Author: spiderdem

I went through the Independent Expenditure reports for September to find out which House races the parties were making I.E.’s in.  Below is my armchair, sound byte analysis of the races in which the party committees have made I.E.’s (and some hyped races where they have not).

UPDATE: I have updated to provide CoH comparisons for all races, and to include some of the good information provided in the comments.

The Hot List – Races where both committees have made I.E.’s.

AL-02 – 6 to 1 CoH edge to Bright.  DCCC internal showed 9 point lead.  I suspect he is only slightly ahead.

AR-01 – 2.5 to 1 CoH edge to Crawford.  Causey seems to have turned this into a battle.

AZ-05 – 4 to 1 CoH edge to Mitchell.  This seems very, very tight.

CA-11 – 3 to 1 CoH edge to McNerney.  Suspect this one is very tight.  Whitman/Fiorina implosion may help.

IL-10 – CoH dead even.  Seals internal shows 13 point lead.  I suspect Dold is behind with upside potential.

IL-14 – 6 to 1 CoH edge to Foster.  Foster is probably behind for DCCC to spend here.

MD-01 – 1.5 to 1 CoH edge to Kratovil.  This may be the surprise of the night if Kratovil holds on.  Seems close.

MI-01 – CoH dead even.  McDowell’s poll showing a tossup is credible in light of both parties’ investments.

MI-07 – 7 to 1 CoH edge to Schauer.  Schauer is probably behind but seems to be improving.

MO-04 – 6 to 1 CoH edge to Skelton.  Must be real trouble for him.

MS-01 – 4 to 1 CoH edge to Childers.   I suspect Childers is behind by single digits.

NY-24 – CoH dead even. Polls show a modest Arcuri lead.

OH-16 – 1.5 to 1 CoH edge to Boccieri.  Glad we’re even playing here, but I have to believe Boccieri is behind.

PA-03 – 10 to 1 CoH edge to Dahlkemper.  Playing from behind here.

PA-11 – 4.5 to 1 CoH edge to Kanjorski.  Playing from behind here too, but I’m amazed we’re still playing at all!

SC-05 – 2.5 to 1 CoH edge to Spratt.  Seems like real trouble for Spratt.

WA-03 – 6 to 1 CoH edge to Heck.  Dems playing from behind here, but Heck seems to be closing.

WI-07 – 1.5 to 1 CoH edge to Duffy.  Duffy seems to be ahead here, but I suspect by single digits.

WV-01 – CoH dead even.  I suspect Oliviero is ahead, but McKinley may have upside.  

Races where DCCC has made I.E.’s but not NRCC.

FL-25 – 2 to 1 CoH edge to Rivera.  Love that the Dems are going after this.  I actually think we’re slightly ahead.

GA-02 – CoH dead even.  Lackluster fundraising from ethically challenged Bishop.

HI-01 – CoH dead even.  GOPVOTER notes that the NRCC delivers only stealth support in HI.

IA-03 – 7 to 1 CoH edge to Boswell.  If it’s competitive, why aren’t the Republicans in?  If not, why are the Dems?

IL-17 – 4 to 1 CoH edge to Hare.  Had this one pegged as a sleeper early on.

MA-10 – 3 to 1 CoH edge to Keating.  Surprised that Dems seem to be feeling the heat here.  

NC-08 – 3.5 to 1 CoH edge to Kissell.  Not sure this says anything except that Kissell is a horrible fundraiser.

OH-13 – 4.5 to 1 CoH edge to self-funder Ganley.  Ganley’s little, um, problem may take care of this one.

VA-02 – 6 to 1 CoH edge to Nye.  I suspect we’re behind here.

VA-11 – 5 to 1 CoH edge to Connolly.  This is a real sleeper.

Races where NRCC has made I.E.’s but not DCCC.

AZ-01 – 20 to 1(!) CoH edge for Kirkpatrick.  Kirkpatrick has to get by on that for awhile, even in a tight race.

FL-02 – 9 to 1 CoH edge to Boyd.  Similar dynamic to AZ-01.  I bet it’s tight.

FL-08 – 13 to 1 CoH edge to Grayson.  Dumb Grayson ad a game changer.

FL-24 – 11 to 1 CoH edge to Kosmas.  Somewhat like AZ-01 and FL-02.

GA-08 – 4.5 to 1 CoH edge to Marshall.  Seems like the DCCC needs to get in this one.

IL-11 – 3 to 1 CoH edge to Halvorson.  Potential triage victim.

IN-02 – 3 to 1 CoH edge to Donnelly.  I have yet to see the evidence that he is in real trouble.

IN-08 – 1.7 to 1 CoH edge to Van Haaften.  Pleased that Republicans even feel the need to spend here.

IN-09 – 4 to 1 CoH edge to Hill.  Have yet to see the evidence that he is in trouble.

KY-06 – 5 to 1 CoH edge to Chandler.  Ditto.

NC-07 – 9 to 1 CoH edge to McIntyre.  I suspect Pantano really is closing (but not ahead as per SUSA).

ND-AL – 2 to 1 CoH edge to Pomeroy.  I suspect he’s behind.

NJ-03 – 4 to 1 CoH edge to Adler.  This appears to be closing, so DCCC will probably get in.

