MO-Gov: Blunt Gets Sued – What is he trying to hide?

Missouri’s most endangered Republican, Governor Matt Blunt just got served!

A lawsuit that is, by Scott Eckersley, his former deputy legal counsel, who is suing Blunt and four current and former aides.

From the Kansas CIty Star:

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. | Gov. Matt Blunt ducked questions Thursday about a lawsuit alleging his office intentionally deleted e-mails in violation of open-records laws but defended the firing of the former staff attorney who sued him. A whistleblower and defamation lawsuit filed Wednesday by former Blunt attorney Scott Eckersley claims that top Blunt aides directed staff in his office and other agencies to destroy e-mails to avoid providing information sought under public records requests.

The real question is, “What are they trying to hide?” Looks like the deletions are just the tip of the iceberg!

Here’s Blunt’s approval numbers: 46% approve, 48% disapprove. The crosstabs show 36% of the sample were Democrats, 29% Republicans, and 28% Independents. If that’s how party affiliation is lining up in Missouri, we’re in very good shape.

Democratic AG Jay Nixon is running strong – last I heard he was up 51% to 42%. I’m betting we can paint this one as “Democrat Favored”.

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

The first primaries are just a month away! I’m talking, of course, about the Illinois congressional primaries, which feature a marquee matchup between netroots-backed Mark Pera and out-of-touch incumbent Dan Lipinski.

What races are you looking at?


Notable User Diaries

Ton of great diaries this week.

  • Glacial Erratic updates us on the Republican field in PA-05, where Rep. John Peterson (R) is the latest GOPer to announce his retirement.

  • Skywrnchsr509 surveys competitive House races in the states with early filing deadlines: Ohio, Texas, Illinois, and Maryland.

  • Plf515‘s series on House races continues, with looks at MS, KY & WV, MD , and PA.

  • Fbihop tells us about a move to liberalize ballot access requirements in New Mexico, which could make an already wide-open campaign season even more boisterous.

  • Some good news on the state level in Mississippi: Mississippiboy passes along word that Democrat Billy McCoy was narrowly re-elected speaker of the MS House over Barbour ally (and DINO) Jeff Smith.

The races to watch……High on Ohio

Democratic chances in this state have never been better and a large contingent of credible well funded candidates have emerged to take on the Republicans.  

With 5 chances for a takeover and only 1 seat in defense, Ohio looks like an huge opportunity to make the NRCC spend some of that precious money they don’t have.  There is one race that will have a hard hitting primary it appears which could well work against us in the long run, lets hope it stays clean.  

In the 1st CD, State Representative Steve Driehaus represents a strong chance to knock Steve Chabot from his seat.  The Democrats have contested this seat and come close in svseral of the past elections but no candidate they have sent has looked as strong as Driehaus.  

The Dems have a competetive primary in the 2nd CD with the 06 nominee Vic Wulsin going toe to toe with Steve Black, a local attorney with deep local roots.  This district is the home of the nutjob Jean Schmidt, and this lady is such a nutjob, she’d still be a whacko even without her nutty positions on the issues.  Shes the fish that got away from the nice men in white jackets.  Either candidate could put up quite a fight though I give the early advatage to Wulsin as she has higher name recognition from her previous campaign.  

In the 14th CD, Judge Willaim O’Neil is taking the fight to Steve LaTourette.  While this district isn’t overly competetive, O’Neil is by far the strongest candidate to attemot to take this seat and we should give him all the help we can.  It is incredibly important to help any and all strong challengers even in questionable districts like this one because you never know when a Republican might stumble, like George Allen.  

In the 15th CD, a candidate who needs no introduction is Mary Jo Kilroy.  After coming within a few thousand votes last time, she once again vying for this now open seat.  Kilroy is the odds on favorite to win this race and we need to make sure she has the support to take advantage of that.  

In the 16th CD, State Senator John Boccieri is vying for the open seat.  Boccieri is the strongest candidate the Democrats can field and if he doesn’t win this seat this year, it is unlikely that we will be able to take it anytime soon.  The pressure is on for this seat and we must work hard to make sure we win it.  

