Month: April 2009

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (4/17-19, “Colorado voters,” no trendlines):

Bill Ritter (D-inc): 41

Scott McInnis (R): 48

Undecided: 11

Bill Ritter (D-inc): 42

Josh Penry (R): 40

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±3%)

These numbers are pretty disturbing at first glance – incumbent Dem Bill Ritter is well under 50 and trails former Rep. Scott McInnis by a substantial margin, and barely beats Colorado state Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry. What gives? PPP doesn’t offer much in the way of explanation, just noting that Ritter’s approvals have dropped over their last three polls. He also didn’t fare so hot when PPP paired him up against some other names back in January (PDF) – just 46-40 over former (and 2006 opponent) Rep. Bob Beauprez.

PPP seemed to have a weirdly low approval rating for Obama in this poll, just 49-45. By way of comparison, PPP recently had Obama at 47-45 in Arkansas and 46-45 in Kentucky, while showing him at 54-38 in North Carolina. So it’s easy to see why the CO numbers just feel off. Apart from PPP (which is testing this particular matchup for the first time), I’m not aware of anyone even polling this race yet. We’ll have a better sense, of course, whenever they (or another firm) release a new survey.

• NY-20 (pdf): Last evening’s total from the BoE had Scott Murphy leading Jim Tedisco by 401. With his chances approaching the “statistically impossible” realm, we may reportedly see a Tedisco concession today.

• MN-Sen: Norm Coleman could take a few pointers from Jim Tedisco. The five justices of the Minnesota Supreme Court who’ll hear the election contest (two justices who’ve been actively involved in the count recused themselves) announced that their expedited hearing isn’t all that expedited: it’ll happen on June 1, to give the parties adequate time to file briefs and replies. In the meantime, that gives Minnesotans more than one more month with just one senator.

• GA-Gov, GA-03: Just one day after his name was suddenly floated for GA-Gov, Rep. Lynn Westmoreland flushed that idea, saying he’ll stay in the House.

• PA-Gov: Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato was bandied about as the early front-runner for the Democratic nomination for the open governor’s race in 2010, but we’ve heard nary a peep from him on the matter. Apparently, he is in fact interested, as he says he’s “laying the groundwork” and expects a formal announcement later in the year.

• TN-Gov: Businessman Mike McWherter made official his candidacy for the Democratic nod in the open Tennessee governor’s race. McWherter hasn’t held elective office, but benefits strongly from links with his father, popular ex-governor Ned McWherter.

• SC-Gov: Lawyer Mullins McLeod (and apparent scion of a political family, although one that pales in comparison to the Thurmonds or Campbells) announced his bid for the Democratic nomination in the open governor’s race. He joins two Democratic state senators Vincent Shaheen and Robert Ford in the chase.

• CA-10: Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, who previously issued an internal poll showing her leading senator Mark DeSaulnier, has officially jumped into the special election field. With Lt. Gov. John Garamendi’s entry into the race, splitting the white-guy vote, Buchanan probably feels that her hand has been strengthened.

• CO-03: Rep. John Salazar has drawn a solid Republican challenger in this R+5 district: Martin Beeson, who’s the district attorney for Pitkin, Garfield, and Rio Blanco Counties. Blue Dog Salazar has had little trouble with re-election despite the district’s lean.

• CA-36: Jane Harman’s high-profile role in the still-unfolding wiretap scandal has liberal activists in the 36th, long frustrated by Harman’s hold on this D+12 district, wondering if they finally have an opening to defeat her in a primary. Marcy Winograd, who won 38% against Harman in 2006, has been urged to run again and is “thinking about it.”

• MI-07: For real? Republicans in DC (read: the NRCC) are telling MLive.com’s Susan J. Demas that their top choice to take on frosh Dem Mark Schauer is none other than… ex-Rep. Joe Schwarz, who was ingloriously defeated in a 2006 primary by wingnut Tim Walberg. Schwarz, who went so far as to endorse Schauer over Walberg last fall, tells Demas that he’s not interested in running again. (J)

• NH-02: Democratic New Hampshire State Rep. John DeJoie has formed an exploratory committee for the seat Paul Hodes is leaving open. (D)

• KS-04: Democrats have their first candidate in the open seat in the 4th: Robert Tillman, a retired court services officer, and former precinct committeeman and NAACP local board member. There’s more firepower on the GOP side of the aisle in this now-R+14 district, including RNC member Mike Pompeo and state senator Dick Kelsey.

