Month: March 2008

U.S. Senate candidate Jeff Merkley is challenging Republican Gordon Smith for the U.S. Senate in Oregon.

Merkley released a new web vid yesterday about the incredible progressives unifying with the campaign!

Check it out…

Carla–Netroots Outreach, Jeff Merkley for U.S. Senate

continuing through the alphabet

NY has 29 representatives: 23 Democrats and 6 Republicans (5 of whom are on the DCCC list

Filing deadline is July 17, primary is Sept 9

District: NY-01

Location Eastern Long Island

Representative Tim Bishop (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 56-44

Bush margin 2004 2,000 votes out of 300,000

Notes on opponents In 2004, William Manger raised $1.3 million to Bishop’s $1.9 million; in 2006, Italo Zinzi raised $300K to Bishop’s $1.1 million

Current opponents Lee Zeldin

Demographics 32nd highest income (median = $62K),

Assessment Safe

District: NY-02

Location Central Long Island

Representative  Steve Israel (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 45-53

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 11th highest income (median = $71K)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-03

Location More of central Long Island, especially the south shore

Representative Peter King (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 56-44

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 52-47

Notes on opponents In 2004, Blair Mathies raised $200K to King’s $500K; in 2006, David Meijas raised $900K to King’s $2 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 12th highest income (median = $71K), 84th fewest Blacks (2.1%)

Assessment On the DCCC list , but we need a candidate!

District: NY-04

Location Western part of southern Long Island (i.e. close to NYC)

Representative Carolyn McCarthy (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Notes on opponents In 2004, James Garner raised $300K to McCarthy’s $1.7 million.  In 2006, Martin Blessinger raised $100K to McCarthy’s $1.4 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 20th highest income (median = $67K)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-05

Location Northern part of western Long Island, and part of Queens

Representative Gary Ackerman (D)

First elected  1983

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 71-28

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 22nd fewest veterans (6.7%), 7th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (mostly Asians, who are 24.5% of the population)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-06

Location Southeastern part of Queens, NYC

Representative Gregory Meeks (D)

First elected 1998  

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 15-84

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 17th fewest veterans (6.2%), 5th fewest Whites (12.8%), 12th most Blacks (52.1%), 26th most  most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (including 6.1% multiracial), 6th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-07

Location Some of Queens, some of Bronx, NYC

Representative Joseph Crowley (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 84-16

2004 margin 81-19

Bush margin 2004 25-74

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 19th fewest veterans (6.4%), 38th fewest Whites (27.6%), 35th most Latinos (39.5%),  28th most  most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (12.8% Asian), 27th most Democratic (tie with NY08)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-08

Location West side of Manhattan, part of lower Manhattan, southern Brooklyn

Representative Jerrold Nadler (D)

First elected 1992

2006 margin 85-14

2004 margin 81-19

Bush margin 2004 27-72

Notes on opponents In 2004, Peter Hort raised $140K to Nadler’s $850K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 9th fewest veterans (5.1%), 38th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (11% Asian)

Assessment Safe.  

District: NY-09

Location Odd bits of Queens and Brooklyn, NYC

Representative Anthony Weiner (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 28th fewest veterans (7.1%), 25th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (14% Asian)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-10

Location A V shaped portion of Brooklyn, NYC

Representative Edolphus Towns (D)

First elected  1982

2006 margin 92-6  (! and his opponent was a Republican!)

2004 margin 91-7 (!)

