Month: June 2009

Former Governor Roy Barnes is set to announce that he will be entering the 2010 race for GA Governor today according to a report by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. This is a huge development for Democrats as it signals the entrance of their highest profile bench player.

Barnes, the GA Governor from 1999-2003, has shown fantastic fundraising prowess in the past and has the greatest name identification of any of the Democrats now in the running.Allies of his such as Attorney General Thurbert Baker and to a lesser extent State Democratic House Leader Dubose Porter may reassess their options now that Barnes entered the race but former GA National Guard leader David Poythress, who has traded barbs with Barnes already is unlikely to make a move thinking apparently he can carry the anti-Barnes banner the furthest. 

Certainly some advantages and disadvantages to this move by Barnes but I think it's good for Democrats to have a proven leader back at the top of ticket who can raise major cash. However, 2002 must serve as a lesson to Barnes and others about the cost of becoming too assured of one's perceived success and that a great ground game operation must be in place in order to assure turnout of Democratic voters in a midterm election. I feel Barnes, who I've met and who is a very bright and capable leader can learn from these mistake though and run a very effective race in 2010 if current polling numbers are any indication.

 

Lot of NY-23 stuff to talk about. First up, the timing of the actual election. Hotline sez ($):

NY Board of Elections spokesperson John Conklin writes, if the vacancy happens soon, Gov. David Paterson (D) has the option of calling a special, “and then everything happens the same way it did” in NY-20, with each party picking its candidates and the general election is scheduled 30-40 days from his proclamation. Paterson also has the option of scheduling the special during the fall of ’09, in which case there would be a primary and general.

There may be pressure on Paterson to wait until the fall to save the state money on a special election. However, that would mean NY-23 would go without representation for five months, which may be too long to be politically acceptable. If we do have a special, then the county chairs of the eleven counties which make up the 23rd will all have a say in who each party’s nominee is. Below is a chart of those counties, ranked by population  & including voter registration numbers (PDF):

Who might run – or get tapped? The list of potential names is getting longer. Culled from a variety of sources, so far on the GOP side we have:

• Assemb. Diedre “Dede” Scozzafava
• Assemb. Janet Duprey
• Assemb. Will Barclay
• Former state Sen. Ray Meier (who ran in NY-24 in 2006)
• Former state Sen. Jim Wright
• Businesswoman Kay Stafford
• McHugh Chief-of-Staff Robert Taub
• Franklin County DA Derek Champagne
• Essex County DA Julie Garcia
• Terry Gach, VP of a biomedical research institute
• Michael F. Joyce, owner of a yacht company

Please let it be the yacht guy. Of note, state Sen. Betty Little has already said no. As for the Dems:

• State Sen. Darrel J. Aubertine
• State Sen. David Valesky
• Assemb. Addie Jenne Russell
• Daniel J. French, a former Moynihan aide
• Michael P. Oot, the 2008 nominee
• State party Chairwoman June O’Neill
• John Rhodes, who weighed a 2008 run
• St. Lawrence County DA Nicole Duvé

Count me among those who do not want to see Dems risk our narrow-as-can-be majority in the state Senate in order to try picking up NY-23 – especially if, as some speculate, the district will be eliminated come 2012.

RESULTS: Associated Press (county-by-county results available here)

10:04PM (David): Thanks to diligent work and zero ganja breaks over at the New Jersey Board of Elections, the AP is now able to call the race for Chris Christie. Good luck, Mr. Corzine.

9:57PM (David): 53% of precincts are in, and Christie is up 55-42. In other words, Lonegan now has to do better than Christie has all night to eke out a win. Maybe Jon Corzine should have spent $10 mil on the GOP primary.

9:42PM: 2885 precincts in, and Christie has upped his lead to nearly 22K votes, but the percentage spread is still the same: 56-41. Corzine’s scraped his way up to 80%.

9:15PM: 1651 precincts in, and Christie is ahead by 56-41… or just under 13,000 votes. Corzine back up to 79%.

9:00PM: With 922 precincts under our belt, Christie’s lead has dropped ever-so-slightly to 57-40. Corzine at 76%.

8:45PM: 361 precincts now complete, and Christie is looking fairly comfortable at 59-39. Corzine’s up to 80%.

8:34PM: 139 precincts reporting (of 6302), and Christie is ahead, but by a slightly tighter margin: 60-38. Corzine’s at 79%.

8:11PM ET: Chris Christie has the very early lead in the GOP primary over Steven Lonegan with just a wheelbarrow-full of votes counted: 62%-35%. Anyone care to guess what share of the vote Jon Corzine will end up with against his three no-name challengers?

Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) (5/26-30, likely voters, early May in parens):

Dan Onorato (D): 29

Tom Corbett (R): 34

None/other: 4

Undecided: 32

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 46 (42)

Pat Toomey (R): 37 (36)

None/other: 4

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±3.7%)

This is the first poll I’ve seen of the Pennsylvania governor’s race; it’s from Susquehanna, a Republican pollster (this poll doesn’t seem to be taken on anyone’s behalf, although the early May Senate trendlines are from a poll on behalf of pro-business PEG PAC), so take with salt as needed. As expected, it shows a very tight race, giving a slight edge to Republican AG Tom Corbett over Democratic Allegheny County Exec Dan Onorato. With very high undecideds, a lot of this seems to be about name recognition, and Corbett benefits by being a statewide official.

But, looking at geographical crosstabs, Onorato performs very well where he’s well-known, giving him a lot of room to pull into the lead once he’s better known. While Corbett actually leads 28/27 in the Dem-leaning Philadelphia suburbs, Onorato leads 51/29 in the Pittsburgh area, which is where both Corbett and Onorato are from. Also, bear in mind that this may not be the matchup in November 2010; on the Democratic side, there’s also Auditor Jack Wagner (also from the Pittsburgh area), while for the GOP, there’s former US Attorney Pat Meehan and Rep. Jim Gerlach (both from the Philly burbs).

On the Senate front, no surprises: Arlen Specter leads ex-Rep. Pat Toomey by a comfortable but not huge margin of 9, up from a gap of 6 in the previous Susquehanna poll. The most recent Quinnipiac poll from last week, as well as a month-old POS poll, both found a 9-point spread as well (although R2K and a month-old Quinnipiac found the margin over 20).

The poll also took a subsample of Democrats, and while they inexplicably didn’t ask about the possible Specter/Joe Sestak matchup, they did ask whether should face a primary challenge to earn his rightful place in the party. Dems approved of the primary challenge, 63%-28%.

Now this is a clever idea:

The early-and-often assault on Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) continues today, as the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) launches the “Charlie Crist’s Scheduling Office” hotline.

Callers to 1-800-403-2195 will be treated to hold music while he scheduler tries to find Crist, reminders that Crist has missed 62 days of work, and invitations to schedule meetings with Crist on “big yachts” and “rubbing elbows” with celebrities.

Call the 800 number.  It’s really funny – and innovative.  (Hotline On Call has more.)

This time, we’ve got an internet application to play with.

The task of dividing Missouri into 8 districts with the population estimates is still a nightmare.

When it comes down to it, the best possible deal for an 8 district map is a 4/4 delegation split. Best possible, without a gerrymander. Currently the delegation is 5 Republicans/4 Democrats.

With all the momentum of under two hours of work, here’s an attempt to split the state into 8 districts with a 4/4 split.

First, the STL districts.

The 1st district (Blue): 738926 people, 45% white, 49% African-American

The 2nd district (Green): 738908 people

The 1st district walks a balance between helping the 2nd, and also keeping the legislators in that area happy enough to actually approve such a map. The 1st moves west into Maryland Heights and south in the city of St. Louis. Ideally, the district would still go 2 to 1 for Democrats, at the very least. A drop from 3 to 1, but still a good solid district. Here’s a before/after of the lines. Most of the tracts moving from the 1st to 2nd were coincidences from the tractpoking that was done to form the district.

The 2nd district includes the homes of Todd Akin and Russ Carnahan. The district also includes a chunk of Akin’s STL county district (except for Chesterfield). As well, a part of Jefferson County, and Russ’ South County district are in the district unsplit. Ideally the district would be 50/50.

As for the third district (pop. 738910)

Officially, this district is open. It combines Boone County, one of the emerging Democratic votegetting counties, with the rapidly blueing St. Charles county. Along with the I70 corridor and some other counties in the area.

Cole County is split with Jeff City in the 3rd and the rest of the county in the new 4th district. Franklin County’s split puts the northern part of the county in the 3rd and the southern in the 8th.

As for the 4th district.. it’s a sign of the ridiculous nature of the 4th that you can’t fit it into an image on the minimum zoom.