• Redistricting: Republican Ohio state senator John Husted (who will probably be the GOP’s candidate for SoS in 2010) has introduced legislation that would totally change the way redistricting is done in Ohio. It would create a 7-member bipartisan commission that would draw both congressional and state district lines (removing congressional district authority from the legislature, and legislative district authority from the 5-member panel that Dems currently control). It remains to be seen, though, whether this proposal would make it past the Democratic governor and state house.

• Nostalgia: Yahoo is shutting down the venerable Geocities. What ever will former Louisiana senate candidate John Neeley Kennedy do? (D)

Big news in the Illinois senate destruction derby. William Daley, the Clinton-era Commerce Secretary and brother to Chicago mayor Richard Daley, has opted not to get into the race after all:

It’s over: “I was gung-ho, and hired pollsters and talked to fund-raisers and planned to make an announcement in mid-April,” Daley told Sneed yesterday. “But I’m getting remarried in June and decided I want to take a new tack in my life. I just don’t want to live a commuter life back and forth from Washington.”

Hmmm. Maybe he didn’t like what the pollsters were telling him, or more likely, he didn’t like what he was in his wallet, compared with the $1.1 million that treasurer Alexi Giannoulias pulled down in the first quarter. Still, with the full force of the legendary Daley machine behind him, he would have presented Giannoulias with a formidable challenge… maybe enough of a challenge to outright win, or more ominously, enough of a challenge for him and Giannoulias to punch each other out and accidentally allow Roland Burris, on the strength of African-American votes, to win the primary.

With Daley out, a one-on-one contest between (Friend of Barack) Giannoulias, and Roland Burris and his $845, seems like no contest whatsoever. But now Daley bailing out (and Burris’s increasingly apparent ineptitude) raises the question of whether someone else gets in. Rep. Jan Schakowsky is certainly interested in the senate seat but seems loath to leave her safe house seat; a likelier possibility may in fact be Rep. Danny Davis, who has been urging Burris to get out of the way and may now see more of an opening for himself now that it looks like Burris may not even have much of a foothold on the African-American vote.

Rasmussen (4/21, likely voters, no trendlines):

Arlen Specter (R-inc): 30

Pat Toomey (R): 51

(MoE: 4.5%)

Wow… I (and everyone else in the blogosphere) knew that Arlen Specter was facing serious trouble in his primary re-match against Pat Toomey, given that he barely won in 2004 and since then Pennsylvania has been steadily bluening, has closed primaries, and a small but crucial chunk of the state’s GOP moderates re-registered in 2008 to participate in the hot Democratic presidential primary. But this poll is pretty staggering, especially when you also see that while Specter is universally-known among the all-Republican sample and has a favorable/unfavorable of 42/55, Toomey clocks in at 66/19. Specter is somewhere well past toast; he’s looking more like that carbonized crud that collects at the bottom of the toaster.

I note one problem with this poll: it doesn’t include Peg Luksik, who has very little money but has the pro-life credentials and track record (including 44% in the 1990 GOP gubernatorial primary against a pro-choice candidate). Luksik has the potential to siphon off religious right voters from Toomey, who’s running as more of a free-market fundamentalist and wasn’t a values hardliner when he was in the House. But Luksik has a bit of “has-been” about her, having peaked long ago, and with much of the sound and fury on the GOP side coming on economic issues right now (in this same sample, Rasmussen finds 79/12 favorability for the teabaggers’ movement, and 82% agreement on the statement that the federal government has “too much money and power”), she’s not poised to get much traction this time. With Toomey already grabbing 51% of the vote, it doesn’t seem to matter much what Luksik does.

