Month: April 2008

With the DCCC dropping $111,000 on TV ads and literature in the special election race to replace GOP Rep. Richard Baker, the NRCC has followed suit with a $110K buy of its own against Democrat Don Cazayoux.

The NRCC’s ad (viewable here) hits Cazayoux on taxes and also mocks the spelling of his name.  DavidNYC offers his take:

Making fun of his last name strikes me as remarkably tone deaf and buttresses the claims that the staff at the NRCC – long considered a very good shop – really has gotten a lot weaker. This reminds of when the Club for Growth ran ads against Olympia Snowe calling her a “Franco-Republican” (she likes to raise taxes – just like the French, get it?), despite Maine have a very large population of French descent.

As for the tax hike claims, the ad in tiny type has a running list of bills (which Cazayoux presumably voted for) that allegedly contained these tax hikes. If these claims are bullshit, Cazayoux should demand the ad be taken off the air. (Remember, the threshold is lower for non-candidate ads.)

Meanwhile, quietly concerned about the open seat race to fill the vacant seat of MS-01 (previously held by Roger Wicker, who was tapped by Haley Barbour to replace Trent Lott in the Senate), the NRCC also logged a $12K expenditure on a poll of the district.  Depending on its results, we may see the GOP pour some more resources into this race to bolster GOP candidate Greg Davis against Democrat Travis Childers, who is running a hard-charging campaign for the R+10 seat.

Even without a pair of wins here, the fact that the NRCC is bleeding resources on a string of red seat special elections is priceless.

Eight luscious Goya nectars:

VA-Sen:

     Mark Warner (D): $2.5M raised; $4.4M CoH

VA-02:

     Glenn Nye (D): $252K raised; >$220K CoH

NH-Sen:

     Jeanne Shaheen (D): ~$1.2M raised; ~$2M CoH

FL-21:

     Raul Martinez (D): >$615K raised

     Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-inc): >$600K raised, >$1.4M CoH

KY-02:

     David Haire (D): >$200K raised

KY-03:

     John Yarmuth (D-inc): ~$250K raised

MN-01:

     Tim Walz (D-inc): $352K raised; $1.02M CoH

PA-05:

     Bill Cahir (D): $121K raised; $99K CoH (the report says otherwise, but it was obviously a tabulation error)

PA-15:

     Charlie Dent (R-inc): $167K raised; $616K CoH

TX-07:

     Joe Culberson (R-inc): $297K raised; $271K CoH

PA-03:

     Kyle Foust (D): $61K raised; $43K CoH

     Mike Waltner (D): $55K raised; $39K CoH

IL-13:

     Scott Harper (D): $134K raised; $103K CoH

AZ-08:

     Gabby Giffords (D-inc): $467K raised; $1.67M CoH

PA-11:

     Lou Barletta (R): $185K raised; $154K CoH

1Q Fundraising Results Thread | Son of… | Revenge of… | Raiders of the… | Alien vs. Predator vs… | Grandson of… | Return of…

Boom goes the dynamite:

DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE

Great American Media

Purpose of Expenditure: Media Buy

Name of Federal Candidate supported or opposed by expenditure: Louis (Woody) Jenkins

Office Sought: House of Representatives

State is Louisiana in District 06

Amount Expended = $92177.00

Allan B Crow &Associates, Inc.

Purpose of Expenditure: Media Production

Name of Federal Candidate supported or opposed by expenditure: Louis (Woody) Jenkins

Amount Expended = $6842.11

Mission Control, Inc.

Purpose of Expenditure: Literature

Name of Federal Candidate supported or opposed by expenditure: Donald J. Cazayoux

Amount Expended = $5750.00

Mission Control, Inc.

Purpose of Expenditure: Literature

Name of Federal Candidate supported or opposed by expenditure: Louis (Woody) Jenkins

Amount Expended = $5750.00

Bear in mind that this ain’t no chump change.  The Baton Rouge media market is ten times less expensive than Chicago’s, where the DCCC bought time for ads opposing wingnut Jim Oberweis.

Chris Cilizza has a copy of the ad hitting Jenkins.

UPDATE: The NRCC is up with an ad of its own, also using taxes as its main message.  No word yet on how large of an ad buy this is.

IVR Polls (likely voters, 4/8):

Michael Skelly (D): 39%

John Culberson (R-inc): 57%

Undecided: 4%

(MoE: ±4.2%)

This isn’t too far off from an earlier poll which showed Culberson up by 52-33. This is a deep red district — with a PVI of R+15.6, it’s about on par with Nick Lampson’s TX-22.  Skelly has turned some heads by raising a reported $750,000 in the first quarter of 2008, but he definitely still has an uphill climb here.

The pollster has some more details on the poll in the diaries.

Oregon House Speaker and U.S. Senate candidate Jeff Merkley has his first TV spot up on the air!

The ad highlights Jeff’s history as a fighter for Oregon’s progressive values and Jeff’s commitment to going to the U.S. Senate to end the war in Iraq, protect a woman’s right to choose and gain accessible health care for all.

Check it out:

Carla–Netroots Outreach, Jeff Merkley for Oregon

The field has narrowed in the race against freshman GOP Rep. Bill “Brain Fade” Sali:

Former Micron executive Larry Grant said Thursday morning that he will not run for the U.S. House in Idaho’s 1st congressional district.

Instead, Grant endorsed Walt Minnick, a former timber executive who ran for the U.S. Senate in 1996. […]

Grant lost to Republican Bill Sali in the 2006 election and was under pressure from some in the Idaho Democratic Party to drop out this time.

