13 – Decent D challenger, but it won’t be a D year and the state leans R.

27. MD-O’Malley – O’Malley (D) over Hogan (R) by 18 – Ehrlich will not run.  Maryland has only gotten bluer, although O’Malley is not the most popular guy in the world.

28. NV-Gibbons* – Sandoval (R) over Reid (D) by 18 – What a wasted opportunity with Rory Reid.  DGA apparently expecting no primary.  For shame.  Somebody save us from the double Reid!

29. OR-OPEN – Kitzhaber (D) over Atkinson (R) by 19 – Nobody beats Kitzhaber here.  Great news that he is running.

30. NM-OPEN – Denish (D) over Martinez (R) by 20 – Denish polling strong against higher tier candidates – Pearce and Wilson – who aren’t running.  Should beat Martinez.

31. AK-Parnell – Parnell (R) over Berkowitz (D) by 21 – Don’t know why so many top Dems trying for this one, but there are only so many places to move up in Alaska.  Parnell popularity at 67-8 according to recent Hays poll.

32. CT-Rell – Rell (R) over Bysiewicz (D) by 24 – Decent challenger but Rell still too popular.

33. TX-Perry* – Hutchison (R) over Schieffer (D) by 26 – KBH narrowly beats Perry and crunches Schieffer by more than what Perry would have.

34. UT-Herbert – Herbert (R) over Generic D by 28 – No prominent D has stepped up.  Overwhelming R lean of the state prevails.

35. ID-Otter – Otter (R) over Generic D by 31 – No significant D has stepped up.  Otter probably not vulnerable if one did.

36. NH-Lynch – Lynch (D) over Generic R by 34 – Lynch cruises again.

37. NY-Paterson* – Cuomo (D) over Lazio (R) by 35 – Lazio humiliated out of politics.  What the hell is Paterson doing, by the way?  

38. AR-Beebe – Beebe (D) over Generic R by 37 – Beebe very, very popular in reddening state.

39. NE-Heineman – Heineman over Generic D by 41 – Smooth sailing for Heineman.

So I’ve heard it posited here on SSP that 2010 will be a Republican wave in the South, with a stalemate in the rest of the country.  While I do think a Southern wave is coming for the Republicans, I do not think it is coming in 2010.  Rather, it will come over time as entrenched Southern Democrats like Gene Taylor, Allen Boyd, John Tanner, Lincoln Davis, Bart Gordon, etc. retire, leaving open seats.  There is no reason to believe that these types of entrenched incumbents are going to lose in significant numbers in 2010, nor is there reason so far to believe any of them are going to retire in 2010.  In fact, for 2010, it does not appear that there are a lot of juicy Southern targets for the Republicans.  

Here is the geographical distribution of the 2010 Frontline Democrats, along with the three competitive open seats (PA-07, NH-02, and LA-03):

NORTHEAST (13)

CT-04 – Himes

MD-01 – Kratovil

NH-01 – Shea-Porter

NH-02 – OPEN

NJ-03 – Adler

NY-13 – McMahon

NY-20 – Murphy

NY-24 – Arcuri

NY-25 – Maffei

NY-29 – Massa

PA-03 – Dahlkemper

PA-07 – OPEN

PA-10 – Carney

SOUTH (11)

AL-02 – Bright

AL-05 – Griffith

FL-08 – Grayson

FL-24 – Kosmas

LA-03 – OPEN

MS-01 – Childers

NC-08 – Kissell

TX-23 – Rodriguez

VA-02 – Nye

VA-05 – Periello

VA-11 – Connolly

MIDWEST (11)

IL-11 – Halvorson

IL-14 – Foster

IN-09 – Hill

IA-03 – Boswell

MI-07 – Schauer

MI-09 – Peters

OH-01 – Driehaus

OH-15 – Kilroy

OH-16 – Boccieri

OH-18 – Space

WI-08 – Kagen

WEST (10)

AZ-01 – Kirkpatrick

AZ-05 – Mitchell

AZ-08 – Giffords

CA-11 – McNerney

CO-04 – Markey

ID-01 – Minnick

NV-03 – Titus

NM-01 – Heinrich

NM-02 – Teague

OR-05 – Schrader

The DCCC is not trying to protect entrenched incumbents in the South (even Chet Edwards amazingly).  Rather, the DCC believes that the seats it needs to defend are widespread, largely because the Dems’ recent gains have been widespread and therefore the least entrenched Dem congressmen are widespread.  In fact, the plurality of anticipated, competitive seats are in the Northeast, the Democratic sweet spot.  I think the DCCC is protecting the right incumbents, give or take.

