Month: September 2007

(From the diaries. Maybe he’s going to anounce once more that he’s not going to announce. – promoted by James L.)

Don Walton confirms it:

Sen. Chuck Hagel will announce Monday he’ll not seek re-election next year.

Hagel also will tell an Omaha news conference he does not intend to be a candidate for any office in 2008, clamping a lid on speculation he might be pondering a late-inning presidential bid.

In a prelude to Monday’s announcement, he conferred Friday with Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

Later, Hagel gathered his Washington staff together to inform them of his decision, according to sources close to the senator.

Hagel’s departure at the end of 2008 will bring an end to a meteoric 12-year Senate ride that propelled him to national prominence as the most outspoken Republican opponent of President Bush’s Iraq war policies.

[First, a cheap plug for my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

Does it seem like there’s a new Republican scandal in the news every single week?  Well, that may be because there is.

That seems like an awful lot of corruption, scandal, hypocrisy, impropriety, and jail-worthy crime, huh?  A lot of corruption.  One might say an entire Culture of Corruption.

Michigan Republicans are going ga-ga for native son Mitt Romney, according to the latest ARG poll.

Among 600 Republicans, former Gov. Mitt Romney (at 39%) leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (13%) and former Sen. Fred Thompson (12%) in a statewide primary; Sen. John McCain trails at 9%, former Speaker Newt Gingrich at 7%. All other candidates receive less than five percent each.

(h/t – Pollster)

Analysis below the flip.

If the Republicans nominate Romney, we will win the White House in 2008 easily – every head-to-head matchup shows Romney getting crushed. Do you think a Romney win is far-fetched? Looks at the GOP primary schedule so far (subject to change, obviously):

Wyoming, 1/5: No polling yet, but this is Mormon country. Romney will win here.
Iowa, 1/14: Romney leading by 10% in the latest poll.
Michigan, 1/15: Romney leading by 26%, and was born here.
Nevada, 1/19: Mormon territory. Romney leading by 10%.
South Carolina, 1/19: Trends are pointing towards a win for Thompson, but the most recent poll (ARG) has Giuliani up by 5. I predict Thompson will take it though.
New Hampshire, 1/22: Romney up by 4%

Of course, this will be followed by Florida, which will likely be a big win for Giuliani, and then Maine – the last time Maine was polled was in May, when McCain was still leading in New Hampshire. I think a strong performance in New Hampshire could lead to a Romney win in Maine. That would have Romney racking up double-digit victories in the first 3 contests, winning 5 of the first 6 states, and 6 of the first 8 states.

That’s a pretty strong position to head in to Super Tuesday, isn’t it? Now, granted, Giuliani is likely score major victories on Super Tuesday – California, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, for example, and probably Illinois and Colorado. It could also be a good day for Thompson, with wins in Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, and possibly Missouri and Arkansas (if Huckabee drops). Romney will pick up Utah, and if McCain has dropped out, he could net Arizona as well. With the momentum he’s generated, could it make him competitive in Super Tuesday states that have not been polled (or not polled in the past 3 months) such as Minnesota, Delaware, West Virginia, Alaska, Oklahoma, and North Dakota?

Giuliani will certainly perform well in most of the biggest states in the union: CA, NY, FL, IL, PA, and NJ, with very strong numbers in the mid-atlantic region. Thompson’s powerbase will be in the mighty Southeast. If Thompson draws enough votes to win Virginia, Giuliani might not win enough delegates for a majority. In order to compete with Giuliani, Romney will need strong performances in the remaining 3 areas of the country: New England, the Midwest, and the West.

In New England, he’s leading in New Hampshire, and his connections as former Governor of Massachusetts combined with the collapse of the McCain campaign could help boost Romney over Giuliani. In the West, he has a strong Mormon base in UT, NV, ID, and WY (not to mention being CEO of the organizing committee for the Salt Lake City Olympics), and the latest polling puts him within 1% in Oregon and second place behind McCain in Arizona (New Mexico, Washington, and Colorado look like Giuliani zones for now). That leaves the rather underpolled Midwest – which is where Romney was born and leads in MI and IA. Could IN, MN, and the Great Plains follow suit? If Romney can exploit his midwestern roots (possibly with a little ethanol support added in), a Romney nomination might actually happen. And for us, that’s a Good Thing.

Although Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID) is waflling on whether or not he actually plans to resign, there's already been plenty of speculation about who would take his place. Now we learn from The Hill that one possible contender, disgusted with the GOP's handling of the scandal, is taking his name out of consideration: 

Rep. Mike Simpson (R) condemned Senate GOP leaders on Thursday for their treatment of fellow Idahoan Sen. Larry Craig (R), accusing them of hypocrisy.

“I hope I never stub my toe and they throw me under the bus,” Simpson said of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and other Republican leaders. “It kind of makes you wonder what party you want to be a member of.”

