Month: June 2009

I thought even before the primary that a Deeds win would get us a nice post-primary bump in general election trial heat polling, and that bump is happening a little faster than I imagined!  More below the jump.

Rasmussen has Deeds up 47-41 on the strength of Democratic unity.  McDonnell has the edge among independents, but only with a 43-36 plurality as but 16% of them are undecided.  Only 4% of Dems are undecided with Deeds picking up 89%, and Repugs have 11% undecided with 9% going to Deeds.

Another key demographic is that Deeds trails 49-36 among white voters with 12% undecided and 3% saying they’ll vote for “some other candidate,” although almost all of that 3% will end up choosing between the 2 so that the true undecided whites are 15%.  In Virginia about 40% of the white vote means a Democratic victory in a Governor’s race, so Deeds sitting at 36% with another 15% still persuadable puts him in a great position for victory.

Yes, yes, it’s early, and anything can happen, so this poll isn’t to be relied on too strongly……I’m a campaigns junkie and I know all that.

But the fact is this poll does mean something, that this race is winnable, and McDonnell no longer can be called “the frontrunner” as he was legitimately called in the pre-primary stretch.

It’s a toss-up at worst for us.

I voted for Deeds in the primary thinking he was the only one of the 3 who could beat McDonnell, and today that seems more true than ever.

Creigh’s top responsibilities for the next few weeks need to be fundraising and outreach to minority voters, especially blacks but also Hispanics and Asians.  I hope he raises the cash he needs this time, as he failed to do 4 years ago vs. McDonnell in the A.G. race.

The consensus is Nevada will have 4 congressional districts after 2010. Here is what it may look like:

Las Vegas area:

#	map	incumbent	White	Hispanic	Black	Asian	Native	Other
1	Blue	no incumbent	29.50%	49.22%	13.74%	5.94%	0.52%	2.08%
2	Green	Shelley Berkley	61.75%	17.47%	8.19%	9.23%	0.59%	2.76%
3	Purple	Dina Titus	67.84%	16.42%	5.40%	6.82%	1.01%	2.51%
4	Red	Dean Heller	70.47%	19.72%	1.89%	3.92%	2.08%	1.91%

A VRA-Hispanic district in Nevada would have been unthinkable 20 years ago but it looks likely in 2010. The fastest-growing demographic in America will almost certainly reach 50% of the 1st district in time for the 2010 census. (hence the title)

The 3rd district, despite its appearance, is mostly an urban-suburban district surrounding Las Vegas. 87% of its population is in Clark County. Most of the existing 3rd district (the propeller, represented by Dina Titus) is in the proposed 3rd district.



The propeller does lose some of its inner parts, possibly its most liberal parts, to the new 2nd district. But by then Dina Titus will have had 4 years to become popular and entrenched, and the Las Vegas region will have had 4 years to become even more liberal. Dina Titus, or whoever represents this district, will have to make some occasional obligatory appearances in the far-flung parts of this district.

Why Chruchill County? Because it had the right number of people. It was the only way to get population equality without dividing any northern counties. Churchill looks like it belongs in the 4th district. In order to do that I could either put part of Elko in the 3rd, or put all of Elko in the 3rd and part of Nye in the 4th.

Any information about what features are in what district (casinos, brothels, Yucca Mountain, Area 51, etc) is welcome in the comments.

So I’m going to Bonnaroo tomorrow and I found this gem on a Bonnaroo forum.

From: Carl Mumpower, Asheville City Council

To: Gary Jackson, Asheville City Manager

Subject: Observations of Phish Concert as Asheville Civic Center

Mr. Jackson,

I just left the Phish Concert at the Civic Center and wanted to share my experience there.

…

Tonight, Asheville’s Civic Center smelled more like City Hall than an Amsterdam hash house.

Many thanks,

Carl Mumpower

Asheville City Council

Here’s the complete letter he wrote. I’m guessing “No No Word” means pot.

http://bonnaroo.proboards.com/…

Public Policy Polling:

Artur Davis (D): 35

Bradley Byrne (R): 39

Artur Davis (D): 39

Kay Ivey (R): 31

Artur Davis (D): 37

Tim James (R): 35

Artur Davis (D): 41

Roy Moore (R): 38

Ron Sparks (D): 27

Bradley Byrne (R): 41

Ron Sparks (D): 33

Kay Ivey (R): 29

Ron Sparks (D): 32

Tim James (R): 32

Ron Sparks (D): 36

Roy Moore (R): 38

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Artur Davis begins the 2010 gubernatorial race with some impressive numbers, especially compared to state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks. Tom Jensen offers an explanation:

There’s not much doubt the black vote is the reason Davis is polling so much better than Sparks. For instance, against Byrne, Davis holds a 58-point lead with that demographic, 68-10. But Sparks has just an 18 point advantage at 38-20. Sparks actually gets slightly more support from white voters than Davis in all of the possible matches.

