Month: January 2008

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos

In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, IL, MD, MS, WV, KY, PA, NC, NM and IN; today, NC where the deadline is 2/29 and NE, where it is 3/3

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

NC has 13 congressional districts, 6 are held by Republicans, 7 by Democrats

NE has 3 districts, all Republican

The districts held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?     rating

NC-01    D+9     .28       Butterfield        No

NC-02    R+3     .50       Etheridge          No

NC-04    D+6     .44       Price              No

NC-07    R+3     .40       McIntyre           Yes          Safe

NC-11    R+7     .73       Shuler             Yes          Vul (?)

NC-12    D+11    .15       Watt               No

NC-13    D+2     .39       Miller             No

basically, all these seats are pretty safe except maybe Shuler’s.

As for the Republicans

NC-03 R+15 .61

NC-03 is a bizarrely shaped district on the eastern part of NC, bordering on the Atlantic. It’s gerrymandered with NC-01. NC-01 is 50% Black and has median income of $28,410 (one of the lowest in the USA).  NC-03 is 17% Black and has a median income of $37,510; OK, only some of that is land that could be either CD…but….

Jones, first elected in 1994, has not been seriously challenged since, although his opponents recently have had no money.  He has recently become much less conservative, having a full about-face on the war. That accounts for a primary challenger.

His Democratic challenger is Marshall Adame , a kossack

NC-05 R+15  .79

NC-05 is the northern central part of NC, along the VA border.  

Foxx, first elected in 2004, was the survivor of a nasty Republican primary that year.  She won her general election relatively easily, though still getting 30,000 votes fewer than Bush did.

This year, one Democrat has announced Roy Carter , and several others might run: You can read about a debate they had in this live blog diary .

NC-06 R+17  .76

NC-06 is a weird shaped district in the middle of the state. One reason it’s so odd is to let NC-12 run along and through it, stopping at every Black community; another is so that NC-02 can carve the Black areas out of the eastern part of NC-06.  So, NC-02 is 30% Black, NC-12 is 45% Black, NC-06 is 9% Black.

Coble, first elected in 1984, has not been seriously challenged in decades.  But he’s getting old, and doesn’t appear to have filed.  The latest news on his campaign website is from 2004.

The only announced challenger is Johnny Carter.  

If Coble runs, he will be tough to beat.  If he retires…well,it’s still a Republican district, but things could get interesting.

NC-08 R+3 .37

NC-08 is the southwestern part of NC, along the SC border.

Hayes, first elected in 1998, has faced tough fights, never getting 60% and only once getting 55%.  In 2006, he beat Larry Kissel by 329 votes out of 121,000, in one of the closest races in the country.

Kissell is running again, and several others may run.  Kissell announced his run right after the last election.  This time the DCCC is fully behind Kissell. And Larry is a frequent poster on daily Kos

NC-09 R+12 .64

NC-09 is another odd shaped district, this one in the southern central part of NC, bordering SC. Again, this one is weird because of NC-12.  

Myrick, first elected in 1994, has won easily since, against underfinanced opponents.  In 2004, she got 17,000 more votes than Bush.

There are two formally announced challengers:

Ross Overby .  Ross seems like a moderate.  One nice feature on his website, though, is a button “if you usually vote Republican, click here”.  In a district like NC-09, a winning Democrat has to appeal to Republicans

and

Harry Taylor who seems more progressive.

and one who seems to be running: Bill Glass, who ran in 2006.

NC-10 R+15 .70

NC-10 is a north-south strip, separating the western tip of the state from the rest.

McHenry, first elected in 2004, won fairly easily against under-funded opponents.  He got about the same number of votes as Bush in 2004

His Democratic opponent this time is Steve Ivester

NE-01 R+12 .66

NE-01 is the eastern third of NE, excluding Omaha

Fortenberry, first elected in 2004, has had surprisingly tough races.  In 2004, he won 54-43, and in 2006, he won 58-42, both times against well-funded opponents, in races that cost roughly $2 million each, about evenly split between  incumbent and challenger.  In 2004, he got 26,000 votes less than Bush.

There are no confirmed challengers.  Maxine Moul, the 2006 challenger, may run again.

NE-02 R+9 .41

NE-02 is Omaha and suburbs

Terry, first elected in 1998, had his toughest race in 2006, when he won 55-45, despite outspending Jim Esch by about 2-1.

There is no confirmed challenger. State Sen Tom White may run

NE-03  R+24 .76

NE-03 is the vast, western 2/3 of NE; more rural than 92% of all districts.

Smith, first elected in 2006, had a tough race against Scott Kleeb, winning 55-45 (Bush, by contrast, got 75% in 2004)

Kleeb may run again

The Dems and the Repubs have made their choices:

Jon Elrod’s reputation as a hard worker with a track record of winning elections in districts that favor Democrats earned him the Republican nomination to fill the 7th Congressional District seat Sunday.

