Month: September 2007

From the Virginia Pilot:

Former Gov. Mark Warner, a Democrat, is widely expected to announce his candidacy for the U.S. Senate on Thursday, pledging to bring a spirit of bipartisanship to Washington.

Warner, in around-the-clock meetings and phone calls with political advisers in recent weeks, has been weighing whether to run for the Senate seat being vacated next year by longtime Republican incumbent John Warner, or wait until 2009 and run again for governor.

One strategist who asked not to be identified said Warner has put out word to a few that he has decided on the Senate. Many others said Warner had indicated in conversations with them in recent days that he is leaning heavily toward the Senate.

“I’d be surprised if he didn’t run for the Senate,” said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist, who said he spoke with Warner on Friday night.

One ally, who spoke with Warner on Monday, said the former governor put his chances of declaring for the Senate at “80-20.”

The news comes hot off the heels of a pair of Rasmussen polls showing Warner leading former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R) by a 54%-34% margin, and Rep. Tom Davis (R) by a 57%-30% margin.  While Davis would obviously have a lot more room to grow (given a lower statewide profile than Warner or Gilmore), Warner would begin such a race in a commanding position.

If Warner still harbors Presidential ambitions, I’m not convinced that a Senate term is in his best interests, but it would be in the best interests of the nation.

Oh yeah, and this part of the article made me giggle:

Several Republican strategists said Warner is no shoo-in for the Senate in 2008 and could face a bruising race. They said Warner had the luxury of never having held elected office when he ran for governor.

“This time, he has a record and he’ll be held to it,” said Chris LaCivita, an adviser to Davis, a possible candidate. LaCivita noted that Warner raised taxes as governor despite making repeated campaign promises that he would not.

“The free ride is over,” said Dick Leggitt, an adviser to Gilmore.

Amazing.  It must take quite the marketing guru to “re-educate” Virginians that somehow Mark Warner’s gubernatorial record was bad for Virginia.  As the article notes, Warner left office with a whopping 75% approval rating.  Oh right: one of the guys taking the potshots is the brain behind the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth, and the other guy’s boss had an embarrassing four years as Governor.  These guys are utter clowns.

Race Tracker: VA-Sen

(H/T: SSPer MrMacMan)

2008’s Senate races have taken more shape in recent weeks and months, with the entry of some challengers (Merkley, Rice) and the retirement of others (Hagel, Warner, Craig).  But we’re still waiting on plenty of big names and lesser lights to announce their intentions.  Here’s a list of the notable names that we’re waiting to hear from (and yes, some of these names are extremely unlikely to run):

Alaska: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D); former AK House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz
Arkansas: Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R); 2004 nominee Jim Holt (R); J. French Hill (R); Chuck Banks (R)
Delaware: Rep. Mike Castle (R)
Idaho: Lt. Gov. Jim Risch (R); state AG Lawrence Wasden (R); former state AG David Leroy (R); state Sen. Michael Jorgensen; state Sen. John McGee (R); former state Sen. Dane Watkins (R)
Iowa: Rep. Steve King (R); Rep. Tom Latham (R)
Louisiana: Treasurer John Kennedy (D R); Secretary of State Jay Dardenne (R); Rep. Jim McCrery (R); Woody Jenkins (R); Suzanne Haik Terrell (R)
Kansas: Former Rep. Jim Slattery (D); former Republican State House Speaker Joe Hoagland (D); Steve Boyda (D)
Kentucky: Charlie Owen (D); Andrew Horne (D); Rep. Ben Chandler (D); Bruce Lunsford (D); Larry Forgy (R)
Mississippi: Former state AG Mike Moore (D)
Nebraska: Former Gov. and Sen. Bob Kerrey (D); Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey (D); Scott Kleeb (if Kerrey and Fahey pass); former Gov. and Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns (R); former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub (R)
New Hampshire: Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey: Anne Evans Estabrook (R); Joseph Pennacchio (R)
New Mexico: Gov. Bill Richardson (D); Rep. Tom Udall (D); state AG Patricia Madrid (D); former US Attorney John Kelly (D)
North Carolina: State Rep. Grier Martin (D); state Sen. Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma: State Sen. Kenneth Corn (D)
South Dakota: Gov. Mike Rounds (R); Dusty Johnson (R)
Tennessee : Mike McWherter (D); Bob Tuke (D); Mike Doherty (D); former Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D)
Virginia: Former Gov. Mark Warner (D); former Lt. Gov Don Beyer (D);  former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R); Rep. Tom Davis (R)

The “unconfirmed word”, according to the Nashua Telegraph’s Kevin Landrigan (via Dean Barker), is that former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen is leaving her post as director of the Kennedy School of Government:

“So who has the experience, compassion and strength to beat John Sununu?” [Katrina Swett] asks [in a new mailer].  This comes as unconfirmed word that the Kennedy School of Government is now looking for a new director. If that’s true, it would mean former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen is freed up from that nonpartisan role to jump into the Senate race. She will be giving a non-political speech to a women’s group in the state later this month.