Bush margin 2004 13-86

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared, although there is a primary challenger

Demographics 27th lowest income (median = $30K), 11th fewest veterans (5.3%), 8th fewest Whites (16.2%), 9th most Blacks (60.2%), 3rd most Democratic

Assessment You’re kidding, right? He might lose a primary, though

District: NY-11

Location Central Brooklyn, NYC

Representative Yvette Clarke (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 90-8

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 13-86

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 26th most in poverty (23.2%), 4th fewest veterans (4.1%), 25th fewest Whites (21.4%), 12th most Blacks (58.5%), 4th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-12

Location Bits of Queens, Manhattan and Brooklyn (this one won a ‘contest’ for most convoluted map of a district)

Representative Nydia Velazquez (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 90-10

2004 margin 86-14

Bush margin 2004 19-80

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 19th lowest income (median = $29K), 3rd fewest veterans (4.0%), 25th fewest Whites (23.3%), 24th most Latinos (48.5%), 18th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (15.9% Asian), 15th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-13

Location Staten Island and a bit of Brooklyn, NYC

Representative Vito Fosella (R)

First elected  1997

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 59-41

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Notes on opponents In 2004, Frank Barbaro raised $400K to Fosella’s $1.1 million; in 2006, Stephen Harrison raised $100K to Fosella’s $1.6 million

Current opponents Steve Harrison , who ran in 2006; Domenic Recchia.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment On the DCCC list . superribbie ranks this as the 34th most vulnerable Republican seat.  We can win this one!

District: NY-14

Location East side of Manhattan, and western Queens

Representative  Carolyn  Maloney (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 84-16

2004 margin 81-19

Bush margin 2004 24-74

Notes on opponents neither raised much

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 15th fewest veterans (6.0%)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-15

Location Mostly Harlem, NYC, but also bits of Queens

Representative Charles Rangel (D)

First elected 1970

2006 margin 94-6 (! against a Republican)

2004 margin 91-7

Bush margin 2004 9-90

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents  None declared

Demographics 12th lowest income (median = $28K), 3rd most in poverty (30.5%), 6th fewest veterans (4.6%), 9th fewest Whites (16.4%), 37th most Blacks (30.5%), 25th most Latinos (47.9%), tied for most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-16

Location South Bronx, NYC

Representative Jose Serrano (D)

First elected  1990

2006 margin 95-5 (!)

2004 margin 95-5 (!)

Bush margin 2004 10-89

Notes on opponents The same guy ran twice, with no money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Lowest income in the USA (median = $19K), most in poverty (42.2%), 2nd fewest veterans (3.9%), fewest Whites (2.9%), 45th most Blacks (30.3%), 15th most Latinos (62.8%), tied for most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-17

Location Northern  Bronx, a bit of Westchester, but mostly Rockland county, the part of NY on the west side of the Hudson

Representative Elliot Engel (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 76-24

2004 margin 76-22

Bush margin 2004 33-67

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents  None declared

Demographics 44th most Blacks (30.4%)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-18

Location Southern Westchester (just north of NYC)

Representative Nita Lowey (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 70-30

Bush margin 2004 42-58

Notes on opponents Richard Hoffman ran in 2004 and 2006, and raised less than $100K each time; Lowey raised about $1.5 million each time

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 19th highest income (median = $69K).

Assessment  Safe

District: NY-19

Location Northern suburbs and exurbs of NYC, bordering on NJ, a little of PA, and CT

Representative  John Hall (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Hall ousted Sue Kelly, with $1.6 million to her $2.5 million

Current opponents Kieran Lalor

Demographics 24th highest income (median = $64K)

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. On the DCCC list , superribbie ranks this as the 15th most vulnerable Democratic seat.  However, Lalor looks like a nut job, so if there’s no better opponent….Several people have rule out running, see the WIKI

District: NY-20

Location Eastern part of northern NY, mostly around Albany

Representative Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 53-47

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents In 2006, Gillibrand ousted John Sweeney, raising $2.5 million to his $3.5 million

Current opponents Sandy Treadwell, Richard Wager, John Wallace, Michael Rocque, possibly John Sweeney

Demographics 38th most Whites (93.4%)

Assessment Vulnerable.  On the DCCC list , superribbie ranks this as the 8th most vulnerable Democratic seat.

