spiderdem – Page 3 – Swing State Project

Election 2010 – Where can Obama help?

The answer, unforunately, is that there are relatively few places with competitive races where Obama can help, given his modest approval ratings and unpopularity in many pockets of the country. Below is a list of states and districts where Obama exceeded 60% of the vote in 2008. If I were a candidate, I would only want an Obama visit in these places. It would be a potential risk just about anywhere else unless things really turn around.

1. LA-02 – Cedric Richmond (D) v. Joseph Cao (R)

2008 Result: 74-25 Obama

If there’s a district Obama can outright win for a candidate, this is it.

2. HI-GOV – Neil Abercrombie (D) v. Duke Aiona (R)

2008 Result: 72-27 Obama

Latest Job Approval: 72-26

Obama should make the trip for one big event.

3. HI-01 – Colleen Hanabusa (D) v. Charles Djou (R)

2008 Result: 70-28 Obama

Make it happen, Barack.

4. VT-GOV – Deb Markowitz (D) v. Brian Dubie (R)

2008 Result: 67-30 Obama

Latest Job Approval: 62-37

Room for the Democratic nominee to grow here, and Obama can help.

5. NY-GOV, NY-SEN(B) – Andrew Cuomo (D) v. Rick Lazio (D); Kirsten Gillibrand (D) v. Joe DioGuardi (R)

2008 Result: 63-36 Obama

Latest Job Approval: 61-39

New York statewide candidates may not need help.

6. CA-GOV, CA-SEN – Jerry Brown (D) v. Meg Whitman (R); Barbara Boxer (D) v. Carly Fiorina (R)

2008 Result: 61-37 Obama

Latest Job Approval: 59-39

Obama needs to come up huge in these races.

7. MD-GOV – Martin O’Malley (D) v. Bob Ehrlich (R)

2008 Result: 62-36 Obama

Latest Job Approval: 56-43

Obama can help a lot in Baltimore and DC.

8. MA-GOV – Deval Patrick (D) v. Charlie Baker (R)

2008 Result: 62-36 Obama

Latest Job Approval: 56-43

You can bet on Obama helping out his old friend.

9. RI-GOV – Frank Caprio (D) v. Lincoln Chafee (I)

2008 Result: 63-35 Obama

Latest Job Approval: 55-43

Would Caprio want the help? Would Obama campaign against supporter Chafee?

10. IL-GOV, IL-SEN – Pat Quinn (D) v. Bill Brady (R); Alexi Giannoulias (D) v. Mark Kirk (R)

2008 Result: 62-37 Obama

Latest Job Approval: 54-46

Chicago turnout will be everything for these guys. Obama needs to get there a lot.

11. DE-SEN, DE-AL – Chris Coons (D) v. Mike Castle (R); John Carney (D) v. Glen Urquhart (R)

2008 Result: 62-37 Obama

Latest Job Approval: 54-46

Biden a better fit here obviously.

12. OR-01 – David Wu (D) v. Rob Cornilles (R)

2008 Result: 61-36 Obama

Obama had tremendous Portland area enthusiasm in 2008.

13. IL-10 – Dan Seals (D) v. Bob Dold(!) (R)

2008 Result: 61-38 Obama

Obama should be able to help in Chicago area district.

14. CT-GOV, CT-SEN – Ned Lamont (D) v. Tom Foley (R), Richard Blumenthal (D) v. Linda McMahon (R)

2008 Result: 61-38 Obama

Latest Job Approval: 53-42

Blumenthal doesn’t need the help; Obama will probably only be able to help Lamont a little.

Super Speculative House Predictions!

So this is my most ambitious and most speculative exercise to date. Below are my predictions for the TWO WAY vote in every House race that I expect to be within 20% (plus three pickups in AR-02, LA-03, and TN-06 that I expect to be greater than 20%). Unlike my previous efforts, this is almost entirely unscientific and subjective, except that I have tried to make a reasonable distribution of margins of victories (not too many close ones, not too many blowouts).

Overall, I have a net of 25 seats to the Republicans, with 29 Republican pickups and 4 Democratic ones. Pickups are in bold.

AK-AL – Young (R) 59, Crawford (D) 40 – Crawford underfunded and AK too red.

AL-02 – Bright (D) 50.3, Roby (R) 49.7 – Bright scrapes by with conservative record.

AL-05 – Brooks (R) 59, Raby (D) 41 – Northern Alabama going red fast.

AR-01 – Causey 50 (D), Crawford (R) 49 – AR Dems able to focus here for lack of other competitive races.

AR-02 – Griffin (R) 60, Elliott (D) 40 – This one was decided by the Dem primary.

AZ-01 – Kirkpatrick (D) 53, Gosar (R) 46 – Republican field somewhat unimpressive.

AZ-03 – Quayle (R) 59, Hulburd (D) 41 – R+9 open seat too much to ask this cycle.

AZ-05 – Mitchell (D) 51, Schweikert (R) 48 – Rematch of 2008, where Mitchell won by 9.

AZ-08 – Giffords (D) 52, Paton (R) 47 – Paton a strong candidate, but Giffords has lots of $$$.

CA-03 – Lungren (R) 55, Bera (D) 44 – R+6 seat too tough in this environment.

CA-11 – McNerney (D) 52, Harmer (R) 48 – McNerney wins a squeaker. Bluing part of Cali.

CA-18 – Cardoza (D) 56, Berryhill (R) 43 – Cardoza needs to raise more $$$.

CA-20 – Costa (D) 59, Vidak (R) 41 – No problem for Costa.

CA-44 – Calvert (R) 59, Hedrick (D) 41 – Calvert not taken by surprise this time.

CA-45 – Bono-Mack (R) 58, Pougnet (D) 41 – Bono-Mack prevails in favorable environment.

CA-47 – Sanchez (D) 58, Tran (R) 41 – Have never taken this one too seriously.

CO-03 – Salazar (D) 54, Tipton (R) 46 – Substantial $$$ advantage for Salazar.

CO-04 – Gardner (R) 53, Markey (D) 47 – Tough HCR vote in this district.

CO-07 – Perlmutter (D) 56, Frazier (R) 43 – D+4 district. Perlmutter has fundraised well.

CT-04 – Himes (D) 56, Debicella (R) 44 – Himes a super fundraiser.

CT-05 – Murphy (D) 56, Caliguiri (R) 43 – Murphy notches relatively comfortable win.

DE-AL – Carney (D) 55, Urquhart (R) 45 – Glad Carney got in the race early.

FL-02 – Southerland (R) 51, Boyd (D) 48 – HCR vote seals Boyd’s fate.

FL-08 – Grayson 50 (D), Webster (R) 49 – Grayson spends huge to win.

FL-10 – Young (R) 59, Justice (D) 40 – Poor Charlie Justice. Fundraising embarrassing.

FL-12 – Ross (R) 57, Edwards (D) 43 – Once-promising race goes by the wayside due to environment.

FL-22 – Klein (D) 53, West (R) 47 – West has raised tons of $$$, but thankfully Klein has too.

FL-24 – Miller 50 (R), Kosmas (D) 49 – Another tough HCR vote for the district.

FL-25 – Rivera (R) 55, Garcia (D) 44 – Rivera had monster first fundraising quarter.

GA-02 – Bishop (D) 56, Keown (R) 43 – Bishop is pretty entrenched in this heavily AA district.

GA-08 – Marshall (D) 54, Scott (R) 45 – Scott starting from scratch in fundraising.

HI-01 – Hanabusa (D) 54, Djou (R) 46 – Djou can beat two Democrats but not one.

IA-03 – Boswell (D) 54, Zaun (R) 45 – Zaun has a lot of catching up to do in fundraising.

ID-01 – Minnick 50.4 (D), Labrador (R) 49.6 – Tough year to rely on crossover votes.

IL-08 – Bean (D) 58, Walsh (R) 41 – This one could be worse. Walsh is a joke.

IL-10 – Seals (D) 50.1, Dold (R) 49.9 – Seals squeaks by in 20%+ Obama district.

IL-11 – Kinzinger (R) 53, Halvorson (D) 47 – Kinzinger an outstanding candidate.

IL-14 – Hultgren 50 (R), Foster (D) 49 – Top of the ticket hurts Foster.

IL-17 – Hare (D) 58, Schilling (R) 42 – Schilling raising decent money in D+3 seat.

IN-02 – Donnelly (D) 55, Walorski (R) 45 – Jacky too wacky to win.

IN-08 – Bucshon (R) 52, Van Haaften (D) 47 – Van Haaften a good candidate, but tough district.

IN-09 – Young 50 (R), Hill (D) 49 – Another tough HCR vote.

KS-03 – Yoder (R) 55, Moore (D) 45 – Big fundraising head start for Republicans.

KS-04 – Pompeo (R) 59, Goyle (D) 40 – Way too red for this cycle.

