Month: February 2007

Alright, another installment in our occasional trivia series. In 1994, no GOP incumbents lost in either the House or the Senate, much like the Dem performance in 2006. Needless to say, years like that are unusual.

So, all you election wizards, tell us: In the intervening years (ie, 1996-2004), how many incumbent Senators and Representatives lost their re-election bids, in both parties? This range includes two rounds of redistricting (nationwide in 2002 and Texas in 2004), but go ahead and include those names in your lists as well.

If you can tell us a little bit about why the incumbents lost, so more the better!

I just want to point out for everybody the existence of the “Victory Caucus,” a new GOP pressure group that’s intended to find primary challengers for House members who – like most of the country – oppose Bush’s escalation. The nearest equivalent of the netroots available on the right is all over this, demanding primary challenges.

An instructive comment:
The RINOS who vote for surrender with the Democrats should be removed from office. They join with the Party of Treason in sabotaging the war and in giving aid and comfort to the enemy.

To put this more practically: they’re talking about knocking moderate-ish Republican incumbents out of moderate-ish districts and replacing them with firebreathing conservatives who emphasize particularly their enthusiasm for continuing the war.

This would be of great assistance in preserving our majority. Can you imagine a Redstate-approved hawk trying to win in, say, IL10 or even MN3?

Is there any way we can encourage this? Maybe some direct mail to right-wing voters?

The ballot for the 10 March open primary for the open Louisiana State House District 94 seat, recently abandoned by Peppi Bruneau, a New Orleans Republican who held this seat since 1974, is set.  Here is how the ballot will appear for the special election:

State Representative, 94th Representative District
0 of 53 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
0  0% Philip C. Brickman, R –
0  0% “Jeb” Bruneau, R –
0  0% John M. Holahan, Jr., D –
0  0% Deborah J. Langhoff, D –
0  0% Nicholas J. “Nick” Lorusso, R –
0  0% William “Bill” Vanderwall, Sr., D –

Louisiana House District 94,

located in the northwestern corner of Orleans Parish, encompasses the Lake Vista, Lakeshore, Lake Terrace, Lake Oaks, Lakewood, Lakeview, Country Club Gardens, Parkview and City Park neighborhoods as well as parts of Mid-City, Gentilly and Faubourg St John.  Traditionally Republican, the voters of District 94 and of northwestern New Orleans have shown signs of shifting their political allegiances.  For in 2006 they ousted Republican incumbent Jay Batt in the City Council District A race and replaced him with Democratic newcomer Shelley Stephenson Midura, who ran an aggressive grassroots campaign that included everything from humorous television commercials to women clad in aprons protesting and marching on Carrollton Avenue.  Although some claim Midura’s 52-48 victory over Jay Batt in the 2006 runoff was an anomaly that was largely the result of population shifts in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, others maintain her victory was undergirded by voters’ distrust of incumbent politicians who were viewed as aloof, corrupt and unresponsive to the needs of the citizens they were elected to represent.

Midura’s 2006 victory is apposite to this discussion of the special election for LA-HD94 for many reasons:  Midura’s City Council A District,

although it contains Democratic precincts in Uptown and Mid-City not included in LA-HD94, is similar in shape and composition to LA-HD94; the open primaries for Midura’s race as well as the race for LA-HD94 contain large fields of candidates along with a vulnerable Republican incumbent, although in the case of LA-HD94 Jeb Bruneau is not the incumbent but the heir apparent of Bruneau père, who is attempting to transfer power from father to son; and Midura’s campaign consultant, Michael Beychok, has been hired by Democratic challenger Deborah Langhoff, a movement candidate who similar to Midura is running a campaign that highlights the corruption and cronyism of the Republican heir apparent while promising to provide overdue advocacy and representation for the beleaguered LA-HD94 voters who are still trying to recover and rebuild in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.  In other words, Langhoff is running on a compelling message of change, and she is using Midura’s victorious 2006 campaign as a model.

Deborah Langhoff is a political activist, small business owner and community organizer who understands the plight of the constituents she desires to serve: a resident of Lake Vista, her home was destroyed in Katrina.  She also has the political and community experience to wage a winning campaign: she founded Democrats in Jeans, a network of Louisiana Democrats who organized to provide assistance to hurricane survivors in the wake of Katrina; she is a Founding Member of the Citizens’ Road Home Action Team, a group who organized on the New Orleans Wiki who desire to ensure everyone receives their Road Home Program funds; she created LaRoots.net, a private database project that sustains and nutures grassroots organization in Louisiana that began as KerryRoots.net during the 2004 Presidential race; she and the group surrounding her who call themselves Beaucoup Blues organized with Jim Dean and Democracy for America in 2005 in order to “turn Louisiana blue;” and she has created and volunteered for multiple arts education programs in public schools in New Orleans.  In other words, Langhoff is the real deal, and her grassroots organization skills will be a huge benefit to the Democratic Party in Louisiana and in the United States as a whole.

