Congressional races round 2: Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire

Nebraska has 3 representatives: All Republican

Filing deadline was March 3, primary is May 13

Nevada has 3 representatives: 2 Republican, 1 Democrat

Filing deadline is May 16, primary is Aug 12

New Hampshire has 2 representatives: Both Democrats

Filing deadline is June 13, primary is Sept 9

District: NE-01

Location Eastern NE, except for Omaha.  Borders MO and IA

Representative Jeff Fortenberry (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin 54-43

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents In 2004, this was an open seat and Fortenberry beat Matt Connealy, while raising $1.2 million to Connealy’s $1 million.  In 2006, Maxine Moul and Fortenberry each raised about $1 million

Current opponents Max Yashirin (site in development)

Demographics 51st fewest Blacks (1.4%)

Assessment Long shot

District: NE-02

Location Omaha and suburbs

Representative  Lee Terry (R)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 55-45

2004 margin 61-36

Bush margin 2004 60-38

Notes on opponents In 2004, Nancy Thompson raised $900K to Terry’s $1.4 million.  In 2006, Jim Esch raised $400K to Terry’s $1 million

Current opponents Jim Esch ,

Richard Carter (who blogs at Daily Kos: list of Richard Carter diaries

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment One can’t say we’re the favorites, here, but I think we have some chance

District: NE-03

Location The western 3/4 of the state, bordering SD, WY, CO and KS

Representative Adrian Smith (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 55-45

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 75-24

Notes on opponents In 2006, Scott Kleeb made this a close race, raising $1 million to Smith’s $1.2 million

Current opponents Jay Stoddard and Paul Spatz

Demographics 33rd most rural (53.9%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%), 6th most Republican

Assessment Long shot.  Kleeb is running for Senate, which is probably an easier race to win

District: NV-01

Location Las Vegas

Representative Shelley Berkley (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 65-31

2004 margin 66-31

Bush margin 2004 41-57

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 55th most Latinos (28.2%)

Assessment Safe

District: NV-02

Location Almost the whole state, except for Las Vegas and suburbs, bordering CA, OR, ID, UT, and AZ

Representative Dean Heller (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 50-45

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 57-41

Notes on opponents In 2006, this was an open seat. Heller and his opponent, Jill Derby, each raised about $1.6 million

Current opponents Jill Derby is running again

Demographics 21st most veterans (17.1%),

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. superribbie ranks this the 38th most vulnerable Republican seat.  This may depend on how fed up the military gets with the Republicans and Iraq

District: NV-03

Location A Y shaped district of Las Vegas suburbs

Representative Jon Porter (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 48-47

2004 margin 54-40

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Notes on opponents In 2006, Tessa Hafen raised $1.5 million to Porter’s $3 million.  In 2004, Tom Gallagher and Porter each raised around $2.5 million

Current opponents Andrew Martin and Barry Michaels and Robert Daskas

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Vulnerable.  superrribie (link above) ranks this the 21st most vulnerable Republican seat

District: NH-01

Location The eastern part of NH, bordering ME

Representative Carol Shea-Porter (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Notes on opponents In 2006, Shea-Porter did something very unusual: She ousted an incumbent while spending much less than the incumbent ($300K to $1 million).  A people-powered progressive, she has turned down opportunities from the DCCC.

Current opponents Jeb Bradley wants a rematch. John Stephen doesn’t want him to have one.

Demographics 55th fewest in poverty (6.7%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 24th fewest Blacks (0.7%)

Assessment  Although superribbie ranks this the 10th most vulnerable Democratic seat, I think this is one where models fail.

District: NH-02

Location The western part of NH, bordering Canada, VT, and MA

Representative Paul Hodes(D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 53-46

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 47-52

Notes on opponents In 2006, Hodes ousted Charles Bass, raising $1.6 million to Bass’ $1.2 million.

Current opponents Jim Steiner.

Demographics 57th most rural (48.3%), 50th fewest in poverty (6.4%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%).

Assessment  Somewhat vulnerable, superribbie ranks this the 24th most vulnerable Democratic seat

DCCC Releases Targeted Races List

On Friday, the DCCC released its list of 90 targeted races (both offense and defense) to watch this year. We’ve transcribed the full list in a few handy charts below — have a look. Italics denote the races that have been given “Red to Blue” status so far.