So, how will these numbers shape the race to come? Will they prompt Specter to rethink his firm stance on running as a Republican? Does he become an independent (or join Connecticut for Lieberman… which would then need a new name, like Connecticut and Pennsylvania for Lieberman and Specter, CaPfLaS for short…)? The problem with that is, he would need to be running against an Alan Schlesinger-type to be able to win the general by grabbing the center and center-right, and Toomey is much more formidable than that. And, on the Dem side, does Specter’s imminent peril start prompting top-tier Democrats (Joe Sestak or maybe Allyson Schwartz) to jump in, despite Joe Torsella’s big fundraising headstart? Or does at some point, if the polls get bad enough, Specter just say “f*@k it” and walk away from re-election, leaving the GOP to wallow in its own self-defeating stupidity? (Speculation already underway in omarka‘s diary.)

A month or so ago, there were dueling polls regarding how deep in the shit Specter is.  Rasmussen breaks the tie:

Pat Toomey             51%

Arlen Specter          30%

Some Other Candidate   9%

Not sure               10%

As for favorables:

Specter is viewed favorably by 42% of Pennsylvania Republicans and unfavorably by 55%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state. Those are stunningly poor numbers for a long-term incumbent senator. Specter was first elected to the Senate in 1980.

Toomey, who served in the House from 1999 to 2005, earns positive reviews from 66% and negative comments from just 19%.

Jeebus.  That favorability comparison is only slightly better than Patterson/Cuomo (among Dem primary voters).  And Toomey’s lack of unknowns (15%) means that Specter is trapped.  Specter has to go nuclear in order to save his seat.  In the event that he somehow makes it out of the primary, his general election base would be completely alienated and he’d be left with no money.

I’m hoping that the NRSC pulls a Chaffee, blowing a wad of dough on this unwinnable race and alienating potential donors.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

Looks like it may soon be curtains for Jimmy T-Bags:

A finish line could be in sight in the race for the 20th Congressional District. With the numbers not looking good for Republican Jim Tedisco, sources tell Capital News 9 that Tedisco could concede to Democrat Scott Murphy as soon as Friday afternoon.

Let’s only hope! I look forward to seeing Scott Murphy be officially declared the winner and joining the Democratic caucus in the House.

Here’s our summary of FEC filings for the quarter that ended on March 30, for the hot Senate races. (House filings are here.) The left column is total receipts for the second quarter. (This is based on slightly different criteria as ‘total raised’ from the House list, as ‘total receipts’ doesn’t include transfers between committees.) The right column is current cash on hand. All dollar amounts are in thousands. Numbers are courtesy of the National Journal, except for John Sharp’s numbers, which come from Burnt Orange Report.

There are a number of announced candidates in interesting races who aren’t included in this table because they formally announced their candidacies either in April or late March so that reporting was not required. This includes Ryan Frazier (CO), Rob Simmons (CT), Jack Conway (KY), Sharron Angle (NV), and Pat Toomey (PA). On the other hand, you’ll see a number of representatives who are likely or potential candidates who haven’t announced, but are included; that’s because their House numbers are public and, if they switch, can be transferred.