District: NY-21

Location Albany, Troy, Schenectady and points west of there

Representative  Michael McNulty (D) retiring

First elected  1988

2006 margin 72-20

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 43-55

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents The Democrat is Tracey Brooks ; (others, too, please see the Wiki page, which I just updated) no declared Republican

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment On the DCCC list , superribbie ranks this as the 41st most vulnerable Democratic seat. On the other hand, if no Republicans run, it’s safe

District: NY-22

Location If you picture where NY bends to the west, you’ll have the 22nd. Borders PA, includes Poughkeepsie (NYC exurb) in the east and Binghamton and Ithaca in the west

Representative Maurice Hinchey (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 45-54

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents  George Phillips, Bruce Layman

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: NY-23

Location Northernmost NY, bordering Canada and VT

Representative John McHugh (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 51-47

Notes on opponents In 2006, Robert Johnson raised $160K to McHugh’s $750K

Current opponents Mike Oot

Demographics  8th most rural (65.3%),

Assessment Long shot

District: NY-24

Location Rome, Utica, and Geneva, near Lake Ontario

Representative Michael Arcuri (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 54-45

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Notes on opponents In 2006, this was an open seat; Arcuri raised $2 million and his opponent $1.5 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Slightly vulnerable. On the DCCC list ; superribbie ranks this as the 38th most vulnerable Democratic seat. Of course, with no opponent, it’s safe

District: NY-25

Location From Lake Ontario east to Syracuse

Representative  Jim Walsh (R) retiring

First elected  1988

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin Unopposed by Democrats

Bush margin 2004 48-50

Notes on opponents In 2006, Dan Maffei raised $900K to $1.8 million for Walsh

Current opponents Dan Maffei is the Democrat, no announced Republicans

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Highly vulnerable.  On the DCCC list . superribbie ranks this as the second most vulnerable Republican seat. And, if no one runs….it’s a gimmee!

District: NY-26

Location Just south of Lake Ontario, east of Lake Erie

Representative  Tom Reynolds retiring

First elected  1998

2006 margin 52-48

2004 margin 56-44

Bush margin 2004 55-43

Notes on opponents Jack Davis ran in 2004 and 2006. In 2006, he raised $2.4 million to Reynolds’ $5 million; in 2004, $1.4 million to $2.5 million

Current opponents Democrats: Jon Powers

Alice Kryzan .  Reynolds just announced his retirement, and Davis is considering running again, as well

Demographics 55th most Whites (92.3%)

Assessment On the DCCC list ; superribbie ranks this as the 27th most vulnerable Republican seat

District: NY-27

Location South and east of Lake Erie, including Buffalo

Representative Brian Higgins (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 79-21

2004 margin 51-49

Bush margin 2004 45-54

Notes on opponents In 2004, this was an open seat and Higgins beat Nancy Naples, each raising about $1.5 million.  In 2006, Michael McHale raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. On the DCCC list .  But, again, no opponent, so….

District: NY-28

Location The shores of Lake Ontario, a long, narrow strip

Representative Louise Slaughter (D)

First elected  1986

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 73-25

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 48th lowest income (median = $32K)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-29

Location Most of the part of NY that borders PA

Representative Randy Kuhl (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin 51-41

Bush margin 2004 56-42

Notes on opponents In 2006, Eric Massa raised about $1.5 million, as did Kuhl

Current opponents Eric Massa

Demographics 30th most Whites (92.5%), 51st fewest Latinos (1.4%)

Assessment Vulnerable. superribbie ranks this as the 14th most vulnerable Republican seat

Cross posted from 21stCenturyDems.org.

As I reflect on the Take Back America 2008 conference, I’m thrilled 21st Century Democrats was a partner organization at the event.  We are proud to stand with other great groups like Campaign for America’s Future, Progressive Majority, ACORN, People for the American Way, the Center for Progressive Leadership, and many others who are working hard to change the direction of this country from the disastrous policies of George W. Bush.