…

His opponent in the March 11 special election is Andre Carson, whom Democrats selected Saturday to run for the seat held by his grandmother, Julia Carson, until her death last month.

Both decisions were made by party committees, not by the public. The GOP probably got their strongest candidate (relatively speaking), while we wound up with just about our weakest. I’m not thrilled. One diarist at Blue Indiana is even less happy. And CQ rates this seat – which is D+8.7 – at just “Lean Dem.”

Note, though, that the special election, which is on March 11th, is not on the same day as the primary for the November general. The primary will be held as previously scheduled on May 6th. That means that whether Carson wins or loses the special, he might not be our nominee this fall. (Elrod, on the other hand, is unopposed in the GOP primary.)

I hate to be a wet blanket, but recent history in this district – plus the only known poll on the race – doesn’t make me sanguine. I just hope we don’t wind up with another MA-05 on our hands – or worse.

(One for the good guys – promoted by DavidNYC)

Hinds County Judge Bobby Delaughter ruled a couple of hours ago that Governor Barbour (R) exceeded his authority in declaring the special election be held in November 2008 to fill former Senator Trent Lott’s seat.

The Judge ruled that the special election will now have to be held on or before March 19, 2008!  Expect this to go to the state Supreme Court.

This is great news for state Democrats.  I’m sure Chuck Schumer is breathing a nice sigh of relief… for now.

For those unfamiliar with Judge Delaughter – who I know personally to be a great, fairminded judge – refer to the movie Ghosts of Mississippi.  Alec Baldwin does a good job playing Bobby.

Woo-hoo! A Democrat has stepped up to take a crack at this long-shot race. His name: Bill Cahir. I don’t know anything more about him than this article, but he sounds just like the right kind of candidate.

State College native and Iraq war veteran Bill Cahir, who was motivated by the Sept. 11 attacks and war on terror to join the Marine Corps reserves at age 34, plans to seek the Democratic nomination for the 5th Congressional District seat being vacated by retiring Republican U.S. Rep. John Peterson.

One potential weakness is that he doesn’t currently live in the district.

Cahir enters the race with strong State College roots – his father, John Cahir, was vice provost and dean of undergraduate education at Penn State from 1993-2002. His mother, Mary Anne Cahir, was the university’s chief fund-raiser in the Philadelphia region.

But Cahir hasn’t lived in the district since college.

Currently living in Northern Virginia, he plans to return to his birthplace, Bellefonte, to fulfill his dream of running for Congress.

“I have to be candid, I’m moving back to my hometown in the hopes of representing my home district and at the most critical time in our nation’s histroy,” said Cahir.

Cahir’ possible primary opponents include the current mayor of Lock Haven, Richard Vilello Jr., and Keith Bierly, a former Centre County commissioner and current chairman of the Pennsylvania Milk Marketing Board with many connections. Neither Vilello nor Bierly have officailly announced their candidacies.

More background on Cahir, who served in Ramadi and Fallujah from August 2004-March 2005 and again in Fallujah from September 2006-April 2007:

Before his career in journalism, which included writing for the Lebanon Daily News, Hanover Evening Sun, York Dispatch and newspapers in New Jersey and New York, Cahir worked as a staff assistant to Senate Labor and Human Resources Committee from 1990 to 1993, and as a staff assistant on health care issues for former U.S. Sen. Harris Wofford, D-Pa., from August 1993 until he left office in January 1995.

He was part of Sen. Edward Kennedy’s, D-Mass., labor and economic policy team that helped pass the Family and Medical Leave Act and other laws.

He’s also steeped in federal education issues including No Child Left Behind and the Individuals with Disabilities Act from three years writing for Education Daily.

Update: Another dem, Richard Vilello, has officially entered the race, as well as 2 more Republican hopefuls. See the Centre Daily Times linked above for coverage or my diaries at DKos.

The first new ad for Steve Novick for Senate, produced by Eichenbaum & Associates (of Russ Feingold campaign fame), has been released!

Just $5,980 will let us purchase time on the Late Show to show our support for Letterman’s pro-labor stand during the writer’s strike, reach the influential Oprah audience and advertise on CNN during the January 21 Democratic Presidential Debate.

Help us get the word out about this “savagely smart, issue-driven, relentless as a junkyard dog” progressive candidate (Oregonian, 4/19/07)!

Thanks,
Andrew Gorry
Novick for Senate

The reviews are in, and consumer spending this holiday season was up a mere 3.6 percent over the year before.  It was the weakest increase in at least four years, as families purchased fewer presents to put under the tree — and spent one-third of that increase on gasoline.

The news is the latest evidence that the free spending fueled by Washington’s aimless policies in Iraq has turned our economy into the equivalent of a grade-B horror flick come to life — Return of the Living Debt.

