Month: January 2007

(What a relief. Will Colorado go blue in 2008? Discuss. – promoted by James L.)

From the New York Times:

Democrats Said to Pick Denver for `08 Convention

By ADAM NAGOURNEY
Published: January 11, 2007

It’s not exactly a “New York: Drop Dead” kind of moment, but the Democratic National Committee has decided to hold the party’s 2008 nominating convention in Denver, according to Democrats familiar with the decision, heading West in rejecting a bid from New York to hold it there.

The announcement will be made by Howard Dean, the party chairman, later today. Democratic officials had been drawn to Denver for political reasons – Colorado is becoming an increasingly hospitable territory for Democrats – but had held back because of concerns over the availability of hotel rooms and ongoing union unrest there. Democrats said they believed both potential problems had been resolved.

The last Democratic convention held in New York was 1992.

Thought you all would be interested in this report from Don Walton in yesterday’s Lincoln Journal-Star:

Attorney General Jon Bruning led a December poll measuring the strength of potential Republican  successors to Sen. Chuck Hagel if Hagel chooses not to seek re-election next year.

The survey was commissioned by David Sokol of Omaha, chairman and CEO of MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company. The results have been making the rounds in GOP circles in Omaha and Lincoln.

Here are some of the matchups in the poll:

* Bruning, 52 percent; [Former Omaha Mayor Hal] Daub, 20 percent.

* Bruning, 54 percent; [2006 nominee Pete] Ricketts, 24 percent.

* Bruning, 38 percent; [Rep. Lee] Terry, 22 percent.

* Bruning, 40 percent; [Rep. Jeff] Fortenberry, 20 percent.

* Bruning, 36 percent; Ricketts, 21 percent; Daub, 16 percent, in a three-way race.

Here is what is most interesting about these results, to me:

– They are intentionally skewed in favor of Bruning, using two-way matchups to overstate the actual support that Bruning has among Republican primary voters.
– That said, they do demonstrate that Bruning is relatively strong at this early stage.
– It’s very interesting that despite his horrendous performance in the 2006 general, Ricketts draws anywhere from 21-25% support among Republicans.

Now, there is still no telling who is running in 2008, and a poll 16 months out from the primary doesn’t do us a whole lot of good. But it provides an interesting snapshot – and a very clear indication that Jon Bruning is running for Senate in 2008.

In a bit of a surprise announcement during his swearing in ceremony, Illinios House Speaker and Democratic Party Chairman, Michael Madigan suggested Illinois should move up its primary date from Mid March to the first week of February, according to the Chicago Tribune.

More on the flip

The stated purpose for the suggestion would be to help Illinois’ own, Barack Obama gain early momentum in the Presidential Primary race (I guess we ignore Hillary Clinton’s Illinois roots, which is fine by me). 

The secondary impact though is probably the more relevant.  Illinois has always been an afterthought in the presidential nominating process.  It hasn’t played a vital role in the Democratic party’s nominating process in over 20 years, despite its solid blue status and its 21 electoral votes in the general election.

Even if Obama doesn’t gain the nomination, his rumored run may have real impact on Illinois polictics in the future.

I already posted lists ranking the 132 most vulnerable members of the House and the 60 most vulnerable House Democrats.  Rankings are based on PVI, 2004 incumbent or incumbent party performance and 2006 incumbent performance.  Those who received less than 55% of the vote in 2006 are in bold, and House fresh(wo)men are in italics.  Although these rankings are far from definitive, they do provide one with a sense of how the landscape will appear in 2008.

1 CT-04 (SHAYS) D+5
2 WA-08 (REICHERT) D+2
3 PA-06 (GERLACH) D+2
4 NM-01 (WILSON) D+2
5 NV-03 (PORTER) D+1
6 NJ-07 (FERGUSON) R+1
7 NC-08 (HAYES) R+3
8 PA-15 (DENT) D+2
9 MI-09 (KNOLLENBERG) R+0
10 IL-06 (ROSKAM) R+3

11 FL-13 (BUCHANAN) R+4
12 OH-15 (PRYCE) R+1
13 MN-06 (BACHMANN) R+5
14 MI-07 (WALBERG) R+2
15 AZ-01 (RENZI) R+2
16 MI-11 (McCOTTER) R+1
17 NY-26 (REYNOLDS) R+3
18 NY-29 (KUHL) R+5
19 CO-04 (MUSGRAVE) R+9
20 IL-10 (KIRK) D+4