Simpson underscored that he is not considering switching parties. But he also emphasized that he would not want to serve in the Senate, even if chosen by Idaho Gov. C.L. “Butch” Otter (R) to replace Craig.

 

According to the Buckeye State Blog, Presidential candidate and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich is set to face a major new primary opponent for his Cleveland-based House seat:

Dean DePiero, Mayor of Parma – Ohio’s seventh largest city with 80,000 residents – is tossing his hat into the Primary carnival to take out Democratic Congressman and presidential wannabe Dennis Kucinich. While BSB followed up on rumors of Dean’s interest back in May, nothing ever came of it. Until now.

Over the weekend I spoke with two reliable sources. One source confirmed that he had spoken with Dean directly, and Dean claimed to be committed to the race. Another source confirmed that throughout the summer (notably August) DePiero had been busy cultivating donors. Also, I’ve heard multiple whispers that a poll may’ve been commissioned already, but I don’t have further info there.

I have no details on kick off, entrance, official word from Dean or any of that. Calls placed to DePiero’s campaign office on Wednesday have gone unreturned. However, I repeat, one of my sources spoke with DePiero directly, and Dean claimed he was in the race.

DePiero, a former state representative and Ohio House Minority Leader, would offer Kucinich his stiffest challenge yet, forcing the candidate to spend less time on the Presidential trail and more time in his own district.  This could have huge implications on the local and national level.

Check out the Buckeye State Blog for more analysis and details.

I am proud to report that the Texas Democratic Party’s ePrimary Poll has been a huge success. Because of your help spreading the word to our fellow Democrats, in just five short days, over 7,200 Texas Democrats have cast their vote for President!

That’s over five times the number of Texas Republicans who cast their vote in last weekend’s exclusive Straw Poll. And we’re not done yet! With one more day left to vote, all Texas Democrats still have a chance to make their voices heard in the next presidential election.

The enormous participation in the TDP ePrimary Poll is evidence of a Democratic Party on the rise in the Lone Star State. While Texas Republicans had only third-string candidates and embarrassingly low turnout at their VIP-only Straw Poll last weekend, Democrats from every corner of the state are energized by our Party’s strong field of presidential candidates and showing their excitement for 2008 in the ePrimary Poll.

Democrats believe our state and nation are better served when more people participate, and the ePrimary Poll is a way for all Texas Democrats to get involved in the primary process and weigh in as our Party selects a presidential nominee. Tell the country which Democrats you want to see take over the White House!

If you haven’t voted in the ePrimary Poll, there’s still time. Texas Democrats have until TOMORROW at 11:59pm to cast their vote for any one of our Democratic presidential candidates.

Cast your vote for President today!

In 2006, voters sent a message that they are tired of Republican corruption and fed up with the Bush Administration’s failed policies. But unlike Republicans, our Democratic presidential candidates are offering new ideas and a new vision for America. Our candidates are the kind of leaders who can rally Democrats across the country and bring change to the White House.

While Democrats strive to be a Party of hope, Republicans have shown they are a party of hate.  At their flop of a Straw Poll, a select group of Republican extremists chose a third-string candidate whose platform is based on hateful rhetoric. Texas Republicans have once again demonstrated their hostility towards mainstream voters and promoted candidates who seek to divide our state and nation.

Together, we can put a stop to Republican policies that serve their narrow special interests. Vote Now!

And in case you’re still deciding which of our potential nominees to support, I encourage you to take a few minutes and check out the TDP website to learn more about each candidate and read their personal message to Texas Democrats, as well as testimonials from their supporters in the Lone Star State.

If you’ve already cast your ballot and want to see how your favorite Democratic presidential candidate is doing so far, check the TDP website for the latest ePrimary Poll results. Daily updates are posted NOW!

And don’t forget to tune in Monday, September 10th when we announce the ePrimary Poll winner.

The ePrimary Poll is a chance for ALL Texas Democrats to speak out, show the strength of our party and have a real voice in the presidential nomination process. You have until TOMORROW to cast your ballot; click here to vote if you haven’t already, and if you’ve already voted, click here to invite your friends.

Your friend and fellow Democrat,

Boyd L. Richie
Texas Democratic Party Chair

[First, a cheap plug for my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

Pat Roberts and his unintimidating approval ratings may see a tough challenge yet. Six-term former Congressman Jim Slattery is publicly considering a 2008 Senate bid. Slattery retired from Congress in 1994 to run for Governor that year. Of course, we all know 1994 was not a good year for Democrats. His reputation as a stern budget-cutter may serve him well in Kansas. I’ve thought for some time that Kansas could be the sleeper competitive Senate race of the cycle, for reasons ranging from Roberts’ flaws to the breakdown of the Kansas Republican Party. We’ll see if Slattery can bring that prediction to fruition. Think Progress offers a fine summary of Pat Roberts’ failures and scandals as Chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence for those interested in learning more about Roberts’ sad record.

