Month: November 2006

The goal is simple: Blue Majority wants to raise $10,000 for Democrat Karen Carter this week. I’ve already laid out in detail exactly why we’re backing Carter in her runoff against the corrupt William Jefferson, and I encourage you to read that earlier post. But the most important point is this one: We need to send a message that we won’t tolerate corruption on the part of any public official, regardless of party.

Jefferson has a long rap sheet and doesn’t deserve to be a part of the Democratic caucus. If we’re going to run a clean House, then we need to clean house first. Karen Carter can beat Jefferson, but she needs our help. We’ve already raised some cash for her, but I know we can do more. So let’s get her another ten grand this week from the grassroots. The runoff is soon – Dec. 9th – so time is short.

Let’s get to work!

On Oct. 24th, 2006, Survey USA released the last batch of Senate approval ratings before the election. Who were the least popular senators facing re-election?

1. Santorum, -19% net approval
2. DeWine, -17% net approval
3. Burns, -16% net approval
4. Menendez, -13% net approval
5. Talent, -5% net approval
6. Chafee, -1% net approval
7. Kyl, 0% net approval
8. Allen, +1% net approval

Are approval ratings a good way of determining which incumbents are vulnerable? DUH, YES!

Below the flip, let’s see how the class of 2008 is looking. Hey, do you smell that? Smells like… Wayne Allard. Yeah, he’s a little over-ripe. Prepare for harvest!

Bottom of the class: Least popular senators, class of 2008:

1. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ), -12% net approval
2. James Inhofe (R-OK), -9% net approval
3. Wayne Allard (R-CO), -4% net approval
4. John Cornyn (R-TX), -3% net approval

Paging Brad Henry, Mark Udall, and Chet Edwards… strong challengers wanted!

If we managed to pick off George Allen, we can defeat Inhofe and Cornyn with the right challenger. Yes, we can, even in Texas and Oklahoma.

Of course, fortunes can change… One year before that poll was taken, on Oct. 17, 2005, Lincoln Chafee had 19% net approval. Don’t let today’s approval rates discourage you too much, because things can change. Chafee’s steady, quiet fall from grace proves that. John Kyl had a net approval of +17% in August – a good, hard campaign can do a lot. George Allen had a +31% approval rating in December.

Now, for God’s sake, can we please stop saying that Lautenberg is safe? He’s overdue for his next retirement. If you want to see him re-elected, he’s going to have to save a few drowning puppies or something.

So, what about the rest of the class?

Lamar Alexander (R-TN), +3%
Norm Coleman (R-MN), +5%
Pat Roberts (R-KS), +6%
Carl Levin (D-MI), +6%
Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), +7%
Tom Harkin (D-IA), +7%
Mary Landrieu (D-LA), +10%
Lindsey Graham (R-SC), +10%
Gordon Smith (R-OR), +11%
John Sununu (R-NH), +11%
Mitch McConnell (R-KY), +12%
Richard Durbin (D-IL), +13%
John Kerry (D-MA), +14%
Jeff Sessions (R-AL), +19%
Joe Biden (D-DE), +19%
Elizabeth Dole (R-NC), +20%
Mark Pryor (D-AR), +24%
Michael Enzi (R-WY), +27%
Pete Domenici (R-NM), +31%
John Warner (R-VA), +31%
Max Baucus (D-MT), +31%
Ted Stevens (R-AK), +32%
Thad Cochran (R-MS), +33%
Larry Craig (R-ID), +33%
Jay Rockefeller (D-WV), +34%
Jack Reed (D-RI), +38%
Tim Johnson (D-SD), +46%
Susan Collins (R-ME), +48%

Conclusions:

1. I wouldn’t start worrying about Tim Johnson just yet. He’s almost as popular as Kent Conrad. Unless Gov. Mike Rounds challenges Johnson, this seat is safe. Against Rounds, I’d still give the edge to Johnson by a fair amount.

2. I wouldn’t get too excited about a Collins vs. Allen matchup. She’s almost as popular as Olympia Snowe. What’s Allen gonna do, knock her margin of victory down to 15%? Let’s hope she defects or retires.

3. Warner vs. Warner – competitive maybe, but not likely to be a win for Mark. Let’s hope John retires.

4. Max Baucus is safe. And I mean Kent Conrad safe.

5. Mark Pryor is safe. With Beebe as the new governor, it’s clear that Arkansas votes Dem on anything that isn’t Presidential.