21 VA-02 (DRAKE) R+6
22 OH-01 (CHABOT) R+1
23 NY-13 (FOSSELLA) D+1
24 IL-11 (WELLER) R+1
25 CA-26 (DREIER) R+3
26 CA-50 (BILBRAY) R+5
27 VA-11 (DAVIS) R+1
28 PA-03 (ENGLISH) R+2
29 MN-02 (KLEIN) R+3
30 OH-02 (SCHMIDT) R+13

31 NY-03 (KING) D+2
32 KY-04 (DAVIS) R+12
33 FL-08 (KELLER) R+3
34 IA-04 (LATHAM) D+0
35 NJ-05 (GARRETT) R+4
36 NY-25 (WALSH) D+3
37 MI-08 (ROGERS) R+2
38 NJ-03 (SAXTON) D+3
39 WY-AL (CUBIN) R+19
40 DE-AL (CASTLE) D+7

41 WV-02 (CAPITO) R+5
42 OH-12 (TIBERI) R+1
43 PA-18 (MURPHY) R+2
44 OH-14 (LaTOURETTE) R+2
45 TX-32 (SESSIONS) R+11
46 FL-15 (WELDON) R+3
47 WA-05 (McMORRIS) R+7
48 NJ-02 (LoBIONDO) D+4
49 OH-03 (TURNER) R+3
50 CA-04 (DOOLITTLE) R+11

51 NE-02 (TERRY) R+9
52 NV-02 (HELLER) R+8
53 NE-01 (FORTENBERRY) R+12
54 AZ-02 (FRANKS) R+9
55 VA-10 (WOLF) R+5
56 IL-15 (JOHNSON) R+6
57 AL-03 (ROGERS) R+4
58 MI-04 (CAMP) R+3
59 NM-02 (PEARCE) R+6
60 NC-05 (FOXX) R+15

From the Associated Press today:

Link

INDIAN HILL, Ohio (AP) — An Iraq war veteran who drew national attention when he ran for Congress criticizing the president chased three men who had crashed into a fence outside his home, then guarded them with an assault rifle until police arrived, according to police reports.

The reports involving attorney Paul Hackett came to light during a grand jury investigation. His lawyer, Greg Moore, issued a statement Tuesday in which he acknowledged what happened and said Hackett was distressed ”that the secrecy of the grand jury has been violated.”

Police in the Cincinnati suburb investigated the matter and consider it closed, Chief Chuck Schlie said.

Hackett, a Marine reservist who served seven months in Iraq, attracted a wide following in 2005 when he ran as a Democrat in a special election for a U.S. House seat in southwest Ohio, criticizing President Bush and the Iraq war.

He narrowly lost to Republican Jean Schmidt.

According to a police report, officers were called to Hackett’s home on Nov. 19 after a car crashed into a fence and sped away. The officers arrived to find three men lying face down near their car and Hackett with an assault rifle slung over his shoulder.

”He said he had done this about 200 times in Iraq, but this time there was not a translation problem,” the police report said.

Hackett told police later that he was carrying a civilian model of an AR-15 and that one round was in the chamber but the safety was on. He said he never aimed the weapon at the men or put his finger on the trigger.

The driver of the car was charged with failure to maintain reasonable control, driving under suspension and carrying a concealed weapon, a pair of brass knuckles.

This morning at 10am there will be a press event calling on Roskam to support parts of the First 100 Hours agenda in Schaumburg. I know it’s late notice but I only got the email yesterday. Read on to see how you can join in and help force lil Petey’s hand or if he sticks to his guns highlight just how out of the mainstream he is.

When: Wed., Jan. 10th, at 10am

Where: Roosevelt University in Schaumburg (1400 N. Roosevelt Blvd., Room 707)

What: Press event calling on Roskam to support parts of the First 100 Hours agenda (minimum wage, reducing student loan rates, repealing oil company subsidies, and allowing Medicare to negotiate for lower drug prices)

Citizen Action will be joined by Sierra Club and Illinois Alliance for Retired Americans. This is a non-partisan, issue-based event, but obviously, our goal is to highlight that Roskam opposes these mainstream proposals. If you know any students in the area (or persons who just graduated and have student loans), Medicare drug recipients stuck in the donut hole, or anybody who doesn’t think it’s the taxpayer’s job to guarantee record profits for oil companies they’d love to have you join them. You don’t have to have a reason other than wanting to see a congressman actually represent his consituents’ instead of his contributors’ interests. I won’t be able to make it as my dad has a doctor’s appt. at the VA hospital. 