Yes, really. The realities of the corridor district kind of makes this district ridiculous. As well, Sam Graves and Blaine Luetkemeyer both live in this district. The population in the new 4th is 738858. The only split in it not already covered is two tracts in Camden County near Osage Beach (which are in the 9th district, instead of the 4th). Unfortunately for candidates, this district is huge, covers multiple TV markets. As well, we can only break it down by region. Buchanan and Platte should be Dem friendly, the Northwest Corner is more Republican, North Central Missouri is a fusion of co-ops and Republican voting, the Northeast corner of Missouri could be a good Dem area. The Northeast part of the district between Kirksville and Moberly could also produce a good showing for Dems. But a lot of this depends on who the candidates are, and if they’re great at exhaustive campaigning. 44 counties in one Congressional district might be a record for this state.

The 5th district (pop. 739048) is slightly more compact.

The temptation to put some of the Republican parts of Jackson County somewhere else is still there. But when the county is 60/40 blue, then it’s not a huge pain to have to put up with parts of EJC, or with Cass County. Cass County kind of got cut up in the quest to get within 100 of the ideal district population.

As for the 6th district (pop. 738852), it’ll be more competitive when it’s opened up by retirement. But it’s a challenge.

The district obviously adds Clay County. It loses a sliver of Jackson County, along with Webster County and parts of Cass County. The district also gains ground in Polk, Camden and Phelps Counties. Ideally, the combination of traditionally Democratic areas in West Central Missouri and Clay County could outmuscle the traditionally Republican lean of the rest of the district.

My apologies to Phelps Countians for the splitting of their county.

The 4th and 6th could switch numbers on this map so that Ike Skelton is the incumbent in the 4th, Sam Graves is the incumbent in the 6th, and they won’t have to order cards with new district numbers on them.

As for the 7th (pop. 738989).. it is what you think it is

It picks up the rest of Taney County, Webster County, a tract in Wright county, and Ozark County. It loses part of Polk County. It’s still very Republican.

How about the 8th district (pop. 739114)?

The eighth loses it’s portion of Taney County, loses part of Phelps and Wright counties, loses Ozark County. It picks up Southern Franklin and Southern Jefferson Counties, along with Crawford and Ste. Genevieve counties. As to how the 8th splits when a non-Emerson is on the ballot, i’m not particularly sure. But when the two biggest counties in the 8th are strong Republican (Cape and Butler), then that’s a lot of votes to start with.

When it comes to redistricting, barring a great compromise, the map will be drawn or approved by a panel of Federal Judges. But the Republican plan will be closer to 6/2 if they act as how they usually act. They’ll keep the 4th as is and wait. They’ll put Southern Clay County in the 5th. They’ll stack Democrats in the 1st. Russ Carnahan’s house will end up in a Republican 2nd or the 8th.

Basically.. redistricting will be very unpleasant this year unless something unexpected occurs.

But until we get the real numbers, we’re left to mess with an online application in an attempt to see how many counties can fit into one Congressional district. When the real numbers come out, then the computers hidden in the basement of the Capital will be put to work with all the electoral and socioeconomic stats to form the ‘perfect map’

Which will then be exposed within several cycles.

But it’s raining in the KC area. So why not have a diversion for a bit?

This is my Democratically friendly redistricting plan for GA, assuming Democrats are able to win back both the Governor and the State House. Basically what I did was recreate a lot of what the GA Democrats in the legislature did in the 2002 redistricting while compensating for population growth. The end result is what appears to be a 7-7 delegation but unfortunately I cannot seem to place 22 thousand people who are somewhere on my map unaccounted for but for a state of 10 million I think that’s alright for now. Further analysis below the jump.

North GA:

Middle GA:

South GA:

Metro Atlanta:

1st district:

Nearly 71 percent white, contains much of what it does now but takes in a good bit of GOP friendly territory in South Central GA and in order to shore up Barrow’s district loses Democratically friendly Liberty county to Barrow’s new district the 14th (basically the 12th from 2002-05).

2nd district:

Majority minority district in SW GA very similar to what it is now but takes a little friendly Democratic territory from the 3rd and 1st that wasn’t doing those Republicans any good.

3rd district:

A Republican district in Central/ South GA that stretches beyond the metro ATL boundaries in existence now to take in Republican areas of the 2nd and 8th as well as packing in Republicans in south Metro ATL to help out Marshall.

4th District:

Pretty similar to what we see now, dominated by Dekalb yet taking in some white GOP areas of SE Gwinnett to help out the newly Democratically friendly 7th district. Majority black but not as much as the current 4th.

5th District:

Majority black, yet like the 4th gentrification efforts are somewhat cutting down the margins once seen here as well but the new voters moving in are similarly friendly to Democrats. May elect a white Representative in a decade or less but very safe for John Lewis (D-Atlanta).