Offense:









































































































































































District Incumbent District Incumbent District Incumbent
AL-02 OPEN (Everett) IL-06 Peter Roskam NY-03 Peter King
AK-AL Don Young IL-10 Mark Kirk NY-13 Vito Fossella
AZ-01 OPEN (Renzi) IL-11 OPEN (Weller) NY-25 OPEN (Walsh)
AZ-03 John Shadegg KY-02 OPEN (Lewis) NY-26 Thomas Reynolds
CA-04 OPEN (Doolittle) LA-04 OPEN (McCrery) NY-29 Randy Kuhl
CA-26 David Dreier LA-06 OPEN (Baker) OH-01 Steve Chabot
CA-50 Brian Bilbray MD-01 OPEN (Gilchrest) OH-02 Jean Schmidt
CO-04 Marilyn Musgrave MI-07 Tim Walberg OH-14 Steve LaTourette
CT-04 Chrissy Shays MI-09 Joe Knollenberg OH-15 OPEN (Pryce)
FL-08 Ric Keller MN-03 OPEN (Ramstad) OH-16 OPEN (Regula)
FL-09 Gus Bilirakis MN-06 Michele Bachmann PA-03 Phil English
FL-13 Vern Buchanan MO-06 Sam Graves PA-06 Jim Gerlach
FL-15 OPEN (Weldon) MO-09 OPEN (Hulshof) PA-18 Tim Murphy
FL-18 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen NC-08 Robin Hayes VA-02 Thelma Drake
FL-21 Lincoln Diaz-Balart NJ-03 OPEN (Saxton) VA-10 Frank Wolf
FL-24 Tom Feeney NJ-07 OPEN (Ferguson) VA-11 OPEN (Davis)
FL-25 Mario Diaz-Balart NM-01 OPEN (Wilson) WA-08 Dave Reichert
IA-04 Tom Latham NM-02 OPEN (Pearce) WV-02 Shelley Moore-Capito
ID-01 Bill Sali NV-02 Dean Heller WY-AL OPEN (Cubin)
NV-03 Jon Porter

Defense:

































































































District Incumbent District Incumbent District Incumbent
AZ-05 Harry Mitchell IN-02 Joe Donnelly NY-24 Mike Arcuri
AZ-08 Gabrielle Giffords IN-08 Brad Ellsworth NC-11 Heath Shuler
CA-11 Jerry McNerney IN-09 Baron Hill OH-18 Zack Space
CT-02 Joe Courtney IA-03 Leonard Boswell PA-10 Chris Carney
CT-05 Chris Murphy KS-02 Nancy Boyda PA-04 Jason Altmire
FL-16 Tim Mahoney KY-03 John Yarmuth PA-08 Patrick Murphy
FL-22 Ron Klein MN-01 Tim Walz TX-17 Chet Edwards
GA-12 John Barrow NH-01 Carol Shea-Porter TX-22 Nick Lampson
GA-08 Jim Marshall NH-02 Paul Hodes TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez
IL-08 Melissa Bean NY-19 John Hall WI-08 Steve Kagen
IL-14 Bill Foster NY-20 Kirsten Gillibrand

AL-05: Party Switching and Other Developments

With Bud Cramer springing his retirement at the end of last week, there was bound to be a great deal of soul-searching and activity in AL-05 over the weekend. The best example is State Senator Tom Butler (D R – Madison) who, after talking it over with Republican Gov. Bob Riley, has apparently decided to discard the Democratic party label which got him elected to three terms in the State House and four terms in the State Senate as he's expected to switch parties and run for Cramer's seat as a Republican.

I'm sure Riley has promised Butler his full support (demonstrating the weakness of the Republican bench in North Alabama if they're scrambling for a party switcher), but Butler might want to be careful what he's asked for. Riley has never demonstrated particularly long coattails and they're bound to be even shorter in North Alabama. Republicans have lost four out of Alabama's last five special legislative elections; all of which were aggressively targeted by Riley and the Republican Party.

The most poignant of Riley's many defeats was at the hands of Democratic Butch Taylor in HD22, which lies within AL-05. For weeks after the seat opened up, all Republicans could talk about was how the district's demographics favored a conservative Republican and how "Democrats are scared to death." Sounds sorta familiar doesn't it? Riley made a few trips to the district and raised funds for the Republicans, only to see it all blow up in his face as Taylor walked away with a 16-point victory. It's the same story all over Alabama, from the election of James Fields in rural Cullman to primaries in safe-Republican seats:

Riley endorsed Randy McKinney. He was heavily favored but lost to Trip Pittman. This district is one of the most republican in the state. It is also one of Riley's top counties for popularity and job approval. McKinney led the field of four strong candidates in the first primary and had all the Montgomery money endorsements. However, Riley's endorsement created a backlash and elected Pittman.