NM-01 – 2.5 to 1 CoH edge to Heinrich.  Heinrich seems to have a persistent, modest lead.

NV-03 – 3 to 1 CoH edge to Titus.  atdleft tells us DCCC is about to make I.E.’s here.

NY-20 – 3 to 1 CoH edge to Murphy.  I have yet to see the evidence that he is endangered.

OR-05 – 5 to 1 CoH edge to Schrader.  Seems to be a pretty tight race.

PA-07 – 1.5 to 1 CoH edge to Meehan.  Surprised that the RNCC is even bothering to spend here.

PA-08 – 3 to 1 CoH edge to Murphy.  This is headed in the wrong direction, so I hope the DCCC gets in this month.

PA-10 – 70 to 1(!) CoH edge to Carney.  I suspect he is slightly ahead now.

SD-AL – 2.5 to 1 CoH edge to Herseth-Sandlin.  She seems to have taken a firm lead.

TN-08 – 2 to 1 CoH edge to Herron.  I suspect the RNCC is only spending to counteract that advantage.

TX-17 – 5 to 1 CoH edge to Edwards.  Very similar to TN-08, but I suspect Edwards is in even more trouble.

VA-05 – 8 to 1 CoH edge to Periello.  Actually also kind of similar to TN-08 and TX-17.

VA-09 – 7 to 1 CoH edge to Boucher.  I have yet to see the evidence that he is endangered.

WI-08 – 11 to 1 CoH edge to Kagen.  I suspect Kagen is in bigger trouble than many think.

SSP “Toss-Up” or worse races where neither party has made I.E.’s.

AR-02 – 3 to 1 CoH edge to Griffin.  Democratic write-off.

CO-03 – 7.5 to 1 CoH edge to Salazar.  I suspect Salazar is not in as much trouble as partisan polling suggests.

CO-04 – 2 to 1 CoH edge to Markey.  Possible triage victim.

DE-AL – 5 to 1 CoH edge to Carney.  Republican write-off.

FL-22 – 1.3 to 1 CoH edge to Klein.  Both parties letting well-funded candidates slug it out.

ID-01 – 17 to 1 CoH edge to Minnick.  Republican write-off (at least so far).

KS-03 – 2 to 1 CoH edge to Yoder.  Possible triage victim.

LA-02 – 2 to 1 CoH edge to Cao.  Republican write-off?  Or are they going to provide stealth support a la HI-01?

LA-03 – CoH dead even.  Democratic write-off.

NH-01 – 3.5 to 1 CoH edge to Shea-Porter.  This was a late primary, so we’ll see what happens.

NH-02 – 1.4 to 1 CoH edge to Kuster.  I expect both parties to play here this month.

NM-02 – CoH dead even.  Like FL-22, both parties letting well-funded candidates slug it out.

NY-19 – CoH dead even.  Sorry PPP, but if Hall were down two, both parties would be in.  

NY-23 – 1.3 to 1 CoH edge to Owens.  I suspect both parties are pretty confident that Owens wins the three-way.

NY-29 – 7 to 1 CoH edge to Reed.  Democratic write-off.

OH-01 – CoH dead even.  Possible triage victim.

OH-15 – 1.3 to 1 CoH edge to Stivers.  Possible triage victim.  

TN-06 – 2 to 1 CoH edge to Black.  Democratic write-off.

TX-23 – 1.5 to 1 CoH edge to Rodriguez.  I suspect Rodriguez is in decent shape.  Polls were way off in 2006.

WA-02 – 7 to 1 CoH edge to Larsen.  Larsen may be in good shape.  Survey USA may have created a false narrative.

The Democrats who voted against Health Care Reform are very well situated for re-election, considering that they are almost all from red districts.  Those plucky kids who voted for it in tough districts, not so much.  Not going to comment on the overall political wisdom of the vote (who knows where we’d be if HCR had failed), but the numbers tell a pretty clear story and it is an interesting aspect of the coming election (at least to me).

Here are the “no” votes on HCR.  Of the 34, 20 are up in the latest poll.  Only 2 (Edwards and Nye) are down.  One (Space) is tied.  The other 11 are either not running or there is no polling.  

AL-02 – Bright – up 9 in DCCC poll.

AL-07 – Davis – not running.

AR-01 – Berry – not running.

AR-04 – Ross – up 18 in public polling.

ID-01 – Minnick – up 23 in public polling.

GA-08 – Marshall – up 6 in Republican internal.

GA-12 – Barrow – no polling.

IL-03 – Lipinski – no polling.

KY-06 – Chandler – up 14 in public polling.

LA-03 – Melancon – not running.

MA-09 – Lynch – no polling.

MD-01 – Kratovil – up 5 in Dem internal.

MN-07 – Peterson – no polling.

MO-04 – Skelton – up 12 in public poll.

MS-01 – Childers – up 5 in Dem internal.

MS-04 – Taylor – no polling.

NJ-03 – Adler – up 6 in public poll.

NC-07 – McIntyre – up 7 in public polling.

NC-08 – Kissell – up 17 in Dem internal.

NC-11 – Shuler – up 17 in Dem internal.

NM-02 – Teague – up 3 in public poll.