KY-03 – Yarmuth (D) 59, Lally (R) 40 – Lally only semi-serious competition.

KY-06 – Chandler (D) 54, Barr (R) 45 – Barr is a decent candidate, but Chandler should win comfortably.

LA-02 – Richmond (D) 58, Cao (R) 41 – Huge Dem lean too much for Cao.

LA-03 – Downer (R) 61, Sangisetty (D) 38 – Easy pickup in Cajun country.

MA-05 – Tsongas (D) 59, Golnik (R) 40 – Golnik has raised some decent $$$.

MA-10 – Keating (D) 55, Perry (R) 45 – Don’t think this hyped race will be all that close.

MD-01 – Harris (R) 53, Kratovil (D) 46 – Really tough district for Kratovil to defend.

MI-01 – Allen (R) 52, McDowell (D) 47 – Tough district for Dems to hold.

MI-07 – Walberg (R) 52, Schauer (D) 48 – Schauer barely got by Walberg in 2008.

MI-09 – Peters (D) 55, Welday (R) 44 – Peters has huge financial edge.

MN-01 – Walz (D) 57, Demmer (R) 42 – Big financial edge for Walz.

MN-06 – Bachmann (R) 57, Clark (D) 43 – PPP poll did not bode well for Clark.

MO-03 – Carnahan (D) 56, Martin (R) 43 – Martin has raised some serious $$$.

MO-04 – Skelton (D) 54, Stouffer (R) 45 – Tough race but Skelton pulls through comfortably.

MS-01 – Nunnellee (R) 53, Childers (D) 46 – Wish Nunnellee had to deal with a runoff on Tuesday.

MS-04 – Taylor (D) 57, Palazzo (R) 43 – Taylor very well entrenched in incredibly red district.

NC-02 – Etheridge (D) 58, Ellmers (R) 42 – Don’t think the fisticuffs will have a tremendous impact here.

NC-07 – McIntyre (D) 58, Pantano (R) 41 – McIntyre has gone as far as any Dem to act Republican.

NC-08 – Kissell (D) 54, Johnson (R) 46 – PPP polling suggests Kissell will be OK here.

NC-11 – Shuler (D) 55, Miller (R) 44 – Shuler a very good fit for the district.

ND-AL – Berg 51 (R), Pomeroy (D) 49 – Hoeven coattails carry Berg.

NE-02 – Terry (R) 57, White (D) 43 – Too much to ask for in this cycle.

NH-01 – Guinta (R) 50.2, Shea-Porter (D) 49.8 – Tough year for Dems in NH.

NH-02 – Bass (R) 52, Kuster (D) 48 – Bass has strong polling leads.

NJ-03 – Adler (D) 54, Runyan (R) 45 – Runyan better at pass blocking than politics.

NJ-12 – Holt (D) 56, Sipprelle (R) 43 – Sipprelle has just about matched Holt fundraising.

NM-01 – Heinrich (D) 56, Barela (R) 44 – Heinrich should hold on in Dem district.

NM-02 – Pearce (R) 51, Teague (D) 48 – Tough district, tough opponent.

NV-03 – Heck (R) 52, Titus (D) 48 – Polls show Titus down.

NY-01 – Bishop (D) 54, Altschuler (R) 46 – Altschuler spending scary money.

NY-13 – McMahon (D) 55, Allegretti (R) 44 – Republicans in this district are a mess.

NY-19 – Hall (D) 53, Hayworth (R) 46 – Hall needs to get on the fundraising.

NY-20 – Murphy (D) 57, Gibson (R) 42 – Murphy lucky to have lackluster opponent.

NY-23 – Owens (D) 53, Hoffman (R) 46 – Owens widens lead in re-match.

NY-24 – Hanna (R) 52, Arcuri (D) 47 – Arcuri a poor candidate and Hanna a good one.

NY-25 – Maffei (D) 58, Buerkle (R) 42 – Maffei should be OK against subpar opposition.

NY-29 – Reed (R) 58, Zeller (D) 42 – Easy pickup for the GOP.

OH-01 – Chabot (R) 56, Driehaus (D) 44 – Afraid the awful polls are right on this one.

OH-06 – Wilson (D) 58, Johnson (R) 42 – Wilson has not had any problem in this Appalachia district.

OH-12 – Tiberi (R) 59, Brooks (D) 41 – Big financial edge for Tiberi.

OH-13 – Sutton (D) 55, Ganley (R) 45 – $$$ isn’t everything. Sutton wins Dem district.

OH-15 – Stivers (R) 56, Kilroy (D) 44 – Kilroy only swept in because of strong 2008 environment.

OH-16 – Renacci (R) 53, Boccieri (D) 46 – Tough HCR vote for Boccieri in this district.

OH-18 – Space 51 (D), Gibbs (R) 49 – Huge Space fundraising edge.

OR-01 – Wu (D) 57, Cornilles (R) 43 – Should be enough Dem votes here for Wu to get by pretty easily.

OR-04 – DeFazio (D) 58, Robinson (R) 42 – Only a D+1 district, but no problem for DeFazio.

OR-05 – Schrader (D) 56, Bruun (R) 44 – Swing district, but Schrader should win.

PA-03 – Dahlkemper (D) 54, Kelly (R) 46 – Republicans failed to land big-time opponent here.

PA-04 – Altmire (D) 55, Rothfus (R) 45 – Altmire in a decent position for re-election.

PA-06 – Gerlach (R) 57, Trivedi (D) 43 – This isn’t the year to finally take out Gerlach.

PA-07 – Meehan 51 (R), Lentz (D) 49 – Meehan financial advantage gets him through.

PA-08 – Murphy (D) 52, Fitzpatrick (R) 48 – Worried about this one. Fitzpatrick raising $$$ fast.

PA-10 – Carney 51 (D), Marino (R) 49 – Carney a good politician with a strong financial edge.

PA-11 – Barletta (R) 50.4, Kanjorski (D) 49.6 – Kanjorski barely got by in 2008.

PA-12 – Critz (D) 53, Burns (R) 47 – Critz takes the re-match.

PA-15 – Dent (R) 55, Callahan (D) 44 – Tough to take out Republican incumbents this cycle.

PA-16 – Pitts (R) 59, Herr (D) 41 – PPP showed a 9-point race here.

PA-17 – Holden (D) 57, Argall (R) 42 – Holden survived 1994. He’ll survive this.

SC-02 – Wilson (R) 59, Miller (D) 40 – “You lie!” outburst goes unpunished.

SC-05 – Spratt (D) 51, Mulvaney (R) 48 – Spratt barely holds on.

SD-AL – Herseth-Sandlin (D) 52, Noem (R) 48 – Don’t see the fireable offense for Herseth-Sandlin.

TN-04 – Davis (D) 53, Bailey (R) 47 – Republican internal had Davis up 11 in March.

TN-06 – Tracy (R) 63, Leming (D) 36 – Dems giving this one away.

TN-08 – Herron (D) 50.1, Fincher (R) 49.9 – Strong candidate squeaks by in tough district.

TX-17 – Flores (R) 53, Edwards (D) 47 – R lean of the district finally catches up to Edwards.

TX-23 – Rodriguez (D) 54, Canseco (R) 46 – Moderately competitive race for Ciro.

TX-27 – Ortiz (D) 58, Farenthold (R) 41 – Not much trouble for Ortiz.

UT-02 – Matheson (D) 57, Philpot (R) 42 – Matheson has enormous financial advantage.

VA-02 – Rigell (R) 51, Nye (D) 48 – One of those districts that sweeps in and out with environment.

VA-05 – Hurt 51 (R), Periello (D) 49 – Periello needs Teabagger to draw from Hurt.

VA-09 – Boucher (D) 54, Griffith (R) 45 – Big financial advantage for Boucher.

VA-11 – Connolly (D) 52, Fimian (R) 47 – Fimian ran reasonably strong in 2008, losing by 11.

WA-02 – Larsen (D) 57, Koster (R) 42 – Koster reasonably well-funded.

WA-03 – Heck 51 (D), Herrera (R) 49 – Heck has early financial edge.

WA-08 – Reichert (R) 56, DelBene (D) 44 – Too tough a year to beat Reichert.

WI-03 – Kind (D) 57, Kanapke (R) 42 – Big financial edge for Kind.

WI-07 – Lassa (D) 51, Duffy (R) 48 – Maybe it’s just hard for me to take reality TV stars seriously.

WI-08 – Kagen (D) 52, Ribble (R) 47 – Kagen goes into his pockets to win another tough race.

WV-01 – Oliviero (D) 50, McKinley (R) 49 – Incredibly conservative Oliviero squeaks by.

Doubling Down on Absurd Speculation – Predictions for the Rest of the Races

In my last diary, I predicted all of the Senate and Governor races for which the primaries have concluded. I indicated that guessing at the winners of future primaries was too speculative even for me. I have come to the conclusion, “Why the hell not?” So here they are. And I’m only tracking the two-way vote unless otherwise indicated (FL-GOV, FL-SEN, MA-GOV, MN-GOV, RI-GOV).