6. John Sununu and Gordon Smith are good targets, if we can knock them down. They’re popular enough now, but a good candidate running a good campaign could knock either of them into vulnerability with some hard work.

7. Graham = Akaka. Those who don’t approve of his performance are probably not likely to vote for his opponent, either.

8. Landrieu is defensible. +10% is a good base to work from.

9. Harkin and Levin have a little work to do. Hopefully their majority status will raise their image some.

10. Saxby Chamblis and Pat Roberts ain’t untouchable! I’d rate them as Likely Republican now, but a great candidate could beat either. Yes, even in Kansas!

11. Lamar Alexander and Norm Coleman can be defeated.

12. Cornyn and Inhofe need conservative Dem challengers who will fight against these two incumbents. Do that, and we win.

13. Defense in New Jersey – maybe we should encourage Lautenberg to retire.

14. Allard’s going down!!!

(From the diaries. If Ciro can’t do it this year, this seat is clearly a ripe pick-up opporunity in 2008. – promoted by James L.)

Of the 10 US House seats still not called, 2 of them are because they are actual run-off elections. Of the two, one is between 2 Democrats. The other, here in Texas, is between former Netroots candidate Ciro Rodriguez and Rep. Henry Bonilla, who is soon to lose his seat because of court ordered redistricting changes.

On November 7th, the Republican vote total was 48%. The combined Democratic total was 49% though only 20% was Ciro’s. The seat is ready to be taken but some ask why there has been a wait.

A couple things. Right now I can tell you that there have been talks between the DCCC and folks in San Antonio. Someone has been asked to draw up a mail/TV/field budget for a one month long run-off campaign.  They have asked around in the district to see if there is someone to run a field program, one possibility being a friend of mine who just spent the last year helping to elect a Democratic state Senator and then hold his open state House seat last Tuesday.

In a couple days, I have been made aware that new online tools will become available for Democrats across Texas (and beyond) to call Democrats in TX-23 in a system very much like MoveOn’s call for change. They were built by former state Rep. Glen Maxey who nearly took over the chairmanship of the Texas Democratic Party this June and just got done successfully running the Austin area coordinated campaign that picked up 1 state house seat, 1 Justice of the Peace, and 1 3rd Court of Appeals seat.  These are www.TrueBlueAction.com and www.OnlinePhoneBanking.com.

Netroots candidate John Courage, who just wrapped up his campaign this afternoon is in the process of transferring his San Antonio volunteers and staff to help out Ciro in any way they can. Former TX-23 candidate Lukin Gilliland has apparently offered up his campaign staff and team (whom I’m familiar with and are good folks) to help out Ciro as well.

Of course, the district won’t be won without a lot of money and volunteer investment. As of now, that major commitment hasn’t been declared yet. But I wanted to let folks know, that things are in the works.

(From the diaries. I like maps. – promoted by James L.)

This is the second in a series of diaries graphically depicting the Democratic victory in this year’s midterm elections. The first diary in this series covering New England may be seen here.

Today we will be looking at Democratic gains in New York, both in the city and upstate.  First, the money shot, maps detailing simple change in district control, because no seats changes hand in the NYC area the city inset will only be displayed after the fold under the 2006 results.

2004

2006

NYC

Of 3,561,072 votes cast in 2006 US House races in New York,  2,285,020 (64.2%) were cast for Democrats, while 1,266,295 (35.2%) were cast for Republicans.

Democrats took the open seat in the NY-24 (Utica), with Arcuri (D) defeating Meier (R) by 16,469 votes, 53.8% D to 45.2% R.

Democrats defeated Republican incumbents in the NY-19 and NY-20. In the NY-19 (Orange/Putnam County), Democrat John Hall beat Republican incumbent Sue Hall by 13,642 votes votes, 51.2% D to 48.8% R. In the NY-20 (Upper Hudson valley) Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand defeated Republican incumbent John Sweeney by 13,642 votes, 53.1% D to 46.9% R.

The following map shows Democratic gains over their 2004 Democratic performance in the district (in % terms), improvements of less than 5% will be displayed in light blue, under 10% in the darker blue, and over 10% in the darkest blue. Republican gains will be shown in the same manner, with the light red signifying a gain of less than 5% and so on. Races that were contested in neither year will be displayed in gray.