Congressional politics is defying all electoral norms these days. Usually, parties fear retirements more than anything and do as much as they can to get their representatives and senators to run again. Last week, however, Republicans breathed a small sigh of relief when Rep. Renzi announced he would not seek re-election in AZ-1. Stuck in ethical investigations, Renzi was playing right in the hands of the Democratic argument that Republicans are ethically challenged, and he could have doomed GOP chances in his district. Republicans learned the lesson of 2006, when they lost many of their House seats in heavy Republican territory because the incumbent was embroiled in scandals. (The worst were girlfriend-beating and mistress-strangling allegations made against Sweeney in NY-20 and Sherwood in PA-10). An open seat, Republicans reason, might actually be easier to defend.

The same thing is happening now: the resilience of Senator Craig, Senator Stevens of Alaska and Rep. Doolittle (CA-4) in the face of scandal are making their seats pick-up opportunies for Democrats. If any of these Republicans were to retire, Democratic chances would diminish.

Read full analysis – as well as an analysis of the South Dakota Senate race, where Republicans are also looking for a resignation to have any hope of having the seat – here, at Campaign Diaries.

• Idaho

Senator Craig is the only one I believe should not retire, given the shady nature of the police report and Republican hypocrisy. But it is undeniable that his running for re-election is what gives Democrats the best shot. Yesterday, Mitch McConnell talked to Craig and confirmed reports that Craig was going to fight to invalidate his own guilty plea — and would stay in the Senate if he succeeded. McConnell implied he thought Craig should stay away from the Senate, and furious Republicans said the same, and moved to already replace Craig on the Senate committees he vacated last week.

But all might not be lost for Democrats even if Craig does resign. Idaho Governor Otter was reported yesterday to be considering appointing a place-holder, meaning someone who will not run for a full-term in 2008. Otter reportedly said that too many Republicans want the job, so that it would be unfair of him to act as a one-man Republican primary. In such a case, Otter would allow Lt. Gov Rish, Rep. Simpson and otehr Idaho Republican figures to fight it out in the primary, and then compete for an open seat. Republicans would probably still be favored, but La Rocco would at least have an opening.

• Alaska

Alaska Democrats have not been able to capitalize on opportunities the past few cycles, with former Governor Knowles losing a very tight Senate race in 2004 and a not-so-tight race for Governor in 2006. The Republican bench in Alaska is deep, and the Palin v. Knowles race 2006 indicated that the GOP has a huge edge in case of open seats. So, Dems have no chance against veteran Senator Stevens in 2008? Not so fast. We all remember how the FBI raided Stevens’s house last month. Yesterday came news from The Hill that the allegations of unethical behavior are mounting against Stevens:

Sen. Ted Stevens has quietly steered millions of federal dollars to a sportfishing industry group founded by Bob Penney, a longtime friend who helped the Alaska Republican profit from a lucrative land deal, according to public records and officials from the state. Critics say those earmarked federal dollars could be the first example of how Stevens rewarded Penney for a land deal in Utah that reportedly earned the senator more than $125,000. Penney’s group, for its part, rewarded Stevens with several expensive gifts at the time it was receiving the earmarked dollars.

With Anchorage Mayor Begich possibly getting in the race, Democrats would have an easier time making a case against Sen. Stevens than winning an open seat.

• CA-4

Rep. Doolittle represents a very Republican district of California that should be no trouble for Republicans. But he is being investigated for corruption and for his ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Plagued by the scandal, Doolittle barely survived in the 2006 election, edging Democrat Brown by a few points. Brown is back for a rematch, and knows that the Republican edge of the district would be to much to overcome if it wasn’t for Doolittle’s troubles. Yesterday, things got a bit more difficult for Doolittle, as two of his aides were subpoenaed to testify in front of a grand jury.

And then came out this poll from a Republican polling firm (Wilson Research Strategies) showing that Doolittle would lose against Charlie Brown 51% to 31%. Doolittle, who is facing a Republican primary against several candidates, would edge out his competitors with only 34% of the vote. You better believe Republicans are praying for Doolittle to resign or lose the primary. Or they might as well give up any hope of keeping CA-4 come November 2008.

Read full analysis – as well as an analysis of the South Dakota Senate race, where Republicans are also looking for a resignation to have any hope of having the seat – here, at Campaign Diaries.

Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner has often spoken of the two options he must choose from: a Senate bid in 2008, or a return to the Governor’s mansion in 2009.  There is also the talk of a third “choice”: accepting a hypothetical VP nomination on the Democratic Presidential ticket next year.

Today in Roll Call (subscription only), John McArdle takes a closer look at Warner’s deliberations.  The big news is: Warner will reveal his decision sooner rather than later.