NY-13 – McMahon – up 33 in Dem internal.

NY-24 – Arcuri – up 13 in DCCC poll.

OH-18 – Space – tied in Republican internal.

OK-02 – Boren – up 34 in Dem internal.

PA-04 – Altmire – up 27 in DCCC poll.

PA-17 – Holden – no polling.

SD-AL – Herseth-Sandlin – up 2 in public poll.

TN-04 – Davis – up 11 in Republican internal.

TN-08 – Tanner – not running.

TX-17 – Edwards – down 12 in Republican internal.

UT-02 – Matheson – no polling.

VA-02 – Nye – down 6 in Republican internal.

VA-09 – Boucher – up 10 in public poll.

By comparison, here are the 39 Democratic House members in Republican PVI districts who voted for the bill.  Of these, only 7 are up in the latest poll.  15 are down.  5 are tied.  The other 12 are either not running or there is no polling.

AZ-01 – Kirkpatrick – tied in Republican internal.

AZ-05 – Mitchell – down 6 in conservative poll.

AZ-08 – Giffords – tied in conservative poll.

AR-02 – Snyder – not running.

CA-11 – McNerney – up 1 in conservative poll.

CO-03 – Salazar – down 8 in conservative poll.

CO-04 – Markey – tied in Dem internal.

FL-02 – Boyd – down 15 in Republican internal.

FL-08 – Grayson – up 13 in Dem internal.

FL-24 – Kosmas – down 12 in Republican internal.

IL-08 – Bean – tied in conservative poll.

IL-11 – Halvorson – down 20 in conservative poll.

IL-14 – Foster – down 7 in conservative poll.

IN-02 – Donnelly – up 2 in conservative poll.

IN-08 – Ellsworth – not running.

IN-09 – Hill – up 7 in Republican internal.

KS-03 – Moore – not running.

MI-01 – Stupak – not running.

MI-07 – Schauer – down 8 in conservative poll.

MN-01 – Walz – no polling.

NY-19 – Hall – no polling.

NY-20 – Murphy – up 5 in conservative poll.

NY-23 – Owens – up 2 in conservative poll.

NY-29 – Massa – not running.

NC-02 – Etheridge – down 1 in public poll.

ND-AL – Pomeroy – down 9 in public poll.

OH-06 – Wilson – no polling.

OH-16 – Boccieri – down 14 in conservative poll.

PA-03 – Dahlkemper – down 14 in conservative poll.

PA-10 – Carney – down 15 in conservative poll.

PA-12 – Murtha – not running.

SC-05 – Spratt – tied in Republican internal.

TN-06 – Gordon – not running.

TX-23 – Rodriguez – down 6 in Republican internal.

TX-27 – Ortiz – no polling.

VA-05 – Periello – down 2 in Dem internal.

WV-01 – Mollohan – not running.

WV-03 – Rahall – up 16 in conservative poll.

WI-08 – Kagen – down 10 in conservative poll.

Step right up and get your Senate predictions!

Overall, I expect things to level out where they are now nationally, or perhaps tighten just a hair in favor of the Dems due to better resources and saner candidates.  I have six seats flipping to the Republicans, with none flipping to the Democrats.