If you have any questions, contact:
_______________________
Ryan Canney
Organizing Director
312-427-2114 x6
ryan@citizenaction-il.org

(Bumped. – promoted by James L.)

Do you remember Rosalind Kurita, a Tennessee State Senator from Clarksville?  Back in 2005, she challenged Harold Ford, Jr. for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat held by the retiring Sen. Bill Frist before dropping out due to anemic fundraising.  I seem to recall that one of the arguments in favor of her candidacy in a few pockets of the netroots was that she was somehow a more “progressive” choice than Ford.  Here’s that “progressivism” in action:

John Wilder’s three decades as lieutenant governor came to an end today – as did Democrats’ 140-year leadership over the Tennessee state Senate.

A last-minute switch by a Democratic senator from Clarksville allowed Wilder to be bested by his Republican rival, state Sen. Majority Leader Ron Ramsey.

An auctioneer from Blountville, Ramsey was elected Senate speaker and lieutenant governor around 12:45 p.m. today in an 18-15 vote.

Wilder had held the post since the early 1970s – but Ramsey defeated him after state Sen. Rosalind Kurita of Clarksville defected from her fellow Democrats and voted with the Republicans for Ramsey. (emphasis added)

The Senate exploded with applause at the last-minute switch.

To clarify the situation, in Tennessee, the Speaker of the Senate also serves as the state’s Lt. Governor.  While the Republicans have enjoyed a 17-16 majority in the TN Senate since 2004, Democrat John Wilder, an 85 year-old living legend, has been able to retain his job as Speaker by relying on the votes of several Republican members.  With those votes gone as a result of a Republican crackdown, and with Sen. Kurita ready and willing to stab her party in the back, Republicans have just claimed control of the State Senate for the first time in 140 years.

With that kind of party loyalty, thank goodness that she wasn’t the one to get a crack at a Senate seat last year.

UPDATE: In the comments below, Knox Dem JJ puts to rest the idea that Kurita’s defection was merely a moot vote:

Kurita’s vote did indeed matter, it’s that simple. Even though the vote was 18-15, she voted ahead of Republican Sen. Williams who broke ranks with Senate Republicans two years ago to help elect Sen. Wilder as Speaker of the Senate/Lt. Governor. When she voted ahead of Williams this year he realized even if he voted for Wilder again, Republican Sen. Ramsey would be elected so when his vote came up he voted to appease his party even though they have vowed to primary him. Sen. Speaker Wilder had said that Williams had told him face to face that he would support him again but with Kurita’s vote going republican William’s vote became moot.

(Hat-tip to Chris Bowers and MyDD’s Breaking Blue)

(And so it begins. This is just a taste of what will be in store for many of our freshman class over the next two years. We need to be prepared to weather this storm and push back aggressively. On another note, it’s pretty interesting that the NRCC would hone their attack on the subject of immigration, considering that it’s next to impossible to find a race where that “hot button” issue gave the Republicans a decisive assist–with the exception of the CA-50 run-off, perhaps.



Update: It’s also possible this this mailer was a holdover from November that somehow got “stuck” in the mail. Stranger things have happened. I’d keep your eyes peeled on the FEC’s independent expenditure page to see if the NRCC reports spending any money in this district. – promoted by James L.)

Cross posted at Say No To Pombo

UPDATE:  This story has now been picked up by the largest newspaper in CA-11, the Contra Costa Times.

Last Thursday, Jerry McNerney took the oath of office as a member of the 110th Congress. A scant five days later, with what must surely be unprecedented speed, the NRCC has sent out its first anti-McNerney campaign mailers of the 2008 election to voters in CA-11. 

It’s worth noting that in the run-up to the 2006 elections, the NRCC spent over $1.3 million to prop up threatened incumbent Rep. Richard Pombo, all to no avail. In the days leading up to November 7, the NRCC sent out no less than 20 anti-McNerney mailers (strikingly, they couldn’t think of one single pro-Pombo message). Looks like old habits die hard.

So if anyone out there thinks that McNerney’s 2008 re-election will be easy simply because he won in 2006 by a 6% margin — er, not so much. Expect a steady drumbeat of anti-McNerney disinformation over the next two years. The only real question is, what are we going to do about it?

(x-posted from the albany project)

It’s official. As expected, Nassau county dems nominated County Legislator Craig Johnson to run against County Clerk, Maureen O’Connell in the Feb 6th special election to replace new state Homeland Security chief Michael Balboni.

As usual, Newsday is all over it.

NY Dems nominate county legislator Johnson for Senate

Craig Johnson, a popular county legislator, was nominated Monday to run for a key state Senate seat being left vacant by Michael Balboni’s departure to Democratic Gov. Eliot Spitzer’s administration as chief of homeland security.