Monica Dixon, a senior adviser to the former governor, said Wednesday that her boss intends to make his political plans known sometime “within the next week or so.”

Warner would face a tough choice.  Known to have Presidential ambitions (he terminated a potential 2008 candidacy last year), Warner is said to enjoy the executive lifestyle of the Governor’s office, and another successful gubernatorial term could be more helpful in a Presidential campaign than having to deal with the baggage of a Senate term.  But an open Senate seat in Virginia would be his to lose, and could add another dimension to his resume:

But people who know Mark Warner well say a Senate bid makes sense for him at this point in his political career.

Steve Jarding, Warner’s campaign manager during his 2001 gubernatorial run, said he has advised his old boss to make the jump to the Senate.

“He’s been a chief executive now,” Jarding said. “He knows that playing field and he performed well in Virginia. … He accomplished a lot. And I think that part of who Mark is is complete.””

When Mark Warner lost to John Warner in 1996, “there was a part of him who thought that [the Senate] isn’t the best place [for him],” Jarding added. “But that was then, and I think he has since then come a long way.”

[…]

Rhett Walker, a political consultant in Virginia who has been involved in numerous statewide political campaigns, said a Senate seat would not only improve Warner’s name recognition outside of Virginia, but also provide him with experiences that he couldn’t get serving in state office.

“Although the common wisdom has been that it’s better to run for national office as a governor, I personally think [Mark Warner] is looking at the trend that people are going to be demanding more experience on international and national defense,” Walker said. “Leading a trade mission in Virginia is one thing, but that is no substitute for getting true experience with international affairs and national defense, which you would be getting in the U.S. Senate.”

Jarding also adds that biding his time for a VP slot would be too frustrating for Warner:

“I think he’d be on anybody’s short list and would be a tremendous choice” for vice president, Jarding said. “But my own sense is that … Mark looks and says, ‘I’m not going to wait for someone else to make a decision. I need to make a decision for what I believe is in the best interest of those who I want to serve … and if that means that takes me off the [vice presidential] list, then so be it.’

“I’ve been in the business a long time,” added Jarding, a veteran political operative who currently works for Sen. Tim Johnson (D-S.D.). “I believe that any time you put yourself in a situation where you make a decision based on what you predict somebody else might make you probably made a bad decision.”

Unlike Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, it looks like Mark Warner won’t be teasing us for too much longer.

Fred Thompson’s officially in the GOP primary race for President, now, and so far, he’s the clear leader in the heavily Republican South.

Alabama: Thompson 31%, Giuliani 26%, McCain 16%, Gingrich 8%, Romney 3%, Undecided 13% (ARG 7/30-8/2 MOE +/-4%)
Georgia: Thompson 27%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 14%, Gingrich 13%, McCain 7%, Huckabee 3%, Brownback 2%, Paul 2%, Undecided 12% (ARG 8/2-8/6 MOE +/-4%)
Kentucky: Not polled. Borders Tennessee.
Louisiana: Not polled.
Mississippi: Not polled.
North Carolina: Thompson 30%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 12%, McCain 7%, Other 7%, Undecided 23% (PPP (D) 8/1-8/2 MOE +/-4%)
South Carolina: Rudy Giuliani 26%, Fred Thompson 21%, John McCain 12%, Mike Huckabee 9%, Mitt Romney 9%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Sam Brownback 2%, Ron Paul 2%, Undecided 12% (ARG 8/26-8/28 MOE +/-4%) – Note: 3 other polls in August (PPP, Rasmussen, Clemson U) have Thompson leading by 1-4%
Tennessee: Fred Thompson 45%, Rudy Giuliani 15%, Newt Gingrich 11%, John McCain 10% (InsiderAdvantage 3/31-4/1)
Texas: Fred Thompson 25%, Rudy Giuliani 21%, Mitt Romney 15%, Mike Huckabee 13%, John McCain 8%, Ron Paul 5%, Other 8%, Undecided 5% (IVR 8/29 MOE 4.1%) – Note: Past Primary Voters polled
Virginia: Only poll was in February, and Thompson wasn’t even an option.
Arkansas: Only poll was in March, with Huckabee having a massive lead.

Florida, of course, is very different from the rest of the South – latest numbers there (Rasmussen) are Rudy Giuliani 30%, Fred Thompson 17%, Mitt Romney 15%, John McCain 7%, Mike Huckabee 5%.

So far, it looks like Thompson has a well-defined Dixie powerbase, comparable to Romney’s popularity in the Mormon Mountain States (UT, ID, NV, and the unpolled WY) but much larger (Romney also holds IA, NH, and MI so far). Giuliani, however, still holds a massive lead in the Big Blue states (NY, CA, IL, NJ, PA) and swing states like FL, OH, MO, NM, CO, OR, WI, and WA.