While the Bush-Cheney administration and its allies such as Rep. Mike McCaul squander more than $3 billion of our tax dollars every week in Iraq, economic security in central Texas communities continues to suffer.  Job creation is slowing down, unemployment is rising, and debt-driven growth is bottoming out.  The world’s first trillion-dollar war, almost all of it borrowed, is creating economic casualties here at home as the new year gets underway.

In addition, the collapse of our nation’s mortgage and credit markets is now rippling through the economy.  At least two million middle-class families will probably to lose their homes to foreclosure.  

Apparently following the example set by Mr. McCaul’s political bosses in Washington, D.C., consumers have borrowed against their homes and maxed out their credit cards.  But as the lackluster recent holiday sales show, we aren’t borrowing to buy widescreen TVs or other luxury items.  We’re going into debt to cover escalating health care costs, soaring college tuition rates, and to pay for gas to get to jobs, while our paychecks are stagnating.  

No wonder economic security is now the top issue this election year. Merely breaking even has never been an acceptable notion for Americans — especially when one of the culprits is the war in Iraq, which has not only lost mainstream support but is helping to increase the highest national debt in history.

Here is some of what Washington should be doing to improve middle-class economic security:

• Universal health care.  These days, access to high-quality, low-cost health care should be a right, not a privilege. I support a plan to leverage down health costs by creating a single nationwide risk pool, to guarantee open disclosure of all prices so that we know what a pill costs before swallowing it, to insist on unitary pricing so that everyone pays the same price for the same product or service, and a renewed commitment to insuring every child.

• Energy independence.  Invest in alternative sources of energy.  Wind, solar, geo-thermal, bio-diesel, and other alternative energy technologies are an opportunity for the U.S. to become a global leader again.  The result?  Greater energy independence, fewer energy costs, and the creation of sustainable jobs.  Repealing taxpayer subsidies for polluters will improve our economy, clean up our environment, and strengthen our national and economic security.

• Expand the Earned Income Tax Credit.  This pro-work, pro-family IRS program, first created by Ronald Reagan, helps middle- and low-income working families obtain federal tax credits.  Unlike tax cuts for the wealthy, the EITC puts money directly into local economies.  Last year, 2.1 million Texas recipients qualified for more than $4.3 billion in refunds, with the average return coming to nearly $2,000.  This money is spent in local businesses on school supplies, small appliances, vehicle repairs, and other good or services that may have been deferred during the rest of the year for lack of spending cash.

• Invest in education.  China, India, and others are investing in the next generation of our global competitors.  Let’s reverse the Bush-Cheney administration’s cuts in Pell Grants for eligible college students, reform their failed ‘No Child Left Behind’ boondoggle, and once and for all stop them from trying to siphon tax dollars out of public schools to pay for a private-school voucher scheme.

• Micro-lending.  Expand the scope and lending limits of the Small Business Administration’s innovative micro-loan program. This home-grown wealth program helps encourage local companies and entrepreneurs, and the money stays in local communities in the form of higher tax revenues, consumer spending, sustainable local jobs, and economic opportunities for middle-class and working families.

These steps may not be easy, but they are essential.  The free spending in Iraq and laissez-faire enforcement of financial regulations by the Bush-Cheney administration and its reliable allies in Congress have created a danger far more horrifying than a grade-B Hollywood movie.  They have placed the economic security of the American middle-class at risk.

This election, let’s have a serious conversation about our priorities to move forward.  It begins by ending the war in Iraq and shifting the resources we are spending there to things that matter the most — universal health care, better public schools and access to college, a stronger Social Security trust fund and comprehensive services for our veterans and their families — here at home.

These are some of my ideas for positive change. The last thing we can afford is more of the same. We need a change in Washington — now.

http://www.dangrantforcongress…

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos

In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, IL, MD, MS, WV, KY, and PA; today, NM, where the filing  is 2/12, and IN, where it is 2/22.

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics.  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

NM has 3 congressional districts, 2 are held by Republicans, 1 by a Democrat

IN has 9 districts, 5 Democratic and 4 Republican

The districts held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?     rating

IN-01     D+8      .45      Visclosky       Yes            Safe (rematch)

IN-02     R+4      .59      Donnelly        Yes            Somewhat vul

IN-07     D+9      .20      none (Carson)   Yes            Prob. safe

IN-08     R+9      .70      Ellsworth       Yes            Unclear

IN-09     R+7      .75      Hill            Yes            Vulnerable            

NM-03     D+6      .34      Udall           No             Udall retiring

Indiana has several vulnerable representatives.

NM-03 is probably safely Democratic….NM will be one wild place, with all the house seats open, and one senate seat, and Richardson running for President (not any more).