6th District:

As much as I wanted to mess with Tom “Obama hates bailout bankers” Price I decided to just shore up his GOP friendly north Metro Atlanta district. Close to 74 percent white and basically taking in all his familiar Ned Flander’s territory.

7th District:

This and the 14th are probably my most ambitious districts. Only 41.6 percent white making this now longer Linder territory. This would be a new open seat with significant numbers of blacks (33 percent) and also Hispanics and Asians (collectively equaling around 23 percent). This might seem unfeasible but eventually these growing minority groups in Gwinnett will be placed in a Democratic district.

8th District:

Oh man this would drive Republicans wanting to get rid of Marshall crazy. Only 50.5 white (this area of South Metro ATL is becoming much more minority concentrated). Some touch point continuity going on here but it had to be done to reach down into the black belt around Columbus and to connect the Metro and Middle GA parts of the district.

9th District:

Pretty much the same as before yet a tad bit whiter and more GOP friendly. I did by giving Barrow’s 14th highly Hispanic areas in downtown Gainesville. I think both Representatives in the 9th and 14th would appreciate this as this area will eventually be competitive for Democrats as the Hispanic population increases. Also had to give some territory to the 10th which is not growing as fast and without Athens needed some more territory.

10th District:

Basically take everything Democrats hate about the current 10th, 12th and to a lesser extent the 8th and put them into this district and voila, you’ve got yourself a very safe GOP district for Paul Broun. Takes out NE GA to give to the new 9th representative and most importantly gives Athens back to John Barrow in the 14th.

11th District:

Due to popular demand, a Cobb County resident will no longer represent NW GA as these areas are very different (metro versus rural). As far as making this any more Democratically friendly though that’s a negative as this district takes in basically half of west GA. My most contiguous district with no tentacles so enjoy you good government folks!

12th District:

Probably where Linder would wind up (this could be the 7th for all I care), 66 percent white, dominated by north Gwinnett and western Cobb county as well as fast growing South Forsyth county.

13th District:

A higher black percentage than today (49 percent versus 41 percent) this district is probably too safe and could stand to trade a little more territory with the new Democratic 7th but I am sure this would make David Scott happy.

14th district:

I probably messed up by making this district majority minority (46.4 percent white) but with the current white percentage at 52% that is easy to do. However, with a little more careful work this district could be majority white again by taking out the Hispanic majority precincts in Gainesville which was probably a result of my overly ambitious efforts.

Well that’s it. I am sure this wouldn’t pass mustard as is but a look at what could be if Democrats gained some major ground in 2010.

Thoughts? Questions? Sorry for the formatting errors.

• UT-Sen: Democrats nailed down a candidate in dark-red Utah, not a likely place for a pickup but somewhere we want to be standing by to clean up in case the Republican primary turns into an insane bloodbath: Sam Granato, the head of the state Liquor Control Board.

Speaking of which, a third challenger just got into the GOP primary against long-time incumbent Bob Bennett: businesswoman and activist Cherilyn Eagar, who’s never run for office before but seems connected to some of the fringier members of Utah’s legislature, such as state Senator Margaret Dayton, who praised Eagar in that: “She’s a very impressive woman in her looks, intelligence and presentation.” Eagar’s rationale is that, in her words, “Utah’s conservative principles are no longer being represented in the U.S. Senate and no conservative has entered this race,” which seems bizarre considering that AG Mark Shurtleff and former Utah County GOP chair Tim Bridgewater are already challenging the very conservative Bennett from the right. Eagar also offered up this very strange mix of literary allusions: “Gulliver has been tied down by socialist gnomes for many years, but he’s starting to wake up.”

• AZ-Gov: Arizona’s AG Terry Goddard is probably the Dems’ best chance to take back this seat, which just went to Republican ex-SoS Jan Brewer when Janet Napolitano vacated it (Brewer has not announced whether she’ll run for a full term). He recently stated that he “intends” to run for governor. (Arizona Republicans then tried to invoke Arizona’s resign-to-run law, which would require him to give up his AG job to become a governor’s candidate; so this weekend Goddard issued a lengthy explanation of why “intent” doesn’t make him a candidate.)

• NM-Gov: Lt. Gov. Diane Denish has been considered Bill Richardson’s heir apparent in 2010, but it seems like she may not get a free ride on the way to the nomination. Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez, according to his Facebook page, has formed an exploratory committee. Denish has a $1.7 million headstart on fundraising, though.