The Union Leader’s John DiStaso says that we can expect an announcement from Shaheen in a week and a half, although a spokesman has recently said that the governor has “no sense of time” as to when a final decision will be reached.  Let’s hope that it’s sooner, rather than later.

(H/T: S2G)

Race Tracker: NH-Sen

[Originally posted at Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

It seems like Republicans are doing, as Mitch McConnell might say, their “Washington best” to lower expectations for the 2008 Senate elections.  Here is a collection of interesting quotes from Republicans in the know regarding the ’08 Senate races.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell:

Republicans are unlikely to win back control of the Senate in 2008, their Senate leader, Mitch McConnell, said Friday, gloomily predicting that “holding our own is about all we could hope for.” … “It would take an extraordinarily good day to get back up to 50. So our goal is to stay roughly where we are.” [CNN, 7/20/07]

(Much more below the fold.)

NRSC Chair John Ensign:

“If you scratch the surface, things don’t look necessarily that good,” he said. “But when you get below the surface, things aren’t nearly as bad as what they could be.” [Associated Press, 9/9/07]

and

In a “wide-ranging” interview, Ensign “acknowledged that his party faces a steep, uphill climb in next year’s Senate elections when 21 Republican seats will be up for grabs, compared with 12 for the Democrats.” [Washington Times, 3/26/07]

NRSC Communications Director Rebecca Fisher:

Rebecca Fisher, communications director for the NRSC, acknowledged “the mountain that we’re up against,” but predicted success. [USINFO, 9/10/07]

Anonymous GOP Operative:

“About the only safe Republican Senate seats in ’08 are the ones that aren’t on the ballot,” a GOP operative with extensive experience in Senate races said. “I don’t see even the rosiest scenario where we don’t end up losing more seats.” [Washington Post, 9/2/07]

Unnamed Republican Senators:

“Republican Senators are now talking about losing four seats in 2008.” [Evans-Novak Political Report, 8/29/07]

It is shaping up like Republican leadership expects a four-seat net loss to be the best-case scenario.  I expect we’ll see more commentary from Republicans along these lines as the races further develop.  If you’ve seen any similar quotes already, share them in the comments.

As we wait for former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner (D) to reveal his plans for the open Senate seat left behind by retiring Republican John Warner, I thought it might be useful to take a look at the track record of Governors who ran for the Senate during the last 10 Congressional elections.  By my count, there have been 24 Governors (sitting, retiring, or former) who ran for Senate seats between 1986 and 2006.  15 of them were victorious.  Here’s the full list (italics denote a challenge to an incumbent; all other races were open seats):

2004

Alaska: Tony Knowles (D), lost by 3%

2002

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaeen (D), lost by 4%

Oklahoma: David Walters (D), lost by 21%

Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R), won by 10%

2000

Delaware: Tom Carper (D), won by 12%

Missouri: Mel Carnahan (D), won by 2%

Nebraska: Ben Nelson (D), won by 2%

Virginia: George Allen (R), won by 4%

1998

Indiana: Evan Bayh (D), won by 29%

Ohio: George Voinovich (R), won by 12%

1996

Nebraska: Ben Nelson (D), lost by 14%

Maine: Joe Brennan (D), lost by 6%

Massachusetts: William Weld (R), lost by 7%

1994

Missouri: John Ashcroft (R), won by 24%

Wyoming: Mike Sullivan (D), lost by 30%

1992

New Hampshire: Judd Gregg (R), won by 3%

1990
(none)

1988

Nebraska: Bob Kerrey (D), won by 15%

Nevada: Richard Bryan (D), won by 4%

Virginia: Chuck Robb (D), won by 42%

1986

Florida: Bob Graham (D), won by 10%

Idaho: John Evans (D), lost by 3%

Missouri: Kit Bond (R), won by 5%

North Carolina: Terry Sanford (D), won by 4%

Vermont: Richard Snelling (R), lost by 29%

There was actually a 25th Governor that I did not include: former Massachusetts Governor Endicott Peabody (D), who served for one two-year term in the mid-1960s.  Two decades later, he moved to New Hampshire and ran for Senate against Republican incumbent Warren Rudman, losing by a wide 32% margin.  But I’m only going to count Governors who ran for the Senate seat of the same state.

Overall, Governors have had a 63% success rate in Senate races over the past 10 cycles, and a similar rate in open seat races.  Interestingly, over two-thirds of these Governors with Senatorial ambitions have been Democrats.

Did I miss anyone?

I've mentioned this before, but we have a good opportunity to create a filibuster-proof majority by the end of the 2010 senate elections. In order to take advantage of this we need to look at making sure that we exploit every last possibly competitive seat this cycle and the next one.