Overall I am seeing a net loss of three seats in the Senate (we lose AR, CO, DE, IN, ND, and NV, and pick up FL, KY, and MO) and one governorship (we lose IA, IL, KS, OK, PA, TN, and WY, and pick up CA, CT, FL, HI, MN, and RI). Pickups are in bold. Any races that are not accounted for below are in my previous diary:

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

AK-SEN – Murkowski (R) 68, McAdams (D) 32 – Complete mismatch.

AZ-SEN – McCain (R) 59, Glassman (D) 41 – McCain consolidates Republicans.

CO-SEN – Buck (R) 53, Bennet (D) 47 – CO more conservative than most think despite Obama win.

CT-SEN – Blumenthal (D) 57, McMahon (R) 43 – Comfortable win for Blumenthal.

DE-SEN – Castle (R) 52, Coons (D) 47 – Coons grows on DE electorate, but not enough.

FL-SEN – Crist (I) 40, Rubio (R) 39, Greene (D) 20 – Crist caucuses with Dems.

GA-SEN – Isakson (R) 59, Thurmond (D) 41 – Easy win for Isakson.

HI-SEN – Inouye (D) 67, Roco (R) 33 – No problem here.

KS-SEN – Moran (R) 62, Schollenberger (D) 38 – May be generous to Schollengerber.

LA-SEN – Vitter (R) 53, Melancon (D) 47 – Melancon is handling BP crisis well, but LA too red.

MD-SEN – Mikulski (D) 60, Wargotz (R) 40 – Comfortable win for Mikulski.

MO-SEN – Carnahan (D) 51, Blunt (R) 48 – Don’t think much of Blunt as a candidate.

NC-SEN – Burr (R) 54, Marshall (D) 46 – Love Marshall but this is not the year in NC.

NH-SEN – Ayotte (R) 55, Hodes (D) 44 – NH seems to love Ayotte for some reason.

NY-SEN (A) – Schumer (D) 64, Townsend (R) 35 – Routine win for Schumer.

NY-SEN (B) – Gillibrand (D) 60, Malpass (R) 40 – No problem for Gillibrand.

OK-SEN – Coburn (R) unopposed

UT-SEN – Bridgewater (R) 65, Granato (D) 35 – It’s Utah.

VT-SEN – Leahy (D) 62, Britton (R) 38 – It’s Vermont.

WA-SEN – Murray (D) 52, Rossi (R) 48 – Rossi a three-time loser.

WI-SEN – Feingold (D) 53, Johnson (D) 46 – Feingold will win another tough race.

AL-GOV – Bentley (R) 56, Sparks (D) 44 – Alabama too tough this year.

AK-GOV – Parnell (R) 62, Berkowitz (D) 38 – Parnell very popular.

AZ-GOV – Brewer (R) 52, Goddard (D) 48 – One of the most interesting races in the country.

CO-GOV – Hickenlooper (D) 51, McInnis (R) 49 – Hickenlooper popular enough to overcome environment.

CT-GOV – Lamont (D) 52, Foley (R) 47 – Dem lean of the state gives Lamont the edge.

FL-GOV – Sink (D) 44, Scott (R) 43, Chiles (I) 13 – Scott’s emergence is a gift to the Democrats.

GA-GOV – Oxendine (R) 51, Barnes (D) 48 – Barnes runs as well as you can in GA this year.

HI-GOV – Abercrombie (D) 57, Aiona (R) 43 – Either Dem should win this comfortably.

KS-GOV – Brownback (R) 60, Holland (D) 40 – Brownback a lightning rod, but will win easily.

MA-GOV – Patrick (D) 43, Baker (R) 38, Cahill (I) 17 – Patrick seems to be peeling away Cahill voters.

MD-GOV – O’Malley (D) 51, Ehrlich (R) 48 – Huge Dem lean in Maryland has only gotten bigger.

MI-GOV – Bernero (D) 52, Hoekstra (R) 48 – Bernero is a unique, outsider candidate who can catch on.

MN-GOV – Dayton (D) 45, Emmer (R) 40, Horner (I) 15 – Dems still have the edge in MN.

NH-GOV – Lynch (D) 55, Stephen (R) 44 – No 50-point margin for Lynch this time.

NY-GOV – Cuomo (D) 67, Lazio (R) 33 – Hopefully Cuomo helps downballot candidates.

OK-GOV – Fallin (R) 55, Edmondson (D) 45 – Edmondson runs as well as you can in OK this year.

RI-GOV – Caprio (D) 43, Chafee (I) 40, Robitaille (R) 17 – Caprio $$$ edge too much.

SC-GOV – Haley (R) 53, Sheheen (D) 47 – Have a feeling Haley will take more hits, but win.

TN-GOV – Haslam (R) 56, McWherter (D) 44 – TN too tough this year.

UT-GOV – Herbert (R) 67, Corroon (D) 33 – Easy win for Herbert.

VT-GOV – Dubie (R) 52, Markowitz (D) 48 – Dubie very popular up there.

WI-GOV – Barrett (D) 50.1, Walker (R) 49.9 – Good matchup between two good candidates.

WY-GOV – Micheli (R) 63, Petersen (D) 37 – Bless Petersen’s heart for running here.

THE Math – Ridiculously premature, specific election predictions.

So I’ve made some predictions about 2010, using 2004 and 2006 partisan turnout data and ascribing percentages to each candidate for each party affiliation in my own, subjective way. The polling industry has failed us this cycle, so I’m ignoring the polls and going with my gut. I am only predicting races where the primaries are over, as I did not want to guess who is going to win primaries. That would be too speculative even for me! And obviously, these are predictions of the two-way vote. Pickups are in bold.

AL-SEN – Shelby (R) 65, Barnes (D) 35 – No trouble for Shelby.

AR-SEN – Boozman (R) 56, Lincoln (D) 43 – Very little shot for Lincoln here.

CA-SEN – Boxer (D) 51, Fiorina (R) 48 – Boxer is a flawed candidate, but she will hold on.

IA-SEN – Grassley (R) 57, Conlin (D) 43 – Conlin a strong challenger, but not this year.

ID-SEN – Crapo (R) 75, Sullivan (D) 24 – Sullivan is not a serious challenger.

IL-SEN – Giannoulias (D) 50.2, Kirk (R) 49.8 – Good thing “none of the above” not on the ballot.

IN-SEN – Coates (R) 53, Ellsworth (D) 46 – Too tough a year for Ellsworth to get over the hump.

KY-SEN – Conway (D) 50, Paul (R) 49 – Paul makes more unforced errors; Conway consolidates Dems.

ND-SEN – Hoeven (R) 67, Potter (D) 32 – Easy pickup.

NV-SEN – Angle (R) 50, Reid (D) 49 – Harry Reid is just THAT unpopular. We seem to be forgetting that.

OH-SEN – Portman (R) 51, Fisher (D) 49 – Portman cash advantage proves too much.

OR-SEN – Wyden (D) 56, Huffman (R) 44 – No cakewalk, but Wyden stays on his game and wins.

PA-SEN – Sestak (D) 52, Toomey (R) 48 – PA says no to Santorum II.

SC-SEN – Demint (R) 75, Greene (D) 25 – Please go away, Alvin!

SD-SEN – Thune (R) unopposed.

AR-GOV – Beebe (D) 64, Keet (R) 35 – Smooth sailing for Beebe.

CA-GOV – Brown (D) 52, Whitman (R) 48 – Whitman’s millions hard to overcome, but Brown can do it.

IA-GOV – Branstad (R) 60, Culver (D) 40 – Culver’s approvals are low and Branstad is just too tough.

ID-GOV – Otter (R) 60, Allred (D) 39 – Allred could compete in a different cycle.

IL-GOV – Brady (R) 52, Quinn (D) 48 – Quinn is VERY unpopular.

ME-GOV – Mitchell (D) 52, LePage (R) 47 – LePage a little too teabaggy for Maine.

NE-GOV – Heineman (R) 69, Lakers (D) 30 – Lakers a non-trivial candidate, but will not be close.

NM-GOV – Denish (D) 51, Martinez (R) 49 – Martinez steals some Hispanic Dems, but not enough.

NV-GOV – Sandoval (R) 59, Reid (D) 41 – Whose idea was it to get behind Rory Reid?

OH-GOV – Strickland (D) 50.4, Kasich (R) 49.6 – Don’t think much of Kasich as a candidate.

OR-GOV – Kitzhaber (D) 52, Dudley (R) 48 – This will be no cakewalk for Kitz, but he pulls through.

PA-GOV – Corbett (R) 52, Onorato (D) 48 – Onorato will grow on PA voters, but not enough.

SD-GOV – Daugaard (R) 56, Heidepreim (D) 44 – Heidepreim runs pretty strong in a tough year.