For me, one of the highlights of the conference was the roll out of “A Responsible Plan To End The War In Iraq” by Darcy Burner, Chellie Pingree and several other Congressional candidates. Darcy explained how a the Bush Administration’s top down approach to ending the war in Iraq has failed to stem the violence and that’s why she drafted the plan and organized fellow Congressional candidates to take a bottom’s up approach by putting forward a plan to end the war.

One of the most important points made during the rollout was the need to change the frame of the conversation about the war from whether the surge is working to what we should be doing to make our country safer.   To shift the conversation we need to get more people involved in this debate. We must talk to our neighbors, friends, family – and most importantly to the candidates where we live – and ask them to sign on to the responsible plan to end the war in Iraq.

We in the progressive community have asked for leadership on ending the war, and now have Darcy Burner, Chellie Pingree and several other candidates who have put themselves on the line by not only standing up against the war, but by providing a detailed plan of how the United States can bring our military engagement in Iraq to a responsible end and take steps to restore the checks and balances in our government to make sure we do not make the same mistake again in the future.

You can endorse the plan here. You can also show your support the candidates leading this effort by donating to Darcy Burner, Chellie Pingree or the slate of Congressional candidates who have signed onto the plan.

It may have taken a few months for it to shake out, but it looks like Louisiana Democrats finally have their candidate in the open seat race to replace retiring GOP Rep. Jim McCrery:

Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche formally announced on Wednesday that he will be a candidate for Louisiana’s 4th Congressional District seat this fall.

While this R+6.5 PVI open seat may not be at the top of the GOP’s list of worries this November, Carmouche’s candidacy will bring a real fight to the Republicans.  So sayeth CQ:

Carmouche’s decision contributed to CQ Politics’ change of its rating on the 4th District race to Leans Republican, a category for highly competitive races, from Safe Republican, a designation applied to contests that the GOP appears certain to win.

Carmouche is the longtime district attorney in Caddo Parish, which includes Shreveport, the population center for the 4th District and the third most-populous city in Louisiana. […]

Carmouche is not seeking re-election this year as district attorney, an office he has held since 1979. Democratic officials cite his long background in law enforcement and his conservative views on social issues, including his opposition to abortion and gun control measures, as among the reasons they think he will be able to overcome the district’s tilt toward the Republicans in presidential election years.

Not exactly the next John Yarmuth, but I’ll take what I can get in a district this red — as long as it gives the GOP some more heartburn.  The results from the May 3rd special election to fill Richard Baker’s seat in LA-06 (also R+6.5) could prove to be something of a bellwether here.

The Washington Post has picked up on our frustration with Debbie Wasserman Schultz:

Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) is getting brutally walloped in the liberal blogosphere for refusing to endorse the Democratic challengers to three potentially vulnerable GOP incumbents in Florida.

Liberal bloggers are irate that Wasserman Schultz, who co-chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Red-to-Blue program, has declined to endorse the Democrats running to unseat Cuban American Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Lincoln Diaz-Balart and his brother, Mario Diaz-Balart.

Wasserman Schultz says she doesn’t want to stab GOP members of her own delegation in the back. But liberal bloggers say she’s killing her own while aiding and abetting the enemy.

I should note, of course, that it’s not just the netroots who are up in arms over this – local Democratic leaders in South Florida are furious, too.

The DCCC’s executive director, however, totally dismisses the concerns of both groups:

Brian Wolff, executive director of the DCCC, says the bloggers are making “much ado about nothing,” noting that it’s “customary” for members to remain neutral in races involving GOP members of their respective congressional delegations.

It may be “customary,” but it’s dead wrong – and Rahm Emanuel fought tooth-and-nail against that decrepit, lazy philosophy. Once upon a time, even Debbie Wasserman Schultz herself did, too. It’s sad to see a proud, strong organization like the DCCC resign itself to tolerating this sort of absenteeism. I have to imagine Rahm’s heart aches to see this.