The lesson learned by Riley is Alabamians resent a politician arrogantly trying to get involved in another race. All politics is local. These two maxims have withstood the test of time.

When thinking about the question a few months back, Doc's Political Parlor also had a hard time coming up with a successful Riley-backed candidate:

Can someone help me think of a candidate who was elected with Riley’s support that would have otherwise lost?  Not Luther Strange, Drayton Nabers, Randy McKinney… SD 17 incumbent Jack Biddle was more of a Riley man than his opponent Scott Beason but lost.

While Butler’s party switch is mildly damaging to Democratic chances of holding this seat, it’s not nearly as bad as some Republicans will attempt to spin it as. Being viewed as Riley’s boy in this race seems like it’ll be bound to hurt Butler. And I’m not sure how fired up local Republicans will be about his candidacy considering Butler’s been working and running against them as a Democrat for decades; I imagine they’ll find it rather difficult to let bygones be bygones.

Sunday Evening Round-up

  • IL-14: Novak claims that “important Illinois Republicans are urging” Jim Oberweis to drop out of the general election battle for Dennis Hastert’s old seat.  While not surprising, given Oberweis’ disastrous showing last week, such pleas are not likely to have any effect on the stubborn Oberweis, other than further damaging his credibility.

    It doesn’t help when other GOP candidates in Illinois, such as state Rep. Aaron Schock in IL-18, are giving quips such as this one:

    “Anybody in Illinois who knows Jim Oberweis knows that was not a referendum on the Republican Party; it was a referendum on Jim Oberweis,” Schock said. “The Republicans didn’t lose that race; Jim Oberweis lost that race.

    “The people that knew him best, liked him least.”

  • MN-03: In what is shaping to be a surprising upset, Ashwin Madia, a young attorney and Iraq veteran, is closing in on the DFL endorsement for the nomination to contest the open seat of retiring GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad.  At conventions across the district yesterday, Madia won many more delegates than his rival, state Senator and once-presumptive front runner Terri Bonoff.  Both Madia and Bonoff have pledged to abide by the DFL endorsement, but the math is looking very bleak for Bonoff; Madia is less than 10 delegates away from the 95 he needs to clinch the endorsement.

    An internal poll commissioned by the Bonoff campaign showed Bonoff beating GOP state Rep. Eric Paulsen by a 44%-40% margin in a hypothetical general election match-up, while Madia trails by 43%-40%.  In any event, this will be a top tier contest.

  • New Mexico: In a slate of “preprimary” nominating conventions, candidates for federal office in both parties had to cross a 20% threshold to make it onto the primary ballot.  As a result, some of the House primaries are a bit clearer.
    • NM-01: Martin Heinrich won 56% of the preprimary vote to Michelle Lujan-Grisham’s 28%.

      On the GOP side of the aisle, Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White won 85% of the vote, leaving him unopposed on the primary ballot.

    • NM-02: Democrat Bill McCamley won 48.8% of the vote to Harry Teague’s 36.5%.  No other candidates qualified for the primary ballot.

      Rancher and businessman Aubrey Dunn, Jr. won the GOP vote with the support of 30% of delegates.  Businessmen C. Earl Greer and Ed Tinsley both also qualified for the ballot with 24% each.

    • NM-03: Ben R. Luján won 40% of delegates, and will face off against former Senate candidate Don Wiviott, who qualified for the primary ballot with 30% of the vote.
  • MI-09: Jack Kevorkian is running for Congress as an independent against Republican incumbent Joe Knollenberg and Democratic challenger Gary Peters.  Oy.
  • MD-01: The biggest joke of all?  The so-called “moderate” Republican Main Street Partnership is planning on endorsing Andy Harris, the Club For Growth nutcase who successfully dislodged anti-war GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest last month.  Gilchrest, on the other hand, plans to administer a written exam to any candidate seeking his endorsement:

    Included in that test would be questions about the history of the Middle East over the past 200 years, the economic and ecological history of the Chesapeake Bay, the importance of paying attention to unemployment and various other subjects, Gilchrest said.

    “I will endorse someone that has knowledge, integrity, is competent and sees the world in a panoramic manner in all its complexities and not through a bent straw,” Gilchrest said.