While I could see as many as eight of the ten Southern, Frontline Democrats losing, plus the open seat in LA-03, that does not a wave make unless there are additional gains elsewhere.

In summary, for 2010, the least entrenched incumbents are scattered all over America.  Therefore, if there is a Republican wave, it will likely be scattered all over America, just like 1994.  I just do not see the opportunity for a Southern wave this time around.

According to the natural order of things, 2010 should be a good year for the Republicans.  However, they seem determined to drive the crazy train off the cliff instead of sitting down, shutting up, and letting nature take its course with a mid-term backlash against the incumbent party.  I’m predicting pretty good results for the Democrats.

SENATE

Democrats pick up six seats, Republicans none.  Great results for Dems driven by Repub retirements and a circular firing squad primary in Pennsylvania.

DEMOCRATIC PICKUPS:

FL – OPEN (Martinez) – My Mayor Pam Iorio runs and takes it to the house against Vern Buchanan.  Crist does not run.

MO – OPEN (Bond) – Robin Carnahan beats Roy Blunt.

NH – OPEN (Gregg) – Paul Hodes beats who knows what Republican.  Pick up the fundraising, though, dude.

NC – Burr – Roy Cooper takes out the ATM bandit.

OH – OPEN (Voinovich) – Lee Fisher beats Rob Portman.

PA – OPEN (Specter) – Pat Toomey beats Specter.  Joe Sestak changes his mind about running and destroys Toomey.

OTHER RACES OF INTEREST:

CO – Bennet – Bennet holds on with surprising comfort.  Repubs struggle to find a strong candidate.

CT – Dodd – Dodd stubbornly stays in the race, wins nailbiter over Rob Simmons.

DE – OPEN (Kaufman) – Beau Biden wins easily.  Castle does not run.

IL – OPEN (Burris) – Giannoulias beats Burris in the primary, cruises in the general.

KY – OPEN (Bunning) – Bunning drops out.  Trey Grayson squeeks past Jack Conway in the general.  Ben Chandler does not run.

LA – Vitter – Diaper Dave wins primary over porn star and wins general comfortably.  It’s always OK if you’re a Republican in LA these days.

NV – Reid – Repubs can’t find a strong candidate.  Reid holds on comfortably.

OK – OPEN (Coburn) – Coburn retires (it’s more fun being an M.D.), but Repubs hold on anyway.

HOUSE

Democrats gain five seats and lose one, for a net pickup of four.  Dem fundraising looks great.  I’m seeing a lot of incumbents winning, with Dem gains driven by Repub open seats.  

DEMOCRATIC PICKUPS

FL-10 – OPEN (Young) – Young retires (see miserable fundraising numbers).  Strong candidate Charlie Justice wins swing district.

IL-10 – OPEN (Kirk) – Kirk runs for Senate.  Democrat wins this heavily Dem district

LA-02 – Cao – Cao is destroyed by a prominent Democrat, perhaps Mayor Nagin.  This is no toss-up, Charlie Cook.

PA-06 – Gerlach – Gerlach taken out by Dem in what has become a heavily Dem district.

VA-10 – OPEN (Wolf)- Wolf retires (see miserable fundraising numbers).  Democrat squeeks by in this swing district.

REPUBLICAN PICKUP

ID-01 – Minnick – Sali defeated in primary.  Stronger Repub too much for Minnick to handle.

GOVERNORS

Democrats pick up five seats.  Republicans pick up five also, for a total wash.  

DEMOCRATIC PICKUPS

AZ – Brewer – Superhero Terry Goddard takes out the inept, flailing socialist tax hiker Jan Brewer.  I CHANGED THIS AFTER BEING CONVINCED BY PEOPLE SMARTER THAN ME THAT I AM WRONG.  

CA – OPEN (Schwartzenegger) – Dem partisan edge enough to carry Dem candidate, whomever it is.

HI – OPEN (Lingle) – Same story.  Dem partisan edge too much for Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona.

NV – Gibbons – Monumentally unpopular Gibbons loses to some member of the strong Democratic bench.

RI – OPEN (Carcieri) – Repub Laffey steers enough Repub votes away from Indy Chafee for Democrat to squeek by.