The 18th CD could be a competetive Democratic hold district with Zach Space winning the seat after Bob Ney lost it with his corruption.  Thus far, Space lacks any significant opposition and has raised plenty of money, but this race could get competetive if any Republican candidate gains real traction.    

Congressional races by state: PA

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos

In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, IL, MD, MS, WV, KY; today, PA, where they close on 2/12

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics.  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

Pennsylvania has 19 congressional districts

11 are held by Democrats, 8 by Republicans

The 11 held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?     rating

1         D+36    .06       Brady            No            Safe

2         D+39    .04       Fattah           No            Safe

4         R+3     .65       Altmire          Yes           Vulnerable

7         D+4     .56       Sestak           No            probably OK

8         D+3     .70       Murphy           No            depends on  

                                                          Repub  

10        R+8     .78       Carney           Yes           Vulnerable

11        D+5     .59       Kanjorski        No            Mostly safe

12        D+5     .63       Murtha           Yes           Safe if Murtha        

                                                            runs

13        D+8     .46       Schwartz         No            Safe

14        D+22    .18       Doyle            No            Safe

17        R+7     .64       Holden           Yes           Mostly safe

The 8 Republicans:

PA-03 R+2  .70

The third is a C shaped area in NW PA, with the flat part of the C against the OH border and the top of the C on the NY border.

English, first elected in 1994, has had relatively close races recently; in 2006 he won 54-42 against Steven Porter, despite outspending Porter 6-1.  

Now Porter is running as an independent, and there’s a Democratic primary with 4 candidates, and a Republican challenger.  From a quick look at their websites, I can’t tell who to support: Kyle Foust ; Mike Waltner ; Mike Waltner ; Tom Myers or Kathleen Dahlkemper.  But English is vulnerable.

PA-05 R+10 .75

The 5th is the northern middle of PA, and mostly rural.  

Peterson, first elected in 1996, has mostly won easily, although in 2006 Donald Hilliard got 40% with no money.  Now Petersen is retiring!

Hilliard is running again. If he can get 40% with no money, could this be a pickup opportunity? Hilliard did a little better than Kerry did in 2004…There doesn’t seem to be a Republican running yet (at least per Race Tracker).  Looks interesting

see this diary for much more information.

epublicans (and one Democrat) keep declining: See neither Corman, Conklin running and more GOPers decline to run ]

PA-06 D +2 .67

The 6th is a weirdly shaped district in SE PA, outside of Philadelphia

Gerlach is one of the rare congressmen who didn’t get a rating over 80 from any of the groups in the Almanac of American Politics.  He was first elected in 2002, and has never gotten over 51%, the last two times against Lois Murphy, who is not running again.

There are several potential challengers (see the Wiki) but no one has officially announced yet.  This is a very vulnerable seat.

PA-09 R+15 .80

The 9th is the middle southern part of PA, along the MD border

Shuster, first elected in 2001, has not been seriously challenged since his first election.  In 2006, though, Tony Barr got 40% with only $60,000 (he was outspent 20-1); Shuster, despite his funding, ran well behind Bush’s figures of 2004.

Barr is running again.  It’ll be tough, but who knows what he could do with some money behind him?

PA-15 D+2 .58

The 15th is in the southeastern portion of PA, partly bordering NJ, including towns like Easton and Allentown and Bethlehem.

Dent, first elected in 2004, got only 54% in 2006, despite outspendiing Dertinger by about 15-1.

One opponent is Sam Bennett .  I really like her – I wrote two diaries on her: Israel Salanter, Sam Bennett and the essence of progressivism and Sam Bennett for Congress but she may have local problems .  The other opponent is an anti-abortion activist….I’m not linking to his site!

PA-16 R +11 .66

The 16th is the SE corner of PA, bordering DE and MD, and including Amish areas.

Pitts, first elected in 1996, may retire.  He has won easily without spending much.

Bruce Slater is challenging for the seat.  Frankly, if Pitts doesn’t retire, I think this will be tough.

PA-18 R +2 .62

The 18th is in the SW corner of PA, bordering WV, but it zigs and zags this way and that.