1. North Dakota – Hoeven (R) 67, Potter (D) 31 – Even Harry Potter couldn’t pull this off.

2. Arkansas – Boozman (R) 57, Lincoln (D) 40 – This was gone anyway, but divisive primary didn’t help.

3. Indiana – Coats (R) 54, Ellsworth (D) 44 – Thanks Evan.  Nice goin’ dude.

4. Delaware – Castle (R) 54, Coons (D) 45 – On September 14, we are all part of the Tea Party Express.

5. Pennsylvania – Toomey (R) 50, Sestak (D) 47 – Should tighten but too deep a hole for Sestak.

6. Colorado – Buck (R) 49, Bennet (D) 47 – Holding out hope on this one, but I’ve had it flipping all along.

7. Florida – Rubio (R) 40, Crist (I) 37, Meek (D) 20 – Increase in Meek strength may ruin Crist’s chances.

8. Illinois – Giannoulias (D) 48, Kirk (R) 45 – Logical that Illinois will pick detested Dem over detested GOPer.

9. Nevada – Reid (D) 48, Angle (R) 44 – None of the Above runs up the score in this stinker.

10. Washington – Murray (D) 52, Rossi (R) 48 – Primary result made me feel better about Murray.

11. California – Boxer (D) 49, Fiorina (R) 44 – Can’t see Fiorina making the sale to blue electorate.

12. Wisconsin – Feingold (D) 52, Johnson (R) 47 – Johnson looking more like a yahoo every day.  

13. Kentucky – Paul (R) 52, Conway (D) 47 – State may be too red to beat even unconventional Paul.

14. Ohio – Portman (R) 52, Fisher (D) 46 – Dem prospects in Ohio, like many residents, headed south.

15. Missouri – Blunt (R) 52, Carnahan (D) 46 – Really bad environment here for Dems.

16. Louisiana – Vitter (R) 51, Melancon (D) 42 – Third party candidates steal votes from Vitter.

17. Connecticut – Blumenthal (D) 53, McMahon (R) 44 – McMahon spending keeps it reasonable.

18. North Carolina – Burr (R) 53, Marshall (D) 44 – Marshall lack of resources prevents closer race.

19. New Hampshire – Ayotte (R) 53, Hodes (D) 43 – This one hasn’t looked competitive for awhile.

20. Alaska – Miller (R) 53, McAdams (D) 43 –  Relatively strong Obama approval in AK perplexing.

21. West Virginia – Manchin (D) 56, Raese (R) 41 – Cannot believe Gov with 70% approval in trouble.

22. Georgia – Isakson (R) 58, Thurmond (D) 40 – Decent recruit in Thurmond loses due to environment.

23. Iowa – Grassley (R) 59, Conlin (D) 40 – Another good recruit bites the dust due to bad environment.

24. New York (B) – Gillibrand (D) 60, DioGuardi (R) 39 – New York looks rock solid statewide.

25. Arizona – McCain (R) 59, Glassman (D) 37 – Primary damages McCain only a little.

26. Oregon – Wyden (D) 60, Huffman (R) 35 – Wyden may have been vulnerable if targeted.

27. Maryland – Mikulski (D) 63, Wargotz (R) 34 – No trouble for Mikulski in deep blue Maryland.

28. Alabama – Shelby (R) 66, Barnes (D) 34 – Shelby has incredible warchest, won’t need to use it.

29. Kansas – Moran (R) 65, Johnston (D) 32 – Blowout in open seat race.

30. Oklahoma – Coburn (R) 65, Rogers (D) 31 – Could be even worse.

31. Vermont – Leahy (D) 65, Britton (R) 31 – Non-serious challenge for entrenched Leahy.

32. New York (A) – Shumer (D) 67, Townsend (R) 32 – Big sweep across the top of NY ticket.

33. Utah – Lee (R) 69, Granato (D) 29 – Utah gets its first Teabagger Senator.

34. Hawaii – Inouye (D) 69, Cavasso (R) 27 – Inouye an institution in Hawaii.

35. Idaho – Crapo (R) 71, Sullivan (D) 27 – Crapo breaks 70% against unfunded candidate.

36. South Carolina – Demint (R) 69, Greene (D) 23 – Could anyone be less deserving of this political gift?

37. South Dakota – Thune (R) 100, Nobody (D) 0 – Really, we couldn’t get anybody?

Sometimes it’s not the races you lose, but the races you don’t win.  Republicans currently hold a 76-44 advantage in the Florida State House, just 4 seats from a 2/3, veto-overridin’ majority, which could be important with the now distinct possibility of Governor Alex Sink (knock on wood).

This could have, would have, and should have been the year that Democrats finally made up some of that big gap in the State House.  Due to term limits, Republicans have tons of open seats to defend, several of which are in vulnerable districts.  But alas, the poisonous environment of 2010 will probably prevent a Democratic resurgence in the chamber.  In fact, I predict no Dem pickups and two Republican pickups, leaving the chamber 78-42 Republican.

My expectation is that what Florida Democrats were once hoping would be an opportunity for a big gain will end up a stalemate or worse.  It’s like a baseball team losing after leaving 20 runners on base, for those of you who love sports metaphors.  In any event, here is the rundown:

DEMOCRATIC TARGETS

LEANS REPUBLICAN

HD-26 – OPEN (Patterson) – This is a dead even district, with maybe a slight Republican tilt, in Volusia and Flagler counties, stretching from the north central Atlantic coast inland to the Deland area.  Term-limited incumbent Pat Patterson faced only semi-competitive races for re-election.  The Democrat is Volusia County Deputy Superintendent of Schools Michael Huth.  The Republican is Ormond Beach mayor Fred Costello.  Huth has raised $92K to Costello’s $154K.  Given the environment, the financial edge, and Costello’s higher profile as mayor of a significant city, Costello gets the edge.

HD-57 – OPEN (Culp) – This is a slightly Republican-leaning district in the Tampa area.  Term-limited incumbent Faye Culp faced only semi-competitive races for re-election.  The race is a battle between two attorneys: Democrat Stacy Frank and Republican Dana Young.  Frank has raised $197K to Young’s $286K.  Tea Party candidate Matthew Russell may take votes from Young.  Nevertheless, Young has the edge between two strong candidates in this Republican-leaning district.

HD-83 – OPEN (Domino) – This is a dead even district taking in coastal and northern Palm Beach County.  Term-limited incumbent Carl Domino has faced very tight re-election battles over the past two cycles.  The Democrat is optometrist Mark Marciano.  The Republican is businessman Pat Rooney, the brother of Congressman Tom Rooney and a member of the Rooney family of Steelers football fame.  Marciano has raised a respectable $115K to Rooney’s $154K.  Given Rooney’s financial edge, name recognition, and the environment, the edge goes to Rooney.

HD-87 – OPEN (Hasner) – This is a dead even district, but trending blue, along the coast in Southern Palm Beach County.  Term-limited incumbent Adam Hasner has won re-election by impressive double-digit margins in spite of the tough district.  The Democrat is Assistant State Attorney Hava Holzhauer.  The Republican is Boca Raton City Council Member Bill Hager.  Holzhauer has raised $80K to Hager’s $158K.  With Hager’s financial advantage and higher profile, I expect him to win.