Langhoff definitely has a chance of qualifying for the runoff and beating Jeb Bruneau, the presumed frontrunner, with the right amount of effort and funds.  LA-HD94 is comprised of 53 precincts, 42 of which are located in Midura’s City Council A District.  Midura won 10 of these 42 precincts, garnering 3,419 votes to Batt’s 5,385, or 38.8% to Batt’s 61.2%.  The precincts Midura won are located in Mid-City and Parkview, while Batt one in precincts located in Navarre, Lakewood, West End, Lakeview, Lakeshore, Lake Vista, Lake Terrace and Lake Oaks.  LA-HD94 does contain a Mid-City precinct not included in Midura’s City Council A District, and it also includes 2 in Faubourg St. John, also Democratic, and 5 in Fillmore, which is a lot more Democratic than the precincts located along Lake Pontchartrain and the Metarie Canal, where Batt beat Midura, sometimes by large margins.  LA-HD94 also contains 3 Lake Terrace and Lake Oaks precincts not located in Midura’s City Council A District.  A resident of Lake Vista, Langhoff will be able to reduce Republican margins in these precincts.  Midura’s 2006 victory also provides Langhoff with a precedent with which to lure voters to take her candidacy seriously. 

Although Langhoff will have to fight in order to win this seat, it is definitely feasible: she is the only woman on the ballot; there are no other races on the ballot on 10 March, which makes the open primary and the runoff turnout elections, especially as one other special election for the LA House in Orleans Parish in the wake of Katrina, LA-HD97, had very low turnout in the open primary and in the runoff, 2,300 and 5,400 votes respectively, when turnout for such races is normally about 9,000 to 10,000 votes; and Langhoff is exploiting, indeed exacerbating, a general distrust voters have for incumbent politicians, especially local politicians who failed to keep their constituents safe while never delivering the services they promised.

Visit Deborah Langhoff’s website, and consider contributing to her campaign.  Not only will her victory enable us to gain a LA House seat and thereby ensure that chamber is in Democratic hands for redistricting; her victory will be the first signal to the Louisiana GOP that they will have a big fight on their hands when they try to take over both state legislative chambers later this year.

 

co-authored by Carnacki and SLJ of West Virginia Blue.

West Virginia Republican Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito (WV-02) had a chance to earn our praise yesterday. If she had continued on a path she had begun, we would have been the first to have credited her for doing the right thing for West Virginians and the American people. We would have crossed party lines to sing praises because bringing peace to Iraq, bringing our troops home or freeing them for where they are needed in Afghanistan — that is bigger than partisan politics.

She did not. She deserves to be called out for her cowardly action and this is something you can help with as we’ll explain at the end of the diary.

NOTE: WV-02 is frequently rated at this site as one of the top 40-50 pick-up opportunities in 2008.

She had the chance to take a stand against an unnecessary war that has already claimed thousands of American lives, tens of thousands of Iraqi lives. It has cost us allies, the respect of the world. It has not helped the fight against terrorism. Indeed, according to studies by the Department of Defense, the CIA and the recent National Intelligence Estimate, it has created even more enemies for us.

Capito had been on the course to change

During the election campaign of 2006, she mostly ran away from her previous Rubber Stamp Republican support of President Bush. She claimed she was independent of him and that she was eager to bring the troops home. She won with 57 percent of the vote.

After she won election, she claimed to have heard us.

Capito conceded the war had a major impact on her race and others throughout the nation. She called for the new Congress to “join together in a bipartisan way with the president to bring our troops home as soon as we can.”

Then at the beginning of the year, she opposed sending more troops.

“The No. 1 issue is how to get our troops out of there as quickly as possible.

She was even more forthright with West Virginia’s Hoppy Kercheval, the dean of West Virginia talk radio:

“Capito told me candidly, “I don’t see it (GeeDubya surge plan) as the solution to the problem.”

“The four term congresswoman believes sending more troops would simply put them in “very precarious situations to try to settle a situation that really doesn’t affect our vital national interest.”

“There, she said it. She doesn’t believe the “surge” makes America safer.” Hoppy Kerchival.

But what did she do when it came time to act?

Here’s how the Huntington News described it in an editorial:

Capito sliced it about as thinly as one can in a floor speech during in the House of Representatives yesterday as she made “clear” that, while she still opposes President Bush’s new surge of troops in Iraq, she cannot vote for a House resolution that says…exactly what she believes.

