Month: March 2008

Downballot rocks!

Here’s some good news: It looks like Dan Maffei has effectively clinched the Democratic nomination to contest the open seat of retiring GOP Rep. Jim Walsh.  The affable and progressive Maffei, who barely lost against the entrenched Walsh in 2006, quickly earned the support of the DCCC and most of the state’s House delegation after Walsh announced his surprise decision.

It looks like that support paid dividends for Maffei today, as his potential primary opponent, Syracuse Mayor Matt Driscoll, announced that he won’t pursue the nomination after several weeks of consideration.  

Maffei is looking strong to bring this D+3.4 seat into the blue column.

(H/T: House Race Hotline)

The NRCC just put out a memo that allegedly details its top two dozen Dem targets (sub. only):

District	Representative
AZ-05	Mitchell
AZ-08	Giffords
CA-11	McNerney
CT-05	Murphy
FL-16	Mahoney
GA-08	Marshall
IL-08	Bean
IN-09	Hill
KS-02	Boyda
KS-03	Moore
KY-03	Yarmuth
MN-01	Walz
NH-01	Shea-Porter
NH-02	Hodes
NY-20	Gillibrand
NY-24	Arcuri
OR-05	OPEN (Hooley)
PA-04	Altmire
PA-08	Murphy
PA-10	Carney
PA-11	Kanjorski
TX-22	Lampson
TX-23	Rodriguez
WI-08	Kagen

There are a lot of names that are NOT on here – names which the GOP has talked a lot of smack about in the past, like John Hall up in NY-19, or Zack Space in OH-18. Even some of the targets that are on here are no longer looking so great. For instance, Republican moneybags “Quico” Canseco just got his ass whooped in the TX-23 GOP primary. And in OR-05, you’ve got a primary showdown between corrupt loser Kevin Mannix and Mike Erickson, who I’m told is an even bigger freakshow.

Plus, you’ve got the FBI investigating the theft of hundreds of thousands of dollars from the NRCC. It’s never been a better time to be a Republican.

The Buckeye State is going to provide the purest test of the “coattails” of the eventual Democratic  candidate for President. We elected our new Governor in 2006 and don’t have a U.S. Senate race until 2010. So this time, the ballot goes from President to U.S. House seats.

And, again, it’s all about Ohio.

Repeat after me kids: “No Republican can get to the White House unless they win Ohio.” I think that putting the Sick Days Initiative on the ballot is a master stroke. The polling numbers for this proposal are absolutely Off. The. Hook. Just as the disgusting Hate Amendment (anti-gay marriage) brought in enough evangelicals to reelect the Shrub in 2004, the Minimum Wage initiative helped a blue tide to sweep Ohio in 2006.

Our current U.S. House delegation is 11 GOP to 7 Democrats (gotta loves them Gerrymandering!) But we have the very real chance to flip three or maybe even FOUR seats. I don’t know if any other state right now with the meaningful chance to make such a HUGE reversal in their Congresscritters.

I thoroughly expect victories from:

OH-01 (Steve Dreihaus)

OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy

OH-16 State Senator and USAF Major John Boccieri

and MAYBE

OH-14 Judge (and pediatrics emergency room nurse) Bill O’Neill

Other seats will be entertaining as well. For example, who doesn’t look forward to what fresh hell Mean Jean Schmidt (OH-02) can bring down on herself and her GOP collaborators?

Here’s the big question:

What other state has a realistic chance to flip control of their state’s U.S. House delegation and to do so by such a large percentage of the seats in the state?

My sense is that we have seen little of the so called “Bradley effect” or “Wilder Effect” in the primaries, but I suspect that it will be much, much worse in the run up to the general election as the right wing smear machine pounds away at their target demographics, including lower income, lower education, white, male “NASCAR dads” (and moms.)

As I keep repeating, Democratic candidates MUST be really disciplined and stick to the “kitchen table” issues come heck or high water. Pocketbook truth trumps delusional scare tactics. They may have fear and bigotry on their side but we have reality.

This week, I came across the saying “Before you try to tell someone how much know, show them how much you care.” I think that sums up what every political candidate should do when trying to connect with voters.

Early last week, I spoke with a family in DuBois about my campaign and what they felt was the biggest problem they are facing. Without hesitation, the mother said “Mark, the rising cost of gas and heating oil is making it tough on my family.”. Another person told me when we talked about the stimulus checks that Washington will be sending out “I hope I get mine soon, I need another tank of oil to get through the cold months.”.