Murphy, first elected in 2002, has won pretty easily against underfinanced opponents.  Murphy outpolled Bush by considerable amounts.  But Murphy may be a crook (well, of course, he’s a Republican! but we may have proof!

At least three Democrats are running: Beth Hafer ; Steve O’Donnell (fix that site, please Steve!) and Daniel Wholey.

PA-19 R +12  .70

The 19th is on the southern edge of PA, in the middle of the state, bordering MD and including Gettysburg and York

Platts, first elected in 2000, has won very easily.  

No confirmed challenger.

Summary: PA probably has more seats in play than any other state.  In fact, few of the seats (on either side) are really safe.  For the Democrats, the four freshmen (Altmire, Sestak, Murphy, and Carney) are all vulnerable; if Murtha retires, his seat is in play.  For the Republicans, only the 16th and 19th look safe.

so 11 Democrats   6 safe

   8 Republicans  2 safe

   

CA-04: Doolittle Will Retire

Rats!

Republican Rep. John Doolittle, who is under investigation in a congressional lobbying scandal, plans to announce Thursday that he’ll retire from Congress at the end of his current term, according to a Republican official who spoke with Doolittle.

The official spoke on condition of anonymity pending a public announcement in Doolittle’s Northern California district.

Good grief.

IL-14: Four Candidates and a Future Congressman

The League of Women Voters held a forum last night for all the candidates running for the open seat in Illinois’ 14th congressional district, which was formerly held by Dennis Hastert. The debate will be put up on the League website, and we’ll link to it on our campaign website when it goes up.

Excitement and interest in this race are high, and this showed in the number of people who came out to see the debate. We were told the LWV expected about 200 hundred people but today’s papers report the crowd was 600.

The most interesting part of it to me were the alliances that formed on the stage. Two of the three Republican candidates were there, as well as three of the four Democrats. The interesting thing was, even though they were at two tables, seated by party, Republican Chris Lauzen made this race not about Democrat vs. Republican, but about grassroots vs. big money. Bill Foster was compared to Jim Oberweis many times last night, and Jim Oberweis stated agreement with Bill Foster on issues more often than with Lauzen, his fellow Republican. I’m not sure if this says more about Bill Foster or Chris Lauzen… you can be the judge of that.

Audience members  saw many examples of John’s leadership last night. Some of the local media recognized this:

I’m a fighter and a leader,” Laesch offered, adding his willingness to take stances on tough issues, such as his opposition to the war in Iraq.

The Republicans rattled off all the Bush talking points (the surge is working, support the troops, 9-11, terrorism, etc. etc.). The other two Democrats said bring the troops home end the war, but then talked about a slow, drawn-out withdrawal and redeployment.  Then John spoke. He pointed out that first and foremost, he supports the troops and that he is the only veteran in the race. John said that his background as an intelligence analyst is the reason he has been actively against the war since before it actually began. He was involved in writing the 110 day plan for Iraq during his service. That is a write up that shows where we would be in 110 days if we were to attack a country, so he knew exactly what would happen when we attacked Iraq. John talked about being on site when Bin Laden bombed our embassies as one of the first ones there, figuring out who did it and what our next move should be. These are the things that give John the insight needed to deal with this incredibly complicated and sensitive situation.

John also showed leadership on local issues, such as the proposed “Prairie Parkway,” otherwise known as the “Hastert Highway.” Of course, Oberweis was the only candidate who came out in support of this wildly unpopular plan. Coincidentally, he is also the candidate endorsed by Hastert. The other three candidates came out in support of the 47 Plus Coalition, a group proposing repairing and widening State highway 47 as an alternative to the Parkway. This is interesting because John is a member of the 47 Plus Coalition, and has supported it from the beginning.

Audience members saw that John is indeed the “Democrat’s most formidable candidate against… Jim Oberweis.” John took the fight straight to Oberweis. When asked how the candidates would keep the country’s economy on track (specifically with regards to the Bush tax cuts and trade policies) John pointed out that Oberweis has a vested personal interest in free trade, because 84% of his business investments are in foreign countries, predominantly China. I could have sworn I saw him turn red in the face and shift in his seat. He didn’t have a response to John’s statement, he just reiterated his support of free trade.