…

Jay Jacobs, chairman of the Nassau County Democrats, said Johnson comes to the table with a solid record and base of supporters.

“He knows how to campaign, voters are used to voting for him and he has an excellent record in the Legislature,” Jacobs said.

Johnson was elected to the 11th Legislative District in a special election in 2000 after the death of the former legislator, Barbara Johnson, his mother.

He was re-elected to the post in 2001 and 2003. In 2005, he received 73 percent of the votes, Jacobs said.

This one is gonna be a dogfight and there’s less than month for these campaigns and the parties to make their case. The stakes are HUGE, especially for the GOP, and their new party chair who has deep roots in the district and will likely pull out all the stops to not only protect the seat, but his own home turf.

As for the Dems, the shakeup at the DSCC probably isn’t so well timed given the gravity of the race. Then again, not like they’ve been particularly effective as of late anyway. This race is going to be very expensive and the money advantage definitely tilts towards the GOP at this moment though the voter registration trends tilt towards the Dems. (the trend from Republican to Democrat has been rather steep and pretty quick)

It’s a very expensive and potentially vicious four week sprint to a conclusion that could have massive implications for the future of the entire Republican party in the state of New York.

Let the dogfight begin!

I already posted a list ranking the 132 most vulnerable members of the House.  Here is a list of the 60 most vulnerable House Democrats.  Rankings are based on PVI, 2004 incumbent or incumbent party performance and 2006 incumbent performance.  Those who received less than 55% of the vote in 2006 are in bold, and House fresh(wo)men are in italics.

1 WI-08 (KAGEN) R+4
2 KS-02 (BOYDA) R+7
3 IN-09 (HILL) R+7
4 FL-16 (MAHONEY)R+2
5 PA-10 (CARNEY) R+8
6 AZ-05 (MITCHELL) R+4
7 TX-22 (LAMPSON) R+15
8 NY-19 (HALL) R+1
9 IL-08 (BEAN) R+5
10 TX-23 (RODRIGUEZ) R+4

11 PA-04 (ALTMIRE) R+3
12 NY-20 (GILLIBRAND) R+3
13 NC-11 (SCHULER) R+7
14 CA-11 (McNERNEY) R+3
15 MN-01 (WALZ) R+1
16 IN-02 (DONNELLY) R+4
17 NH-01 (SHEA-PORTER) R+0
18 NY-24 (ARCURI) R+1
19 KY-03 (YARMUTH) D+2
20 AZ-08 (GIFFORDS) R+1

21 LA-03 (MELANCON) R+5
22 PA-08 (MURPHY) D+3
23 GA-12 (BARROW) D+2
24 TX-17 (EDWARDS) R+18
25 FL-22 (KLEIN) D+4
26 GA-08 (MARSHALL) R+8
27 NH-02 (HODES) D+3
28 IA-03 (BOSWELL) D+1
29 OR-05 (HOOLEY) D+1
30 UT-02 (MATHESON) R+17

31 CO-07 (PERLMUTTER) D+2
32 OH-18 (SPACE) R+6
33 IN-08 (ELLSWORTH) R+9
34 IA-02 (LOEBSACK) D+7
35 CO-03 (SALAZAR) R+6
36 CT-02 (COURTNEY) D+8
37 CT-05 (MURPHY) D+4
38 VT-AL (WELSH) D+9
39 PA-07 (SESTAK) D+4
40 IA-01 (BRALEY) D+5

41 SC-05 (SPRATT) R+6
42 SD-AL (HERSETH) R+10
43 KS-03 (MOORE) R+4
44 TX-27 (ORTIZ) R+1
45 TN-04 (DAVIS) R+3
46 IN-07 (CARSON) D+9
47 PA-17 (HOLDEN) R+7
48 AR-02 (SNYDER) R+0
49 ND-AL (POMEROY) R+13
50 VA-09 (BOUCHER) R+7

51 KY-06 (CHANDLER) R+7
52 NY-01 (BISHOP) D+3
53 TX-15 (HINOJOSA) D+3
54 IL-17 (HARE) D+5
55 TX-28 (CUELLAR) R+1
56 OR-04 (DeFAZIO) D+0
57 WI-03 (KIND) D+3
58 NC-13 (MILLER) D+2
59 NC-02 (ETHERIDGE) R+3
60 WA-03 (BAIRD) D+0

A list of the sixty most vulnerable House Republicans will be generated shortly.