HD-91 – OPEN (Bogdanoff) – This is a slightly Republican district that runs along the cost of Broward County.  Incumbent Ellyn Bogdanoff was elected in 2004, had a semi-competitive race in 2006, and coasted to re-election in 2008.  She is vacating the seat to run for State Senate.  This is another battle between two attorneys: Democrat Barbra Stern and Republican George Moraitis.  Stern has raised $81K to Moraitis’s $114K.  Tea Party candidate John Perez could siphon votes away from Moraitis.  Nevertheless, the edge goes to Moraitis in a tough environment for Democrats.

HD-119 – OPEN (Zapata) – This is a majority Hispanic district in western Miami-Dade County, which is trending blue but has historically elected Republicans.  Term-limited incumbent Juan Zapata is quite popular in the district, and never faced a competitive re-election campaign.  The Democrat is Dade County Farm Bureau Executive Director Katie Edwards.  The Republican is insurance professional Frank Artiles, who has received much of his financial backing from the insurance industry.  Edwards has raised $190K to $154 for Artiles.  There are two third party candidates.  Nestor Iglesias is the obligatory Tea Party spoiler for Artiles, and Graziella Denny is an Indy candidate about whom I have been unable to find any substantive information.  This could be an interesting race, but the national environment and the district’s voting history suggest that Artiles is the favorite.

REPUBLICAN TARGETS

LEANS REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER

HD-11 – Boyd – This is a heavily Republican district in rural North Central Florida.  “Blue Dog” style incumbent Debbie Boyd won the district by 0.2% in a 2008 open seat contest over former Columbia County Commissioner Elizabeth Porter.  Porter is back for a second run.  Boyd has raised $152K to Porter’s $30K, and so she has a strong financial advantage.  She will need every penny.  I expect the electoral environment in this part of Florida to turn against Boyd emphatically, with Porter winning comfortably.  However, Tea Party candidate John Ferentinos may keep Boyd in the game.

TOSS-UP/TILTS REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER

HD-81 – Fetterman – This is a dead even district in the Port St. Lucie area, which is trending blue.  Incumbent Adam Fetterman won a 2008 open seat race by 5%.  This time around, he faces Gayle Harrell, who represented the district in the State House from 2001 to 2009.  Harrell won by large margins in the 2000, 2002, and 2004 elections, but faced a more competitive, 10 point race in 2008.  Fetterman has raised $168K to Harrell’s $171K.  In this environment, Harrell has a small edge in a race that is otherwise almost completely even in every respect.  

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

HD-09 – Rehwinkel-Vasilinda – This is a solidly Democratic district in Tallahassee and the surrounding areas.  Incumbent Michelle Rehwinkel-Vasilinda narrowly defeated African-American Florida State University football star Peter Boulware in an open seat contest in 2008.  Her opponent this time around is social worker Kirk Headley-Perdue, who in spite of her first name is a woman.  Rehwinkel-Vasilinda has raised $137K to Headley-Perdue’s $95K.  Rehwinkel-Vasilinda should hold on in this blue district against an opponent who lacks the unique local appeal of Boulware.

HD-51 – Long – This is a dead even district in southwestern Pinellas County.  Incumbent Janet Long won this seat in 2006 by less than 1%, and was re-elected in 2008 by a more comfortable 16%.  Her opponent is businessman Larry Ahern.  Long has raised $160K to Ahern’s $44K.  A purported March poll of the district, the details of which were not released, claimed a 7-point lead for Long.  Tea Party candidate Victoria Torres should only help Long to hold the seat.  Long should have an edge here, and it actually would not surprise me if the mystery poll turned out to be accurate.

HD-52 – Heller – This is a slightly Democratic district in the St. Petersburg area.  Incumbent Bill Heller won the seat in 2006 by 8%, and was re-elected in 2008 by 20%.  His opponent is businessman Jeff Brandes.  Heller has raised $89K to $134K for Brandes.  Heller is an institution in the area, and he should win despite a strong effort from Brandes.  

HD-69 – Fitzgerald – This is a dead even district based in Sarasota.  Fitzgerald was elected in 2006 by 2% and re-elected by only 4% in 2008.  His opponent is former Sarasota County Commissioner Ray Pilon, who has lost two races for Sarasota County Sheriff since leaving the County Commission.  Fitzgerald has raised $156K to Pilon’s $73K.  This could be a tough race, but Fitzgerald should hold on given his financial advantage.  He is used to being targeted, and Pilon is not the toughest candidate he has faced.

HD-107 – Garcia – This is a majority Hispanic, Miami area district, which is historically Republican but trending Democratic.  Incumbent Luis Garcia was elected to the seat in 2006 by 4%, and was re-elected in 2008 by 10%.  His opponent is Gustavo Barreiro, who represented the district in the State House from 1999 through 2007.  Mr. Barreiro was very popular while in office, coasting to re-election term after term.  However, after leaving office, he was fired from his job at the Department of Juvenile Justice when pornographic images were allegedly found on his computer.  Garcia has raised $122K to Barreiro’s $46K.  While I would not necessarily consider Barreiro’s porn problem disqualifying, Garcia has a distinct edge in light of both that incident and Garcia’s financial advantage.