Now, for the seats held by Republicans:

IN-03 R+16  .70

IN-03 is the NE corner of IN, bordering MI and OH

Souder, first elected in 1994, has had a couple of fairly close races.  In 2006, he won 54-46 against Thomas Hayhurst, in a relatively low cost race (each spent around $700,000)

Hayhurst may run again, and Mike Montagano is definitely running.  In October, he had more cash on hand than Souder did, and has several endorsements.  Could be interesting

IN-04 R+17 .73

IN-04 is a long, narrow district, in western central IN, including western exurbs of Indianapolis

Buyer, first elected in 1992, has won easily without spending huge amounts, the last two times against David Sanders

Sanders might run again, and Nels Ackerson is running. His website makes him sound distinctly moderate, and this looks like a longshot

IN-05 R+20 .75

IN-05 is also long and narrow, but it’s eastern central IN, including northern and eastern suburbs of Indianopolis.

Burton, first elected in 1982, has won easily, although his closest race ever was in 2006, when Katherine Carr managed to get 31% with almost no money.

She might run again, but there is no confirmed challenger.

IN-06 R+11 .72

IN-06 is yet another long, narrow district, this one on the eastern edge of IN, bordering OH, and home of the famously typical Muncie

Pence, first elected in 2000, has not had well-funded opponents.  In 2006, Barry Welsh got 40% with only $45,000 (to Pence’s $1.3 million).

Welsh is running again; he’s also written about his race on daily Kos .

NM-01 D+2 .34

NM-01 is the center of NM, including Albuquerque

Wilson, first elected in 1998, won one of the closest (maybe the closest) races in the country in 2006, winning by 861 votes out of 210,000, in a race where she spent almost $5 million and her opponent, Patricia Madrid, spent over $3 million.  Now, Wilson is likely to retire to run for Senate.

There are two confirmed Democrats: Martin Heinrich ; Jon Adams ; and (Jason Call has withdrawn, unfortunately), and several others (including Madrid) might run.  No confirmed Republicans yet.  Gonna be interesting!

NM-02 R+6  .37

NM-02 is the southern half of NM.

Pearce, first elected in 2002, and re-elected pretty easily even against well-funded opponents (he won 60-40 in 2004 against Gary King, who spent over $1 million), is probably retiring to run for Senate.

There are 4 confirmed Democrats: Bill McCamley ; Al Kissling ; Harry Teague and Joe Cervantes. McCamley wrote about his candidacy here .

It has been more than two months since my last Senate rankings. With the presidential primaries on every one’s mind, congressional races are looking less urgent, not to mention that there was just very little news coming out of down-the-ballot contests during the holiday period. But a lot has changed since the beginning of November — starting with the number of Senate elections that will be decided in 2008. Trent Lott’s shocking decision to prioritize lobbying over holding the position he was elected to a year before has added a 35th race to our rankings, and has expanded the map for Democrats with an unexpected opportunity.

Full rankings are posted here, on Campaign Diaries.

But Republican prospects are looking up outside of Mississippi. After months of good news for Democrats, the GOP has pushed back and improved its situation in several races, starting with Kentucky and Nebraska where a series of Democratic recruitment failures have diminished the party’s chances of shocking Republicans in red territory. Dems still have hope that Andrew Horne and Steve Kleeb could make things competitive there, but both races look like long-shots right now. Meanwhile, polls in Colorado show that the conventional wisdom that the open seat would be an easy Democratic pick-up might have been a bit too hasty, while Republicans are looking stronger than they did three months ago in Maine and even in New Hampshire.

Yet, Democrats are still in the driver’s seat of next year’s elections. Eleven of the twelve most vulnerable seats are held by Republicans — and it will be very hard for the GOP to save Virginia and New Mexico. Meanwhile, Democrats have to be happy with the way things are shaping up in Alaska, a state that was in few people’s radar screens at the start of the cycle but where polls are now shaping entrenched but ethically challenged Senator Stevens trailing. Over the next few weeks, the recruitment process will come to a close, we will know what to expect in the Mississippi special election and get a feel of how things are shaping up in races where news has been rather slow.

Outlook: Democratic pick-up 4-5 Senate seats.

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 5 seats, for a 56-44 majority.

Likely Takeover (1 Republican seat, 0 Democratic seats)

1. Virginia (Open seat; Previous Ranking: 1)

There is no indication that the race is tightening in Virginia. In fact, most of the news that has come out of the state has revealed dissensions in the Republican camp, as former Governor Gilmore cannot even rally his party behind him. There is nearly continuous talk of an intra-party challenge to Gilmore, and meanwhile Democrat Mark Warner is continuing to amass the necessary money. The latest poll of the race out at the beginning of January has Warner holding on to his double-digit lead. If the race is going to get more competitive, expect things to start shifting next fall in case Virginia comes back to his conservative roots.

Lean Takeover (2 Republican Seats, 0 Democratic Seats)

2. New Mexico (Open; Previous ranking: 4)



A lot has changed in New Mexico since my last rankings. At that time, Democrat Tom Udall had not yet reversed his decision to not run for this open seat though rumors were starting to circulate that he was looking to get back in. He did just that shortly thereafter and has since then become the presumptive nominee of his party as his main rival, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, withdrew from the race.