TX-GOV – Perry (R) 51, White (D) 49 – White wins Indies comfortably, but still not enough.

An objective ranking of competitive Democratic House seats.

Below is an objective ranking of SSP’s competitive Democratic House seats. This is similar to SSP’s “Vulnerability Index,” but adds cash on hand as a third factor in addition to PVI and 2008 margin of victory. I ranked the 96 Democratic seats identified by SSP according to these three categories, and averaged the rankings. It fits my intuitive sense of these races pretty well. The most important two factors it fails to consider are (1) polling and (2) candidate strength/name recognition. The rote application of my criteria created two obvious outliers: MS-04 (Taylor), which is way too high at 33, and NH-02 (OPEN), which is way too low at 85. Otherwise, it seemed to work pretty well. Here they are, with the two current, best-funded challengers for each party listed:

1. TN-06 – OPEN – Leming (D) v. Black (R) – Republicans have a massive $450K CoH head start, in addition to the district’s R+13 lean.

2. MD-01 – Kratovil (D) v. Harris (R) – Kratovil’s CoH advantage is only 1.47X in this R+13 district, which he won by <1% in 2008. Harris internal has Harris up big.

3. AR-01 – OPEN – Causey (D) v. Crawford (R) – Currently Dem and Rep CoH is very close, but that is only because Crawford has been in the race much longer than the Dems. R+8 district.

4. NY-29 – OPEN – Zeller (D) v. Reed (R) – Zeller starts off nearly $300K behind in CoH in this R+5 district.

5. AR-02 – OPEN – Wills (D) v. Griffin (R) – Griffin has a 1.82X CoH advantage, mostly because he has been in the race much longer than Wills. R+5 district.

6. LA-03 – OPEN – Sangisetty (D) v. Landry (R) -Sangisetty actually has a 1.43X CoH advantage, which would probably surprise most people. R+12 district. Still no announcement from Hunt Downer.

7. IN-08 – OPEN – Van Haaften (D) v. Bucshon (R) – Van Haaften has a 1.19X CoH advantage, but Bucshon has been in the race much longer. R+8 district.

8. AL-02 – Bright (D) v. Roby (R) – 3-to-1 Bright CoH advantage keeps this from being higher. Bright won this R+16 seat by <1% in 2008. Bright internal shows Bright way ahead.

9. ID-01 – Minnick (D) v. Ward (R) – 3-to-1 Minnick CoH advantage keeps this from being higher. Minnick won this R+18 district by 1% in 2008.

10. KS-03 – OPEN – Moore (D) v. Yoder (R) – Stephene Moore starts off with a nearly $500K CoH deficit in this R+3 district.

11. TN-08 – OPEN – Herron (D) v. Fincher (R) – Herron has 1.25X CoH advantage, but Fincher has been in the race much longer. R+6 district.

12. MI-01 – OPEN – Saltonstall (D) v. Benishek (R) – Neither of these will be their parties’ candidates. FWIW, Benishek has a 1.27X CoH advantage in this R+3 district.

13. NY-23 – Owens (D) v. Doheny (R) – Doheny has a 2.13X CoH advantage. Owens won this R+1 district by 5% in a 2009 special election.

14. OH-15 – Kilroy (D) v. Stivers (R) – CoH is dead even in this D+1 district, which Kilroy won by <1% over Stivers in 2008.

15. VA-05 – Periello (D) v. McKelvey (R) – Massive fundraising quarter gives Periello a 3-1 CoH advantage in this R+5 district, which he won by <1% in 2008. PPP shows tossup race with Hurt.

16. MS-01 – Childers (D) v. Nunnellee (R) – Childers has a 2.38X CoH advantage in this R+14 district, which he won by nearly 11% in 2008. Weird poll showed Childers slightly ahead.

17. NY-24 – Arcuri (D) v. Hanna (R) – Arcuri has only a 1.38X CoH advantage, even though Hanna only got into the race recently. Arcuri beat Hanna by 4% in 2008 in this R+2 district.

18. VA-02 – Nye (D) v. Rigell (R) – Nye has a 1.71X CoH advantage in this R+5 district, which he won by 5% over incumbent Thelma Drake in 2008.

19. NM-02 – Teague (D) v. Pearce (R) – Teague has a 1.31X CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which he won by 12% in 2008. Multiple polls show this race neck-and-neck.

20. PA-12 – VACANT – Critz (D) v. Burns (R) – Burns has a 1.18X CoH advantage in this R+1 district. Polling shows a toss-up in the special election.

21. PA-03 – Dahlkemper (D) v. Huber (R) – Dahlkemper has a 2.87X CoH advantage in this R+3 district. Her slim, 2.5% margin of victory over incumbent Phil English in 2008 keeps this high on the list.

22. AZ-05 – Mitchell (D) v. Schweikert (R) – Mitchell has a 2.27X CoH advantage in this R+5 district, which he won by nearly 10% over Schweikert in 2008.

23. MI-07 – Schauer (D) v. Rooney (R) – Schauer has a better than 3-1 CoH advantage in this R+2 district, which he won by 2% in 2008. Walberg internal has Walberg up.

24. OH-01 – Driehaus (D) v. Chabot (R) – Driehaus has a 1.14X CoH advantage in this D+1 district. Driehaus beat Chabot by 5% in 2008. Weird FDL poll showed Chabot up big.

25. WV-01 – Mollohan (D) v. McKinley (R) – CoH is dead even in this R+9 district. Mollohan was unopposed in 2008. Recent polling shows Mollohan has his hands full in the primary.

26. NH-01 – Shea-Porter (D) v. Guinta (R) – Shea-Porter has a 1.38X CoH advantage in this D+0 district, which she won by 6% over former Rep Jeb Bradley in 2008. Shea-Porter is lucky that Guinta is as poor a fundraiser as she is. PPP shows a tossup.

27. TN-04 – Davis (D) v. Bailey (R) – Davis has a 2.21X CoH advantage in this R+13 district, which he won by 21% in 2008. Davis’s fundraising is poor.

28. NY-19 – Hall (D) v. Hayworth (R) – Hayworth has a 1.19X CoH lead over Hall in this R+3 district, which Hall won by 17% in 2008. Hall’s fundraising is pathetic.

29. CO-04 – Markey (D) v. Gardner (R) – Markey has a 2.32X CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which she won by 12% over incumbent Marilyn Musgrave in 2008.

30. NC-08 – Kissell (D) v. Johnson (R) – In spite of dreadful fundraising, Kissell has a 1.87X CoH advantage in this R+2 district, which he won by 11% over incumbent Robin Hayes in 2008. PPP showed Kissell way ahead.

31. PA-07 – OPEN – Lentz (D) v. Meehan (R) – Meehan has a 1.45X CoH advantage in this D+3 district.

32. TX-17 – Edwards (D) v. Flores (R) – Edwards currently has a 29-to-1 CoH advantage, but only because Flores drained his resources on the primary/runoff. R+20 district, which Edwards won by 7.5% in 2008.

33. MS-04 – Taylor (D) v. Palazzo (R) – This is way too high. Taylor has a 1.85X CoH advantage in this R+20 district. However, he won by 49% in 2008. Sloppy fundraising by Taylor.

34. NY-20 – Murphy (D) v. Gibson (R) – Murphy has a 12-1 CoH advantage in this R+2 district, which he won by <1% in a 2009 special election.

35. CA-11 – McNerney (D) v. Goehring (R) – McNerney has a 2.27X CoH advantage in this R+1 district, which he won by 11% in 2008.

36. FL-08 – Grayson (D) v. O’Donoghue (R) – Grayson has an awesome 5-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+2 district, which he won by 4 over incumbent Ric Keller in 2008. Dan Webster will have a lot of catching up to do.

37. FL-22 – Klein (D) v. West (R) – Klein has a 2.36X CoH advantage in this D+1 district. Klein beat West by 9% in 2008. West internal shows a tossup.

38. VA-11 – Connolly (D) v. Fimian (R) – Connolly has a 1.69X CoH advantage in this D+2 district. Connolly beat Fimian by 12% in 2008. Fimian internal has Fimian up 5.

39. MA-10 – OPEN – Keating (D) v. Perry (R) – The Scott Brown-backed Perry has a 1.12X CoH advantage in this D+5 district.

40. PA-10 – Carney (D) v. Marino (R) – Carney sports a 13-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+8 district, which he won by 13% in 2008.

41. AZ-08 – Giffords (D) v. Paton (R) – Giffords has a 5-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+4 district, which she won by 12% in 2008.

42. PA-04 – Altmire (D) v. Buchanan (R) – Altmire has an impressive 12-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which he won by 12% in 2008.

43. FL-24 – Kosmas (D) v. Miller (R) – Kosmas has a 3.3X CoH advantage in this R+4 district, which she won by 16% over incumbent Tom Feeney in 2008.