The single greatest Democratic gain in a race contested by Republicans in 2004 was in the NY-27 (South Buffalo) where Democratic incumbent Brian Higgins surged by 25.9% over his 2004 performance.  Democratic candidates in the NY-19, NY-20, and NY-24 all improved upon 2004 Democratic performance by more than 10%. Candidates in the NY-1, NY-3, NY-20, NY-22, and NY-29 all improved upon 2004 Democratic performance by over 5%.  Again, the races coded in the light blue showed less than 5% improvement over 2004.  The only red spot was in the NY-18 where Democratic incumbent Nita Lowey saw her vote share drop from 81.3% in 2004 to a mere 70.3% this year. This is the only kind of victory Republicans could muster in the Empire state.

Looking more closely at the margin of victory in 2006 races & the scale of Democratic victory in this midterm, and pickup opportunities emerge, the following map displays the margin of victory in 2006 races. The deepest blue represents and Democratic margin of victory over 10%, the medium color represent more than 5%, while the lightest blue indicates that the Democratic candidate won by less than 5%. Corresponding measures of Republican victory margins display progressively darker shades of red at the same intervals.

What emerges is a map to guide our 2008 strategy. Beginning with this edition of the series I will be producing a tier system for 2008 races based upon the results of the 2006 returns.  Tier 0 races are those where the Democratic candidate won by a margin of less than 5%, the presumption being that incumbency grants an advantage of 5-10% that with the fundraising advantage that comes with holding office should be sufficient for these candidates to defend their seats without funding from the party.  The assumption that incumbency gives a 5-10% advantage drives the classification of the pickup categories.  Tier 1 races are those where the incumbent won by less than 5% in 2006, while tier 2 races are those where Republicans won by less than 10%.

Tier 0

Race      D%      R%     Margin    2006 D Cand.

NY-19     51.2    48.8   6.1       John Hall

Tier 1

Race      D%      R%     Margin    2006 D Cand.

NY-25     49.1    50.9   1.9       Dan Maffei

NY-29     48.5    51.5   3.1       Eric Massa

NY-26     48.1    51.9   3.7       Jack Davis

Tier 2

Race      D%      R%     Margin    2006 D Cand.

No races meet the criteria for this tier.

While our one defend NY-19 is near NYC in Orange/Putnam counties, the 3 2008 Dem Pickup opportunties are in Western New York with the NY-25 in the Rochester/Syracuse area the NY-26 is between Rochester and Buffalo, and the NY-29 is immediately to the south of that. Jack Davis self funded his campaign run on a pro-fair trade message, while Massa and Maffei were relative newcomers to politics.  (New Yorkers please correct me if I got this wrong.)

Building upon the Tier 0 race in the NH-01 and the Tier 1 race in the CT-04, this means that my running total shows two Tier 0 races to defend in 2008 and four Tier 1 pickup opportunities.  I strongly believe that if we want to win we need to maintain our infrastructure in these close races. If our 2006 candidates want to run in 2008, absent a compelling reason to challenge them in the primary.  And if we know who the 2008 candidate is going to be we need a continuing netroots effort to give these candidates a running start on 2008. In the form of seed money, the netroots can press forward on our 2006 Democratic gains defining the battlefield for 2008.  We must not allow the Republicans to define the battlefield for the next cycle, and only by providing minimial funding to allow the candidate to retain a single staffer to fundraise and keep the infrastructure intact can we make this work.

This is a logical continuation of the 50 State Strategy, by keeping the infrasructure intact there’s no need to start all over in 2008, and that will allow campaigns to be more efficient in their use of funds. If we can avoid the first spending the first $25,000-$50,000 needed to reconstitute the campaign infrastructure in each cycle we will be able press further into Republican held districts.  Our goal must  be to contain the  Republicans to their base in the Deep South, no Copperhead must go unchallenged.