The Republicans will have to decide between two congressmen of their own, Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce. That in itself should not hurt their chances as competitive primaries often serve as a bounce for a party (unless it becomes too nasty). But Udall nonetheless starts with an edge. Most polls show him to have a clear edge to start out the race — and that is exactly the reason the DSCC was so intent on convincing him to get in the race. But New Mexico remains a very competitive state at the federal level, and the race could tighten up considerably depending on the national mood of the electorate.

3. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu; Previous ranking: 2)

The Shaheen that made the most news since my last rankings is not the Senate candidate but her husband Bill who was Clinton’s co-chair in New Hampshire but had to resign from his position after he opened the subject of Obama’s drug-use and suggested that the GOP will ask whether he had dealt any of it. This episode will probably be forgotten by next year but Jeanne Shaheen already had some ill-will among some Democratic activists in the state, and there is no way to know for now if this could significantly dampen the base’s enthusiasm.

This incident could also be the reason that the latest ARG survey of the race showed a surge by Senator Sununu who suddenly took a lead against Shaheen, whereas poll after poll throughout the summer and fall had suggested that Shaheen was up by a big margin. This will obviously require confirmation by other polls, but odds are the race will get back to equilibrium for a few more months as soon as the memory of the drug episode fades. But it serves as a reminder that Sununu is a good enough of a politician to use Shaheen’s vulnerabilities and pounce his way to victory.

Toss-up (4 R, 1 D)

4. Colorado (Open; Last Ranking: 3)

This is the first time Colorado has not been ranked “Lean take-over.” The conventional wisdom of the race was long that Democrats would hold an advantage in an open-seat scenario given their successes in the past two cycles in this state, all of them occurring in open-seat scenarios (two House seats, one Senate seat and the governorship). To make matters worse for the GOP, they struggled to find a candidate and they ended up settling on former Rep. Shaffer who had lost the 2004 Senate primary; Democrats were confident that Rep. Udall was a much stronger candidate and that he would not struggle to much to pick-up the seat.

But the scenario is playing out quite differently. Shaffer has managed to be taken seriously and the NRSC is no longer writing the seat off — which is already a huge disappointment for Democrats. Furthermore, all polls taken since the late summer show that the race is for now in a toss-up; the consistent tightness of all surveys of the race has to be taken into account and at this moment this race has to be ranked a toss-up. That said, Udall’s position remains a bit stronger — both because of the way recent CO elections have shaped-up and because of the fact that he is in the House now and is a popular and well-known figure in the state. And this is the type of race that the NRSC will abandon quickly if things get tough and they have other seats to defend. We shall keep an eye on any movement in the coming months.

5. Louisiana (Incumbent: Mary Landrieu; Last Ranking: 6)

Louisiana has long been the only Democratic-held seat the GOP had any chance of picking up, and Republicans finally got Treasurer John Kennedy to jump in the race in late November. Kennedy — who ran as a Democrat in 2004 — starts with some good statewide recognition, and this race looks like it might emerge as one of the tightest of the country. Louisiana has been trending Republican for years now, and Katrina accelerated that process; in November, the GOP picked-up the governorship in triumphant manner, and Landrieu has never been a particularly towering incumbent to begin with.

Democrats also have reason to hope: The same day Jindal was elected Governor, Mitch Landrieu — Mary’s brother — won a new term as Lieutenant Governor; a few weeks later, Democrats managed to retain both houses of the Louisiana legislature, though they did lose a lot of seats; and Landrieu is starting with an impressive war chest. There have been two polls released for now, and they confirm that this race is starting as a toss-up: The first, (an independent poll) shows the race very tight with Landrieu 4 points ahead, while an internal poll for Kennedy has him up by 7%.

6. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman; Last Ranking: 6)

Most media stories of the race concentrate on Al Franken’s candidacy and his transition from comic to politician. And even Franken’s doubters have to concede that he is looking like a very serious contender. The fourth quarter numbers came out last week and show that Franken has out-raised Senator Coleman for the third quarter in a row — but Coleman has a 2:1 cash-on-hand advantage. But with all the national press Franken is getting, it’s easy to forget that Mike Ciresi is in the race for the Democratic nomination as well, and he has started running ads before Franken. Both candidates look like they could be strong against Coleman despite being derided as second-tier at the beginning of the cycle;  the most recent poll was released 2 months ago and has Coleman stuck in a statistical tie against both men.

7. Oregon (Incumbent: Gordon Smith; Last Ranking: 7)

The Democratic primary is going strong between House Speaker Jeff Merkley and Steve Novick, who are battling to show their progressive credentials. Merkley got some good news recently by scoring the endorsement of the Oregon AFL-CIO, though Novick recently used the Iowa caucuses to compare Merkley to Hillary Clinton as a force of the establishment. Meanwhile, Senator Gordon Smith is working hard to build a moderate reputation. He was among the first to break with his party over the Iraq War; since then, he has introduced a bill to extend domestic partnerships to federal employees – not the typical Republican move. The first and only public poll of the campaign was released in mid-November and has Smith leading but under 50%– so you can be sure the DSCC will invest heavily in this race.