It raises the question, then: do these numbers represent something close to a high-water mark for Davis in a general election? While Davis has consolidated a good deal of support from the African-American community already, most of the remaining undecided voters are whites — a notoriously difficult voting bloc for any Democrat in Alabama to crack.

Quinnipiac (6/2-7, registered voters, 4/6-13 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 18 (16)

Corrine Brown (D): 12 (NA)

Ron Klein (D): 8 (8)

Don’t Know: 57 (53)

Charlie Crist (R): 54 (54)

Marco Rubio (R): 23 (8)

Don’t Know: 21 (25)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Not much new here to see from Quinnipiac, in their bi-monthly poll of the Florida senate primary fields, despite a lot of happenings (most notably, of course, the idea of Charlie Crist getting into the Senate race was still kind of a hazy daydream in April). As we saw in the recent Strategic Vision poll, Marco Rubio has consolidated most of the anti-Crist voters who were dispersed among Vern Buchanan, Allen Bense, and other non-candidates… but he’s still in a deep hole. Crist also has 62/28 approval.

On the Democratic side, the potential entry of Rep. Corrine Brown (who’s now exploring the race, despite the fact that Meek has a huge head-start in fundraising and endorsements) doesn’t seem to eat into Rep. Kendrick Meek’s support. Oddly, Brown’s presence seems to increase the number of undecideds, although that’s probably due to the disappearance of Tampa mayor Pam Iorio (who was at 16% in April). (This poll also contains Rep. Ron Klein, who has made it clear he won’t be running.)

• HI-Gov: Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann looks like he’ll be running against Rep. Neil Abercrombie for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination; he launched an exploratory committee yesterday. Hannemann and Abercrombie actually faced off once before; Hannemann defeated Abercrombie in the 1986 primary for HI-01 (but lost the general to GOPer Pat Saiki). Either one would seem to have an edge over Republican Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona in the general, based on the state’s lean, although Aiona’s fundraising has been impressive so far.

• NJ-Gov: Quinnipiac may be finding a bit of a post-primary bounce for Republican challenger Chris Christie; he leads Jon Corzine 50-40 in their newest poll. (Last month was 45-38 for Christie, although this poll is a switch from registered voters to likely voters.) Corzine’s favorables are his worst-ever at 35-53; Christie’s are 36-16, but with 46% “haven’t heard enough,” allowing some room for Corzine to define him if he hits hard with his new ad blitz.

• NY-Gov: How’s this for an unsurprising headline: “Poll Finds Paterson Deeply Unpopular.” The NYT polled Paterson’s favorables (no head-to-heads, though) and found that Paterson has an approval of 21%, compared to a finding of 26% approval of ex-Gov. Eliot Spitzer in the same poll.

• MN-Gov: CQ comes the closest I’ve seen to consolidating the name of every single person planning to run for Minnesota governor in one place. I count 10 Democrats and 11 Republicans, which I won’t bother trying to reproduce here.

• IN-08: Rep. Brad Ellsworth finally has a Republican opponent, auto worker Dan Stockton. Stockton hasn’t held office, but he is active in community theater and “heavily involved in motorcycle rights.” Well, I’m glad someone is willing to take a courageous stand for those oppressed motorcycles.

• MD-01: State Sen. Andy Harris may not get a clear path to the GOP nomination in his rematch with Rep. Frank Kratovil. State Sen. E.J. Pipkin is considering a face off with Harris again in the primary. (Pipkin finished third in the 2008 primary, getting 20% of the vote to 43 for Harris and 33 for then-Rep. Wayne Gilchrest. In fact, Pipkin may have thrown the election to BaltCo resident Harris, by vacuuming up more conservative votes on the Eastern Shore that may have otherwise gone to Gilchrest on the basis of geography.) Pipkin has the advantage of self-funding; he spent $2 million of his own money en route to racking up 34% against Sen. Barb Mikulski in 2004. While Pipkin isn’t as conservative as Club for Growth favorite Harris, he isn’t as moderate as Gilchrest. Other Republicans interested in the primary include Anne Arundel County Exec John Leopold and former state House minority leader Al Redmer.