When you hear these two stories, do you think Washington cares and understands? Members of Congress touted when the stimulus package was passed “we’re giving back money to the people so they can go out and buy something”. The reality is that many people will use the funds to pay off existing debt or buy basic necessities. And, if everyone in Washington would be honest, the stimulus package was the incumbent members of Congress sending you a check in an election year so you’ll remember them in November.

ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:

I am encouraged to hear from people that they are concerned about the issues I’m talking about. People are telling me they are tired of the federal government spending beyond its means and running up debt that our children and grandchildren will have to pay for. Regardless of political affiliation, citizens in the 5th district want fiscal responsibility. I am also hearing that people want a congressman who knows north central Pennsylvania and will deal with the problems of the region.

$350,000 SPENT IN 29 DAYS!!!!

The Centre Daily Times reported today that one of the Republican candidates has spent $350,000 in just 29 days of the campaign. That amounts to $12,068.96 dollars per day. Let’s put this into perspective, a person working at the current federal minimum wage of $5.85 per hour x 40 hours a week x 52 weeks in a year = $12,168 before taxes. Is this the type of person you want for your next congressman?

ENDORSEMENTS:

Our campaign was proud to announce the following endorsements during this past week: Keith Bierly former 4 term Centre County Commissioner, Mike Savage Rush Township Supervisor (Centre County), Jeff Pisarcik current second term Jefferson County Commissioner and Raymond Snyder former Mifflin County Commissioner.

FUNDRAISING:

The McCracken for Congress committee is planning a fundraising dinner in DuBois on Wednesday, March 19th. If you are interested in attending and have not received an invitation, provide your mailing address via email to mccrackenforcongress@verizon.net. Also, please tell your friends about our campaign and encourage them to visit our webpage http://www.mccrackenforcongres… where they can find a link to contribute to the campaign online via ActBlue.

QUESTIONS:

We welcome all questions from the progressive blogosphere.  We feel we are in tune with the expectations of what kind of Congressman we need.  Mark has the experience and desire to answer questions from 5th District residents and interested parties.

A FINAL WORD OF THANKS:

I want to thank everyone who sent along condolences on the passing of my father Blair McCracken. He was a lifelong, working man’s Democrat who fought for his country in World War II and was always a big part of my political campaigns. When I spoke with him in January and asked his advice about running for Congress, he paused for a few seconds, pointed his finger at me and said “whatever you do, if you get to Washington, don’t let them change you.”. That was the last advice he gave me and I won’t forget it.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

Someone shot this video with a cellphone on Feb. 1 when WV-02 Democratic candidate Anne Barth made her Eastern Panhandle announcement in Martinsburg and just posted it on YouTube. This is great to see and I hope the campaign uses YouTube a lot because Barth is a great candidate.

Here’s Clem’s post from this same Feb. 1 event.

I spoke to a union guy last week at the gym, who saw her at this event and at her speech before the West Virginia AFL-CIO. He thought Barth was wonderful here, just after she filed, and he raved about how polished she has become in such a short time.

Those who saw rightwing Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito’s speech at the Rotary Club recently reported she could barely string sentences together and seemed to know little of current events in the state or of issues pending in Congress. It will be great fun watching these two clash in a debate.

More on Anne Barth here.  

OR-5 is one of the most vulnerable Democratic-held seats this cycle, as the current Democratic incumbent Darlene Hooley has decided to resign. Rep. Hooley won this swing-district, which actually has a Republican registration plurality, by typically about 10% based on her moderate voting record, and as an open seat it is being hotly contested in the Republican primary.

For more background, see my previous diary on this topic: http://www.dailykos.com/…

Today, the strongest and most well-known Republican candidate, Kevin Mannix, made his official declaration, setting off what will likely be a bloody primary on the Repubilcan side.

Update: The MSM is finally starting to report this: blog.oregonlive.com/politics/2008/03/mannix_makes_it_official_hes_r.html

as is the most prominent Oregon political blog:

www.blueoregon.com/2008/03/the-trouble-wit.html

www.blueoregon.com/2008/03/mannix-running.html

Presently, the only site mentioning this is a right-wing blog that I won’t link, especially as they don’t provide any substantive information or links, but Kevin Mannix had already announced his intention to announce “something” this morning, and it was widely anticipated that he would run, so this hardly breaking news.

However, it is worth knowing that Kevin Mannix previously represented parts of this rural/suburban/urban mixed district as a state legislator, and has run (and lost) for statewide office FOUR times previously (AGx2, Governorx2), so he has wide name recognition and conservative credentials, especially as the former head of the Oregon GOP. He will be a very strong candidate in the primary and general election.