    Citing a retired Marine Corps general who has been highly critical of the Bush administration’s decision to go to Iraq, Gilchrest went on to say that “we must stop promoting incompetence in return for party loyalty.”

  • IN-07: Andre Carson may be the newest kid on the block in Washington, but he still has a potentially raucous primary contest to clear in May before he gets too comfortable:

    State Rep. David Orentlicher officially launched his campaign Wednesday alongside Martin Luther King Jr.’s nephew, Derek King, while former health commissioner Woody Myers was set to launch television advertisements.

    State Rep. Carolene Mays will also pose a tough challenge to the newest congressman.

  • AZ-03: This looks like fun.  Former state Rep. Steve May has filed to run against John Shadegg in the Republican primary.  May has previously pledged to spend $1 million on the bid.

Color Chart









































































































































































District Incumbent District Incumbent District Incumbent
AL-02 OPEN (Everett) IL-06 Peter Roskam NY-03 Peter King
AK-AL Don Young IL-10 Mark Kirk NY-13 Vito Fossella
AZ-01 OPEN (Renzi) IL-11 OPEN (Weller) NY-25 OPEN (Walsh)
AZ-03 John Shadegg KY-02 OPEN (Lewis) NY-26 Thomas Reynolds
CA-04 OPEN (Doolittle) LA-04 OPEN (McCrery) NY-29 Randy Kuhl
CA-26 David Dreier LA-06 OPEN (Baker) OH-01 Steve Chabot
CA-50 Brian Bilbray MD-01 OPEN (Gilchrest) OH-02 Jean Schmidt
CO-04 Marilyn Musgrave MI-07 Tim Walberg OH-14 Steve LaTourette
CT-04 Chrissy Shays MI-09 Joe Knollenberg OH-15 OPEN (Pryce)
FL-08 Ric Keller MN-03 OPEN (Ramstad) OH-16 OPEN (Regula)
FL-09 Gus Bilirakis MN-06 Michele Bachmann PA-03 Phil English
FL-13 Vern Buchanan MO-06 Sam Graves PA-06 Jim Gerlach
FL-15 OPEN (Weldon) MO-09 OPEN (Hulshof) PA-18 Tim Murphy
FL-18 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen NC-08 Robin Hayes VA-02 Thelma Drake
FL-21 Lincoln Diaz-Balart NJ-03 OPEN (Saxton) VA-10 Frank Wolf
FL-24 Tom Feeney NJ-07 OPEN (Ferguson) VA-11 OPEN (Davis)
FL-25 Mario Diaz-Balart NM-01 OPEN (Wilson) WA-08 Dave Reichert
IA-04 Tom Latham NM-02 OPEN (Pearce) WV-02 Shelley Moore-Capito
ID-01 Bill Sali NV-02 Dean Heller WY-AL OPEN (Cubin)
NV-03 Jon Porter

What a Difference a Cycle Makes

Man, I sure do miss the Debbie Wasserman Schultz of old. Just one cycle ago, she was utterly unafraid to stand up for her party and campaign fiercely on behalf of her fellow Democrats:

While her moxie during debates over Terri Schiavo and Hurricane Katrina has earned kudos, it has also gotten the 39-year-old rookie into some trouble. She has rankled the longest-serving and most powerful congressman from South Florida, Republican Clay Shaw, by openly supporting his Democratic challenger.

Shaw’s staff said he tried to welcome her to the Capitol by offering advice and temporary office space and was upset to learn that she was helping state Sen. Ron Klein raise money and meet party leaders.

Wasserman Schultz served with Klein in the state Legislature for 12 years, and they are close friends. She was tapped by Democratic leaders to help with recruitment and said she could not stay out of a competitive congressional race.

“It’s not good for my relationship with Clay Shaw, but Democrats can’t afford to leave a seat like that uncontested,” she said.

What happened to DWS? Why are things all of a sudden so different? She took a big gamble taking on Shaw like that – Klein could easily have lost, and the Dems could very well have remained in the minority. Note that the article is from 2005, when Dem prospects didn’t look nearly so bright as they later would. Also note the URL – Debbie was proud enough of that piece to re-print it on her own website.

Now, Debbie Dubya has far less to lose – and yet she’s being far more hesitant. In fact, she’s being downright destructive toward Raul Martinez, Joe Garcia and Annette Taddeo, all in the name of “bipartisan comity.” Debbie was right two-and-a-half years ago – Dems couldn’t afford to leave a seat like Clay Shaw’s uncontested. And they can’t afford to leave FL-18, FL-21 & FL-25 anything less than vigorously contested this cycle, either.