• MD-04: Rep. Donna Edwards, who won a surprise primary in 2008 against out-of-touch incumbent Al Wynn, but is facing some within-the-district misgivings from local Jewish leaders (apparently up to 15% of the active electorate in her district is Jewish). This turns mostly on her decision to vote ‘present’ on January’s resolution recognizing Israel’s right to defend itself and condemning Hamas. State Delegate Herman Taylor has been gauging support within the Jewish community for a primary challenge to Edwards. While this wouldn’t seem to be a dominant issue in this African-American-majority district, two successful primary challenges from the right in 2002 (Artur Davis over Earl Hilliard in AL-07 and Denise Majette over Cynthia McKinney in GA-04) focused largely on Israel policy.

• MD-06: Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, who turns 83 tomorrow, is often the source of open seat speculation. However, today he announced that he’ll be back for another term in his R+13 district in Maryland’s rural west.

• SC-04: As an occasionally sane Republican (who voted for the bailout and against the Surge) in an R+15 district that’s an evangelical hotbed, Rep. Bob Inglis seems vulnerable this year, as the revved-up base seems less and less tolerant of apostasy. State Sen. David Thomas announced he’s seriously thinking of challenging Inglis and will make his announcement within days; Solicitor (equivalent to DA) Trey Gowdy also just announced that he’s entering the race. They’ll join an already crowded field including businessmen Andrew Smart and Jim Lee and professor Christina Jeffrey. While Inglis looks poised to win against this fractured field, if he does it with less than 50%, he’s facing a one-on-one runoff.

• Gay marriage: The New York Senate is the only remaining obstacle to gay marriage in New York, and now state Senator Thomas Duane, prime mover of the legislation, says he now has the votes to get it passed (without naming names). Meanwhile, it’s not full marriage, but Nevada is poised to adopt domestic partnership. Over the weekend, both chambers of the legislature just overrode Governor Jim Gibbons’ veto of previously passed domestic partnership legislation (there was doubt whether it could clear the Assembly, where it passed by a bare 28-14 margin).

• Meta: Wow, that year went fast: it’s my one-year blogiversary on SSP’s front page. Thanks to David and James for taking an interest in my writing, and to all the readers and commenters as well.

Public Policy Polling (5/28-31, likely voters, 5/19-21 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 27 (20)

Terry McAuliffe (D): 24 (29)

Brian Moran (D): 22 (20)

Undecided: 26 (31)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Tom Jensen breaks down the factors that are currently benefiting Deeds:

Two developments in the race appear to have fueled the movement over the last week and a half:

-Deeds’ endorsement by the Washington Post has resulted in a significant increase in support in northern Virginia. He was polling at 11% there two weeks ago and that has more than doubled in the wake of the endorsement to 23%. With that region casting about 30% of the primary vote, more than half of his progress since the last poll has come there alone.

-McAuliffe has seen a decline in support in the Hampton Roads and greater Richmond areas since Brian Moran went on the airwaves with ads attacking him. He’s dropped from 34 to 23% in Richmond and from 33 to 25% in Hampton Roads.

Even still, PPP cautions that the race is anyone’s game: that block of undecideds is still pretty huge (26%), and even among voters who do have a preference, a large number of them (44%) say that they could still change their mind. McAuliffe’s favorables are by far the weakest in the Dem field (39-35, comapared to 48-13 for Deeds and 44-18 for Moran), but he’s currently launching a costly moneynuke in the vote-rich DC media market — something that the cash-strapped Moran and Deeds can’t compete with.

And speaking of Northern VA, SUSA has a NoVA-only poll showing Moran leading McAuliffe by 43-27, with Deeds checking in at 20%. That’s not far off from the Moran 36/McAuliffe 27/Deeds 23 split from PPP’s innards.

PPP will be releasing one final poll of this race on Sunday night (or Monday morning), so we’ll have one final chance to see if McAuliffe’s big-spending ways are having an impact.

(Discussion already underway in conspiracy‘s diary.)

Boom:

Two sources have confirmed that Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty will announce that he will not seek re-election in 2010.

The sources confirmed to WCCO-TV political reporter Pat Kessler that the announcement about Pawlenty’s future plans will include an announcement that he will not seek a third term.

The announcement is expected to be made at a 2 p.m. press conference.

The Democratic field for Governor is already absurdly large, and one wonders whether Pawlenty’s decision will inspire a few other fence sitters to take the plunge. (As an aside, I suppose this frees T-Paw up to dick around with the certification of the Senate election for Al Franken.)

Anyone have any ideas as to who the Republicans will nominate? A comebacker for ex-Rep. Jim Ramstad, perhaps?

(H/T: Ben Smith)