The rest of the rankings — including all lean retention and likely retention races like Alaska and North Carolina — are posted here, on Campaign Diaries.

You know, it’s very kind of bored now to keep us all in the loop by providing Roundup diaries.  Of particular interest to me is the race in IL-14, so of course when I came back for a pit stop between trips today and saw that he had posted an IL-14 Roundup #3 diary, I took the time to scan it.

Hmmm.  There seems to be very little going on in the Laesch campaign, to hear bored tell it.  Could have sworn I heard about more endorsements recently than those bored now mentions in his coverage of the Laesch campaign, which amounts to this:

john laesch woke up to good news this morning: state senator mike noland has endorsed him.

and this:

booman tribune has an old interview of john laesch that now comes up on google search. his campaign continues its periodic campaign updates here and here. laesch’s former blogger also talks about Podunk,IL vs. the New Chicago Machine, the laesch youtube page covers his simmons appearance (broken into multiple videos and quentin young’s endorsement.

and…

no, I guess that’s about it – all the news bored could find the space or time to bring us about Laesch…

compared to this kind of coverage of Foster:

support for bill foster has been growing on the blogs. this post notes that foster is being called the front runner in the race. i also overlooked the bill foster interview epluribus media conducted at yearlykos. another post looks at foster’s energy proposals

and

foster has benefitted both from his status as a scientist and the recent cutbacks at fermilab (a major employer in the district). his science credentials are finding posts on political and non-political blogs, including Physics and Physicists: Politics & Science, and Open Science Thread: Politics & Science and another Open Science Thread. finally, Nuclear Mangos covered foster. one blogger wants you to know that he contributed to foster because of this. the cutbacks at fermilab have gotten foster mentions in the local press, Fermilab under threat due to federal budget and Federal budge so far not good for Fermilab

and

the foster campaign reports:

Bill Foster has been picking up the endorsements of local leaders in the district, including former Newark Mayor Roger Ness, DeKalb County Board member Robert Rosemier, Kane County Board members Gerald Jones, Bonnie Lee Kunkel, and Rudy Neuberger, and Aldermen Chuck Brown (Geneva), Mike Saville (Aurora), and Jim Volk (Batavia). His message that, as a scientist and businessman, he’s an experienced problem solver ready to address the issues facing our community and our nation and ready to change the ways things are done in Washington, is gaining traction and resonating with voters.

they have numerous events coming up in the next week including activities in winfield township, west dundee and elgin.

Followed by a curt:

the other campaigns did not report anything new for the next week or so.

Hmmm.  Guess that means there’s nothing new to report, eh?  Well, either that or bored is using that line (in reference to upcoming events on calendars) in an attempt to imply that the Foster campaign is where all the action is.

But really, bored seems to be missing a few details.

Let’s see, right there on the Laesch website I find news of several recent endorsements of Laesch that I can find no direct mention of in any (because I went back and checked them all) of bored now’s IL-14 Round Up diaries, including:

? Barbara Ehrenreich, best-selling author of “Nickel & Dimed”

? Studs Terkel (yeah, that Studs Terkel)

? nationally-syndicated radio host Mike Malloy

? Valerie Burd, Mayor, Yorkville

? Robin Sutcliff, 3rd Ward Alderman, Yorkville

? Jim Feeley, Vice-Chairman, Kendall County Democratic Party

? Ruth Anne Tobias, Chairperson, DeKalb County Board

? Lynn Schmitz, Executive Committee member, DeKalb County Democratic Party

? Jerry Sheridan, Chairman, Lee County Democratic Party

? Pat Jones, Jr., Treasurer, Lee County Democratic Party

? Karen Nelson, Whiteside County Board

? Tom Nicholson, Chair, Henry County Board

? Tim Wise, Chief of Police, Annawan

Oh, and lots and lots and lots of PCP endorsements.

Then there are some organizational endorsements that seem to have slipped by bored now in his “Roundup,” like, for instance:

? Independent Voters of Illinois – Independent Precinct Organizations

? IL-14 Progressive Democrats of America

? and the Chicago Progressive Democrats of America

? and the national Progressive Democrats of America

? Democratic Action Political Action Committee

? VET PAC

? Northwestern Illinois Building and Construction Trades Council

? International Union of Operating Engineers – Illinois State Branch

? Western Regional Council of the United Electrical, Radio & Machine Workers of America

? and, of course, John’s own union, Carpenter’s Local 195

At least bored now mentioned John’s AFL-CIO endorsement, in passing.