Grant appeared at a news conference in Boise with Minnick and Democratic former Gov. Cecil Andrus.

This isn’t very surprising.  Grant has had very little fundraising success in his second kick at the can (just $60K raised last year), while Minnick’s been posting huge numbers (over $400K raised in the 4th quarter).

It’s going to be a lot tougher to beat Sali this time, but hopefully Minnick’s large cash reserves should make this nutter sweat.

Rasmussen (likely voters, 4/7):

Mark Begich (D): 45%

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46%

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rasmussen (likely voters, 4/8, 2/18 in parens)

Tom Udall (D): 54% (50%)

Steve Pearce (R): 40% (42%)

Tom Udall (D): 56% (50%)

Heather Wilson (R): 36% (43%)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

How’s that nasty primary working out for you, NM GOP?

(H/T: X-Stryker)

Michael Skelly made news recently by reporting extremely robust fundraising for a first time Democratic challenger in a traditionally Republican district. A high dollar DC pollster surveyed the race back in February and found him trailing incumbent John Culberson 52 to 33, with 16% undecided. After voters heard ‘positive bios’ for both candidates, that became a tie at 44. With the recent flurry of news on Skelly’s fundraising, I thought I’d poll the race and see if there had been movement. Skelly’s campaign has been out blockwalking, and I have noticed many online ads, but I don’t think they have done any traditional advertising at this point.

My poll asked a series of questions about possible presidential matchups, the Senate race and finally the CD7 race. I also asked about the 2004 Bush/Kerry vote, which came back 64/36 for Bush, in line with the actual results for the district. Of the presidential matchups, Obama did slightly better than Clinton against McCain, but the Republican held a large lead in both matchups.

In the CD7 race, I identified each candidate’s party, which may explain the unexpectedly low undecided response. Only 4% said they were undecided, with Culberson receiving 57% to Skelly’s 39%. On the other hand, there was a significant amount of mixed-party support in various forms. Some went with Cornyn and Skelly, others with Noriega and Culberson, some that went Democratic for president but Republican for the lower ticket races and some that went McCain, Noriega and Skelly. Less than half supported all three Republicans, though that is probably the best spin for the Democrats to come out of this poll. Enough voters are willing to consider a non-Republican, but a Democratic candidate would need flawless execution and a little luck.

For CD7, the older the voter, the more likely the support for Culberson. Voters under 40 were +8 for Culberson, 40-59 were +18 and 60+ were +23. There was no gender gap, as Culberson got the same percentage from both men and women. Non-white percentages are too small to provide meaningful crosstabs, but Skelly does lead Culberson here.

For the Senate race, Cornyn leads Noriega 58 to 39 in the district. Despite the similar results, about 6% of Cornyn’s support went with Skelly, and a similar amount of Culberson’s support went with Noriega. In general, the Noriega/Culberson flippers have a higher percentage of older women than average, and the Cornyn/Skelly flippers have a higher percentage of men than average, not concentrated in any one age group.

536 polled 4/8/08, Margin of error 4.2%

Direct link

New Rasmussen poll on the Alaska Senate race!

Rasmussen: Alaska Senate 4/7, 500 LV, MOE +/-4.5%

Mark Begich (D): 45%

Ted Stevens (R): 46%

Some other candidate: 4%

Not sure: 5%

Lots of pundits were quick to discount last December’s R2K poll for DKos, but they can’t deny it any longer – this race is officially a Tossup.

More recent polls below the flip!

cross-posted from Election Inspection

Latest Senate Polls for 2008:

State	Incumbent	Poll	Dem Candidate	%	Rep Candidate	%
AL	Sessions	Rasmussen 4/2	Figures	36	Sessions	57
AK	Stevens	Rasmussen 4/7	Begich	45	Stevens	46
CO	Allard	Rasmussen 3/17	Mark Udall	46	Schaffer	43
GA	Chambliss	Rasmussen 3/20	Vernon Jones	30	Chambliss	56
GA	Chambliss	Rasmussen 3/20	Dale Cardwell	36	Chambliss	52
GA	Chambliss	Rasmussen 3/20	Jim Martin	33	Chambliss	51
ME	Collins	Rasmussen 4/3	Allen	38	Collins	54
MN	Coleman	Rasmussen 3/19	Franken	46	Coleman	48
NH	Sununu	ARG 3/14-3/17	Shaheen	47	Sununu	33
NJ	Lautenberg	Rasmussen 3/27	Lautenberg	54	Joe Pennacchio	36
NJ	Lautenberg	Rasmussen 3/27	Lautenberg	54	Murray Sabrin	35
SD	Johnson	Rasmussen 3/4	Johnson	63	Joel Dykstra	28
TN	Alexander	Rasmussen 4/3	Bob Tuke	30	Alexander	59
TN	Alexander	Rasmussen 4/3	Mike Padgett	31	Alexander	58
VA	John Warner	Rasmussen 3/26	Mark Warner	55	Gilmore	39

Today’s new poll is Alaska, where Rasmussen shows a Tossup. Since March, 4 races have been polled as Solid Republican Hold (AL, GA, ME, TN), 2 races are Solid Democratic Hold (NJ, SD), 3 races are Tossups (AK, CO, MN), and 2 races are Solid Democratic Gain. New Mexico hasn’t been polled since February, but it too rates Solid Democratic Gain, while Oregon’s February polls shows it to be Solid Republican Hold at this time. That is regardless of whether Wilson, Pearce, Merkley, or Novick wins their respective primaries. Louisiana has not been polled since December and rated Slight Democratic Hold at that time.

For races where the most recent poll is older than March, check out Election Inspection’s Senate Polls page.