Come again, Congresswoman Capito? Which is it now: yea or nay?

Capito’s tortured reasoning is that, while she agrees with the content of the resolution, she fears that the Democrats may see it as a first step towards taking away funding from existing troops in the field.

Nevermind that the resolution nowhere states such a thing. Moreover, nobody is saying that Capito has to sign on to any further resolution or action by the Democrats if she finds sound cause to reject such future actions.

She said the resolution would be “tying” the military commanders’ hands by not giving them the “resources” they need.

In other words, she for opposing the escalation of the war before she was against opposing it.

Now the problem is that while some of the media did an excellent job in reporting her reversal, the others did not. Poor media coverage of her actual votes and work on Capitol Hill is one of the reasons she’s been able to market herself as a political moderate.

She’s not. She’s a hard-core Rubber Stamp Republican who is able with the complicity or ineptness of some of the media to mask her true self.

Now here’s where we ask you to action. The Rev. Jim Lewis took action. He was escorted out of Capito’s office by police after staging a protest for 10 hours in her Kanawha City office. We’re not asking you to occupy her office. We’re just asking you to call or email some people.

Room for Improvement

Martinsburg Journal, WV – by Lauren Hough – Capito comments on troop resolution

Contact Martinsburg Journal
By Email: news@journal-news.net
By Phone: 304-263-8931, extension list
Form for Letter to the Editor

Key points:
– Their coverage does not make Capito’s two-faced stance clear. Isn’t it odd for a Representative to say one thing and do the complete opposite? Isn’t it newsworthy that her actions (her vote) conflicts with her words?
– Urge them to cover the brave actions of Rev. Jim Lewis and Patriots for Peace. Capito’s action is unpopular. The depth of displeasure is news.

Improving

Daily Mail – Charleston, WV
Original Article by Jake Stump – Capito speaks against resolution critical of Iraq troop surge
Updated Article by Jake Stump – Capito opposes Iraq resolution

Contact Jake Stump
By Email: jakestump@dailymail.com.
By Email via form.
By Phone: 304-348-4842

Key Points
– Thank them for correcting the mis-impression left by their original coverage.
– Urge them to cover the brave actions of Rev. Jim Lewis and Patriots for Peace. Capito’s action is unpopular. The depth of displeasure is news.

Nice List

HNN Huntingtonnews.net – WV
Article (by HNN Staff): Capito Opposes Troop ‘Surge,’ Also Opposes Democratic Iraq Resolution in House
Editorial: Capito Has Her Cake, Eats It, Too, and Then Some

Contact HuntingtonNews.Net
Contact information.

Key Points
– Thank them for their strong coverage of the story.
– Express your interest in hearing more news about anti-war protests in the area including Rev. Jim Lewis and Patriots for Peace demonstration at Capito’s office.

In Summary
Thank you for your help. This is how we stop the Iraq war–this is how we turn a red district blue–by fighting every day for what is right.

North Carolina Senator Elizabeth Dole is still showing vulnerability in recent polls, even if her opponent in not Mike Easley. A new poll has Dole leading 45-30 against Congressman Bob Etheridge.

A new poll out Wednesday has Republican U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole dominating a hypothetical race against Democratic U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge, but the numbers expose a few weaknesses for the incumbent senator, the poll’s author said.

Dole, of Salisbury, has been dogged by rumors about whether she will run in 2008, especially in the wake of a catastrophic outcome for Senate Republicans after her term as chairwoman of the National Republican Senatorial Campaign.

Dole says she’s running.

The poll, by Public Policy Polling, shows Dole running ahead of Etheridge, 45 percent to 30 percent, among likely voters.

But Dean Debnam, president of the company, pointed out that Dole enjoys more name recognition than Etheridge, a Lillington congressman known mostly in his district south and east of the Triangle.

“Dole is not necessarily in a very strong position,” Debnam said.

Etheridge’s name has been floated in the past as a possible senatorial candidate. His spokeswoman said Wednesday he isn’t planning a Senate run in 2008.

“Right now his focus is on working on his committees on issues important to North Carolina,” said spokeswoman Joanne Peters.

Dole political consultant Mark Stephens disputed the accuracy of the poll, which was conducted through automatic phone calls. Respondents signaled their choices by punching numbers on the phone.

“I don’t know a campaign worth its salt that would utilize this kind of polling,” Stephens said. “They don’t even know who they’re talking to on the other end of the phone. It could be a 12-year-old kid.”