The other declared Republican candidate, Mike Erickson, is an independently wealthy businessman who mainly self-financed a losing effort against Darlene Hooley last time, losing 54-43 in 2006. He is generally considered a fairly bland candidate without prior experience in government or elected office who has not articulated specific policy positions. This is in strong contrast to Kevin Mannix, who has made a small fortune in the past few years by pushing multiple ballot measures onto the ballot, and has a vast electoral experience of staking out conservative stances on issues.

One tidbit from the right-wing website was that Mannix apparently has a 37% edge in a head-to-head poll against Erickson, so he’s going to have to pile in a ton of his cash to make that up.

Personally, I think this contest will be a tough hold for the Democrats this fall, but it is possible. The most prominent Democrat candidate (of two), Kurt Schrader, is a pretty good candidate as a State Senator who  has a good background on rural and suburban issues, and though he is more conservative than I would like, he may be a wash for Darlene votewise. For the sake of completeness, another Democrat, Steve Marks, former chief-of-staff to popular former Democratic governor John Kitzhaber, has also recently declared for this seat. He is suspected to be more progressive than Schrader, but with a far lower name recognition and a lack of an established constituency.

http://www.blueoregon.com/…

Finally, I’d like to see how the left-wing perspective on a contested primary here for the Republicans compares with what we feel about the contested primary for the Democratic presidential nomination, i.e. can a contested primary be “bad” for them in this district, but “good” for the Democrats? or are they both “bad” or “good”?

Cross-posted at dailykos:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

This was on the front page at dailykos this morning:

IL-14: Foster up 7, according to SUSA

Subscription-only Roll Call has a story up today with breaking news: Democrat Bill Foster leads Republican Jim Oberweis, 52% to 45%, in the race for Dennis Hastert’s old seat in Illinois’ 14th District.

Rollcall:

The House seat recently vacated by former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) is in danger of flipping to the Democrats in Saturday’s special election, according to a poll conducted this week for Roll Call.

In the poll of 517 likely special election voters, conducted by Survey USA exclusively for Roll Call on March 3 and 4, physicist Bill Foster (D) led dairy company executive Jim Oberweis (R) 52 percent to 45 percent. The poll had a 4.4-point margin of error.

Foster appeared to test particularly well with women and independent voters, who preferred him by a 3-2 margin. The survey also suggested Foster had locked down his party’s base, taking 97 percent of likely Democratic votes and perhaps stealing 10 percent of likely GOP votes.

There’s other good stuff in the dkos story, too (and some interesting comments as well)

============

Remember that IL-14 District is PVI R+5.

Remember that IL-14 is Speaker Hastert’s old district.  What a prize this would be for Democrats.

Remember the famous phrase: “Do you believe in miracles?”

Remember the Blue Majority ActBlue page

Here at Ryan for Kentucky, our campaign is gathering steam. We believe in the fight for Democratic vision and want to fight for our ideals in the Congress. With this in mind, Heather Ryan has addressed some new issues that are important to Kentucky, and our nation. She is ready to fight for working Americans against the special interests.

First, as stated before at Ryan for Kentucky we believe Alternative Energy is the future of Kentucky, and her surrounding states. We can use our rural areas to end our dependence on foreign oil. With research and innovation we can easily end up growing and refining the fuels of the future right here in Kentucky. Imagine the high-paying jobs that could be created here and the shut down factories that could be re-opened in this exciting new field!!

To make true progress in this field, we simply must defeat Exxon Ed Whitfield this fall. Whitfield sits on the Energy commission and has done nothing to stop soaring gas prices that pinch our families and take more and more of their savings. Of course, the fact that Ed Whitfield owns a lot of Exxon and Chevron stock means he will never lead the way towards making America Energy independent. He is actually profiting from keeping America beholden to foreign oil:

Chevron Corp  $100,001 to $250,000  

Exxon Mobil  $100,001 to $250,000

Worse yet, Exxon Eddie votes his stock options against renewable energy despite the promise it holds for the citizens of Kentucky’s First District and indeed the nation:

http://www.votesmart.org/issue…

Yes, Exxon Ed Whitfield votes against economic incentives to increase renewable energy because he cannot bear the thought of his precious Exxon and Chevron stock being de-valued, despite the promise renewable energy holds for his constituents, and this nation.

