Month: April 2009

Lean Independent:

     RI (Open)

Safe R:

     KS (Open)

     TN (Open)

     WY (Open)

2009 Final Ratings:

     Tossup: NJ (Corzine)

     Likely R: VA (Open)

Last Updated: November 1, 2010 at 12:00 PM

Previous Ratings

• MO-Sen: After last week announcing that she was “in no hurry” to begin her campaign for the GOP nomination in the Missouri senate race, former treasurer Sarah Steeleman has done an about-face and is setting up her exploratory committee right away. Apparently she’s striking while the iron is hot (i.e. while everyone is suddenly second-guessing Roy Blunt). She’s enlisting Ben Ginsberg, GOP beltway power-broker and fixer extraordinaire, to help. (H/t ccharles000.)

• CO-Sen: Ken Buck, the Weld County District Attorney and an immigration hard-liner, has, as expected, formally announced his candidacy for the Colorado senate seat held by appointee Michael Bennet. He’ll face Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier, and possibly ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez, in the GOP primary.

• NV-Sen: As the GOP searches for a dark-horse opponent to Harry Reid, they could go two routes: go with an underfunded conservative activist who can mobilize the boots on the ground (see Sharron Angle), or go with some self-funding rich guy nobody’s heard of who can saturate the race with money. The latter option has materialized, in the form of Wall Street investment banker John Chachas, who’s been meeting with party leaders. There are two slight problems: one, the nation’s ire toward all things Wall Street, and two, that Chachas is a New York resident who hasn’t lived in Nevada since high school.

• MN-Sen: Even polite, stoic Minnesotans have only a finite amount of patience. A new Star-Tribune poll finds that 64% think Norm Coleman should concede right now, and only 28% consider his appeal to the Minnesota Supreme Court “appropriate.” 73% think he should pack it in if he loses in front of the state supreme court.

• NY-Sen: Kirsten Gillibrand has her first official primary opponent. It’s not Steve Israel, it’s not Carolyn Maloney… it’s Scott Noren, an oral surgeon and “fiscally conservative” Dem from Ithaca who’s urging supporters to “donate modestly.” Uh huh. Good luck with that.

• Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania Democratic chair T.J. Rooney has a simple goal: to “come together as a party” and have no primary fights in 2010. Uh huh. Good luck with that.

• TX-Gov, TX-AG: Former Travis County DA Ronnie Earle (otherwise known as the guy who secured the indictment of Tom DeLay) tells the Austin American-Statesman that he is considering a statewide run, for either governor or attorney general. (J)

• WA-03: A Republican candidate against Rep. Brian Baird has already announced: financial advisor David Castillo. He’s never held elective office, but was a deputy assistant secretary at the Bush administration VA, and ran state senator Don Benton’s 1998 campaign against Baird. This district’s PVI is ‘even,’ and Baird routinely wins with over 60%. (UPDATE: Uh huh. Good luck with that.)

• WA-08: One question that’s been on the lips of the blogosphere lately is: where in the world is Darcy Burner? It’s been tweeted about for a while but now it’s been made official: she’s going to DC to be executive director of the American Progressive Caucus Policy Foundation (the ideas arm of the Congressional Progressive Caucus). With fellow MSFT vet Suzan DelBene in the 2010 race already, this seems to indicate Burner won’t be making a third attempt at WA-08.

As was the case with INDIANA and OHIO, I have now completed a massive county-by-county study of the results of the GE 2008 for VIRGINIA.

President Obama, who won the Commonwealth of Virginia with a +6.30% margin, was the first Democratic candidate to win this state since 1964 and the second Democratic candidate to win since 1948. Of note: VIRGINIA and COLORADO, both Democratic pick-ups in 2008, are the no. 1 and 2 states that came closest to Obama’s national winning margin; VIRGINIA went „blue” for slightly less than the national margin while COLORADO went for President Obama with slightly more than the national margin. It is rare when an unexpected battleground state flips and also mirrors the national numbers, but even rarer when this happens with two such states. Note also that these two states are in completely different regions of the Union, more proof that the GE 2008 was a so-called “re-alignment election”.

In a nutshell:

1.) Obama set a new VIRGINIA raw vote record for a candidate of any party: 1,959,932 votes, 242,573 votes more than Bush’s record-breaking raw vote from 2004. This is also the largest increase in votes for one party from one cycle the the next in VA history; the Democratic party added 504,790 votes to it’s total over 2004. Incidentally, McCain also did better than Bush (2004) in VIRGINIA: he bested Bush’s PV take by 8,046 votes. However, the ratio of the democratic vote increase over the GOP vote increase was 63.74 to 1! The popular vote growth rate for VIRGINIA was 16.91%.