I’m going to go way out on a limb and predict that the Republicans pick up somewhere between 15 and 63 seats.

The 15 seats I am pretty confident Dems will lose (in alphabetical order):

AR-02 – Might have been competitive with Wills.

IA-03 – Two Republican polls have Zaun up and I believe he is.

KS-03 – Not sure how Moore switcheroo can work in an anti-incumbent year.

LA-03 – Dems seem to be conceding this.

MS-01 – Nunnellee internal has him up 8, and I tend to believe it.

NH-02 – Well-known Bass way ahead in polls.

NY-29 – Dems seem to be conceding this.

OH-01 – Multiple polls show Driehaus down double digits.  I believe that he is down, though maybe not by that much.

OH-15 – Logic leads me to believe Kilroy is in similar shape as Driehaus.  

PA-07 – Huge internal poll lead for Meehan.

PA-11 – Big internal poll lead for Barletta.  Kanjorski is addicted to putting his foot in his mouth.

TN-06 – Dems seem to be conceding this.

TX-17 – Edwards beating Flores makes no sense to me after tight 2008 race with unfunded Curnock.

VA-02 – I believe the Rigell poll showing him ahead.

VA-05 – I don’t think Periello is down 23 like SUSA says, but I do believe he’s down.

Touted races I am pretty confident Dems will win:

CT-04 – Monster fundraising for Himes.

ID-01 – Labrador down big in his own poll.

IN-02 – Big lead for Donnelly in pro-lifer poll.

IN-09 – Young significantly down in his own poll.

KY-06 – Big lead for Chandler in independent poll.

NC-08 – PPP showed Kissell ahead by 6.

NJ-03 – Independent poll featured on front page shows Adler ahead.

NY-13 – Internal poll for McMahon has him way ahead.

PA-12 – Don’t see why Burns would win the second time around.

TN-04 – Republican internal had Davis up 11.

TX-23 – Republican internal had Rodriguez up.

VA-09 – SUSA has Boucher up big.

WV-01 – Oliviero up big in internal.

Races where I just don’t know:

AL-02 – Would bet a current poll would be much closer than dusty Bright internal.

AR-01 – Woolridge sour grapes hurting Causey, who otherwise should win this.

AZ-01 – This is a tough district and maybe a sleeper, but Republicans are underfunded.

AZ-05 – My gut tells me Mitchell may lose.  Tough, wealthy district.

AZ-08 – Hope Jesse Kelly is right with his primary poll.  He would be the easiest to beat.

CA-11 – Another sleeper.  Harmer is a real go-getter for the Republicans.

CO-04 – Tend to believe we’ll lose this, but no polling confirms it.

FL-02 – I’m somewhat doubtful of Southerland internal with him up 15.

FL-08 – No friggin’ clue.  Huge money advantage but internal from also ran Republican Todd Long shows Grayson down.

FL-22 – This will be one of the most expensive races in the country.

FL-24 – Crowded Republican primary may help Kosmas in tough district.  No polling.

GA-08 – Tend to feel good about Marshall, but would love to see a poll.

IL-11 – Multiple partisan polls show Kinzinger up.  I tend to believe it, but not quite convinced.

IL-14 – Big $$$ advantage for Foster.

IL-17 – Not in love with Hare’s response to Schilling internal showing himself up big.

IN-08 – Republicans should win this one, but Bucshon isn’t much of a candidate.

MA-10 – What a mess with all the third party candidates.  Would love to see a poll.

MD-01 – Conflicting polling, but I’m not feeling good about this one.

MI-01 – Tough call with Benishek in, knock on wood.  Weak fundrasing for McDowell.

MI-07 – Walberg internals have him up, but I’m not quite convinced.

MN-01 – Tend to think Walz will be OK.  Demmer raised serious $$$ last quarter though.

MO-04 – Tend to think Skelton will pull this out, but would love to see a poll.

NC-11 – Conflicting polling data.  Tend to think Shuler will be OK.

ND-AL – Last Rasmussen poll tight.  Pomeroy was reddest-district Dem to vote yeah on HCR.

NH-01 – Shea-Porter ahead in recent polling.

NM-01 – Conflicting polling.  My sense is that Heinrich is ahead by high single digits.

NM-02 – All polling on this has been tight.

NV-03 – Titus ahead in latest M/D poll.

NY-01 – This will be another enormously expensive race.

NY-19 – No friggin’ clue.  Would love to see a poll.  Self-funder Hayworth has $$$ advantage.

NY-20 – Was feeling good about this, but then Gibson came up with monster $$$ for Q2.

NY-23 – Have a feeling Hoffman will fuck this up for the Republicans one way or the other.

NY-24 – Everybody’s writing Arcuri off, but would love to see a poll.

OH-13 – We’ll see if money really IS everything.

OH-16 – Not sure if I believe Republican poll showing big Renacci lead.

OH-18 – Republican internal with race tied does not impress me much.

OR-05 – No polling but Republicans are talking this one up.

PA-03 – Conflicting polls here.  Wouldn’t be surprised if it is close.

PA-04 – Tend to like Altmire’s chances, but no polling so far.