Congressional races round 2: Mississippi, Missouri, Montana

Continuing through the alphabet….

Mississippi has 4 representatives: 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans

The filing deadline was Jan 11, and the primary was on March 11

Missouri has 9 representatives: 5 Republicans and 4 Democrats

Filing deadline is March 25, primary is Aug 5

Montana has one representative, a Republican

Filing deadline is March 20, primary is June 3

District: MS-01

Location Northeastern MS, bordering TN and AL, including Tupelo

Representative None (Wicker became Senator), election on April 22

First elected  

2006 margin

2004 margin

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Democrats: Travis Childers

Demographics 15th most rural (61.5%), 5th fewest nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlack (1.1%), 58th lowest income (median = $33K)

Assessment Long shot

District: MS-02

Location Western MS, bordering AR and LA

Representative Bennie Thompson (D)

First elected  1993

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 58-41

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents In 2006, Yvonne Brown raised $100K to Thompson’s $1.4 million; in 2004, Clinton LeSeuer raised $300K to Thompson’s $700K

Current opponents Richard Cook (Thompson is also being primaried)

Demographics 8th poorest (median income = $27K), 10th most in poverty (27.3%), 3rd most Blacks (63.2$, only IL01 and LA02 are higher), 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)

Assessment Safe

District: MS-03

Location Runs SW to NE, from Natchez, in the southwest, ot Starkville, in the northeast.  Borders both LA and AL

Representative Chip Pickering (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 78% against minor parties

2004 margin 80% against minor parties

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Randy Eads

Demographics  18th most rural (59.7%), 51st poorest (median income = $32K), 39th most Black (33.1%), 33rd least Latino (1.2%), 51st most Republican

Assessment long shot

District: MS-04

Location Southeastern MS, bordering AL, LA, and the Gulf

Representative Gene Taylor (D)

First elected  1989

2006 margin 80-20

2004 margin 64-35

Bush margin 2004 68-31

Notes on opponents In 2004, Michael Lott raised $90K to Taylor’s $400K

Current opponents John McCay

Demographics 64th poorest (median income = $33K), 34th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment Safe.  OK, Taylor is a very conservative Democrat.  But he wins easily in a district that Bush took by more than 30 points in 04 and 08

District: MO-01

Location St. Louis

Representative William Lacy Clay (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 73-25

2004 margin 75-23

Bush margin 2004 25-75

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 24th most Black (49.7%), 31st most Democratic

Assessment safe

District: MO-02

Location A ring around St. Louis, including a bit of the city

Representative Todd Akin (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 61-37

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Mike Garman

Demographics 35th wealthiest (median income = $61K), 8 least in poverty (3.6%), 38th most White (93.2%)

Assessment Long shot

District: MO-03

Location Southern part of St. Louis, and southern suburbs

Representative Russ Carnahan (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 66-32

2004 margin 53-45

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents  In 2004, this was an open seat (formerly occupied by Gephardt), and Carnahan beat Bill Federer with each spending about $1.3 million.  In 2006, his opponent raised little

Current opponents David Bertelson, Chris Sander

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MO-04

Location Western MO, bordering KS, including Jefferson City

Representative Ike Skelton

First elected   1976

2006 margin 68-29

2004 margin 66-32

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents  None declared

Demographics 17th most rural (60.1%), 85th poorest (median income = $35K), 37th most veterans (16.1%), 87th most Republican

Assessment safe

District: MO-05

Location Kansas City and suburbs

Representative  Emanuel Cleaver (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 64-32

2004 margin 55-42

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents In 2004, this was an open seat, and Cleaver was out-spent $3.2 million to $1.5 million by Joanne Patterson.  In 2006, his opponent raised little money

Current opponents Jacob Turk

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: MO-06

Location Northwestern MO, bordering IA, NE, and KS

Representative Sam Graves (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 64-35

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Notes on opponents In 2004, Charlie Broomfield spent $900K to Graves’ $1.7 million.  In 2006, Sara Jo Shettles spent $130K to Graves’ $1.2 million

Current opponents Kay Barnes

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable.  Barnes is Mayor of Kansas City, and has raised $656K already.   superribbie ranks this the 42nd most vul. Republican seat

District: MO-07

Location Southwestern MO, bordering KS, OK, and AR, including Joplin

Representative Roy Blunt (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 70-28

Bush margin 2004 67-32

Notes on opponents In 2004, Jim Newberry raised $200K to Blount’s $3.5 million.  In 2006, his opponent raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 86th most rural (40.9%), 62nd poorest (meidan income = $33K), 45th most Whites (92.9%), 42nd fewest Blacks (1.2%)

Assessment long shot

District: MO-08

Location Southeastern MO, bordering KY, TN, and AR.