Debnam said the polling group will pit other hypothetical candidates, perhaps including U.S. Rep. Brad Miller of Raleigh, against Dole in future polls.

A poll by the group last month showed Gov. Mike Easley beating Dole by 44 percent to 41 percent.

The Dole-Etheridge poll was conducted Monday by automatic phone calls of 448 likely voters. The survey’s margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

Granted, the sample size is small, but it mirrors similar problems she is having in a hypothetical match-up against former Gov. Easley, who has thus far declined to run. Some will also point to Jesse Helms who constantly polled terribly but won elections. But I would argue that Dole does not command the rabid loyalty that Helms did. She’s clearly vulnerable and we need to keep up the pressure.

Even from his sickbed, James brings us the latest from around the Internets. What, pray tell, have you got?

I’ve been nursing a nasty case of bronchitis this week, so I think that I’m only going to have energy to do a round-up style post this evening.  Let’s hit the ground running:

–NY-20: Recently-ousted ex-Rep. John Sweeney is apparently mulling a rematch against Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand.  I can only pray that the local GOP is foolish and/or desperate enough to let this thug try again. (Hat tip to the Political Wire.)
–TN-Sen: Dailykos diarist Sidof79 has an excellent rundown of possible competitors against Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander next year, from Harold Ford, Jr. to Tim McGraw.
–NC-Sen: In a hypothetical election match-up, Sen. Elizabeth Dole beats Democratic Rep. Bob Etheridge by a 45-30 margin, according to a new poll by Public Policy Polling.  That’s not especially strong.  (Hat-tips to Blue South and Senate 2008 Guru.)
–LA-Gov: According to the Cook Political Report, former Democratic Sen. John Breaux is seriously considering running for Governor this year.  Breaux’s Senate politics relied heavily on backroom, floor-crossing “dealmaking”, but I’d be content to let him have a try at this.  He’s our best shot at keeping the Louisiana Gubernatorial office in the Blue column.
–MI-07: The locals blast Republican Tim Walberg for supporting escalation in Iraq.

From the Cook Political Report (top item on front page):

Former Democratic Sen. John Breaux is seriously considering a bid for Governor of Louisiana.  John Maginnis, editor of the highly regarded Louisiana Political Fax Weekly, initially reported the news this morning, and the Cook Political Report has independently verified that it is true.  Apparently Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco has privately indicated a willingness to step aside if Breaux, or possibly another Democrat, such as Rep. Charlie Melancon, would run instead.

None of this is a done deal, but Breaux is serious, and his candidacy would change the face of the race for Democrats.

Breaux is certainly no favorite of mine – indeed, it’s probably hard for most movement progressives to feel too warmly about him. However, it’s not as though I carry a torch for Blanco, and his entrance into this race would be an immediate game-changer. He’d transform this from an uphill battle to a likely hold, and if he won a second term, he’d be around for redistricting. (LA is a state where, if we’re willing to play hardball, we can pick up at least a seat or two with friendlier lines.)

If this is true, this is big.

UPDATE: Much more here from LouisianaGirl.

P.S. The Race Tracker Wiki could use some updating.

Here is some interesting news from the Cook Political Report:

February 16, 2007

Breaking News: Former Democratic Sen. John Breaux is seriously considering a bid for Governor of Louisiana.  John Maginnis, editor of the highly regarded Louisiana Political Fax Weekly, initially reported the news this morning, and the Cook Political Report has independently verified that it is true.  Apparently Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco has privately indicated a willingness to step aside if Breaux, or possibly another Democrat, such as Rep. Charlie Melancon, would run instead.

None of this is a done deal, but Breaux is serious, and his candidacy would change the face of the race for Democrats.

John Maginnis, the Republican operative Cook Political Report cites in their breaking report, writes the following:

Breaux Eyes Governor’s Race
Former Sen. John Breaux has told sources he is “very interested” in running for governor if Kathleen Blanco doesn’t. T. he Fax Weekly spoke to three individuals who say Breaux directly told them of his renewed interest during Washington Mardi Gras.
“This is the most interested I’ve seen him than all the other b.s. we’ve been through,” said a friend of the 61-year-old ex-senator turned high-powered Washington lobbyist. He toyed with campaigning for governor in 2003 and for re-election in 2004, holding the political community and other campaigns in suspense until he announced he would not run.
News of Breaux’s interest both heartens Democrats and puts pressure on Blanco to make her decision soon. The governor is said to have a poll in the field.