State	Candidate	Party	2Q Receipts	CoH
Arizona	McCain	R-inc	$2,557	$4,440
Arkansas	Lincoln	D-inc	$1,722	$2,272
California	Boxer	D-inc	$905	$4,622
California	DeVore	R	$132	$48
Colorado	Bennet	D-inc	$1,426	$1,346
Connecticut	Dodd	D-inc	$1,049	$1,388
Connecticut	Caligiuri	R	$45	$36
Delaware	Castle	R	$75	$842
Florida	Rubio	R	$255	$212
Florida	Meek	D	$1,513	$1,678
Florida	Gelber	D	$363	$296
Illinois	Burris	D-inc	$0.845	$0.845
Illinois	Giannoulias	D	$1,145	$1,123
Illinois	Kirk	R	$696	$598
Kentucky	Bunning	R-inc	$263	$376
Kentucky	Mongiardo	D	$430	$389
Louisiana	Vitter	R-inc	$740	$2,536
Louisiana	Melancon	D	$187	$912
Missouri	Blunt	R	$560	$674
Missouri	Carnahan	D	$1,048	$928
Nevada	Reid	D-inc	$2,234	$5,053
Nevada	Heller	R	$96	$178
New Hampshire	Sununu	R	$0	$97
New Hampshire	Hodes	D	$302	$261
New York	Gillibrand	D-inc	$2,347	$2,203
New York	Israel	D	$282	$1,723
New York	Maloney	D	$427	$1,339
New York	McCarthy	D	$150	$262
New York	King	R	$131	$1,127
North Carolina	Burr	R-inc	$703	$1,626
North Carolina	McIntyre	D	$64	$633
Ohio	Portman	R	$1,705	$3,042
Ohio	Fisher	D	$1,036	$1,017
Ohio	Brunner	D	$207	$193
Oklahoma	Coburn	R-inc	$17	$57
Pennsylvania	Specter	R-inc	$1,277	$6,736
Pennsylvania	Luksik	R	$11	$3
Pennsylvania	Sestak	D	$550	$3,343
Pennsylvania	Schwartz	D	$379	$2,146
Pennsylvania	Torsella	D	$597	$584
Texas	Williams	R	$348	$388
Texas	Shapiro	R	$34	$210
Texas	Sharp	D	$2,517 *	$2,433
Texas	White	D	$1,876	$2,132
Wisconsin	Feingold	D	$720	$2,758

Which incumbent raised the most? Kristen Gillibrand, unsurprisingly (given her monster fundraising reputation, her expensive state, and the likelihood of a serious primary challenge), followed by Harry Reid and Blanche Lincoln, both acting quickly to squelch any notions of a serious GOP challenge.

But which non-incumbent raised the most? Rob Portman led the GOP with $1.7 million, and Kendrick Meek has been busy with $1.5 million. But the winner is a Democratic candidate who is under the radar, in a race that or may not actually exist: Houston mayor Bill White, who is raising for a hypothetical special election for a seat vacated by Kay Bailey Hutchison. (UPDATE: Former Texas comptroller and fellow imaginary senate candidate John Sharp reported an even larger amount in receipts, although he gets an asterisk because $515K was contributions and the rest was self-loaned.)

It’s starting to look like the DCCC’s power-play of recruiting former Lt. Gov John Carney to run against Mike Castle for Delaware’s at-large House seat may be successful in pushing the aging incumbent out of the House — and possibly into the state’s open seat Senate race instead. From Roll Call:

Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) said Thursday that he’s leaning more toward running for Senate rather than another term in the House, if he decides to run for Congress again in 2010.

In an interview on Capitol Hill, Castle also acknowledged that several GOP Senators, including John McCain (Ariz.), have been pushing him in recent weeks to make the move to the other side of Capitol Hill. He said a final decision on his 2010 plans would likely have to come by early summer “at the latest.”

It seems that since Castle figures he’s going to get the race of his lifetime, he’s decided that if he’s going to run again in 2010 at all, he might as well go out with a bang by trying his hand at the Senate:

Castle said that he met last month with Carney, whom he considers a friend, and knew at that point that the former lieutenant governor was planning on jumping into the House race.

At that meeting Castle told Carney “there’s probably a better chance I’ll run for the Senate than the House. [But] I said there’s a chance I won’t run at all.”

While Castle believes he can beat Carney – a recent poll showed Castle winning a head-to-head contest – the Delaware Congressman said the race would represent his toughest challenge since his first election in 1992 against another former lieutenant governor, S.B. Woo (D).

While this news would seem to push DE-AL just shy of Joe Cao’s seat in Louisiana on the flip index, Castle’s entry in the Senate race would create an instantly competitive contest. A recent PPP poll had Castle leading Democrat Beau Biden by 44-36 for the open seat.

In other words, the DCCC’s gain could end up being the DSCC’s headache.

To help get these clowns out of Congress, chip in to help their eventual Democratic challengers.

And in other news, the sun came up this morning.