Lastly, I would like to cover the health care issue all on it’s own, because it is such an important issue, and once again shows John’s leadership and preparedness to fight for us as soon as he gets to Congress. John showed his leadership once again. He was the only one who came out and said he would sign on to  HR 676, single payer universal health care . The republicans talked about the free market, Foster had an overly complicated answer dealing with overhead costs and technological “solutions,” and Stein talked about closing tax gaps to get insurance for the uninsured (in which he also said a line-item veto would be helpful). John showed he was polished and ready for attack on this position, however. In response to the “America isn’t ready for single-payer” argument, John had an AP Poll that showed almost two-thirds of the American people want Medicare for all. America is ready for single-payer, and John is ready to fight for it.

John wrapped up the debate nicely, showing yet again his readiness and organization. He reminded the audience to vote twice in the February 5th primary, once for the special, and once for the general. He also mentioned the campaign website where audience members (and you!) can go to volunteer and contribute.

To make a long story short, John is ready to lead the fight for you today, against Jim Oberweis and against Blue Dogs and Republicans in Congress. Help send him there by going to the website and volunteering and contributing to the campaign.

Thanks,

Kristen Lash

Blog Team Coordinator

John Laesch for US Congress

The races to watch…Bad news for Texas

Texas is one of those states that is causing problems for Democrats in general.  While all but 3 of its 32 congressional districts are not in play, 2 of those that are in play are held by Democrats and one of those is a major Republican target.  

A strong play in other states will force Republicans to play more defense than offense which is why it is imperative that we offer assisstance to the candidates that we identify as strong contenders in any way we can.  Whether that is spending time voulnteering for their campaigns, sending money, or blogging about them to raise internet awareness like we do here.  

I send many thanks to some posters here that have made me aware of candidates like Benjamin Lodmell who, if given the money and time, could make a solid challenger in a Republican district forcing the Republicans to spend some of the precious little money that they have.  As of the third quarter fundraising, the Democrats have enough money to spend slightly over 200,000 dollars on everyone of the 104 races I have thus far identified and still have enough money left over to match the NRCC dollar for dollar in every race they spend money on.  

Here in Texas, the first race I’ll cover is the only good news in the state.  the 10th CD is the one Democratic pick up opportunity I see in this state at this time.  Larry Doherty and Dan Grant are going to battle it out for the Democratic nomination but I believe that Larry Doherty, a Judge on the television show Texas Justice, and successful Houston Attorney, will come out on top in this race.  Larry Doherty is then well positioned to take this fight to the Republicans.  His CoH totals after the third quarter were slightly more than 100,000 behind Republican Congressman Micheal McCaul.  With an infusion of cash and some help in this district, we can once again take the fight to the Republicans.  

Now, the bad news begins, the next 2 districts are Democratic defense districts.  To no one’s surprise, Texas 22 and Congressman Nick Lampson is on this list.  Lampson won this district last year after Tom DeLay left a sour taste in the mouth of the constiuents but now it appears this district is ready to head back to its roots and elect a Republican.  Lampson has been raising money like crazy and has over 800,000 in the bank.  His main opposition is split in a 3 way primary with a few gnats flying around waiting for the time to strike to reach the top tier.  Former Sugarland Mayor Dean Hrbacek, Navy Veteran Peter Olsen, and the 06 nominee Shelley Sekula-Gibbs are all raising serious cash (over 100,000 dollars, Sekula Gibbs has over 600,000 at the top of the list) but Former Pasadena Mayor John Manlove, Judge Jim Squier and State Representative Robert Talton are all starting to raise money and could seriously compete in this race.  A 6 way primary could be just what the doctor ordered to save Lampson.  

Texas 23 is my final race here, where Ciro Rodriguez handily defeated the incumbent Republican in 2006.  While I can’t locate an FEC report for Ciro, the green papers list one of his opponents, businessman and attorney Francisco Canseco has raised over 800,000 dollars but has a primary challenger in the form of County Commissioner Lyle Larson, who enetered the race just before the deadline.  