• NH-02: The field to replace Rep. Paul Hodes got a third Dem contestant: former state Senator Mark Fernald got into the race yesterday. Fernald may retain a bit of name rec from his 2002 loss in the governor’s race (he lost to Craig Benson, who then lost in 2004 to John Lynch).

• NY-23: One GOPer is already launching his “campaign” for the nomination to replace John McHugh (in the sense that he’s publicly saying that he’s going around and talking to the right kingmakers on all the county party committees). It’s a guy who wasn’t on anybody’s list: Franklin County legislator Paul Maroun, whose day job is counsel to state Senator Betty Little (who doesn’t sound likely to run, especially since she lives in NY-20).

• Census: We’re less than a year away from the 2010 Census, and we’re still short a Census director, as the GOP has put a mystery hold on Obama’s nominee for the job, Robert Groves. The Census is also facing an appropriations fight in coming weeks, as it requested a 135% increase in funding for next year (seeing as how 2010 is the year when it does most of its work, but try explaining that to a Republican). A leaderless, underfunded Census isn’t likely to put together an accurate count, and an inaccurate count is likely to undercount traditionally Democratic harder-to-count groups.

• DC Voting Rights: The bill to give the District of Columbia a fully functioning representative in the U.S. House (and give an extra seat to Utah, increasing the size of the House to 437 and the Electoral College to 539) seems to be stalled for now, according to Steny Hoyer. Nobody seems to know how to get around the GOP-added poison pill attached to it that will strip DC’s gun laws, so it’s just going to sit.

The Swing State Project is changing ratings on five different gubernatorial races, three of which favor Dems and two of which favor the GOP. We’re also republishing our full race rating chart. As always, you can find our perma-post here.

Races to Watch:

     AK (Palin)

     CT (Rell)

     IA (Culver)

     IL (Quinn)

     NY (Paterson)

     TX (Perry)

     UT (Herbert)

     VT (Douglas)

Georgia (Open): Likely R to Lean R

With former Gov. Roy Barnes’ entrance into the race, this contest just became very interesting. Two different surveys (Insider Advantage and Research 2000) have shown Barnes in a good position against a range of possible Republican candidates. Barnes first has to navigate the Dem primary (where Attorney General Thurbert Baker & House Minority Leader DuBose Porter present formidable obstacles), though the only primary poll to date shows him with a big lead, and he may yet clear the field. This race is likely to become more competitive rather than less so as time progresses.

Iowa (Culver): Safe D to RTW

While we haven’t seen any head-to-head polling in Iowa yet this year, Gov. Chet Culver’s approvals have started to head southward, according to both SurveyUSA and the Des Moines Register. Meanwhile, the GOP appears to have netted a relatively non-crazy candidate, former state House Speaker Chris Rants. Are we really worried about Culver’s prospects? No – or at least, not yet. But with so many incumbent governors taking scorching heat for the brutal economy, this race bears watching.

Massachusetts (Patrick): RTW to Likely D

Most other folks with poll numbers as lousy as Deval Patrick’s would be in a lot more trouble than this. Luckily, he’s running for re-election in Massachusetts. Still, Kwik-E-Mart magnate Christy Mihos, who garnered 7% of the vote as an independent in 2006, is seeking a rematch, and he got more money than Picasso got paint. It’s enough to give Patrick serious headaches.

Minnesota (Open): Lean R to Tossup

Even if Tim Pawlenty had decided to seek re-election, this race likely would have reached Tossup status at some point. But with T-Paw busy checking out the color of his parachute, the timetable’s accelerated. The field is very much in flux on both sides, but if anything, Dems will have a slight edge just given the blue background hue of this state.

Vermont (Douglas): Safe R to RTW

We aren’t getting excited about the possibility of chucking out Republican Jim Douglas just yet. But the Dems have a better slate of potential candidates (including Lt. Gov. Doug Racine and Secretary of State Deb Markowitz) than they have in the past, and Douglas is facing his first election in hard times. He’s started to get dinged on some local issues, and of course had a high-profile defeat on gay marriage. And a January R2K poll showed him with a not-so-hot 52-41 approval rating. The key here will be Vermont’s left-wing Progressive Party; if they hold their fire, then a Democrat could do some real damage.