PA-08 – Worried about this one, but no polling.

PA-10 – Huge $$$ lead for Carney.

SC-05 – PPP showed a small lead for Spratt some time ago.

SD-AL – Not sure I believe Rasmussen and his big Noem lead, but not sure I disbelieve it either.

TN-08 – Impressive Fincher primary victory makes me less sanguine on this one.

VA-11 – Not sure I’m buying Fimian internal showing lead.

WA-03 – Dem Heck has big $$$ advantage.

WI-07 – Historically Dem district, but Lassa is playing catchup in fundraising.

WI-08 – Could be a sleeper.  Crowded Republican primary may help Kagen.

Below are my death-defying, shark jumping Senate predictions.  Same method as my Governor predictions of days ago.  Only one major change from my prior Senate predictions, which is Harry Reid jumping out to a strong lead over Sharron Angle.  This leaves Democrats down two Senate seats, with Republicans picking up AR, CO, DE, IN, and ND, and Dems picking up FL, KY, and MO.  It is not lost on me that this is a very optimistic prediction, but it is what I really think is going to happen in my completely biased, die-hard Democratic little head.

AK – Murkowski (R) 60, McAdams (D) 34 – Would love to see GOP primary polling here.

AL – Shelby (R) 64, Barnes (D) 36 – Shelby will not need to break into his eight figure war chest.

AR – Boozman (R) 54, Lincoln (D) 43 – Lincoln has lots of $$$ and still a lot of Dems in AR.

AZ – McCain (R) 56, Glassman (D) 40 – McCain’s primary troubles have all but faded away.

CA – Boxer (D) 51, Fiorina (R) 45 -Boxer Q2 fundraising gives me confidence.

CO – Buck (R) 50, Bennet (D) 47 – Colorado still a pretty conservative state.

CT – Blumenthal (D) 56, McMahon (R) 43 – Blumenthal’s troubles way behind him.

DE – Castle (R) 53, Coons (D) 46 – Would love to see some GOP primary polling here.

FL – Crist (I) 42, Rubio (R) 39, Greene (D) 17 – Crist Q2 fundraising as an Indy was lights out.

GA – Isakson (R) 56, Thurmond (D) 42 – Barnes at top of ticket helps Thurmond keep it respectable.

HI – Inouye (D) 65, Roco (R) 33 – Should be no trouble for Inouye.

IA – Grassley (R) 57, Conlin (D) 42 – Strong recruit but not the year to take out Grassley.

ID – Crapo (R) 68, Sullivan (D) 30 – Crapo may break 70% here.

IL – Giannoulias (D) 49, Kirk (R) 45 – What a couple of pieces of work these guys are.

IN – Coats (R) 55, Ellsworth (D) 43 – Ellsworth Q2 fundraising was pretty lame.

KS – Moran (R) 64, Johnston (D) 33 – Johnston the surprising Dem primary leader.

KY – Conway (D) 50, Paul (R) 47 – Could Paul be any clearer that he doesn’t give a rip about the working man?

LA – Vitter (R) 48, Melancon (D) 47 – Third party conservative candidates keep this one very close.

MD – Mikulski (D) 64, Wargotz (R) 34 – Polling confirms big Mikulski lead.

MO – Carnahan (D) 51, Blunt (R) 48 – Classic close MO election.  Carnahan cleans up in KC and STL.

NC – Burr (R) 51, Marshall (D) 46 – Libertarian candidate helps keep this pretty close.

ND – Hoeven (R) 66, Potter (D) 32 – Hoeven could break 70% in an open seat race.

NH – Ayotte (R) 53, Hodes (D) 42 – Hodes has shown very little promise as a statewide candidate so far.

NV – Reid (D) 49, Angle (R) 41 – I never imagined Angle would be THIS much of a gift.

NY (A) – Schumer (D) 65, Townsend (R) 34 – Polling confirms big Schumer lead.

NY (B) – Gillibrand (D) 60, DioGuardi (R) 39 – Gillibrand taking nothing for granted with big Q2 haul.

OH – Portman (R) 49, Fisher (D) 48 – Why can’t Fisher raise money?  Is it all going to Strickland?

OK – Coburn (R) 68, Miles (D) 30 – At least we found some dudes to run against Coburn.

OR – Wyden (D) 59, Huffman (R) 39 – Polling looking good for Wyden after some scary Ras numbers.

PA – Sestak (D) 51, Toomey (R) 46 – Huge Q2 haul for Toomey a little daunting.  Pick it up, Joe!

SC – Demint (R) 74, Greene (D) 18, Clements (G) 8 – What … a … fiasco.

SD – Thune (R) unopposed – How could SD Dems not find a warm body to face freshman Thune?

UT – Lee (R) 65, Granato (D) 33 – Dems won’t be making any noise in Utah this cycle.

VT – Leahy (D) 61, Britton (R) 35 – Third party progressive candidates only thing keeping it this close.

WA – Murray (D) 51, Rossi (R) 47 – Wonder if Didier is making any headway in the primary.

WI – Feingold (D) 51, Johnson (R) 48 – We all love Feingold, but was he ever the best fit for WI?

WV – Manchin (D) 62, Ireland (R) 38 – May be generous to Ireland.  Capito sounds afraid to run.