Somewhat obscured by the hoopla of the Democrats picking up 6 seats in the Senate and 29+ seats (at this point) in the House of Representatives is the deep blue surge by Democrats in state legislatures around the country. Using data from a number of sources including the DLCC, Wikipedia, and various news outlets, I’ve managed to construct a detailed breakdown of Democratic and Republican gains in state legislatures this past Tuesday. This chart isn’t 100% accurate–some races have yet to be called–so if you have a correction or an update, please let me know so I can amend these totals accordingly. Additionally, the situation in Montana is a bit tenuous. While the Republicans did manage to make enough gains in the state Senate (including, I might add, an easy pick-up of Jon Tester’s open seat) to pull even in the body, one Republican Senator, Sam Kitzenberg, is considering defecting to the Democratic Party or becoming an independent depending on the outcome of a House race recount. Kitzenberg, an admirer of Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer, says he wants to ensure that the Governor has a “foothold somewhere, either in the Senate or the House”. So look for Montana’s totals to change accordingly once the dust is settled.

By my initial count, Democrats netted 268 pick-ups in state Houses and 60 pick-ups in state Senates. Republican pick-ups? A lowly eight in state House races and eight in state Senate races. Democrats won enough seats to take control of the following chambers: the Indiana House, the New Hampshire House and Senate, the Iowa House and Senate, the Minnesota House, the Michigan House, the Wisconsin Senate, and the Oregon House. See below for the full carnage:

State	Senate	Margin	House	Margin
Alabama	R+2	23D-12R	N/C	62D-43R
Alaska	D+1	11R-9D	D+3	23R-17D
Arizona	N/C	18R-12D	D+7	32R-28D
Arkansas	N/C	27D-8R	D+3	75D-25R
California	N/C	24D-15R-1?	N/C	42D-32R
Colorado	D+2	20D-15R	D+4	39D-26R
Connecticut	D+1	25D-11R	D+6	105D-46R
Delaware	N/C	13D-8R	D+3	22R-18D
Florida	N/C	26R-14D	D+7	78R-42D
Georgia	N/C	34R-22D	R+2	105R-74D-1?
Hawaii	N/C	20D-5R	D+2	43D-8R
Idaho	N/C	28R-7D	D+6	51R-19D
Illinois	D+5	37D-22R	?	65D-49R-4?
Indiana	N/C	33R-17D	D+3	51D-49R
Iowa	D+4	29D-21R	D+5	54D-45R
Kansas	N/C	30R-10D	D+6	77R-48D
Kentucky	N/C	21R-16D	D+5	61D-39R
Louisiana	N/C	24D-15R	D+1	63D-41R
Maine	R+1	18D-17R	D+15	89D-60R
Maryland	D+1	34D-13R	D+10	108D-33R
Massachusetts	D+1	35D-5R	D+4	141D-18R-1?
Michigan	D+1	19R-17D-2?	D+6	58D-52R
Minnesota	D+6	44D-23R	D+20	86D-48R
Mississippi	N/C	27D-23R-2?	N/C	75D-46R-1?
Missouri	D+2	21R-13D	D+5	91R-71D
Montana	R+2	25D-25R	?	49D-50R-1?
Nevada	D+1	11R-10D	D+1	27D-15R
New Hampshire	D+6	14D-10R	D+84	234D-156R
New Jersey	N/C	22D-18R	N/C	49D-31R
New Mexico	N/C	24D-18R	N/C	42D-28R
New York	N/C	34R-27D-1?	N/C	105D-45R
North Carolina	D+2	31D-19R	D+5	68D-52R
North Dakota	D+6	26R-21D	D+6	61R-33D
Ohio	D+1	21R-12D	D+7	53R-46D
Oklahoma	R+2	24D-24R	D+1	56R-45D
Oregon	N/C	17D-11R	D+4	31D-29R
Pennsylvania	N/C	29R-21D	D+7	101D-101R-1?
Rhode Island	N/C	33D-5R	D+1	61D-14R
South Carolina	N/C	26R-20D	N/C	72R-50D-2?
South Dakota	D+5	20R-15D	D+1	50R-20D
Tennessee	D+1	17R-16D	N/C	53D-46R
Texas	R+1	20R-11D	D+5	81R-69D
Utah	N/C	21R-8D	N/C	56R-19D
Vermont	D+2	23D-7R	D+10	93D-49R
Virginia	N/C	23R-17D	N/C	57R-40D
Washington	D+6	32-17R	D+7	62D-36R
West Virginia	D+2	23D-11R	D+4	72D-28R
Wisconsin	D+4	18D-15R	D+7	53R-46D
Wyoming	N/C	23R-7D	D+3	43R-17D
Net	D+52		D+260

A pretty amazing breakdown, isn’t it? Take Minnesota, for example. Over the past two election cycles, the DFL has managed to reverse an 81-53 Republican majority in the state House into a lopsided 86-48 Democratic majority. Similarly, the Democratic tidal wave in New Hampshire is nothing short of historical and breathtaking, with Democrats controlling both bodies of the state legislature for the first time since the late 1800s, if I’m not mistaken!