Representative Jo Ann Emerson (R)

First elected 1996

2006 margin 72-26

2004 margin 72-27

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Joe Allen (no apparent site)

Demographics 16th most rural (60.4%), 12th poorest (meidan income = $28K), 30th most Whites (92.5%), 22nd fewest Latinos (1.0%), 87th most Republican

Assessment long shot

District: MO-09

Location Northeastern MO, bordering IA and IL, including part of Jefferson City

Representative Kenny Hulshof (R) retiring

First elected  1996

2006 margin 61-36

2004 margin 65-34

Bush margin 2004 59-41

Notes on opponents In 2006, Duane Burghard raised $250K to Hulshof’s $1.3 million; in 2004, Linda Jacobsen raised $130K to his $1 million

Current opponents Democrats:

Steve Gaw ,

Duane Burghard ,

and

Judy Baker

Demographics 31st most rural (54.2%),

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable; superribbie (link above) ranks this the 25th most vulnerable Republican seat; the Republican contender appears to have raised no money.  

District: MT-AL

Location Entire state

Representative Denny Rehberg (R)*possibly retiring to run for Senate*

First elected  2000

2006 margin 59-39

2004 margin 64-33

Bush margin 2004 59-39

Notes on opponents In 2006, Monica Lindeen raised $500K to Rehberg’s $1.1 million; in 2004, Tracy Velazquez raised $120K to Rehberg’s $600 K

Current opponents Jim Hunt

Demographics 68th most rural (46.0%), 65th lowest income (median = $33K), 37th most White (89.5%), 3rd fewest Blacks (0.3%)

Assessment If Rehberg runs for Senate, who knows?

KS-02 Boyda’s courageous vote on FISA

Crossposted from BoydaBloc

On Friday, Congresswoman Nancy Boyda did something courageous.  She did something brave.  She did something historic.

And she did what was right.

On Friday, Congresswoman Nancy Boyda voted for an update of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillances Act, or FISA.  She voted, in every procedural motion, to send the House version of the bill- the version without retroactive immunity for the phone companies- to the floor for a vote.  It’s exactly the way she voted in August, too.

Through it all, her position stayed the same.  In newspapers up and down the district she laid out her case:

In her own Op-Ed that ran in the Ottawa Herald she said:

To my mind, “wiretap first, get permission later” makes perfect sense. It gives the executive branch the power it needs to fight terrorism, and at the same time, it preserves the checks and balances our Constitution guarantees. It ensures that the U.S. intelligence community has every tool it needs to fight terrorists. And, by providing judicial oversight, it ensures the privacy of Americans who travel overseas for business or pleasure. It is simply wrong to wiretap Americans without a warrant.

Very unfortunately, the president has drawn a line in the sand. He has sworn to veto any FISA bill that includes court oversight. Instead, he wants the executive branch to oversee itself; he wants all FISA programs to fall under the jurisdiction of the Attorney General and the Director of National Intelligence.

That is a flagrant violation of checks and balances, and what’s more, it won’t help America fight terrorism more effectively. The FISA court is extremely generous with its warrants. Through 2004, the court had granted 18,761 wiretap requests. It had rejected only five.

And in the Leavenworth Times she was quoted as saying:

“I am adamant about protecting the Constitution. They’re giving nothing in return for it. We’re not getting any more security and they’re shredding the Constitution,” said U.S. Rep. Nancy Boyda, D-Second Dist.

[…]

“What shocks me is how members of Congress from Kansas would so readily give up 230 years of our Constitution without gaining any additional security,” Boyda said.

And, she said in the Lawrence Journal-World:

“The foundation of our democracy … is at stake in the House of Representatives,” she said. She said Bush’s attempts to stifle inquiries into wiretapping and the role of telecom companies was “a massive cover-up … because he doesn’t want you to know that the Constitution has been shredded and he doesn’t want you to know how long” wiretapping has been happening.