44. AZ-01 – Kirkpatrick (D) v. Gosar (R) – Kirkpatrick has a 4.68X CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which she won by 16% in 2008.

45. SD-AL – Herseth-Sandlin (D) v. Curd (R) – Herseth-Sandlin has a 2.38X CoH advantage despite unimpressive fundraising. She won this R+9 district by a whopping 35% in 2008. Rasmussen has Herseth-Sandlin ahead.

46. OH-16 – Boccieri (D) v. Renacci (R) – Boccieri has a 6-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+4 district, which he won by 11% in 2008.

47. NV-03 – Titus (D) v. Heck (R) – Titus has a 3.51X CoH advantage in this D+2 district, which she won by 5% over incumbent Jon Porter in 2008. Mason-Dixon has Titus down.

48. GA-08 – Marshall (D) v. Hicks (R) – Marshall has a massive 17-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+10 district, which he won by 14.5% in 2008.

49. ND-AL – Pomeroy (D) v. Berg (R) – Pomeroy has an impressive 4.77X CoH advantage in this R+10 district, which he won by 24% in 2008. Rasmussen shows Berg ahead.

50. HI-01 – VACANT – Hanabusa (D) v. Djou (R) – Djou has a 1.47X CoH advantage in this D+11 district. Bizarre, jungle special election complicates matters in this district. Multiple polls show that the special is a tossup.

51. WI-08 – Kagen (D) v. Trager (R) – Kagen has an impressive 5.66X CoH advantage in this R+2 district, which he won by 8.1% in 2008.

52. IA-03 – Boswell (D) v. Gibbons (R) – Boswell has a 2.18X CoH advantage in this D+1 district, which he won by 14% in 2008.

53. NY-01 – Bishop (D) v. Cox (R) – Bishop has a 2-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+0 district, which he won by 17% in 2008. Weird FDL poll showed a tossup race.

54. SC-05 – Spratt (D) v. Mulvaney (R) – Spratt has a 4-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+7 district, which he won by 25% in 2008. PPP showed Spratt ahead.

55. NJ-03 – Adler (D) v. Runyan (R) – Adler sports an enormous 12-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+1 district, which he won by 4% in 2008.

56. CT-04 – Himes (D) v. Debicella (R) – Himes has a 4-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+5 district, which he won by 4% over incumbent Chris Shays in 2008.

57. MO-04 – Skelton (D) v. Stouffer (R) – Skelton has a 4.5X CoH advantage in this R+14 district, which he won by a whopping 32% in 2008.

58. NY-13 – McMahon (D) v. Grimm (R) – McMahon has a 2.57X CoH advantage in this R+4 district, which he won by 28% in 2008.

59. MI-09 – Peters (D) v. Goodman (R) – Peters has a 4-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+2 district, which he won by 9.5% in 2008.

60. PA-11 – Kanjorski (D) v. Barletta (R) – Kanjorski has a nearly 6-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+4 district. Kanjorski beat Barletta by 3% in 2008.

61. KY-06 – Chandler (D) v. Barr (R) – Chandler has nearly a 5-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+9 district, which he won by 29% in 2008.

62. IN-09 – Hill (D) v. Young (R) – Hill has a nearly 6-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which he won by 19% in 2008. Sodrel internal has the race a tossup.

63. PA-08 – Murphy (D) v. Fitzpatrick (R) – Fitzpatrick closed the fundraising gap fast. Murphy has a 2.79X CoH advantage in this D+2 district, which Murphy won by 15% in 2008.

64. OH-18 – Space (D) v. Gibbs (R) – Space has a huge 14-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+7 district, which he won by 20% in 2008.

65. OH-13 – Sutton (D) v. Ganley (R) – Highly unusual race in which the challenger has a 7-to-1 CoH advantage. The district is D+5, and Sutton won by 29% in 2008. Sutton needs to pick up the fundraising pace.

66. NM-01 – Heinrich (D) v. Barela (R) – Heinrich has a 2.66X CoH advantage in this D+5 district, which he won by 11% in 2008.

67. CO-03 – Salazar (D) v. Tipton (R) – Salazar has an impressive 6-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+5 district, which he won by 23% in 2008.

68. TX-23 – Rodriguez (D) v. Canseco (R) – Rodriguez has a 21-to-1 CoH advantage, but only because Canseco drained his resources on the primary/runoff. Rodriguez won this R+4 district by 14% in 2008.

69. OR-05 – Schrader (D) v. Bruun (R) – Schrader has a 3.44X CoH advantage in this D+1 district, which he won by 16% in 2008.

70. WA-03 – Heck (D) v. Herrera (R) – Heck has quietly amassed a nearly 4-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+0 district. My sense is that the vulnerability of this district is overstated.

71. UT-02 – Matheson (D) v. Philpot (R) – Matheson has a 162-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+15 district, which he won by 29% in 2008.

72. PA-17 – Holden (D) v. Argall (R) – Holden has an 8-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which he won by 27% in 2008.

73. CT-05 – Murphy (D) v. Greenberg (R) – Murphy has a 3-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+2 district, which he won by 20% in 2008.

74. NC-11 – Shuler (D) v. Eichenbaum (R) – Shuler has a 16-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which he won by 26% in 2008.

75. VA-09 – Boucher (D) v. Griffith (R) – Boucher has a 22-to-1 CoH advantage, but Griffith only got into the race recently. Boucher was unopposed in this R+11 district in 2008.

76. GA-02 – Bishop (D) v. Keown (R) – Bishop only has a 2-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+1 district, which he won by a whopping 38% in 2008.

77. IL-11 – Halvorson (D) v. Kinzinger (R) – Halvorson has a 4-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+1 district, which she won by 24% in 2008. Kinzinger internal has him up.

78. NJ-12 – Holt (D) v. Sipprelle (R) – Holt has only a 1.65X CoH advantage in this D+5 district, which he won by 28% in 2008.

79. IL-14 – Foster (D) v. Hultgren (R) – Foster has a 12-to-1 CoH advantage, partly because Hultgren used most of his resources on the primary. Foster won this R+1 district by 15.5% in 2008.

80. MO-03 – Carnahan (D) v. Martin (R) – CoH is dead even in this D+7 district, which Carnahan won by 36% in 2008. Pick it up, Russ!

81. NY-25 – Maffei (D) v. Bitz (R) – Maffei has an 11-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+3 district, which he won by 13% in 2008.

82. CA-18 – Cardoza (D) v. Berryhill (R) – Cardoza has a 2.15X CoH advantage. Cardoza was unopposed in this D+4 district in 2008.

83. OR-01 – Wu (D) v. Brodhead (R) – Wu has only a 1.68 CoH advantage. Wu was unopposed in this D+8 district in 2008.

84. WV-03 – Rahall (D) v. Maynard (R) – Rahall has a 42-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which he won by 34% in 2008.

85. NH-02 – Swett (D) v. Bass (R) – Leftovers from a prior run give Swett a 4-to-1 CoH advantage, which is why this is so low on the list. D+3 district. PPP showed a big Bass lead.

86. WI-07 – Obey (D) v. Duffy (R) – Obey has a 4-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+3 district, which he won by 22% in 2008.

87. CO-07 – Perlmutter (D) v. Frazier (R) – Perlmutter has a 3.3X CoH advantage in this D+4 district, which he won by 27% in 2008.

88. OH-06 – Wilson (D) v. Johnson (R) – Wilson has an 8-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+2 district, which he won by 29% in 2008.

89. IN-02 – Donnelly (D) v. Walorski (R) – Donnelly has a 5.5X CoH advantage in this R+2 district, which he won by 37% in 2008.

90. IL-08 – Bean (D) v. Walsh (R) – Bean has a 22-to-1 CoH advantage, partly due to Walsh’s use of resources in a competitive primary. Bean won this R+1 district by 21% in 2008.

91. WA-02 – Larsen (D) v. Koster (R) – Larsen has a 7-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+3 district, which he won by 25% in 2008.

92. WI-03 – Kind (D) v. Kapanke (R) – Kind has a 6-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+4 district, which he won by 29% in 2008.

93. MN-01 – Walz (D) v. Demmer (R) – Walz has a 31-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+1 district, which he won by 31% in 2008.

94. RI-01 – OPEN – Cicilline (D) v. Loughlin (R) – Cicilline has quickly built a 4-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+13 district.

95. CA-47 – Sanchez (D) v. Tran (R) – Sanchez has a 3.45X CoH advantage in this D+4 district, which she won by 44% in 2008.

96. GA-12 – Barrow (D) v. Smith (R) – Barrow has a 29-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+1 district, which he won by 32% in 2008.