Why is this important? Aside from some legislatures controlling congressional redistricting powers, and aside from the political capital to deliver on Democratic priorities on the state and local level, Democratic gains in state legislatures are crucial for building the “farm team” for higher offices. Just take some of the gains made in Congress this cycle, and look at their political resumes. Chris Murphy? State Senator. Jon Tester? State Senator. Charlie Wilson? State Senator. Ed Perlmutter? State Senator. Joe Courtney (fingers-crossed)? State Representative. The list goes on.

Much of the credit for the blue surge should be given to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, whose partnership with Actblue.com helped activate online fundraising for candidates in state legislative races across the country. They helped such candidates raise around $250,000 online–in a very abbreviated time frame. With Actblue.com now operational in time for the full 2008 cycle, the power of online fundraising for state legislative candidates has just started to be tapped.

(Bumped – promoted by DavidNYC)

I think you guys are gonna like this. Based on this suggestion from Terry312, I went ahead and created a brand new wiki at WetPaint.com called 2008 Race Tracker. The name is pretty self-explanatory: This wiki is designed to be a database for information on all 2008 House, Sen and Gov races. The main focus now is inputting candidate information, both incumbents and possible challengers.

The WetPaint system is incredibly easy to use – everything is WYSIWYG (What You See Is What You Get). If you’ve ever waded into Wikipedia and quailed at the thought of editing its quirky code, fear no more. Absolutely no code of any kind is necessary to create pages on WetPaint. The only thing you’ll need to do is create a user account, which takes 30 seconds. (I set this requirement to ward against vandalism.)

I’ve created easy-to-use templates for each type of race which I strongly encourage you to use. (Here’s an example of what a page ideally looks like.) The idea is to create a page for each race, so we have a lot of info to fill in. I figure our first objective should be to fill in all the incumbent data. Anyhow, check out the main wiki page for some more info and just jump right in! This should be fun.

This is the first in what will hopefully be a series of diaries examining the results of the Democratic victory in the 2006 midterm election.  Particular attention will be given to the margin of victory to locate GOP targets and Democratic defends for 2008.

Today we will be looking at the Democratic takeover of New England

2004

2006

More after the flip.

Perhaps more striking than Democrats taking 6 House seats from Republican incubments in New England is just how close (6645 votes) Democrats came to a shutout taking the CT-04 from moderate Republican Christ Shays.  In Massachusetts Republicans didn’t even bother to run candidate in 6 of 10 House races, and elsewhere relatively few races were close.  Below I have created a shaded map to indicate vote margin, both Red and Blue are divided into 3 shades.  The lightest shade of red or blue indicates that the races was decided by less than 5%, the medium shade is less than 10%, and the darkest shade indicates the victory was over 10%.

Looking through races contested in both 2004 and 2006 (and excluding VT-AL due it being held by Independent Bernie Sanders in 2004) a clearer picture of the wave that swept Democrats into seats previously held by Republicans can be seen.

The single largest vote gain (in % terms) by a Democrat between 2004 and 2006 was in the CT-05 where the Democratic vote share surged 34% from 38.2% in 2004 to 56.2% in 2006.  In the CT-02 the Democratic candidate still hold a narrow lead, however the race has not yet been called.  In the CT-04, Chris Shays had a near (career) death experience, winning his race by a mere 3.2%.  As the lone remaining Republican in New England he should be a target for Democratic defection, with active efforts to woo him.  And if he won’t make the change, then he needs to end up like Lincoln Chaffee.

In New Hampshire Democratic candidate eked out narrow victories.  In the NH-01, the margin of victory was 3.1%  a 29.9% gain over the 36.6% showing of the Democratic candidate in 2004.  In the NH-02, Paul Hodes’s margin of victory was 6.1%, a 26.2% improvement over that 2004 showing at 38.2% for the Democratic candidate.