Well, here at Ryan for Kentucky, we don’t own any stock in Big Oil. We own stock in the people of Kentucky’s First District and they are who we are beholden to. With that in mind, Heather Ryan believes that we simply must invest in researching the fuels of the future and the promise that they hold for our state and indeed the whole nation. Here is Heather’s newly released take on Renewable Energy:

We need to double the budget for the Dept. of Energy to research in renewable energy and increase efficiency. We should help businesses that are bringing new energy solutions to the marketplace at an accelerated pace. We should mandate the use of safe renewable energy sources that hold promise for Kentucky such as solar, wind and biomass and require them to produce 25% of our energy needs by the year 2025. We should require that Oil Companies make biofuels available at their pumps and that all new cars after 2010 be flex-fuel and be compatible with gasoline or biofuel. We must develop new ways to produce and use ethanol and cellulistic ethanol and offer incentives to new refineries for the fuels of the future. Last, we should make permanent the expiring tax credits for the production of renewable energy and repeal tax credits for dirty energy producers who have made record profits at the expense of the American citizen.

We simply cannot afford to ignore the promise of the fuels of the future any longer. While Exxon Ed Whitfield and his ilk are profiting handsomely from our dependence on foreign oil, the citizens of Kentucky and our nation are feeling the pinch of their profits. Heather Ryan will fight tooth and nail in the Congress to insure that the promise the fuels of the future hold for all of us is not cast aside any longer. With American ingenuity and investment we can become energy independent. It just calls for us to be patriotic about something besides war.

Our tax code is another area where Heather Ryan wants to fight for working Americans over the rich and powerful. The last eight years working Americans have watched in horror as they foot more and more of the tax bill, and the very wealthy have seen their taxes cut. It is past time we restored fairness to our tax code and gave middle and lower class families the tax relief they so desperately need. Here are Heather’s newly released ideas on doing just that:

We need to rewrite our tax code. Our tax code should be more simple and fair. We need to ensure that the tax code rewards American workers and not just the wealthy. To do this we should triple the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) for single adults and cut the marriage penalty. We should also at least double the Child and Dependent Care Credit making it up to $2500 per child. Also, we need to restore a fair investment income tax rate so that the wealthy don’t pay less taxes on investments than workers pay on income. Additionally, we need to repeal the Bush tax credits for the rich which gives tax breaks to those who make over $200,000 a year. Finally, we need to close loopholes that allow the wealthy to pay just 15% of taxes on their huge incomes while American working families often pay twice as much.

As you can see, Heather shares our values of fairness and progress and would fight for us in the Congress. She would give Kentucky’s First District a Congresswoman they could be proud of. Since she is invested in the well-being of her constituents they would be her special interest group, not Big Oil.

We are determined to fight for the progress of all Americans, not just the wealthy few. Exxon Ed Whitfield has a million dollars of special interest money the status-quo has invested in him to make sure that he will continue to impede progress for all Americans and protect his stock options and the record profits of Big Oil reaped on the backs of hard working Americans. If we are to defeat Exxon Eddie and the powerful special interests he represents we simply must have your help. Lets show Exxon Eddie and his mentor, Mitch McConnell that they can no longer impede progress on the backs of working Americans. Please go here and make an investment in expanding our Congressional majorities and help out a grassroots Democrat that will fight tooth and nail to represent our interests in the Congress:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

We can and will defeat Exxon Eddie in the fall with your help. We have no primary and any support we recieve will be put to work immediately to defeat a sitting Republican Congressman.

Until next time, best wishes fellow Democrats!!

 

(I figured this was big enough news to promote, and, since David Kowalski laid out the details, I saw no point in writing a separate post that repeated the same information. – promoted by The Caped Composer)

Anne Estabrook, a multi-millionaire developer and the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for the US Senate in New Jersey abruptly dropped out on Tuesday morning after suffering a mini stroke on Monday.  Estabrook had already contributed $1.6 million towards the Senate race and was considered the heavy favorite for the Republican nomination.

Her departure leaves two active Republican candidates, inflammatory state senator Joe Pennachio and college professor/gadfly Murray Sabin (Sabrin?).  There may be pressure from the state’s GOP establishment to come up with a name opponent at this point.  Just my own speculation but in relative order candidates might include former Governor Christie Todd Whittman, the state’s US Attorney Chris Christie (good to see him sent packing), retiring US Rep Mike Ferguson, former Senate candidate Tom Keane, Jr. or even one of the south Jersey Reps like Chris Smith or Frank LoBiondo.

Christie has gone from prosecuting all politicians to picking only on Democrats to save his job from Karl Rove’s threatened sacking.  I’d love to see Lautenberg puncture his pompousity like a pus-filled pinata.  If Jerseyans have poor opinions of their politicians, Chrisitie is a leading contributor. (So are some of the talk radio stations in the state and the vicious tone of the political blog at the Star Ledger.  Republicans have no answers but in this state they are nasty, personal, and bullying.)