UPDATE: On the We Ask America Illinois Polls

So a new pollster, We Ask America, has been running some gaudy numbers for Republican candidates and issues. They released a slew of Illinois House polls with the following results:

IL-08 – Walsh (R) 38, Bean (D) 38

IL-10 – Seals (D) 40, Dold (R) 37

IL-11 – Kinzinger (R) 42, Halvorson (D) 30

IL-14 – Hultgren (R) 38, Foster (D) 36

IL-17 – Hare (D) 39, Schilling (R) 32

So here’s the rub. We Ask America has Obama approval at 47-50 … IN ILLINOIS!!!

http://weaskamerica.com/2010/0…

Rasmussen had Obama approval in Illinois at 56-44 on March 10, just one day before We Ask America’s 47-50 finding. The pollster.com average NATIONWIDE is 48-48. Illinois was 20 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole in 2008, so if we crudely extrapolate that, we get 58-38 Obama approval in Illinois.

But let’s take Rasmussen’s 56-44 approval rating, which is 15 POINTS better than We Ask America’s 47-50 in Illinois, and (again crudely) reconfigure the We Ask America polls:

IL-08 – Bean (D) 46, Walsh (R) 31

IL-10 – Seals (D) 48, Dold (R) 30

IL-11 – Halvorson (D) 38, Kinzinger (R) 35

IL-14 – Foster (D) 44, Hultgren (R) 31

IL-17 – Hare (D) 47, Schilling (R) 25

Seems more realistic to me given the probable differences in name recognition. IL-11 is a close race, and the others are competitive – incumbents (and Seals who has run twice before) below 50%, with the challengers needing to play catchup in the name recongition department.

Kinzinger is an impressive candidate, and it would not surprise me if he is polling close with Halvorson. But up 12? Halvorson won an open seat by 20+% in 2008 and has represented a largely overlapping State Senate district for years.

If you look on the We Ask America website, they are also running some daunting healthcare numbers for members who voted yes, with roughly 60% or more of people in swing districts being more likely to vote against the incumbent for the “yes” vote. I would love to know We Ask America’s Obama approval numbers in those districts.

I am not writing to disparage We Ask America. I know nothing about them. I have expressed my concerns about Rasmussen before, but I am even more concerned about new pollsters coming out of the woodwork and creating favorable narratives for one party. I am reminded of the gaudy numbers for Scott Brown from Pajamas Media and Merriman River Group during his election, not to necessarily disparage either of those outfits either. I just cannot remember this phenomenon happening in previous cycles. In previous cycles, we seemed to get fairly consistent and credible polling information from a narrow group of seemingly reliable pollsters.

Something feels wrong here. Certainly, polling seems very different and more partisan than it ever has before. I hope that people with more expertise and bigger soapboxes than me will continue to vet these pollsters carefully and call them out if something is amiss.

What I do know is that Obama at 47-50 approval in Illinois is embarrassingly inconsistent with all of the other information out there. It would probably put Obama’s nationwide approval into the 30’s. Things are tough for the Democrats, but they’re not that tough.

UPDATE: So I did some research on the identity of We Ask America. Its website only discloses that it is a division of “Xpress Professional Services, Inc.” But it does not tell the reader what exactly that means, which turns out to be quite significant.

Xpress Professional Services, Inc. is a subsidiary of the Illinois Manufacturer’s Association, which is an anti-union, anti-tax, and anti-Health Care Reform industry advocacy organization.

Its CEO is Greg Baise, who was a 1990 Republican candidate for Treasurer, losing to Pat Quinn by 11%. He is also Treasurer of the Economic Freedom Alliance, which has targeted Democrat Bill Foster with advertising labeling him as a “job killer” for his support of card check legislation.

Its COO is Gregg Durham, a former spokesman for the Illinois Republican House Caucus and Republican State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka.

The bottom line is that this is a partisan Republican pollster and an arm of the pro-business Illinois Manufacturer’s Association. There is nothing wrong with being a Republican pollster or being an arm of the Illinois Manufacturer’s Association. However, there is something wrong with the half-ass disclosure on the website of an affiliation with “Xpress Professional Services, Inc.,” which could be anything, instead of a full disclosure of the direct link to the Illinois Manufacturer’s Association and its Republican principals.

Here are two local Illinois news articles on We Ask America’s ties:

http://www.sj-r.com/opinions/x…

http://www.suburbanchicagonews…

A look at the Texas Senate races.

Republicans control the Texas Senate by a 19-12 margin. The good news is that it puts Democrats only 4 seats away from flipping the chamber. The bad news is that the Democrats are making virtually no effort to pick up seats in a year when Republicans have more than twice as many seats up as Democrats. Fortunately, Republicans don’t appear to be mounting much of a challenge to Democratic seats either, although they are at least contesting all seats. There probably will not be pickups on either side.

There are 11 Republicans up for re-election. Eight of them are unopposed:

TX-01 – Kevin Eltife (R-Tyler)

TX-03 – Robert Nichols (R-Jacksonville)

TX-07 – Dan Patrick (R-Houston)

TX-08 – Florence Shapiro (R-Plano)

TX-12 – Jane Nelson (R-Flower Mound)

TX-17 – Joan Huffman (R-Southside Place)

TX-22 – Kip Averitt (R-Waco)

TX-25 – Jeff Wentworth (R-San Antonio)

Huffman is particularly tragic, as Obama took 47% of the vote in her district, and she was just elected by 12% in a 2008 special election.

The other three Republicans have classic “some dude” challengers:

TX-02 – Bob Duell (R-Greenville) will face insurance agent Kathleen Shaw in a 60-39 McCain district.

TX-05 – Steve Ogden (R-Bryan) will face substitute teacher Stephen Wyman, whom he defeated by 26% in 2006.

TX-18 – Glenn Hegar (R-Katy) will face retired teacher Pat Olney in a 63-36 McCain district.

I know Texas is tough, but we have to be able to do better than this.

Republicans, by contrast, are contesting all five Democratic seats that are up, but their challenges fortunately don’t look too serious either:

TX-13 – Rodney Ellis (D-Houston) will face Mike “Some Dude” Mauldin in an 80-20 Obama district.

TX-14 – Kirk Watson (D-Austin) will face attorney/psychologist Mary Lou “What’s Her Face?” Serafine in a 64-34 Obama district.

TX-15 – Veteran incumbent John Whitmire (D-Houston) will face self-employed salesman Bill “Who Dat?” Walker in a 61-38 Obama district.

TX-19 – In the only race that looks anywhere near interesting, Carlos Uresti (D-El Paso) will face real estate broker and 2006 candidate Dick Bowen, who held Uresti to 59% of the vote back then. The Southwest Texas district is 70% Hispanic and went for Obama 55-45.

TX-29 – Incumbent Eliot Shapleigh (D-El Paso) is retiring. Democrat Jose Rodriguez is a substantial favorite over professor and frequent candidate Dan Chavez in this El Paso district that went for Obama 65-34.

The Senate – a best case scenario

In light of today’s USA Today/Gallup polling on healthcare, Democrats will, of course, hold all 18 seats that they are defending this cycle, so we don’t need to talk about those.

Phase I – The wimps bailing out because the Republicans are DOOMED

A. Missouri – Missourians who are giving Roy Blunt competitive poll numbers right now wake up and realize, “Wait, this is Roy Blunt.” Carnahan by 23%.

B. Ohio – Jennifer Brunner wins the primary and the general in spite of having a war chest of $1.47. It is the ultimate grassroots campaign, with her immediate family and friends holding up signs written with magic marker on cardboard boxes in various parts of the state. Brunner by 18%.

C. New Hampshire – Binnie, Lamontagne, and Ayotte have a three-way tie in the Republican primary, which is decided by a poker game. Lamontagne wins, and Binnie and Ayotte both endorse Hodes and claim that Lamontagne cheats at cards. Hodes by 17%.

D. Kentucky – Paul and Conway win the primaries. Conway oppo researchers discover that Paul was an extra in Bonnie Tyler’s “Total Eclipse of the Heart” video, costing him 20% of his vote. Conway by 13%.

E. Kansas – Having now insured every American, Sebelius heads back to Kansas and beats down on Jerry Moran. Sebelius by 11%.

F. Florida – Crist switches parties but loses the Democratic primary. He runs as the Coffee Party candidate, and Meek beats Rubio. Meek by 9%.

G. Texas – KBH drops out. Sharp raises shitloads of scrilla and beats Kinky Friedman, who wins the Republican nomination. Sharp by 8%.

Phase II – Republicans in diapers.

A. Louisiana – Much like Missouri, Louisiana wakes up and collectively says, “This guy wears fucking diapers.” Melancon by 14%.

At this point, GOPVOTER and INRepublican are shitting bricks, but hang in there guys!

Phase III – Republican incumbents who nobody in the state has ever heard of

A. North Carolina – Elaine Marshall wins this race because Burr has only 11% name recognition on election day. Marshall by 6%.