Looking forward to 2008, the CT-04, the sole remaining Republican seat in New England should be a pickup target if Shays doesn’t have the sense to do what’s right.  Democratic victories in the CT-05, NH-01, NH-02, and VT-AL will have to be defended because they all are likely Republican pickup targets with 2006 victory margins under 10 points.  Once the status of the CT-02 has been resolved we’ll know whether this is a seat that we will need to defend or a pickup opportunity.

For all the talk of a Solid South with Republicans dominating, nothing comes close to the level of victory that Democrats have achieved in New England.  New England Republicans at the federal level are on the brink of extinction, if Democratic candidates who took Republican seats concentrate on constituent service to build up an incumbency advantage we will be able to speak of a total realignment in New England.

That’s it for New England.  My next diary will focus on New York.   The ETA for that should be sometime next week.

(Bumped – promoted by DavidNYC)

There are no breaks here at the Swing State Project! One election cycle ends and another begins. I don’t just mean that in a technical sense, either. Several candidates who had little or no prior political experience were able to compensate for that in part by getting a very early start. Paul Hodes, Patrick Murphy and Eric Massa would be some good examples.

Now, I doubt that many people apart from presidential hopefuls) are going to be announcing any runs for office this quickly, but it’s still fun to think about. Here are some topics worth considering:

• Which Senate seats should be our top priority in 2008, both on offense and defense?

• Which members of the House might retire at the end of their terms? How about during their terms (being in the minority sucks), prompting special elections? Who is ready to run in the event of a retirement? This is something to keep a close eye on all next year.

• Who are our most vulnerable new Reps going to be? What, if anything, can we do to help protect them apart from the obvious – ie, giving them tons of scrilla?

Plenty of food for thought!

[Cross-posted at Daily Kos, MyDD, Swing State Project, and My Left Wing.]

“You win some.  You lose some.  And then there’s that little known third category.”  – Al Gore –

In 2006, there were nineteen netroots candidates.  Seven of them were elected.  Eight of them lost.  Three (Darcy Burner, Larry Kissell, Gary Trauner) are still locked in tight counts or recounts.  Not a bad record for a list that in 2004 went 0-for-15.

But what we’re liable to forget is that one of our candidates is still out there facing not just a recount, but an actual election — and one in which he has a fighting chance of winning.  With all the euphoria about our smashing victory on November 7th, we should not neglect one of our own in his electoral battle just because the race isn’t essential to our control of Congress.  If we are to be a viable political movement, we need to practice loyalty to our candidates, no matter what the circumstances of their run.

I’m talking, of course, about former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez.

As you may recall, when we last saw Ciro, he had just lost a contentious and hard-fought primary against DINO Congressman Henry Cuellar.  For most candidates, defeat in a primary spells the end of their candidacies for at least one election cycle.  But Ciro was given a chance to rise like a phoenix from the ashes because of a quirk in the Texas districting process.

In August, a federal judge struck down part of Tom DeLay’s Texas redistricting plan, arguing that it disadvantaged Hispanics.  The redrawn district map removed Ciro from Cuellar’s district and placed him in a district held by a Republican, Henry Bonilla.  Bonilla’s district, accordingly, was changed from a Republican area into a truly swing district.  Finally, a special election was set for the district: anyone who filed could run on November 7th, but if one candidate failed to win fifty percent outright, the top two candidates would move on to a runoff in December.

Ciro, along with six other candidates, signed up to challenge Bonilla in the new district.  He made some mistakes coming out of the gate, including dropping out and then dropping back in.  After this misstep, most commentators painted the race as finished: Bonilla would stroll to an outright majority on November 7.

But all by himself, with no help from either the national party or the netroots, Ciro managed to hold Bonilla below the magic 50% mark.  The final results (from CNN:

Bonilla (R): 48%
Rodriguez (D): 20%
Uresti (D): 12%
Gilliland (D): 11%
Stephens (I): 3%
Beltran (D): 2%
Bolanos (D): 2%
DeLeon (D): 2%

For the uninitiated, Gilliand, a wealthy Democrat, was supposed to be Ciro’s main competition for the second spot; his anemic totals are a testament to Ciro’s strength in the new district.

In addition to these encouraging numbers, knocking off Bonilla would be an important step in bringing Texas back into the Democratic fold.  BBonilla fashions himself the next Senator from Texas and is backed by heavyweights such as Phil Gramm and former Congressman Tom Loeffler.  Beating such a rising star in Texas Republican politics would serve notice that Democrats are not giving up in Texas any time soon.