These 2 seats could be very intersting and it could also be interesting to watch the only other piece of decent news coming out of the state.  While Glenn Melancon in the 4th district is unable to make my list here and now, he may be able to do so in the future.  I will be going back over some races and doing additions as the 4th quarter fundraising numbers become available, so keep checking for updates.  

IL-14 Roundup #3

the two primaries in illinois’ 14th congressional district are fast approaching.  the biggest piece of news in this race is that the endorsement session for the chicago tribune is available online:

but given the importance of this particular race — voters will not only be choosing their nominees for the general election in november, but also their nominees for the special election in march to fill the term of retiring dennis hastert — there’s plenty of other news.

we can file the recent articles into three categories: news about the special election, coverage of the numerous debates in this race and news about the candidates themselves.  the authoritative illinois issues online has comprehensive coverage in this month’s issue.  congressional quarterly, as usual, had two articles about the race, starting with a setup piece that mentions how important it is for democrats to win this seat:

The next special House election – the sixth of the 2007-08 cycle – will occur March 8 in Illinois’ 14th District, a mostly suburban district west of Chicago where the winner will succeed former Republican House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert, who resigned Nov. 26. That contest may turn out to be the most competitive special election this cycle: While Illinois’ 14th gave Bush 55 percent of the vote in the 2004 election, it is the most politically competitive in presidential vote performance of the seven districts that have held special elections this election cycle or soon will.

The chief contestants – Democratic scientist Bill Foster and Republicans Chris Lauzen, a state senator, and Jim Oberweis, a dairy executive – are well-funded and are preparing to run in a Feb. 5 special primary election that will coincide with the state’s regularly scheduled primary election.

another article notes the potential confusion of asking voters to cast two different ballots.

the ongoing debates between the three democrats (and, sometimes, two republicans — joe serra seems to be MIA) have generated plenty of coverage.  the chambers of commerce breakfast in st. charles continued to receive coverage, here and here

both chicago public radio and wgn radio covered last night’s (january 8) debate; i don’t know why their aren’t streaming versions of their coverage.  the kane county chronicle also covered the debate.  there was also this coverage of the endorsement session at the aurora beacon news.

john laesch woke up to good news this morning: state senator mike noland has endorsed him.  last week, bill foster was in the news for receiving endorsements by elected officials of both parties.

jotham stein won among democrats in eric zorn’s year end reader poll (1,375 total responses)  biil baar wonders if that doesn’t make stein our huckabee?  stein started a new youtube page that includes the introductory video on his website, as well as two new videos: Global Warming and Immigration Reform v. Scientist’s National ID Card.  

booman tribune has an old interview of john laesch that now comes up on google search.  his campaign continues its periodic campaign updates here and here.  laesch’s former blogger also talks about Podunk,IL vs. the New Chicago Machine.  the laesch youtube page covers his simmons appearance (broken into multiple videos and quentin young’s endorsement.

support for bill foster has been growing on the blogs.  this post notes that foster is being called the front runner in the race.  i also overlooked the bill foster interview epluribus media conducted at yearlykos.  another post looks at foster’s energy proposals.

foster has benefitted both from his status as a scientist and the recent cutbacks at fermilab (a major employer in the district).  his science credentials are finding posts on political and non-political blogs, including Physics and Physicists: Politics & Science, and Open Science Thread: Politics & Science and another Open Science Thread.  finally, Nuclear Mangos covered foster.  one blogger wants you to know that he contributed to foster because of this.  the cutbacks at fermilab have gotten foster mentions in the local press, Fermilab under threat due to federal budget and Federal budget so far not good for Fermilab.

it’s become apparent to everyone that all three campaigns have active efforts in contacting voters at their door or phone.  the foster campaign has begun it’s mail effort and is more frequently advertising on television.  i expect the stein campaign to begin to mail to voters shortly; no one knows if laesch will have the money to mail.

perhaps the biggest development is the effort at the regional level to organize democrats to participate in the special election in march.  a loose coalition of party organizations and grassroots activists are beginning to focus on this race after the super duper tuesday.  the most recent development in this area is the interest in taking the lessons learned in iowa by midwestern democrats and apply them to this special election.