Phase IV – Democrat recruiting successes

A. South Carolina – Stephen Colbert gets on the ballot as a Democrat and destroys DeMint. Colbert by 34%.

B. Alaska – Two words: Mike Gravel. Gravel by 27%.

C. Georgia – Jimmy Carter launches the greatest political comeback in history. It’s been claimed as unlikely that Jimmy Carter will challenge Johnny Isakson. But that’s what they said about John Hoeven and Mike Castle. Carter by 13%.

Phase V – Batshit crazy incumbents

A. Oklahoma – Coburn reiterates that lesbians making out in bathrooms is the #1 thing on his mind – I mean the #1 problem for Oklahoma. His position on the subject brings his approval ratings near 0%, and he is defeated by Oklahoma’s first lesbian Senator – carpetbagger Rosie O’Donnell. O’Donnell by 3%.

Phase VI – Old men yelling at clouds

A. Iowa – Grassley adopts “get off my lawn” as a campaign slogan. It does not resonate. Conlin by 5%.

B. Arizona – J.D. Hayworth handily defeats McCain in the primary. Arizona Republicans all collectively think, “WTF did we just do?” Glassman by 21%.

Phase VII – Party switching bastards

A. Alabama – Alabama tea partiers realize that Shelby used to be a Democrat. They all write in Judge Roy Moore. Parker Griffith switches back to the Democrats to run for Senate. Griffith by 17%.

This leaves the Republicans holding 3 (ID, UT, and SD) of the 19 seats they are defending. Democrats have a 75-25 majority in the Senate, and still can’t break a filibuster on any significant issue.

Analysis of Illinois State Senate Races

The majority in the Illinois State Senate is not in play, even mathematically. The Democrats currently hold a 37-22 supermajority in the 59-member chamber. There are 47 seats either not up for re-election or unopposed. Democrats hold 30 of those seats, which is sufficient for a bare, one-vote majority even if Republicans win every contested seat (which will not happen). The drama this year is whether Democrats maintain their 60% supermajority, which is required to override a gubernatorial veto. That would, of course, become especially relevant if Republican Bill Brady manages to win the governor’s mansion. Republicans only need two seats to defeat the Democratic supermajority. There are 12 contested seats, 7 Democratic and 5 Republican. Of these, 2 Democratic seats (07-Steans and 52-Frerichs) are safe, and 3 Republican seats (25-Lauzen, 28-Millner, and 58-Luechtefeld) are safe. Of the remaining 6 competitive races, I predict that Republicans pick up two seats (districts 22 and 31), narrowly defeating the current supermajority:

DISTRICT 10 – OPEN (JAMES DELEO) – DEMOCRAT

RATING: LEAN DEMOCRATIC HOLD

This is a Chicago district that was created to elect a Democrat. Outgoing Democratic State Senator James DeLeo had held the seat easily since 1993.

Democrat John Mulroe is a Chicago attorney and CPA. He narrowly lost a 2008 challenge to a sitting Circuit Judge. He easily won a crowded primary.

Republican Brian Doherty has been a Chicago Alderman since 1993. He is popular, and is considered the only viable Republican candidate in this district. Doherty’s Alderman position, aside from being safe, pays twice as much as the State Senate. The good news for Doherty is that he gets to keep it if he loses.

As of the end of 2009, Mulroe had $25,000 on hand, while Doherty had $16,000.

Doherty should make this a race, but the blue lean of the district should carry Mulroe.

DISTRICT 22 – MICHAEL NOLAND – DEMOCRAT

RATING: LEAN REPUBLICAN PICKUP

This district is based in the Western suburbs of Chicago.

Democrat Michael Noland is the sitting State Senator. He ran unsuccessfully for the Illinois House in 2002 and 2004, the second time losing by less than 400 votes. In 2005, he made an unsuccessful run for Elgin City Council. He was elected to this seat in 2006 by 8% over Steamwood Mayor Billie Roth. He replaced Steve Rauschenberger, who had vacated the seat to run for Lieutenant Governor.

Rauschenberger is now looking to take his seat back. He had held the seat from 1993 to 2007, when he vacated it for the aforesaid run for Lieutenant Governor. He had also lost a Republican primary for U.S. Senate in 2004. He has worked as a lobbyist since leaving office.

As of the end of 2009, Noland had $8,000 on hand, while Rauschenberger had $44,000.

In a Republican year and with a cash advantage, I expect Rauschenberger to win a tough race. Rauschenberger’s recent work as a lobbyist will be fodder for Noland attacks, however.

DISTRICT 31 – MICHAEL BOND – DEMOCRAT

RATING: LEAN REPUBLICAN PICKUP

This seat is in a historically Republican district in the outer Northern Chicago exurbs.

Democrat Michael Bond is the sitting State Senator. He was an insurance executive prior to his election to the Senate in 2006. The stars aligned for Bond in winning the seat. Republican incumbent Adeline Jay Geo-Karis was defeated in a primary by Sue Simpson. Geo-Karis promptly endorsed Bond and actively supported his campaign. Bond defeated Simpson by 2%.

Republican Suzi Schmidt has served on the Lake County Board since 1988, and has served as its Chair since 2000.

As of the end of 2009, Bond had $21,000 on hand, while Schmidt had $42,000. Bond closed the gap some in January, reporting nearly $11,000 in large contributions.

Schmidt should have the advantage here in a Republican year. Bond’s election in 2006 was the result of an unlikely series of events. Schmidt has a clear shot at Bond this time, has a cash on hand advantage, and has a Republican wind at her back.

DISTRICT 34 – DAVE SYVERSON – REPUBLICAN

RATING: VERY LIKELY REPUBLICAN HOLD

This district is based in Rockford, in North Central Illinois. This territory has become considerably more favorable to Democrats in recent years.

Republican Dave Syverson is the sitting State Senator. He is an insurance broker by trade. He has held the seat since 1993. Syverson received a relatively strong challenge in 2006, winning 56-44 over Winnebago County Democratic Chair David Lewandowski. He had been unopposed in 1998 and 2002.

Democrat Jennifer Cacciapaglia is the Rockford City Attorney. Her campaign and fundraising have been stalled by undisclosed medical issues.

As of the end of 2009, Syverson had $45,000 on hand, while Cacciapaglia had $6,000.

Cacciapaglia could have been a serious threat to Syverson, but is playing from behind now. Syverson is entrenched, and will likely win again.

DISTRICT 40 – TOI HUTCHINSON – DEMOCRAT

RATING: LEAN TO LIKELY DEMOCRATIC HOLD

This district covers part of Southeast Cook County and extends well into the Southern Chicago exurbs.

Democrat Toi Hutchinson is the sitting State Senator. She is African-American. She was appointed to the seat in 2009 when her predecessor, Debbie Halvorson, took office in the U.S. Congress. She had been Halvorson’s Chief of Staff since 2004.

Republican Adam Baumgartner is a 28-year old businessman. He was elected to the Peotone School Board in 2003. He does not seem to have a campaign website.

As of the end of 2009, Hutchinson had $43,000 on hand, and added another $18,000 in large contributions in January. Baumgartner had not filed a financial report for the 2009 year-end, but had $35,000 in large contributions in January, including a whopping $25,000 from the International Union of Operational Engineers.

This district looks like it leans Democratic. I would expect that Obama won it comfortably. My rough estimate shows that it is approximately 67% white, 23% black, and 8% Hispanic. Baumgartner is getting the corporate and union backing to make this competitive, but Hutchinson should have an edge based on partisanship.

DISTRICT 49 – DEANNA DEMUZIO – DEMOCRAT

RATING: LIKELY DEMOCRATIC HOLD

This district covers a broad swath northeast of St. Louis, from the Mississippi river to Central Illinois. It appears to cover territory that McCain won over Obama in 2008, though not overwhelmingly.

Democrat Deanna Demuzio is the sitting State Senator. She was appointed to this seat in 2004 after the death of her husband Vince Demuzio, the Majority Leader of the Illinois Senate. She was unopposed in a 2004 special election to complete the term of Mr. Demuzio, and was re-elected by 20% in 2006.

Republican Sam McCann owns a homebuilding company.

As of the end of 2009, Demuzio had $83,000 on hand, while McCann had $20,000.

The Demuzio family name is clearly strong in this district, in spite of the Republican nature of the area at the presidential level. I rate this “likely” rather than “safe” because McCann has raised some decent money and because of the Republican tilt of the district.

DISTRICT 51 – KYLE MCCARTER – REPUBLICAN

RATING: LEAN REPUBLICAN HOLD

This district forms a backwards “L” from St. Clair County (St. Louis suburbs) to Macon County (Decatur) in Central Illinois. It appears to be mostly Republican territory.

Republican Kyle McCarter is the sitting State Senator. For eight years, he has been a member of the St. Clair County board, in the Southwest extreme of the district. He is also the owner of a local manufacturing company that outsources jobs. He was appointed to this seat last year when Senate Minority Leader Frank Watson stepped down for health reasons.