So the mood has struck me to update my always very specific and always very speculative governor predictions.  For those of you scoring at home, there is not much science to this.  I used 2004 exit poll data to guess at the partisan composition of each state, and then allocated percentages to each candidate by party.  Then I did some simple arithmetic and came up with the numbers that you see below.  I used 2004 because it was the last year with crappy Dem turnout where exit polls were available for every state.  I tried my best to estimate what percentage of the vote would go to minor third party candidates by looking at historical data.  Any difference between the sum of the numbers listed below and 100 should be attributed to minor third party candidates.

Overall, I have a whopping 17 seats changing hands.  But it is a tempest in a teapot, with only one net seat going to the Republicans.  The eight Dem pickups are CA, CT, FL, GA, HI, MN, RI, and VT.  The nine GOP pickups are IA, IL, KS, MI, OK, PA, TN, WI, and WY.

AK – Parnell (R) 62, Berkowitz (D) 37 – Berkowitz is the best AK Dems have, but Parnell is popular.

AL – Bentley (R) 56, Sparks (D) 44 – Same story – strong Dem recruit may be wasted on tough year.

AR – Beebe (D) 63, Keet (R) 35 – Beebe has weathered the storm better than any Dem governor.

AZ – Brewer (R) 53, Goddard (D) 42 – Brewer suddenly the belle of the ball; she has clear momentum.

CA – Brown (D) 49, Whitman (R) 46 – Will be soul crushing if Whitman successfully buys this election.

CO – Hickenlooper (D) 52, McInnis (R) 43 – Hoping McInnis survives.  Hick in good shape if he does.

CT – Lamont (D) 52, Foley (R) 47 – Don’t have a lot of faith in Lamont, but it’s a very blue state.

FL – Sink (D) 44, Scott (R) 42, Chiles (I) 12 – Rick Scott should be behind bars.

GA – Barnes (D) 50, Handel (R) 46 – Repubs may kneecap themselves again by nominating an idiot.

HI – Abercrombie (D) 55, Aiona (R) 43 – This should be a sure Dem pickup, knock on wood.

IA – Branstad (R) 55, Culver (D) 43 – Too much bad polling out there for it to be a fluke.

ID – Otter (R) 57, Allred (D) 40 – Allred running strong at the top of the ticket will help Minnick.

IL – Brady (R) 47.2, Quinn (R) 46.8 – Quinn extremely unpopular, but Brady not an ideal candidate.

KS – Brownback (R) 61, Holland (D) 37 – Competes with Wyoming for easiest GOP pickup.

MA – Patrick (D) 46, Baker (R) 42, Cahill (I) 9 – Polls are encouraging here.

MD – O’Malley (D) 51, Ehrlich (R) 47 – Maryland is even more Democratic than it used to be.

ME – Mitchell (D) 46, LePage (R) 43, Cutler (I) 7 – Impressive primary win for LePage.  Will be tough.

MI – Hoekstra (R) 52, Bernero (D) 47 – Granholm administration a tough act to follow.

MN – Dayton (D) 47, Emmer (R) 40, Horner (I) 12 – DUI controversy ugly for Emmer.

NE – Heineman (R) unopposed – Heineman is the only unopposed governor.  Go NE Dems!

NH – Lynch (D) 55, Stephens (R) 43 – Tougher cycle for Lynch this time, but he will survive.

NM – Denish (D) 51, Martinez (R) 49 – Richardson administration weighs down Denish.  Will be tight.

NV – Sandoval (R) 55, Reid (D) 40 – Why couldn’t we find ANYONE else for this one?

NY – Cuomo (D) 67, Lazio (R) 31 – Biggest ass kicking of the cycle for governors.

OH – Strickland (D) 49, Kasich (R) 48 – Strickland narrowly holds on thanks to attackable opponent.

OK – Fallin (R) 55, Edmondson (D) 45 – Another great recruit may be wasted on a tough year.

OR – Kitzhaber (D) 51, Dudley (R) 44 – Dudley getting bad press about ducking debates.

PA – Corbett (R) 51, Onorato (D) 46 – Unpopular Rendell administration drags down Onorato.

RI – Caprio (D) 41, Chafee (I) 37, Robitaille (R) 20 – Race is polling close, but Caprio has room to grow.

SC – Haley (R) 53, Sheheen (D) 46 – Grassroots energy behind Haley undeniable, but she could fuck it up in a variety of ways.

SD – Daugaard (R) 58, Heidepreim (D) 42 – Daugaard wins battle of great Dutch names.

TN – Haslam (R) 56, McWherter (D) 42 – Some polling out on this now, and it’s not pretty.

TX – Perry (R) 47.4, White (D) 46.8 – White could very well win this, but it will be unbelievably tough.

UT – Herbert (R) 63, Corroon (D) 34 – It’s still Utah.

VT – Markowitz (D) 49.1, Dubie (R) 48.9 – This is optimistic, but Dem candidates have room to grow.

WI – Walker (R) 50, Barrett (D) 48 – Unpopular Doyle administration a drag on Barrett.

WY – Simpson (R) 62, Petersen (D) 35 – Competes with Kansas for easiest GOP pickup.