the foster campaign reports:

Bill Foster has been picking up the endorsements of local leaders in the district, including former Newark Mayor Roger Ness, DeKalb County Board member Robert Rosemier, Kane County Board members Gerald Jones, Bonnie Lee Kunkel, and Rudy Neuberger, and Aldermen Chuck Brown (Geneva), Mike Saville (Aurora), and Jim Volk (Batavia).  His message that, as a scientist and businessman, he’s an experienced problem solver ready to address the issues facing our community and our nation and ready to change the ways thinsg are done in Washington, is gaining traction and resonating with voters.

they have numerous events coming up in the next week including activities in winfield township, west dundee and elgin.

the other campaigns did not report anything new for the next week or so.

as for outlook, it will be interesting to see how the different campaign’s messages resonate with voters.  while laesch has a certain emotional appeal to the area’s progressives, foster apparently has an equally emotional appeal to those effected by the fermilab job losses.  other residents fearing for their jobs may coalesce around foster, as well.  stein has reacted strongly to some of foster’s proposals, and this may provide another emotional base for support.  but you have to reach people through all the noise and connect with them to secure an emotional base.  the debates scheduled with the republican candidates doesn’t really help the three differentiate themselves from one another…

MS-Sen: Musgrove Insults Gulf Coast, Writes Off South Mississippi Voters

This past Monday, when former Governor Ronnie Musgrove traveled to Gulfport, Miss., to announce his campaign for the U.S. Senate seat recently vacated by Senator Trent Lott, he stood on the property across from the harbor . . . and totally missed the boat.

Not once did his speech utter the phrase Katrina recovery. Not once did his speech mention insurance reform. Not once did his speech tell Mississippi’s Katrina survivors that he intends to work shoulder-to-shoulder with Congressman Gene Taylor, our much beloved local hero, to pass Taylor’s ground-breaking insurance reform legislation, which is now awaiting action in the US Senate. Not . . . one. . . word. Nope. None. Nada. Zero. Zilch.

Talk about  a slap in the face. Come to our home area and not deliberately tell us in your SPEECH that our primary problems with insurance and other Katrina-related recovery issues are your priorities?! What an insult to every man, woman, and child whose lives Katrina impacted.

That Musgrove did this while standing on a slab that had been the foundation for the 1st Presbyterian Church of Gulfport is more than merely stepping a toe over the line. Using the ruins of our devastation—a place of worship, no less—as the backdrop, a prop for his declaration that he is the self-appointed savior of our state’s vacant senator position clearly demonstrates the galling depth and breadth of this man's hubris.

For those of us living inside the Katrina-ravaged region, Musgrove's silence in his campaign speech is a bit akin to heresy. The most pressing issues for the state’s three coastal counties are recovery from Katrina’s destruction and thwarting the financial stranglehold that the insurance industry has on South Mississippi’s families and business owners. Apparently, the obvious has evaded this obtuse former one-term governor. Guess he is writing off seeking votes from South Mississippi voters, voters who reside in the state's second most populous area.

Well, like Arte Johnson's German soldier character on Rowan and Martin's Laugh-In used to say, “Verrrrry Interesting. But Schtupit!”

On Monday, January 7th, a friend told me he had just seen on TV an undecided New Hampshire resident pose a question on skyrocketing property insurance rates to Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. While homeowners way up the eastern coastline share our insurance concerns, here deep inside the Katrina-ravaged region, Musgrove's formal remarks remained silent about  the severely negative impact that outrageous insurance practices and rates are having on families, businesses, community organizations and non-profits just like the very church on whose slab the candidate used as a campaign prop.

Speaking of the church site as a prop, here's a question the Musgrove campaign ought to answer. Did Musgrove get permission to use the  property or did he just show up like a squatter? If the church still owns the property and gave permission to use its slab for a political event, that would be a violation of its 501c3 status and would put in jeopardy its nonprofit status—as well it should, were that the case. However, I cannot imagine that the church would have done such a thing. So, just how did the Musgrove campaign come to use that property as its prop?