First off, as always, thanks to everyone who participated in the Swing State Project’s VA-Gov Dem primary predictions contest. Fifty-seven folks submitted guesses, and what’s particularly awesome is that the skunkworks down at SSP Labs shows we have a flat-out tie for first place! Congratulations to RedefiningForm and stevenaxelrod, who both had winning scores of just four points – you each get half a loaf! Just kidding… send me an email and a super-mega-delicious Green’s babka will be on its way to each of you shortly.

The actual final results were Deeds 50, McAuliffe 26, Moran 24. For the record, here were the winning guesses, along with the average for all of SSP:

RedefiningForm:

Deeds: 48

McAuliffe: 26

Moran: 26

stevenaxelrod:

Deeds: 48

McAuliffe: 27

Moran: 25

SSP Median

Deeds: 41.1

McAuliffe: 31.7

Moran: 26.7

If you want to see exactly how you did, please click here. If you aren’t going to be the recipient of tasty babka, please try again next time (or treat yourself!). Thanks again to all, and congrats once more to the winners!

Well, it looks like we get to take a jenga break a bit early tonight. We thought we’d open up the floor to what surely is topic #1: how did Creigh Deeds win? And looking forward, what does he need to do to win again in the fall? Please share your thoughts in comments.

UPDATE: In some not-so-great news, it looks like Democrats have decisively lost the race to hold on to Rep. Parker Griffith’s state Senate seat in Alabama.

Polls close at 7:00pm Eastern in Virginia, and we’ll be using this thread to track the returns in the state’s hotly-contested Democratic gubernatorial primary.

RESULTS: VA SBoE | Associated Press (by county)

8:24PM: Deep Thoughts: Think T-Mac wants his $6.9 mil back? Think Brian Schweitzer wants his endorsement back? (Hey Brian, I hope you can clean the egg off your bolo tie.)

8:08PM: The AP has called this race for Deeds! Woo-hoo! What a tremendous result.

7:57PM: 1491 precincts in (close to 60% of the vote), and Deeds has 50.2% of the vote — it’s pretty clear that he’s going to be the Democratic nominee. The only question now is who’ll end up in second place: McAuliffe (currently at 26%) or Moran (24%). In the Lt. Governor’s race, Jody Wagner has the nomination locked.

7:44PM: 1001 precincts now in, and Deeds is holding onto 50.5%. Across the board, he’s pulling in an impressive share of the vote, especially in NoVA; just check out the Fairfax returns to see what I mean. Go Creigh!

7:36PM: 623 precincts in, and Deeds is looking hot: 51% to McAuliffe’s 25 and Moran’s 24. Check out the early returns in VA-10 and VA-11 — Creigh is destroying the competition so far.

7:31PM: 324 precincts in (13% of the vote) and it’s Deeds 53, T-Mac 24, and Moran 23. Check Arlington again — Deeds is over 50% there. Deeds has also taken the lead from McAuliffe in VA-04, and is leading the very early VA-11 returns.

7:23PM: 123 precincts now in, and Deeds is still in charge at 52%, but Moran has now slipped into second place at 25 (McAuliffe’s lagging at 23%). Here’s something interesting: check out Arlington County, where you might expect Moran to be performing well. But it’s Deeds who’s leading the pack there (albeit with only 2 of 52 precincts in): Deeds at 47% and Moran at 34%. So far, so good for Deeds in NoVA.

7:15PM: 61 precincts in, and it’s Deeds 55, T-Mac 23, and Moran 22. Votes are trickling in from every Congressional District in the state except for the 2nd and the 11th, and so far, Deeds is winning all of them except for the 3rd and 4th (McAuliffe) and the 8th (Moran).

7:11PM: 20 precincts in (of 2504), and Deeds leads T-Mac by 67%-18%, with Moran at 14%.

7:07PM ET: Polls are now closed, and a lone precinct is reporting 7 votes for Deeds, 4 for T-Mac. This precinct is in Southwest Virginia, so Deeds’ early strength is to be expected. If this primary follows the normal pattern of Virginia elections, vote-rich Northern VA will report last — so hold off on the champagne for now.