 

 First of all, this is my estimation of what the competitiveness of the 2010 senate cycle is going to look like:

(Held by Democrats)

(Likely competitive)

 

• Salazaar (Colorado)

(Unlikely competitive [barring retirement or strong challenger])

 

• Lincoln (Arkansas)
• Boxer (California)
• Inouye (Hawaii)

(Held by Republicans)

 

(Likely competitive)

 

• Bunning (Kentucky)
• Specter (Pennsylvania)
• Burr (North Carolina)/
• McCain (Arizona)

 (Unlikely competitive [barring retirement or strong challenger])

 

• Coburn (Oklahoma)
• Bond (Missouri)
• Voinovich (Ohio)
• Kansas open seat (Brownback)
• DeMint (South Carolina)

 

Now, this is a preliminary look at the 2010 map, and I'm certain there is going to be some disagreement as to the specifics, but 2010 is probably going be another year with a field that the Democrats can take advantage of (since the Republicans have already take most of the southern seats up in 2004, they have no real pool for picking up seats in 2010). Assuming we can win 5 seats in 2008, we'd have to pick up at least 4 more in 2010 in order to get that filibuster-proof majority we want (let''s face it, even in the best-case scenario, we're not getting a filibuster-proof majority in 2008).

That's the good news, the bad news is in 2012, where the map is stacked very heavily against us. There are going to be 24 Democrats up for re-election in 2012 compared to only 9 Republicans (ok, fine 22 Democrats 2 independents, one of which could conceivably turn in that time period). Here's the estimation for 2012:

 

(Held by Democrats)

 

(Likely competitive)

 

• Tester (Montana)
• McCaskill (Missouri)
• Webb (Virginia)
• Byrd (West Virginia) *assumes retirement*

(Unlikely competitive [barring retirement or strong challenger])

 

• Casey (Pennsylvania)
• Brown (Ohio)
• Klobuchar (Minnesota)
• Akaka (Hawaii)
• Cardin (Maryland)
• Kennedy (Massachusetts) *assumes retirement*
• Bingaman (New Mexico)

(Held by Republicans)

(Likely competitive)

 

• N/A (subject to change due to open seats)

(Unlikely competitive [barring retirement or strong challenger])

 

• Corker (Tennessee)
• Kyl (Arizona)

This is the consequences of winning this many seats in a year that, quite frankly, by the numbers should have favored Republicans in the Senate. 2012 will be a miserable year for us in the Senate, there is no way around that fact, but if we take appropriate measures now, we can have build a large enough buffer that we can not only retain the senate, but we can keep a working majority of at least 55 seats after the Senate elections.

From the Omaha World Herald:

Chuck Hagel will announce Monday that he is retiring from the U.S. Senate and will not run for president next year, people close to the Nebraska Republican said Friday.

Hagel plans to announce that “he will not run for re-election and that he does not intend to be a candidate for any office in 2008,” said one person, who asked not to be named. […]

According to one person interviewed, Hagel told Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky on Friday morning that he had decided to retire. Hagel’s staff learned of his decision that afternoon.

Let the circus begin.  In the Republican corner, we have state Attorney General Jon Bruning, former Gov. Mike Johanns, former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub, and businessman Tony Raimondo.  For the Democrats, we could have one of the following: former Sen. Bob Kerrey, Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey, and 2006 congressional candidate Scott Kleeb.

Race Tracker Wiki: NE-Sen

(Bumped – promoted by DavidNYC)

Yet another busy week…

In a front-page exposé, the Chicago Tribune today delved into the questionable Latin American investments of Rep. Jerry Weller (R-IL): 

In 2002 Weller made his first official congressional trip to Nicaragua. Before the year was over, he had bought his first lot and eventually began looking for land he could subdivide into parcels that would attract buyers looking for prime ocean-view property at a relatively low price. It is an unusual investment for a member of Congress, and Weller's foreign land holdings seem far more extensive than any other House member's.

His investment got a boost from the narrowly passed Central America Free Trade Agreement, which Weller pitched in 2005 as a tool to enable businesses in his hard-pressed district to sell tractors and food to Latin America. CAFTA also includes additional legal protection for American investors, including those who have purchased lots from Weller.

What he didn't say was that, while he publicly pushed CAFTA, Weller privately was pursuing his land development, some 2,000 miles away. The House approved the trade pact in July 2005 by only two votes, 217-215.

Besides not mentioning his Nicaraguan investments during the CAFTA debate on the House floor, Weller did not give anywhere close to a complete accounting of them in his required 2005 financial disclosure statement. House ethics rules require representatives to disclose all property they own except for their personal residences.

Although Weller defeated his opponent last year by a healthy 10 points, the district has a PVI of only R+1.1. And while Kerry lost the district by 7 points, Gore came within 2. Weller's ethical troubles should definitely put this seat in play. 

UPDATE (James): And where is Weller to defend himself from the bullies at the Tribune?  The answer: in hiding.

When asked about the discrepancies, Weller’s office first insisted that questions be given to the congressman in writing. After a week passed with no response to the written questions, The Tribune requested to talk to Weller in person. On Thursday afternoon, Weller’s spokesman said he would not answer questions and had no comment.

The congressman missed all recorded House votes in Washington this week. His spokesman said he was out of the city, caring for his 1-year-old daughter.

Currently, the only prospective candidate against Weller is Jerry Weber, the president of Kankakee Community College.  However, I wouldn’t be surprised if other local Democrats might be taking a closer look at this race given these recent developments.

(h/t to the Stakeholder and Prarie State Blue)