I could go on and on, but I’ll let Ciro speak for himself:

Dear Fellow Texans,

Good Afternoon!

I thank the citizens of the 23rd District for their votes and confidence in me. I ask all Democrats and voters of the 23rd to join us to win this December run-offelection, and make history.

It would be my honor and privilege to represent you as Congressman for the 23rd Congressional District of Texas. I humbly ask for your support and vote.

As election day is here, I want to ask you to vote and your families vote. I ask you to help get everyone you know to go vote for Ciro D. Rodriguez for Congress. Your support in what is no doubt one of the most critical races of 2006 is important and it can make a difference.

This congressional district stretches from South San Antonio in Bexar County, west to the eastern edge of El Paso County and south along the U.S./Mexico border from El Paso to Eagle Pass. It is home to Big Bend National Park our most pristine wilderness area. It is urban and rural. Its diversity is what makes it beautiful. I feel confident that I have the experience, shared values and background to represent you.

I believe this race matters to you. For 14 years, this district has been represented by an incumbent whose ties to special interests are much stronger than his ties to this district. As a congressman, Henry Bonilla has voted to cut federal college student aid by $12.7 billion, voted to erode worker’s rights and overtime protection. He voted in favor of national budgets resulting in a debt of almost 9 trillion dollars. Gasoline prices are through the roof, but, Bonilla’s friends in the oil industry rake in record profits. However, Bonilla continues to vote to give the energy companies subsidies and tax breaks. He continues to support a war in Iraq with no exit strategy.

Our call to action is the same one that echoes throughout this country: Let’s turn this country around…Enough is enough—let’s bring back America.

As I have visited the counties and cities in the district, my belief that this office belongs to you, the people and not special interests has been strengthened. I have served in Congress for four terms and as past chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. I’ve worked to ensure the delivery of clean safe water to border communities. I have worked and will continue to fight for affordable health care and real prescription drug coverage at lower costs. With your support, I will continue to speak out for more monies to fund student loans and decreasing their interest rates because our future rests with our young people.

As a member of the Armed Services Committee, I voted against the authorization for the war in Iraq. However, I will continue the fight for all our veterans to get the services they and their families need.

With your help, we can seize this opportunity to unseat this out of touch republican incumbent. Together, we can change the balance of power in a congress that is taking America in the wrong direction. I believe we are at an important crossroads for our country. The battle for the control of congress is a battle for the direction of this country. Times like these call for a change in congress.

Individual supporters such as you—and not special interests—will allow me to join my Democratic colleagues. Please consider sending a contribution of $25.00, $50.00, $100.00, or $250.00 today. Federal law allows contributions to this special election of up to $2100.00 per individual. Make checks payable to: Ciro D. Rodriguez for Congress. Please send your generous contribution to: PO Box 14528, San Antonio, TX 78214 or online at www.cirodrodriguez.com. Your personal contribution is critical. Together, we can win this seat and bring America back to the people.

Sincerely,

Ciro Rodriguez

How can you help?  Sign up to volunteer for or get e-mails from Ciro.  Donate to his campaign.  And most importantly, don’t let up the pressure.  We should and we CAN win this seat.  Whether we do or not is entirely up to us.

Florida largely missed the boat on the Democratic wave that overwhelmed America Tuesday.  Sure, Dems gained 3 seats in Congress, 7 in the legislature and one in the cabinet, but that limited success is behind what much of the rest of the country experienced.  Why?  Because the Florida Progressive Coalition isn’t fully functional yet.  There is no progressive infrastructure in the state.  There is no progressive communication in the state.  There is no progressive fundraising base in the state.  There are few progressive bloggers actually blogging about Florida and our media doesn’t get the job done.  That’s why we need your help.  We’re trying to change things in Florida.  Florida has the 2nd most conservative policy in the country (after South Dakota), most of our elected officials are Republicans — many of them total whackjobs.  And we just ironically passed a law by 58% that requires 60% of the population to pass further laws.  Something is wrong in the Sunshine State.  We think we have a plan to fix it.  Join us.  Check out our blog.  Check out our Wiki.  Check out our mission.  And then join us.  Florida is a blue state, it just doesn’t know it yet.  Leave a comment or e-mail me at quinnelk@hotmail.com.