Debbie, for her part, accuses us of getting things wrong:

Defending herself against the attacks, Wasserman Schultz told us, “The blogosphere sometimes turns into a game of telephone.” She said the bloggers are missing a key point: “I have not endorsed any of the three incumbents, and I don’t support their reelection campaigns.”

Wasserman Schultz said she supports electing Democrats to Congress but that she has to “balance” her political role at the DCCC with her role as a member of the Florida delegation.

Of course, we never accused her of formally “endorsing” any Republican. We have, however, laid out a clear bill of particulars:

1) No Democrat should be permitted to recuse him or herself from campaigning on behalf of fellow Democrats – especially not the co-chair of the Red to Blue program.

2) No Democrat should gush to the press about how wonderful any particular Republican elected official is, especially not those targeted for defeat.

3) No Democratic party organization, the DCCC included, should tolerate either of the above two behaviors.

Debbie Wasserman Schultz is allegedly “frustrated” with us bloggers and wants us “off her back.” (I can only assume this applies to the unhappy local Dems in S. Fla., too.) But if she really cared what we think, she or a staffer could have easily reached out to the netroots. Wolff’s dismissive statement makes it pretty clear that we’re seen as just a minor nuisance.

So it’s time we made our voices heard. If you have a problem with the co-chair of the Red to Blue program saying she won’t campaign for our excellent Democratic candidates Annette Taddeo, Joe Garcia & Raul Martinez, please let her and the DCCC know about it. Whatever you say or write, I urge you to be firm but exceedingly polite. Our message is strong and true – we don’t need to cloud our cause by giving those in power an easy out to attack the messenger.

And what are we asking for? We want Debbie Wasserman Schultz to vocally endorse our South Florida trio and do everything she can to help them get elected (including hosting a fundraiser for each). If she won’t do that, then we’d like her to resign from Red to Blue. And we also want the DCCC to stop tolerating Members of Congress who want to “remain neutral” in contested races.

Debbie Wasserman Schultz (campaign office):

E-mail: AskDebbie@DWSforCongress.com

Phone: 202-741-7154

DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen (campaign office):

E-mail: chris@vanhollen.org

Phone: 301-942-3768

DCCC Headquarters:

Contact form

Phone: 202-863-1500

Please do not contact Congressional offices as this is purely a political issue. Just keep in mind what we’re fighting for, be polite, and let’s remind the folks in charge that our opinions matter.

From the Daily News:

GOP sources confirm that Rep. Tom Reynolds, a Western NY Congressman since 1999 and ex-NRCC chairman, will announce around noon tomorrow in Buffalo that he will not seek re-election this fall. Reynolds spokesman LD Platt did not return an e-mail seeking comment.

Reynolds of course was NRCC chair just last cycle, presiding over both the Mark Foley page scandal and his party committee’s fundraising scandal. His departure shoots this R+3.5 seat up the takeover charts, and the great news is that we already have an excellent candidate here in Iraq war vet Jon Powers. I’m even more excited about this race now.

P.S. Powers campaigned today with fellow Democrats Dan Maffei and Eric Massa in Rochester, raising the issue of how we care for our veterans. He blogged about it here.

P.P.S. (James Hell) I guess those earlier rumors that Reynolds shot down came true, after all.

The Washington Post’s “The Sleuth” column credited the ‘liberal blog” Swing State Project with raising the issue of Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s resistance to campaign for south Florida Democrats this afternoon (3/19).  In fact, the Post went further, crediting SSP’s nickname of “Debbie Dubya” for making the issue stick.  Kos’s support was mentioned as a sign that the issue had taken hold in the blogosphere.

Natch, the company town paper did say that it was customary for homestate congress critters to give their colleagues a break (known to us in the blogosphere as a free pass).

It certainly seems that this one hit pay dirt.  Go get ’em, Mr. Van Hollen.  The seat you take over will certainly be a Republican one.  Wonder why the same group didn’t howl about the mid-term redistricting of Tom DeLay in Texas, the failure to count votes in Florida in 2000, or the outrageous Republican gerrymanders in so many states.  They were rather sad, however, when moderate Republican Connie Morrella was replaced by upstart Democrat Chris Van Hollen.  Poor, poor moderates.