If Cook Political Report cites Maginnis, I believe this is news to be taken very seriously.  For Breaux, as many here already know, won his reelection bids for his US Senate seat in 1992 and 1998 in the open primary, not a runoff, with 73% and 64% respectively.  And unlike Landrieu, Breaux’s base is not in Orelans Parish; it is in Acadiana, specifically Acadia Parish.  Moreover, Breaux has overwhelmingly carried what is now the very important, indeed crucial, population center of East Baton Rouge Parish, a feat Mary Landrieu has had much difficulty acheiving, although her 2002 runoff performance is promising. 

Blanco claims a poll is presently in the field, but I am not sure it will convince her to run now that Beaux has indicated a strong interest in the gubernatorial race.  For a Southern Media and Opinion Research poll in January 2007 reported the following:

Republican Jindal leads Blanco, a Democrat, 59 percent to 35 percent, according to a survey of 600 likely voters conducted during the weekend by Southern Media and Opinion Research.

In a three-way race with Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell, Jindal leads Blanco 58 percent to 31 percent, with Campbell pulling 6 percent.

I am not aware of any legislative feat Blanco has acheived with the state House or the state Senate in the past month, but she has managed to convince Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats to craft legislation to benefit Louisiana.  Blanco has also spent the last month vociferously criticizing Bush in the wake of Brown’s statement that the Bush Administration purposefully undermined Louisiana in order to undercut Blanco’s credibility.

But there are at least three variables we need to consider before we assume Breaux would beat Jindal in the open primary or in a very competitive runoff:  Foster Campbell, John Georges and Walter Boasso.  Foster Campbell, a populist Democrat from North Louisiana who is presently the Public Service Commissioner for one fifth of the state, has a warchest of $750,000, and he plans to run.  But Jindal will be splitting the Republican vote with at least Walter Boasso, a state Senator representing Plaquemines Parish, St. Bernard Parish and parts of St. Tammany Parish, and Orleans Parish businessman John Georges, who has committed $2 million of his own money to his campaign.  Jindal has $2.67 million, and Blanco has $3 million.  Although Breaux has not yet announced, I imagine he will match if not surpass Jindal’s warchest.  We should also keep in mind that Blanco, if she abandons her campaign, will have $3 million to distribute through various channels to Breaux. 

If Breaux chooses to run, this race will become very interesting.  As you can see, Jindal already has viable challenges from two Republicans and two Demcrats, Blanco included.  If Breaux enters, it may be possible Jindal does not even make a runoff, as he will split the Republican vote, particularly the Republican votes of populous Jefferson and St. Tammany Parishes, with a popular state Senator and a wealthy Orleans Parish businessman.  And Foster Campbell will complicate Jindal’s bid in North Louisiana, where Blanco, according to the January poll, still maintains an edge.  John Breaux will only compound the problems Jindal already faces, as Breaux will seriously reduce any support Jindal has in Acadiana, which according the January poll could have been a Jindal stronghold. 

While I am still awaiting Breaux’s entry, I am more optimistic about this race than I was a week ago.  A ticket of Jindal, Georges, Boasso, Breaux and Campbell will make it impossible for Jindal to win the Governor’s seat in 2007.  And I imagine this will make it very difficult for the Louisiana GOP to focus on state House and state Senate seats, as they will have to spend to ensure a Republican, any Republican, makes a runoff with Breaux.

And what of Foster Campell, you may ask?  It is a legitimate question.  Building name recognition in 2007, Campbell can prepare himself for a 2010 race against David Vitter, who is now, according to Maginnis, fashioning himself as another John Breaux.  Perhaps Vitter knows Louisianans are not ready to swallow his callous conservatism. 

Cross-posted at the brand new BlueIndiana.net. Check it out — Indiana’s been underrepresented in the blogosphere, but played a huge part in moving the House from red to blue. It’d be great to establish Blue Indiana as the Hoosier State’s version of some great sites like My Left Nutmeg and Blue Hampshire.

This is bizarre. In an article on HispanicBusiness.com, it’s mentioned in an article about what happens after Castro dies that Burton is going to announce his candidacy for President:

It was followed, four years later, by the even more swinging Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act, aka the HelmsBurton Act, after its authors, the late Senator Jesse Helms and Congressman Dan Burton (who is about to announce his candidacy for the Republican 2008 presidential nomination). This, among many other things, made it illegal under U.S. law for foreign countries to trade with Cuba or for a U.S. administration even to recognise a transitional government from Fidel to Raul.

Are we serious? Can that possibly be accurate? Am I reading that right? Is this something that I’ve missed?

Burton, if you’ll recall, is the Indiana 5th District Congressman who skipped a good chunk of House votes in January to play golf. He’s in a district that Democrats have no chance to win — no chance, that is, unless Burton doesn’t run for re-election.