Anyway, displaying tremendous hubris with which he intends to run his campaign, Musgrove's prepared remarks clearly ignored completely what will drive South Mississippians to vote for a U.S. Senate candidate. If he ignores the issue that cuts across party, religion, economics, race, and gender as he is attempting to court us to vote for him at the ballot box, we can imagine how he would treat us were he to become our next elected senator. Heck, every woman knows that regardless of how a man treats us during courtship, his behavior won't get any better with marriage. 😉 When it comes to Musgrove's attempt to woo us here on the coast, we should heed this wisdom of women's experience.

Slabs Symbolize Big Insurance's Big Betrayal
The area’s plentiful slabs remind us continuously of Big Insurance’s Big Betrayal. That Musgrove used the church’s slab as a prop to pretend that he would champion our plight insults every South Mississippi home- and business owner.

We are looking for candidates to champion reasonable, affordable insurance, to reign in the industry’s devastating and unnecessary blows to our financial security and economy.  We are looking for candidates who will provide the federal leadership we need to rebuild homes in which to live and rebuild businesses in which to work as well as provides the good and services that create an abundant quality of life.

We are looking for the candidate in this race who will be the U.S. Senate counterpart to Congressman Gene Taylor: an unflinching, fierce, courageous, effective public servant who gets the job done for his constituents.  We are looking for the candidate who will demand insurance reform . . . because we are demanding insurance reform.

Coastians Continue to Demand Insurance Reform
In Sunday's editorial in the Sun Herald titled “Barbour should reconvene commission to assess our recovery,” the paper wrote

More than two years after Katrina, large portions of South Mississippi have not been mended. This is especially true for properties located between the hurricane's debris line and the shoreline.

In other words, the geography where the insurance industry has betrayed coastal families and business owners through wrongly denying wind damage claims. The same geography where he insurance industry has pulled back on the types of damage it will cover then skyrocketed its policies—where it will provide coverage at all. Big Insurance has priced coverage out of an easily affordable range for most home and business owners here in South Mississippi.

Two comments to the Herald’s editorial yesterday poignantly articulated this demand for insurance reform.

“The insurance industry should feel real good, it has single handedly stifled the rebuilding of the Gulf Coast…”

“All you have to do is drive down Highway 90 from Biloxi to Bay St. Louis to see it. It looks like the worlds largest vacant lot.”

 

Blind as a Bat without Radar

Why did the former governor not make our recovery and insurance reform a part of his  speech which he delivered in four different parts of the state? Goodness knows that interim Senator Roger Wicker most certainly included them in his speech at the coast airport when he quickly flew in and  flew out of here on New Year's Eve. If a Republican's campaign kick off speech included the phrases “Congressman Gene Taylor”  “multiple peril insurance” and “Katrina recovery”,  why didn't candidate Ronnie Musgrove?

In all fairness, Musgrove did FINALLY speak the words insurance reform, multiple peril insurance legislation, and Congressman Gene Taylor–ONLY when WLOX-TV 13, the coast's only television station, put Musgrove on the spot.
 
Quickly Musgrove  returned the interview to the primary subject of his campaign kick off theme: beating up the interim Senator whom Governor Barbour recently appointed.  The Associated Press title of its piece on Musgrove's campaign speech reflects his priorities: “Musgrove Immediately Jabs Wicker In Senate Campaign.”

Oh boy, yeah, that is the priority that Mississippians in general and Katrina-fatigued families specifically want senate candidates to exhibit.  Apparently, Musgrove is flying through hurricane country blind as a bat without radar.

© 2008 Ana Maria Rosato. All rights reserved. Originally published on January 8, 2008, at A.M. in the Morning!

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Ana Maria authors A.M. in the Morning!, dispatches from Katrina's ground zero . . . a distinctly progressive political perspective.

In March of 2007, this native daughter drove from her home in Silicon Valley, Calif., to surprise her mother with a visit to their family home in Bay St. Louis–ground zero for Katrina's devastation. The surprise was on Ana Maria.

She launched her blog in May 2007 to express her dismay and provide detailed, poignant, on-the-ground accounts of what the people of the Gulf Coast are still experiencing nearly two years after Katrina's devastation.