When I (James) went on MSNBC two weeks ago to talk about immigration reform, I didn’t think that I had anything that outlandish to say. Contessa Brewer, the daytime host, asked Republican strategist Ben Porrit and me if we thought we were going to get immigration reform passed and I said frankly that we won’t, because there is a segment of the Republican party that is racist and will stand in the way of real reform. Simple enough, right?

Well, after my turn at the 1:25 mark, when I said that within the Republican Party there is a segment of that group that is very anti-immigration, and essentially racist, Contessa and Ben reacted as though I had insulted one of their mothers (or both). When I finished, I immediately called Max Bernstein, who co-chairs dotPAC with me, to ask if I had said something really out of line because I got cut off and everyone had their mouths agape with shock that I could say such a thing. He certainly didn’t think so, and with good reason.

Yes, total shock at the idea that there is a racist segment of the Republican Party. The distribution of the Barack the Magic Negro song by a candidate for the RNC Chairmanship and former leader of the Tennessee Republican Party? The SoCal mayor who made and sent a postcard of the White House lawn with watermelons sprouted all over it? Macaca? The 24 hour news cycle makes for unbelievably short memories, clearly.

Those examples aside, there is a segment of the GOP that brings that attitude to the immigration debate, and it’s made up of House members, not the aforementioned marginal figures in the Party. To start, here’s Dana Rohrabacher, the Congressman from the pristine beach communities in Southern Los Angeles and Northern Orange County on Real Time with Bill Maher:

“ROHRABACHER: It’s bad for the American people to have so many people coming in from overseas, bidding down the wages of our average person, taking – and at the same time, a lot of employers aren’t giving the same kind of benefits. So we end up with less tax revenue. We end up with our education system under – collapsing under this pressure. Our health care system collapsing under the pressure.

MAHER: You’re blaming all that on the Mexicans?

ROHRABACHER: Yes, I am. Yes, I am.”

Next up, we have Houston congressman John Culberson. Culberson is known for being on the cutting edge of his use of technology and social networking, but when it comes to the viewpoint behind the tweeting and Qik-videoing, he falls somewhere between the age of internment camps and the McCarthy era. Observe:

“A concern that I continue to see is that a lot of those scientists from communist China, my impression is, and correct me if I am wrong, come here and learn as much as they can, and then leave. And I’m not really all that much into helping the communists figure out how to better target their intercontinental ballistic missiles at the United States. They basically steal our technology for military applications. And they are red China, let’s not forget.”

We can’t forget this one either:

“A large number of Islamic individuals have moved into homes in Nuevo Laredo and are being taught Spanish to assimilate with the local culture.”

The context here is how, to quote the Twittering idiot, “Al Qaeda terrorists and Chinese nationals are infiltrating our country virtually anywhere they choose from Brownsville to San Diego.” Yes John, those brown people just learn Spanish and all of a sudden no one can tell them apart, as they assimilate with the rest of the local brown culture.

Then we have James Sensenbrenner, who authored a piece of paranoid legislation that had it become law would have subjected all Hispanics in America to ritualistic profiling and relentless eligibility and citizenship tests in all aspects of their everyday lives. If you have 15 minutes and feel like losing your appetite, go read the bill.

And we can’t forget Michele Bachmann of Minnesota:

“One amendment [to a MN legislature budget] was offered that said that drivers license tests should be in English only, and that amendment failed. It’s an outrage, it’s unthinkable…”

Nevermind that this was in response to a tragic and fatal car accident where the perpetrator was an undocumented immigrant with a phony license, and having an English requirement for a drivers license would send the fake ID business through the roof. Bachmann’s unmatched abilities to match bigotry with mere poor logic were also on display last September when she plamed the entire subprime mortgage crisis on the fact that banks didn’t just stick to lending money to white folks.

So yes, Ben and Contessa. There is a segment of the Republican party that is clearly racist and will block real immigration reform by appealing to the xenophobic wing of their constituency that keeps them edging past their opponents every two years.

That’s why dotPAC is raising money for each of these bigots’ eventual Democratic challengers on ActBlue, and running ads in each of their districts on Facebook highlighting their indecency. Give a few bucks to the eventual Democratic nominees and show these bigots that they have no place in mainstream politics, let alone the halls of Congress.