2.) Obama won VIRGINIA with the 11th largest winning percent, the 11th largest winning margin, the 4th largest state partisan shift and the 4th largest Partisan Value* in US history for a Democratic candidate. Of the 14 Democratic winning cycles in VIRGINIA, this puts Obama roughly in the middle of the standings. That 4th largest partisan-shift, by the way, is larger than Johnson’s from 1964. You have to go back to 1912 to find a Democratic partisan shift in VA larger than this one. The dynamics of President Obama’s win in VIRGINIA are very, very different than in the other two states (IN, OH); this information is critical and has far reaching ramifications for both the Democrats and the GOP in future elections. For this reason, I’ve done such an analysis.

*Partisan Value = the difference between the state partisan shift and the national partisan shift. For instance, the partisan shift in Virginia was +14.50%, while the national partisan shift was +9.73%, which means that Virginia was +4.77% stronger than the national pull toward the democratic party in 2008.

I’ve divided the information into three parts, and that data is in the extended text.  

In Part I, there is important background information on Virginia, including details on the 14 DEM election cycles where a democratic candidate won the state.  Also in Part I is the general overview of the county-wide results. You can link via Google Docs.

Part II contains a very large, detailed and enhanced (in comparison to the analyses of INDIANA and OHIO) table of the 134 counties/independent cities in Virginia, first by descending partisan shift and an analysis of the partisan shift ranges, and then by county size (% of the 2008 statewide popular vote), descending. Harrisburg (independent city), Fairfax and Buchanan counties are used as a prime examples of how Obama won Virginia, even through counties where he lost. We also see statistical proof of the “appalachian phenomenon” in the southwest part of the state. You can link via Google Docs.

Part III is an analysis of the democratic pick-up counties and also of the “tipping-point” counties, including some colorful maps. The conclusion draws pointed differences between Obama’s historic win in Virginia and his wins in Indiana and Ohio (quoted also below). You can link via Google Docs.

Auxiliary sources:

I took the county-wide raw data for the entire state for both 2008 and 2004 and plugged it into an excel spreadsheet, which you can find here. Subsidiary data for all 134 counties/independent cities in VIRGINIA can be found here. Should you have difficulty calling up the spreadsheet, if you email me, I can send you a copy.

—————————————————————————————————————

Here a full quote from the conclusion:

“In INDIANA, every single county trended more or less democratic, without exception – there was a blue shift that moved the entire state and those overwhelmingly white, rural counties contributed greatly to Obama’s narrow win here – yes, the counties that he still lost to McCain. This shows a large level of GOP defection to Obama in 2008. Here, Obama gained 405,028 raw votes over Kerry from 2004, while McCain lost 133,790 raw votes over Bush from 2004, an uneven shift. Indiana’s PV growth rate over 2004 was 11.47%. And Obama won by +1.03%.

In OHIO, not every county trended democratic (11 trended GOP), but there were no GOP county pick-ups. Also, in Ohio, the largest cities, all five of them, played the crucial role in moving the state into the democratic column and those overwhelmingly white, rural counties contributed very little to Obama’s narrow win, in contrast to INDIANA. Surely there were some moderate GOP defections, but there were also a moderate amount of newly registered voters. Here, Obama gained 198,877 raw votes over Kerry’s total from 2004, while McCain lost 181,948 raw votes over Bush’s total from 2004, a moderate mirror image shift. Ohio’s PV growth rate over 2004 was a nominal 1.36%, way under the national PV growth rate of 7.46%. And Obama won by +4.58%.

However, in VIRGINIA, there was real resistance to Obama, but this resistance occured in counties that are „emptying out”, so to speak. We see a large poli-demographic shift in VA, with the north and the southeast gaining greatly in political strength for the democratic party. Here there were obviously far fewer GOP defections, if at all (McCain scored more raw votes in VA than Bush from 2004), but far more newly registered and democratic dedicated voters. This poses a far larger problem for the GOP than either Indiana or Ohio, for Obama’s +1.03% margin in Indiana can be overcome and Ohio is expected to be a battleground state in virtually every cycle, but the addition of more then 500,000 voters to the democratic rolls in just one cycle is much harder for the opposition to overcome. The best case scenario for the GOP is that VIRGINIA becomes a bitter battleground state. However, +6.30% is hardly a battleground margin. It is a better margin than Obama scored in OHIO, FLORIDA, INDIANA and NORTH CAROLINA. It is a lean winning margin, but a comfortable one and will require a minimum 12.60% shift back in order for the GOP to regain the state; I doubt that this shift will come from those 500,000 new voters. The worst case scenario for the GOP is that Obama cements VIRGINIA into the democratic column in his first term, adding the state to core democratic territory and thus making the electoral math for the GOP more difficult.”