And here, in her speech before the Kansas Democratic Party State Convention, she explained herself brilliantly:

The Republican Party has tried to scare Americans into allowing this President to have carte blanc authority- and to hand immunity to companies, even when he won’t tell us why they need it.  TV commercials and radio ads have attempted to scare all of us- and our members of Congress- into doing & believing what they wanted.

Nancy’s right- that was a damn lie.  And, now, 197 Republicans voted against updating FISA, only because telecoms didn’t get overarching protections from being sued.  This version of FISA protects us all, lets our national security organizations engage in investigations that are necessary- and doesn’t shred the Constitution in the process.

197 Republicans voted against ensuring Americans are safe because a phone company might get sued for potentially breaking the law.  And the President promises to veto the bill- because Lord knows phone companies are more important than American lives.

Boyda did what was right- and saying she didn’t is a losing argument for the Republican Party.

GA-11 Candidate Kicks-off’s On Sunday’s Kudzu Vine!

Georgia's 11th Congressional District candidate will be announced, interviewed, and his campaign site will launch on Sunday's Kudzu Vine!

Also, don't forget Jim Spearman, Ex. Director of the Alabama Democratic Party will join us on the Kudzu Vine Sunday Night. Jim will discuss their US Senate race, defending Bud Cramer's seat, and 2 possible Congressional pick-ups in the state.

Listen live at 7:00 EST or download later here

PA-05: Mark B. McCracken attends historic groundbreaking of Pennsylvania’s FIRST ethanol plant.

Clearfield County Commissioner and 5th District Congressional Candidate Mark B. McCracken was invited by officials of BioEnergy LLC to take part in the official groundbreaking ceremony held on Thursday March 13th for the Bionol Clearfield Biorefinery.

Pennsylvania Governor Edward G. Rendell was on hand to proclaim Clearfield County as the “Alternative Energy Capitol” of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.  During his comments, Governor Rendell gave praise to State Representative Camille George (D-74) for his leadership and determination to bring the project to Clearfield County.  Governor Rendell also recognized Clearfield County Commissioners McCracken, McMillen and Sobel along with former commissioner Rex Read for their “vision and leadership to help bring this multi-million dollar facility to their county”.  Governor Rendell concluded his remarks stating “We’re not only going to make this facility one of the energy capitals of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, but I hope of America as well.”

Representative George then took to the podium and said the ethanol plant groundbreaking represented a day of promise and belief.  He stated “I’m not just impressed with the dollars spent, the jobs it will provide and the gallons of fuel to be produced,” he said.  “So many years ago, no one would have believed in this project.  I would like to introduce the naysayers to Clearfield County – the can-do county.  We’re worth believing in and will do you proud.”

Candidate Mark McCracken thanks Governor Rendell for his efforts to bring the Bionol Clearfield Bio-refinery to Clearfield County.

Stephen J. Gatto, chairman and chief executive officer of BioEnergy International LLC, spoke of the cooperation and collaboration that went into the project stating “We’ve collaborated on the ushering in of a new industrial revolution.”  Mr. Gatto, at one point in his comments stated “I thank the Clearfield County Commissioners for their cooperation and determination to make this project happen in their county”.

Following the ceremony, Commissioner McCracken commented to the press, “This project will give Clearfield County and the entire region a chance to claim a new industrial identity.  During most of the 20th century we were known for coal and brickyards but now we begin a bright future as the home of domestically produced alternative fuels”.



Facility Background Information – Provide by Corinne Young, Director of Government Affairs for BioEnergy.

The ethanol plant, which has received approximately $22 million in state funding and private funding of $248 million, is currently in the first phase of construction.  “Phase 1 includes the site work leveling and re-grading,” Young said.  She said construction workers are on location six days a week from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m.

According to Young, the facility’s construction will get underway in April and consists of two plants.  The first facility will be a corn-based ethanol plant, while the second will serve as a pilot, cellulose based plant.  “It’s going to be a $275 million dollar investment for the corn-based plant alone.  The pilot, cellulose plant will require additional funding,” Young said.

“It will have the capabilities to produce more than 100 million gallons each year,” she said of the corn-based ethanol plant.

Young said both plants are expected to be completed and in operation in 2010.  She said the plants will combine to hire about 70 full-time employees, while talks of a third, potential plant would result in 30 to 40 additional jobs.

Ms. Young concluded “We’re proud to be in partnership with the community.  We’re hoping to make Clearfield County the destination for renewable energy.”