Democrat Tim Dudley is a realtor by trade. His base is Decatur, in the extreme Northeastern part of the district. Dudley was appointed to the Macon County Board in 2007, and was elected to a full term on the Board in 2008. He is backed by the AFL-CIO and the Illinois Federation of Teachers. He easily defeated Amy Bliefnick in the primary.

As of the end of 2009, McCarter had $53,000 on hand, while Dudley had $26,000. Dudley added another $8,000 in large contributions in January.

This could be an interesting race, but I suspect McCarter will hold the seat in a Republican year. However, Dudley will try to make an issue of McCarter’s outsourcing in a district where unions are influential. This is also going to be an interesting battle of disparate geographic bases in an oddly-shaped district.

Analysis of Illinois Congressional Races

Democrats currently hold 12 of Illinois’s 19 congressional districts. In 2010, 8 Democratic seats (IL-01 – Rush; IL-02 – Jackson; IL-03 – Lipinski; IL-04 – Gutierrez; IL-05 – Quigley; IL-07 – Davis, IL-09 – Schakowsky, and IL-12 – Costello) and 5 Republican seats (IL-06 – Roskam; IL-15 – Johnson; IL-16 – Manzullo; IL-18 – Schock; and IL-19 – Shimkus) appear to be safe. Of the 6 potentially competitive races, I predict the Democrats take one seat (IL-10 – OPEN (Kirk)).

DISTRICT 08 – MELISSA BEAN – DEMOCRAT

PVI: R+1

RATING: VERY LIKELY DEMOCRATIC HOLD

The eighth district covers the wealthy Northern Chicago suburbs of Cook, Lake, and McHenry counties.

Democrat Melissa Bean is the sitting Congresswoman. She was a successful sales executive with Fortune 500 companies as clients. She hit the political map in 2002, when she lost to incumbent Phil Crane by only 15% in spite of a lack of party support. She did not have that problem in 2004, when she beat Crane by 4%. She defended the seat by 7% against David McSweeney in 2006, and by 20% against Steve Greenberg in 2008.

Republican Joe Walsh is a businessman and conservative activist. His is a former teacher and social worker. He won a crowded primary by nearly 10%. He is considered the first “Tea Party” candidate to win a contested primary for a major office. It was recently reported that Walsh’s home is being foreclosed.

As of January 13, 2010, Bean had $785,000 on hand, and Walsh had $7,000.

I hesitate to diminish Walsh. He obviously received traction in the primary, and raised over $100,000. However, Bean is pretty flush, and has done a good job of establishing herself in this blueing district. I would be surprised if Bean wins by less than 10%.

DISTRICT 10 – OPEN (MARK KIRK) – REPUBLICAN

PVI: D+6

RATING: TOSS-UP/TILT DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

The tenth district takes in the wealthy Northern Suburbs of Chicago. It is historically Republican. A Democrat has represented it for only four of the last 100+ years (Abner Mikva 1975-1979).

Democrat Dan Seals is a marketing executive. He is African-American. He ran two strong races against Mark Kirk in 2006 and 2008, losing by 6% both times. Kirk had easily won his 2002 and 2004 contests. Seals defeated State Representative Julie Hamos by less than one percent in the primary.

Republican Bob Dold(!) is a pest control company owner. He served as an investigative counsel for the House Government Reform and Oversight Committee, and worked for former Vice President Dan Quayle. Dold won his primary by 7% over State Representative Beth Coulson.

As of January 13, 2010, Seals had $146,000 on hand, while Dold had $198,000.

Both candidates will do well with fundraising. Seals seems like a much better ideological fit for this rapidly blueing district. I see Seals’s 2006 and 2008 races against Kirk as a sign of his strength in the district, as Kirk had trounced his prior opponents. Others seem to disagree. If the climate is right, Dold could keep this one in GOP hands, but I give Seals the edge.

DISTRICT 11 – DEBBIE HALVORSON – DEMOCRAT

PVI: R+1

RATING: LIKELY DEMOCRATIC HOLD

The eleventh takes in a strip from the Southern Chicago suburbs nearly all the way across the state, and dips into Bloomington. Democrats had represented the district from 1959 to 1995, when Jerry Weller swept in during the 1994 wave and stayed for 15 years before retiring in 2009.

Democrat Debbie Halvorson is the sitting Congresswoman. Her base is in the Southern exurbs of Chicago. She began as a Mary Kay cosmetics saleswoman. Starting in 1997, she served 12 years in the Illinois Senate, including the last four as majority leader. She defeated Marty Ozinga by 24% to win this seat in 2008.

Republican Adam Kinzinger was a member of the McLean County Board from 1998 to 2003. McLean County includes Bloomington, and is in the Southern part of the district. Kinzinger is a former National Guard pilot who served in Afghanistan and Iraq. He was named Wisconsin Red Cross “Hero of the Year” for an incident wherein he wrestled a knife-wielding assailant to the ground who had just cut a woman’s throat in downtown Milwaukee. He easily won his primary.

As of January 13, 2010, Halvorson had $952,000 on hand, while Kinzinger had $196,000.

Kinzinger seems like a compelling candidate, but Halvorson will be extremely difficult to beat, particularly with nearly a million dollars in the bank. Halvorson has a reputation as an energetic campaigner – the anti-Martha Coakley. Her demolition of Marty Ozinga speaks volumes. When Halvorson defeated incumbent Aldo DeAngelis for the State Senate seat she held for 12 years, DeAngelis’s campaign manager quipped: “Aldo knew all the bank presidents, but Debbie knew all the tellers.” I would say Halvorson holds on by low double digits, maybe high single digits.

DISTRICT 13 – JUDY BIGGERT – REPUBLICAN

PVI: R+1

RATING: VERY LIKELY REPUBLICAN HOLD

The thirteenth district covers the Southwestern suburbs of Chicago, extending into DuPage and Will counties. It is the wealthiest district in Illinois. It has been represented by a Republican for over 100 years.

Republican Judy Biggert is the sitting Congresswoman. An attorney by trade, she served in the Illinois House from 1993-1999. She was elected in 1998, and was easily re-elected until 2008, when her current opponent Scott Harper held her to a 10% victory.

Democrat Scott Harper is the founder of a successful media, design, and marketing company.

As of January 13, 2010, Biggert had $638,000 on hand, while Harper had $99,000.

Harper is a serious candidate, but there is no reason to believe that he will improve on his 10% loss in 2008 in what will probably be a Republican year.

DISTRICT 14 – BILL FOSTER – DEMOCRAT

PVI: R+1

RATING: LEAN DEMOCRATIC HOLD

The fourteenth district extends from the Western Chicago suburbs nearly all the way across the state. Prior to 2008, it had been represented by Republicans for nearly 70 years.

Democrat Bill Foster is the sitting Congressman. His base is in the Western Chicago exurbs. He is an award-winning research physicist and co-founder of a successful theater lighting company. He won a 2008 special election for the seat over Jim Oberweis by 6%, and then won the general election over Oberweis by 16%.

Republican Randy Hultgren is a State Senator representing the Western Chicago exurbs. An attorney by trade, he was elected to the State Senate in 2006. He defeated Ethan Hastert, the son of former House Speaker Dennis Hasters, in the primary by 10%.

As of January 13, 2010, Foster had $1 million on hand, while Hultgren had $10,000.

Hultgren should be taken seriously as a candidate. He has a base in the less conservative Eastern part of the district, and his defeat of Hastert was no small feat. However, he spent nearly all of his money on the primary and is far behind in fundraising. I expect Foster to win by high single digits here.

DISTRICT 17 – PHIL HARE – DEMOCRAT

PVI: D+3

RATING: VERY LIKELY DEMOCRATIC HOLD

The seventeenth district is a gerrymandered district concentrated along the Mississippi River in West Central Illinois, but jutting out into Springfield and Decatur. It is heavily white and heavily blue collar. Democrat Lane Evans held the seat from 1983 to 2007. Prior to that, it had been represented by Republicans since 1918, with the exception of a single, one-term Democrat.

Democrat Phil Hare is the sitting Congressman. He is from Rock Island in the Northern part of the district. He was a union leader before becoming an aide to Representative Evans. Evans retired prior to the 2006 election, and Hare defeated Andrea Zinger by 14% to take the seat. He was unopposed in 2008.

Republican Bobby Schilling owns a restaurant in East Moline, in the Northern part of the district. He touts his background as a union Treasurer at Prudential Insurance. He is a movement conservative supported by the Tea Party.

As of January 13, 2010, Hare had $716,000 on hand, while Schilling had $45,000.

In a November 22, 2009 local media poll had Hare’s re-elect at 40% re-elect, 47% against.

This race has a chance to be competitive. This is the type of hardscrabble, blue collar district where Democrats may struggle in 2010. That said, Hare has a 16 to 1 cash on hand advantage, and Schilling appears to be very conservative. I expect Hare to win by about 15%.