I am now on Episode 10 of my redistricting series, if you can believe it! Tonight we cover Colorado and Minnesota. I drew two maps for Minnesota — one if the Republicans hold Tim Pawlenty’s governorship in 2010, and the other if Democrats manage a gerrymandering monopoly. (The Dems have solid state legislative majorities, so that element seems set in stone.)

Previous efforts:

Diary 1: Massachusetts and Texas

Diary 2: Michigan and Nevada

Diary 3: Iowa and Ohio

Diary 4: Georgia and New Jersey

Diary 5: Florida and Louisiana

Diary 6: Pennsylvania and Utah

Diary 7: Illinois and South Carolina

Diary 8: Indiana, Missouri, and Oregon

Diary 9: Alabama, Arizona, and Kentucky

Jump below, if and only if you dare!

Colorado

The process here is fairly straightforward. Whether Democrats hold their current monopoly in 2010 or lose the governor’s mansion (the state legislature seems locked-in), incumbent protection will be the name of the game, aimed especially at solidifying Democratic Reps. Betsy Markey and John Salazar (most pointedly the former). Democrats would be foolish to try for a 6-1 majority and no one seems to think they’ll try it.

My map definitely solidified Markey without hurting DeGette, Polis, or Perlmutter, but it didn’t go as far as I hoped in protecting Salazar (my 3rd remains quite rural and is more of a swing district, but far from strongly Dem-leaning). Given the need to dole out favorable Denver suburbs to Polis, Perlmutter, and Markey, there’s little Denver-area turf left to give Salazar. What to do?

District 1 – Diana DeGette (D-Denver) — all of Denver and 19% of Arapahoe preserves a solidly liberal district.

District 2 – Jared Polis (D-Boulder) — it may look rural and Rocky-heavy on the map, but the population anchors are Boulder County, which is kept whole, and Adams County, of which 35% is included. Less strongly Dem than before, but still plenty safe, with a moderate-liberal bent.

District 3 – John Salazar (D-Manassa) — my disappointment is that I only moved the needle a couple points in Obama’s direction here. It’s still very rural, and competitive in an open seat situation. There are big pockets of population in Grand Junction, Pueblo, and Jefferson County.

District 4 – Betsy Markey (D-Fort Collins) — New and improved for enhanced Democratic performance! 100% of Larimer, 65% of Adams, and 53% of Weld make for a safe district.

District 5 – Doug Lamborn (R-Colorado Springs) — meant to pack Republicans tightly.

District 6 – Mike Coffman (R-Littleton) — ditto in that this low-elevation “Colokansas” district packs GOP votes efficiently. I did cause some mischief by putting Coffman’s home in the 7th.

District 7 – Ed Perlmutter (D-Golden) — decidedly Democratic suburban Denver seat comprising half of Arapahoe and 80% of Jefferson.

Minnesota

This is the first state for which I drew two maps, one a Dem gerrymander and the other a bipartisan compromise map. Since Minnesota is expected to lose a seat for a new total of seven, there were some key differences in how I handled the dropped district (as well as how I drew the urban/suburban Twin Cities seats). Collin Peterson’s new 6th and Jim Oberstar’s new 7th are configured similarly in both maps, with Oberstar’s diluted a bit and Peterson’s shored up a tad to create two mildly Dem-friendly rural districts (though Peterson’s is still tough, especially with its geographical identity changing as population loss forces it to leech toward the Iowa border!).

I will run through the bipartisan map first since Republicans currently hold the gov’s mansion:

District 1 – Tim Walz (D-Mankato) vs. John Kline (R-Lakeville) — honestly, Walz vs. Kline was the only logical, not-too-awkward bipartisan incumbent showdown I could seem to configure. This district would be more or less evenly divided in partisan performance and evenly weighted in population between Walz’s southern base and Kline’s exurban territory.

District 2 – Erik Paulsen (R-Eden Prairie) — this map being the bipartisan variation, Paulsen gets a clearly more Republican district comprising Anoka County, 35% of Hennepin, and 26% of Carver.

District 3 – Betty McCollum (D-St. Paul) — anchored in Ramsey County, safely Democratic.

District 4 – Keith Ellison (D-Minneapolis) — 65% of Hennepin County, and that’s it, for a mostly urban Minneapolis district.

District 5 – Michele Bachmann (R-Stillwater) — I wanted to soak up all the Republicans I could find (and Bachmann will need them if she keeps up this way).

District 6 – Collin Peterson (D-Detroit Lakes) — how to protect Peterson without giving Oberstar an untenable district? Knowing the district would have to extend south, I tried to improve the PVI a bit by taking some rural Dem counties from his neighbor, but not move the needle too dramatically as that would jeopardize the esteemed Transportation & Infrastructure Committee Chairman.

District 7 – Jim Oberstar (D-Chisholm) — more of a swing district than before; Oberstar would be safe but Dems would have to fight for this as an open seat. Is it worth shoring up Peterson’s seat at the cost of making this one equally swingy? I’m no longer convinced.