My personal favorite?  Would have to hands-down be the part where bored now tells us about favorable coverage of Foster (written by, not surprisingly, bored now) by providing text links that read like this

“this post notes that foster is being called the front runner in the race,”

while, in the same Roundup, giving us wildly descriptive text-links, like this about Laesch:

his campaign continues its periodic campaign updates here and here

to Laesch campaign blogs, where if you follow the links there you will find coverage in the Chicago Sun-Times, of Dick Simpson (head of the University of Illinois at Chicago’s Political Science Department, former Chicago alderman, author, progressive leader and columnist for the Sun-Times, who won his aldermanic race running against a much better financed candidate) predicting Laesch

is now headed to victory in the primary (and the March 14 special election to replace retired Hastert) over Bill Foster, a more conservative political newcomer, scientist and wealthy businessman.

But, of course, we wouldn’t want to go so far as to accuse bored now of spinning his roundup diaries to favor a particular candidate.  He does, after all, provide links to things, that link to other things, which in turn cover some of these not-directly-mentioned things.

On the other hand, if I were someone whose foremost intent was comprehensive coverage of the race in IL-14, or for that matter if I were Jotham Stein’s former blogger, I think I’d be taking the time to think through the “fair and balanced” nature of bored now’s “reporting” and “analysis” in his “Roundups” and taking the time to post a few of my own updates.  But I’m not, I’m just “Laesch’s former blogger” and current supporter so I’ll stick to Laesch news.

As far as IL-14 goes, my prediction stands: Anyone who is relying on bored now for news and an evenhanded analysis of the race in IL-14 is going to be very, very surprised on February 5.

cross-posted on Fireside14, PrairieStateBlue, MyDD, DailyKos

this race isn’t generating as much coverage as the others, simply because it is turning out to be not much of a race.  the endorsement interview at the chicago tribune can be found here:

if you watch this video, which was ended abruptly where others were extended, the interviewer asks jay footlik the question that is on everyone’s mind: why are you running, and “risk the possibility of perhaps splitting sensibilities among democrats when he (seals) came so close last time?”  it’s the question on many democrat’s minds in the tenth.

mark kirk’s supporters would like this to be more of a race.  i suspect footlik’s supporters would, too.  but we’re just not hearing it on the ground.  footlik’s name recognition still seems to be problematic, and it doesn’t appear that dan seals will have to spend as much money to beat footlik as i’d wager they planned to spend.

the tribune covered the session of the video above, noting:

The two Democrats seeking to unseat U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) from his North Shore seat clashed on the Middle East and where they live Tuesday in their first meeting of the campaign season.

Former White House adviser Jay Footlik criticized Democratic primary opponent Dan Seals for saying during his previous congressional run that he would support “peace” in a conflict between Iran and Israel.

[…]

Footlik, who runs a homeland security consulting business, said he currently resides in Buffalo Grove.

Seals then got Footlik to admit he’s only renting a house in the district.

footlik, who likes to tell his audience that he started his career as “the cute kid,” played it cute about the residency issue:

Jay Footlik, a Democratic candidate for Congress in the North Suburban 10th District, sent out a map this week showing four houses for sale in the district under $400,000 in case his opponent in the Democratic primary, Dan Seals, wants to buy one.

this stunt would have been more cute if footlik’s wife hadn’t told people they were planning on buying a house in the 10th congressional district.  it makes you wonder if the kirk campaign has an office pool for when footlik returns to his home within the beltway.

the daily herald also wrote about their endorsement session:

Democratic congressional candidate Dan Seals says lobbyists can’t change Washington, but opponent Jay Footlik says that neither can neophytes.

“I’ve already delivered real results,” Footlik argued, referring to his work as a security consultant, Middle East policy adviser and lobbyist for foreign interests. “I have been involved in trying to find solutions.”

But business consultant Seals argues Footlik doesn’t have the kind of experience voters want.

“If you are going to deliver change, I don’t think you can do that as a lobbyist,” said the Wilmette resident.

this has been a busy week for the two campaigns in the 10th.  three debates were scheduled, one remaining for tomorrow night (lwv forum at the arlington heights library).  several papers covered last night’s exchange.  in a spirited exchange of the two candidates, they went deep into local issues.  on transportation issues, seals wants to utilize the lake to its fullest extent as a transportation system while footlik supports expanding o’hare and getting the municipalities to cooperate on roads.  on the environment, seals thinks the lake is our greatest resource and must be protected.  he used the recent bp amoco fiasco as just one example.  footlik agrees that while kirk makes a appearance about bp, he’s done nothing.  seals also noted that he would be willing to sign on for more punitive action against those companies that discriminate.  

both candidates were asked what 2 committees and what 2 pieces of legislation would you like.  seals said he wants to sit on the education and armed forces committees and would sponsor troops returning in a year.  footlik said he wants to sit on the transportation and foreign affairs committees.  press coverage of the debate had one write:

Seals, a business consultant at Northwestern University said he is running to change Washington, D.C.