Not for the faint of heart, A.M. in the Morning! provides first-hand accounts of post-Katrina life written in a scathing style redolent of the region's famous cuisine–hot, strong and spicy. Nobody escapes Ana Maria's wrath whether they are the callous insurance industry, the bumbling leadership of FEMA, do-nothing politicians, or incompetent government contractors.

A progressive political blog with a decidedly activist bent, A.M. in the Morning! includes her Center for Political Hell Raising, which provides activist tools of ready-made email letters, addresses, phone scripts and phone numbers to whomever is lucky enough to be caught in her cross hairs.  

From the Gulf Coast of Miss. to the heartland of Nashville, Tennessee, from the nation’s capitol to Silicon Valley, California, Ana Maria has been politically active as a professional and a volunteer on the local, state, and national levels.

Ana Maria is committed to using her blog and podcast to reinvigorate the discussion and generate a renewed national sense of purpose to efficiently and effectively rebuild the area.

Congressional races by state: MS, KY, WV

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos

In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, IL, and MD; today, MS where filing closes on 1/11, WV, where it closes on 1/26 and KY, where they close on 1/29

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics.  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

Mississippi has 4 congressional districts

2 are held by Democrats, 2 by Republicans

West Virginia has 3 seats; 2 held by Democrats and 1 by a Republican

Kentucky has 6 seats; 2 held by Democrats and 4 by Republicans

The 6 held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?       rating

KY-03     D+2     .30      Yarmuth           Yes             Vulnerable

KY-06     R+7     .56      Chandler          No

MS-02     D+10    .14      Thompson          No

MS-04     R+16    .52      Taylor            No

WV-01     R+6     .67      Mollohan          No

WV-03     D+0     .71      Rahall            Yes             Mostly safe

OK, Taylor, Mollohand and Rahall are hardly my ideal Democrats; but they are running without serious Republican opposition in Republican districts.

The seats held by Republicans are

KY-01 R+10 .74

The 1stis mostly the southeastern corner of the state along the TN border, but it loops up around KY-02.

Whitfield, first elected in 1994, does not appear to have an opponent.

KY-02 R +13 .73

The 2nd is more or less the middle of the state.  

Lewis, also first elected in 1994, and also does not appear to have an opponent.

KY-04 R+12 .74

The 4th is the northern part of KY, bordering OH and IN

Davis, first elected in 2004, had a relatively close race in 2006, when he beat Ken Lucas 52-43, with the rest going to a libertarian.  Davis spent over $4 million (after spending $3 million in 2004) while Lucas spent about $1.5 million.

He’s being challenged again, this time by Michael Kelley (One heck of a nice website, if you ask me, with embedded video, and good links)

KY-05 R +8 .79

The 5th is the easternmost part of KY, bordering VA and WV.

Rogers, first elected in 1980, has won easily for years, sometimes unopposed.

This time, he does have an opponent, Kenneth Stepp, who has his own blog .

MS-01 R+10 .63

The first is the northeast portion of MS, along the border with TN.

Wicker, who was first elected in 1994, is leaving to be a Senator.  

I don’t really know what’s going on…it’s a very Republican district, but I don’t have any specific information; there is some info in this diary and comments

MS-03 R+14  .52

The 3rd cuts diagonally across MS from Natchez in the SW corner of the state (bordering LA) to Starkville and the AL border.

Pickering, first elected in 1996, is also retiring.

Another seat where I don’t have good info.

WV-02 R +5 .74

The 2nd cuts across the middle of WV from east to west, and borders on both OH and MD (and almost PA).

Capito, first elected in 2000, has had some significant challenges.  In 2006, she spent over $2 million to get 57% of the vote against Mike Callaghan, who had about $600,000.

At least two Democrats are running: John Unger and Thornton Cooper .  Unger seems to have raised quite a lot of money – I didn’t total it, but it looks like about $100,000 already.  

Summary:

In KY, Yarmuth seems vulnerable; Chandler might be, as well, but no one is running.  Among the Repubs, only Davis seems vulnerable.

In MS, both Democrats are unopposed.  The Republican situation has me flummoxed.

In WV, we are safe, and Capito might be vulnerable.