Overall summary: two safe Dem seats (McCollum and Ellison), two relatively safe GOP seats (Paulsen and Bachmann), two swing seats that would remain safe for their current Dem incumbents (Peterson and Oberstar), one battleground (Walz v. Kline in the 1st).

And now, the hypothetical Democratic gerrymander should luck break our way in the governor’s race (and that certainly didn’t happen in 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, or 2006, but I suppose the DFL is overdue for some good fortune in this given area):

The two North Country districts certainly don’t look much different, but the other five, I think, would be quite altered under a Democratic plan.

District 1 – Tim Walz (D-Mankato) — this version mostly steers clear of the Twin Cities area and is heavier in small towns and southern counties that know and like Walz. I can’t knowledgeably estimate the presidential numbers here, but assume Obama would have still won, as I pointedly tried to avoid weakening Walz for other Democrats’ benefit.

District 2 – John Kline (R-Lakeville) vs. Michele Bachmann (R-Stillwater) — yay, a chance to eliminate Bachmann! Except that, based purely on factors of geography, media coverage, and name recognition, Bachmann would have a good fighting chance in a Republican primary here. Oh well, at least it’s an eliminated GOP seat.

District 3 – Erik Paulsen (R-Eden Prairie) — given how hard it will be to shore up Collin Peterson land without undermining Oberstar’s Iron Range seat, you can bet the Democrats would milk the Twin Cities for every vote they’re worth, and that means messing with Paulsen. Here his district comprises 58% of Anoka, 20% of Dakota, and 42% of Hennepin, for a moderately Dem-leaning/Obama-friendly suburban seat.

District 4 – Betty McCollum (D-St. Paul) — Give and take, give and take. So the 4th gets diluted a bit as it suburbanizes; it’s still plenty solid, but doesn’t waste votes as before.

District 5 – Keith Ellison (D-Minneapolis) — extends into Anoka County to hurt Paulsen but remains liberal and overwhelmingly Democratic.

District 6 – Collin Peterson (D-Detroit Lakes) — not a heck of a lot different than in the bipartisan map.

District 7 – Jim Oberstar (D-Chisholm) — ditto.

This map only includes one super-safe GOP seat, two very safe Dem seats, three swing seats that would be strong for their Dem incumbents (Walz, Peterson, Oberstar), and one swing seat that would be vulnerable to ousting its GOP incumbent (Paulsen).

Thoughts on either state are much appreciated!

James and I got into an extended discussion last night about the many virtues of hummus, so we thought, why not an open thread about snack foods? Just please, please don’t play to stereotype and tell us that you love to eat Cheetos in your mom’s basement.

It’s over:

The NY-20 special election is now officially over, with Democrat Scott Murphy the winner.

GOP candidate Jim Tedisco, who trailed by 401 votes as of yesterday’s vote count, has called Murphy to concede, according to Murphy spokesman Ryan Rudominer.

Congratulations, Representative-elect Murphy. An awesome win.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (4/20-22, registered voters, no trendlines). First up, the gubernatorial race:

Tom Schieffer (D): 37

Rick Perry (R-inc): 52

Undecided: 11

Tom Schieffer (D): 35

Kay Bailey Hutchison(R): 57

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±4%)

Tom Schieffer’s favorables are at 26-11, Rick Perry’s at 51-43 and KBH’s 64-29. Obviously we’ll want to face Perry if we hope to have much if any chance here. But even though R2K didn’t test the Republican primary, the favorability ratings among the GOP show what other polls have – KBH soars at 86-8 among members of her own party, while Perry sits back at a 76-19 rating. Still, I’m not willing to write Perry off for dead just yet.

And the Senate race:

John Sharp (D): 36

Greg Abbott (R): 43

John Sharp (D): 37

David Dewhurst (R): 44

John Sharp (D): 37

Michael Williams (R): 34

John Sharp (D): 37

Florence Shapiro (R): 33

Bill White (D): 36

Greg Abbott (R): 42

Bill White (D): 37

David Dewhurst (R): 43

Bill White (D): 38

Michael Williams (R): 34

Bill White (D): 38

Florence Shapiro (R): 33

(MoE: ±4%)

As you can see, it doesn’t much seem to matter who is paired against whom – the two Dems pull 36-38, while the better-known Rs (Abbott and Dewhurst) get 42-44 and the lesser-knowns (Williams and Shapiro) take 33-34. And this race, of course, might not ever happen, or at least, might not happen for a long time.

You probably also saw the delightful finding that fully half of Texas Republicans want Texas to be an independent nation, and more than half approve of Perry’s secessionist comments. Maybe he’s found a winning campaign issue! Anyhow, who wants to help `em pack?