“We need to change healthcare, the war in Iraq, the deficit and business overall in Washington,” said Seals.

Seals said he believes the government is putting freedom at odds with security when it comes to electronic surveillance and other methods used by Homeland Security.

“Wire tapping, the eavesdropping, and the torture our troops are putting on some of the prisoners are just some examples that are having an opposite effect on security,” Seals said. “We need to focus on police work and good intelligence by addressing border issues and reading security checks.”

Footlik said the country needs to reach out to the Muslim world and communicate in a more effective way.

“There are great solutions for anti-terrorism laws, but it starts with first responders like police and fire back home,” said Footlik.

Back home, Seals believes Congress should pass the Children’s Health and Medicare Protection Act, because children “deserve our care,” he said.

there were other stories about the endorsements the two are getting.  the news sun notes that footlik got the endorsement of the lake county federation of teachers while seals won the endorsement of the IFT’s northwest suburban teachers union.  the tribune wrote about the switch to footlik, while the pioneer press said that “Jay Footlik believes his campaign is gaining momentum with the endorsement of two major teachers’ unions.”

otoh, one of footlik’s mailers got a different reaction than his campaign probably wanted.  Footlik mailing draws fire was a headline in the winnetka talk:

The Footlik campaign says the ad was meant to talk about his faith in a humorous way, and the work he has done on issues important to the Jewish community and in promoting Middle East peace.

But others did not find the mailing so funny.

“I was just offended by the fact that whole piece had nothing to do with the issues,” said Buffalo Grove resident Jon Altenberg, who is Jewish. “The whole piece is based on the fact he’s Jewish. I’m Jewish, and I don’t think the fact that someone’s Jewish should have any relevance on whether he gets my vote or not.”

In a Letter to the Editor, Altenberg said the mailing “uses Jewish stereotypes and slang to try to insinuate that Jay Footlik is the only candidate to vote for simply because he has a Jewish surname.”

“If anybody who was not Jewish used the same terms, I think it would be seen as offensive,” he said.

Altenberg said he’s talked to neighbors who are not Jewish and they indicated they had not received the mailing.

sun times columnist neil steinberg called the mailer pandering to the northshore’s jewish voters.  it appears, though, that reaction to the mailer broke on generational lines, with older jewish voters finding it as humorous as it was intended.

in the ‘what’s new’ department, the seals campaign reports:

A recent poll by Garin-Hart-Yang Research showed Dan leading his primary opponent 58-10

the campaign also notes that “Dan was endorsed by the Pioneer Press on Thursday, January 10.”  seals has won the “endorsement race,” posting new endorsements by

* AFL-CIO

* Asian American Action Fund of Greater Chicago

* Communications Workers of America

* International Association of Machinists

* International Brotherhood of Boilermakers

* Illinois Federation of Teachers- Northwest Suburban Teachers Union Local 1211

* Independent Voters of Illinois-IPO

* International Longshoreman’s Association

* Sheet Metal Workers International Association

* United Auto Workers

* United Food and Commercial Workers

* United Transportation Union

footlik got some good blog support from the teacher’s union endorsement.  his home town bulletin board had a nice appeal:

Niles North alumnus Jay Footlik is running for Congress. Those of us who are Skokie residents, including Jay’s mom, can’t vote for him, because we living in the 9th congressional district. This doesn’t mean we can’t help.

a volunteer from miami university had a really sweet post about her experience helping on footlik’s campaign and what it means.  otoh, local blogstar, ellen gill asked fellow voters if they had received on the calls talked about in that volunteer’s post.

supporters of dan seals put up a considerable amount of video in the last month.  one of these week’s debate had two questions posted, one on alternative energy and another on who’s his political role model.  seals’ wilmette coffee in december was also posted, part one is here, part two is here and the final segment is here.  the seals campaign has this video, Get to Know Dan!  and video from the yearlykos future leader’s forum, where seals was a panelist, is now online.  

there’s a lot of stuff coming up.  jay footlik now has an events section on his website, although the calendar doesn’t seem to be for the general public (there’s no address listed for each item).  the seals campaign continues to update it’s calendar page.  and the league of women voters debate is tomorrow at the arlington heights library.

seals’ financial picture continues to get brighter.  his actblue page shows he’s raised $258,784 from 1,093 donors across actblue.  footlik still hasn’t raised a dime on actblue.  full fund-raising numbers aren’t due in illinois until after the 16th.

footlik’s prospects don’t look that good.  it’s not just the poll numbers; voters still don’t know who footlik is, and when they do, they wonder — just like the tribune interviewer — why he’s running.  otoh, footlik’s challenge has forced the seals’ campaign to organize earlier, and knock on more doors than they probably would have otherwise.  as seals turns his attention to unifying democrats in the 10th around his candidacy, and then a more potent challenge against mark kirk, he continues to be a down to earth, charismatic agent for change.