Continuing through the alphabet

NJ has 13 representatives: 7 Democrats and 6 Republicans

Filing deadline April 7, primary June 3

NM has 3 representatives: 2 Republicans and 1 Democrat

Filing deadline was Feb 12, primary is June 3

District: NJ-01

Location A T shaped district in southwestern NJ, bordering PA and a tiny bit of DE

Representative Robert Andrews (D) may retire to run for senate

First elected 1990

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 75-25

Bush margin 2004 39-61

Notes on opponents In 2004, Daniel Hutchison raised $200K to Andrews $800K

Current opponents No declared Republicans

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe for Democrats

District: NJ-02

Location Southernmost NJ, on the Delaware Bay and Atlantic

Representative Frank LoBiondo (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 65-33

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Notes on opponents neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: NJ-03

Location The southernmost of several CDs that stretch east-west across NJ, this one from the Atlantic to PA.

Representative Jim Saxton (R) retiring

First elected  1984

2006 margin 58-41

2004 margin 63-35

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Notes on opponents In 2006, Rich Sexton raised $161K to Saxton’s $1.3 million

Current opponents John Adler

Demographics 20th fewest in poverty (5.1%)

Assessment Vulnerable.  With Saxton out, this swing district is prime pickup territory.  It’s on the DCCC list , and superribbie ranks it the most vulnerable seat.

District: NJ-04

Location Another east west strip, more or less in the middle of the state, including Trenton.  Bordering PA and the Atlantic

Representative Christopher Smith (R)

First elected  1980

2006 margin 66-33

2004 margin 67-32

Bush margin 2004 56-44

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Josh Zeitz

Demographics 63rd highest income (median = $54K)

Assessment Slightly vulnerable superribbie ranks this 77 of all Republican seats

District: NJ-05

Location Northernmost NJ, bordering PA and NY, including NYC suburbs

Representative Scott Garrett (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 55-44

2004 margin 58-41

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents Each raised about $500K, Garrett about $1 million in each

Current opponents Dennis Shulman and

Camille Abate

Demographics 6th highest income (median = $73K), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%)

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. superribbie ranks this 55th of all Republican seats.  Garrett’s winning percentage is shrinking, he did no better than Bush in 04, and that won’t be enough in ’08.

District: NJ-06

Location A strange, thready district, running from a NYC suburb (Plainfield) south and east to Long Beach and then south to Asbury Park

Representative Frank Pallone (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin 69-30

2004 margin 67-31

Bush margin 2004 43-57

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 67th highest income (median = $56K)

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-07

Location Another strange shape, running east west, but shaped like the Greek letter ?.

Representative Michael Ferguson (R) retiring

First elected  2000

2006 margin 49-48

2004 margin 57-42

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Notes on opponents In 2006, Linda Stender raised $1.9 million to Ferguson’s $3 million; in 2004, Steve Brozak raised $800K to Ferguson’s $2.8 million

Current opponents Linda Stender is running again, as is Upendra Chivakula and a few Republicans

Demographics 4th wealthiest (median income = $75K)

Assessment Vulnerable. superribbie ranks this 8th of all Republican seats, and it’s on the DCCC list .  This is a competitive race near NYC, so all you NYC kossacks with time on your hands… this is a spot (but don’t ignore our own Vito Fosella, NY-13). Prime pickup material – Stender almost beat a fairly moderate Republican incumbent.  