REPUBLICAN PICKUPS:

KS – OPEN (Sebelius) – With incoming Gov Parkinson unwilling to run as incumbent, partisan lean is too much.

OK – OPEN (Henry) – Dems have good candidates, but the partisan lean seems too much here.

TN – OPEN (Bredesen) – Tough egg for Dems these days.  Predict Republicans win fairly close race.

VA – OPEN (Kaine) – AG’s are tough to beat.  Unfortunate scandal for Moran this week, and I don’t think McAuliffe can win.  Mr. Deeds?  Probably not going to win the primary.

WY – OPEN (Freudenthal) – I don’t expect Freudenthal to go for the third term.  Partisan lean way too much.

OTHER RACES OF INTEREST:

GA – OPEN (Perdue) – Republican staves off tough challenge.

MI – OPEN (Granholm) – Dem squeeks by on partisan edge.  

MN – Pawlenty – Pawlenty wins a close one.

NJ – Corzine – Corzine squeeks by again by going deep into his piggy bank.

PA – OPEN (Rendell) – Western PA Dem (Onorato or Wagner) beats Repub Tom Corbett by about 5.

VT – Douglas – Douglas wins a narrow plurality in a three-way race.  Legislature respects the will of the voters and gives him the seat.

Based on the very scientific standard of my subjective opinion.

1. Vermont – Leahy (D) & Sanders (I)

2. Rhode Island – Reed (D) & Whitehouse (D)

3. Minnesota – Klobuchar (D) & Franken (D)

4. Oregon – Wyden (D) & Merkley (D)

5. Massachusetts – Kennedy (D) & Kerry (D)

6. Virginia – Webb (D) & Warner (D)

7. Wisconsin – Kohl (D) & Feingold (D)

8. New York – Schumer (D) & Gillibrand (D)

9. Maryland – Mikulski (D) & Cardin (D)

10. North Dakota – Conrad (D) & Dorgan (D)

11. New Mexico – Bingaman (D) & T. Udall (D)

12. Colorado – M. Udall (D) & Bennet (D)

13. California – Boxer (D) & Feinstein (D)

14. N. Jersey – Lautenberg (D) & Menendez (D)

15. Hawaii – Inouye (D) & Akaka (D)

16. Washington – Murray (D) & Cantwell (D)

17. Iowa – Harkin (D) & Grassley (R)

18. Montana – Baucus (D) & Tester (D)

19. Delaware – Carper (D) & Kaufman (D)

20. Michigan – Levin (D) & Stabenow (D)

21. W. Virginia – Byrd (D) & Rockefeller (D)

22. Ohio – Brown (D) & Voinovich (R)

23. Missouri – McCaskill (D) & Bond (R)

24. Illinois – Durbin (D) & Burris (D)

25. Arkansas – Pryor (D) & Lincoln (D)

26. Alaska – Begich (D) & Murkowski (R)

27. New Hampshire – Shaheen (D) & Gregg (R)

28. Pennsylvania – Casey (D) & Specter (R)

29. South Dakota – Johnson (D) & Thune (R)

30. Connecticut – Dodd (D) & Lieberman (I)

31. Maine – Snow (R) & Collins (R)

32. Indiana – Bayh (D) & Lugar (R)

33. Nebraska – Ben Nelson (D) & Johanns (R)

34. Nevada – Reid (D) & Ensign (R)

35. North Carolina – Hagan (D) & Burr (R)

36. Florida – Bill Nelson (D) & Martinez (R)

37. Tennessee – Alexander (R) & Corker (R)

38. Louisiana – Landrieu (D) & Vitter (R)

39. South Carolina – Graham (R) & DeMint (R)

40. Mississippi – Cochran (R) & Wicker (R)

41. Idaho – Crapo (R) & Risch (R)

42. Georgia – Isakson (R) & Chambliss (R)

43. Arizona – McCain (R) & Kyl (R)

44. Texas – Hutchison (R) & Cornyn (R)

45. Wyoming – Enzi (R) & Barrasso (R)

46. Utah – Hatch (R) & Bennett (R)

47. Kansas – Roberts (R) & Brownback (R)

48. Alabama – Shelby (R) & Sessions (R)

49. Kentucky – McConnell (R) & Bunning (R)

50. Oklahoma – Coburn (R) & Inhofe (R)