District: NJ-08

Location More NYC suburbs, including Wayne, Patterson, and West Orange

Representative Bill Pascrell (D)

First elected   1996

2006 margin 71-28

2004 margin 69-29

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Notes on opponents In 2006, Jose Sandoval raised $200K to Pascrell’s $1 million; in 2004, George Aijan raised $100K to Pascrell’s $900K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 41st fewest veterans 8.3%)

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-09

Location Close NYC suburbs

Representative Steve Rothman (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 71-28

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 48th fewest veterans (8.6%)

Assessment safe

District: NJ-10

Location Newark, and some NYC suburbs

Representative Donald Payne (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin No major party opposition

Bush margin 2004 18-82

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 25th fewest Whites (56.4%), 16th most Blacks (21.4%), 15th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-11

Location Central northern NJ, including Dover

Representative Rodney Freylinghuysen (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 62-37

2004 margin 68-31

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Tom Wyka , who lost in 2006

Demographics 2nd highest income (median = $79K)

Assessment Long shot

District: NJ-12

Location Another east west strip, from north of Trenton (on the PA border) to NYC suburbs in the east, and almost to the Atlantic

Representative Rush Holt (D)

First elected 1998

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 59-40

Bush margin 2004 46-54

Notes on opponents In 2004, Bill Spadea raised $350K to Holt’s $1.6 million.  In 2006, Joseph Sinagra raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 15th highest median income ($70K)

Assessment Almost totally safe

District: NJ-13

Location Yet another strange shaped district, this one runs north-south along the Hudson River and the Atlantic, with a gap

Representative Albio Sires (D)

First elected  2006 (special election to replace Menendez, who became Senator)

2006 margin 78-19 (regular election)

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 31-69

Notes on opponents None raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 12th fewest veterans (5.4%), 51st fewest Whites (32.3%), 26th most Latinos (47.6%), 27th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NM-01

Location Albuquerque and suburbs, and some desert

Representative Heather Wilson (R) probably retiring to run for Senate

First elected  1998

2006 margin 861 votes out of 211,000

2004 margin 54-46

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Notes on opponents In 2004, Richard Romero raised $2 million to Wilson’s $3.4 million; in 2006, Patricia Madrid raised $3.3 million to Wilson’s $5 million

Current opponents Martin Heinrich ; Rebecca Vigil-Giron ; Jessica Wolfe ; Robert Pidcock are the Democrats

Demographics 86th fewest Whites (48.5%),  92nd fewest Blacks (2.3%), 32nd most Latinos (42.6%)

Assessment Very vulnerable. superribbie  ranks it the 4th most vulnerable Republican seat, and it’s on the DCCC list .

District: NM-02

Location The southern half of NM, bordering AZ, TX, and Mexico

Representative Steve Pearce (R) probably retiring to run for Senate

First elected  2002

2006 margin 59-40

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents In 2004, Gary King raised $1.1 million to Pearce’s $2 million; in 2006, Albert Kissling raised $180K to Pearce’s $1.3 million

Current opponents Bill McCamley who wrote on Daily Kos

Albert Kissling , the 2006 candidate, and  

Frank McKinnon are the Democrats

Demographics 20th lowest income (median = $29K), 73rd fewest Whites (44.3%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%), 29th most Latinos (47.3%)

Assessment Vulnerable, superribbie ranks it the 28th most vulnerable Republican seat, and it’s on the DCCC list

District: NM-03

Location Northern half of NM, including Santa Fe, bordering AZ, CO, OK, and TX, and touching corners with UT.

Representative Tom Udall (D) retiring to run for Senate

First elected  1998

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin 69-31

Bush margin 2004 45-54

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Don Wiviott

Benny Shendo

Harry Montoya

Ben Lujan

and

Rudy Martin

are the Democrats

Demographics 68th fewest Whites (41.4%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 38th most Latinos (36.3%), 14th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (mostly 18.9% Native American)

Assessment Slightly vulnerable. superribbie ranks it the 30th most vulnerable Democratic seat  

Yesterday, Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley became the first U.S. Senate challenger to sign on to A Responsible Plan To End The War In Iraq.”

Click on the video to below to see Jeff Merkley discuss signing on to the Plan:

Carla–Netroots Outreach, Jeff Merkley for Oregon